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Four More-Likely-Than-Not NBA Draft Lottery Outcomes

April 30th, 2019 at 11:19am CST by Luke Adams

As we noted on Monday when we passed along the full breakdown of the odds for each team in this year’s NBA draft lottery, the league has adjusted its format for 2019 and beyond, smoothing out the odds and making four picks – instead of three – available in the lottery.

While it’s simple enough to read the numbers in a chart and observe differences from previous years, it’s a little trickier to pin down exactly how those new odds may impact the results we see on lottery night in two weeks. So, to help create a clearer sense of what sort of results we should prepare for on Tuesday, May 14, we’re going to focus on four different scenarios today.

The four scenarios listed below are more likely than not to occur. That doesn’t mean that they’ll all happen, or that any of them will happen, for that matter. But the odds are at least slightly in favor of them happening, which wouldn’t necessarily have been the case in previous years.

Let’s dive in…

1. The No. 1 overall pick is more likely to go to a team in the 5-14 range (45.5%) than to the Knicks, Cavaliers, or Suns (42%).

Under the NBA’s old lottery format, the odds heavily favored the league’s very worst teams — the top three teams in the lottery standings combined for a 60.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the teams in the 5-14 range had a combined 27.6% chance at that top selection.

The new format has made tanking to the bottom of the NBA standings a less favorable proposition. The system essentially took 185 ping-pong ball combinations (out of 1,001) from those top three lottery teams and re-assigned them to rest of the clubs behind them in the lottery.

In other words, it’s not at all safe to assume that Zion Williamson will end up on one of the league’s very worst teams.

2. The Knicks are more likely to pick No. 5 overall (47.9%) than in the top three (40.1%).

No team benefits less from the league’s adjusted lottery format than the Knicks, who in past years would’ve had a 25% chance at the first overall pick, a 64.3% chance to be in the top three, and a 0% chance of falling below No. 4.

Now, the Knicks are significantly more likely to finish out of the top three altogether (59.9%), despite their league-worst 17-65 record. In a draft that’s considered fairly top-heavy, that could be trouble for New York — the team may end up deciding between the likes of Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter, and Jarrett Culver rather than getting a shot at Williamson, Ja Morant, or R.J. Barrett.

3. The Bulls are more likely to pick No. 6 overall (25.7%) than in the top two (24.7%).

The Bulls‘ odds of securing a top-two pick as the No. 4 seed in the lottery are technically a tiny bit higher this year than they would’ve been in the old format. That’s the good news.

The bad news? Because four picks are decided by the lottery now instead of just three, Chicago is far more likely to move out of the top five altogether. In the old format, the Bulls’ odds of picking outside of the top five would have been 17.2%. Those odds are now at 44.7%.

4. The Grizzlies’ pick is more likely to be sent to the Celtics (42.6%) than to be No. 8 overall (31.2%).

When the Grizzlies finished second in a lottery tiebreaker conducted at the end of the regular season, it locked them into the No. 8 spot in the lottery standings, which didn’t look like great news for the franchise.

After all, Memphis’ 2019 first-round pick was traded to Boston with top-eight protection. If it stays in the top eight, the Grizzlies keep it, but they’d actually prefer to have it convey to the Celtics this season to avoid the risk of sending an even more favorable pick to the C’s in a future draft.

The good news for the Grizzlies is that the absolute worst-case scenario – the pick staying at No. 8 and remaining with Memphis – isn’t nearly as likely as it would’ve been in previous years. Because the smoothed-out odds make a lottery shakeup more likely, there’s a decent chance the pick slips to No. 9 or lower (42.6%) or that it jumps into the top four (26.2%). Either of those outcomes would be just fine with the Grizzlies.

In previous years, the odds of the Memphis pick jumping into the top three (or four) would’ve been just 10%. The odds of it remaining at No. 8 would’ve been upwards of 70%.

Information from Tankathon.com was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Miami Heat

April 30th, 2019 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

While the Heat weren’t considered a championship contender entering the 2018/19 season, they were viewed as a solid playoff team with the opportunity to increase their ceiling by making a trade for Jimmy Butler. Despite a steady stream of trade rumors in the fall, Butler was ultimately sent to Philadelphia instead of Miami, and the Heat’s star-less roster struggled to perform consistently during Dwyane Wade‘s farewell tour. With Wade calling it a career, the Heat are entering a new era in 2019/20 after missing the postseason this spring.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • Although Whiteside and Dragic have said they’re still undecided on their respective player options, it’s hard to imagine either player opting out. Assuming those options are exercised, that would push the Heat’s team salary over $132MM for just eight players and a first-round pick. Even if the club can shed some salary, staying out of the tax will be a challenge and creating cap room is extremely unlikely.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $6,270,000 (expires 2/6/20)
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Anderson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Robinson’s salary guarantee increases to $1MM after July 15.
  3. Maten’s salary guarantee increases to $150K after August 1.
  4. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  5. Nunn’s salary becomes partially guaranteed to $50K after July 1 and to $150K after August 1.
  6. Babbitt’s and Mickey’s cap holds remain on the Heat’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value. If the Heat reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Sacramento Kings

