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Community Shootaround: Rockets-Warriors Series

Entering the season, the Rockets loomed as the biggest threat to a Warriors three-peat. Their Western Conference Finals matchup last season went the distance and Houston might have knocked off Golden State if Chris Paul didn’t pull his hamstring in Game 5.

Houston finished with the fourth-best record in the West this season, but as the playoffs approached, nothing changed. With all due respect to the Nuggets and Trail Blazers, the Rockets still looked like the only team capable of sending Golden State home early.

With Game 3 of the series coming up on Saturday night, Golden State can already start thinking about ordering more championship rings. The Warriors won the first two games on their home court behind Kevin Durant, who scored 35 points in the controversial 104-100 Game 1 victory and 29 more in the 115-109 Game 2 triumph.

The opener was filled with beefs about the officiating, with both sides complaining about calls and non-calls. Paul was fortunate not to be suspended for bumping an official.

Houston’s chances of winning Game 2 on Tuesday were hampered by James Harden‘s eye issues after he got poked by Draymond Green. Harden still managed to score 29 points with blurred vision, but it wasn’t enough to overcame the Rockets’ 18 turnovers, which led to 24 Golden State points.

Now the series shifts to Houston and the pressure is on the Rockets to hold serve. The extra days between Games 2 and 3 have helped Harden, who is expected to play. All of the Rockets’ other regulars are healthy and coach Mike D’Antoni has had plenty of time to ponder adjustments. But the bottom line is Houston now must beat Golden State four times in five games.

That leads us to our question of the day: Can the Rockets come back and win their series with the Warriors or have they already dug too deep of a hole?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Five 2019/20 Player Option Decisions To Watch

As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported this morning, Nets guard Allen Crabbe became the latest veteran to exercise a player option for the 2019/20 season. Crabbe is one of six players who has opted into the final year of his contract since the regular season ended, joining Jeff Teague, Dwight Howard, Kent Bazemore, C.J. Miles, and Bismack Biyombo.

[RELATED: Player Option Decisions For 2019/20]

That group of players picking up their options figures to grow in the coming weeks. Marvin Williams has already indicated he’ll opt in, and guys like Hassan Whiteside ($27.1MM), Tyler Johnson ($19.2MM), and Patrick Patterson ($5.7MM), among others, figure to do so too.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a handful of star players who are locks to opt out. All year, we’ve talked about Kevin Durant ($31.5MM), Kawhi Leonard ($21.3MM), Kyrie Irving ($21.3MM), Jimmy Butler ($19.8MM), and Khris Middleton ($13MM) as if they’re free-agents-to-be, since it wouldn’t make sense for them to pick up their player options instead of securing more lucrative, longer-term deals in free agency.

Not all of the players with 2019/20 options are facing easy decisions though. In some cases, it’s not entirely clear yet whether or not those options will be exercised.

Let’s take a closer look at several of the player option decisions that will be worth monitoring before free agency officially gets underway:

  1. Al Horford, Celtics ($30,123,015): Only a handful of NBA players earn salaries in excess of $30MM, and on the surface, it doesn’t seem like Horford necessarily belongs in that group — he’ll turn 33 in June, battled nagging injuries this season, and put up relatively modest numbers for a starting center (13.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.2 APG). However, his performance in the postseason has shown once again why Horford is so valuable to the Celtics. His versatility and high basketball IQ makes him one of the few players capable of slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo. And besides being a linchpin on defense, he’s a tremendous weapon in the pick-and-pop game on offense. If he were to opt out, he wouldn’t get $30MM per year on a long-term deal, but it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see him get, say, $20MM annually on a three-year contract. That could be a win for both him and the cap-strapped Celtics.
  2. Jonas Valanciunas, Grizzlies ($17,617,976): Valanciunas doesn’t have the same sort of hidden value as Horford – or as pricey an option – but he’ll face a similar dilemma. Does it make more sense to pick up a player option that locks in a favorable one-year salary or to opt out to secure a longer-term deal with a higher total value? Valanciunas was probably the most important asset the Grizzlies acquired in their trade of longtime franchise center Marc Gasol, so I think they’d be willing to invest long term in the former lottery pick.
  3. Marc Gasol, Raptors ($25,595,700): Like Horford, Gasol’s value on the court extends beyond his numbers — particularly the ones he has put up since his trade to Toronto. Plus, if he believes Kawhi Leonard will leave the Raptors in free agency, it might make sense for Gasol to look for the exit ramp as well by declining this option and trying to secure one last multiyear deal. On the other hand, at age 34, Gasol might have trouble exceeding his option salary even over the span of a new two-year contract. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t opt in and force the Raptors to make the decision on what to do with his expiring deal.
  4. James Ennis, Sixers ($1,845,301): Ennis signed a minimum salary contract with the Rockets last summer, then was traded to Philadelphia in a salary-dump deal at the deadline. Despite that unflattering series of events, he’s now playing a key rotation role for the Sixers in the postseason and has made 57.1% of his shots in seven playoff games, including a staggering 82.6% of his two-pointers. Ostensibly a three-and-D wing, Ennis should have no problem securing offers on the open market this summer, so it would probably be in his best interest to opt out to see if he can do better than the minimum. The same thinking applies to Thunder center Nerlens Noel, another veteran who has a minimum salary player option for 2019/20.
  5. Dwight Powell, Mavericks ($10,259,375): Powell enjoyed his best season in 2018/19, recording 10.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and a .597 FG% in a part-time role for the Mavericks. His $10MM+ option looks fairly player-friendly for someone who has never averaged more than 21.6 MPG, but team owner Mark Cuban suggested in a radio appearance last month that Dallas plans to extend Powell for multiple seasons. If he knows that sort of Mavs offer will await him in free agency, Powell could have reason to opt out (opting in and signing an extension would also be a possibility).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Los Angeles Lakers

After years of building through the draft and steadily improving their record, adding LeBron James to the mix was supposed to be the move that pushed the Lakers back into the playoffs. Early returns were positive, as the team held a top-four seed in the West through Christmas, but things took a sharp downturn from there. LeBron’s groin injury, a series of leaked Anthony Davis trade offers, and Magic Johnson‘s abrupt resignation from his president of basketball operations role has left the franchise in a state of a flux entering a crucial summer.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Lakers financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $32.5MM
  • There aren’t many complicating factors we have to consider when projecting the Lakers’ cap room, since none of their pending free agents are players who absolutely must be retained. If we account for their seven players on guaranteed contracts and the cap hold for their first-round pick, that leaves about $32.5MM in cap room, assuming they renounce all their FAs-to-be and waive Jones. That wouldn’t be quite enough space for a maximum salary free agent, so the Lakers would have to make an additional move to shed salary.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 2

Footnotes

  1. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Lakers remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000), the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000), and their lone remaining trade exception ($1,544,951; expires 2/7/20).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

No team dropped off more significantly from 2017/18 to 2018/19 than the Cavaliers, who went from winning 50 regular season games and three playoff series to posting a dismal 19-63 mark and firing their head coach.

That drop-off was to be expected — no other team lost a player of LeBron James‘ caliber last summer, after all. Still, it was a jarring reminder that the post-LeBron era in Cleveland will be a challenging one, as the roster James left behind will have to be retooled – or rebuilt entirely – before it’s capable of contending again.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What’s the timeline for the Cavaliers’ rebuild?

Although the Cavaliers jettisoned several of their veteran players in trades over the last year, many high-priced vets remain on the books for one more season. Beyond 2019/20, only Kevin Love and Larry Nance have guaranteed salaries (Cedi Osman will be a restricted free agent that summer, and the club holds options on Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic).

The Cavaliers – whose first-round pick this spring can’t fall lower than No. 6 – could be in position to snag a potential franchise player like Zion Williamson or Ja Morant with some luck in the lottery. Throw in a pretty clean cap sheet starting in 2020 and there’s a blueprint for the team pushing its way back into the playoff picture in the East within the next couple years.

Still, the Cavs’ roster isn’t exactly loaded with young talent yet, and it’s not as if star free agents will be clamoring to sign with Cleveland in the summer of 2020, whether or not the team has cap room. If the organization is serious about building a roster capable of sustained success, it makes more sense to be patient than to try to get back to the postseason as soon as possible.

The Cavs’ long-term priorities will influence their moves this summer. If they recognize that it might be a few more years before legit contention is a possibility again, taking on bad-money contracts that extend beyond the 2019/20 season could be the right approach — even if those deals limit their cap flexibility for an extra year or two.Read more

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Charlotte Hornets

Despite having had Kemba Walker under contract at a rate of $12MM annually for the last four years, the Hornets were unable to build a legit contender around him, loading their cap with long-term, oversized contracts for role players. Now, after another season in the lottery, the Hornets enter the summer with many of those pricey contracts still on their books and Walker headed for unrestricted free agency.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • If Williams or Kidd-Gilchrist unexpectedly opt out, perhaps the Hornets could carve out a little cap room. But assuming both players return, Charlotte would only be able to get up to about $8.2MM in cap room by renouncing all their free agents and waiving all their players on non-guaranteed contracts. The mid-level exception will be worth more than that, so the Hornets figure to just remain over the cap.
  • Should the Hornets re-sign Walker to a maximum salary contract, they’ll likely have to shed a little salary to stay out of tax territory.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $7,819,725 (expires 7/6/19)
  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Parker’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 4.
  2. Hernangomez’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 28.
  3. Bacon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  4. Roberts’ and Paige’s cap holds remain on the Hornets’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Hornets are at risk of going into tax territory, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: NBA Finals Match-Up

The NBA’s conference semifinals are underway and that means we’re down to eight teams as the Warriors, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Bucks, Raptors, Sixers, and Celtics each won their first-round series. The Warriors have taken control of their series with a 2-0 lead but the remaining series are all tied up at 1-1 and the Rockets are heading home for games 3 and 4. As such, every club still has a realistic shot of moving forward to the conference finals.

As everyone is well aware, the Warriors are the two-time defending NBA champions and winners of three of the last four. They are also the prohibitive favorites again this season and perhaps the one team that could be classified as league villains, while the other three Western Conference teams haven’t been to an NBA Finals since the Rockets in 1995.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers and Heat (via LeBron James) have controlled the Eastern Conference playoffs for the last decade or so, with Milwaukee and Toronto never having won the East and Philadelphia and Boston not having been conference champions since 2001 and 2010, respectively.

With that all said, there are certain to be a bevy of opinions on what would be the best finals match-up, so we’re asking you that very question. Which NBA Finals match-up do you want to see? Is that the match-up you expect as well? Let us know what you think in the comments.

Poll: Which Series Is Most Likely To Go Seven Games?

Through two games apiece, the Eastern Conference Semifinals are living up to their billing as heavyweight bouts, with each series featuring one team delivering a strong blow in Game One before taking a counter-punch in Game Two.

In Toronto, the Raptors looked dominant against the Sixers in the first game of the series, a rarity for a franchise that had previously been 2-14 in Game Ones. However, strong showings from Jimmy Butler and the bench – as well as some savvy defensive adjustments – allowed Philadelphia to even up the series on Monday in a old-school 94-89 slugfest. While the 76ers probably wouldn’t mind seeing more from Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on offense, the duo’s defense helped the club reclaim home court advantage.

On the other side of the Eastern bracket, the Bucks came out flat in their first game vs. the Celtics, with Giannis Antetokounmpo submitting one of his worst performances of the year in a blowout loss. However, a massive third-quarter run in Game Two allowed Milwaukee to return the favor, evening the series at 1-1 as its heads to Boston. Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart loom as potential X-factors in that series if they can return from their respective injuries.

Out West, a much-hyped Warriors/Rockets showdown has been marred to some extent by officiating complaints and health issues so far, but Stephen Curry and James Harden both managed to return from ugly-looking injuries in Game Two and will hopefully be okay going forward. Golden State has taken a 2-0 lead in a rematch of last year’s Western Finals, with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green firing on all cylinders, so the pressure will be on Houston to win Game Three to make it a series.

Finally, the Trail Blazers and Nuggets are the only teams that have squared off just once so far in the second round. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 39 points in an offensive shootout, but Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 60 of their own to lead Denver to a Game One victory. After witnessing Lillard’s first round heroics, we certainly can’t rule out Portland in this series yet, but that first game showed that Jokic will be a major problem for the Blazers’ frontcourt.

What do you think? Based on what you’ve seen from these series so far, which one do you think is the best bet to go seven games? Are you expecting more than one long series, or are there some that look more one-sided than you may have anticipated?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: New Orleans Pelicans

Coming off an impressive 2017/18 season in which they advanced to the Western Semifinals, the Pelicans had hopes of contending in 2018/19. Instead, New Orleans played sub-.500 ball in the first half and saw things go from bad to worse when Anthony Davis made a public trade request in January. Now, new head of basketball operations David Griffin will be tasked with determining the next move in the Davis saga, which will have significant impact on the future of the franchise.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $16MM
  • There are a lot of wild cards at play in the Pelicans’ offseason. Davis’ future is the biggest one, but there are a number of free agents or players on non-guaranteed salaries on the roster whose fates are unclear too. Our projection assumes the Pelicans keep their four players with fully guaranteed salaries, plus Jackson, Okafor, and Wood, who all have reasonable contracts.
  • New Orleans’ actual summer may – and probably will – end up playing out much differently. If the Pelicans want to re-sign Randle and/or some other free agents, they might not use cap room at all. On the other hand, if the Pels trade Davis for a pick-heavy package and don’t take back a ton of salary, they could end up with substantially more cap room than we project.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Jackson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. If Okafor’s team option is exercised, his salary is still only partially guaranteed for $54,323.
  3. Bertans’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($150K) after August 1.
  4. Williams’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200K) after July 20.
  5. Crawford’s cap hold remains on the Pelicans’ books because he hasn’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  6. This is a projected value. If the Pelicans remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and their lone remaining trade exception ($3,109,598; expires 2/7/20).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Four More-Likely-Than-Not NBA Draft Lottery Outcomes

As we noted on Monday when we passed along the full breakdown of the odds for each team in this year’s NBA draft lottery, the league has adjusted its format for 2019 and beyond, smoothing out the odds and making four picks – instead of three – available in the lottery.

While it’s simple enough to read the numbers in a chart and observe differences from previous years, it’s a little trickier to pin down exactly how those new odds may impact the results we see on lottery night in two weeks. So, to help create a clearer sense of what sort of results we should prepare for on Tuesday, May 14, we’re going to focus on four different scenarios today.

The four scenarios listed below are more likely than not to occur. That doesn’t mean that they’ll all happen, or that any of them will happen, for that matter. But the odds are at least slightly in favor of them happening, which wouldn’t necessarily have been the case in previous years.

Let’s dive in…

1. The No. 1 overall pick is more likely to go to a team in the 5-14 range (45.5%) than to the Knicks, Cavaliers, or Suns (42%).

Under the NBA’s old lottery format, the odds heavily favored the league’s very worst teams — the top three teams in the lottery standings combined for a 60.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the teams in the 5-14 range had a combined 27.6% chance at that top selection.

The new format has made tanking to the bottom of the NBA standings a less favorable proposition. The system essentially took 185 ping-pong ball combinations (out of 1,001) from those top three lottery teams and re-assigned them to rest of the clubs behind them in the lottery.

In other words, it’s not at all safe to assume that Zion Williamson will end up on one of the league’s very worst teams.

2. The Knicks are more likely to pick No. 5 overall (47.9%) than in the top three (40.1%).

No team benefits less from the league’s adjusted lottery format than the Knicks, who in past years would’ve had a 25% chance at the first overall pick, a 64.3% chance to be in the top three, and a 0% chance of falling below No. 4.

Now, the Knicks are significantly more likely to finish out of the top three altogether (59.9%), despite their league-worst 17-65 record. In a draft that’s considered fairly top-heavy, that could be trouble for New York — the team may end up deciding between the likes of Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter, and Jarrett Culver rather than getting a shot at Williamson, Ja Morant, or R.J. Barrett.

3. The Bulls are more likely to pick No. 6 overall (25.7%) than in the top two (24.7%).

The Bulls‘ odds of securing a top-two pick as the No. 4 seed in the lottery are technically a tiny bit higher this year than they would’ve been in the old format. That’s the good news.

The bad news? Because four picks are decided by the lottery now instead of just three, Chicago is far more likely to move out of the top five altogether. In the old format, the Bulls’ odds of picking outside of the top five would have been 17.2%. Those odds are now at 44.7%.

4. The Grizzlies’ pick is more likely to be sent to the Celtics (42.6%) than to be No. 8 overall (31.2%).

When the Grizzlies finished second in a lottery tiebreaker conducted at the end of the regular season, it locked them into the No. 8 spot in the lottery standings, which didn’t look like great news for the franchise.

After all, Memphis’ 2019 first-round pick was traded to Boston with top-eight protection. If it stays in the top eight, the Grizzlies keep it, but they’d actually prefer to have it convey to the Celtics this season to avoid the risk of sending an even more favorable pick to the C’s in a future draft.

The good news for the Grizzlies is that the absolute worst-case scenario – the pick staying at No. 8 and remaining with Memphis – isn’t nearly as likely as it would’ve been in previous years. Because the smoothed-out odds make a lottery shakeup more likely, there’s a decent chance the pick slips to No. 9 or lower (42.6%) or that it jumps into the top four (26.2%). Either of those outcomes would be just fine with the Grizzlies.

In previous years, the odds of the Memphis pick jumping into the top three (or four) would’ve been just 10%. The odds of it remaining at No. 8 would’ve been upwards of 70%.

Information from Tankathon.com was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Miami Heat

While the Heat weren’t considered a championship contender entering the 2018/19 season, they were viewed as a solid playoff team with the opportunity to increase their ceiling by making a trade for Jimmy Butler. Despite a steady stream of trade rumors in the fall, Butler was ultimately sent to Philadelphia instead of Miami, and the Heat’s star-less roster struggled to perform consistently during Dwyane Wade‘s farewell tour. With Wade calling it a career, the Heat are entering a new era in 2019/20 after missing the postseason this spring.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • Although Whiteside and Dragic have said they’re still undecided on their respective player options, it’s hard to imagine either player opting out. Assuming those options are exercised, that would push the Heat’s team salary over $132MM for just eight players and a first-round pick. Even if the club can shed some salary, staying out of the tax will be a challenge and creating cap room is extremely unlikely.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $6,270,000 (expires 2/6/20)
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Anderson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Robinson’s salary guarantee increases to $1MM after July 15.
  3. Maten’s salary guarantee increases to $150K after August 1.
  4. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  5. Nunn’s salary becomes partially guaranteed to $50K after July 1 and to $150K after August 1.
  6. Babbitt’s and Mickey’s cap holds remain on the Heat’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value. If the Heat reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.