Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Is Western Conference Playoff Field Already Set?

March 5th, 2019 at 2:47pm CST by Luke Adams

In our Community Shootaround discussion on Monday, we zeroed in on the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, noting that the final three postseason spots remain up for grabs in the East, where the sixth and 10th seeds are only separated by 2.5 games.

For a time, it appeared the last few playoff spots in the Western Conference were just as up in the air, but the gap between the top eight teams in the West and the lottery teams has increased as of late.

The seventh-seeded Clippers have won six of their last eight games and the eighth-seeded Spurs are on a three-game winning streak of their own. Their top challengers, the Kings and Lakers, have both been heading in the other direction recently. Sacramento has lost five of seven, while the Lakers’ struggles have been well publicized — they’ve won just five of their last 18 games.

As a result of those trends, the Kings are now three full games behind the Spurs for a postseason spot, while the 10th-seeded Lakers trail San Antonio by 5.5 games with only 18 contests left to play. Time is running out for those teams outside of the top eight to make a run, especially given how good the current playoff clubs have looked.

While the door is rapidly closing on the Lakers and the teams behind them in the standings, there may still be some hope for the Kings. According to Tankathon.com, Sacramento has the sixth-easiest schedule in the NBA down the stretch. The Kings will also face the struggling Celtics twice in the next 10 days, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Spurs.

Still, the Jazz, Clippers, and Spurs – the three teams directly ahead of the Kings in the standings – also rank in the top half of the league in terms of easiest rest-of-season schedules. Plus, Sacramento won’t get much of a chance to make up ground by beating those three teams. The Kings only have one game left against Utah, one against San Antonio, and none against the Clippers — and those games against the Jazz and Spurs are on the road.

So, is it too optimistic for us to expect a Western Conference playoff race over the season’s final month? Can the Kings, Lakers, or another team force their way back into the mix, or will the conference’s current top eight teams make up the playoff field when the first round gets underway in April?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Postseason Eligibility And Two-Way Players

March 5th, 2019 at 10:41am CST by Luke Adams

As we noted several times leading up to last Friday’s deadline, March 1 is the final day in an NBA season that a player can be waived and retain his playoff eligibility for a new club. Any player released after March 1 can still sign with another NBA team once he clears waivers, but he wouldn’t be able to participate in the postseason with his new team.

While the playoff-eligibility rules are fairly clear for players on standard NBA contracts, how exactly do they work for players on two-way contracts? Let’s take a closer look…

1. Players on two-way contracts aren’t eligible for the postseason.

We’ll start with the simplest rule — a player on a two-way contract can’t play for his team in the postseason, even if he hasn’t used up his full allotment of 45 NBA days. A two-way player can travel and practice with the team during the playoffs, but has to remain on the inactive list during games.

2. Two-way players waived after March 1 aren’t eligible to play in the postseason for a new team.

The same waiver rules that apply to players on standard NBA contracts apply to players on two-way deals when it comes to playoff eligibility. If a player on a two-way contract is waived between now and the end of the regular season, he won’t be eligible to join another team for the postseason.

Although these first two rules significantly restrict the ability of two-way players to participate in the playoffs, it’s still possible for a player who is on a two-way contract today to play in the postseason.

3. A player on a two-way contract who has his contract turned into a standard NBA deal by his current team any time up until the last day of the regular season can play in the postseason for that team.

Warriors swingman Damion Lee and Rockets wing Danuel House are two examples of players who have contributed to their respective teams’ success at various times this year and could be useful at the back end of a playoff roster.

If the Warriors and Rockets want to ensure they’ll have Lee and House available for the postseason, they could unilaterally convert those two-way deals into standard, one-year NBA contracts anytime between now and the end of the regular season. As long as the player gets moved to the 15-man roster on or before the last day of the regular season, he’s eligible to participate in the playoffs.

There are potential roadblocks in each case. The Warriors are poised to use their final open roster spot on Andrew Bogut, so they’d have to waive another player on a guaranteed contract if they want to promote Lee. The Rockets, meanwhile, have attempted to lock up House to a longer-term deal to avoid having him reach restricted free agency at season’s end, but the two sides haven’t found common ground. We examined that stalemate back in January.

Still, there’s a potential path for Lee, House, and any other player currently on a two-way contract for a contender to play in the postseason if a team wants to make it happen.

