Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Pacific Division

March 3rd, 2019 at 8:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Pacific Division:

D eMarcus Cousins, Warriors, 28, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $5.3MM deal in 2018
Everyone was curious to see how healthy Cousins would look after returning from the Achilles injury and whether he’d fit in with the star-laden Warriors. So far, so good. Other than getting a couple nights off on back-to-backs, Cousins hasn’t had any physical setbacks. He’s settling in as a third or fourth option in the attack, averaging 23.3 PPG over the last three games. He’s also given the Dubs a defensive presence in the middle. Cousins may not find a max deal this summer but he’ll get something close to it from one of the teams with ample cap space.

Garrett Temple, Clippers, 32, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $24MM deal in 2016
The defensive specialist didn’t move the needle as a starter with the Grizzlies and he was dealt to the Clippers just before the trade deadline. Temple is the No. 5 option when he’s on the court but he hasn’t made the most of his limited opportunities, shooting 33.9% from deep after knocking down a career-high 39.2% of his long-distance shots last season in Sacramento. Temple’s age will work against him in the open market. Forget about an $8MM average in his next contract. He’ll be shopping for the veteran’s minimum this time around.

Rajon Rondo, Lakers, 33, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $9MM deal in 2018
A strong argument can be made that Rondo’s decision to sign with the Lakers ruined the season for two franchises. With Rondo at the point, the Pelicans reached the second round of the Western Conference playoffs last season. They wanted him back but he jilted them to join Los Angeles. New Orleans’ season went sour, leading to Anthony Davis‘ trade demand. Rondo has been a poor fit with the Lakers and his PER is a well-below-average 11.7. He’s played heavy minutes during the Lakers’ recent slide, including a 1-for-10, four-assists, two-turnover stinker against Phoenix on Saturday.

Troy Daniels, Suns, 27, SG (Down) — Signed to a three-year, $10MM deal in 2016
Daniels is essentially a one-trick pony and he hasn’t been allowed to perform it as often as he did last season. Daniels, who is playing for his fifth team, has seen his minutes drop to an average of 13.3 per game under first-year coach Igor Kokoskov with quite a few DNPs mixed in. His 3-point shooting hasn’t suffered — his 40% average mirrors what he did last season when he appeared in 79 games and averaged 20.5 MPG. Daniels’ shooting ability should keep him in the league a few more years but he may have to settle for one-year deal or a partially guaranteed two-year contract this summer.

Alec Burks, Kings, 27, SG (Down)– Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2015
Burks was better off playing regularly on a bad team than spot minutes on an improving club in the playoff hunt. Burks flourished with Cleveland after getting dealt by Utah early in the season. He posted averages of 11.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 2.9 APG in 28.8 MPG with the Cavs, who then shipped him to the West Coast in a three-team swap. Burks has done next to nothing with Sacramento, scoring 2.6 PPG in 12.1 MPG through seven games. Burks has only attempted five 3-pointers since the deal and missed all of them. Burks needs a strong finish to reestablish his value in unrestricted free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Replacing The All-Star Game

March 2nd, 2019 at 10:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

When your commissioner compares All-Star Game changes to putting “an earring on a pig,” it’s probably time to try something different.

That’s how Adam Silver characterized the new All-Star format in a speech Friday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, relays Jimmy Golen of The Associated Press. The NBA is in its second season of having the highest vote-getter from each conference make selections from a pool of players chosen by fans and coaches. Even though this year’s game was shown on both TNT and TBS, it tied for the worst rating in its history with a 3.8.

“The All-Star Game didn’t work,” Silver admitted, calling it “an afterthought” of an event-filled weekend.

Silver would like to shorten the regular season to about 70 games and make up for the lost revenue by replacing the All-Star contest with a midseason or pre-season tournament that would amount to a separate championship. It’s similar to the format in European soccer. He also suggested that teams could stage a mini-tournament in Europe or Asia.

