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Fantasy Hoops: Examining The Nuggets’ Rotation

January 8th, 2019 at 5:20pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Nuggets remain atop the Western Conference standings despite a bevy of injuries and constant shuffling of their lineup. This week, Denver provides a little more fantasy value to players in season-long leagues, as this squad is the only team to have five games scheduled this week.

During the Nuggets’ first game of the week against the Rockets on Monday, coach Mike Malone started a lineup of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Paul Millsap, and Nikola Jokic. The team brought Harris (hip injury) and Millsap (toe) along slowly, but their insertion into the starting lineup indicates the club plans to give both players their original roles back despite several players stepping up in their absence.

Harris left the game after 27 minutes of action with a hamstring injury and it would be surprising if he plays on the second night of a back-to-back tonight.

Millsap, who hasn’t quite been his diverse fantasy-self lately, admitted over the weekend that he’s still recovering from the toe injury which sidelined him for eight games.

“It’s still broke, but it doesn’t really bother me at all,” Millsap said (via Mike Singer of The Denver Post). “Tape it up, and I just get out there and play.”

Mason Plumlee performed well during the 11 starts he made over the last month, accumulating 8.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 57.1% from the field. He also averaged a block and steal per contest. He’s probably worth rostering this week with the extra games, though his long-term value is tied to Millsap. I’d bet on Millsap over Plumlee for the season if both are able to stay on the court.

Jokic is obviously the top fantasy contributor on the team. He ranks seventh overall on ESPN’s Player Rater over the last 30 days with Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns as the only two center-eligible players ahead of him. Earlier in the season, Joel Embiid ranked above Jokic in terms of long-term season value but that’s no longer the case with Jimmy Butler joining him in Philadelphia.

While Will Barton is getting closer to a return, we won’t see him on the court for a few weeks, as Malone recently announced. Barton is worth a stash and if someone else already has him, he’s a good trade target provided you’re in good position to make the playoffs.

Monte Morris and Malik Beasley are fine streaming options this week due to volume and Barton’s delayed return. Ditto with Craig, though none of the three should be considered a must-own for the season. If I had to pick one, it would be Beasley.

Murray, Jokic, Barton (even with the injury), Millsap and Harris are all players that should be rostered in 100% of leagues. There’s plenty of fantasy basketball value in Denver despite the ever-evolving circumstances.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Recap Of Non-Guaranteed Contract Decisions

January 7th, 2019 at 5:15pm CST by Luke Adams

January 7 represents a key date for the NBA players who are on non-guaranteed contracts for the 2018/19 season. While their salaries won’t technically become guaranteed until January 10, the players who remained under contract through 5:00pm ET today are now assured of those guaranteed salaries. If released tomorrow, they wouldn’t clear waivers by the start of January 10, so they’ve survived the cut.

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), only five players on non-guaranteed deals were released in advance of today’s deadline, so the rest of this season’s non-guaranteed players should be safe.

We’ll use the space below to break down those decisions from around the league. The following players will have their non-guaranteed 2018/19 salaries become fully guaranteed on Thursday:

The following players were waived within the last couple days before their salaries could become fully guaranteed. Their approximate cap hits are noted:

Technically, all of these players are now on waivers, so their salaries could still become fully guaranteed – and these cap hits could be removed from their old teams’ books – if they’re claimed by a new team. That seems unlikely, however.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Weekly Mailbag: 12/31/18 – 1/6/19

January 6th, 2019 at 12:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

How likely is it the Knicks can rid themselves of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee without taking back non-expiring contracts? Who could you see as potential trade partners. For Hardaway, I could see Memphis, Utah and Detroit. For Lee (and Hardaway) I could see Sacramento trying to bolster their lineup for a playoff push. — Eli Samuels

Virtually every team in the league places a high value on cap space, so it’s not going to be easy for the Knicks to move either player without taking on some long-term salary. Hardaway is owed $18.15MM next season and has an $18.975MM player option for 2020/21. That’s a lot of money for someone with a low field goal percentage (39.4%) and limited value beyond the scoring he provides. Lee is owed $12.76MM for next season, which is a gamble for a 33-year-old who has only played 10 games this season because of injuries. The Grizzlies have luxury tax concerns next year if Marc Gasol opts in, as do the Pistons, so neither team can really afford to add Hardaway. The Jazz are already set at shooting guard with Donovan Mitchell. The Knicks might have to attach a draft pick or two to entice someone to take Hardaway or Lee. Their willingness to do so may say a lot about how confident they are in their free agency pursuit of Kevin Durant.

