Hoops Rumors Originals

NBA Player Option Decisions For 2019/20

April 12th, 2019 at 1:58pm CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the final year of his deal, finishing out his contract, or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

In 2016 and 2017, as the salary cap spiked, only eight of 53 veterans who held player options on their contracts actually exercised those options. Half of those eight players (Tim Duncan, Caron Butler, Mo Williams, and Spencer Hawes) didn’t play a single NBA minute after picking up their options, having either retired or been waived. Another one of the eight (Chris Paul) only opted in because it cleared the way for him to be traded to his preferred destination.

However, the pendulum swung back in the other direction in 2018. With the cap increasing by smaller margins following 2016’s leap, and a number of recently-signed contracts turning into player-friendly – rather than team-friendly – deals, 20 of the 28 veterans who held player options for 2018/19 exercised those options.

That trend figures to continue this year. Although there are some marquee players who will certainly opt out in search of a raise and a longer-term commitment, many of the guys making option decisions are unlikely to do better on the open market than they will if they simply opt in.

This year’s player options are listed below. Option decisions are due by the end of the day on June 29 unless a player’s contract specifically calls for an earlier deadline, so we’ll continue to update this list through to note the latest decisions.

Point Guards

Goran Dragic, Heat ($19,217,900): Opted in
Kyrie Irving, Celtics ($21,329,752): Opted out
Jeff Teague, Timberwolves ($19,000,000): Opted in

Shooting Guards

Allen Crabbe, Nets ($18,500,000): Opted in
Tyler Johnson, Suns ($19,245,370): Opted in

Small Forwards

Harrison Barnes, Kings ($25,102,512): Opted out
Kent Bazemore, Hawks ($19,269,662): Opted in
Jimmy Butler, Sixers ($19,841,627): Opted out
James Ennis, Sixers ($1,845,301): Opted out
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Hornets ($13,000,000): Opted in
Kawhi Leonard, Raptors ($21,329,752): Opted out
Khris Middleton, Bucks ($13,000,000): Opted out
C.J. Miles, Grizzlies ($8,730,158): Opted in

Power Forwards

Kevin Durant, Warriors ($31,500,000): Opted out
Patrick Patterson, Thunder ($5,711,200): Opted in
Dwight Powell, Mavericks ($10,259,375): Opted in
Julius Randle, Pelicans ($9,073,050): Opted out
Marvin Williams, Hornets ($15,006,250): Opted in

Centers

Aron Baynes, Celtics ($5,453,280): Opted in
Bismack Biyombo, Hornets ($17,000,000): Opted in
Marc Gasol, Raptors ($25,595,700): Opted in
Al Horford, Celtics ($30,123,015): Opted out
Dwight Howard, Wizards ($5,603,850): Opted in
Nene, Rockets ($3,825,360): Opted out
Nerlens Noel, Thunder ($1,988,119): Opted out
Jonas Valanciunas, Grizzlies ($17,617,976): Opted out
Hassan Whiteside, Heat ($27,093,018): Opted in

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Potential 2019 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 12th, 2019 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Two years ago, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,485,665.

Kristaps Porzingis (Mavericks)
Stanley Johnson (Pelicans)
Frank Kaminsky (Hornets)
Trey Lyles (Nuggets)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Porzingis, who had no chance at meeting the playing-time requirements due to his torn ACL. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 4 overall pick would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth just over $7.5MM. Of course, it may not matter much, since Porzingis is expected to sign a long-term deal with the Mavericks anyway.

For Johnson, Kaminsky, and Lyles, falling short of the starter criteria was more about their roles than health issues.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Kelly Oubre (Suns)

Because Oubre was selected between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2015 draft and met the starter criteria, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,915,726 instead of $4,485,665. No other players fit the bill this year, as many of the players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2015 have either already been extended or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Nets forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the 23rd overall pick in 2015, was the strongest candidate to join Oubre in this group, but fell just short of meeting the criteria, having started 80 games over the last two seasons — he needed to get to 82. Wizards forward Bobby Portis, the 22nd overall pick, also would have had a shot if he stayed healthy, but injuries limited his minutes over the last two seasons.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $3,021,354.

Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks)
Thomas Bryant (Wizards)
Rodney McGruder (Clippers)

Tomas Satoransky (Wizards) was another player who qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will already be worth $3,911,484 based on other criteria.