April 29th, 2019 at 3:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Projected by oddsmakers to be the worst team in the Western Conference in 2018/19, the Kings surpassed all expectations, emerging as one of the most entertaining young clubs in the league behind breakout seasons from De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. The year wasn’t without the usual Sacramento drama, as an end-of-season coaching change proved, but the franchise finally appears to be pointed in the right direction after spending over a decade in the lottery.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Kings financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $38.4MM
  • This projection may not be the most realistic outcome for the Kings, as it hinges on them only retaining their seven players on guaranteed contracts, plus Barnes, renouncing their free agents and waiving all their players on non-guaranteed salaries.
  • If the Kings were to bring back Ferrell and Mason, their available cap room would dip to $35.4MM. If they were to retain both of those players and also keep Cauley-Stein’s cap hold on their books, that number would decline further, to $22.2MM.
  • On the other hand, if Barnes decides to test the market, the Kings could theoretically get all the way up to $62.6MM in cap space by only keeping their seven players on guaranteed salaries.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Ferrell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 4.
  2. Mason’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 15.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Kings remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Full 2019 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 29th, 2019 at 1:26pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2019 NBA draft lottery is just over two weeks away, as it will take place on Tuesday, May 14. The event will significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select potential stars like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

This year, for the first time, the NBA is using its new lottery format to determine the top picks. In past years, the odds have been more favorable for the league’s worst teams, and the lottery has only been used to determine the top three selections. This year, those odds were smoothed out a little more, and the top four picks will be determined in the lottery.

For a full breakdown of the new system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.

The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2019’s lottery. Because a handful of teams finished the season with identical records, those ties will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2019 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Knicks, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
NYK 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
PHX 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
CHI 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
ATL 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
WSH 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
NOP 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – 19.7 37.2 15.1 1.6 >0 – – –
MEM 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 31.2 34.1 8 0.5 >0 – –
DAL 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – – 46.4 24.3 2.9 0.1 >0 –
MIN 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
LAL 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
CHA 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – 86.1 9.0 0.2
MIA 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
SAC 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – – 95.2

Notes:

  • The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight.
  • The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it falls outside the top five.
  • The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics, unless it’s No. 1 overall, in which case it would be sent to the Sixers.

The full pre-lottery draft order for 2019 can be found right here.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Nuggets/Blazers Series?

April 29th, 2019 at 10:41am CST by Luke Adams

The two Eastern Semifinals this spring pit the conference’s four powerhouses one another and have been awaited for months. Over in the Western Conference, the Rockets/Warriors showdown may be the most anticipated matchup of the postseason. That leaves one remaining semifinal which may ultimately fly under the radar, as a pair of Northwest rivals – the Nuggets and Trail Blazers – prepare to do battle.

A year ago, Denver missed out on the postseason entirely, while Portland was quickly dispatched in the first round by the Pelicans without winning a single game. It was the third straight first-round exit by the Blazers and the fifth consecutive season in which the Nuggets had finished in the lottery. In other words, by advancing to the Western Semifinals this year, these two teams can already consider the 2018/19 season a success.

Still, one of these clubs will play in the Western Finals next month against the winner of that Rockets/Warriors series. With Game 1 set to tip off tonight, we want to get your thoughts on how this series will play out.

The Nuggets finished the regular season as the No. 2 seed in the West, giving them home court advantage vs. the Blazers. That could give Denver a leg up in this series, since no NBA team posted a better home record this season than the Nuggets’ 34-7 mark. Oddsmakers have also made the Nuggets – who won the season series vs. Portland by a 3-1 margin – the slight favorites for the series.

Still, there are some potential red flags for Denver. As good as Nikola Jokic was in the first round vs. San Antonio, some key members of his supporting cast – including guards Jamal Murray and Will Barton – were a little more up and down. Going up against one of the league’s best backcourt duos this series, the Nuggets’ guards will face a daunting challenge.

Of course, while Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should give the Blazers a chance to win this series, it will be interesting to see whether the club has an answer for Jokic. Enes Kanter has performed admirably in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic, but he’s battling a shoulder injury, and the Nuggets bigs – Jokic and Paul Millsap – will give the Blazers all they can handle. If Kanter is unable to play or is ineffective, that would put a ton of pressure on backups like Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard.

What do you think? Are you taking the Nuggets or Blazers to advance to the Western Finals? How do you see this series playing out? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Bucks/Celtics Series?