Do you think Lauri Markkanen stays with Chicago through this next contract? I really hope he goes to a real team. — Bryan 

It’s unusual for a player to turn down a rookie contract extension, which the Bulls will almost certainly offer when Markkanen becomes eligible in the summer of 2020. As Chicago sorts through its young talent, it’s pretty clear Markkanen has star potential and will be part of the organization’s foundation for the future. After returning from an elbow injury he suffered in training camp, Markkanen is putting up better numbers than he did in his rookie season, raising his scoring averaging from 15.2 to 17.6 PPG and improving his 3-point percentage from 36.2% to 40.6%. He’ll be in Chicago for a long time. The only question is whether Bulls management can build a “real team” around him.

Where is the best fit for Tobias Harris in free agency? — Bryan 

Harris is putting up career-best numbers of 20.9 points and 8.0 rebounds per game and is poised for a huge raise from the $14.8MM he’s making this season. The Clippers own his Bird rights and can offer more years and higher annual raises than anyone else. It’s hard to envision a better situation than what Harris already has in Los Angeles. Even if the Clippers are successful in landing a star in free agency — the Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard is expected to be their main target — Harris would remain valuable in a complementary role.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/29/18 – 1/5/19

January 5th, 2019 at 1:03pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

  • In a Fantasy Hoops post, Chris Crouse takes a look at the absurdly good numbers that James Harden has been putting up lately, among other fantasy notes.
  • In this week’s lone poll, we asked whether the recently struggling Pelicans will make the playoffs in the Western Conference?
  • In his Weekly Mailbag, Arthur Hill answered readers’ questions regarding trade rumors surrounding Anthony Davis, a premonition about a trade involving the Grizzlies, and the free agency strategy employed by Patrick McCaw.
  • In this week’s Community Shootaround posts, we asked:
  • January is an important month in the NBA, and Luke Adams has you covered with all of the significant upcoming deadlines.
  • Luke Adams also dives into some analysis on the status of 2019 first-round NBA draft picks that have been traded to other teams.
  • Following the Bulls/Grizzlies trade centered around Justin Holiday, Luke Adams rounded up some contract- and CBA-related details.
  • Both the Wizards and Pelicans are teams to keep an eye in the next couple of days when looking for players on non-guaranteed contracts who may be waived.
  • Our Free Agent Stock Watch series highlighted the Northwest Division.
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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

January 4th, 2019 at 9:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Raul Neto, Jazz, 26, PG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $4.4MM deal in 2018
Neto’s $2.15MM salary for next season becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster after July 6. Even though it’s not much money, Neto has given the Jazz little reason to keep him around. He’s not in the rotation with Dante Exum backing up Ricky Rubio. Except for a blowout win over the Knicks in which he played 20 minutes, Neto has either been benched or seen fewer than four minutes over the past 10 games. With Rubio headed to unrestricted free agency, it’s conceivable Utah could exercise that option as insurance. The Brazilian native is more likely to continue his career elsewhere, probably overseas.

Trey Lyles, Nuggets, 23, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $10.4MM deal in 2015
Lyles has received rotation minutes but his offensive numbers have declined. He’s shooting just 41.1% from the field and 24.1% beyond the arc, compared to a 49.1/38.1 slash line last season. He was mired in a terrible slump last month, making just 32.3% (18.6% from distance) of his field goal attempts. Lyles will be a restricted free agent if the Nuggets extend a $4.63MM qualifying option. That may depend on some other factors. They hold a $30MM team option on Paul Millsap‘s contract. It’s also predicated on whether they believe Michael Porter Jr. will contribute significantly next season.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Thunder, 23, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4.26MM deal in 2016
Luwawu-Cabarrot, a 2016 first-round pick by the Sixers in 2016, got some opportunities in his first two seasons with Philadelphia. His court time has diminished considerably in Oklahoma City. After playing in 69 games (19 starts) in his rookie year and 52 last season, Luwawu-Cabarrot has languished at the end of OKC’s bench despite Andre Roberson‘s injury issues. He’s played just 12 minutes since November 28. The Thunder didn’t pick up Luwawu-Cabarrot’s option during the offseason, so he’ll be unrestricted in July. It will be interesting to see if any team believes he has untapped potential or whether he’ll have to seek overseas opportunities.

Taj Gibson, Timberwolves, 33, PF (Up) — Signed to a two-year, $28MM deal in 2017
Gibson has become a more efficient offensive player in recent years while providing his usual toughness in the paint as well as rebounding. Gibson remains one of the top offensive rebounders in the league (2.7 per game) and has kept a positive attitude despite the addition of Dario Saric, which has cut into his minutes. If Tom Thibodeau remains in charge, the Timberwolves will likely try to re-sign him. Otherwise, Gibson will find work as a 25-30 minute option at power forward for a suitor looking for an upgrade at that position.

Nik Stauskas, Trail Blazers, 25, SG (Down)– Signed to a one-year, $1.6MM deal in 2018
Stauskas is playing for his fourth organization in five seasons. He will be on the move again if his shooting doesn’t perk up. After a strong start, Stauskas has gone into an offensive funk. He made just 24.3% of his 3-point attempts in December and went scoreless in a nine-minute stint against Sacramento in his first 2019 appearance. Stauskas reached double figures in five of his first eight games with the franchise but has hit that mark just twice since that point. With first-rounder Anfernee Simons showing no signs of taking Stauskas’ rotation spot, the Blazers may try to acquire a wing player before the trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Five Non-Guaranteed Contract Situations To Watch

January 4th, 2019 at 7:06pm CST by Luke Adams

While non-guaranteed NBA contracts don’t technically become fully guaranteed until next Thursday, Monday is really the day to watch. Because players have to clear waivers before January 10 to avoid having their salaries locked in for the rest of 2018/19, a team will have to release a player by January 7 at the latest to avoid guaranteeing his contract.

As our list of non-guaranteed contracts by team shows, there are a number of players around the NBA who don’t have fully guaranteed deals, though many are in no danger of being waived by Monday. It’s not as if the Sixers are seriously considering whether or not to guarantee T.J. McConnell‘s minimum salary. Ditto for the Jazz and Royce O’Neale, and several others players on that list.

However, there are at least a handful of players worth keeping an eye on as Monday’s deadline nears. Here’s a quick breakdown of some of them:

  1. Michael Carter-Williams, PG (Rockets): Most criticism of the Rockets‘ offseason moves has focused on Carmelo Anthony, but signing Carter-Williams hasn’t worked out for the team either. The former Rookie of the Year has fallen out of the rotation and looks like a potential trade candidate, as David Weiner of ClutchFans.net recently observed (via Twitter). His minimum salary only has a partial guarantee of $1.2MM, but the Rockets would have to eat that amount if they waive him — and would be on the hook for the associated tax penalty. By trading him and including some cash in the deal, Houston could eliminate his cap hit and reduce its projected tax bill, saving a little money. A trade partner would only be on the hook for about $500K of MCW’s salary if he’s waived immediately, and could more than make up that amount with the cash the Rockets sent their way.
  2. Patrick McCaw, SG (Cavaliers): I don’t expect the Cavaliers to waive McCaw. He’s a young wing who has some upside, and Cleveland can afford to take a long look at him this season before making a decision on his non-guaranteed 2019/20 salary. Still, when the Cavs finalized his offer sheet last week, they also elected to make his first-year salary non-guaranteed, so they have an exit door for a few more days if they want it.
  3. James Nunnally, G/F (Timberwolves): After thriving as a three-point marksmen in Europe, Nunnally appeared poised to contribute right away for a Timberwolves team in need of shooting. Instead, he has played just 61 total minutes for the club, primarily in garbage time. Nunnally is the only one of Minnesota’s 15 players on a non-guaranteed contract, so if the club wants to open up a roster spot for potential 10-day signings, he’d probably be the odd man out.
  4. The Pelicans’ non-guaranteed players: No team has more players on non-guaranteed contracts than the Pelicans, who have yet to lock in full-season salaries for Jahlil Okafor, Tim Frazier, and Kenrich Williams. Okafor has played a regular role recently and Frazier was a frequent starter with Elfrid Payton sidelined, so Williams may be the player most at risk here. Since the Pelicans will likely try to be active on the trade market, opening a spot on their 15-man roster by waiving one of these three would create some added flexibility in those discussions.
  5. The Wizards’ non-guaranteed players: With John Wall out for the season, the Wizards currently have two guards – Ron Baker and Chasson Randle – on non-guaranteed deals, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of them is cut by Monday. Although they’re carrying an NBA-minimum 14 players, the Wizards are allowed to dip down to 13 for up to two weeks at a time and did so earlier in 2018/19 to help keep their projected tax bill in check. It’s possible they’ll do so again now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: All-Star Starters

January 4th, 2019 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

The first returns on fan voting for the 2019 NBA All-Star Game were announced on Thursday, and most of the results weren’t too surprising.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and Joel Embiid lead the frontcourt voting in the Eastern Conference, while Kyrie Irving is the top vote-getter among Eastern guards. In the West, LeBron James and Stephen Curry – last year’s All-Star captains – have received the most early votes.

However, several of the other names near the top of those lists may have inspired a double-take. Rookie of the Year frontrunner Luka Doncic has the second-most votes among Western frontcourt players, ahead of Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and Paul George, among others. In the backcourt, Derrick Rose ranks No. 2 in fan voting, ahead of James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, and others.

In the East, fans apparently want to see Dwyane Wade in the All-Star Game once more before he retires — he ranks second in votes among guards, ahead of Kemba Walker, Ben Simmons, Victor Oladipo, and others.

All-Star voting will remain open for two and a half more weeks, so the current order can – and almost certainly will – change. Plus, fan votes only make up 50% of the consideration for the All-Star Game’s starting lineup, with players (25%) and media (25%) also receiving a portion of the vote. So the early results don’t mean that we’ll see Doncic, Rose, and Wade starting in Charlotte next month.

Still, given the popularity of Doncic, Rose, and Wade early in the process, there’s a discussion to be had here.

Has Doncic shown enough in his 36 NBA games to earn an All-Star spot? Does it make sense to reward Rose for his bounce-back season or Wade on his farewell tour? Or would you rather just see the best first-half players in the starting lineups? And, if that’s the case, which five Eastern and five Western players do you believe deserve those spots?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on this season’s All-Star lineups.

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Leftover Cap Details On Bulls/Grizzlies Trade

January 4th, 2019 at 12:57pm CST by Luke Adams

On Thursday, the Grizzlies and Bulls completed the fifth in-season trade of the NBA’s 2018/19 campaign, with Chicago sending Justin Holiday to Memphis in exchange for two players and two second-round draft picks.

While this deal was hardly a blockbuster, it features a few salary cap related details worth noting, so we’ll round those up in this space…

The Bulls create a modest traded player exception:

The Grizzlies had no traded player exceptions large enough to absorb Holiday’s $4,384,616 salary, so they had to aggregate MarShon Brooks ($1,656,092) and Wayne Selden ($1,544,951) for matching purposes. As a result, they didn’t create a TPE as a result of the deal.

On the other hand, the Bulls were able to take on Selden using the minimum salary exception, since he’s earning his minimum. As such, Chicago essentially traded Holiday straight up for Brooks for salary-matching purposes, leaving the Bulls with a trade exception worth the difference between the two players’ salaries: $2,728,524.

Why flipping MarShon Brooks may not be as easy as it seems:

Brooks is earning more than Selden this season because he has more years of NBA experience, but he’s also making the minimum salary. So why were the Bulls able to use the minimum salary exception to absorb Selden, but not Brooks?

Well, even though Brooks is earning his minimum this season, the first season of his deal wasn’t worth the minimum, as cap expert Albert Nahmad notes (via Twitter). The Grizzlies signed Brooks to a two-year pact last April, with just six days left in the 2017/18 campaign. A minimum salary contract would have paid him just $49,877 for those six days, but because Brooks was drawing interest from other suitors, Memphis upped its offer using a portion of its mid-level exception, giving him $249,348. That’s five times the amount of his prorated minimum.

As such, Brooks’ contract isn’t technically considered a minimum salary deal, which is why the Bulls had to account for that $1,656,092 for matching purposes.

Now, with the Bulls reportedly looking to flip Brooks to another team, those same rules apply. Like Chicago, a new trade partner wouldn’t be able to use the minimum salary exception to acquire Brooks. That trade partner would need a trade exception big enough to absorb his salary or would have to send back a contract in return.

That could eliminate a number of potential landing spots for the veteran guard and make it a little more challenging for the Bulls to make a second deal.

The Grizzlies still have a small amount of breathing room below the tax line:

The Grizzlies were pretty close to the luxury tax threshold before this trade. Having taken on a little money in acquiring Holiday, they’re even closer now. According to Bobby Marks of ESPN.com (Twitter link), Memphis has approximately $463K in breathing room before becoming a taxpayer.

While the Grizzlies opened up a roster spot by making a two-for-one deal, using that roster spot on a rest-of-season contract right now would take them into the tax. A veteran player (at least two years of experience) signed to a minimum salary deal today would have a cap hit of $829K.

Teams can begin signing 10-day contracts as of Saturday, and the Grizzlies could fit one of those under the tax line — a veteran on a 10-day deal would cost about $85K. So Memphis could afford five 10-day contracts for the rest of the season. A sixth would take the team into tax territory.

The Grizzlies could make a separate cost-cutting move before the February 7 trade deadline to create a little more wiggle room to sign a player. If they don’t reduce their team salary, however, that 15th roster spot is probably a good bet to remain open for a good chunk of the second half.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Fantasy Hoops: Harden, DeRozan, Rivers, Russell

January 3rd, 2019 at 2:03pm CST by ChrisCrouse

James Harden is unreal. Over his last 10 contests, he is averaging 40.8 points per game. Kobe Bryant (three times) and Michael Jordan (twice) are the only other players to score at least 400 points over a 10-game stretch in the last 30 years.

During the month of December, Harden scored 546 total points, 115 more than any other player (Paul George was second). For fantasy owners in both points and category leagues, he’s closing in on the top overall spot in terms of value (I’d still take Anthony Davis for No. 1 by the slightest margin) and there aren’t many players who are better to build around in daily leagues.

Harden is gunning for a second MVP and absolutely belongs in that conversation. Any talk of his unworthiness for a second trophy can only add fuel to his fire, which bodes well for employing him in the fantasy basketball world.

The Rockets are in action tonight against the Warriors in a night of great matchups. The Nuggets are visiting the Kings, while the Spurs will host Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors in the small forward’s first game back in San Antonio since being traded.

Let’s take a look at some more stats and notes surrounding these matchups, along with a few trends from around the league:

  • Eric Gordon won’t play for the Rockets for the second straight contest, keeping the door ajar for Austin Rivers to continue playing a major role. Rivers has been busy since signing with Houston, averaging 35.6 minutes per game (only Harden and P.J. Tucker have received more MPG since Rivers made his debut).
  • DeMar DeRozan is enjoying a solid season for the Spurs, but beware of inserting him into daily lineups tonight against his former team. Leonard will play and DeRozan has struggled when going up against the two-time Defensive Player of the Year. Over the last four seasons, DeRozan has made just 28 of his 58 attempts when playing against Leonard and has only attempted 19 free throws.
  • Since the start of December, no player has seen more minutes per game (39.3) than Wizards guard Bradley Beal. With John Wall out, expect Beal to continue to be among the league leaders in court time.
  • D’Angelo Russell had arguably the best game of his career for the Nets on Wednesday, scoring 22 points and dishing out 13 assists while committing just one turnover. Since Christmas Day, only six players have a higher usage rate than the former No. 2 overall pick and if Russell can keep the turnovers down, his fantasy value will continue to rise.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Heat Roster Logjam

January 2nd, 2019 at 9:34pm CST by clarkcrum

As we relayed earlier today, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is “sick” to his stomach about his inability to find minutes for veteran sharpshooter Wayne Ellington. And now that fellow guard and teammate Dion Waiters is set to return from his ankle injury, don’t expect playing time decisions to get any easier for Spoelstra.

Not counting Waiters or up-and-coming youngster Derrick Jones, the Heat already have 11 players on standard NBA contracts who log 20.5 minutes per game or more, the most of anyone in the league. And of those 12 players, seven are swingmen who play primarily on the wing (Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow, Dwyane Wade, Tyler Johnson, Ellington, and Waiters).

In tonight’s blowout win against the Cavs, Wade logged a DNP-Illness, with the remainder of the minutes on the wing going to Richardson (32), Jones (31), Winslow (27), Johnson (26), McGruder (21), and Waiters (11).

With Wade back in the mix soon and Waiters presumably playing his way into more minutes, the question becomes whether the Heat will move on from some of the aforementioned players, such as Waiters or Ellington, or keep the roster logjam as currently constructed as insurance in the event of another injury.

That brings us to our question of the day: Do you think the Heat should try to move on from some of their wings or keep them all around for the rest of the 2018/19 season? If they alter their roster, who is the most likely wing to be moved? Ellington? Waiters? Somebody else?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in. We look forward to your input.

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