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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southwest Division

January 11th, 2019 at 9:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southwest Division:

DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks, 30, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $24.1MM deal in 2018
Jordan has pretty much done his usual thing in his first season with Dallas, ranking second in the league in rebounding and anchoring the defense. One troubling development is his penchant for turnovers — he’s averaging a career-worst 2.4 per game. The one other surprising development is a plus — the career 45.9% free throw shooter has drained 70.3% of his attempts. The always durable Jordan has also answered the bell every game. Early concerns about about “selfish” play have somewhat dissipated. Dallas may not re-sign him but someone will give him another big contract this summer.

Austin Rivers, Rockets, 26, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1.15MM deal in 2018
The above salary number doesn’t reflect what Rivers is actually making this season, as the Suns bought out his contract after he was traded from the Wizards. He had a $12.6MM salary in the final year of a four-season contract and only gave back $650K. The decision to hook on with the Rockets after he cleared waivers has been good for both parties. With Chris Paul sidelined, Rivers has averaged 12.3 PPG and 3.1 APG in 38.5 MPG in his first eight outings with a championship contender. Still in his prime, Rivers should be able to land a multi-year deal this summer.

Ivan Rabb, Grizzlies, 21, PF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $2.3MM deal in 2017
An early second-rounder in 2017, Rabb has been a force in a handful of G League games, averaging 23.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG. That hasn’t translated into NBA playing time. He hasn’t played meaningful minutes in 14 games with the Grizzlies. Interior defensive issues and the lack of 3-point shot are the main reason why the athletic big man hasn’t carved out a role. Unless they’re convinced he can improve those areas, the Grizzlies will likely cut ties with him after the season.

Darius Miller, Pelicans, 28, SF (Down) — Signed to a two-year, $4.3MM deal in 2017
Miller receives lots of playing time but his offensive contributions boil down to an occasional 3-point attempt. To be fair, Miller is the No. 5 option when he’s on the floor and he’s an above-average long-range shooter (38.7 percent). His defensive metrics are subpar, which partially explains his paltry 8.42 PER, so the 3-and-D tag doesn’t necessarily fit. Miller’s 3-point shooting could be enough to land him a veteran’s minimum deal or something slightly higher next summer but there’s no big payday ahead.

Quincy Pondexter, Spurs, 30, SF (Down)– Signed to a one-year, $2.16MM deal in 2018
Pondexter remained on the roster past January 10th, fully guaranteeing his salary for this season. Pondexter, whose career has been sidetracked by knee injuries, has been praised as a positive locker room influence but he hasn’t contributed much on the court. He’s appeared in 31 games but averaged just 5.9 MPG with a majority of his playing time coming in blowouts. Pondexter will likely struggle to find another veteran’s minimum deal in the summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Pistons Moves

January 11th, 2019 at 8:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Following a quick start, the Pistons have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments. They were 13-7 after 20 games but have nosedived since early December, dropping 16 of their last 20 games.

Their defense has been atrociously recently, as they got blown out by the LeBron-less Lakers on Wednesday and the Kings on Thursday.

A playoff spot seemed like a safe bet as long as Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson stayed healthy. None of them has missed a game due to injury and Griffin has played at an All-Star level on a regular basis. Yet the bottom line screams that something needs to change.
Drummond’s production has dropped lately and Jackson has underperformed throughout the season under new coach Dwane Casey’s system, which has de-emphasized the pick-and-roll.
The Pistons’ brass reportedly met on Friday to discuss moves to improve the team, with a point guard and creative wing player heading the wish list.
The imminent return of sixth man Ish Smith from an adductor tear should alleviate the point guard situation, which had 37-year-old Jose Calderon playing regular minutes in his absence. However, the wing players, with the possible exception of Reggie Bullock, have not provided consistent production.
The Pistons have a tricky cap situation, thanks to some bad contracts. Jackson can be included on that list which also includes Jon Leuer, Langston Galloway and Glenn Robinson III. Recent first-round picks Stanley Johnson and Luke Kennard have not lived up to their draft status, though some rival executives might believe they have untapped potential. A package of Johnson and/or Kennard with a first-round pick or two may deliver a starter-quality wing.
A more radical move would be sending Drummond, the league’s leading rebounder, packing for a top-level wing player and a big man that could at least take his minutes. The Pistons only have Leuer and aging Zaza Pachulia as backup big men.
That leads us to today’s topic: Should the struggling Pistons trade Andre Drummond to shake up their roster? Or should they move other players and draft picks and keep the Griffin-Drummond frontcourt duo intact?
Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this discussion. We look forward to your input.
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2018/19 NBA Reverse Standings Update

January 11th, 2019 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2018/19 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2019 draft order will look like. Our 2018/19 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2019’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s updated lottery format.

