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Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/2/19 – 3/9/19

March 9th, 2019 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Listed below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Community Shootaround: Most Improved Player

March 8th, 2019 at 9:58pm CST by Luke Adams

There’s still more than a month left in the NBA’s 2018/19 regular season, but D’Angelo Russell already has a prediction for the 2019 Most Improved Player award.

“I’m gonna win that s–t,” Russell recently told Anthony Puccio of SNY.tv. “Watch. Put it on record. I’m gonna win it.”

Russell is a legit candidate for the Most Improved Player award, having emerged as perhaps the Nets‘ most valuable player this season after a so-so first year in Brooklyn. He has drastically improved his shooting efficiency and earned his first All-Star nod last month.

Still, Russell isn’t the leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award. That honor might belong to Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who has more than doubled his scoring average and become the third-most important player on the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed.

Kings guard De’Aaron Fox is another strong contender. After an inconsistent rookie season, the 21-year-old is putting up big numbers (17.2 PPG, 7.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) for one of the league’s most surprising teams.

Domantas Sabonis and John Collins are among the other youngsters who have taken major steps forward this season, while established veterans like Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Vucevic have taken their games to another level — George and Antetokounmpo are legit MVP candidates for the first time and Vucevic is in the All-NBA conversation. They’re just a few of the players who could have a case to be included in the MIP conversation.

Most Improved Player is one of the most difficult NBA awards to define. Should a player like Fox receive serious consideration even though second-year players (and former top-five picks) are expected to improve significantly from year one to two? Should Siakam’s contributions to one of the NBA’s top teams be weighted far more heavily than they would if he were on a lottery team, as is the case for the MVP award?

How about cases like George’s and Antetokounmpo’s? Is the leap from star to superstar more or less worthy of Most Improved Player consideration than a third- or fourth-year player making the jump from rotation player to borderline All-Star?

With no clear guidelines to follow, it’s often to left to a voter’s discretion how best to define what it means to be the NBA’s most improved player. In tonight’s Community Shootaround discussion, we want to know which factors you consider most heavily, and which player you’d pick to win in 2018/19 as a result.

What do you think? Who is your current pick for 2019’s Most Improved Player? What sort of players do you believe should receive the most serious consideration? Are there certain criteria you believe should be weighted more heavily than others?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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No NBA Teams Below Salary Floor For 2018/19

March 8th, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The salary cap line and the luxury tax threshold receive far more attention, but there’s another noteworthy level of spending that NBA teams must adhere to each season: the minimum salary floor.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the subject, the league’s salary floor means that a club to spend at least 90% of the salary cap on player salaries. For instance, with the 2018/19 cap set at $101,869,000, the salary floor for this season is $91,682,100.

If a team finishes the regular season below the NBA’s salary floor for that league year, the penalty isn’t harsh — the franchise is simply required to make up the shortfall by paying the difference to its players. For example, if a team finished this season with a team salary of $88,682,100, that team would be required to distribute that $3MM shortfall among its players.

In contrast to most recent NBA seasons though, no teams are currently projected to fall below the league’s salary floor for 2018/19.

The Mavericks appear on the surface to be below the salary floor — Basketball Insiders’ data lists their current team salary as $89,266,661, making them the only team with a payroll below $100MM.

However, when determining whether a team has reached the salary floor, the NBA considers how much the club has actually paid to players over the course of the season, rather than the team’s current cap figure. And when a team makes trades during the season, that team only owes its incoming players their remaining prorated salaries, having already paid its outgoing players a prorated portion of their salaries.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Proration]

In Dallas’ case, the club made a pair of trades prior to last month’s deadline – one with the Knicks and one with the Kings – that reduced team salary considerably.

Because of the prorated money the Mavericks had paid to those outgoing players during the first two-thirds of the season – including nearly $16MM to Harrison Barnes and almost $14MM to DeAndre Jordan – there’s a significant gap between their current team salary (about $89MM) and the salaries they’ve actually paid. By my count, the Mavs are currently on the hook for about $99MM in total player salaries for 2018/19 once all the prorated figures have been calculated.

Conversely, the Kings carried a team salary below the floor for much of the season, but a trio of deadline deals – most notably that one with Dallas involving Barnes – helped pushed them above the floor.

According to Basketball Insiders, Sacramento currently has a team salary of $104,029,182. Based on my math, the Kings will actually only pay about $97MM in player salaries once the prorated figures for the likes of Barnes, Alec Burks, and others are taken into account. Either way, they’ll easily clear the 2018/19 salary floor.