There were a few second-round picks and UDFAs who just missed out on meeting the starter criteria, including Dorian Finney-Smith of the Mavericks (1,985 minutes played), Bulls guard Ryan Arcidiacono (1,961 minutes), and Clippers center Ivica Zubac (37 starts).

Those players, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Revisiting 2018/19 NBA Over/Under Predictions

April 11th, 2019 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2018/19 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Warriors (62.5) to the Hawks (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

The results of our polls suggested that our respondents were particularly bullish on the Central division, where all five teams were voted “over” their projected win totals. Three of those teams came through, with the Bulls and Cavaliers falling well short of their estimates.

How about the rest of our picks? Nearly six months later, let’s check in on the results, comparing our over/under voting to each club’s actual win-loss record for 2018/19:

Western Conference:

Golden State Warriors: Over 62.5: ✖️ (57-25)
Houston Rockets: Over 56.5: ✖️ (53-29)
Utah Jazz: Over 50.5: ✖️ (50-32)
Denver Nuggets: Under 48.5: ✖️ (54-28)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 48.5: ✔️ (49-33)
Los Angeles Lakers: Over 48.5: ✖️ (37-45)
New Orleans Pelicans: Under 45.5: ✔️ (33-49)
San Antonio Spurs: Under 44.5: ✖️ (48-34)
Portland Trail Blazers: Over 42.5: ✔️ (53-29)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 41.5: ✔️ (36-46)
Los Angeles Clippers: Under 36.5: ✖️ (48-34)
Dallas Mavericks: Over 34.5: ✖️ (33-49)
Memphis Grizzlies: Under 34.5: ✔️ (33-49)
Phoenix Suns: Under 29.5: ✔️ (19-63)
Sacramento Kings: Under 25.5: ✖️ (39-43)
Total record: 6-9

Eastern Conference:

Boston Celtics: Over 59.5: ✖️ (49-33)
Toronto Raptors: Over 55.5: ✔️ (58-24)
Philadelphia 76ers: Under 54.5: ✔️ (51-31)
Milwaukee Bucks: Over 47.5: ✔️ (60-22)
Indiana Pacers: Over 47.5: ✔️ (48-34)
Washington Wizards: Over 45.5: ✖️ (32-50)
Miami Heat: Under 43.5: ✔️ (39-43)
Detroit Pistons: Over 38.5: ✔️ (42-40)
Charlotte Hornets: Over 35.5: ✔️ (39-43)
Brooklyn Nets: Under 31.5: ✖️ (42-40)
Orlando Magic: Under 30.5: ✖️ (42-40)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 30.5: ✖️ (19-63)
Chicago Bulls: Over 29.5: ✖️ (22-60)
New York Knicks: Under 28.5: ✔️ (17-65)
Atlanta Hawks: Under 23.5: ✖️ (29-53)
Total record: 8-7

While we had a sub-.500 record (14-16) overall on our over/under picks for 2018/19, we did pretty well in the Eastern Conference, where there were fewer surprises this season. With the exception of the Celtics and Wizards, we had a good feel for the top nine teams coming into the year, though the Nets‘ and Magic‘s success caught us by surprise, as did the Cavaliers‘ and Bulls‘ struggles.

In the Western Conference, things were more volatile, with the Lakers falling well short of their projection while teams like the Trail Blazers, Clippers, and Kings significantly exceeded theirs. The Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis sagas in Minnesota and New Orleans respectively helped clinch our “under” picks for the Timberwolves and Pelicans.

Our overall results were modest, but did our “best bets” do any better? Let’s take a look. These were the five predictions that received the largest share of the vote:

Milwaukee Bucks: Over 47.5 (73.7%): ✔️
Houston Rockets: Over 56.5 (69.3%): ✖️
Orlando Magic: Under 30.5 (68.4%): ✖️
Sacramento Kings: Under 25.5 (63.9%): ✖️
Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 41.5 (62.5%): ✔️

Our Bucks pick might have been our best. We were extremely bullish on their chances to have a big year, and they exceeded their over/under mark by 12.5 wins, winning an NBA-high 60 games. We also saw the Timberwolves‘ struggles coming.

