Hoops Rumors Originals

2019 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Portland Trail Blazers

Despite being swept out of the first round of the postseason in 2018, the Trail Blazers ran back virtually the same roster for the 2018/19 season and the team’s confidence in its core players paid dividends.

With a more favorable playoff draw in 2019, Portland won two series, earning a spot in the Western Conference Finals for the first time in nearly 20 years. The club’s success led to renewed faith in its core, including head coach Terry Stotts and president of basketball operations Neil Olshey, who both signed contract extensions.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Trail Blazers financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • With $126MM already committed to 10 players for 2019/20, the Trail Blazers project to be back in the tax next season unless they can cut costs a little or fill out their roster extremely cheaply. Their odds of creating cap room are extremely slim.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 1

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. If the Trail Blazers were to reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 5/20/19 – 5/26/19

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think the Celtics should focus on their young core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, etc., plus three first-round picks rather luring Anthony Davis? Remember they almost made it to NBA Finals last season even without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward? — Greg Dizon

A lot has changed at the top of the East in the past year. The Bucks added more shooting around Giannis Antetokounmpo and steamrolled the Celtics in the conference semifinals, the Raptors brought in Kawhi Leonard, who led them to their first NBA Finals appearance, and the Sixers traded for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to form one of the best starting fives in the league. Although more change is likely coming this summer, Boston can no longer count on building a contender around its young players, especially when all are coming off less-than-stellar seasons. Whether Irving leaves or not, the Celtics will need more elite talent to compete for the Eastern Conference crown, and Davis looks like the easiest piece to add.

What are the chances of a sign and trade of Irving? — MERCalomaniac, via Twitter

It’s always a possibility, but the teams rumored to be pursuing Irving — the Knicks, Nets, Clippers and Lakers — all have enough cap space to sign him outright. And most of those teams can either offer two max deals or are a roster tweak or two away from getting there. They may not see the need to send players to Boston when they can already fit Irving on the roster. The Celtics also need to be careful about taking back future salary. Their cap room will be limited if Al Horford opts into a $30.1MM salary for next season. In addition, Marcus Morris and Rozier will both be free agents and Brown will be eligible for an extension this summer. A sign-and-trade is probably the least likely outcome for Irving.

Will Carsen Edwards fall to the Sixers? — Kevin, via Twitter

Edwards is ranked 34th in the latest ESPN Top 100, so unless he has an outstanding performance in pre-draft workouts, he may be on the board not only for their first-round pick at No. 24, but also for their two early second-round selections. Edwards was great in the NBA tournament, but questions about his defense and size have kept him from rising up draft boards.

Community Shootaround: Kawhi Leonard

The Raptors took a franchise-altering risk last summer when they opted to trade for Kawhi Leonard. They’ll find out soon how much that gamble will pay off.

A year away from free agency, Leonard became available after he made it clear that he wouldn’t re-sign in San Antonio following a bitter dispute with Spurs management over the treatment of his quad injury. Leonard played just nine games last season and was meeting with his personal doctors in New York after the Spurs’ medical staff cleared him for action.

Toronto wasn’t on Leonard’s list of preferred locations, but the Raptors were ready to swing for the fences after years of disappointing playoff exits. They risked team chemistry by trading away DeMar DeRozan, a franchise cornerstone and Kyle Lowry‘s best friend, to obtain a player whose health and desire to stay with the organization beyond this season were both in question.

It didn’t take long for Leonard to resolve the first issue. He appeared in 60 games this season, and many of the ones he missed were for “load management” rather than injury. He performed at an All-Star level, averaging 26.6 points per game and reminding everyone why he was considered one of the best two-way players in the league.

Once the playoffs started, he raised his game even further. Coming into tonight, Leonard was averaging 31.4/8.4/3.6 in 17 games. Not only has he brought Toronto to its first-ever NBA Finals, he has become the team’s on-court leader and arguably the MVP of the postseason.

Much like the Thunder did last year with Paul George, the Raptors gambled that they could win over a star player by bringing him into their system and letting him experience success. While the partnership has worked wonderfully and Leonard is a beloved figure in Toronto, there’s still no guarantee it will be more than a one-year arrangement. Leonard has said little to nothing about his future plans, but there have been rumors for a long time that he wants to return home and play on the West Coast.

