Hoops Rumors Originals

Checking In On Protected 2019 First Round Picks

With just over two weeks left in the 2018/19 regular season, we’re getting a clearer picture of what this year’s draft order might look like. We’re also getting a pretty clear sense of which of the traded 2019 picks with protections will or won’t change hands this spring.

Using our 2018/19 Reverse Standings as a reference point, here’s our latest check-in on where things stand for those traded 2019 first-rounders, based on their protections.

Locks to change hands:

  • Kings‘ pick to Celtics (unprotected)
    • Current projection: No. 14
    • Note: Pick will instead be sent to Sixers if it jumps to No. 1 (current odds: 0.5%)
  • Clippers‘ pick to Celtics (top-14 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 22
  • Rockets‘ pick to Cavaliers (top-14 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 25
  • Nuggets‘ pick to Nets (top-12 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 27
  • Raptors‘ pick to Spurs (top-20 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 29

The Raptors‘ and Nuggets‘ have been sure bets to change hands all season long. The Rockets‘ and Clippers‘ picks have now joined them in that group due to impressive surges by both teams — Houston has won 14 of its last 16 games and clinched a playoff spot last night, while the Clippers have lost just one of their last 11 contests. Both of those picks appear likely to end up in the 20s.

The Kings, meanwhile, will definitely lose their first-round selection, but its eventual destination is the only unresolved question for this group of picks. The Sixers will receive it if it’s No. 1 overall; otherwise it will head to the Celtics. As long as Sacramento remains at No. 14 in the lottery order, the odds of the pick jumping all the way up to No. 1 would be just 0.5%, so it’s probably safe to assume it’ll end up in Boston.

Locks to be protected:

  • Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks (top-10 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 3
  • Bucks‘ pick to Suns (top-3 and 17-30 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 30

The Cavaliers are unlikely to fall further than No. 4 in the lottery order, which means the furthest that their pick could slip would be to No. 8. They’ll keep their pick, and will owe the Hawks a top-10 protected pick in 2020.

As for the Bucks, they’ll almost certainly convey the first-rounder they owe to the Suns next season, when it’s just top-7 protected.

Still up in the air:

  • Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics (top-8 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 6/7 (tie)
  • Mavericks‘ pick to Hawks (top-5 protected)
    • Current projection: No. 6/7 (tie)

Currently, the Grizzlies and Mavericks are deadlocked at 29-44, so the final nine games for the two teams could go a long way toward determining whether or not they’ll keep their first-rounders. The Celtics and Hawks could each end up receiving top-10 picks, depending on how things play out.

The Grizzlies would actually prefer to convey that pick this year so that they can move forward with their rebuild without worrying about a future commitment. If they can win some games down the stretch, their odds of giving up that first-rounder should increase drastically — Washington (30-44) and New Orleans (31-44) are both bunched up with Memphis and Dallas in the 6-9 range of the lottery standings.

The difference between finishing sixth and ninth in the lottery order is significant. The No. 6 team will have a 37.2% chance at a top-five pick and a 96.2% chance of remaining in the top eight. The No. 9 team will have just a 20.2% chance of moving up.

This race is one worth keeping a close eye during the final two weeks of the season, though each pick’s owner won’t be officially finalized until lottery night.

Information from RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

Five Key Stories: 3/16/19 – 3/23/19

If you missed any of this past week’s biggest headlines from around the NBA, we’ve got you covered with our Week in Review. Here are some of the most noteworthy stories from the last seven days:

After nearly three years away from the NBA, Jimmer Fredette has returned with the Phoenix Suns. Fredette developed into a star in China, leading the CBA in scoring this season at 36.9 PPG. He will be trying to revive his NBA career after being the 10th player taken in the 2011 draft.

The Suns’ search for a new GM heated up this week with a couple of prominent names rumored to be candidates. Phoenix has reportedly spoken to TNT analyst Kevin McHale and has interest in Bulls consultant Jim Paxson. The Suns have been operating without a full-fledged GM since firing Ryan McDonough in October.