One problem the league would face is how to make the competitions matter when the ultimate goal is to win an NBA title. Another is that cutting the schedule to 70 games means every team would have to give up the money from six home dates. And although players and coaches would prefer a shorter season, none would welcome an accompanying pay cut to make it possible.

We want to get your opinion on Silver’s musings. Is the All-Star Game beyond salvaging? Would you be interested in seeing a tournament take its place, and is there any way to make it meaningful? Does the NBA need a shorter season, and how can the revenue be replaced? Please leave your comments in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/23/19 – 3/2/19

March 2nd, 2019 at 1:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

We explained how Anthony Davis‘ trade request could have an indirect – but significant – impact on Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves.
I revisited the protections on 2019’s traded first-round picks to get a sense of which selections are locks to change hands, which will ones will be protected, and which ones are still up in the air.
We took a closer look at all the 10-day contracts expiring this week, examining the roster situations for the teams that signed those deals.
Chris Crouse spoke to Bulls forward Otto Porter about his move to Chicago and the direction of the franchise, and touched base with Magic big man Mohamed Bamba to discuss his rookie season.
The weekly installment in Chris’ Fantasy Hoops series focused on several frontcourt situations to watch around the NBA.
In our Community Shootaround series this week, we discussed the following topics:
- Will the Lakers add a second star this summer, and who will it be? (link)
- What would be the most fun outcome of the 2019 draft lottery? (link)
- Which NBA head coaches deserve Coach of the Year consideration? (link)
- Which NBA head coaches should – or will – be on the hot seat this spring? (link)
In our lone poll this week, we asked how many maximum-salary players you expect the Knicks to sign this offseason.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Fantasy Hoops: Frontcourt Report

February 28th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Marvin Bagley III left the court on Wednesday night with an injury to his left knee, which is the same one that kept him sidelined for roughly a month earlier this season. The 2018 No. 2 overall pick was showing promising signs coming out of the All-Star break, scoring 20.3 points per game while adding 10.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks per contest over that stretch.

With Bagley set to miss at least a week or two, the Kings will be forced to reshuffle their rotation and the biggest winner could be Harry Giles.

Giles saw 18 minutes on Wednesday versus the Bucks, accumulating 18 points, seven rebounds and one block while making 9-of-13 looks from the field. He played many of his minutes at the four spot when Bagley was sidelined this winter and on Friday, Sacramento will take on the Clippers—a team that has been the fourth-most fantasy-friendly to opposing power forwards this season.

While Giles should be a profitable low-cost option in daily fantasy this weekend, I wouldn’t necessarily add the second-year big man in season-long leagues until we see exactly what coach Dave Joerger is going to do with the rotation. If you have the roster space, he makes for a nice speculative add, as has the potential to be a fantasy playoff difference-maker if he gets enough run.

Here’s more from around the league:

The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic, leaving Jonah Bolden to get the starting nod against the Thunder tonight. OKC has been an above-average fantasy matchup vs. opposing centers this season, per HTB. Philadelphia will play the Warriors on Saturday, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 this season vs. the position, so keep an eye on Bolden should Embiid miss that contest.
Domantas Sabonis will miss nearly a week with an ankle injury and Myles Turner and Kyle O’Quinn will both benefit. However, over the next two games, the Pacers take on the Timberwolves and Magic, a pair of teams that have been among the top-10 stingiest matchups this season in terms of fantasy production.
Dewayne Dedmon ranks eighth overall in ESPN’s Player Rater over the last 15 days. Dedmon has become very Paul Millsap-like this season, contributing in many categories. Over that 15-day stretch, he’s averaging a solid 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds while adding 2.0 assists. Dedmon is just one of four players (Brook Lopez, DeMarcus Cousins, and Turner) to average two blocks, one steal and one 3-pointer made during that stretch. The Hawks center should be owned in season-long leagues.
Hassan Whiteside‘s hip issues caused him to miss the Heat’s tilt with the Warriors on Wednesday and he’s not expected to play against the Rockets tonight either. Bam Adebayo should be owned in all leagues and he’s a nice DFS play tonight.
If Mitchell Robinson is somehow still available in your league, go and scoop him up. The Knicks rookie should also be owned in all leagues.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How The AD Saga Could Impact Wolves, Towns

