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Roster Moves Required Soon For Raptors, Heat, Rockets

March 11th, 2019 at 2:58pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Thunder signed Deonte Burton on Sunday, the move ensured that the team got back to the NBA-mandated roster minimum of 14 players (not including two-way contracts). Teams are permitted to dip below 14 for up to two weeks at a time, and Oklahoma City had been at 13 since February 24, so a roster move was required on Sunday.

Since the Thunder project to have the NBA’s most expensive tax bill in 2019, it makes sense that they’d take the entire allowable two weeks before signing a 14th player — by not paying a 14th man for those two weeks, the team will save approximately $500K on that year-end tax bill.

Currently, there are three teams in a similar boat to the Thunder. The Raptors, Heat, and Rockets are all carrying just 13 players on their 15-man rosters, and will have to make roster moves within the next week to get back up to 14 players. All three teams are trying to either stay out of tax territory or limit the amount of their projected tax penalties, so they – like OKC – may take the full two weeks to add a 14th man.

Toronto and Miami have been at 13 players since March 2, when 10-day contracts expired for Jodie Meeks and Emanuel Terry, respectively. They’ll have until this Saturday to get back to 14 players. Meeks and Terry remain on the free agent market, making them candidates to rejoin the Raptors and Heat, but both teams could end up going in different directions.

As for the Rockets, their roster count briefly dipped to 12 players on March 4, when Terrence Jones‘ and Chris Chiozza‘s 10-day deals expired. Jones was quickly re-signed, but Houston has been carrying just 13 players since then. The club will have another week to get to 14. With Jones’ second 10-day contract set to end on Wednesday night, a pair of roster moves will be necessary for the Rockets.

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2018/19 Disabled Player Exceptions Set To Expire

March 11th, 2019 at 9:52am CST by Luke Adams

A pair of disabled player exceptions are set to expire, assuming they go unused today. Three teams were granted DPEs this season and two of those teams – the Mavericks and Grizzlies – have yet to use them.

We go into more detail on how exactly disabled player exceptions work in our glossary entry on the subject. But essentially, a DPE gives a team the opportunity to add an injury replacement by either signing a player to a one-year contract, trading for a player in the final year of his contract, or placing a waiver claim on a player in the final year of his contract.

The Wizards, who were granted a disabled player exception worth $8.641MM (the amount of the mid-level exception) after John Wall went down with a season-ending injury, used their exception to acquire Wesley Johnson in a deadline-day trade with the Pelicans.

Using the DPE to accommodate that deal, which saw Markieff Morris sent to New Orleans, allowed Washington to create a trade exception worth Morris’ salary ($8.6MM). That trade exception won’t expire until February 7, 2020, which gives the Wizards some additional flexibility. Their disabled player exception would have expired today, as a team with a DPE has until March 10 (or the next business day) to use it.

As for the Mavericks and Grizzlies, their disabled player exceptions are far more modest than Washington’s. Dallas received one worth $1,855,425 (half of J.J. Barea‘s salary), while Memphis’ is worth just $689,121 (half of Dillon Brooks‘ salary).

With the trade deadline behind us and no player on waivers, the only option for those teams would be to sign a free agent using the DPE, but that seems unlikely at this point — there’s little incentive for either lottery-bound club to sign a player to a one-year contract worth more than the minimum. The more probable outcome is that both exceptions simply expire.

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Atlantic Division

March 10th, 2019 at 8:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Atlantic Division:

Terry Rozier, Celtics, 24, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8.8MM deal in 2015
Rozier has struggled most of the season after his breakout performances in last season’s playoffs, when he averaged 16.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 5.7 APG while subbing for an injured Kyrie Irving. So why is his stock up? Irving’s commitment to the organization is shaky at best, which makes restricted free agent Rozier a major insurance policy. Rozier would clearly benefit from becoming a starter in Boston or elsewhere. He has averaged 14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 5.7 APG the last six games in which Irving missed and he played. He rarely turns the ball over, which makes any coach happy.

Ed Davis, Nets, 29, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $4.45MM deal in 2018
Davis consistently stays in a team’s rotation by knowing his role and his limitations. He’s told to rebound and play defense and he does those well. Davis is averaging a career-high 8.5 RPG while playing pretty much the same minutes he logged for Portland the previous three seasons. He sports a strong 1.7 Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating, according to Basketball-Reference. He’ll continue to find work as a second-unit fixture who doesn’t mind letting his teammates do all the scoring.

