Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Pelicans’ Playoff Chances

Coming off of a strong 48-win season and Western Conference Semifinals appearance, the Pelicans were widely expected to build on that success with a roster that, while flawed, played to the team’s strengths and style of play. Adding Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle around the core of Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic and Anthony Davis appeared to be solid moves on the surface, but injuries and poor play in close games have plagued the Pelicans so far.

The Pelicans currently sit at 16-21, good for 14th in the Western Conference. Payton has only played in six games so far, while Mirotic has missed significant time with an ankle injury, appearing in just 25 games. While Holiday, Davis and Randle have stayed healthy, the team’s lack of point guard and wing options have hampered their play.

What’s more troubling is that the Pelicans are 6-14 in clutch games, with an 87.2 offensive rating and 110.1 defensive rating in such situations. Their -22.9 net rating in the clutch is 29th in the league, behind only the Cavaliers. This is in stark contrast to last season, when the Pelicans went 30-20 in clutch games while posting a +8.2 net rating.

While many consider Davis to be an MVP candidate, he can only do so much with this current roster, despite having Holiday and Randle alongside him. The Pelicans have been one of the best offensive teams in the league (they currently own the league’s fourth ranked offense), but have been plagued by their 26th-ranked defense.

With that being said, the Pelicans are still just four games out of the playoff picture at the moment, with the surprising Kings holding down the eighth seed. There is certainly time for the Pelicans to turn things around just enough to squeeze into the playoffs, especially if they can stay healthy and/or make a trade to bolster the team’s depth in the backcourt or on the wing.

How do you feel about the Pelicans’ playoff chances? Vote in the poll below and share your thoughts in the comments section!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote

Weekly Mailbag: 12/24/18 – 12/30/18

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Where do you think Anthony Davis gets traded to after reports floated of Danny Ainge trying to trade for him, offering Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and LeBron James spotted having dinner with AD, Celtics or Lakers? — Greg Dizon

Trading Davis remains a last resort for the Pelicans and it will only happen if he turns down an extension this summer. But if he does become available, the Celtics and Lakers will both be ready to lavish New Orleans in riches to obtain his rights. Boston may have four first-rounders in this year’s draft, and L.A. has been building up young talent for several seasons. The Pelicans will want to make the best deal possible, but Davis’ decision to sign with Rich Paul, LeBron’s agent, offers a major clue to how things will play out. James and Paul wield a lot of power, and they won’t hesitate to throw it around to make Davis a Laker.

Do the Grizzlies make a move before the trade deadline? Who goes or who comes in? — David Day II, via Twitter

Memphis tried to get involved in the deal that sent Trevor Ariza from Phoenix to Washington and attempted to sign Austin Rivers after his buyout with the Suns, so there’s reason to believe the front office will continue to be active. There was a report last month that the Grizzlies contacted the Knicks about Frank Ntilikina, so the organization seems to believe it needs at least one more productive guard. Like a lot of teams, Memphis could be buyers or sellers by the February 7 deadline. Who goes and who stays will depend on what shape the playoff race takes over the next month.

Patrick McCaw‘s decision to hold out with such little leverage always seemed odd. Will it pay off with the offer from Cleveland? — J.B., via Twitter

Whether the Warriors elect to match or not, there is no guaranteed money in McCaw’s deal, at least for another week. The Cavaliers are giving him two non-guaranteed years at $6MM, but all NBA contracts guarantee for the rest of the year on January 10 and teams have to waive players to avoid that by January 7. So it looks like McCaw will receive $3MM this year, with a chance to earn another $3MM in 2019/20. That’s much better than the $1.7MM qualifying offer he turned down, and assuming he isn’t released, it beats the Warriors’ best offer of $5.2MM over two seasons with one year guaranteed. If McCaw winds up in Cleveland, he will get a chance to prove himself with a young team and set up a larger payday later on.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/22/18 – 12/29/18

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

  • In a special Fantasy Hoops post, Chris Crouse took a look at some helpful stats for this season’s Christmas Day games.
  • In this week’s Community Shootaround posts, we asked:
    • Which of the Christmas Day games were you most interested in watching?
    • What were your thoughts of the Christmas Day games, match-ups, results, etc. after the fact?
  • Our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry features an in-depth look at trade kickers and how they operate under the CBA.
  • In this week’s lone poll, we asked: Who should be considered the most serious threat to Giannis Antetokounmpo in this season’s MVP race?
  • Our Free Agent Stock Watch series highlighted the Southeast Division.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southeast Division