[RELATED: 2018/19 NBA Roster Counts]

While these eligibility rules for two-way players shouldn’t create problems for most of the league’s 30 teams, there are at least a handful of clubs that might have decisions to make before season’s end. In order to make a player on a two-way contract available for the postseason, a team will have to convert that player to a standard NBA deal by April 10.

For more information on how two-way contracts work, be sure to check out our full glossary entry.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

2018/19 NBA Reverse Standings Update

March 5th, 2019 at 8:09am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2018/19 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2019 draft order will look like. Our 2018/19 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2019’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s updated lottery format.

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year. Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than playoff teams. Our reverse standings account for that.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to the Clippers‘s pick says that Los Angeles will send that pick to the Celtics if it’s not in the top 14. As of today, the Clips hold a playoff spot and project to have the No. 19 pick, meaning that selection would be sent to Boston.

While the Knicks lost on Monday night in Sacramento, the Suns unexpectedly knocked off the NBA-best Bucks, flipping the order at the top of the Reverse Standings. At 13-51, the Knicks are now a half-game “ahead” of the 14-51 Suns, putting them in the driver’s seat for the most favorable pick in this year’s draft.

While the league’s three worst teams will all have an equal chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a top-four selection, the order of those three clubs remains crucial — the NBA’s worst team can’t fall further than the No. 5 pick, while the third-worst team could end up selecting as low as No. 7.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2019. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

Community Shootaround: East’s Bottom Seeds

March 4th, 2019 at 9:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It’s a pretty safe bet that the Bucks, Raptors, Pacers, Sixers and Celtics will be the top five seeds in the Eastern Conference playoffs, in some order.

The fight for the last three berths has turned into a mad scramble with less than 20 games remaining in the regular season.

The Pistons appeared to be in deep trouble heading toward the All-Star break but they’ve suddenly shot up to the sixth slot by winning nine of their last 11 games. They possess one of the league’s most prolific frontcourt duos in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond but improved point guard play and a hot streak from reserve Luke Kennard has also boosted their stock.

The Nets have hit a dry spell, losing three in a row before they crushed Dallas on Monday to pull even with Detroit. They’ll rely heavily on their backcourt and wings, particularly D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert and Joe Harris, in their quest to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2014/15 season.

The Magic, Hornets and Heat are tightly bunched in the next tier. Orlando has won seven of its last 10 games, led by the frontcourt pairing of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon and top reserve Terrence Ross.

Charlotte and Miami have slumped in recent weeks but the Hornets have the best point guard among the teams angling for those last three spots in Kemba Walker. Miami’s floor leader, Goran Dragic, recently returned after undergoing knee surgery to aid its playoff push, though he’s now dealing with a calf injury. Dwyane Wade is still capable of big games and dramatic shots.

Even the Wizards, whose roster has been decimated by injuries and trades, remain on the fringes of the race, thanks to a career year from Bradley Beal.

That leads us to our question of the day: Which teams will claim the last three spots in the Eastern Conference playoff chase?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Pacific Division

March 3rd, 2019 at 8:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Pacific Division:

D eMarcus Cousins, Warriors, 28, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $5.3MM deal in 2018
Everyone was curious to see how healthy Cousins would look after returning from the Achilles injury and whether he’d fit in with the star-laden Warriors. So far, so good. Other than getting a couple nights off on back-to-backs, Cousins hasn’t had any physical setbacks. He’s settling in as a third or fourth option in the attack, averaging 23.3 PPG over the last three games. He’s also given the Dubs a defensive presence in the middle. Cousins may not find a max deal this summer but he’ll get something close to it from one of the teams with ample cap space.

Garrett Temple, Clippers, 32, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $24MM deal in 2016
The defensive specialist didn’t move the needle as a starter with the Grizzlies and he was dealt to the Clippers just before the trade deadline. Temple is the No. 5 option when he’s on the court but he hasn’t made the most of his limited opportunities, shooting 33.9% from deep after knocking down a career-high 39.2% of his long-distance shots last season in Sacramento. Temple’s age will work against him in the open market. Forget about an $8MM average in his next contract. He’ll be shopping for the veteran’s minimum this time around.

