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Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

May 10th, 2019 at 3:31pm CST by Luke Adams

It looked like the Suns might be on the upswing after they lucked into the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, then lured a coveted two-way forward (Trevor Ariza) away from the 65-win Rockets during free agency. However, things took an abrupt downward turn from there.

Team owner Robert Sarver‘s patience with GM Ryan McDonough ran out when Phoenix was unable to land a starting-caliber point guard in the offseason, prompting the club to fire McDonough right before the regular season began. Despite aspirations of postseason contention, the Suns spent virtually season in the basement of the Western Conference, selling off veterans like Ariza when it became clear that the playoffs were a pipe dream. To top it all off, first-year head coach Igor Kokoskov got his walking papers at season’s end.

With a new permanent GM (James Jones) and head coach (Monty Williams) now in place, there’s some optimism that this duo can finally be the winning combination for the Suns. But after losing at least 58 games for four straight seasons and not appearing in the playoffs since 2010, the team remains in prove-it mode.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will they acquire a starting point guard this year?

The days of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas vying for minutes in Phoenix are long gone. The team’s current point guard depth chart, which features 2018 draftees De’Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo and combo guard Tyler Johnson, is… well, a little thinner.

Unlike last year, the Suns are unlikely to have any cap room at their disposal during the 2019 offseason, which will limit their ability to add an impact player at the position. Barring major cost-cutting moves, it’s hard to imagine the team being able to make a play for a young point guard like D’Angelo Russell or Terry Rozier, both of whom will be restricted free agents.

Second-tier RFAs like Delon Wright or Tyus Jones could be in Phoenix’s price range, but those players have yet to show they can be reliable starters. On the unrestricted market, veterans like Patrick Beverley, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Rajon Rondo, and Ricky Rubio may be realistic targets for the Suns if they don’t receive other offers that exceed the mid-level.

Of course, the draft would provide the simplest path to securing a long-term answer at point guard, but the Suns will need some lottery luck to be in a position to snag Murray State’s Ja Morant, who looks like the consensus No. 2 pick in this year’s class. Although they finished in a tie for the league’s second-worst record, the Suns only have a 27.4% chance to land a top-two pick, thanks to the NBA’s new lottery format.

If the Suns can’t get Morant, Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland could be a viable fallback option — he’s ranked fourth among this year’s prospects on ESPN’s big board, and other teams near the top of the lottery, like the Cavaliers and Hawks, have already used lottery picks on point guards in recent years, making them less-likely suitors for someone like Garland.

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Poll: Which Teams Will Win Game 7?

May 10th, 2019 at 1:25pm CST by Luke Adams

The Sixers and Trail Blazers each won Game Six of their respective series on Thursday, pushing a pair of conference semifinals to a seventh and deciding game.

Both of those Game Sevens are scheduled to take place on Sunday, with the Sixers and Raptors set to tip off at 7:00 pm ET, while the Nuggets and Blazers will either play before or after, depending on whether a third Game Seven is required for Golden State and Houston.

For the 76ers and Raptors, there’s a ton at stake in Sunday’s Game 7. Each team made two huge trades this season, with Toronto acquiring Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Marc Gasol, while Philadelphia landed Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Those franchise-altering deals were made with an NBA Finals appearance in mind, so neither club would be happy with a second-round exit.

It has been hard to know what to expect from the Raptors and Sixers from game to game, as players like Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowry, and Gasol have looked great in one outing, then all but disappeared in the next. The fact that Game 7 will take place in Toronto should offer the Raptors an advantage. Through six games, the Raps have a +14.7 net rating at home, compared to their -8.7 mark on the road.

Home court advantage could also be crucial over in the West, as the Nuggets posted an NBA-best 34-7 record during the regular season in the Mile High City. The club hasn’t been invincible in Denver during the postseason, losing a home game in each of the first two rounds. But the difference between the Nuggets’ net rating at home (+9.2) and on the road (-3.2) vs. Portland is stark.

Although the Sixers and Blazers will go on the road as underdogs, it would be dangerous to write them off. Both teams have superstars who are capable of taking over games and single-handedly turning a potential loss into a win.