February 28th, 2019 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The trajectory of Karl-Anthony Towns‘ 2018/19 season significantly changed when the Timberwolves finally found a taker for Jimmy Butler, sending him to Philadelphia in November. Prior to that trade, Towns had been just okay by his standards, averaging 19.9 PPG and 10.8 RPG on 45.9% shooting in 13 contests. Since Butler’s departure, the former No. 1 overall pick has boosted those averages to 24.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, and a 53.3 FG% in 46 games.

While Butler’s departure helped boost Towns’ numbers, it may be another player’s trade request that ultimately has a greater impact on the 23-year-old and his team, as Dane Moore of 1500 ESPN observed this week (via Twitter).

When Towns signed a five-year, maximum-salary contract extension with Minnesota last fall, a decision Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic recently revisited and explored in more detail, the two sides agreed to a condition that will determine how much the deal is actually worth. If Towns earns a spot on an All-NBA team this spring, his new contract will have a starting salary worth 30% of the cap. If he doesn’t, his 2019/20 salary will be just 25% of the cap.

As our early maximum salary projections for 2019/20 show, that difference projects to represent a gap of more than $5MM next season. Over the course of the five-year contract, Towns would earn a projected $189.66MM on a 30% max, as opposed to $158.05MM on a 25% max. For a Minnesota team that’s also on the hook to a long-term max contract for Andrew Wiggins, that difference isn’t insignificant — it could help determine whether or not the Wolves can make certain moves in the coming years.

So what are the odds of Towns making an All-NBA team this season? Well, he’ll be considered a center, and there are two centers who look like locks to be named to All-NBA squads — Nikola Jokic has been an MVP candidate in Denver, and Joel Embiid has been the best player on a Sixers club that looks like a legit contender in the East. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Towns beats out either player for a spot on the First or Second All-NBA Team.

Of course, there’s one more big man who would typically be a perennial lock for an All-NBA slot: Anthony Davis. That brings us back to AD’s trade request. Davis believes he should be considered the “best player in the league,” as he said on Wednesday night (link via Martin Rogers of USA Today), but the extent to which his public trade request has devastated the Pelicans won’t be lost on voters.

Based on his pure numbers (27.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, and 2.5 BPG), Davis obviously has a strong All-NBA case, but he’ll likely be blamed for the dysfunction in New Orleans and penalized accordingly for it. His minute restrictions down the stretch will reduce his overall numbers, and he’s unlikely to play more than 65 games. Plus, the Pelicans are on track to be a bottom-four team in the West. And on top of all that, some All-NBA voters may consider Davis a forward, which would split his votes between two positions. There are a lot of factors working against him earning one of the three center spots.

It’s still possible that voters will name Davis to an All-NBA team, but I’m somewhat skeptical. And if AD doesn’t make it, that opens the door for another center to grab a Third Team spot. Towns would be a prime candidate for that slot, though he’d face stiff competition from Rudy Gobert and Nikola Vucevic, both of whom are having excellent seasons.

Gobert’s impact on the defensive end of the court could give him a leg up on Towns, but only if All-NBA voters weigh his defensive contributions much more heavily than All-Star voters did — Gobert didn’t earn a spot on the Western Conference All-Star team this month.

As for Vucevic, he isn’t scoring quite as much as Towns this season, but his numbers across the rest of the board match up pretty favorably with the Wolves’ young star. If Vucevic helps push the Magic into the postseason, perhaps he’d get the edge over Towns. If not, I could see voters being swayed by KAT’s more impressive scoring numbers.