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southeast Division:

Jeremy Lin, Hawks, 30, PG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $38.3MM deal in 2016
Lin suffered a season-ending knee injury last October with Brooklyn. He’s bounced back impressively as the backup point guard in Atlanta. He’s averaging 10.9 PPG and 3.2 APG in 18.5 MPG while posting an above-average PER. For a contender looking to fill the same spot, Lin would be a viable option prior to the trade deadline. He’ll have to accept a lower salary with his next contract but he shouldn’t have too much trouble finding work in July.

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $11.8MM deal in 2015
Far removed from leading Wisconsin to the 2015 national championship, Kaminsky continues to disappoint as a pro. Under former coach Steve Clifford, Kaminsky was a steady presence in the rotation. First-year James Borrego has buried Kaminsky so deep on the bench that the stretch four hasn’t played the last three games. Kaminsky could be a restricted free agent if the Hornets extend a $4.9MM qualifying option but that’s not happening. He’ll be looking to hit the reset button in July.

Rodney McGruder, Heat, 27, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM deal in 2016
McGruder has started regularly for the Heat this season but that might not last much longer. He’s averaged 5.2 points in his last five outings while shooting 27.6 percent from the field. His PER is well below average. In McGruder’s favor is his team-friendly contract. He’ll be a restricted free agent if the Heat extend a $1.93MM qualifying offer. Whether he receives it will likely depend on how much cap space Pat Riley wants to open up.

Nikola Vucevic, Magic, 28, C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $53MM deal in 2015
Orlando has some young, athletic bigs but Vucevic is so productive, he’s maintained his minutes under new coach Steve Clifford. The veteran big man is averaging a career-high 20.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 3.6 APG. Like many 7-footers his age, Vucevic came into the league as mainly a low post player but has extended his range beyond the arc. He’s made 39% of his attempts this season. Currently ranked No. 10 in our Free Agent Power Rankings, Vucevic should be a nice consolation prize for a team with significant cap space that strikes out pursuing the biggest names on the market.

Trevor Ariza, Wizards, 33, SF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $15MM deal in 2018
Phoenix quickly moved Ariza to a team fighting for a playoff spot after giving him a nice one-year payday over the summer. The Wizards are just 1-4 since acquiring Ariza but what’s more significant is how many teams inquired about him before the trade. He reportedly drew interest from at least eight clubs. His 3-and-D skills remain in high demand and he should be able to land at least one more big-money contract before he retires.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: 2018/19 NBA MVP Race

We’re nearing the halfway mark of the 2018/19 NBA regular season, and a clear favorite has emerged in this season’s MVP race.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a 24-10 record (second-best in the NBA) with a +8.4 net rating (first). He’s averaging 26.5 PPG on an eye-popping .581 FG% and has posted career highs in RPG (12.8) and APG (5.9) while also chipping in excellent defensive numbers (1.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG).

By maximizing their roster around Antetokounmpo and bringing in a coach (Mike Budenholzer) who can get the most out of those players, the Bucks have paved the way for their 24-year-old star to take his game to the next level, and he looks like the frontrunner to snatch the 2018/19 NBA MVP award at this point.

We still have three and a half months to play though, and several other viable MVP candidates are looking to challenge Giannis. One is the reigning MVP, James Harden, whose league-leading 32.7 PPG have been buoyed by an eight-game run in which he has averaged a staggering 40.5 PPG. After a big Rockets win over the Celtics on Thursday night, Harden said there should be no doubt that he’s a candidate to win another MVP award, as Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com details.

“I mean, I receive a lot of hate, but it won’t stop me from going out there and killing every single night, being that dog that I am,” Harden said. “You can name a few other people that should be in the [MVP] conversation. But realistically? It’s coming back.”

Elsewhere in the West, the conference-leading Nuggets have a candidate of their own in Nikola Jokic, according to Ben Alamar of The Athletic, who explains why it’s not outlandish to consider the young center a realistic contender for the award. Jokic, who has always been an excellent offensive player, has made strides on defense and helped Denver post a 105.4 defensive rating (seventh) so far.