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year. Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than playoff teams. Our reverse standings account for that.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Cleveland’s pick says that the Cavaliers will send their pick to the Hawks if it’s not in the top 10. As of today, Cleveland is in a tie for the NBA’s worst record, meaning that pick wouldn’t change hands.

The current reverse standings exhibit clearly why so few NBA teams have emerged as sellers on the trade market. Five clubs – the Cavs, Suns, Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks – are within 4.5 games of the worst record, but the league’s sixth-worst team – the Wizards – is 4.5 games removed from any of those clubs, and still has postseason aspirations.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2019. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

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Roster Notes: Wizards, Suns, Blazers, More

January 11th, 2019 at 8:53am CST by Luke Adams

Early to mid January is a period of flux for a number of NBA rosters, as teams navigate two key deadlines.

[RELATED: NBA Dates, Deadlines To Watch In January]

All full-season contracts officially became guaranteed on Thursday, after a handful of clubs beat the deadline earlier this week and released players on non-guaranteed contracts to avoid having those cap hits lock in.

The next deadline arrives on January 15, which is the last day of the 2018/19 league year for teams to sign players to two-way contracts. After that day, teams can waive players on two-way deals, or convert them to standard contracts, but they can’t add anyone new on a two-way pact.

With those factors in mind, here are a few teams to keep an eye on within the next week or two:

Washington Wizards:

Having waived Ron Baker on Monday, the Wizards dipped down to 13 players on standard contracts. Teams are permitted to carry fewer than 14 players for up to two weeks at a time, so Washington will have until January 21 to sign or acquire a player to fill that slot.

It’s unlikely that the Wizards will guarantee that 14th player a rest-of-season contract, unless there’s someone they really love. A series of 10-day contracts is more likely, particularly before the February 7 trade deadline arrives.

Phoenix Suns:

The Suns are in a similar spot to the Wizards, with just 13 players on full-season standard contracts. However, Phoenix already filled its 14th roster slot by signing by signing Quincy Acy on Monday.

Still, Acy received a 10-day deal which will expire after next Wednesday, so the Suns are on track to have their roster count drop back to 13 players soon. They’ll have to eventually re-sign Acy or add someone new to the roster in order to get back to the league-mandated minimum of 14 players on standard deals.

Portland Trail Blazers:

In one of 2018/19’s under-the-radar roster oddities, the Trail Blazers have kept both of their two-way contract slots open all season. Portland doesn’t have its own G League affiliate, so perhaps the franchise views two-way players as unnecessary if they’re not contributing to the NBA team — so far, the club hasn’t been short-handed enough to need those extra contributions.

The club’s unsettled ownership situation could also be a factor here. Two-way players are very inexpensive in relative terms, but they still represent two more player salaries that need to be paid. Longtime Blazers owner Paul Allen passed away in 2018, so perhaps the front office hasn’t felt the need to ask ownership for the money for those two extra salaries.

Nonetheless, with Tuesday’s deadline for two-way signings fast approaching, it would be a surprise to see the Trail Blazers leave both spots open for the rest of the season. It could make sense for Portland to sign a player or two with some NBA experience, who could contribute down the stretch if necessary.

New York Knicks / New Orleans Pelicans:

The Knicks and Pelicans are currently the only two other NBA teams with two-way contract openings — they each have one. I’d expect both clubs to fill those slots by the January 15 deadline, though their priorities may be different.

The Pelicans – like Portland – don’t have their own affiliate and may prefer a player capable of helping out right away rather than a raw prospect, given their position in the standings. The Knicks, on the other hand, have their nearby Westchester affiliate at their disposal for developmental purposes. And given their current focus on developing prospects, even at the NBA level, it would be in the club’s best interests to bring aboard another young player for that two-way opening.