Mario Hezonja, Knicks, 24, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $6.5MM deal in 2018
Hezonja had a second chance to shed the label of ‘bust’ by signing with the rebuilding Knicks after three forgettable seasons with Orlando. Perhaps his label should now read ‘colossal bust.’ Hezonja is destined to go down as one of the worst top-five picks in the last two decades. In 46 games, Hezonja has averaged 7.6 PPG on 39.7% shooting and 3.7 RPG while compiling more turnovers than assists. He hasn’t played since mid-February due to a knee injury or coach’s decision. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Croatian native spends the remainder of his career in Europe.

Boban Marjanovic, 76ers, 30, C (Down) — Signed to a three-year, $21MM deal in 2016
Marjanovic has been sidelined recently by a knee injury. He’s been highly productive and always entertaining when he plays. The 7’3″ center is a throwback to another era when slow-footed giants were more prevalent in the league. Marjanovic is impossible to stop when he gets the ball down low but his lack of mobility make it tough to play him for long stretches. The happy-go-lucky Marjanovic is a fan and locker-room favorite who might get a short-term deal as a third-string backup but it’s doubtful he’ll receive another three-year offer.

Danny Green, Raptors, 31, SG (Up)– Signed to a four-year, $40MM deal in 2015
Green was the ‘other’ starter in the blockbuster Spurs-Raptors trade this offseason. Green isn’t an All-Star talent like Kawhi Leonard or DeMar DeRozan, but he’s a solid NBA starter on one of the top teams in the league. He gained that status in San Antonio and nothing’s changed north of the border. Green has taken two-thirds of his shots from beyond the arc and made 43.3%, his best long-distance average since the 2011/12 season. His Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating has dropped this year but he’s still a plus 1.2. Green’s 3-point shooting alone will guarantee him a nice payday this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Weekly Mailbag: 3/4/19 – 3/10/19

March 10th, 2019 at 12:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think Kyrie Irving will move to the Knicks with Kevin Durant next season or try to entice Durant to join the Celtics, as they’re both good buddies? — Greg Dizon

The interplay between Irving and Durant was one of the most interesting subplots of All-Star Weekend. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst compared them to a “middle school couple” on his “Hoop Collective Podcast” because they spent so much time together. Their conversations that weekend surely included the topic of becoming teammates next year, but we’ll have to see how the postseason plays out before setting any odds on that possibility. If it does happen, it will probably be in New York. Boston won’t have the cap space to sign Durant unless Al Horford opts out of a $30.1MM salary or the Celtics can find a taker for Gordon Hayward.

If the Knicks get the second or third pick, is there a possibility of selecting Ja Morant, and do you think he is better than Dennis Smith Jr.? — Howie

The Knicks keep investing in point guards and changing their minds, so who knows for sure? Considering their personnel, a wing like R.J. Barrett or Cam Reddish makes more sense. However, anything less than the No. 1 pick will instantly become trade bait. Morant put on a sensational performance in this week’s Ohio Valley Conference tournament, getting rave reviews from many observers, including Tony Jones of The Athletic, who considers Morant far more skilled than Smith (Twitter link).

Who do you think the Lakers will sign in the free agency? Is there any chance Brook Lopez returns? Where will Kawhi Leonard land? — Raphael Brandao
The Lakers will target stars in hopes of landing another elite player to team with LeBron James. If an Anthony Davis deal takes away their ability to offer a max contract, they’ll gladly pay that price. If that doesn’t happen, L.A. will turn to Leonard, Durant, Irving, Klay Thompson and anyone else they consider to be at that level. The rumor for months has been that Leonard’s first choice is the Clippers if he decides to leave Toronto. Durant and Irving seem to be looking elsewhere, while Thompson will stay with the Warriors if he gets a max offer, so the Lakers may have to be aggressive in their pursuit of a player such as Kemba Walker or Jimmy Butler. They may target Lopez if they have money left over, but he’s such a good fit in Milwaukee that the Bucks will fight to keep him.
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Community Shootaround: Trading LeBron James

March 9th, 2019 at 10:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

The most surprising part of tonight’s ABC prime time game between the Lakers and Celtics was a first quarter discussion among the announcing crew on whether L.A. should consider trading LeBron James after the season.

Jeff Van Gundy raised the topic, arguing that the Lakers should keep all their options open in an effort to improve the team. He conceded that trading James is unlikely and it would take a monumental offer for team president Magic Johnson and GM Rob Pelinka to even consider the idea. However, Van Gundy noted that the savings from unloading James’ contract could put L.A. in position to chase other free agents such as Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard.

