Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Playoff Seeding Battles

April 13th, 2024 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

With all 30 NBA teams enjoying a day off on Saturday, we have just one day of regular season games remaining in 2023/24, with 15 games on Sunday’s slate.

Amazingly, through 81 games, only three playoff seeds have been determined — the Celtics own the No. 1 seed in the East, the Clippers control No. 4 in the West, and the Mavericks are No. 5 in the West.

We also know that the Bulls are locked into the No. 9 spot in the East and will host the No. 10 Hawks in one of next week’s play-in games.

Besides that though, 15 of the 20 total top-10 seeds in the two conferences remain up for grabs, with much to be determined based on Sunday’s results.

Here’s a look at the matchups to watch and the scenarios in play on Sunday:

Western Conference

Battle for the No. 1 seed:

The Nuggets were in the driver’s seat for the top spot in the West, but as Bennett Durando of The Denver Post writes, they fell victim to another monster night from Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama on Friday, blowing a 23-point lead and falling all the way to third place in the conference standings as a result of a disappointing loss in San Antonio.

The Thunder and Timberwolves are now tied with Denver in the standings. All three teams have 56-25 records, but Oklahoma City holds the three-way tiebreaker, with Minnesota taking the second spot over the Nuggets for now. Their Sunday matchups are as follows:

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

If all three teams win or all three lose on Sunday, the current order in the standings (OKC at No. 1, Minnesota at No. 2, and Denver at No. 3) will remain as is. Here are the other scenarios in play on Sunday:

A Timberwolves win paired with either a Nuggets loss or a Thunder loss would give Minnesota the No. 1 seed, since the Wolves hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams.
The only scenario in which the Timberwolves would fall to No. 3 would be if they lose and the Thunder and Nuggets both win. That’s not inconceivable, given that Minnesota has the toughest matchup of the three — the Suns still have something to play for, whereas the Mavs’ playoff seed is assured and the Grizzlies are lottery-bound.
A Thunder win will ensure they claim the No. 1 seed unless the Nuggets lose and the Timberwolves win. The Thunder can fall to No. 3 only if they lose and the Nuggets win, regardless of what happens with Minnesota.
The Nuggets can only claim the No. 1 seed it they win and the Timberwolves and Thunder both lose. They could move up to No. 2 with a win as long as one of OKC or Minnesota loses. Otherwise they’ll place third.

The final top-six spot:

It’s down to the Pelicans and the Suns for the No. 6 spot in the West. Whichever team misses out on the final guaranteed playoff spot will finish seventh and will host the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in matchup.

New Orleans (49-32) has a one-game lead over Phoenix (48-33), but the Suns hold the tiebreaker edge. The Suns’ only path to No. 6 is to pick up a win in Minnesota while the Pelicans lose at home to the Lakers. Either a Pelicans win or a Suns loss would lock New Orleans into No. 6 and Phoenix into No. 7.

Given that both the Wolves and Lakers still have something to play for on Sunday, this outcome is far from certain.

The Nos. 8 through 10 seeds:

The Lakers (46-35), Kings (45-36), and Warriors (45-36) could each end up anywhere from No. 8 to 10 in the West depending on how the final day’s games play out.

The drop-off from each spot to the next is significant — the eighth-place team will only have to win one of two play-in games to earn a playoff berth and would get the second game at home if it loses the first one on the road. The ninth-place team would have to win two play-in games – one at home and one on the road – just to earn the No. 8 playoff seed, while the 10th-place team would need to win a pair of play-in contests on the road to claim that No. 8 seed.

The Lakers control their own destiny due to their one-game lead on Sacramento and Golden State, but they also have the most difficult matchup of the three teams on Sunday. Those games are as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors

New Orleans pulled out a big win over Golden State on Friday in a game that Klay Thompson said “stings a lot,” per Anthony Slater of The Athletic. The Pelicans won’t be letting their foot of the gas on Sunday as they look to secure a top-six seed, so a Lakers loss is in play.