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Poll: Will LeBron James Become NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer?

March 7th, 2019 at 3:07pm CST by Luke Adams

LeBron James reached another major milestone on Wednesday night, surpassing Michael Jordan on the NBA’s all-time points list. With 32,311 career points, James is now the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, trailing only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387), Karl Malone (36,928), and Kobe Bryant (33,643).

James’ latest achievement is a reminder that the NBA’s all-time scoring lead remains within reach. LeBron just turned 34 years old in December and has three more years remaining on his contract with the Lakers after 2018/19. While this season has turned into a disaster, the four-time MVP still looks like he has plenty left on the tank, having averaged 27.1 PPG in his first year as a Laker.

Currently, the gap between Abdul-Jabbar’s points total and James’ stands at 6,076. In his first 15 NBA seasons leading up to 2018/19, LeBron averaged 2,069 points per season. If he were to continue at that rate for three more years, he’d become the league’s all-time leading scorer before his contract with the Lakers expires.

Despite James’ impressive durability and longevity over the years, however, it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to continue scoring at that rate. This season, for instance, even if he plays in every single one of the Lakers’ remaining 17 games and maintains his 27.1 PPG scoring average, he’d end up with 1,733 points due to the groin injury that cost him more than a month.

It’s fair to assume that nagging injuries could become a more frequent issue for James in his age-35 season and beyond, and his production figures to dip a little during that stretch as well. Even if we assume LeBron is capable of averaging 1,500 points per season going forward (about 23 PPG in 65 games per year), it would be 2023 before he catches up to Abdul-Jabbar. He’d be 38 years old at that point, so there’s not a ton of room for error (or, say, any season-ending injuries).

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that taking over the NBA’s all-time scoring lead is a realistic goal for LeBron. He’ll likely have to stay relatively healthy and continue playing at a high level for at least two or three more years – or be willing to play until he’s 40 – to have a legit shot, but that certainly seems possible.

What do you think? Do you expect LeBron to retire as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, or will he ultimately end up second or third? And if he claims that No. 1 spot, do you view any current players as serious threats to pass him?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

March 7th, 2019 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place every spring between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold their first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four picks in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5%
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5%
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0%
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5%
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0%
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5%
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0%
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0%
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5%
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0%
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
8 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
10 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
11 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
13 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

It’s worth noting that the NBA’s lottery format was recently changed, with 2019’s draft representing the first one that will use the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery, and the odds were weighted more in favor of the league’s worst teams.

For instance, in 2018, when the league-worst Suns landed the first overall pick, they had a 25.0% chance to receive that No. 1 selection heading into the lottery, and couldn’t have dropped further than No. 4 (35.8%). In 2019, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14.0% chance at the top pick and will have a 47.9% chance of falling all the way to No. 5.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2013.

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Playoff Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 6th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors became the latest NBA team to fill their final open roster spot today, signing Andrew Bogut to a rest-of-season deal. The move made Golden State the ninth club currently holding a postseason spot to fill its 15-man roster.

Between now and April 10, more teams figure to join that list. During the regular season, there are benefits to carrying 14 – or even 13 – players for long stretches, particularly for healthy teams with luxury-tax concerns. But when the postseason rolls around, there’s little downside to filling the entire roster, even if it just means adding a 15th man during the final week (or day) of the season.

With that in mind, here are the teams in the top eight in each conference that still have at least one open spot on their 15-man rosters and could make a move or two in the coming weeks:

Playoff teams with multiple open roster spots:

  • Toronto Raptors (2)
  • Houston Rockets (2)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The Raptors, Rockets, and Thunder will all be required to sign at least one more player in the coming weeks to ensure that they get back up to the NBA-mandated minimum of 14 players. Houston may actually need to make multiple moves, since a third open spot would open on the Rockets’ roster once Terrence Jones‘ latest 10-day contract expires.

Playoff teams with one open roster spot:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Brooklyn Nets *

While the Celtics, Clippers, and Spurs each have one open roster spot, the Nets actually have a full 15-man squad for now. That could change as soon as Friday though, as Tahjere McCall‘s 10-day deal with Brooklyn is set to expire overnight on Thursday.

Playoff contenders with at least one open roster spot:

  • Miami Heat (2)
  • Sacramento Kings (1)
  • Washington Wizards (1)

Of the teams within three games of a playoff spot, these are the ones with roster openings. While the Kings and Wizards may opt not to add reinforcements as they push for a postseason berth, the Heat – like the other teams with two openings – will be required to add a 14th man soon.