However, our optimism for the Rockets and our skepticism in the Magic and Kings was somewhat misplaced. Houston at least got close to its projection, with 53 wins, but an 11-14 start was too much to overcome. As for Orlando and Sacramento, we were just way off on both teams — each club exceeded its projected win total by more than 10 games.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with our predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018/19 End-Of-Season NBA Reverse Standings

April 11th, 2019 at 8:48am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2018/19 NBA regular season now in the books, the draft lottery order has been set — mostly. A series of ties in this year’s reverse standings will create a little drama on Friday, when the league conducts random drawings to determine which of those tied teams will be slotted ahead of the other(s).

As our reverse standings show, this is what the lottery order looks like heading into Friday:

Rank	Team	Record	No. 1 pick	Top-4 pick
1	Knicks	17-65	14.0%	52.1%
2(t)	Suns	19-63	14.0%	52.1%
2(t)	Cavaliers	19-63	14.0%	52.1%
4	Bulls	22-60	12.5%	48.1%
5	Hawks	29-53	10.5%	42.1%
6	Wizards	32-50	9.0%	37.2%
7(t)	Pelicans	33-49	6.0%	26.3%
7(t)	Grizzlies	33-49	6.0%	26.3%
7(t)	Mavericks	33-49	6.0%	26.3%
10	Timberwolves	36-46	3.0%	13.9%
11	Lakers	37-45	2.0%	9.4%
12(t)	Kings	39-43	1.0%	4.8%
12(t)	Heat	39-43	1.0%	4.8%
12(t)	Hornets	39-43	1.0%	4.8%

Friday’s tiebreakers won’t have a real impact on this year’s lottery odds, since the teams that finished the season with identical records receive identical odds – or as close as possible – for a top-four pick. Still, those tiebreakers will be significant.

Whichever team wins the Suns/Cavaliers tiebreaker will be guaranteed a draft pick no lower than No. 6. The loser of the tiebreaker could slip all the way to No. 7 if teams leapfrog them on lottery night.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will actually be rooting against themselves in the seventh-place tiebreaker, since they want their top-eight protected first-round pick to convey to the Celtics this year. That way, they won’t have to worry about that commitment in future seasons as they consider a larger-scale rebuild.

Losing the three-way tiebreaker and ending up ninth in the lottery order would be ideal for the Grizzlies — in that scenario, they would either jump into the top four or would be assured of sending their pick to Boston. If they win the three-way tiebreaker, the Grizzlies would have better than 50/50 odds of landing at No. 7 or No. 8, a worst-case outcome.

As for the Mavericks, their pick would head to the Hawks if it’s not in the top five, so they currently have a 26.3% chance at retaining that selection. Atlanta will be rooting for Dallas to win that tiebreaker, which would substantially increase the odds of the pick ending up as high as No. 7.

The three teams at the very bottom of the standings have long odds to move up into the top four, but that tiebreaker will still be important since it will likely represent the difference between picking as high as No. 12 or as low as No. 14. Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Miles Bridges, Jerome Robinson, and Michael Porter Jr. have been selected in that 12-14 range over the last two years.

Of course, the Celtics will receive that Kings first-rounder (unless it jumps to No. 1, in which the Sixers get it). So they’ll be keeping a close eye on Sacramento’s tiebreaker results.

Random drawings will also be conducted on Friday for several other tied teams further down the reverse standings — or further up the actual standings, if you prefer. Currently, nine of the final 16 first-round picks remain up in the air and will need to be determined via tiebreakers.

Here’s the rest of the tentative first-round draft order:

Rank	Team	Record	Pick notes
15	Pistons	41-41	–
16(t)	Magic	42-40	–
16(t)	Nets	42-40	–
18(t)	Spurs	48-34	–
18(t)	Clippers	48-34	Traded to Celtics
18(t)	Pacers	48-34	–
21(t)	Thunder	49-33	–
21(t)	Celtics	49-33	–
23	Jazz	50-32	–
24	Sixers	51-31	–
25(t)	Trail Blazers	53-29	–
25(t)	Rockets	53-29	Traded to Cavaliers
27	Nuggets	54-28	Traded to Nets
28	Warriors	57-25	–
29	Raptors	58-24	Traded to Spurs
30	Bucks	60-22	–

Information from LotteryBucket.com was used in the creation of this post.

Community Shootaround: Best Playoff Series

April 10th, 2019 at 11:50pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The 2018/19 regular season is officially over and the playoff matchups are set. Here are the upcoming series:

Eastern Conference

(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Detroit Pistons.