We want to get your opinion. Do you believe the Raptors have accomplished enough to make Leonard want to stay, or will he move on from Toronto when the offers start coming in this summer? Please leave your answers in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 5/18/19 – 5/25/19

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

Five Key Stories: 5/18/19 – 5/25/19

If you missed any of this past week’s biggest headlines from around the NBA, we’ve got you covered with our Week in Review. Here are some of the most noteworthy stories from the last seven days:

Magic Johnson went on the offensive and ripped the Lakers’ organization. Johnson said in an ESPN interview that GM Rob Pelinka backstabbed him by badmouthing him to other league executives. Johnson also revealed that he decided to step down from his post as president of basketball operations when owner Jeanie Buss wouldn’t let him fire then-coach Luke Walton during the season.

The Timberwolves removed the interim tag from Ryan Saunders and named him their head coach. Saunders had a losing record after replacing Tom Thibodeau but he formed a strong bond with star Karl-Anthony Towns and impressed new president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas during extensive talks. Many of the assistant coaches were not retained.

The league revealed its All-NBA Teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden led the way as the two unanimous selections for the First Team. Kevin Durant was relegated to the Second Team while teammate Stephen CurryPaul George and Nikola Jokic grabbed the other First Team spots. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker became eligible for super-max extensions while Bradley BealKlay Thompson and Nikola Vucevic failed to reach that status because they didn’t make the cut.

The league moved up the start of free agency to the evening of June 30. Instead of starting free agency at the stroke of midnight ET on the first day of July, negotiations can begin at 6 p.m. the previous night. The change, which was agreed upon by the league and the players’ union, will also allow teams to communicate and schedule meetings with free agents or their agents at 6 p.m. ET on June 29. Those meetings can’t take place before free agency officially opens on the evening of June 30.

The Trail Blazers handed coach Terry Stotts a two-year contract extension. The Blazers reached the conference finals despite the late-season loss of center Jusuf Nurkic and rewarded their coach for the accomplishment. Stotts is the fourth longest-tenured coach in the NBA.

Here are 10 more top headlines worth passing along this week:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Conference Finals

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the conference finals:

Patrick McCaw, Raptors, 23, SG (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $786K deal in 2019
McCaw’s season has been a head-scratcher. He leveraged his way out of Golden State, signed a non-guaranteed offer sheet with Cleveland, got cut loose shortly thereafter and then signed a minimum contract with Toronto. He may get his wish to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but no one will be knocking down his door on July 1. He suffered a thumb injury late in the regular season, was ineffective in some postseason appearances, and has missed the last couple of games for “personal reasons.” McCaw might not even find a guaranteed offer this summer.

George Hill, Bucks, 33, SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $57MM deal in 2017
Hill’s $18MM salary becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster July 1. The Bucks have too many free agent concerns to bring him back at that number, but Hill has reinforced that he’s a solid rotation player after a disappointing regular season. Hill averaged 14.2 PPG in the conference semis against Boston. Throwing out his Game 1 clunker against Toronto and he’s averaged 13.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 2.0 APG over the past four games, hitting some clutch baskets along the way. He’ll attract attention on the open market, though he’ll have to settle for less than his previous deal.

Alfonzo McKinnie, Warriors, 26, SF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.7MM deal in 2018
Seems like every role player that coach Steve Kerr has thrown out there in the postseason has provided some quality minutes. McKinnie certainly fits that description. He was getting here-and-there minutes, then became more valuable with Kevin Durant sidelined. He grabbed nine rebounds in 21 minutes in Game 3 against Portland, then contributed 12 points in the clinching overtime victory in Game 4. McKinnie has a non-guaranteed salary next year but it’s difficult to see him getting cut loose considering the Warriors need to surround their stars with low-cost options. He can be a restricted free agent in 2020 if he receives a qualifying offer.

Enes Kanter, Trail Blazers, 27, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $653K deal in 2019
Kanter rode the roller coaster during the playoffs. The Blazers would have never made it to the Western Conference finals without him in the wake of Jusuf Nurkic‘s injury. Following Game 1 against the Warriors though, Kanter saw limited minutes as coach Terry Stotts opted to ride stretch four Meyers Leonard. Kanter’s ability to put up numbers earned him a big contract with the Thunder — recall he was making $18.6MM this season before working out a buyout with the Knicks. But his defensive deficiencies are also apparent in today’s NBA. It will interesting to see how much executives value his positives on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Designated Veteran Extension History, Eligible Players

When the NBA and the Players’ Association introduced the Designated Veteran Extension in the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, it seemed aimed at helping teams keep their very best players.

