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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Charlotte Hornets

May 2nd, 2019 at 9:51am CST by Luke Adams

Despite having had Kemba Walker under contract at a rate of $12MM annually for the last four years, the Hornets were unable to build a legit contender around him, loading their cap with long-term, oversized contracts for role players. Now, after another season in the lottery, the Hornets enter the summer with many of those pricey contracts still on their books and Walker headed for unrestricted free agency.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • If Williams or Kidd-Gilchrist unexpectedly opt out, perhaps the Hornets could carve out a little cap room. But assuming both players return, Charlotte would only be able to get up to about $8.2MM in cap room by renouncing all their free agents and waiving all their players on non-guaranteed contracts. The mid-level exception will be worth more than that, so the Hornets figure to just remain over the cap.
  • Should the Hornets re-sign Walker to a maximum salary contract, they’ll likely have to shed a little salary to stay out of tax territory.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $7,819,725 (expires 7/6/19)
  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Parker’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 4.
  2. Hernangomez’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 28.
  3. Bacon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  4. Roberts’ and Paige’s cap holds remain on the Hornets’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Hornets are at risk of going into tax territory, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: NBA Finals Match-Up

May 1st, 2019 at 10:49pm CST by clarkcrum

The NBA’s conference semifinals are underway and that means we’re down to eight teams as the Warriors, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Bucks, Raptors, Sixers, and Celtics each won their first-round series. The Warriors have taken control of their series with a 2-0 lead but the remaining series are all tied up at 1-1 and the Rockets are heading home for games 3 and 4. As such, every club still has a realistic shot of moving forward to the conference finals.

As everyone is well aware, the Warriors are the two-time defending NBA champions and winners of three of the last four. They are also the prohibitive favorites again this season and perhaps the one team that could be classified as league villains, while the other three Western Conference teams haven’t been to an NBA Finals since the Rockets in 1995.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers and Heat (via LeBron James) have controlled the Eastern Conference playoffs for the last decade or so, with Milwaukee and Toronto never having won the East and Philadelphia and Boston not having been conference champions since 2001 and 2010, respectively.

With that all said, there are certain to be a bevy of opinions on what would be the best finals match-up, so we’re asking you that very question. Which NBA Finals match-up do you want to see? Is that the match-up you expect as well? Let us know what you think in the comments.

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Poll: Which Series Is Most Likely To Go Seven Games?

May 1st, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Through two games apiece, the Eastern Conference Semifinals are living up to their billing as heavyweight bouts, with each series featuring one team delivering a strong blow in Game One before taking a counter-punch in Game Two.

In Toronto, the Raptors looked dominant against the Sixers in the first game of the series, a rarity for a franchise that had previously been 2-14 in Game Ones. However, strong showings from Jimmy Butler and the bench – as well as some savvy defensive adjustments – allowed Philadelphia to even up the series on Monday in a old-school 94-89 slugfest. While the 76ers probably wouldn’t mind seeing more from Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on offense, the duo’s defense helped the club reclaim home court advantage.

On the other side of the Eastern bracket, the Bucks came out flat in their first game vs. the Celtics, with Giannis Antetokounmpo submitting one of his worst performances of the year in a blowout loss. However, a massive third-quarter run in Game Two allowed Milwaukee to return the favor, evening the series at 1-1 as its heads to Boston. Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart loom as potential X-factors in that series if they can return from their respective injuries.

Out West, a much-hyped Warriors/Rockets showdown has been marred to some extent by officiating complaints and health issues so far, but Stephen Curry and James Harden both managed to return from ugly-looking injuries in Game Two and will hopefully be okay going forward. Golden State has taken a 2-0 lead in a rematch of last year’s Western Finals, with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green firing on all cylinders, so the pressure will be on Houston to win Game Three to make it a series.

Finally, the Trail Blazers and Nuggets are the only teams that have squared off just once so far in the second round. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 39 points in an offensive shootout, but Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 60 of their own to lead Denver to a Game One victory. After witnessing Lillard’s first round heroics, we certainly can’t rule out Portland in this series yet, but that first game showed that Jokic will be a major problem for the Blazers’ frontcourt.

What do you think? Based on what you’ve seen from these series so far, which one do you think is the best bet to go seven games? Are you expecting more than one long series, or are there some that look more one-sided than you may have anticipated?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: New Orleans Pelicans

May 1st, 2019 at 10:24am CST by Luke Adams

Coming off an impressive 2017/18 season in which they advanced to the Western Semifinals, the Pelicans had hopes of contending in 2018/19. Instead, New Orleans played sub-.500 ball in the first half and saw things go from bad to worse when Anthony Davis made a public trade request in January. Now, new head of basketball operations David Griffin will be tasked with determining the next move in the Davis saga, which will have significant impact on the future of the franchise.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $16MM
  • There are a lot of wild cards at play in the Pelicans’ offseason. Davis’ future is the biggest one, but there are a number of free agents or players on non-guaranteed salaries on the roster whose fates are unclear too. Our projection assumes the Pelicans keep their four players with fully guaranteed salaries, plus Jackson, Okafor, and Wood, who all have reasonable contracts.
  • New Orleans’ actual summer may – and probably will – end up playing out much differently. If the Pelicans want to re-sign Randle and/or some other free agents, they might not use cap room at all. On the other hand, if the Pels trade Davis for a pick-heavy package and don’t take back a ton of salary, they could end up with substantially more cap room than we project.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Jackson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. If Okafor’s team option is exercised, his salary is still only partially guaranteed for $54,323.
  3. Bertans’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($150K) after August 1.
  4. Williams’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200K) after July 20.
  5. Crawford’s cap hold remains on the Pelicans’ books because he hasn’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  6. This is a projected value. If the Pelicans remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and their lone remaining trade exception ($3,109,598; expires 2/7/20).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Four More-Likely-Than-Not NBA Draft Lottery Outcomes

April 30th, 2019 at 11:19am CST by Luke Adams

As we noted on Monday when we passed along the full breakdown of the odds for each team in this year’s NBA draft lottery, the league has adjusted its format for 2019 and beyond, smoothing out the odds and making four picks – instead of three – available in the lottery.

While it’s simple enough to read the numbers in a chart and observe differences from previous years, it’s a little trickier to pin down exactly how those new odds may impact the results we see on lottery night in two weeks. So, to help create a clearer sense of what sort of results we should prepare for on Tuesday, May 14, we’re going to focus on four different scenarios today.

The four scenarios listed below are more likely than not to occur. That doesn’t mean that they’ll all happen, or that any of them will happen, for that matter. But the odds are at least slightly in favor of them happening, which wouldn’t necessarily have been the case in previous years.

Let’s dive in…

1. The No. 1 overall pick is more likely to go to a team in the 5-14 range (45.5%) than to the Knicks, Cavaliers, or Suns (42%).

Under the NBA’s old lottery format, the odds heavily favored the league’s very worst teams — the top three teams in the lottery standings combined for a 60.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the teams in the 5-14 range had a combined 27.6% chance at that top selection.

The new format has made tanking to the bottom of the NBA standings a less favorable proposition. The system essentially took 185 ping-pong ball combinations (out of 1,001) from those top three lottery teams and re-assigned them to rest of the clubs behind them in the lottery.

In other words, it’s not at all safe to assume that Zion Williamson will end up on one of the league’s very worst teams.

2. The Knicks are more likely to pick No. 5 overall (47.9%) than in the top three (40.1%).

No team benefits less from the league’s adjusted lottery format than the Knicks, who in past years would’ve had a 25% chance at the first overall pick, a 64.3% chance to be in the top three, and a 0% chance of falling below No. 4.

Now, the Knicks are significantly more likely to finish out of the top three altogether (59.9%), despite their league-worst 17-65 record. In a draft that’s considered fairly top-heavy, that could be trouble for New York — the team may end up deciding between the likes of Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter, and Jarrett Culver rather than getting a shot at Williamson, Ja Morant, or R.J. Barrett.

3. The Bulls are more likely to pick No. 6 overall (25.7%) than in the top two (24.7%).

The Bulls‘ odds of securing a top-two pick as the No. 4 seed in the lottery are technically a tiny bit higher this year than they would’ve been in the old format. That’s the good news.

The bad news? Because four picks are decided by the lottery now instead of just three, Chicago is far more likely to move out of the top five altogether. In the old format, the Bulls’ odds of picking outside of the top five would have been 17.2%. Those odds are now at 44.7%.

4. The Grizzlies’ pick is more likely to be sent to the Celtics (42.6%) than to be No. 8 overall (31.2%).

When the Grizzlies finished second in a lottery tiebreaker conducted at the end of the regular season, it locked them into the No. 8 spot in the lottery standings, which didn’t look like great news for the franchise.

After all, Memphis’ 2019 first-round pick was traded to Boston with top-eight protection. If it stays in the top eight, the Grizzlies keep it, but they’d actually prefer to have it convey to the Celtics this season to avoid the risk of sending an even more favorable pick to the C’s in a future draft.

The good news for the Grizzlies is that the absolute worst-case scenario – the pick staying at No. 8 and remaining with Memphis – isn’t nearly as likely as it would’ve been in previous years. Because the smoothed-out odds make a lottery shakeup more likely, there’s a decent chance the pick slips to No. 9 or lower (42.6%) or that it jumps into the top four (26.2%). Either of those outcomes would be just fine with the Grizzlies.

In previous years, the odds of the Memphis pick jumping into the top three (or four) would’ve been just 10%. The odds of it remaining at No. 8 would’ve been upwards of 70%.

Information from Tankathon.com was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Miami Heat

April 30th, 2019 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

While the Heat weren’t considered a championship contender entering the 2018/19 season, they were viewed as a solid playoff team with the opportunity to increase their ceiling by making a trade for Jimmy Butler. Despite a steady stream of trade rumors in the fall, Butler was ultimately sent to Philadelphia instead of Miami, and the Heat’s star-less roster struggled to perform consistently during Dwyane Wade‘s farewell tour. With Wade calling it a career, the Heat are entering a new era in 2019/20 after missing the postseason this spring.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • Although Whiteside and Dragic have said they’re still undecided on their respective player options, it’s hard to imagine either player opting out. Assuming those options are exercised, that would push the Heat’s team salary over $132MM for just eight players and a first-round pick. Even if the club can shed some salary, staying out of the tax will be a challenge and creating cap room is extremely unlikely.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $6,270,000 (expires 2/6/20)
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Anderson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Robinson’s salary guarantee increases to $1MM after July 15.
  3. Maten’s salary guarantee increases to $150K after August 1.
  4. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  5. Nunn’s salary becomes partially guaranteed to $50K after July 1 and to $150K after August 1.
  6. Babbitt’s and Mickey’s cap holds remain on the Heat’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value. If the Heat reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Sacramento Kings

April 29th, 2019 at 3:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Projected by oddsmakers to be the worst team in the Western Conference in 2018/19, the Kings surpassed all expectations, emerging as one of the most entertaining young clubs in the league behind breakout seasons from De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. The year wasn’t without the usual Sacramento drama, as an end-of-season coaching change proved, but the franchise finally appears to be pointed in the right direction after spending over a decade in the lottery.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Kings financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $38.4MM
  • This projection may not be the most realistic outcome for the Kings, as it hinges on them only retaining their seven players on guaranteed contracts, plus Barnes, renouncing their free agents and waiving all their players on non-guaranteed salaries.
  • If the Kings were to bring back Ferrell and Mason, their available cap room would dip to $35.4MM. If they were to retain both of those players and also keep Cauley-Stein’s cap hold on their books, that number would decline further, to $22.2MM.
  • On the other hand, if Barnes decides to test the market, the Kings could theoretically get all the way up to $62.6MM in cap space by only keeping their seven players on guaranteed salaries.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Ferrell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 4.
  2. Mason’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 15.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Kings remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Full 2019 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 29th, 2019 at 1:26pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2019 NBA draft lottery is just over two weeks away, as it will take place on Tuesday, May 14. The event will significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select potential stars like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

This year, for the first time, the NBA is using its new lottery format to determine the top picks. In past years, the odds have been more favorable for the league’s worst teams, and the lottery has only been used to determine the top three selections. This year, those odds were smoothed out a little more, and the top four picks will be determined in the lottery.

For a full breakdown of the new system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.