Broadcast partner Mark Jackson quickly shot down the idea, pointing out that the Lakers’ reputation around the league would suffer if they traded the NBA’s highest-profile player a year after he agreed to sign with them.

Van Gundy found an ally on social media in ESPN’s Bobby Marks, who formerly served as assistant GM with the Nets. “Everything needs to be on the table for the Lakers this summer including no. 23,” Marks tweeted.

In the real world, the idea of trading LeBron without his consent is laughable. He and his representatives wield too much power and he sells too many tickets, jerseys and other merchandise for the Lakers to ever entertain the idea. But hypothetically, it could be in the best interest of the team.

Although he has continued to play at an All-Star level, LeBron’s first year in L.A. has been a disaster. He hasn’t been able to make a playoff team out of a collection of young talent and journeymen players on one-year contracts. Things might have gone differently if the Lakers hadn’t been overwhelmed by a string of injuries, but they always faced an uphill climb in a challenging Western Conference.

If LeBron couldn’t lift the Lakers into contention this year, will he ever be able to? He turns 35 in December and there’s no guarantee the team will be successful in its pursuit of Anthony Davis or hit the jackpot in free agency again. Reports have indicated that some elite free agents, most notably Durant and Leonard, may not be interested in teaming up with LeBron.

James is owed more than $117MM over the next three seasons, assuming he opts in to a $41MM salary in 2021/22. Trading him would open significant cap room and might make the Lakers more attractive to free agents who don’t want to play in LeBron’s shadow or deal with the drama that seems to surround him. Plenty of teams courted James last summer and likely would be willing to part with a nice collection of talent to make a deal happen.

We’re not saying it would ever take place, but we still want to get your opinion on the suggestion. Would the Lakers be smart to consider trading away LeBron this summer? Please leave your answers in the space below.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/2/19 – 3/9/19

March 9th, 2019 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Listed below are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Community Shootaround: Most Improved Player

March 8th, 2019 at 9:58pm CST by Luke Adams

There’s still more than a month left in the NBA’s 2018/19 regular season, but D’Angelo Russell already has a prediction for the 2019 Most Improved Player award.

“I’m gonna win that s–t,” Russell recently told Anthony Puccio of SNY.tv. “Watch. Put it on record. I’m gonna win it.”

Russell is a legit candidate for the Most Improved Player award, having emerged as perhaps the Nets‘ most valuable player this season after a so-so first year in Brooklyn. He has drastically improved his shooting efficiency and earned his first All-Star nod last month.

Still, Russell isn’t the leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award. That honor might belong to Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who has more than doubled his scoring average and become the third-most important player on the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed.

Kings guard De’Aaron Fox is another strong contender. After an inconsistent rookie season, the 21-year-old is putting up big numbers (17.2 PPG, 7.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) for one of the league’s most surprising teams.

Domantas Sabonis and John Collins are among the other youngsters who have taken major steps forward this season, while established veterans like Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Vucevic have taken their games to another level — George and Antetokounmpo are legit MVP candidates for the first time and Vucevic is in the All-NBA conversation. They’re just a few of the players who could have a case to be included in the MIP conversation.

Most Improved Player is one of the most difficult NBA awards to define. Should a player like Fox receive serious consideration even though second-year players (and former top-five picks) are expected to improve significantly from year one to two? Should Siakam’s contributions to one of the NBA’s top teams be weighted far more heavily than they would if he were on a lottery team, as is the case for the MVP award?

How about cases like George’s and Antetokounmpo’s? Is the leap from star to superstar more or less worthy of Most Improved Player consideration than a third- or fourth-year player making the jump from rotation player to borderline All-Star?

With no clear guidelines to follow, it’s often to left to a voter’s discretion how best to define what it means to be the NBA’s most improved player. In tonight’s Community Shootaround discussion, we want to know which factors you consider most heavily, and which player you’d pick to win in 2018/19 as a result.

What do you think? Who is your current pick for 2019’s Most Improved Player? What sort of players do you believe should receive the most serious consideration? Are there certain criteria you believe should be weighted more heavily than others?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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No NBA Teams Below Salary Floor For 2018/19

March 8th, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The salary cap line and the luxury tax threshold receive far more attention, but there’s another noteworthy level of spending that NBA teams must adhere to each season: the minimum salary floor.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the subject, the league’s salary floor means that a club to spend at least 90% of the salary cap on player salaries. For instance, with the 2018/19 cap set at $101,869,000, the salary floor for this season is $91,682,100.