Warriors stars Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have been as good as ever this season, though they’ll likely split votes and will face an uphill battle if Golden State doesn’t win at least 55-60 games. The Thunder have a pair of stars too, and despite Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double again, it’s probably Paul George who deserves more MVP consideration at this point — George is averaging career bests in PPG (26.3) and RPG (8.4) while playing solid perimeter defense.

LeBron James had been putting together a strong case for the Lakers before being sidelined by a strained groin this week. That injury could actually work in his favor if he doesn’t miss much time and L.A. struggles to keep winning in his absence. Kawhi Leonard deserves a long look for the NBA-best Raptors, but he has already missed nine games and Toronto has done just fine (7-2) without him.

Joel Embiid has been the best player on a Sixers team stacked with talent, and the same is true of Kyrie Irving and the Celtics. Anthony Davis is also having another monster year, though he’ll need the 15-20 Pelicans to go on a prolonged hot streak to receive serious MVP consideration.

In today’s poll, we’re asking which player should be considered the most serious threat to Antetokounmpo in this season’s MVP race. Place your vote below, then head to the comment section to make your case for your pick — or to explain why Giannis shouldn’t necessarily be the considered the odds-on favorite.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Trade Kickers

While the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement limits the flexibility teams have to sweeten their offers to free agents, one tool clubs have at their disposal is a trade kicker. Also known as trade bonuses, trade kickers represent extra cash a player can receive if his team trades him, and are often written into contracts for major free agent signings or extensions.

Trade kickers can be represented in a fixed dollar amount or a percentage, or a combination of the two. For example, Kelly Olynyk‘s current contract with the Heat calls for a trade kicker worth the lesser amount of $2MM or 5% of his remaining salary.

Trade bonuses can’t exceed 15% of the player’s remaining salary. However, many of them are worth that maximum allowable amount. Currently, 18 of the 23 players with trade kickers have ones worth 15%.

[RELATED: NBA Players With Trade Kickers In 2018/19]

If a player with a 15% trade kicker has $10MM left on his contract and is traded, his bonus would be worth $1.5MM — 15% of $10MM. But the value of a trade kicker declines each passing day during the regular season, since the amount the player receives for the current year of his deal is prorated.

Here’s an example: Milos Teodosic is in the final year of his contract with the Clippers, earning a $6,300,000 salary with a 15% trade kicker. Technically, 15% of $6.3MM is $945K. However, 72 days of the 177-day regular season have already passed, so if Teodosic were traded today, his trade kicker would only apply to the 105 days remaining on his contract. He’ll make $3,737,288 during that stretch, so his 15% trade kicker would result in a bonus worth approximately $561K.

A trade kicker is paid by the team trading the player, and can only be paid out once during the player’s contract. For instance, Jeremy Lin had a trade bonus worth 10%, which he received when the Nets sent him to Atlanta during the 2018 offseason. If Lin is traded again by the Hawks, he wouldn’t get another trade bonus.

A pair of rules related to trade kickers have created some confusion about how the NBA would handle John Wall‘s 15% trade kicker if he’s traded this season. Those two rules are as follows:

  • A player can’t receive his full trade bonus if it would take him over his maximum allowable salary. Stephen Curry, Gordon Hayward, and LeBron James are among the players currently earning max salaries who have 15% trade kickers — those bonuses would be voided if any of those players were traded this season.
    • Note: A player can receive a portion of his trade bonus if his salary is worth less than the max and his bonus would take him over his max. This happened last season with Blake Griffin, whose partial bonus increased his salary to his max.
  • For cap purposes, a trade bonus is spread out over the remaining non-option years on a player’s contract. The exact dispersion depends on what percentage of each season’s salary is fully guaranteed. In basic terms though, if a player with a $3MM trade kicker has two guaranteed years left on his deal, $1.5MM would be applied to each season’s cap hit.
    • Note: In that same scenario, if a player’s second season was only 50% guaranteed, $2MM of his trade kicker would be applied to the first year and $1MM to the second year, to reflect the guarantee proportions. If the player’s second season was non-guaranteed, the full $3MM bonus would hit the cap in year one.