The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2019’s lottery. Because a handful of teams finished the season with identical records, those ties will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2019 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Knicks, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYK 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
PHX 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
CHI 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
ATL 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
WSH 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
NOP 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – 19.7 37.2 15.1 1.6 >0 – – –
MEM 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 31.2 34.1 8 0.5 >0 – –
DAL 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – – 46.4 24.3 2.9 0.1 >0 –
MIN 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
LAL 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
CHA 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – 86.1 9.0 0.2
MIA 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
SAC 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – – 95.2

Notes:

  • The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight.
  • The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it falls outside the top five.
  • The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics, unless it’s No. 1 overall, in which case it would be sent to the Sixers.

The full pre-lottery draft order for 2019 can be found right here.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Nuggets/Blazers Series?

April 29th, 2019 at 10:41am CST by Luke Adams

The two Eastern Semifinals this spring pit the conference’s four powerhouses one another and have been awaited for months. Over in the Western Conference, the Rockets/Warriors showdown may be the most anticipated matchup of the postseason. That leaves one remaining semifinal which may ultimately fly under the radar, as a pair of Northwest rivals – the Nuggets and Trail Blazers – prepare to do battle.

A year ago, Denver missed out on the postseason entirely, while Portland was quickly dispatched in the first round by the Pelicans without winning a single game. It was the third straight first-round exit by the Blazers and the fifth consecutive season in which the Nuggets had finished in the lottery. In other words, by advancing to the Western Semifinals this year, these two teams can already consider the 2018/19 season a success.

Still, one of these clubs will play in the Western Finals next month against the winner of that Rockets/Warriors series. With Game 1 set to tip off tonight, we want to get your thoughts on how this series will play out.

The Nuggets finished the regular season as the No. 2 seed in the West, giving them home court advantage vs. the Blazers. That could give Denver a leg up in this series, since no NBA team posted a better home record this season than the Nuggets’ 34-7 mark. Oddsmakers have also made the Nuggets – who won the season series vs. Portland by a 3-1 margin – the slight favorites for the series.

Still, there are some potential red flags for Denver. As good as Nikola Jokic was in the first round vs. San Antonio, some key members of his supporting cast – including guards Jamal Murray and Will Barton – were a little more up and down. Going up against one of the league’s best backcourt duos this series, the Nuggets’ guards will face a daunting challenge.

Of course, while Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should give the Blazers a chance to win this series, it will be interesting to see whether the club has an answer for Jokic. Enes Kanter has performed admirably in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic, but he’s battling a shoulder injury, and the Nuggets bigs – Jokic and Paul Millsap – will give the Blazers all they can handle. If Kanter is unable to play or is ineffective, that would put a ton of pressure on backups like Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard.

What do you think? Are you taking the Nuggets or Blazers to advance to the Western Finals? How do you see this series playing out? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Bucks/Celtics Series?

April 28th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by clarkcrum

The Celtics came out in Game 1 earlier today and unexpectedly thrashed the Bucks, 112-90, to take a 1-0 series lead and home-court advantage away from Milwaukee and MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo.

While Kyrie Irving had a magnificent game, scoring 26 points and dishing out 11 assists, Al Horford appeared to be the consensus player of the game on social media after the final buzzer sounded, as the big man put up 20 points and 11 rebounds while simultaneously putting together a masterful defensive effort on The Greek Freak, holding Antetokounmpo to 22 points and only two assists on 33% shooting.

Some interesting story lines for Game 2 (which tips off Tuesday night in Milwaukee) and the remainder of the series include the possible return of Celtics’ guard Marcus Smart, who traveled to Milwaukee but wasn’t in uniform for today’s game. Smart is not expected to return for Game 2, but he has been practicing with team in recent days and could possibly return before the end of the series.

Bucks’ guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is recovering from a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot, could also return for this series at some point, but his return remains more unclear that that of Smart. Meanwhile, Brogdon’s primary replacement, Sterling Brown, left Game 1 with back spasms. It’s still unknown whether his status for Game 2 will be affected.

Will all that said, what do you think the final outcome of this series will be after what you saw in Game 1? Will Giannis and the 60+ win Bucks come back with a vengeance of will the surging Celtics make quick work of Milwaukee? Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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