April 28th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by clarkcrum

The Celtics came out in Game 1 earlier today and unexpectedly thrashed the Bucks, 112-90, to take a 1-0 series lead and home-court advantage away from Milwaukee and MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo.

While Kyrie Irving had a magnificent game, scoring 26 points and dishing out 11 assists, Al Horford appeared to be the consensus player of the game on social media after the final buzzer sounded, as the big man put up 20 points and 11 rebounds while simultaneously putting together a masterful defensive effort on The Greek Freak, holding Antetokounmpo to 22 points and only two assists on 33% shooting.

Some interesting story lines for Game 2 (which tips off Tuesday night in Milwaukee) and the remainder of the series include the possible return of Celtics’ guard Marcus Smart, who traveled to Milwaukee but wasn’t in uniform for today’s game. Smart is not expected to return for Game 2, but he has been practicing with team in recent days and could possibly return before the end of the series.

Bucks’ guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is recovering from a partially torn plantar fascia in his right foot, could also return for this series at some point, but his return remains more unclear that that of Smart. Meanwhile, Brogdon’s primary replacement, Sterling Brown, left Game 1 with back spasms. It’s still unknown whether his status for Game 2 will be affected.

Will all that said, what do you think the final outcome of this series will be after what you saw in Game 1? Will Giannis and the 60+ win Bucks come back with a vengeance of will the surging Celtics make quick work of Milwaukee? Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Five Key Stories: 4/20/19 – 4/27/19

April 27th, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by clarkcrum

If you missed any of this past week’s biggest headlines from around the NBA, we’ve got you covered with our Week in Review. Here are some of the most noteworthy stories from the last seven days:

Recently hired Kings head coach Luke Walton has been sued by former Spectrum Sportsnet LA reporter Kelly Tennant for an alleged sexual assault that occurred in a Santa Monica hotel room back in 2014. The suit alleges that Walton forcibly kissed Tennant and rubbed his body against her despite her pleas to stop. The Kings and the NBA have since announced a joint investigation into Tennant’s allegations against Walton. Meanwhile, the Kings have maintained that until the investigation uncovers more facts, they will take an “innocent-until-proven-guilty” approach with Walton.

The Suns parted ways with head coach Igor Kokoskov after he led Phoenix to a conference-worst record of 19-65 in his first season at the helm. The first ever European-born head coach in the NBA, Kokoskov was hired last May after an extensive hiring process by former GM Ryan McDonough. While it’s not clear exactly what prompted the Suns’ change, the team just revamped its front office yet again and it’s possible new GM James Jones wanted to make his own hire.

Pistons’ All-Star forward Blake Griffin underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Griffin, 30, had the procedure done to address the issue that caused soreness in the knee late in the regular season and the playoffs. He is not expected to miss any planned offseason training for next season, but this continues a pattern of left leg injuries for Griffin. He has also suffered a sprained MCL, broken kneecap, meniscus tear, partially torn quadriceps and bone bruise in the same leg during his career.

Celtics’ all-time leading scorer John Havlicek passed away at the age of 79 after a battle with Parkinson’s Disease. The Celtics have since announced their plan to memorialize Havlicek with a black patch on the team’s jerseys with the No. 17 on them. Havlicek’s eight NBA Championships are third all-time, but he’s perhaps best known for his game-clinching steal and the resulting iconic broadcast line, “Havlicek stole the ball” at the close of Game 7 of the 1965 Eastern Conference Finals.

Trail Blazers’ big man Enes Kanter is questionable to appear in the team’s second-round series against the Spurs or Nuggets after suffering a separated left shoulder in Portland’s Game 5 win over the Thunder. Game 1 is not until Monday night, so the team has some time to treat the injury, and the Blazers remain hopeful that Kanter will be able to go.

Here are 9 more headlines worth passing along in what was a busy week for the NBA:

  • Despite suffering a torn ACL in Auburn’s Sweet 16 win over No. 1 seed North Carolina in this year’s NCAA Tournament, sophomore forward Chuma Okeke has entered his name into the 2019 NBA Draft pool.
  • Clippers’ general manager Michael Winger has decided to withdraw his name from consideration for the role of president of basketball operations with the Timberwolves, opting instead to remain in Los Angeles.
  • ESPN’s No. 19 ranked prospect, Georgian center Goga Bitadze, has declared for the 2019 NBA Draft. Bitadze broke the record for best PER by a teenager in EuroLeague history this season, breaking the record set by Luka Doncic last year.
  • Nets’ general manager Sean Marks was fined $25K and suspended for Brooklyn’s Game 5 loss to the Sixers after going into the referees’ locker room following the team’s Game 4 loss.
  • The Lakers currently have no plans in place to hire a replacement for former president of basketball operations Magic Johnson. GM Rob Pelinka is currently leading the franchise’s search for a new head coach.
  • The Lakers and head coaching candidate Tyronn Lue met for a second interview earlier this week. The Lakers are also considering Monty Williams and Juwan Howard to be the team’s next head coach.
  • In addition to the aforementioned candidates, the Lakers also interviewed former Bucks’ head coach Jason Kidd. Reports suggest he’s not as serious of a candiate as the other three, however.
  • 233 early entrants declared for the 2019 NBA Draft. The prospects, 175 from college and 58 international players, have until May 29 and June 10, respectively, to pull their name from the draft pool.
  • Jazz sharpshooter Kyle Korver, now 38, will once again consider retirement this offseason after going through the same decision last summer. His $7.5MM 2019/20 salary is only partially guaranteed for $3.44MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 4/20/19 – 4/27/19