What do you think? Will the Raptors and Nuggets protect their home courts and advance to the final four? Or will will see stars like Embiid and Damian Lillard come up big and push their teams through to the conference finals?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 10th, 2019 at 9:49am CST by Luke Adams

The Thunder‘s 2017 trade for Paul George paid off in a big way during the 2018 offseason when they convinced the All-Star forward to sign a long-term deal with the franchise. However, despite a terrific season from George, Oklahoma City was eliminated from the playoffs in the first round for a third consecutive year, raising questions about the long-term ceiling of the current core.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • After paying the highest luxury tax bill in the NBA in 2018/19, the Thunder appear poised to blow past the tax threshold again in 2019/20. It’s possible they’ll find a way to sneak below that line, but there’s no chance they’ll have cap room and little chance they’ll gain access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $10,883,189 (expires 7/25/19)
  • Trade exception: $1,544,951 (expires 2/3/20)
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Nader’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.
  2. Burton’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($1MM) after August 1.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. Cole’s and Collison’s cap holds remain on the Thunder’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in previous offseasons. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Thunder were to reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Better Match-Up For Bucks?

May 9th, 2019 at 9:21pm CST by clarkcrum

The Eastern Conference Finals are halfway set, with the No. 1 seed Bucks set to face the winner of the Raptors/Sixers series. And while the Bucks ended up making quick work of the Celtics after losing Game 1 of that series, the match-up against Toronto or Philadelphia figures to be much more difficult.

The series between the Raptors and Sixers is now tied 3-3, and both teams have shown promise as a potential NBA Finals participant during stretches this postseason. Kawhi Leonard is having an all-time great postseason, while both Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid (when ostensibly healthy) have played great games.

Milwaukee took two of three contests from the Sixers this season, splitting the match-ups in Wisconsin and winning in Philly, while the Raptors lost their regular season series to the Bucks 3-1 (split in Milwaukee with the Bucks winning both contests in Toronto).

So, based on the above and any other factors you may consider, which match-up do you think would be the most compelling? Would either of the series go the full seven games? Could there be a sweep? Let us know what you think in the comments.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Brooklyn Nets

May 9th, 2019 at 1:58pm CST by Luke Adams

A long, challenging rebuild began to pay dividends for the Nets in 2018/19, as the team finished sixth in the Eastern Conference, returning to the postseason for the first time since 2015.

With promising young players like Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Rodions Kurucs still on rookie deals and reliable contributors like Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris also locked up for next season, Brooklyn is set up well for the future. But the Nets will have to answer two crucial questions this summer: Will they invest big money in D’Angelo Russell, and will they be able to land a star in free agency?

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Standard cap room projection: $30.4MM
  • For all the talk of the Nets being a player for a maximum-salary free agent, they’d have to shed some money to create enough room for one. This projection takes into account their seven guaranteed salaries, Russell’s cap hold, and the cap holds for their two first-round picks.
  • More aggressive cap room projection: $50MM
  • If the Nets want to open up more space, waiving-and-stretching Crabbe would be one option, but it might make more sense to trade him, using one of their first-round picks as a sweetener to convince a team to take on his contract. This projection assumes the Nets trade Crabbe along with the No. 17 overall pick without taking back any salary.
  • Other scenarios:
    • The most aggressive scenario I can envision for the Nets would involve trading Crabbe and both of their two first-round picks while also renouncing Russell’s cap hold. That’s probably not a likely outcome, but it would get Brooklyn all the way up to $71.3MM in space, enough for two maximum contracts.
    • If the Nets were to retain their first-round picks and Russell’s cap hold and simply waived-and-stretched Crabbe, their cap room would increase from $30.4MM (our initial projection) to $41.8MM. This would be the simplest way to create a max slot if the team doesn’t want to sacrifice a first-round pick and doesn’t mind spreading out Crabbe’s salary across three years.
    • Attaching their No. 27 pick to Crabbe in a trade while retaining Russell’s cap hold and their No. 17 pick would leave the Nets with $49MM in cap room.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Napier’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Graham’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Nets remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: What Went Wrong With The Celtics?