Rajon Rondo, Lakers, 33, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $9MM deal in 2018
A strong argument can be made that Rondo’s decision to sign with the Lakers ruined the season for two franchises. With Rondo at the point, the Pelicans reached the second round of the Western Conference playoffs last season. They wanted him back but he jilted them to join Los Angeles. New Orleans’ season went sour, leading to Anthony Davis‘ trade demand. Rondo has been a poor fit with the Lakers and his PER is a well-below-average 11.7. He’s played heavy minutes during the Lakers’ recent slide, including a 1-for-10, four-assists, two-turnover stinker against Phoenix on Saturday.

Troy Daniels, Suns, 27, SG (Down) — Signed to a three-year, $10MM deal in 2016
Daniels is essentially a one-trick pony and he hasn’t been allowed to perform it as often as he did last season. Daniels, who is playing for his fifth team, has seen his minutes drop to an average of 13.3 per game under first-year coach Igor Kokoskov with quite a few DNPs mixed in. His 3-point shooting hasn’t suffered — his 40% average mirrors what he did last season when he appeared in 79 games and averaged 20.5 MPG. Daniels’ shooting ability should keep him in the league a few more years but he may have to settle for one-year deal or a partially guaranteed two-year contract this summer.

Alec Burks, Kings, 27, SG (Down)– Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2015
Burks was better off playing regularly on a bad team than spot minutes on an improving club in the playoff hunt. Burks flourished with Cleveland after getting dealt by Utah early in the season. He posted averages of 11.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 2.9 APG in 28.8 MPG with the Cavs, who then shipped him to the West Coast in a three-team swap. Burks has done next to nothing with Sacramento, scoring 2.6 PPG in 12.1 MPG through seven games. Burks has only attempted five 3-pointers since the deal and missed all of them. Burks needs a strong finish to reestablish his value in unrestricted free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Replacing The All-Star Game

March 2nd, 2019 at 10:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

When your commissioner compares All-Star Game changes to putting “an earring on a pig,” it’s probably time to try something different.

That’s how Adam Silver characterized the new All-Star format in a speech Friday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, relays Jimmy Golen of The Associated Press. The NBA is in its second season of having the highest vote-getter from each conference make selections from a pool of players chosen by fans and coaches. Even though this year’s game was shown on both TNT and TBS, it tied for the worst rating in its history with a 3.8.

“The All-Star Game didn’t work,” Silver admitted, calling it “an afterthought” of an event-filled weekend.

Silver would like to shorten the regular season to about 70 games and make up for the lost revenue by replacing the All-Star contest with a midseason or pre-season tournament that would amount to a separate championship. It’s similar to the format in European soccer. He also suggested that teams could stage a mini-tournament in Europe or Asia.

One problem the league would face is how to make the competitions matter when the ultimate goal is to win an NBA title. Another is that cutting the schedule to 70 games means every team would have to give up the money from six home dates. And although players and coaches would prefer a shorter season, none would welcome an accompanying pay cut to make it possible.

We want to get your opinion on Silver’s musings. Is the All-Star Game beyond salvaging? Would you be interested in seeing a tournament take its place, and is there any way to make it meaningful? Does the NBA need a shorter season, and how can the revenue be replaced? Please leave your comments in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/23/19 – 3/2/19

March 2nd, 2019 at 1:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

We explained how Anthony Davis‘ trade request could have an indirect – but significant – impact on Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves.
I revisited the protections on 2019’s traded first-round picks to get a sense of which selections are locks to change hands, which will ones will be protected, and which ones are still up in the air.
We took a closer look at all the 10-day contracts expiring this week, examining the roster situations for the teams that signed those deals.
Chris Crouse spoke to Bulls forward Otto Porter about his move to Chicago and the direction of the franchise, and touched base with Magic big man Mohamed Bamba to discuss his rookie season.
The weekly installment in Chris’ Fantasy Hoops series focused on several frontcourt situations to watch around the NBA.
In our Community Shootaround series this week, we discussed the following topics:
- Will the Lakers add a second star this summer, and who will it be? (link)
- What would be the most fun outcome of the 2019 draft lottery? (link)
- Which NBA head coaches deserve Coach of the Year consideration? (link)
- Which NBA head coaches should – or will – be on the hot seat this spring? (link)
In our lone poll this week, we asked how many maximum-salary players you expect the Knicks to sign this offseason.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Fantasy Hoops: Frontcourt Report

February 28th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Marvin Bagley III left the court on Wednesday night with an injury to his left knee, which is the same one that kept him sidelined for roughly a month earlier this season. The 2018 No. 2 overall pick was showing promising signs coming out of the All-Star break, scoring 20.3 points per game while adding 10.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks per contest over that stretch.