Season series: Bucks 4-0

(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Orlando Magic

Season series: 2-2

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets

Season series: 2-2

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Indiana Pacers

Season series: Celtics 3-1

Western Conference

(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Los Angeles Clippers

Season series: Warriors 3-1

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

Season series: 2-2

(3) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (6) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season series: Thunder 4-0

(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Utah Jazz

Season series: 2-2

Will any of the top seeds find themselves in trouble during the first round? Which series belongs on NBATV and which one will be the most entertaining? Let us know your thoughts on the playoff matchups in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Notable Draft Lottery Races To Watch This Week

April 8th, 2019 at 12:43pm CST by Luke Adams

The 16-64 Knicks have clinched the NBA’s worst record for the 2018/19 season, but a number of other spots behind them in the draft lottery remain very much up for grabs, as our reverse standings show. Now that every NBA team only has one or two games left on its schedule, here are the key races and games to keep an eye on this week:

The battle for No. 2:

A nine-game losing streak for the Cavaliers has pulled them even with the Suns for the No. 2 spot in the lottery standings, as both teams head into their final game of the season at 19-62. Each club plays its last game on Tuesday, with the Cavs hosting Charlotte while the Suns play in Dallas.

The Hornets are still fighting for their playoff lives and the Suns have a 7-33 road record this season, so it wouldn’t be surprise if both Cleveland and Phoenix lose and finish at 19-63. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team gets the second spot in the lottery standings and which team finishes third. Their odds at a top pick would be the same either way, but the third-place team could fall to as far as No. 7 in the draft, as opposed to No. 6.

Four teams separated by one game between Nos. 6-9:

The Wizards (32-49) currently sit at No. 6 in the lottery standings, but the Grizzlies (32-48), Mavericks (32-48), and Pelicans (33-48) are right there with them. Adding intrigue to this logjam is the fact that the Grizzlies would like to see their top-eight protected first-round pick convey to Boston this season, while the Mavs probably wouldn’t mind keeping their top-five protected first-rounder.

Memphis, with the most incentive to win out, has perhaps the toughest schedule of this group, with games on tap in Detroit on Tuesday and vs. Golden State on Wednesday. The Pistons are still fighting to make the postseason, and the Warriors reportedly intend to play at least half of their regulars in the 82nd game. Wins won’t come easy for the Grizzlies.

The Pelicans’ final game comes on Tuesday vs. Golden State, in a contest which will likely feature the other half of the Warriors’ regulars.

The Wizards finish at home vs. the Celtics, who might be resting some top players now that they’ve sewn up the No. 4 seed in the East.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, have a winnable game at home vs. Phoenix on tap for Tuesday before finishing their season in San Antonio on Wednesday. The Spurs may still be battling for playoff seeding at that point.

The difference between finishing sixth and ninth in the lottery standings is significant. The No. 6 team has a 9% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. For the No. 9 team, those odds dip to 4.5% and 20.2%, respectively.

Minor back-of-the-lottery intrigue:

The Heat and Hornets are both 38-42 and remain in the hunt for the postseason. They’re currently just ahead of the 39-42 Kings in the lottery standings.

If Miami (vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn) and Charlotte (at Cleveland, vs. Orlando) both win out and the Kings lose in Portland on Wednesday, Sacramento would move up from No. 14 to No. 12 in the lottery standings. That’s not really a huge deal, since the No. 12 team is still a real long shot to move up.

Still, Sixers and Celtics fans will certainly take note of the difference between No. 14 (0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick; 2.4% chance at a top-four pick) and No. 12 (1.5% and 7.2%, respectively). If the Kings’ pick jumps to No. 1, Philadelphia would get it. If it lands anywhere else – including Nos. 2, 3, or 4 – it’ll go to Boston.

Community Shootaround: Postseason Droughts

April 8th, 2019 at 11:20am CST by Luke Adams

After the Timberwolves snapped a 14-year playoff drought last spring, only seven NBA teams entered the 2018/19 season having not reached the postseason at all since 2015. Three of those teams – the Nets, Magic, and Nuggets – have secured playoff berths, meaning that 26 NBA clubs have now earned postseason berths at least once in the four-year period from 2016-19.