May 8th, 2019 at 10:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

“I did a bad job,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters after his team was emphatically eliminated by Milwaukee tonight with a 25-point loss in Game 5. “I’ll do a lot of deep dives into how to be better.”

If Stevens was a problem this year, he certainly wasn’t the only one in Boston. A year that began with the Celtics as clear favorites to win the East ended in a non-competitive effort with the season on the line.

“I’ve been a coach for 12 years and we let go of the rope, and cracked the rope, probably more than we should have,” Stevens says in the rest of the quote tweeted by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. “As far as any year I’ve been a coach, it’s been the most trying.”

Chemistry issues were the main problem in Boston, causing several players to say they didn’t feel like everyone was on the same page. Marcus Morris proclaimed in February that the season “just hasn’t been fun for a long time.” Kyrie Irving complained numerous times about the difficulty of being a leader on a young team, even reaching out to LeBron James to apologize for his actions when he was a young player in Cleveland.

Players unwilling to accept their roles seemed to be at the heart of the Celtics’ misery. With Irving and Gordon Hayward both sidelined by injuries last year, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier stepped up to lead the team to the conference finals. The theory was that the Celtics would be much better with Irving and Hayward both back, but it turned into a season-long chore to make the pieces fit.

Another concern is that too many players may have had their eyes on the future. Irving’s next stop has been a topic of speculation as he slowly stepped back from a preseason promise to re-sign in Boston. The idea that the team could pay him and Rozier after giving big money to Marcus Smart has always seemed doubtful. Then there’s the matter of Anthony Davis, whom the Celtics are expected to aggressively pursue this summer. Trade rumors may have had the same effect on Boston’s locker room as it did on the Lakers’.

We want to get your input. Why do you think the Celtics underachieved this season? Please leave your responses in the space below.

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Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

May 8th, 2019 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hawks entered the 2018/19 season facing some major questions. Did they pick the right head coach when they hired Lloyd Pierce to replace Mike Budenholzer? Was it the right choice to give up on Dennis Schroder? Did they make a mistake passing on an opportunity to draft Luka Doncic by moving down for Trae Young?

While it’s probably premature to say that the team’s ’18/19 showing definitively answered all those questions, they’re at least much less pressing heading into the 2019 offseason. Pierce had a solid first year as the young, run-and-gun Hawks began to form their own identity. And Atlanta didn’t miss Schroder as Young gave Doncic a serious run for Rookie of the Year honors.

There’s still a long way to go in the rebuild, but the Hawks certainly seem pointed in the right direction. Now, they have the opportunity to take another step or two toward contention with this offseason’s moves.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How aggressive will the Hawks be in free agency?

As we outlined in our look at Atlanta’s cap situation, the team can expect to have over $40MM in cap room at its disposal this summer. That’s more than enough to sign… well, any free agent available.

It’s probably not realistic to expect a star like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard to choose the Hawks in free agency, but a February report indicated that the franchise planned to be aggressive in pursuing that sort of player in the hopes of at least getting a meeting. With a young nucleus already in place, along with an upgraded arena and practice facility, the Hawks could make a decent pitch.

More recently though, general manager Travis Schlenk suggested that the Hawks are more likely to take a similar approach to free agency that they did a year ago, waiting out the market and looking for discounts in the second or third wave of signings.

Does that mean that Atlanta recognizes it won’t get an audience with those top-tier players? Or does Schlenk simply believe it’s too early in the rebuilding process to attempt that sort of splash? Either way, at this point, it would be surprising if the Hawks pursue a star free agent, and even more surprising if they land one.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: San Antonio Spurs

May 8th, 2019 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

After a tumultuous offseason that included the departures of three longtime core players – Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker – the revamped Spurs did what they always do and earned a playoff spot for the 22nd consecutive year. The current roster may not have the same upside as the title-winning squads led by Tim Duncan, but with Derrick White on the rise and Dejounte Murray on the mend, there’s still room for San Antonio to improve.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • Barring a cost-cutting move or two, the Spurs project to have $103.8MM on their books for 11 guaranteed salaries plus two first-round picks. Working as an over-the-cap team and retaining their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions makes more sense than renouncing those exceptions for a mere $5.2MM in potential cap room. If they want to re-sign Gay, going under the cap becomes even less realistic.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Milutinov was the 26th overall pick in the 2015 draft. His cap hold (the equivalent to the 26th overall pick in the 2019 draft) will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2019/20.
  2. Lauvergne’s, Costello’s, and Hilliard’s cap holds remain on the Spurs’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Spurs risk going into the tax, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Kyrie Irving’s Future

