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Community Shootaround: Better Match-Up For Bucks?

The Eastern Conference Finals are halfway set, with the No. 1 seed Bucks set to face the winner of the Raptors/Sixers series. And while the Bucks ended up making quick work of the Celtics after losing Game 1 of that series, the match-up against Toronto or Philadelphia figures to be much more difficult.

The series between the Raptors and Sixers is now tied 3-3, and both teams have shown promise as a potential NBA Finals participant during stretches this postseason. Kawhi Leonard is having an all-time great postseason, while both Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid (when ostensibly healthy) have played great games.

Milwaukee took two of three contests from the Sixers this season, splitting the match-ups in Wisconsin and winning in Philly, while the Raptors lost their regular season series to the Bucks 3-1 (split in Milwaukee with the Bucks winning both contests in Toronto).

So, based on the above and any other factors you may consider, which match-up do you think would be the most compelling? Would either of the series go the full seven games? Could there be a sweep? Let us know what you think in the comments.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Brooklyn Nets

A long, challenging rebuild began to pay dividends for the Nets in 2018/19, as the team finished sixth in the Eastern Conference, returning to the postseason for the first time since 2015.

With promising young players like Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Rodions Kurucs still on rookie deals and reliable contributors like Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris also locked up for next season, Brooklyn is set up well for the future. But the Nets will have to answer two crucial questions this summer: Will they invest big money in D’Angelo Russell, and will they be able to land a star in free agency?

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Standard cap room projection: $30.4MM
  • For all the talk of the Nets being a player for a maximum-salary free agent, they’d have to shed some money to create enough room for one. This projection takes into account their seven guaranteed salaries, Russell’s cap hold, and the cap holds for their two first-round picks.
  • More aggressive cap room projection: $50MM
  • If the Nets want to open up more space, waiving-and-stretching Crabbe would be one option, but it might make more sense to trade him, using one of their first-round picks as a sweetener to convince a team to take on his contract. This projection assumes the Nets trade Crabbe along with the No. 17 overall pick without taking back any salary.
  • Other scenarios:
    • The most aggressive scenario I can envision for the Nets would involve trading Crabbe and both of their two first-round picks while also renouncing Russell’s cap hold. That’s probably not a likely outcome, but it would get Brooklyn all the way up to $71.3MM in space, enough for two maximum contracts.
    • If the Nets were to retain their first-round picks and Russell’s cap hold and simply waived-and-stretched Crabbe, their cap room would increase from $30.4MM (our initial projection) to $41.8MM. This would be the simplest way to create a max slot if the team doesn’t want to sacrifice a first-round pick and doesn’t mind spreading out Crabbe’s salary across three years.
    • Attaching their No. 27 pick to Crabbe in a trade while retaining Russell’s cap hold and their No. 17 pick would leave the Nets with $49MM in cap room.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Napier’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Graham’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Nets remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: What Went Wrong With The Celtics?

“I did a bad job,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters after his team was emphatically eliminated by Milwaukee tonight with a 25-point loss in Game 5. “I’ll do a lot of deep dives into how to be better.”

If Stevens was a problem this year, he certainly wasn’t the only one in Boston. A year that began with the Celtics as clear favorites to win the East ended in a non-competitive effort with the season on the line.

“I’ve been a coach for 12 years and we let go of the rope, and cracked the rope, probably more than we should have,” Stevens says in the rest of the quote tweeted by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. “As far as any year I’ve been a coach, it’s been the most trying.”

Chemistry issues were the main problem in Boston, causing several players to say they didn’t feel like everyone was on the same page. Marcus Morris proclaimed in February that the season “just hasn’t been fun for a long time.” Kyrie Irving complained numerous times about the difficulty of being a leader on a young team, even reaching out to LeBron James to apologize for his actions when he was a young player in Cleveland.

Players unwilling to accept their roles seemed to be at the heart of the Celtics’ misery. With Irving and Gordon Hayward both sidelined by injuries last year, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier stepped up to lead the team to the conference finals. The theory was that the Celtics would be much better with Irving and Hayward both back, but it turned into a season-long chore to make the pieces fit.

Another concern is that too many players may have had their eyes on the future. Irving’s next stop has been a topic of speculation as he slowly stepped back from a preseason promise to re-sign in Boston. The idea that the team could pay him and Rozier after giving big money to Marcus Smart has always seemed doubtful. Then there’s the matter of Anthony Davis, whom the Celtics are expected to aggressively pursue this summer. Trade rumors may have had the same effect on Boston’s locker room as it did on the Lakers’.

We want to get your input. Why do you think the Celtics underachieved this season? Please leave your responses in the space below.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks entered the 2018/19 season facing some major questions. Did they pick the right head coach when they hired Lloyd Pierce to replace Mike Budenholzer? Was it the right choice to give up on Dennis Schroder? Did they make a mistake passing on an opportunity to draft Luka Doncic by moving down for Trae Young?