That leaves the following four teams with the NBA’s longest playoff droughts:

Sacramento Kings (last playoff appearance in 2006)
Phoenix Suns (2010)
Los Angeles Lakers (2013)
New York Knicks (2013)

None of those teams ultimately came very close to reaching the postseason this season, but the Kings will finish the closest. After holding onto one of the top eight spots in the Western Conference for much of 2018/19, Sacramento has struggled down the stretch — the team is just 9-15 since the All-Star break. Still, the Kings will end up ninth in the West and feature an impressive collection of young talent, led by De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley. There’s plenty of reason for optimism going forward.

The Lakers will finish right behind Sacramento in the West, though L.A.’s young core wasn’t nearly as impressive in 2018/19 as the Kings’ group. Armed with cap room and trade chips this offseason, the Lakers will make every effort to add a second star to complement LeBron James, which would put them in a good position to return to the playoffs next season. Of course, there’s no guarantee the club will land that kind of star, and if James’ health issues in ’18/19 are a harbinger of things to come, the Lakers are no lock to rebound next year.

Further down the Western Conference standings, the Suns will win fewer than 25 games for the fourth straight season. The team is starting to put together a nice group of long-term building blocks, led by Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges. However, the Suns have yet to experience a Kings-like breakout season. Phoenix will add another top prospect in June’s draft and is expected to have some flexibility in free agency, so perhaps that will happen in 2019/20.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are perhaps the NBA’s biggest wild card heading into the 2019 offseason. The club has the cap room necessary to sign, say, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and doing so would make New York a near-lock to return to the playoffs a year from now. On the other hand, if the Knicks strike out in free agency, or end up with a couple second- or third-tier stars, their position will be far more tenuous.

What do you think? Which of these four perennial lottery teams do you expect to return to the postseason first? Is there a team that will have to wait another two or three years (or more) to end its drought?

Head below to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/30/19 – 4/6/19

April 6th, 2019 at 5:23pm CST by Arthur Hill

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Listed below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Luke Adams broke down how the Eastern Conference playoffs could affect free agency decisions.
He also examined Western free agents who have increased their value.
We looked at important dates and deadlines for this year’s draft.
We had an overview of the 10-day contracts that were issued this year.
This week’s Community Shootaround asked about Jimmy Butler’s future.
We identified the teams that still have roster openings.
We opened our glossary to the Ted Stepien Rule.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southwest Division

April 5th, 2019 at 8:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southwest Division:

Dorian Finney-Smith, Mavericks, 25, SF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM deal in 2016
The Mavericks can make Finney-Smith a restricted free agent by extending $1.93MM qualifying offer. That’s small change by NBA standards but there’s no guarantee they’ll do it. Finney-Smith has been a rotation player throughout his third season in the NBA with trades and injuries opening up playing time. He’s averaging 7.4 PPG and 4.7 RPG in 24.4 MPG and still hasn’t developed a 3-point shot (31.9%), though his defensive ratings are on the plus side. Finney-Smith seems like a second-unit player going forward, whether it’s with the Mavs or elsewhere.

Jonas Valanciunas, Grizzlies, 26, C (Up) — Signed to a four-year, $64MM deal in 2016
Valanciunas was putting up silly numbers with Memphis before a Grade 2 ankle sprain sidelined him for the remainder of the season. He was averaging 19.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 1.6 BPG in just 27.7 MPG in 19 games since being traded by the Raptors. Of course, it’s easier to do that on a bad team, but it certainly added an element of mystery to Valanciunas’ offseason plans. It seemed a safe bet that Valanciunas would exercise his player option for a guaranteed $17.6MM. He might choose now to test the market and gain long-term security, even if he makes a few million less next season.

Iman Shumpert, Rockets, 28, SG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $40MM deal in 2015
Shumpert made his money with his current contract. He won’t be receiving any $11MM-per-year offers this summer. His 2017/18 season was a washout due to knee and foot injuries. He’s managed to stay on the court this season but his impact has been minimal. The Kings dealt him to Houston in a three-team trade in February and Shumpert has shot 29% from long range in 18 games with the Rockets. Shumpert’s 34% career average from deep is subpar and he’s never posted a PER above 12 in any season. He’ll likely be looking at veteran’s minimum offers this summer.

Stanley Johnson, Pelicans, 22, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $12.85MM deal in 2015
Johnson was a colossal disappointment with the Pistons after a promising rookie campaign. A change of scenery, via a deadline trade, offered Johnson a fresh start. But he hasn’t been much better with New Orleans than he was in Detroit. Johnson’s strength is his perimeter defense and ability to guard a variety of positions, but he’s got to become more of an offensive threat for his career to blossom. The Pelicans can make him a restricted free agent by extending a $4.5MM qualify offer. One of the things their new GM must decide is whether to give the 22-year-old Johnson another year to improve his game.