The extra year and the slightly larger raises that teams can give to their own Bird Rights free agents already gave the home team a slight advantage over outside suitors. But allowing a player’s starting salary to begin at 35% of the cap rather than 30% if he meets the DVE performance criteria and re-signs with his own team made the difference between the two options even more significant.

Still, as Tim Bontemps of ESPN.com details, the Designated Veteran Extension – also known as the super-max – hasn’t necessarily worked as planned. Players like Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Davis have been willing to pass on super-max opportunities in the hopes of joining new teams. And teams like the Bulls and Kings have opted to trade their stars – Jimmy Butler and DeMarcus Cousins – rather than reckon with the possibility of committing super-max money to them.

In the view of NBPA executive director Michele Roberts, the introduction of the DVE may not have worked as anticipated for teams, but it also hasn’t negatively impacted those star players.

“I mean, the players that are eligible, frankly, are players that are going to get paid, and they’re going to have any number of alternatives,” Roberts told ESPN. “It hasn’t hurt them. It was something that they were able to secure and they were interested in getting it, and it was going to be a tremendous advantage in terms of just the amount of money.

“But I still don’t see a downside. The only downside is to the extent that people absolutely believed that it was a slam-dunk way to keep their guys. And it just isn’t. And if they doubted it, they can now take a look at Anthony [Davis] and see, ‘Oh, wow, there is no way.'”

Even if the Designated Veteran Extension hasn’t reduced player movement or helped teams keep their own stars, commissioner Adam Silver doesn’t think that means it hasn’t been an effective change. After all, knowing that George and Leonard weren’t interested in the super-max allowed the Pacers and Spurs to trade them in advance of their respective free agencies.

“Part of the goal in ‘early-ing’ up the discussion was that those players then wouldn’t reach the end of their contracts and, frankly, surprise teams by then announcing they were leaving,” Silver said last month. “The fact that a player left the market doesn’t mean it was a failure, because at least in those cases the teams got value.”

Silver acknowledges that “there’s still room for improvement” within the framework of the Designated Veteran Extension. The next round of super-max deals should help provide a clearer picture of how they’ll work long-term.

Four players signed these contracts in 2017, the first year they were available, but no players signed one in 2018. After this week’s All-NBA announcement, a handful of additional players gained eligibility, increasing the likelihood that we’ll see more Designated Veteran Extensions signed this year or next. Now it’s just a matter of waiting to see whether those deals are offered, and whether they’re accepted.

Here’s a breakdown of the players that have signed DVEs since the rule went into effect in 2017:

  1. Stephen Curry, Warriors (five years, $201,158,790; started in 2017/18)
    • Note: This was technically a free agent contract rather than an extension.
  2. Russell Westbrook, Thunder (five years, $206,794,070; started in 2018/19)
  3. James Harden, Rockets (four years, projected value of $170,912,000; starting in 2019/20)
  4. John Wall, Wizards (four years, projected value of $170,912,000; starting in 2019/20)

Here are the players who are eligible to sign a DVE this offseason:

  1. Kemba Walker, Hornets (five years, projected value of $221,270,000; starting in 2019/20)
    • Note: This would technically be a free agent contract rather than an extension.
  2. Anthony Davis, Pelicans (five years, projected value of $235,480,000; starting in 2020/21)
  3. Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers (four years, projected value of $191,296,000; starting in 2021/22)

And here are the players who are eligible to sign a DVE in 2020:

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (five years, projected value of $247,660,000; starting in 2021/22)
  2. Rudy Gobert, Jazz (five years, projected value of $247,660,000; starting in 2021/22)

Joel Embiid (Sixers) is probably the next star to keep an eye on in terms of super-max eligibility. If he earns a spot on an All-NBA team in 2019/20, he’ll become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension during the 2021 offeason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

Things seemed to be on the upswing for the Timberwolves in 2017/18, when the team snapped a 13-year postseason drought, winning 47 games and winning a playoff game for the first time since 2004. However, that positive momentum came to a halt last fall, when Jimmy Butler‘s trade demand disrupted and derailed the Wolves’ season before it began.

Butler was eventually traded to Philadelphia, but Minnesota was never really in the playoff hunt in 2018/19, and Tom Thibodeau‘s handling of the Butler saga ultimately led to his dismissal. Heading into the 2019 offseason, the Wolves now employ a new president of basketball operations (Gersson Rosas) and a new permanent head coach (Ryan Saunders) as the organization looks to get back on track and resume contending for the postseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Which players will Gersson Rosas view as keepers?

When a team overhauls its front office, that doesn’t necessarily mean a roster overhaul will follow. But executives generally have stronger attachments to players that they’ve drafted, signed, or traded for than the ones they’ve inherited.

This will be the first time Rosas has decision-making power in an NBA front office. While his long stint in Houston’s front office is somewhat instructive, we’ll be learning for the first time in the next year or two what sort of players he likes, and which Timberwolves players fit that bill.

The front office changes in Minnesota are unlikely to impact someone like Karl-Anthony Towns, who would be a franchise cornerstone no matter who is running the team. But how invested will Rosas be in players like Robert Covington and Dario Saric? They were the key assets the team received in return for Butler last fall and would still have positive trade value if Rosas isn’t attached to them. Assuming he likes them, they could become long-term building blocks for the Timberwolves.

Rosas’ evaluation of the players on his new roster will impact young prospects under contract (like Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop) and veteran free agents (such as Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson) alike, so it should be an interesting summer in Minnesota as Rosas gets his first opportunity to oversee a series of roster moves.

Read more

Poll: Which Team Will Win Bucks/Raptors Series?

When we asked for conference finals predictions 10 days ago, before each series had gotten underway, the Bucks were the clear choice in the Eastern Conference over the Raptors. In that poll, Milwaukee received just over 64% of the vote, while Toronto received less than 36%.

Now, with the series tied at two games apiece, the series is essentially in the same place it was then — it’s simply a best-of-three instead of a best-of-seven. We also have four games worth of data at our disposal, even if it’s not clear what conclusions we should – or can – draw from that data.

Are the Bucks the team we saw in Game 2, when they dominated the Raptors on both ends of the court en route to a 22-point win? Giannis Antetokounmpo posted 30 points and 17 rebounds in that contest, but he got plenty of help from his supporting cast, with Ersan Ilyasova, Nikola Mirotic, Malcolm Brogdon, George Hill, and Khris Middleton all scoring double-digit points.

The Raptors, meanwhile, got 31 points from Kawhi Leonard in that game, but only two other players – Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell – scored more than eight.

Since the series shifted back to Toronto though, the Bucks’ stars and role players alike struggled with consistency, with no Milwaukee players stringing together two consecutive great games. It was the Raptors’ depth, on the other hand, that thrived in Game 4, as the team cruised to a 120-102 victory despite getting only 19 points out of Leonard.

With the series back in Milwaukee tonight, the Bucks will be looking to rebound, and the odds are in their favor — they haven’t lost three straight games all season. Additionally, Leonard looks like he’s favoring a leg injury, and Lowry is still battling a left hand issue.

Still, Lowry has played through his injury and looks as effective as ever, while Leonard’s defense on Antetokounmpo has made the MVP candidate look uncomfortable. Giannis will need more help from struggling point guard Eric Bledsoe and other role players to advance.

What do you think? With the Eastern Conference Finals all tied up at 2-2, which team do you expect to win the series and represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Denver Nuggets

After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2018, the Nuggets expressed confidence in their core by bringing back virtually the same group, and that bet paid off to the tune of 54 regular-season victories, the No. 2 seed in the West, and the club’s first playoff series win since 2009. The Nuggets will count on continued improvement from some of their young players going forward, but the team may also have a little flexibility to add more reinforcements.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Cap room projection w/Millsap: $0
  • There are few wild cards on the Nuggets’ books this offseason, but Millsap is a big one. Even if his $30MM option for 2019/20 is declined – which is a safe bet – re-signing him to a more modest deal would likely eat up any available cap room and make Denver an over-the-cap team. In that scenario, the Nuggets would have the mid-level ($9.25MM) and bi-annual ($3.62MM) exceptions available, along with a series of trade exceptions, detailed below.
  • Cap room projection w/o Millsap: $17MM
  • On the other hand, if Millsap is renounced, the team could create up to about $17MM in space without shedding any other salaries. That’s not enough to contend for maximum-salary free agents, but the players a notch or two below that tier could be within reach.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $12,800,562 (expires 7/8/19)
  • Trade exception: $13,764,045 (expires 7/15/19)
  • Trade exception: $5,919,961 (7/15/19)
  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 4

Footnotes

  1. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  2. Because Lydon’s fourth-year rookie scale option was declined, the Nuggets are ineligible to offer him a starting salary greater than his cap hold.
  3. The cap hold for Jefferson remains on the Nuggets’ books because he hasn’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. In the event the Nuggets use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions, plus their trade exceptions, and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders, ESPN.com, and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.