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Community Shootaround: NBA Midseason Awards

January 10th, 2019 at 2:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Giannis Antetokounmpo came out on top in a matchup between the NBA’s two MVP frontrunners on Wednesday night, as his 27 points and career-best 21 rebounds helped the Bucks pick up a 116-109 road win in Houston. James Harden continued his recent hot streak for the Rockets by racking up 42 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists, but required 30 shots to get those 42 points, and turned the ball over nine times.

As Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com relays, Antetokounmpo dismissed talk after the game about him being the league’s best or most valuable player so far in 2018/19. At the season’s midway point though, Giannis, who has led Milwaukee to an NBA-best 29-11 record, has a strong case to at least be informally named the league’s first-half MVP.

Before last night’s Bucks/Rockets showdown, Sean Deveney of The Sporting News handed out his midseason awards and gave the edge to Harden over Antetokounmpo for MVP, with Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Paul George, and others also receiving some consideration. Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports made the same pick today, making his case for Harden as the first-half MVP.

Elsewhere on their midseason awards ballots, Deveney and Haberstroh mixed in some easy calls – they both had Mavericks youngster Luka Doncic for Rookie of the Year – with some tougher ones. For instance, Deveney named Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) his Coach of the Year in a crowded field of contenders, while Haberstroh picked Dave Joerger (Kings).

Deveney’s and Haberstorh’s other selections included Domantas Sabonis (Pacers) for Sixth Man of the Year and Paul George (Thunder) for Defensive Player of the Year. The duo diverged on Most Improved Player, with Deveney choosing Pascal Siakam (Raptors) while Haberstroh opted for De’Aaron Fox (Kings).

With the season essentially halfway done – teams have played between 39 and 43 games – we want to know how you’d fill out your hypothetical awards ballot for the first half. Do you agree with most of Deveney’s and/or Haberstroh’s picks or would you go in a different direction for some of them? Are you making any dark-horse picks for any of this season’s awards so far?

Weigh in below in the comment section with your midseason award selections!

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Atlantic Division

January 10th, 2019 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

The Atlantic was viewed as one of the NBA’s most top-heavy divisions entering the season, with experts and fans banking on the Celtics, Raptors, and Sixers to be the top three teams in the East. Those teams have – for the most part – delivered on expectations (they’re all on pace for 50+ wins), and now a fourth Atlantic club has unexpectedly entered the playoff picture — the 21-22 Nets currently hold the No. 6 seed. As a result, the division could feature four buyers at the trade deadline next month.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Atlantic…

Enes Kanter, C
New York Knicks
$18.62MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

As talented as Kanter is as an inside scorer and rebounder, he doesn’t have the versatility necessary to excel as a primary frontcourt option for a contender. Modern NBA big men need to make outside shots and/or protect the rim to make themselves indispensable to teams, and Kanter does neither. He’s also earning more than $18MM.

Still, Kanter’s offensive and rebounding talents have value, and the Knicks likely won’t be asking for much as they seek out a potential trade. New York figures to prioritize player development over winning games during the second half, and Kanter has made it clear he’s not on board with that approach, so the club may be best served to end the relationship sooner rather than later, even if the return is minimal.

The Knicks won’t want to take back any multiyear money for Kanter’s expiring contract, given their 2019 free agency aspirations, which will limit their options. A trade that involves another sizable expiring contract or two would be ideal.

The team has reportedly discussed the possibility of a Kanter/Zach Randolph swap with the Kings, but Sacramento is reluctant to move forward on such a trade without dumping at least one more expiring deal. In that scenario, the Kings would probably have to attach an asset like a draft pick or young prospect to entice the Knicks.

Kenneth Faried, F/C
Brooklyn Nets
$13.76MM cap hit; UFA in 2019

Faried has a pricey expiring contract and has been out of the Nets‘ rotation for most of the season, which seemingly makes him a prime buyout candidate, rather than a trade candidate. Still, if Brooklyn moves on from Faried, the club will explore the trade market before trying to negotiate a buyout (or simply waiving him).

With injuries plaguing the Nets’ roster, Faried got a chance to play 29 minutes in the team’s loss to Boston on Monday. He proved he’s still capable of crashing the boards, racking up a team-high 12 rebounds, including five on the offensive end. He spent some time as Brooklyn’s primary big man and alongside fellow bigs like Jarrett Allen or Ed Davis. Most intriguingly, he attempted four three-point shots, making one. By comparison, Faried had made 2-of-20 three-pointers in 441 career games entering this season.