For a full breakdown of the current NBA roster counts, be sure to check out our tracker.

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Six RFAs Well Positioned For Multiyear Contracts

March 6th, 2019 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a big payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team might have to overpay to do it —last summer, for instance, Kyle Anderson probably did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted. Clint Capela, Aaron Gordon, Dante Exum, and Davis Bertans were among the other RFAs that secured multiyear deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. In past years, RFAs like Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have reportedly turned down lucrative long-term offers and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. In 2018, Rodney Hood ultimately had to sign his one-year, $3.47MM qualifying offer after failing to land a longer-term pact.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a long-term deal is generally preferred if the money is right, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2019 free agent period, there are a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big multiyear contracts. Here are six of them:

  1. D’Angelo Russell, G (Nets): Russell vowed this week that he’ll win the Most Improved Player award. There are enough worthy candidates for the award that he may not deliver on that promise, but he’s one of the few MIP contenders who took his big leap forward in a contract year. Carrying the Nets in Caris LeVert‘s absence, Russell has significantly increased many of his key counting stats (20.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) while also putting up the best shooting percentages of his career (.436 FG%, .366 3PT%).
  2. Kristaps Porzingis, F/C (Mavericks): Unlike Russell, Porzingis isn’t a candidate for a maximum-salary contract by virtue of the strides he has made this year. In fact, the only strides Porzingis has made are the literal ones required during his ACL rehab. Still, the Mavericks didn’t acquire KP with the intent of taking things year-by-year with him — it would be a major surprise if the two sides don’t reach an agreement on a long-term deal this summer.
  3. Malcolm Brogdon, G (Bucks): Brogdon has been somewhat overlooked in Milwaukee, where Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP frontrunner, Eric Bledsoe just signed a $70MM extension, and Khris Middleton is set to become one of the offseason’s most coveted free agents. But the 26-year-old has been a crucial part of the Bucks’ success, and is on the verge of becoming one of the few players to join the 50/40/90 club, having shot .511/.438/.932 this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a rival team try to pry him away from the Bucks in July.
  4. Terry Rozier, G (Celtics): Rozier hasn’t looked this season like the player who helped lead the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago. But that can be attributed in large part due to a somewhat inconsistent role off the bench. A team with a hole at the point may believe in Rozier’s ability to regain his 2018 postseason form in a starting role. Plus, as is the case with Brogdon, there will likely be teams around the league hoping to poach an asset from a contender.
  5. Tomas Satoransky, G (Wizards): Satoransky’s importance to the 2019/20 Wizards increased exponentially when John Wall tore his Achilles and was ruled out through the ’19 calendar year. Satoransky doesn’t demand the ball a ton, which makes him a solid fit alongside Bradley Beal, and given Washington’s dearth of point guard options if he walks, he’s well positioned to negotiate a favorable deal with the club.
  6. Kelly Oubre, F (Suns): With Trevor Ariza drawing interest around the NBA earlier in the season, the Suns opted to trade him for Oubre rather than future draft picks, a signal that they view the former Wizard as a potential long-term piece. The 23-year-old has been a good fit so far, averaging 16.0 PPG and a .442 FG% in 34 games with the Suns. Both would be career highs.

For a full breakdown of the players who could reach restricted free agency this summer, check out our list of 2019 free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

March 6th, 2019 at 10:12am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, along with the free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app is free and allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces. For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james.

You can also set up an RSS feed for any of our player pages by adding /feed to the end of the page URL, like this: hoopsrumors.com/demarcus-cousins/feed. Entering that URL into the reader of your choice will enable you to get updates whenever we write about DeMarcus Cousins. It works for teams, too. If you’re a Warriors fan, you can enter hoopsrumors.com/golden-state-warriors/feed into your reader and stay on top of all the latest from Golden State.

In addition to players and teams, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts. For example, you can keep tabs on our 2019 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. You can simply scan our top stories here. Again, you can set up an RSS feed with any of these pages by adding /feed to the end of the URL.

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Poll: Is Western Conference Playoff Field Already Set?

March 5th, 2019 at 2:47pm CST by Luke Adams

In our Community Shootaround discussion on Monday, we zeroed in on the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, noting that the final three postseason spots remain up for grabs in the East, where the sixth and 10th seeds are only separated by 2.5 games.