With Bagley set to miss at least a week or two, the Kings will be forced to reshuffle their rotation and the biggest winner could be Harry Giles.

Giles saw 18 minutes on Wednesday versus the Bucks, accumulating 18 points, seven rebounds and one block while making 9-of-13 looks from the field. He played many of his minutes at the four spot when Bagley was sidelined this winter and on Friday, Sacramento will take on the Clippers—a team that has been the fourth-most fantasy-friendly to opposing power forwards this season.

While Giles should be a profitable low-cost option in daily fantasy this weekend, I wouldn’t necessarily add the second-year big man in season-long leagues until we see exactly what coach Dave Joerger is going to do with the rotation. If you have the roster space, he makes for a nice speculative add, as has the potential to be a fantasy playoff difference-maker if he gets enough run.

Here’s more from around the league:

The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic, leaving Jonah Bolden to get the starting nod against the Thunder tonight. OKC has been an above-average fantasy matchup vs. opposing centers this season, per HTB. Philadelphia will play the Warriors on Saturday, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 this season vs. the position, so keep an eye on Bolden should Embiid miss that contest.
Domantas Sabonis will miss nearly a week with an ankle injury and Myles Turner and Kyle O’Quinn will both benefit. However, over the next two games, the Pacers take on the Timberwolves and Magic, a pair of teams that have been among the top-10 stingiest matchups this season in terms of fantasy production.
Dewayne Dedmon ranks eighth overall in ESPN’s Player Rater over the last 15 days. Dedmon has become very Paul Millsap-like this season, contributing in many categories. Over that 15-day stretch, he’s averaging a solid 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds while adding 2.0 assists. Dedmon is just one of four players (Brook Lopez, DeMarcus Cousins, and Turner) to average two blocks, one steal and one 3-pointer made during that stretch. The Hawks center should be owned in season-long leagues.
Hassan Whiteside‘s hip issues caused him to miss the Heat’s tilt with the Warriors on Wednesday and he’s not expected to play against the Rockets tonight either. Bam Adebayo should be owned in all leagues and he’s a nice DFS play tonight.
If Mitchell Robinson is somehow still available in your league, go and scoop him up. The Knicks rookie should also be owned in all leagues.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How The AD Saga Could Impact Wolves, Towns

February 28th, 2019 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The trajectory of Karl-Anthony Towns‘ 2018/19 season significantly changed when the Timberwolves finally found a taker for Jimmy Butler, sending him to Philadelphia in November. Prior to that trade, Towns had been just okay by his standards, averaging 19.9 PPG and 10.8 RPG on 45.9% shooting in 13 contests. Since Butler’s departure, the former No. 1 overall pick has boosted those averages to 24.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, and a 53.3 FG% in 46 games.

While Butler’s departure helped boost Towns’ numbers, it may be another player’s trade request that ultimately has a greater impact on the 23-year-old and his team, as Dane Moore of 1500 ESPN observed this week (via Twitter).

When Towns signed a five-year, maximum-salary contract extension with Minnesota last fall, a decision Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic recently revisited and explored in more detail, the two sides agreed to a condition that will determine how much the deal is actually worth. If Towns earns a spot on an All-NBA team this spring, his new contract will have a starting salary worth 30% of the cap. If he doesn’t, his 2019/20 salary will be just 25% of the cap.

As our early maximum salary projections for 2019/20 show, that difference projects to represent a gap of more than $5MM next season. Over the course of the five-year contract, Towns would earn a projected $189.66MM on a 30% max, as opposed to $158.05MM on a 25% max. For a Minnesota team that’s also on the hook to a long-term max contract for Andrew Wiggins, that difference isn’t insignificant — it could help determine whether or not the Wolves can make certain moves in the coming years.

So what are the odds of Towns making an All-NBA team this season? Well, he’ll be considered a center, and there are two centers who look like locks to be named to All-NBA squads — Nikola Jokic has been an MVP candidate in Denver, and Joel Embiid has been the best player on a Sixers club that looks like a legit contender in the East. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Towns beats out either player for a spot on the First or Second All-NBA Team.

Of course, there’s one more big man who would typically be a perennial lock for an All-NBA slot: Anthony Davis. That brings us back to AD’s trade request. Davis believes he should be considered the “best player in the league,” as he said on Wednesday night (link via Martin Rogers of USA Today), but the extent to which his public trade request has devastated the Pelicans won’t be lost on voters.

Based on his pure numbers (27.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, and 2.5 BPG), Davis obviously has a strong All-NBA case, but he’ll likely be blamed for the dysfunction in New Orleans and penalized accordingly for it. His minute restrictions down the stretch will reduce his overall numbers, and he’s unlikely to play more than 65 games. Plus, the Pelicans are on track to be a bottom-four team in the West. And on top of all that, some All-NBA voters may consider Davis a forward, which would split his votes between two positions. There are a lot of factors working against him earning one of the three center spots.

It’s still possible that voters will name Davis to an All-NBA team, but I’m somewhat skeptical. And if AD doesn’t make it, that opens the door for another center to grab a Third Team spot. Towns would be a prime candidate for that slot, though he’d face stiff competition from Rudy Gobert and Nikola Vucevic, both of whom are having excellent seasons.

Gobert’s impact on the defensive end of the court could give him a leg up on Towns, but only if All-NBA voters weigh his defensive contributions much more heavily than All-Star voters did — Gobert didn’t earn a spot on the Western Conference All-Star team this month.

As for Vucevic, he isn’t scoring quite as much as Towns this season, but his numbers across the rest of the board match up pretty favorably with the Wolves’ young star. If Vucevic helps push the Magic into the postseason, perhaps he’d get the edge over Towns. If not, I could see voters being swayed by KAT’s more impressive scoring numbers.

It remains to be seen whether Towns will ultimately be named an All-NBA player, but it’s a subplot worth watching the rest of the way, since voters will be making a $30MM+ decision. If KAT does earn a spot on an All-NBA roster, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Davis’ trade request indirectly helped get him there.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year Candidates

February 27th, 2019 at 1:13pm CST by Luke Adams

On Tuesday, our Community Shootaround discussion focused on NBA head coaches who might be on the hot seat this spring. For today’s discussion, it seems fair to turn our attention to the coaches on the other end of the spectrum who are in the running for 2019’s Coach of the Year award.

Generally, the coaches who receive the most consideration fall into at least one of three categories: They lead their team to one of the NBA’s best records, their team significantly outperforms expectations, or they manage to overcome a slew of injuries and other obstacles to keep their team in the hunt.

Based on the first two of those criteria, Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer should receive strong consideration. While most pundits predicted a bump in the standings for Milwaukee this season, not many saw this coming — the Bucks’ 46-14 record is the NBA’s best, and the club has a top-five offensive rating to go along with its league-best defensive rating. On the surface, the Bucks’ roster – beyond superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo – didn’t look as deep as Boston’s or Toronto’s, and the starting five didn’t look as dangerous as Philadelphia’s, but Budenholzer has the team in the driver’s seat in the East.

Over in the West, Michael Malone‘s Nuggets have pulled off a feat similar to Milwaukee’s. Denver is just one game back of Golden State for the conference’s top seed, despite not having a particularly star-studded group behind Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets weren’t necessarily viewed as a lock to make the playoffs entering the year, so Malone’s work should be lauded.

Nate McMillan meets all three of the criteria listed above — the Pacers have a top-five record in the NBA (40-21), they’ve exceeded expectations so far, and they’ve done it without star guard Victor Oladipo for much of the season. Oladipo, who is out for the rest of 2018/19, appeared in just 36 games for Indiana. While most NBA fans and observers leave the Pacers out of the “big four” teams in the East, McMillan’s squad remains ahead of the Celtics and Sixers in the standings.

Other candidates worthy of consideration include Kenny Atkinson (Nets), Doc Rivers (Clippers), and especially Dave Joerger (Kings). Their teams were all once viewed as probable lottery participants, but they’re now very much in the playoff mix. Steve Clifford is on the verge of entering that discussion as well, with the Magic making a postseason push this month.

Nick Nurse deserves a mention as well. The Raptors were expected to be a contender coming into the season, but things weren’t expected to come together quite this quickly. Nurse has Toronto on nearly a 60-win pace, and has done so while dealing with Kawhi Leonard‘s “load management” and injuries to several important rotation players.

What do you think? Who do you believe is the frontrunner for 2019’s Coach of the Year award? Are there are any underrated candidates you believe deserve serious consideration for the honor?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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