If Faried can start knocking down outside shots with regularity, it could change his career trajectory — just ask former Net Brook Lopez. But he probably hasn’t shown enough yet to be a worthwhile gamble for any potential Brooklyn trade partners, unless it’s in a swap for unwanted expiring contracts. Faried remains a more likely buyout candidate than trade chip for now.

Norman Powell, G/F
Toronto Raptors
$9.37MM cap hit; three years, $32.6MM left on deal after this season

After signing a four-year contract extension during the fall of 2017, Powell turned in a dismal 2017/18 performance, averaging just 5.5 PPG with a .401 FG% and .285 3PT% (all career worsts). He has enjoyed a modest bounce-back season so far in 2018/19, the first year of his extension, posting 6.9 PPG with a .467 FG% and .333 3PT% in 21 games.

Still, at $10MM+ per year over four seasons, Powell is overpaid for his current role and production in Toronto. The Raptors are in the luxury tax this season and will remain there if they’re able to convince Kawhi Leonard to re-sign, so moving Powell’s contract would provide some long-term cap relief. It’s also a good size for salary-matching if the Raptors seek out a trade for a veteran play-maker or sharpshooter who could contribute more in the short term.

At age 25, Powell still has room to get better, and could develop into a reliable three-and-D wing with some play-making ability. But he hasn’t shown enough yet to make his long-term deal a positive asset. If Toronto wants to get a player of value back in return for him, the team would likely have to throw in a future draft pick or two as well.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors’ 2019 10-Day Contract Tracker

January 10th, 2019 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

On January 5, NBA teams became eligible to sign players to 10-day contracts, and the bulk of the signings that take place between January 15 (the two-way contract deadline) and April will likely be of the 10-day variety. Hoops Rumors has created a database that allows you to keep on top of those deals, tracking every 10-day signing all season long.

Our 10-Day Contract Tracker includes information on all 10-day contracts signed since the 2006/07 season, giving you a chance to identify trends regarding your favorite teams and players. The search filters in the database make it easy to sort by team, player and year. Just be sure to write a player’s last name first if searching in that field. You can also see whether a player and team signed a second 10-day contract, or if those short-term deals led to an agreement that covered the rest of the season.

For instance, if you want to see how many 10-day contracts current Suns big man Quincy Acy has signed over the course of his career, you can find that information here. Similarly, if you want to see all the 10-day contracts that the Suns have signed in recent years, you can do so here. Our tracker also notes which 10-day deals remain active, saving you from having to figure out whether a particular contract ends on Wednesday or Thursday.

A link to our 10-Day Contract Tracker can be found at any time in the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site. On our mobile site, you can find it on our “Features” page. We’ll be keeping it up to date for the rest of the season, so be sure to check back to keep tabs on the latest signings as they become official.

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Fantasy Hoops: Examining The Nuggets’ Rotation

January 8th, 2019 at 5:20pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Nuggets remain atop the Western Conference standings despite a bevy of injuries and constant shuffling of their lineup. This week, Denver provides a little more fantasy value to players in season-long leagues, as this squad is the only team to have five games scheduled this week.

During the Nuggets’ first game of the week against the Rockets on Monday, coach Mike Malone started a lineup of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Paul Millsap, and Nikola Jokic. The team brought Harris (hip injury) and Millsap (toe) along slowly, but their insertion into the starting lineup indicates the club plans to give both players their original roles back despite several players stepping up in their absence.

Harris left the game after 27 minutes of action with a hamstring injury and it would be surprising if he plays on the second night of a back-to-back tonight.

Millsap, who hasn’t quite been his diverse fantasy-self lately, admitted over the weekend that he’s still recovering from the toe injury which sidelined him for eight games.

“It’s still broke, but it doesn’t really bother me at all,” Millsap said (via Mike Singer of The Denver Post). “Tape it up, and I just get out there and play.”

Mason Plumlee performed well during the 11 starts he made over the last month, accumulating 8.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 57.1% from the field. He also averaged a block and steal per contest. He’s probably worth rostering this week with the extra games, though his long-term value is tied to Millsap. I’d bet on Millsap over Plumlee for the season if both are able to stay on the court.