In Wall’s case, because he signed a super-max extension that goes into effect in 2019/20, he still has more than $180MM left on his contract, meaning a 15% trade bonus would be worth nearly $30MM. His salary for the 2018/19 season ($19,169,800) is well below his allowable maximum, so he should be eligible to receive that bonus. However, spreading the cap hits across five seasons would push his future salaries well above the max for those seasons, which isn’t allowed. It’s not clear how the NBA would handle that bonus if Wall is traded this season, since that specific situation has never arisen before.

A trade kicker can sometimes complicate salary matching in trades. Although the team trading away the player with the kicker pays the bonus money, that team still only counts the players’ original salary for matching purposes. However, the team acquiring the player must count his new cap figure for matching purposes.

For example, let’s say a player with three years and $30MM left on his contract ($10MM annual cap hits) has a 15% trade kicker. His bonus would work out to $4.5MM, which would be spread out across three seasons, adding $1.5MM to his current-year cap hit. The team acquiring him would view him as an $11.5MM player, while the team trading him would consider him a $10MM player. In some cases, that discrepancy can prevent a deal from working for one side from a salary-matching perspective.

In that scenario, the player is permitted to waive his trade bonus, clearing the way for a deal to work, but he’s under no obligation to do so. A player can waive his trade bonus for any other reason too, if he so chooses.

Here are several other rules related to trade kickers:

  • Player and team options aren’t taken into account when calculating trade bonuses, but early termination options are.
  • Only the base value of a contract is taken into account when calculating trade bonuses. Incentives aren’t considered.
  • Trade kickers can technically be included in rookie contracts, but a player on a rookie deal can’t exceed 120% of his rookie scale amount via a trade bonus, so this is extremely rare.
  • A minimum salary contract can include a trade bonus. If the bonus vests, the contract is no longer considered to be a minimum salary deal.
  • If a player signs an extension, a trade bonus can be added to or removed from his contract.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

An earlier versions of this post was published in 2013 by Chuck Myron.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Christmas Day Schedule

The NBA season never stops here at Hoops Rumors, but a lot of casual fans don’t start following the league until Christmas Day. That means their first taste of the 2018/19 campaign was watching the Knicks get steamrolled by Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

Yikes! Luckily, there were no hockey games for them to switch to.

Things got better for those who stayed around. James Harden took down Russell Westbrook and Paul George in a Western Conference battle, then the Celtics and Sixers followed with an overtime thriller. The Lakers put on an impressive performance in taking down the two-time defending champions, then the Jazz capped off the night by beating the Trail Blazers.

It was an impressive 13-hour Christmas showcase featuring many of the league’s best players, but there were still a few things missing. Like the Raptors, who arrived at Christmas with the league’s best record. And the Nuggets, who boast the best mark in the West. Also nowhere in sight were the Pacers (22-12 and third in the East) or the Clippers (19-14 and fifth in the West).

We understand the league office can’t predict everything when the schedule is being formulated in mid-summer, but Toronto seems like an egregious omission. After the trade that brought Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors, it seemed like the NBA office missed an easy way to score some holiday points with the TV audience north of the border. Instead, many Toronto fans spent the day complaining about the slight on social media.

We want to get your opinion on this year’s Yuletide selections. Were there other teams or players you would have preferred to see? Is it time to end the tradition of scheduling the Knicks on Christmas Day until they get good again? Should the Nets replace them to keep the New York audience? Is five straight games too many for one day? Or maybe too few? Please leave your responses and any other suggestions in the space below.

Community Shootaround: Christmas Games

At least one young superstar is thrilled to be playing on Christmas Day.

For Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, it’s a badge of honor. The Bucks haven’t been part of the NBA’s Christmas showcase since 1977.

“It’s real special. We’re really excited about this game,” he told Matt Velazquez of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “The Bucks haven’t played in a long time in a Christmas game, so we’re happy that we’re back. “Since I came to the NBA, I was always watching the Christmas games, always dreaming about playing in one. … It means a lot to us and hopefully we can put on a show.”

The Bucks are one of the league’s most entertaining and high-scoring teams but their game is merely an appetizer. They face the floundering Knicks, who have won just two of their last 13 games.

There are generally mixed feelings about playing on Christmas around the NBA. Some players love the spotlight and the drama. Others, especially the road teams, believe it’s unfair to be away from their homes and families. However, it’s a tradition that’s not going away.