It remains to be seen whether Towns will ultimately be named an All-NBA player, but it’s a subplot worth watching the rest of the way, since voters will be making a $30MM+ decision. If KAT does earn a spot on an All-NBA roster, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Davis’ trade request indirectly helped get him there.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year Candidates

February 27th, 2019 at 1:13pm CST by Luke Adams

On Tuesday, our Community Shootaround discussion focused on NBA head coaches who might be on the hot seat this spring. For today’s discussion, it seems fair to turn our attention to the coaches on the other end of the spectrum who are in the running for 2019’s Coach of the Year award.

Generally, the coaches who receive the most consideration fall into at least one of three categories: They lead their team to one of the NBA’s best records, their team significantly outperforms expectations, or they manage to overcome a slew of injuries and other obstacles to keep their team in the hunt.

Based on the first two of those criteria, Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer should receive strong consideration. While most pundits predicted a bump in the standings for Milwaukee this season, not many saw this coming — the Bucks’ 46-14 record is the NBA’s best, and the club has a top-five offensive rating to go along with its league-best defensive rating. On the surface, the Bucks’ roster – beyond superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo – didn’t look as deep as Boston’s or Toronto’s, and the starting five didn’t look as dangerous as Philadelphia’s, but Budenholzer has the team in the driver’s seat in the East.

Over in the West, Michael Malone‘s Nuggets have pulled off a feat similar to Milwaukee’s. Denver is just one game back of Golden State for the conference’s top seed, despite not having a particularly star-studded group behind Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets weren’t necessarily viewed as a lock to make the playoffs entering the year, so Malone’s work should be lauded.

Nate McMillan meets all three of the criteria listed above — the Pacers have a top-five record in the NBA (40-21), they’ve exceeded expectations so far, and they’ve done it without star guard Victor Oladipo for much of the season. Oladipo, who is out for the rest of 2018/19, appeared in just 36 games for Indiana. While most NBA fans and observers leave the Pacers out of the “big four” teams in the East, McMillan’s squad remains ahead of the Celtics and Sixers in the standings.

Other candidates worthy of consideration include Kenny Atkinson (Nets), Doc Rivers (Clippers), and especially Dave Joerger (Kings). Their teams were all once viewed as probable lottery participants, but they’re now very much in the playoff mix. Steve Clifford is on the verge of entering that discussion as well, with the Magic making a postseason push this month.

Nick Nurse deserves a mention as well. The Raptors were expected to be a contender coming into the season, but things weren’t expected to come together quite this quickly. Nurse has Toronto on nearly a 60-win pace, and has done so while dealing with Kawhi Leonard‘s “load management” and injuries to several important rotation players.

What do you think? Who do you believe is the frontrunner for 2019’s Coach of the Year award? Are there are any underrated candidates you believe deserve serious consideration for the honor?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Eight 10-Day Deals To Expire By End Of Weekend

February 27th, 2019 at 11:04am CST by Luke Adams

Several teams around the NBA signed new players last week in order to get back to the league-mandated roster minimum of 14 players after slipping below that number at the trade deadline. While those clubs are complying with NBA rules for the time being, many of them just signed players to 10-day contracts and will have to consider additional moves once those deals expire.

At the moment, there are 11 active 10-day contracts around the league, with one more – B.J. Johnson to the Hawks – reported but not yet official. Eight of those 11 active deals are set to expire by the end of this weekend, so here’s a quick look at each of those situations:

February 27

Corey Brewer (Kings)
- Brewer’s 10-day contract, his second with the Kings, will expire after Sacramento’s Tuesday matchup against Milwaukee. So, as of tomorrow, the team will have to decide whether to re-sign him for the rest of the season or let him go. If the Kings don’t bring back Brewer, who has appeared in two of their last three games, they’d be down to 13 players and would have two weeks to get back up to 14.