Clippers coach Doc Rivers pledged his loyalty to the franchise, saying he plans to remain in his position for a “long time.” Rivers shot down rumors that he might consider joining the Lakers, saying he still has work left to do with the Clippers.

The Bucks were hit with three significant injuries this week as they try to hold on to the top spot in the East. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to be sidelined through at least the first round of the playoffs with a minor plantar fascia tear in his right foot, Nikola Mirotic will miss 2-4 weeks with a fractured thumb and Pau Gasol is out for about a month with an injured ankle.

The Trail Blazers may have sidestepped a major injury when C.J. McCollum was diagnosed with a popliteus strain in his left knee. McCollum will be re-evaluated this week to determine how much time he will miss.

Here are 10 more headlines from the past week:

  • The Lakers got good news about Brandon Ingram, who underwent surgery on his right arm for a blood clot condition. Surgeons removed the clot and he is expected to recover within 3-4 months.
  • Timberwolves guard Derrick Rose had arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow. Rose stayed healthy for most of this season and averaged 18.0 PPG, putting him in the race for Sixth Man of the Year.
  • In addition to Rose, the Timberwolves declared Robert Covington and Jeff Teague out for the season. Covington hasn’t played since December 31 due to a right knee bone bruise, while Teague is dealing with an injured left foot.
  • Mavericks guard Tim Hardaway Jr. will miss the rest of the season because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. He played just 19 games for Dallas after being acquired from the Knicks.
  • The Grizzlies will finish the season without C.J. Miles, who has a stress reaction in his left foot. Miles appeared in 13 games for Memphis after being acquired from the Raptors in the Marc Gasol trade last month.
  • The Pelicans claimed Christian Wood off waivers and parted ways with veteran forward Jason Smith. The Bucks waived Wood to make room for Tim Frazier, who was cut by New Orleans last month.
  • A report suggested that the Jazz and Grizzlies may revisit trade talks this summer involving Mike Conley. Utah was considered among the front-runners to land Conley, but the teams couldn’t work out a deal before the deadline.
  • The Spurs are close to bringing Donatas Motiejunas back to the NBA after two seasons in China. The 28-year-old is reportedly nearing a deal with San Antonio.
  • Sophomore center Daniel Gafford of Arkansas will enter the NBA draft and hire an agent. He was considered a possible first-round pick last year, but now projects at the top of the second round.
  • Jason Terry is the latest former NBA star to join the BIG3. The 41-year-old had hoped to play another NBA season, but never received an offer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/16/19 – 3/23/19

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Listed below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southeast Division

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southeast Division:

Justin Anderson, Hawks, 25, SG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $7MM deal in 2015
The Hawks can make Anderson a restricted free agent if they extend a $3.62MM qualifying offer. Anderson hasn’t given them much incentive to do so since they acquired him in an offseason trade with Philadelphia. Anderson is getting fewer minutes off the bench than ageless wonder Vince Carter, with under six minutes per game in seven March appearances. A recent report indicated that the Hawks would be aggressive in free agency. Renouncing Anderson’s rights would give them more elbow room to pursue top-tier players.

Shelvin Mack, Hornets, 28, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2018
It’s rare when NBA players are claimed off waivers. Mack proved to be an exception after the Grizzlies traded him to the Hawks last month, who weren’t interested in retaining his services. The Hornets were looking for some insurance behind backup Tony Parker, but Mack has been mostly a spectator. He’s appeared in just three games since the waiver claim after receiving steady minutes on Memphis’ second unit. Mack will be shopping around for a one-year minimum deal once again this offseason.

Derrick Jones Jr., Heat,, 22, SF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $3.16MM deal in 2018
The Heat have an August 1 deadline to guarantee Jones’ $1.645MM salary for next season. Considering that Jones is a young rotation player, that would seem to be an easy decision. Jones remains a work in progress offensively but advanced metrics indicate he’s making a defensive impact. His Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating, according to Basketball-Reference is a solid 1.4. Jones is shooting 49% from the field, mainly due to the fact that 54% of his attempts have come within three feet of the basket. He’s averaging 21.5 MPG in March, a sign of trust from coach Erik Spoelstra.

Nikola Vucevic, Magic, 28, C (Up) — Signed to a four-year, $53MM deal in 2015
There have been conflicting reports whether Dallas will make a big push for Orlando’s big man this summer. No doubt, there will be a market for Vucevic’s services. He’s averaging career highs of 20.6 PPG and 12.2 RPG in his walk year and coach Steve Clifford adds that Vucevic essentially gives the team “two point guards” when he’s on the floor. Vucevic isn’t considered a defensive stalwart but his Defensive Box rating this season is a career-high 3.7. Vucevic won’t get a max-level offer but he’ll be making a lot more than $12.75MM next season.

Sam Dekker, Wizards, 24, SF (Down)– Signed to a four-year, $7.9MM deal in 2015
Dekker could be a restricted free agent this summer if the Wizards extend a $3.91MM qualifying offer. That’s not going to happen, as Dekker hasn’t been any better in Washington than he was in three other NBA stops. The 18th overall pick in the 2015 draft has made 33 appearances with the Wizards since he was acquired from Cleveland in early December. He’s averaging 5.9 PPG in 15.4 MPG, but shooting just 29.4% from deep and 51.6% from the foul line. Dekker’s expectations should be modest in the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Will Kemba Walker Re-Sign With Hornets?

When longtime Hornets beat reporter Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer addressed Kemba Walker‘s contract situation in a column this past Sunday, his piece opened with a compelling lede.

“I no longer think it’s likely Kemba Walker re-signs with the Charlotte Hornets,” Bonnell wrote. “More importantly, I no longer can give you a strong argument why he should.”

Walker has had another terrific season in Charlotte, averaging a career-high 25.0 PPG to go along with 5.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, and 1.3 SPG. On a team that features no clear second-best player, Kemba earned All-Star honors for a third straight year and has single-handedly kept Charlotte in the playoff race.

Walker has also repeatedly expressed a desire to remain in Charlotte, despite the fact that the team hasn’t won a playoff series since he arrived in 2011. The Hornets have reciprocated that interest — after briefly gauging the trade market for the star point guard prior to the 2018 trade deadline, the team replaced GM Rich Cho with Mitch Kupchak, who has maintained since his hiring that he wants to retain Walker going forward.

Still, with the Hornets’ playoff hopes fading fast and unrestricted free agency right around the corner, Walker definitely can’t be considered a lock to stay, Bonnell writes. While Charlotte could offer him more years and dollars than any rival suitor, doing so would make it that much harder to build a contender around him in the coming years, as Bonnell observes. And Kemba, who turns 29 in May, figures to be seeking an opportunity to contend as he decides where he wants to spend his next few years.

A looming All-NBA decision could have an impact on the summer negotiations between Walker and the Hornets. If he earns an All-NBA spot, the former UConn standout would be eligible for a five-year deal that starts at up to 35% of the cap, rather than 30%. The difference would work out to a projected $31MM+ over those five years. Would the Hornets put that offer on the table if they’re able to? Would it sway Walker’s decision? It’s hard to say at this point, but it’s a factor worth considering.

If Walker seriously considers other teams, there should be no shortage of outside options for him. The Knicks and Mavericks are among the clubs that have been most frequently cited as possible suitors, but there will be many more teams with the ability to open maximum-salary cap room. And there are just as many teams that could use a guard with Walker’s scoring, shooting, and play-making abilities.

What do you think? Will Walker ultimately decide to stick with the Hornets after another disappointing season in Charlotte? Or do you expect the three-time All-Star to move on and sign with a new team this summer?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your two cents on Walker’s future.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Defensive Player Of The Year

Around the NBA, the field of legit contenders in many of this year’s award races has been narrowed to just one or two players. It’s hard to imagine anyone besides Giannis Antetokounmpo or James Harden being named Most Valuable Player. Trae Young looks like the only real threat to Luka Doncic for Rookie of the Year. And Lou Williams appears to be tightening his grip on a second consecutive Sixth Man of the Year award.

However, no clear frontrunner has emerged yet for Defensive Player of the Year. The award is typically one of the trickier ones to forecast, since voters have to rely on much different metrics and statistics than they would for most of the NBA’s other accolades. With so many different ways to measure a player’s defensive impact, it’s impossible to rely on a single stat, and it’s rare that every defensive metric will point to a single candidate.

For instance, Rudy Gobert – last season’s Defensive Player of the Year – figures to be a popular choice again this time around. In terms of defensive real plus-minus, he easily ranks first among players who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game. He’s also tied for fourth in total defensive win shares. However, his on/off-court numbers suggest that the Jazz have actually been a slightly better defensive team when Gobert isn’t on the court — their 103.1 defensive rating when he sits edges out their 103.5 rating when he plays.

Joel Embiid, on the other hand, ranks far down the list in DRPM, but has more defensive win shares per game than Gobert, and the Sixers have a noticeably better defensive rating when he plays (103.1) than when he doesn’t (107.7).

Antetokounmpo, who ranks first in the NBA in defensive win shares, isn’t necessarily the same sort of rim-protecting anchor that Gobert and Embiid are, but he can play that role if needed, in addition to chasing more active players around the perimeter.

Marcus Smart and Paul George are two of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders, and you could make an argument in favor of either player this season. George’s case is particularly compelling, given the quality of the players he has matched up against, and his impact on the Thunder‘s defensive net rating (102.8 when he plays vs. 107.4 when he doesn’t).

This list of players – and statistics – is just a start, as there are several other candidates who deserve consideration for 2018/19’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

What do you think? Who is your pick for Defensive Player of the Year? Is there an under-the-radar contender you believe deserves the honor? Which factors do you believe should be weighed more or less heavily when making a selection?

Head below the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Sign-And-Trades

Each year when July rolls around, a ton of NBA free agents sign new contracts and teams around the league consummate trades. However, on a few occasions, these two forms of transactions are combined into something called a sign-and-trade deal. Sign-and-trades occur when a team re-signs its own free agent, only to immediately send him to another team in exchange for players, draft picks, and/or cash.

In order for a sign-and-trade deal to be completed, the following criteria must be met:

  • A free agent must be signed-and-traded by the team with whom he finished the season. For instance, the Sixers could sign-and-trade Jimmy Butler this offseason, but another team couldn’t sign Butler and immediately move him.
  • If the free agent is restricted, he can’t be signed-and-traded after he signs an offer sheet with a rival team.
  • A team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade cannot be over the tax apron after the deal, and can’t have used the taxpayer mid-level exception.
  • A free agent can’t be signed-and-traded once the regular season is underway.
  • A free agent can’t be signed using the mid-level exception or any exception that doesn’t allow for a three-year contract.
  • A player receiving a Designated Veteran contract can’t be signed-and-traded.

Sign-and-trade contracts can be worth any amount up to the player’s maximum salary (with 5% annual raises), and must be for either three or four years. However, only the first year of the deal has to be fully guaranteed.

If a sign-and-trade contract includes a signing bonus, either team can agree to pay it, though if the signing team pays it, it counts toward that club’s limit for cash included in trades for that league year. As for trade bonuses, they would kick in upon any subsequent trades rather than as part of the sign-and-trade transaction itself.

Under some previous Collective Bargaining Agreements, there was more incentive for players to work out sign-and-trade deals, since the contract restrictions weren’t as strict. For example, when Kevin Durant hits free agency this summer, he’d be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to a projected $221.27MM if he re-signs with the Warriors, but only four years and approximately $164MM with another team.

Prior to 2011’s CBA agreement, Durant could have received that five-year deal if Golden State had signed-and-traded him. But if the Dubs sign-and-trade KD this summer, he’d only be eligible for that four-year, $164MM max.

Under the current CBA, there’s less incentive for teams and players to participate in sign-and-trades. Generally, if a player wants to change teams, it makes more sense for him to sign with the new team outright, rather than making that club give up assets to complete the acquisition. Even the player’s old team may prefer to simply let the free agent walk and claim the resulting cap space, rather than taking back unwanted assets in a sign-and-trade.

There are other roadblocks as well. A team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade subsequently becomes hard-capped for the rest of that league year. Plus, a signed-and-traded player’s salary may be viewed differently than it would be in a standard trade for salary-matching purposes, which can compromise a team’s ability to meet those salary-matching requirements.

If a potential suitor is over the cap and under the tax, and wants to sign a player for more than the mid-level amount, then a sign-and-trade could make sense, particularly if that team can offer the free agent’s prior team something of value. But these transactions are becoming less frequent than they once were.

Since the summer of 2015, only four players have been involved in sign-and-trade deals: Kyle O’Quinn (2015), Troy Daniels (2016), Matthew Dellavedova (2016), and Danilo Gallinari (2017). No sign-and-trades were completed during the 2018/19 league year.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

An earlier version of this post was published in 2013 by Luke Adams.

How End Of G League Season Affects Two-Way Players

As we detail in our glossary entry on two-way contracts, players on two-way deals are limited to 45 days of NBA service per season (or a prorated portion of 45 days, if they sign during the season).

That means a team can’t simply carry a two-way player on its active roster all season long — in order to maximize that player’s value, the club will likely transfer him back and forth between the NBA and the G League for much of the season, getting the most out of his days on the NBA squad.

[RELATED: 2018/19 NBA Two-Way Contract Tracker]

However, there’s one crucial workaround for that 45-day limit. Here’s how it’s written in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement:

“If a player provides one or more NBA Days of Service before the first day of any NBADL training camp or after the final game of the player’s team’s NBADL Regular Season, such day(s) will not count toward the 45-Day Two-Way Service Limit.”

In other words, once a player’s G League team finishes its regular season schedule, the player is free to rejoin his NBA team without having to worry about the 45-day service limit — even if the NBAGL squad is playoff-bound.

The NBA G League schedule runs through the end of this week, with 24 of the league’s 27 teams playing their final games of the regular season on Saturday. That means that after Saturday, a player like Damion Lee will be able to stay on the Warriors‘ active roster without having to worry about his 45-day clock continuing to tick.

Although two-way players will be free to play for NBA teams without service time concerns after this Saturday, they still won’t be eligible to participate in the playoffs unless they’re signed to standard NBA contracts before the end of the regular season, as we’ve previously outlined. So if Golden State wants to have Lee on its postseason roster, the team will need to open up a roster spot and convert his contract before April 10.

Community Shootaround: March Madness

At Hoops Rumors, we typically focus on the NBA, with virtually all of our content centered around current, former, and future NBA players. At this time of year though, with the trade deadline behind us, most of this season’s playoff teams set, and the postseason still a few weeks away, it makes sense to shift that focus – at least in part – to the NCAA.

2019’s NCAA tournament gets underway today, and March Madness will feature a number of future NBA players this year, including budding star Zion Williamson. Many of those top draft prospects can be found in a handful of blue-blood programs — besides Williamson, Duke’s lineup features R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones, all of whom could be first-round picks. Williamson, Barrett, and Reddish, in fact, could all come off the board in the top five.

As USA Today’s basketball writers detail though, while Zion may be the main event, there are plenty of other prospects worth watching in this year’s tournament, including Murray State’s Ja Morant, Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver, Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter, Maryland’s Bruno Fernando.

Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports identifies several other under-the-radar prospects who have a chance to make a name for themselves – and improve their draft stock – with strong showings in this month’s tournament. Iowa State’s Marial Shayok, Washington’s Matisse Thybulle, and Michigan’s Ignas Brazdeikis are among the names on Goodwill’s list.

Meanwhile, Danny Chau of The Ringer offers a guide to watching the NCAA tournament as an NBA fan. Besides watching big-name prospects like Williamson and Morant, Chau suggests monitoring a pair of Tennessee youngsters (Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield), two Iowa State freshmen (Talen Horton-Tucker and Tyrese Haliburton), and a few sleepers, including LSU’s Naz Reid and Auburn’s Chuma Okeke.

Of course, even if you’re not necessarily interested in projecting how certain prospects will translate to the NBA, March Madness should offer plenty of drama and intrigue — not to mention a great opportunity to show off your basketball knowledge in your office pool.

With March Madness set to tip off today, we want to know what you’re looking forward to watching in this year’s tournament. Are there certain teams or players you’re keeping an eye on? Which teams are you picking to advance to the Final Four?

Head below to the comment section to weigh in with your two cents on this year’s NCAA tournament!

Poll: Will Any Designated Veteran Extensions Be Signed In 2019?

The NBA’s Designated Veteran extension, introduced in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, allows a player who would normally qualify for a maximum salary worth 30% of the cap to receive a salary worth 35% of the cap if he meets certain criteria related to performance and service time.

Assuming he meets the service-time requirements, earning an All-NBA spot is the most common way for a player to become eligible for a Designated Veteran contract. And, as we explained earlier today, at least a couple players appear to be in good position to gain eligibility for this form of contract – colloquially known as the “super-max” – by making an All-NBA team this spring.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, who would be the best bet for a super-max extension, will gain eligibility this year, but won’t technically be allowed to sign a new deal until 2020, since he doesn’t have the necessary seven years of NBA experience. With a Giannis super-max not possible for at least one more year, it’s not clear whether any Designated Veteran extensions will actually be signed in 2019.

Here are the only realistic candidates:

  • Anthony Davis (Pelicans): Like Giannis, Davis qualified for a super-max deal a year before he was officially eligible to sign it, so it doesn’t matter whether or not he earns All-NBA honors this season. However, given AD’s desire to leave the Pelicans, a Designated Veteran extension looks like a real long shot anyway.
  • Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers): Once he’s named to an All-NBA team this year, Lillard will become eligible to sign a four-year, maximum-salary extension. The only issue? It wouldn’t go into effect until the 2021/22 season, when Lillard will be 31 years old. Committing a $45MM+ annual salary to a player is scary enough — doing it two years in advance to lock up a player for his age 31-34 seasons is scarier. The Trail Blazers would have to think long and hard about whether to make such an offer.
  • Bradley Beal (Wizards) / Kemba Walker (Hornets) / Klay Thompson (Warriors): It’s possible Beal, Walker, and Thompson will all miss out on an All-NBA spot this year, in which case none of them would be DVE-eligible. But if any of them do land on an All-NBA team, they’d qualify. Beal, like Lillard, would be eligible for a four-year extension starting in 2021/22, while free-agents-to-be Walker and Thompson would immediately be eligible to sign five-year, $220MM+ contracts with their current clubs.

Most of the other All-NBA contenders won’t meet the other required criteria for a Designated Veteran extension, based on their contract situations. The only exceptions are borderline All-NBA candidates such as Nikola Vucevic (Magic) or Andre Drummond (Pistons), who likely wouldn’t be serious super-max candidates even if they qualify.

When the Designated Veteran extension was introduced in 2017, four players – Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and John Wall – received them in fairly quick succession. No player has signed once since though, and based on this year’s top candidates, there’s no guarantee that will change anytime soon.

What do you think? Will any of the players mentioned in the list above sign a super-max contract in 2019, or will we go another year without one?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.