If a team finishes the regular season below the NBA’s salary floor for that league year, the penalty isn’t harsh — the franchise is simply required to make up the shortfall by paying the difference to its players. For example, if a team finished this season with a team salary of $88,682,100, that team would be required to distribute that $3MM shortfall among its players.

In contrast to most recent NBA seasons though, no teams are currently projected to fall below the league’s salary floor for 2018/19.

The Mavericks appear on the surface to be below the salary floor — Basketball Insiders’ data lists their current team salary as $89,266,661, making them the only team with a payroll below $100MM.

However, when determining whether a team has reached the salary floor, the NBA considers how much the club has actually paid to players over the course of the season, rather than the team’s current cap figure. And when a team makes trades during the season, that team only owes its incoming players their remaining prorated salaries, having already paid its outgoing players a prorated portion of their salaries.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Proration]

In Dallas’ case, the club made a pair of trades prior to last month’s deadline – one with the Knicks and one with the Kings – that reduced team salary considerably.

Because of the prorated money the Mavericks had paid to those outgoing players during the first two-thirds of the season – including nearly $16MM to Harrison Barnes and almost $14MM to DeAndre Jordan – there’s a significant gap between their current team salary (about $89MM) and the salaries they’ve actually paid. By my count, the Mavs are currently on the hook for about $99MM in total player salaries for 2018/19 once all the prorated figures have been calculated.

Conversely, the Kings carried a team salary below the floor for much of the season, but a trio of deadline deals – most notably that one with Dallas involving Barnes – helped pushed them above the floor.

According to Basketball Insiders, Sacramento currently has a team salary of $104,029,182. Based on my math, the Kings will actually only pay about $97MM in player salaries once the prorated figures for the likes of Barnes, Alec Burks, and others are taken into account. Either way, they’ll easily clear the 2018/19 salary floor.

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Poll: Will LeBron James Become NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer?

March 7th, 2019 at 3:07pm CST by Luke Adams

LeBron James reached another major milestone on Wednesday night, surpassing Michael Jordan on the NBA’s all-time points list. With 32,311 career points, James is now the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, trailing only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387), Karl Malone (36,928), and Kobe Bryant (33,643).

James’ latest achievement is a reminder that the NBA’s all-time scoring lead remains within reach. LeBron just turned 34 years old in December and has three more years remaining on his contract with the Lakers after 2018/19. While this season has turned into a disaster, the four-time MVP still looks like he has plenty left on the tank, having averaged 27.1 PPG in his first year as a Laker.

Currently, the gap between Abdul-Jabbar’s points total and James’ stands at 6,076. In his first 15 NBA seasons leading up to 2018/19, LeBron averaged 2,069 points per season. If he were to continue at that rate for three more years, he’d become the league’s all-time leading scorer before his contract with the Lakers expires.

Despite James’ impressive durability and longevity over the years, however, it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to continue scoring at that rate. This season, for instance, even if he plays in every single one of the Lakers’ remaining 17 games and maintains his 27.1 PPG scoring average, he’d end up with 1,733 points due to the groin injury that cost him more than a month.

It’s fair to assume that nagging injuries could become a more frequent issue for James in his age-35 season and beyond, and his production figures to dip a little during that stretch as well. Even if we assume LeBron is capable of averaging 1,500 points per season going forward (about 23 PPG in 65 games per year), it would be 2023 before he catches up to Abdul-Jabbar. He’d be 38 years old at that point, so there’s not a ton of room for error (or, say, any season-ending injuries).

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that taking over the NBA’s all-time scoring lead is a realistic goal for LeBron. He’ll likely have to stay relatively healthy and continue playing at a high level for at least two or three more years – or be willing to play until he’s 40 – to have a legit shot, but that certainly seems possible.

What do you think? Do you expect LeBron to retire as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, or will he ultimately end up second or third? And if he claims that No. 1 spot, do you view any current players as serious threats to pass him?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

March 7th, 2019 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place every spring between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold their first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four picks in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5%
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5%
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0%
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5%
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0%
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5%
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0%
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0%
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5%
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0%
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
8 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
10 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
11 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
13 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

It’s worth noting that the NBA’s lottery format was recently changed, with 2019’s draft representing the first one that will use the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery, and the odds were weighted more in favor of the league’s worst teams.

For instance, in 2018, when the league-worst Suns landed the first overall pick, they had a 25.0% chance to receive that No. 1 selection heading into the lottery, and couldn’t have dropped further than No. 4 (35.8%). In 2019, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14.0% chance at the top pick and will have a 47.9% chance of falling all the way to No. 5.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2013.

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