March 1

Henry Ellenson (Knicks)
- Ellenson played a key role in the Knicks‘ comeback win over Orlando on Tuesday, filling the box score with 13 points, nine boards, five assists, and two steals. He’s still on his first 10-day deal, and the Knicks would dip to 13 players without him, so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get a second contract from the club.
Jordan Sibert (Hawks)
- The Hawks are reportedly poised to sign B.J. Johnson to a 10-day contract, which would keep them at 14 players even if they don’t bring back Sibert. Sibert has yet to play in a game for Atlanta, so it’s hard to get a sense of which way the team is leaning on a possible second 10-day deal.
Emanuel Terry (Heat)
- The Heat are flirting with the luxury tax line, which is probably bad news for Terry. Miami figures to be very careful about not signing players earlier than they have to for the rest of the season, which means Terry may not be re-signed right away – or at all – once his first 10-day contract expires this Friday night.
Jodie Meeks (Raptors)
- Meeks has come out firing in his first two games with the Raptors, putting up 13 shot attempts in just 24 minutes. Toronto’s production from beyond the arc has been inconsistent this season, so Meeks’ outside shot may earn him a longer look from the team. However, like Terry in Miami, he may not be re-signed immediately when his first 10-day contract expires, since the Raptors will want to do all they can to minimize their tax bill.

March 2

Ray Spalding (Suns)
- For a lottery-bound team like the Suns, it makes sense to use their open roster spots to audition young prospects who might prove worthy of sticking around on next season’s team. It’s not clear if Spalding, who is on his first 10-day contract, fits that bill, since he hasn’t seen any action so far. If Phoenix doesn’t re-sign him, the roster count will be at 13 players, and the club would be required to add someone eventually.

March 3

Chris Chiozza / Terrence Jones (Rockets)
- Like the Heat and Raptors, the Rockets are very aware of where their team salary is in relation to the tax line, and will likely avoid carrying more players than they have to. When Choizza’s and Jones’ deals expire on Sunday night, Houston may be happy to drop below the roster minimum for a little while again before getting back up to 14 later in the month.

The other three active 10-day contracts around the league belong to Isaiah Canaan (Bucks), Tahjere McCall (Nets), and Cameron Reynolds (Timberwolves). Those deals will run through March 6, March 7, and March 8, respectively.

Meanwhile, it’s also worth keeping an eye on the Thunder, who have been carrying 13 players since Scotty Hopson‘s and Richard Solomon‘s 10-day contracts expired on Saturday night. Oklahoma City projects to be the NBA’s biggest taxpayer this year, and will likely be patient when it comes to filling that 14th roster slot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Otto Porter Jr. Discusses Trade To The Bulls, Role With Team

February 26th, 2019 at 11:14pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Otto Porter Jr. entered into a new chapter of his basketball career when he was dealt to the Bulls earlier this month. The 25-year-old small forward is happy with his new home, telling Hoops Rumors that he believes Chicago has a bright future.

“We have a lot of young guys, young pieces. The team is definitely headed in the right direction, trying to get back to winning basketball here,” Porter told Hoops Rumors before last Friday’s game against the Magic.

Porter, who grew up in Missouri, added that the transition to Chicago has been a smooth one.

“Going from D.C. to Chicago, I’m actually closer to home,” he said. “So [right away], I was able to see a lot of my family in my first home game with the Bulls.”

When he signed his four-year, $106MM with the Wizards during the summer of 2017, the small forward planned on living out his contract in the city where he attended college and made his NBA debut.

“When I signed the deal [with the Wizards], I didn’t think I was going to get traded,” Porter explained to Hoops Rumors.

Leading up to the trade deadline, management reportedly reiterated to Porter that they weren’t going to trade him away. The former No. 3 overall pick previously said he felt that the team lied to him.

Wizards owner Ted Leonsis addressed the response, telling multi-media reporter Mike Wise (Twitter link) that understands Porter’s stance and he feels “terrible” about it.

“We did tell him we weren’t going to trade him. We were going to keep our core together,” Leonsis said, before adding that the team was preparing to make another deal that kept Porter, Bradley Beal, and John Wall together on the team.

“We actually had some other things that we were going to do, and another trade that would have kept the core together and given us flexibility,” Leonsis said, admitting that the hypothetical deal didn’t pan out.