Jokic is obviously the top fantasy contributor on the team. He ranks seventh overall on ESPN’s Player Rater over the last 30 days with Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns as the only two center-eligible players ahead of him. Earlier in the season, Joel Embiid ranked above Jokic in terms of long-term season value but that’s no longer the case with Jimmy Butler joining him in Philadelphia.

While Will Barton is getting closer to a return, we won’t see him on the court for a few weeks, as Malone recently announced. Barton is worth a stash and if someone else already has him, he’s a good trade target provided you’re in good position to make the playoffs.

Monte Morris and Malik Beasley are fine streaming options this week due to volume and Barton’s delayed return. Ditto with Craig, though none of the three should be considered a must-own for the season. If I had to pick one, it would be Beasley.

Murray, Jokic, Barton (even with the injury), Millsap and Harris are all players that should be rostered in 100% of leagues. There’s plenty of fantasy basketball value in Denver despite the ever-evolving circumstances.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Recap Of Non-Guaranteed Contract Decisions

January 7th, 2019 at 5:15pm CST by Luke Adams

January 7 represents a key date for the NBA players who are on non-guaranteed contracts for the 2018/19 season. While their salaries won’t technically become guaranteed until January 10, the players who remained under contract through 5:00pm ET today are now assured of those guaranteed salaries. If released tomorrow, they wouldn’t clear waivers by the start of January 10, so they’ve survived the cut.

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), only five players on non-guaranteed deals were released in advance of today’s deadline, so the rest of this season’s non-guaranteed players should be safe.

We’ll use the space below to break down those decisions from around the league. The following players will have their non-guaranteed 2018/19 salaries become fully guaranteed on Thursday:

The following players were waived within the last couple days before their salaries could become fully guaranteed. Their approximate cap hits are noted:

Technically, all of these players are now on waivers, so their salaries could still become fully guaranteed – and these cap hits could be removed from their old teams’ books – if they’re claimed by a new team. That seems unlikely, however.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Weekly Mailbag: 12/31/18 – 1/6/19

January 6th, 2019 at 12:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

How likely is it the Knicks can rid themselves of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee without taking back non-expiring contracts? Who could you see as potential trade partners. For Hardaway, I could see Memphis, Utah and Detroit. For Lee (and Hardaway) I could see Sacramento trying to bolster their lineup for a playoff push. — Eli Samuels

Virtually every team in the league places a high value on cap space, so it’s not going to be easy for the Knicks to move either player without taking on some long-term salary. Hardaway is owed $18.15MM next season and has an $18.975MM player option for 2020/21. That’s a lot of money for someone with a low field goal percentage (39.4%) and limited value beyond the scoring he provides. Lee is owed $12.76MM for next season, which is a gamble for a 33-year-old who has only played 10 games this season because of injuries. The Grizzlies have luxury tax concerns next year if Marc Gasol opts in, as do the Pistons, so neither team can really afford to add Hardaway. The Jazz are already set at shooting guard with Donovan Mitchell. The Knicks might have to attach a draft pick or two to entice someone to take Hardaway or Lee. Their willingness to do so may say a lot about how confident they are in their free agency pursuit of Kevin Durant.

Do you think Lauri Markkanen stays with Chicago through this next contract? I really hope he goes to a real team. — Bryan 

It’s unusual for a player to turn down a rookie contract extension, which the Bulls will almost certainly offer when Markkanen becomes eligible in the summer of 2020. As Chicago sorts through its young talent, it’s pretty clear Markkanen has star potential and will be part of the organization’s foundation for the future. After returning from an elbow injury he suffered in training camp, Markkanen is putting up better numbers than he did in his rookie season, raising his scoring averaging from 15.2 to 17.6 PPG and improving his 3-point percentage from 36.2% to 40.6%. He’ll be in Chicago for a long time. The only question is whether Bulls management can build a “real team” around him.

Where is the best fit for Tobias Harris in free agency? — Bryan 

Harris is putting up career-best numbers of 20.9 points and 8.0 rebounds per game and is poised for a huge raise from the $14.8MM he’s making this season. The Clippers own his Bird rights and can offer more years and higher annual raises than anyone else. It’s hard to envision a better situation than what Harris already has in Los Angeles. Even if the Clippers are successful in landing a star in free agency — the Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard is expected to be their main target — Harris would remain valuable in a complementary role.

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