May 7th, 2019 at 1:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Three of the NBA’s four conference semifinals appear very much up in the air, as they head into their respective Game Fives all tied up at 2-2. However, with a second consecutive resounding road victory over the Celtics on Monday, the Bucks took a 3-1 lead and now have up to three chances to end Boston’s season.

If the Bucks can finish off the series at home in Game Five, Monday’s loss might be the last time that fans ever see Irving wear a Celtics uniform in Boston. And if that’s the case, then it wasn’t a particularly memorable end to a short-lived era.

As Jay King of The Athletic details, Irving headed to the Celtics’ locker room before the game was officially over on Monday, with fans in Boston booing the club’s second straight home dud. After the game, Irving bristled when he was asked about his shooting woes (he’s 19-of-62 in the team’s last three games), as Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston writes.

“Who cares?” Irving said of his slump. “I’m a basketball player. Prepare the right way. Like I said, it’s a little different when your rhythm is challenged every play down. You’re being picked up full court. They’re doing things to test you. The expectations on me are going to be sky high.

“I try to utilize their aggression against them and still put my teammates in a great position, while still being aggressive. I’m trying to do it all. For me, the 22 shots, I should have shot 30. I’m that great of a shooter.”

While Irving isn’t necessarily wrong, his defiant attitude with the Celtics on the brink may not be the best look, according to Forsberg, who suggests that Boston’s star point guard probably should’ve expressed more frustration and disappointment with himself.

A second-round exit looks like a near certainty for the C’s, in which case Irving’s upcoming free agency will be more interesting than ever. Although he vowed before the season that he intended to stick around long-term, Irving backtracked on that promise during a drama-filled season, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be eager to re-up with Boston after what has been a disappointing year. The possibility of an Anthony Davis trade could entice him to stay, but that’s no certainty.

Appearing on ESPN’s “Get Up” this morning, analyst Jalen Rose declared that Irving is “done in Boston,” adding that his teammates will probably “help him pack,” since they won’t mind seeing him go (video link).

What do you think? Is it premature to assume Irving will sign elsewhere in free agency, or do you agree with Rose that we’re seeing his last games as a Celtic?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Orlando Magic

May 7th, 2019 at 12:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2018/19 season was widely expected to be a rebuilding season for the Magic, and the team even made the ultimate rebuilding at the move at the trade deadline, acquiring injured prospect Markelle Fultz. However, an All-Star performance from Nikola Vucevic and the eighth-best defense in the NBA helped buoy Orlando to a playoff spot.

Now, the team will have to decide whether to try to build on that success by re-signing key contributors like Vucevic and Terrence Ross, or whether to pivot to a full-fledged youth movement.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • This projection assumes that the Magic keep either Vucevic’s or Ross’ cap hold on their books in an attempt to re-sign them. Retaining even one of those holds would make Orlando an over-the-cap team.
  • If the Magic let both of their top free agents walk, there’s a path to possible cap room. Waiving all their non-guaranteed contracts and renouncing their free agents could create as much as about $19.4MM in space. I’m not sure that’s a likely scenario though. I expect the Magic to try to re-sign at least one of Vucevic or Ross, and even if they don’t, bringing back less expensive players like Iwundu and Birch would also cut into that projected room.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 4

Footnotes

  1. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  2. Vazquez was the 11th overall pick in the 2005 draft. His cap hold (the equivalent to the 11th overall pick in the 2019 draft) will remain on the Magic’s books unless the team receives permission to remove it, ensuring Vazquez won’t be signed in 2019/20.
  3. Afflalo’s and Speights’ cap holds remain on the Magic’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. In the event the Magic use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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