Porter developed into an ultra-efficient scorer over the past few years in Washington, someone who’s capable of excelling as a primary ball-handler or alongside other play-makers. The 2017/18 season was his apex with the Wizards, as he made 44.1% of his 4.1 attempts from behind the arc, a figure that was bested by just two players leaguewide. Porter finished the campaign eighth overall in turnover percentage and sixth among all wing players in effective field goal percentage.

While his numbers dipped slightly to begin the 2018/19 campaign, peak Porter has arrived in Chicago. During his six games to date with his new club, Porter has a true shooting percentage of 65.4%, making over half of his 27 attempts behind the arc. His player efficiency rate over the first 191 minutes of his Bulls career is an electric 19.4.

The Bulls are 4-2 with Porter in the starting lineup, though the wing left halfway through his sixth contest with the team after suffering a lower leg strain. Porter remains out with the ailment as of this writing.

The Wizards have gone 2-6 since making the trade. When asked what direction his former franchise was heading in, Porter replied, “I have no idea to be honest. I’m not focusing on them.”

From an on-court perspective, Porter’s role with the Bulls isn’t expected to be dissimilar to the one he had in Washington. Off the court, he moves from a situation in which many of his teammates were his elders to one in which his NBA experience trumps that of many fellow Bulls. He’s embracing the change.

“I’m one of the oldest on the team, so I have to [play a different role],” Porter told Hoops Rumors. “It’s pretty cool to be one of the vets here.”

Porter’s contract has two years left beyond this season, though his deal contains a player option on the final year, which comes in at approximately $28.5MM. He’ll get to see Chicago make one offseason of moves and play a season-and-a-half worth of games with his new club before making his decision on that option for 2020/21.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Coaches On Hot Seat?

February 26th, 2019 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Whispers about a potential coaching change have followed Luke Walton around for nearly the entire 2018/19 campaign, and while the Lakers have insisted both publicly and privately that his job is safe for the rest of the season, there’s no guarantee he’ll keep it beyond that.

With just 22 games left in their season, the 29-31 Lakers are currently on the outside of the playoff picture, trailing the eighth-seeded Spurs by three games. It will take an impressive run over the next month and a half to earn a playoff spot. If the Lakers can’t make that type of run, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team move on from Walton in the offseason. However, he’s not the only NBA head coach who might be on the hot seat in the coming weeks or months.

As Dan Feldman of NBC Sports relays, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 has suggested that Igor Kokoskov‘s seat in Phoenix is getting hot. The Suns picked up a win on Monday night to snap their 17-game losing streak, but if the Suns had been mulling a change, a single victory is unlikely to change their minds. It’s Kokoskov’s first year in Phoenix, but the general manager who hired him – Ryan McDonough – is no longer in the front office, so the new management group might want to bring in its own coach this spring.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference, Alvin Gentry finds himself in a similar spot to Kokoskov. The GM who hired him has recently been fired, and his team hasn’t met expectations in 2018/19. On the other hand, Gentry has had to deal with unusual circumstances, including an Anthony Davis trade request, and he still has his team playing hard. He’s reportedly well-liked by management and ownership, so the Pelicans may stick with him beyond this season.

Ryan Saunders (Timberwolves), Larry Drew (Cavaliers), and Jim Boylen (Bulls) took over for recently-fired head coaches during the season, and while the odds are against all three keeping their jobs in 2019/20, they’ve all gotten pretty good reviews so far. It wouldn’t be shocking to see any combination of the three return for next season.

Scott Brooks‘ Wizards have underperformed in 2018/19. The club has insisted all year that he’s not on the hot seat, but his job security appears more tenuous than many of his fellow lottery-bound coaches, who either have a track record of success (like Rick Carlisle) or were recently hired (such as David Fizdale, J.B. Bickerstaff, and Lloyd Pierce).