April 27th, 2019 at 1:23pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Western Conference

April 26th, 2019 at 7:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we turn our attention to the Western Conference:

Patrick Beverley, Clippers, 30, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $23MM deal in 2015
Taking a charge while holding one his shoes that came loose epitomizes how Beverley and his team have played during the series. There’s a huge talent gap between them and the Warriors but they refuse to give an inch. Beverley has done a whole lot more than get under Kevin Durant‘s skin. He’s second on the team in assists and rebounds through the first five games while shooting 42.9% from deep. In Games 4 and 5, he averaged 14.5 PPG, 12 RPG and 4.5 APG. Beverley will get a nice raise this summer, whether he lands a starting job or a sixth man role.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers, 28, SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $30MM deal in 2015
Portland’s glue guy played an underrated role in the team’s first-round knockout of the Thunder. He was second on the team in defensive rebounds, a major factor with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. He also led the team in blocks, was second in steals and shot 40.9% from distance, along with providing his usual solid defense. Aminu doesn’t dazzle but he quietly does his job. Reliable, durable role players like Aminu will always have suitors and he’ll receive a full mid-level exception or more on the open market.

Jordan Bell, Warriors, 24, PF/C (Down) — Signed to a two-year, $2.2MM deal in 2017
DeMarcus Cousins‘ season-ending injury hasn’t helped Bell get on the court. He only played 14 minutes in the first five games against the Clippers and was benched in Games 4 and 5. Bell’s immaturity has irked the staff, including a late-season suspension for making unauthorized charges to assistant coach Mike Brown‘s hotel room. Bell can be a restricted free agent if the Warriors extend a $1.8MM qualifying offer, but the 2017 second-round pick doesn’t appear to have a future with the organization.

Markieff Morris, Wizards, 29, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $57.3K deal in 2019
Brother Marcus Morris ripped the Thunder coaching staff over Markieff’s limited role during the postseason. Markieff only played four minutes in the 118-115 Game 5 loss to Portland that ended the Thunder’s season. He wasn’t much of a factor in the first four games of the season, when he averaged around 13 MPG. Markieff praised the organization afterward but his minimal impact won’t help in unrestricted free agency. Add in the neck issue that limited him to 58 regular-season games and Morris won’t have teams beating down his door.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Spurs-Nuggets Winner

April 26th, 2019 at 6:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Unlike the NHL playoffs, which has produced some wild results and do-or-die Game 7 thrillers, the first round of the NBA playoffs has mostly gone true to form.

The opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, in particular, served more as a tune-up than a challenge for the top four seeds. Milwaukee clobbered Detroit four straight times and Boston swept away Victor Oladipo-less Indiana. Following first-game stumbles, Philadelphia and Toronto also took care of business.

It’s been a lot more entertaining in the Western Conference. The pesky Los Angeles Clippers have made two-time defending champion Golden State work harder than anticipated. Utah showed more resistance in the final three games of its series with Houston but ultimately didn’t have enough offensive answers to keep up with the Rockets.

Oklahoma City underachieved once again, as Portland overcame a devastating late-season injury to center Jusuf Nurkic to advance to the conference semis. Damian Lillard‘s 37-foot series-ending shot will be a defining moment in his career.

In terms of sheer drama, nothing gets the pulse racing more than a Game 7. We’ll have at least one in the first round (pending the result of tonight’s Clippers-Warriors game), as San Antonio and Denver will feel the pressure of a win-or-go-home game.

Not surprisingly, DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge have led the way for the Spurs in the series, supplemented by Derrick White‘s 36-point outburst in Game 3. Nikola Jokic has shown why the Nuggets gave him a max extension last summer, leading his team in scoring, rebounding and assists.

Denver will have the home court advantage but San Antonio possesses the experience edge and coach Gregg Popovich, who has prepared teams for games like this for two decades.

That leads us to our question of the day: Who will win Saturday’s Game 7 between San Antonio and Denver and what will be the deciding factor?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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