The games that follow the BucksKnicks matchup should provide plenty of holiday entertainment for sports fans beyond the unwrapping of presents and piles of food on the plate.

The Thunder play the Rockets, featuring an entertaining duel between the last two MVPs, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Then comes the Sixers-Celtics showdown, a potential preview of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Naturally, LeBron James will be playing on Christmas as the Lakers face Kevin Durant and the Warriors. The guards take the spotlight in the final game of the day when the Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum square off against the Jazz’s Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio.

That takes us to our question of the day: Which Christmas Day game are you most interested in and why?

Please take to the comments section. We look forward to your input.

Fantasy Hoops: 12 Things To Note On Christmas Day (And Beyond)

The joys of Christmas day are heightened for NBA fans, as we get a full slate of highly anticipated matchups (in addition to the return of Game of Zones).

Hoops Rumors hopes that everyone has a great day and we’re here to help those of you invested in fantasy basketball matchups. Here’s a 12-pack of stats and notes to help you dominate in the fantasy basketball realm:

  1. No player has more points per game so far this month than Rockets star James Harden (34.2), though he’s heading toward a Christmas Day challenge against the Thunder, a team that has been the stingiest in terms of scoring by opposing point guards over their last 10 games.
  2. Knicks point guard Emmanuel Mudiay has been a great comeback story but beware of high expectations on Christmas day. Only the Pacers have allowed fewer fantasy points to the point guard position than the Bucks have over the past month.
  3. Paul George has been the most valuable fantasy player over the past 15 days, according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Over that stretch, the Thunder forward added positive value in all nine traditional categories.
  4. Thunder guard Russell Westbrook is making just 42.7% of his looks this season, including 24.3% of his shots from behind the arc. The lack of efficiency has always been the tax roto owners pay to get the elite production elsewhere but it’s been particularly cumbersome this season. His scoring is down roughly 20% since last year and his free throw shooting (5.4 attempts per game) is at a career-low 60.5%.
  5. Brandon Ingram returned from an ankle injury over the weekend and he gets a favorable matchup on Christmas Day. The former No. 2 over pick has spent approximately 60% of his minutes at shooting guard this season, per Basketball Reference’s position estimates, and the Warriors are allowing the 5th most points to the position over the past two weeks. Ingram, who has scored 19.0 points per game for the Lakers since returning from injury, is a nice daily fantasy option for Christmas day.
  6. Buddy Hield is on fire. Over the past four games, The Kings sharpshooter has made half of his 48 3-point attempts and he’s shooting 47.5% from the field. Only seven players are averaging more points per game over that stretch than Hield’s 28.5.
  7. Al Horford returned to the court over the weekend, playing 19 minutes for the Celtics. He’ll continue to be on a minutes-restriction going forward. Robert Williams is an intriguing option with Aron Baynes out for the foreseeable future, though Horford’s return puts a damper on the rookie’s fantasy potential.
  8. The Heat are ailing, but Justise Winslow has stepped up as a playmaker for the team. He scored 22 points against the Magic on Sunday, adding five assists, six rebounds and four steals in 31 minutes of action. He and Tyler Johnson are both trending upward, though there is a high cannibalization risk here.
  9. Pacers big man Myles Turner continues to dominate in the paint. The center grabbed 17 rebounds against the Wizards on Sunday. So far in December, he’s brought in at least 10 rebounds on eight occasions. He ranks 6th on ESPN’s Player Rater over the past 15 days.
  10. Bradley Beal became just the second player in Wizards history to record a 40-point triple double over the weekend (Chris Webber was the first). Beal has been an outstanding fantasy option over the last month, as only seven players have a higher player rating than Beal over the past 30 days.
  11. The Cavaliers moved Larry Nance Jr. into the starting lineup last week and he’s thrived in the four games since that move. He’s averaging 15.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game since the promotion to the starting five and he needs to be owned in 100% of leagues.
  12. I’m not sure we are talking about Rudy Gay enough. The Spurs swingman is making a career-high 53.3% of his looks and is an all-around contributor in both points and roto leagues. In addition to his FG%, he’s at a career-high in rebounds (9.0) and 3-pointers made (1.6). He has crept into the top 20 in ESPN’s Player Rater over the past 15 days.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/15/18 – 12/22/18

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days: