Hoops Rumors Originals

Fantasy Hoops: Harden, DeRozan, Rivers, Russell

January 3rd, 2019 at 2:03pm CST by ChrisCrouse

James Harden is unreal. Over his last 10 contests, he is averaging 40.8 points per game. Kobe Bryant (three times) and Michael Jordan (twice) are the only other players to score at least 400 points over a 10-game stretch in the last 30 years.

During the month of December, Harden scored 546 total points, 115 more than any other player (Paul George was second). For fantasy owners in both points and category leagues, he’s closing in on the top overall spot in terms of value (I’d still take Anthony Davis for No. 1 by the slightest margin) and there aren’t many players who are better to build around in daily leagues.

Harden is gunning for a second MVP and absolutely belongs in that conversation. Any talk of his unworthiness for a second trophy can only add fuel to his fire, which bodes well for employing him in the fantasy basketball world.

The Rockets are in action tonight against the Warriors in a night of great matchups. The Nuggets are visiting the Kings, while the Spurs will host Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors in the small forward’s first game back in San Antonio since being traded.

Let’s take a look at some more stats and notes surrounding these matchups, along with a few trends from around the league:

Eric Gordon won’t play for the Rockets for the second straight contest, keeping the door ajar for Austin Rivers to continue playing a major role. Rivers has been busy since signing with Houston, averaging 35.6 minutes per game (only Harden and P.J. Tucker have received more MPG since Rivers made his debut).
DeMar DeRozan is enjoying a solid season for the Spurs, but beware of inserting him into daily lineups tonight against his former team. Leonard will play and DeRozan has struggled when going up against the two-time Defensive Player of the Year. Over the last four seasons, DeRozan has made just 28 of his 58 attempts when playing against Leonard and has only attempted 19 free throws.
Since the start of December, no player has seen more minutes per game (39.3) than Wizards guard Bradley Beal. With John Wall out, expect Beal to continue to be among the league leaders in court time.
D’Angelo Russell had arguably the best game of his career for the Nets on Wednesday, scoring 22 points and dishing out 13 assists while committing just one turnover. Since Christmas Day, only six players have a higher usage rate than the former No. 2 overall pick and if Russell can keep the turnovers down, his fantasy value will continue to rise.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Heat Roster Logjam

January 2nd, 2019 at 9:34pm CST by clarkcrum

As we relayed earlier today, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is “sick” to his stomach about his inability to find minutes for veteran sharpshooter Wayne Ellington. And now that fellow guard and teammate Dion Waiters is set to return from his ankle injury, don’t expect playing time decisions to get any easier for Spoelstra.

Not counting Waiters or up-and-coming youngster Derrick Jones, the Heat already have 11 players on standard NBA contracts who log 20.5 minutes per game or more, the most of anyone in the league. And of those 12 players, seven are swingmen who play primarily on the wing (Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow, Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson, Ellington, and Waiters).

In tonight’s blowout win against the Cavs, Wade logged a DNP-Illness, with the remainder of the minutes on the wing going to Richardson (32), Jones (31), Winslow (27), Johnson (26), McGruder (21), and Waiters (11).

With Wade back in the mix soon and Waiters presumably playing his way into more minutes, the question becomes whether the Heat will move on from some of the aforementioned players, such as Waiters or Ellington, or keep the roster logjam as currently constructed as insurance in the event of another injury.

That brings us to our question of the day: Do you think the Heat should try to move on from some of their wings or keep them all around for the rest of the 2018/19 season? If they alter their roster, who is the most likely wing to be moved? Ellington? Waiters? Somebody else?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in. We look forward to your input.

Checking In On 2019’s Traded First-Round Picks

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:21pm CST by Luke Adams

Of the eight 2019 first-round picks that have already been traded, seven had some sort of protections on them from the moment they were dealt. The eighth – Sacramento’s first-rounder – started off as unprotected when it was sent to the Sixers, but Philadelphia added protections and swap rights to it when it was re-routed to Boston in 2017’s Markelle Fultz/Jayson Tatum blockbuster.

In other words, the destinations for all eight of this year’s traded first-round picks will hinge on the NBA’s 2018/19 league standings.

[RELATED: 2018/19 NBA Reverse Standings]

With the regular season nearing its halfway point, it’s worth checking in on those protected first-round picks to get a sense of which ones are likely to change hands and which ones may end up falling within their protected ranges.

Here’s a breakdown of where things stand right now:

Traded picks that are likely to change hands:

Kings‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-1
- Current draft slot: No. 14
Nuggets‘ pick to Nets
- Protection: Top-12
- Current draft slot: No. 28
Raptors‘ pick to Spurs
- Protection: Top-20
- Current draft slot: No. 29

The Nuggets and Raptors look like good bets to finish near the top of their respective conferences, so their late first-rounders will almost certainly be conveyed in 2019. As for the Kings‘ pick, it’ll head to Boston if it’s not the No. 1 overall pick and if it’s more favorable than Philadelphia’s first-round selection. Right now, the Sixers‘ first-rounder projects to be No. 24, so the Celtics will likely end up with Sacramento’s first-rounder.

Traded picks that are unlikely to change hands:

Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks
- Protection: Top-10
- Current draft slot: No. 1
Bucks‘ pick to Suns
- Protection: Top-3 and 17-30
- Current draft slot: No. 30

Even with the NBA’s new draft lottery rules instituted for 2019, teams can’t fall more than four spots as a result of the lottery results. So the Cavaliers would need to have a pretty strong second half for their pick to be in any real danger. The Bucks, meanwhile, have the NBA’s best record, so the odds of their first-rounder falling between 4-16 are minuscule.

Traded picks that remain up in the air:

Mavericks’ pick to Hawks
- Protection: Top-5
- Current draft slot: No. 11
Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-8
- Current draft slot: No. 13
Clippers‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-14
- Current draft slot: No. 19/20 (tie)

If the season ended today and there were no major lottery surprises, these picks would all change hands. Given how close the Western Conference standings are, however, that outlook could change quickly. Of these three teams, the Clippers may be the most likely to hang onto their pick, since they’ll need to make the playoffs in order for Boston to get their first-rounder.

The other two look reasonably likely to change hands for now, but the NBA’s new lottery system shouldn’t be overlooked as a potential wild-card factor here. Let’s say the Mavericks finish with the NBA’s 10th-worst record — under the old system, they would have had just a 4.0% chance at jumping into the top three. Under the new system, they’d have a 13.9% at moving into the top four and keeping their pick.

NBA Dates, Deadlines To Watch In January

December 31st, 2018 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Near the start of the 2018/19 campaign, we looked ahead and identified several dates and deadlines to watch on the NBA calendar throughout the rest of the season. While that list covered the general highlights, it’s worth taking a closer look at some of those key dates to keep an eye out for in January, which should be a busy month.

Let’s dive in…

Non-guaranteed contracts become guaranteed

January 10 is the date that all non-guaranteed NBA contracts for 2018/19 will officially become guaranteed, but January 7 is really the day to watch. If a team wants to avoid having a salary become guaranteed, the player must clear waivers before January 10, which means he needs to be cut by January 7, at the latest.

Many players without fully guaranteed salaries are in no danger of being waived within the next week, but some teams will take the opportunity to save a little money and open up a roster spot. Here’s the list of players to watch, including newly-signed Cavaliers guard Patrick McCaw.

Teams can begin signing players to 10-day contracts

Around the same time that several NBA clubs will be opening up a roster spot by waiving a player on a non-guaranteed salary, teams will also be able to use those newly-created openings to sign players to 10-day contracts. Those 10-day deals, which can be signed as of January 5, give teams the opportunity to pick up a short-term injury replacement, or perhaps to get a brief look at a standout G League player.

We extensively outlined the details of 10-day contracts and explained how they work in our glossary entry on the subject.

More players become trade-eligible

A huge percentage of the NBA’s offseason signees became eligible to be traded back on December 15, but there are still many players who can’t be dealt. By the end of January, that list of players ineligible to be traded will shrink further, since there are 24 players currently on track to have those restrictions lift this month.

January 15 is the key date, with 20 players becoming trade-eligible as of that Tuesday. That group features a number of players who almost certainly aren’t going anywhere, such as Nikola Jokic and Paul George. However, there are a handful of players on that list who could be involved in trade rumors in 2019, including Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors.

A few other offseason signees have unique trade-eligible dates this month, since they were signed sometime after September 15 or inked an offseason extension. Those players are Alfonzo McKinnie (January 12), Jamal Crawford (January 16), Shaquille Harrison (January 21), and Kevin Love (January 24).

Two-way contract deadlines

NBA teams will face a pair of key deadlines relating to two-way contracts in January. The first of those dates arrives on January 15, which is the last day that a team can sign a player to a two-way contract this season.

Most teams have already filled both of their two-way slots. Still, it’s safe to assume that a number of clubs will make changes at those spots within the next couple weeks, while teams with two-way openings – the Celtics, Knicks, and Trail Blazers – figure to fill them.

On January 20, all players on two-way contracts will have their G League salaries for the season become fully guaranteed.

Other odds and ends

There are a few other dates in January that are worth mentioning, despite the fact that they’ll likely come and go without much fanfare.

On January 10, mid-level and room exceptions – along with other cap exceptions like the bi-annual exception – will start to prorate for the year, meaning a team with its full room exception available would no longer be able to offer the full $4.449MM amount to a free agent. Exceptions will decline in value by 1/177th per day, starting on January 10.

January 15 is the last day that teams can apply for a disabled player exception to replace an injured player who is deemed unlikely to return this season. A disabled player exception can give a club extra cap flexibility, though that team may still have to open up a roster spot to add a player using its DPE. Our glossary entry explaining the disabled player exception can be found right here.

On January 29, a series of trade exceptions created in last year’s Blake Griffin blockbuster will expire, including a Pistons TPE worth $7MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Top NBA Stories Of 2018

December 31st, 2018 at 10:07am CST by Luke Adams

We’re on the verge of flipping the calendar to 2019, but before we close the book on 2018, we want to take a look back at The Year That Was in the NBA.

While the outcome of the 2018 NBA Finals in June wasn’t particularly surprising, the implications for the Warriors‘ ongoing dynasty were compelling — the Dubs have now won two consecutive championships and three of the last four, and they may not be done yet. Plus, the Finals provided at least one memorable moment in Game 1, when J.R. Smith apparently forgot that the Cavaliers didn’t have the lead, and dribbled out the clock of a tie game.

That night was a low point for Smith, who was also at the center of an unusual story back in March when he was suspended for throwing soup at an assistant coach. But he’s not the only one who has had a frustrating 2018.

Carmelo Anthony played his way out of Oklahoma City and Houston, and currently remains in limbo. He’s technically a member of the Rockets, but played his last game for the team back on November 8. Meanwhile, 2017’s first overall pick Markelle Fultz continues to struggle to make an impact on the court, and is currently sidelined with a physical ailment, despite speculation that some of his issues may be mental.

The Fultz saga hasn’t been the only major storyline in Philadelphia. The Sixers also lost a general manager in the summer when a bombshell report linked Bryan Colangelo to a series of burner Twitter accounts that criticized current and former 76ers players and revealed sensitive information about the team. Colangelo vehemently denied any knowledge of those tweets – an investigation revealed that his wife was operating the accounts – but it cost him his job.

The Colangelo situation was the sort of NBA story that keeps us glued to Twitter, fascinated by every new detail that emerges. Another situation that fits that bill played out earlier this month, when an apparent three-team trade involving the Wizards, Suns, and Grizzlies fell apart due to confusion over whether Memphis was including Dillon Brooks or MarShon Brooks in the deal. Washington and Phoenix eventually made a trade on their own, but not before plenty of finger-pointing about which team was to blame for the Brooks-related confusion.

Of course, player movement is our focus at Hoops Rumors, so that would-be three-team trade was right up our alley, but it was far from the biggest transaction-related news of 2018. LeBron James signing with the Lakers might earn the crown, though that move wasn’t nearly as shocking as the Clippers trading Blake Griffin to the Pistons, or DeMarcus Cousins signing with the Warriors, a deal that incited outrage among fans of 29 other teams on social media.

Prolonged trade sagas involving stars like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler dominated NBA headlines during the offseason too, with Butler’s performance in his return to Timberwolves practice standing out as a highlight. Paul George, who was traded a year earlier, surprised many NBA fans by re-signing with the Thunder shortly after free agency opened on July 1 without even giving the Lakers a meeting.

While those were some of the top NBA stories of 2018, there are countless others worth mentioning. How about the Raptors firing Coach of the Year Dwane Casey, or the near–mutiny in Chicago shortly after Jim Boylen took over as the Bulls‘ head coach? Drama has followed the Wizards all season too, from Marcin Gortat and John Wall taking shots at each other in February to Bradley Beal criticizing GM Ernie Grunfeld at a contentious practice in November. And commissioner Adam Silver has had to send separate memos to teams around the league this season to warn them about tanking and tampering.

With the year about to come to a close, we want to hear about your favorite NBA stories of the last 12 months. What will you remember most about the NBA in 2018 when you look back on it years from now?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Poll: Pelicans’ Playoff Chances

December 30th, 2018 at 9:26pm CST by Eric Spyropoulos

Coming off of a strong 48-win season and Western Conference Semifinals appearance, the Pelicans were widely expected to build on that success with a roster that, while flawed, played to the team’s strengths and style of play. Adding Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle around the core of Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic and Anthony Davis appeared to be solid moves on the surface, but injuries and poor play in close games have plagued the Pelicans so far.

The Pelicans currently sit at 16-21, good for 14th in the Western Conference. Payton has only played in six games so far, while Mirotic has missed significant time with an ankle injury, appearing in just 25 games. While Holiday, Davis and Randle have stayed healthy, the team’s lack of point guard and wing options have hampered their play.

What’s more troubling is that the Pelicans are 6-14 in clutch games, with an 87.2 offensive rating and 110.1 defensive rating in such situations. Their -22.9 net rating in the clutch is 29th in the league, behind only the Cavaliers. This is in stark contrast to last season, when the Pelicans went 30-20 in clutch games while posting a +8.2 net rating.

While many consider Davis to be an MVP candidate, he can only do so much with this current roster, despite having Holiday and Randle alongside him. The Pelicans have been one of the best offensive teams in the league (they currently own the league’s fourth ranked offense), but have been plagued by their 26th-ranked defense.

With that being said, the Pelicans are still just four games out of the playoff picture at the moment, with the surprising Kings holding down the eighth seed. There is certainly time for the Pelicans to turn things around just enough to squeeze into the playoffs, especially if they can stay healthy and/or make a trade to bolster the team’s depth in the backcourt or on the wing.

How do you feel about the Pelicans’ playoff chances? Vote in the poll below and share your thoughts in the comments section!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Weekly Mailbag: 12/24/18 – 12/30/18

December 30th, 2018 at 1:54pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Where do you think Anthony Davis gets traded to after reports floated of Danny Ainge trying to trade for him, offering Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and LeBron James spotted having dinner with AD, Celtics or Lakers? — Greg Dizon

Trading Davis remains a last resort for the Pelicans and it will only happen if he turns down an extension this summer. But if he does become available, the Celtics and Lakers will both be ready to lavish New Orleans in riches to obtain his rights. Boston may have four first-rounders in this year’s draft, and L.A. has been building up young talent for several seasons. The Pelicans will want to make the best deal possible, but Davis’ decision to sign with Rich Paul, LeBron’s agent, offers a major clue to how things will play out. James and Paul wield a lot of power, and they won’t hesitate to throw it around to make Davis a Laker.

Do the Grizzlies make a move before the trade deadline? Who goes or who comes in? — David Day II, via Twitter

Memphis tried to get involved in the deal that sent Trevor Ariza from Phoenix to Washington and attempted to sign Austin Rivers after his buyout with the Suns, so there’s reason to believe the front office will continue to be active. There was a report last month that the Grizzlies contacted the Knicks about Frank Ntilikina, so the organization seems to believe it needs at least one more productive guard. Like a lot of teams, Memphis could be buyers or sellers by the February 7 deadline. Who goes and who stays will depend on what shape the playoff race takes over the next month.

Patrick McCaw‘s decision to hold out with such little leverage always seemed odd. Will it pay off with the offer from Cleveland? — J.B., via Twitter

Whether the Warriors elect to match or not, there is no guaranteed money in McCaw’s deal, at least for another week. The Cavaliers are giving him two non-guaranteed years at $6MM, but all NBA contracts guarantee for the rest of the year on January 10 and teams have to waive players to avoid that by January 7. So it looks like McCaw will receive $3MM this year, with a chance to earn another $3MM in 2019/20. That’s much better than the $1.7MM qualifying offer he turned down, and assuming he isn’t released, it beats the Warriors’ best offer of $5.2MM over two seasons with one year guaranteed. If McCaw winds up in Cleveland, he will get a chance to prove himself with a young team and set up a larger payday later on.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/22/18 – 12/29/18

December 29th, 2018 at 1:20pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

In a special Fantasy Hoops post, Chris Crouse took a look at some helpful stats for this season’s Christmas Day games.
In this week’s Community Shootaround posts, we asked:
- Which of the Christmas Day games were you most interested in watching?
- What were your thoughts of the Christmas Day games, match-ups, results, etc. after the fact?
Our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry features an in-depth look at trade kickers and how they operate under the CBA.
In this week’s lone poll, we asked: Who should be considered the most serious threat to Giannis Antetokounmpo in this season’s MVP race?
Our Free Agent Stock Watch series highlighted the Southeast Division.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southeast Division

December 28th, 2018 at 7:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southeast Division:

Jeremy Lin, Hawks, 30, PG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $38.3MM deal in 2016
Lin suffered a season-ending knee injury last October with Brooklyn. He’s bounced back impressively as the backup point guard in Atlanta. He’s averaging 10.9 PPG and 3.2 APG in 18.5 MPG while posting an above-average PER. For a contender looking to fill the same spot, Lin would be a viable option prior to the trade deadline. He’ll have to accept a lower salary with his next contract but he shouldn’t have too much trouble finding work in July.

Frank Kaminsky, Hornets, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $11.8MM deal in 2015
Far removed from leading Wisconsin to the 2015 national championship, Kaminsky continues to disappoint as a pro. Under former coach Steve Clifford, Kaminsky was a steady presence in the rotation. First-year James Borrego has buried Kaminsky so deep on the bench that the stretch four hasn’t played the last three games. Kaminsky could be a restricted free agent if the Hornets extend a $4.9MM qualifying option but that’s not happening. He’ll be looking to hit the reset button in July.

Rodney McGruder, Heat, 27, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM deal in 2016
McGruder has started regularly for the Heat this season but that might not last much longer. He’s averaged 5.2 points in his last five outings while shooting 27.6 percent from the field. His PER is well below average. In McGruder’s favor is his team-friendly contract. He’ll be a restricted free agent if the Heat extend a $1.93MM qualifying offer. Whether he receives it will likely depend on how much cap space Pat Riley wants to open up.

Nikola Vucevic, Magic, 28, C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $53MM deal in 2015
Orlando has some young, athletic bigs but Vucevic is so productive, he’s maintained his minutes under new coach Steve Clifford. The veteran big man is averaging a career-high 20.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 3.6 APG. Like many 7-footers his age, Vucevic came into the league as mainly a low post player but has extended his range beyond the arc. He’s made 39% of his attempts this season. Currently ranked No. 10 in our Free Agent Power Rankings, Vucevic should be a nice consolation prize for a team with significant cap space that strikes out pursuing the biggest names on the market.

Trevor Ariza, Wizards, 33, SF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $15MM deal in 2018
Phoenix quickly moved Ariza to a team fighting for a playoff spot after giving him a nice one-year payday over the summer. The Wizards are just 1-4 since acquiring Ariza but what’s more significant is how many teams inquired about him before the trade. He reportedly drew interest from at least eight clubs. His 3-and-D skills remain in high demand and he should be able to land at least one more big-money contract before he retires.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: 2018/19 NBA MVP Race

December 28th, 2018 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re nearing the halfway mark of the 2018/19 NBA regular season, and a clear favorite has emerged in this season’s MVP race.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has led the Bucks to a 24-10 record (second-best in the NBA) with a +8.4 net rating (first). He’s averaging 26.5 PPG on an eye-popping .581 FG% and has posted career highs in RPG (12.8) and APG (5.9) while also chipping in excellent defensive numbers (1.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG).

By maximizing their roster around Antetokounmpo and bringing in a coach (Mike Budenholzer) who can get the most out of those players, the Bucks have paved the way for their 24-year-old star to take his game to the next level, and he looks like the frontrunner to snatch the 2018/19 NBA MVP award at this point.

We still have three and a half months to play though, and several other viable MVP candidates are looking to challenge Giannis. One is the reigning MVP, James Harden, whose league-leading 32.7 PPG have been buoyed by an eight-game run in which he has averaged a staggering 40.5 PPG. After a big Rockets win over the Celtics on Thursday night, Harden said there should be no doubt that he’s a candidate to win another MVP award, as Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com details.

“I mean, I receive a lot of hate, but it won’t stop me from going out there and killing every single night, being that dog that I am,” Harden said. “You can name a few other people that should be in the [MVP] conversation. But realistically? It’s coming back.”

Elsewhere in the West, the conference-leading Nuggets have a candidate of their own in Nikola Jokic, according to Ben Alamar of The Athletic, who explains why it’s not outlandish to consider the young center a realistic contender for the award. Jokic, who has always been an excellent offensive player, has made strides on defense and helped Denver post a 105.4 defensive rating (seventh) so far.

Warriors stars Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have been as good as ever this season, though they’ll likely split votes and will face an uphill battle if Golden State doesn’t win at least 55-60 games. The Thunder have a pair of stars too, and despite Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double again, it’s probably Paul George who deserves more MVP consideration at this point — George is averaging career bests in PPG (26.3) and RPG (8.4) while playing solid perimeter defense.

LeBron James had been putting together a strong case for the Lakers before being sidelined by a strained groin this week. That injury could actually work in his favor if he doesn’t miss much time and L.A. struggles to keep winning in his absence. Kawhi Leonard deserves a long look for the NBA-best Raptors, but he has already missed nine games and Toronto has done just fine (7-2) without him.

Joel Embiid has been the best player on a Sixers team stacked with talent, and the same is true of Kyrie Irving and the Celtics. Anthony Davis is also having another monster year, though he’ll need the 15-20 Pelicans to go on a prolonged hot streak to receive serious MVP consideration.

In today’s poll, we’re asking which player should be considered the most serious threat to Antetokounmpo in this season’s MVP race. Place your vote below, then head to the comment section to make your case for your pick — or to explain why Giannis shouldn’t necessarily be the considered the odds-on favorite.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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