With the home stretch of the ’18/19 season approaching, we want to know which teams you expect to make a coaching change this spring. Which coaches are in the most danger? Will we see plenty of turnover once the season ends, like we did a year ago, or will it be a fairly quiet spring for head coaching turnover?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Checking In On Protected 2019 First Round Picks

February 26th, 2019 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

With only about a month and a half left in the 2018/19 regular season, we’re getting a clearer picture of what this year’s draft order might look like. We’re also getting a clearer sense of which of the traded 2019 picks with protections will or won’t change hands this spring.

Using our 2018/19 Reverse Standings as a reference point, here’s our latest check-in on where things stand for those traded 2019 first-rounders, based on their protections.

Locks to change hands:

Kings‘ pick to Celtics or Sixers (unprotected)
- Current projection: No. 14
Nuggets‘ pick to Nets (top-12 protected)
- Current projection: No. 27
Raptors‘ pick to Spurs (top-20 protected)
- Current projection: No. 29

The Nets and Spurs may not be thrilled by how well the Nuggets and Raptors are playing this season, since it assures those first-round picks will fall in the mid-to-late 20s. But Brooklyn and San Antonio can at least be confident that they’ll actually receive those selections this year, which will allow them to better prepare for the draft.

As for the Kings‘ pick, it will almost certainly end up with the Celtics, but the Sixers will still be keeping an eye on it — if Sacramento ends up in the lottery, there will be a very slim chance of that pick vaulting up to No. 1 overall. In that scenario, Philadelphia would receive it and Boston would instead get the 76ers’ first-rounder.

At this point, the far more likely scenario is the Sixers keeping their own pick and the Celtics getting a Kings pick in the teens.

Locks to be protected:

Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks (top-10 protected)
- Current projection: No. 3
Bucks‘ pick to Suns (top-3 and 17-30 protected)
- Current projection: No. 30

The Cavaliers have been playing better lately, but there’s still essentially no way their pick will fall out of the top 10 — there are 13 games between Cleveland and Miami, the 10th team in the reverse standings. So the Cavs can rest assured that they’ll retain their 2019 first-rounder. Subsequently, they’ll owe the Hawks their top-10 protected 2020 first-round pick.

On the other end of the draft, it’s the Bucks‘ success this season that guarantees they’ll keep their selection. The pick they agreed to trade to Phoenix has unusual reverse-protection criteria that provides only a small window for the Suns to snatch it. Since that pick won’t change hands this season, the Bucks will owe the Suns their top-7 protected first-rounder in 2020.

Still up in the air:

Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics (top-8 protected)
- Current projection: No. 6
Mavericks‘ pick to Hawks (top-5 protected)
- Current projection: No. 8
Clippers‘ pick to Celtics (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 19
Rockets‘ pick to Cavaliers (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 21

Of these picks, the Grizzlies‘ and Mavericks‘ selections are the most intriguing. Both project as top-10 picks, and neither has full top-10 protection. For now, Memphis appear likely to keep its pick rather than sending it to the Celtics, while the Hawks have a good chance to receive Dallas’ pick. That outlook could quickly change though, if the Grizzlies get on a hot streak and/or the Mavs slump.

It’s worth noting that the new lottery format could be a wild-card factor here. Let’s say the Grizzlies finish seventh in the reverse standings. In previous years, the likelihood that their pick would slide to ninth from that spot would be less than 2%. This year, those odds would increase to over 14%.

Similarly, suppose the Mavericks finish seventh in the reverse standings. Under the old system, the Hawks could be confident of receiving the Mavs’ selection, since Dallas would only have a 15% of moving up into the top three and retaining the pick. In the new system, those odds are all the way up to 32%.

Meanwhile, the Clippers and Rockets will surrender their first-rounders if they earn playoff spots. After some early-season struggles, Houston looks like a fairly safe postseason bet at this point, meaning the Cavaliers should be confident they’ll get the Rockets’ pick. The Clippers, who moved up to seventh in the West on Monday, are less certain of a spot, so the Celtics will be closely watching the playoff race.

Information from RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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