Rudy Gay, Spurs, 32, PF (Up)– Signed to a one-year, $10.1MM deal in 2018
Quietly, Gay has delivered one of the best seasons of his career. His field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage are career highs. His rebounding average (6.8) is second only to his 7.4 mark in 2013/14, when he played 8.7 more minutes per game. His PER is a rock-solid 17.8. All the more impressive is that Gay tore his Achilles two seasons ago at age 30, an injury from which many players never fully recover. Gay may attract some interest from a contender seeking another veteran piece but the likely scenario is San Antonio rewarding him with a two- or three-year deal.

Eastern Conference Semifinals Will Have Major Offseason Implications

April 5th, 2019 at 3:22pm CST by Luke Adams

Not every list of 2019’s top 10 NBA free agents will look the same, but it’s a safe bet that all of those lists will include Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard and Celtics guard Kyrie Irving. It’s hard to imagine leaving Sixers forward Jimmy Butler or Tobias Harris out of the top 10 either. And after his first All-Star season, Bucks sharpshooter Khris Middleton deserves a spot in that group too.

In other words, five of the top 10 players expected to reach unrestricted free agency this summer are on the four teams currently atop the Eastern Conference: Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Boston. Throw in veteran marksmen J.J. Redick (Sixers) and Danny Green (Raptors), as well as key Bucks contributors Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez, and you could put together an awfully talented rotation of free-agents-to-be among those four Eastern contenders.

Those four teams have something else in common, besides having standout players in contract years: They’ll all be disappointed if they don’t make it beyond the second round of the postseason.

The Bucks haven’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2001, but this year’s group looks like it has NBA Finals potential. Milwaukee has clinched the NBA’s best record, has a winning record against all its potential postseason opponents, and features the odds-on favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award, in Giannis Antetokounmpo. A second-round exit would be a letdown.

Right behind them are the Raptors, who blew up last year’s 59-win team with an eye toward making a deeper playoff run. With newcomers like Leonard, Green, and Marc Gasol in Toronto to lead the way – and Raptor-killer LeBron James no longer in the picture – this is another team that feels as if it has a real chance of advancing to the Finals. After a season of nagging injuries and load management, Toronto seems to be getting healthy and coming together at the right time.

While Milwaukee and Toronto are the odds-on favorites to represent the East in the Finals, the Sixers and Celtics certainly shouldn’t be overlooked. Philadelphia has gone all-in on its star-studded starting five, and owner Josh Harris has said that the Sixers want to “at minimum” advance deeper in the playoffs than they did last year, when they were knocked out in the second round by Boston. As for those Celtics, they entered the 2018/19 season as the Eastern frontrunners, and still believe they’re the team to beat if they’re playing up to their potential.

The Pacers and the rest of the conference’s still-to-be-decided playoff teams will be looking to play spoiler, but regardless of whether any of those clubs can pull off an upset, no more than two of the Bucks, Raptors, Sixers, and Celtics can advance past the Eastern Conference Semifinals. And the outcome of that round figures to have a significant impact on the NBA’s offseason landscape.

If the Raptors are bounced in the second round, it’s hard to imagine Leonard seriously considering a return. A second-round loss for the Celtics would cast even more doubt on the idea of Irving re-signing in Boston. There’s already some skepticism that the Sixers will bring back both Harris and Butler, and an ECF loss would make that an even less likely scenario. The Bucks, who have exceeded expectations this season, are probably the club least likely to undergo major offseason changes, but Middleton will be a popular target in free agency — if Milwaukee is knocked off in round two, it could increase his willingness to test the open market.

On the other hand, the team that makes a run all the way to the NBA Finals will be in a far more secure position entering free agency. If Irving is on the fence about Boston, winning the East would definitely help convince him that the Celtics are capable of continuing to win going forward. Ditto for Leonard and the Raptors.

The idea that a team’s postseason success can influence a top free agent’s offseason decision is a common one. This spring in the Eastern Conference, we’ll get an opportunity to see just how big a factor that is for a handful of star players, as at least two teams are set to fall short of their playoff goals.

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