For a time, it appeared the last few playoff spots in the Western Conference were just as up in the air, but the gap between the top eight teams in the West and the lottery teams has increased as of late.

The seventh-seeded Clippers have won six of their last eight games and the eighth-seeded Spurs are on a three-game winning streak of their own. Their top challengers, the Kings and Lakers, have both been heading in the other direction recently. Sacramento has lost five of seven, while the Lakers’ struggles have been well publicized — they’ve won just five of their last 18 games.

As a result of those trends, the Kings are now three full games behind the Spurs for a postseason spot, while the 10th-seeded Lakers trail San Antonio by 5.5 games with only 18 contests left to play. Time is running out for those teams outside of the top eight to make a run, especially given how good the current playoff clubs have looked.

While the door is rapidly closing on the Lakers and the teams behind them in the standings, there may still be some hope for the Kings. According to Tankathon.com, Sacramento has the sixth-easiest schedule in the NBA down the stretch. The Kings will also face the struggling Celtics twice in the next 10 days, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Spurs.

Still, the Jazz, Clippers, and Spurs – the three teams directly ahead of the Kings in the standings – also rank in the top half of the league in terms of easiest rest-of-season schedules. Plus, Sacramento won’t get much of a chance to make up ground by beating those three teams. The Kings only have one game left against Utah, one against San Antonio, and none against the Clippers — and those games against the Jazz and Spurs are on the road.

So, is it too optimistic for us to expect a Western Conference playoff race over the season’s final month? Can the Kings, Lakers, or another team force their way back into the mix, or will the conference’s current top eight teams make up the playoff field when the first round gets underway in April?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Postseason Eligibility And Two-Way Players

March 5th, 2019 at 10:41am CST by Luke Adams

As we noted several times leading up to last Friday’s deadline, March 1 is the final day in an NBA season that a player can be waived and retain his playoff eligibility for a new club. Any player released after March 1 can still sign with another NBA team once he clears waivers, but he wouldn’t be able to participate in the postseason with his new team.

While the playoff-eligibility rules are fairly clear for players on standard NBA contracts, how exactly do they work for players on two-way contracts? Let’s take a closer look…

1. Players on two-way contracts aren’t eligible for the postseason.

We’ll start with the simplest rule — a player on a two-way contract can’t play for his team in the postseason, even if he hasn’t used up his full allotment of 45 NBA days. A two-way player can travel and practice with the team during the playoffs, but has to remain on the inactive list during games.

2. Two-way players waived after March 1 aren’t eligible to play in the postseason for a new team.

The same waiver rules that apply to players on standard NBA contracts apply to players on two-way deals when it comes to playoff eligibility. If a player on a two-way contract is waived between now and the end of the regular season, he won’t be eligible to join another team for the postseason.

Although these first two rules significantly restrict the ability of two-way players to participate in the playoffs, it’s still possible for a player who is on a two-way contract today to play in the postseason.

3. A player on a two-way contract who has his contract turned into a standard NBA deal by his current team any time up until the last day of the regular season can play in the postseason for that team.

Warriors swingman Damion Lee and Rockets wing Danuel House are two examples of players who have contributed to their respective teams’ success at various times this year and could be useful at the back end of a playoff roster.

If the Warriors and Rockets want to ensure they’ll have Lee and House available for the postseason, they could unilaterally convert those two-way deals into standard, one-year NBA contracts anytime between now and the end of the regular season. As long as the player gets moved to the 15-man roster on or before the last day of the regular season, he’s eligible to participate in the playoffs.

There are potential roadblocks in each case. The Warriors are poised to use their final open roster spot on Andrew Bogut, so they’d have to waive another player on a guaranteed contract if they want to promote Lee. The Rockets, meanwhile, have attempted to lock up House to a longer-term deal to avoid having him reach restricted free agency at season’s end, but the two sides haven’t found common ground. We examined that stalemate back in January.

Still, there’s a potential path for Lee, House, and any other player currently on a two-way contract for a contender to play in the postseason if a team wants to make it happen.

[RELATED: 2018/19 NBA Roster Counts]

While these eligibility rules for two-way players shouldn’t create problems for most of the league’s 30 teams, there are at least a handful of clubs that might have decisions to make before season’s end. In order to make a player on a two-way contract available for the postseason, a team will have to convert that player to a standard NBA deal by April 10.

For more information on how two-way contracts work, be sure to check out our full glossary entry.

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