While it’s probably premature to say that the team’s ’18/19 showing definitively answered all those questions, they’re at least much less pressing heading into the 2019 offseason. Pierce had a solid first year as the young, run-and-gun Hawks began to form their own identity. And Atlanta didn’t miss Schroder as Young gave Doncic a serious run for Rookie of the Year honors.

There’s still a long way to go in the rebuild, but the Hawks certainly seem pointed in the right direction. Now, they have the opportunity to take another step or two toward contention with this offseason’s moves.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How aggressive will the Hawks be in free agency?

As we outlined in our look at Atlanta’s cap situation, the team can expect to have over $40MM in cap room at its disposal this summer. That’s more than enough to sign… well, any free agent available.

It’s probably not realistic to expect a star like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard to choose the Hawks in free agency, but a February report indicated that the franchise planned to be aggressive in pursuing that sort of player in the hopes of at least getting a meeting. With a young nucleus already in place, along with an upgraded arena and practice facility, the Hawks could make a decent pitch.

More recently though, general manager Travis Schlenk suggested that the Hawks are more likely to take a similar approach to free agency that they did a year ago, waiting out the market and looking for discounts in the second or third wave of signings.

Does that mean that Atlanta recognizes it won’t get an audience with those top-tier players? Or does Schlenk simply believe it’s too early in the rebuilding process to attempt that sort of splash? Either way, at this point, it would be surprising if the Hawks pursue a star free agent, and even more surprising if they land one.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: San Antonio Spurs

After a tumultuous offseason that included the departures of three longtime core players – Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker – the revamped Spurs did what they always do and earned a playoff spot for the 22nd consecutive year. The current roster may not have the same upside as the title-winning squads led by Tim Duncan, but with Derrick White on the rise and Dejounte Murray on the mend, there’s still room for San Antonio to improve.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • Barring a cost-cutting move or two, the Spurs project to have $103.8MM on their books for 11 guaranteed salaries plus two first-round picks. Working as an over-the-cap team and retaining their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions makes more sense than renouncing those exceptions for a mere $5.2MM in potential cap room. If they want to re-sign Gay, going under the cap becomes even less realistic.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Milutinov was the 26th overall pick in the 2015 draft. His cap hold (the equivalent to the 26th overall pick in the 2019 draft) will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2019/20.
  2. Lauvergne’s, Costello’s, and Hilliard’s cap holds remain on the Spurs’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Spurs risk going into the tax, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Kyrie Irving’s Future

Three of the NBA’s four conference semifinals appear very much up in the air, as they head into their respective Game Fives all tied up at 2-2. However, with a second consecutive resounding road victory over the Celtics on Monday, the Bucks took a 3-1 lead and now have up to three chances to end Boston’s season.

If the Bucks can finish off the series at home in Game Five, Monday’s loss might be the last time that fans ever see Irving wear a Celtics uniform in Boston. And if that’s the case, then it wasn’t a particularly memorable end to a short-lived era.

As Jay King of The Athletic details, Irving headed to the Celtics’ locker room before the game was officially over on Monday, with fans in Boston booing the club’s second straight home dud. After the game, Irving bristled when he was asked about his shooting woes (he’s 19-of-62 in the team’s last three games), as Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston writes.

“Who cares?” Irving said of his slump. “I’m a basketball player. Prepare the right way. Like I said, it’s a little different when your rhythm is challenged every play down. You’re being picked up full court. They’re doing things to test you. The expectations on me are going to be sky high.

“I try to utilize their aggression against them and still put my teammates in a great position, while still being aggressive. I’m trying to do it all. For me, the 22 shots, I should have shot 30. I’m that great of a shooter.”

While Irving isn’t necessarily wrong, his defiant attitude with the Celtics on the brink may not be the best look, according to Forsberg, who suggests that Boston’s star point guard probably should’ve expressed more frustration and disappointment with himself.

A second-round exit looks like a near certainty for the C’s, in which case Irving’s upcoming free agency will be more interesting than ever. Although he vowed before the season that he intended to stick around long-term, Irving backtracked on that promise during a drama-filled season, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be eager to re-up with Boston after what has been a disappointing year. The possibility of an Anthony Davis trade could entice him to stay, but that’s no certainty.

Appearing on ESPN’s “Get Up” this morning, analyst Jalen Rose declared that Irving is “done in Boston,” adding that his teammates will probably “help him pack,” since they won’t mind seeing him go (video link).

What do you think? Is it premature to assume Irving will sign elsewhere in free agency, or do you agree with Rose that we’re seeing his last games as a Celtic?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Orlando Magic

The 2018/19 season was widely expected to be a rebuilding season for the Magic, and the team even made the ultimate rebuilding at the move at the trade deadline, acquiring injured prospect Markelle Fultz. However, an All-Star performance from Nikola Vucevic and the eighth-best defense in the NBA helped buoy Orlando to a playoff spot.

Now, the team will have to decide whether to try to build on that success by re-signing key contributors like Vucevic and Terrence Ross, or whether to pivot to a full-fledged youth movement.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • This projection assumes that the Magic keep either Vucevic’s or Ross’ cap hold on their books in an attempt to re-sign them. Retaining even one of those holds would make Orlando an over-the-cap team.
  • If the Magic let both of their top free agents walk, there’s a path to possible cap room. Waiving all their non-guaranteed contracts and renouncing their free agents could create as much as about $19.4MM in space. I’m not sure that’s a likely scenario though. I expect the Magic to try to re-sign at least one of Vucevic or Ross, and even if they don’t, bringing back less expensive players like Iwundu and Birch would also cut into that projected room.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 4

Footnotes

  1. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  2. Vazquez was the 11th overall pick in the 2005 draft. His cap hold (the equivalent to the 11th overall pick in the 2019 draft) will remain on the Magic’s books unless the team receives permission to remove it, ensuring Vazquez won’t be signed in 2019/20.
  3. Afflalo’s and Speights’ cap holds remain on the Magic’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. In the event the Magic use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

After making the playoffs 15 of 16 times from 2001-16, the Mavericks have now missed out on the postseason for three straight years, failing to surpass 33 wins in a single season during that stretch.

Having tried in vain to build one more contending team during Dirk Nowitzki‘s twilight years, the Mavs switched gears in 2018/19 and began looking ahead to the future. That meant moving up in the draft to nab potential franchise player Luka Doncic and then surrendering a few more assets – and taking on some unwanted contracts – to acquire a potential long-term running mate for Doncic (Kristaps Porzingis) at the trade deadline.

The Mavs still have plenty of work to do on the rest of their roster, but with a pair of potential stars in the mix, the organization no longer feels like it’s treading water in the same way it did during many of Nowitzki’s final few seasons.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will Kristaps Porzingis’ new contract look like?

A healthy, scandal-free version of Porzingis would likely receive a maximum salary contract from just about any team capable of offering him one as a restricted free agent. That isn’t the version the Mavericks have though.

A torn ACL has sidelined Porzingis for nearly a season and a half. He hasn’t appeared in an NBA game since February 6, 2018, and it’s not as if he was a paragon of health before that injury — he missed 10 games in his rookie year and 16 more in his sophomore season. There’s no indication that he won’t be back to 100% for the start of the 2019/20 campaign, but that injury history is still concerning for a 7’3″ big man.

On top of that, Porzingis is facing a rape accusation related to an encounter that allegedly occurred during his time with the Knicks. The timeline for that case remains unclear, and the Mavs will have to be extra cautious as they navigate the situation after dealing with allegations of sexual misconduct within their workplace a year ago.

While it’s hard to predict how those allegations will impact contract negotiations this summer, Joel Embiid‘s deal with the Sixers could at least provide a framework for how to handle Porzingis’ injury history.

Embiid’s five-year, maximum salary extension with Philadelphia was worth the 25% max, and could have increased to the 30% max if he had earned First Team All-NBA honors in 2018. However, the deal also contained language that would have made future salaries non-guaranteed if Embiid suffered another major injury related to one of his previous health problems. So far, that deal has worked out for both sides, so perhaps the Mavs and Porzingis will explore a similar arrangement.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Los Angeles Clippers

After trading away Chris Paul in the summer of 2017 and Blake Griffin at the 2018 trade deadline, the Clippers moved leading scorer Tobias Harris at 2019’s deadline. Somehow, the club looked better than ever after the exodus of its stars, posting a 18-8 record down the stretch and securing a playoff spot. While Los Angeles’ playoff run was brief, the team notched a pair of impressive victories over the Warriors before being eliminated, and now heads into the offseason well positioned to land a star.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Clippers financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $56.5MM
  • This projection assumes that the Clippers retain their six players on guaranteed contracts and keep Zubac’s cap hold on their books. Hanging onto any other players would reduce this figure.
  • On the other hand, if the Clips were able to trade Gallinari without taking back any salary, they could keep Zubac and their other five guaranteed contracts and increase their cap projection to $78.2MM. That would be more than enough space for two maximum salary free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Thornwell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 20.
  2. Wallace’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($300K) after September 12.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Clippers remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000), the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000), and three trade exceptions (their most valuable TPE is worth $9,800,000 and expires on 2/6/20).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Detroit Pistons

The Pistons‘ first full season with Blake Griffin on the roster and Dwane Casey on the sidelines was a relative success, as the team fought its way back into the postseason after a two-year absence. Of course, a No. 8 seed and a first-round sweep at the hands of the Bucks showed that Detroit still has a ways to go to join the upper echelon of the East, and the club will have limited resources to upgrade its roster this summer.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pistons financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • The Pistons would have to make major cost-cutting moves to create cap room, which is unlikely. The good news is that, taking into account nine players on guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for their first-round pick, they’re still about $16.7MM away from the projected tax line, so using the full mid-level exception is viable.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $2,500,000 (expires 2/6/20)
  • Trade exception: $1,140,682 (expires 2/7/20)
  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Mykhailiuk’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.
  2. Nelson’s cap hold remains on the Pistons’ books because he hasn’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Pistons are at risk of going into tax territory, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.