If the Lakers do lose and both the Kings and Warriors win, Sacramento would move up to No. 8 and Golden State would move up to No. 9, sending L.A. to No. 10. That’s the only scenario in which the Lakers could slip to tenth place. A win would earn them the No. 8 spot, as would all three teams losing. They’d drop to No. 9 if they lose and just one of the Kings or Warriors wins.

The Kings are in relatively good shape. A win over the lottery-bound Blazers, which seems like a relatively safe bet, will assure them of at least the No. 9 spot. They’d fall to No. 10 only if they lose and Golden State wins.

The Warriors’ only path to No. 8 would involve a Golden State win combined with Lakers and Kings losses. That might be a long shot, so it’s perhaps not surprising that head coach Steve Kerr left the door open to possibly resting some key veterans on Sunday to make sure those banged-up players are ready for the first play-in game next week (Twitter link via Slater).

Eastern Conference

Battle for the No. 2 seed:

The reeling Bucks (49-32) have lost seven of their last 10 games, opening the door for either the Knicks (49-32) or Cavaliers (48-33) to steal away the No. 2 seed.

Still, Milwaukee remains at the front of this race. The Bucks own the tiebreaker over the Knicks, so they just need a win – or for all three teams to lose – in order to clinch No. 2. Unfortunately, they’re missing superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and have the most challenging matchup of any of the three contenders for No. 2. Sunday’s games are as follows:

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Magic continue to battle for a top-six seed in the East, whereas the Bulls are locked into No. 9 and the Hornets are a non-playoff team.

If the Knicks and Cavaliers win and the Bucks don’t, New York would move up to No. 2, Cleveland would take No. 3, and Milwaukee would slide all the way to No. 4. The Bucks could salvage the No. 3 seed even if they lose, as long as at least one of the Knicks or Cavs also lose.

A worst-case scenario for the Knicks would be a three-team tie, which would occur if they and the Bucks lose and the Cavs win. In that case, Cleveland would be No. 2 and New York would slip to No. 4.

Mayhem in the No. 5-8 range:

No section of the standings is more up in the air entering Sunday’s action than the fifth through eight seeds in the East, where four teams – the Magic (46-35), Pacers (46-35), Sixers (46-35), and Heat (45-36) – could all still finish anywhere from No. 5 to 8.

Before we try to untangle this convoluted knot, let’s take a look at the relevant Sunday games:

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

All four clubs are at home, but some of these matchups are more favorable than others. The Nets and Raptors are lottery teams who don’t have anything to play for, so it’s hard to imagine them upsetting the Sixers or Heat, respectively. That will put pressure on the Magic and Pacers, who would hang onto the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds if they both win on Sunday.

As detailed above, Milwaukee is trying to clinch the No. 2 seed and will be motivated to beat Orlando. Atlanta is locked into No. 10, but knocking off Indiana could benefit the Hawks, who will need to beat one of these teams to make the playoffs, assuming they make it past Chicago. Atlanta might prefer seeing the Pacers instead of the Sixers or Heat in a play-in battle next week — beating Indiana on Sunday would increase the odds of that.

There are too many scenarios in play here to run through them all, but here are a few worth mentioning:

The Sixers would move up to No. 5 if they beat Brooklyn and the Hawks beat Indiana.
The Pacers would move up to No. 5 if they beat Atlanta and the Bucks beat Orlando.
The Heat can only get to No. 5 if they win and the Magic, Pacers, and Sixers all lose, resulting in a four-way tie. They could move up to No. 6 if they win, the Magic lose, and one of the Pacers or Sixers lose.
The Magic would fall to No. 8 if they lose and the Heat and Pacers win, regardless of what happens in the Sixers game. Orlando could also end up at No. 8 if Miami is the only one of these teams to win and they end up in a four-way tie.
The only scenario in which the Pacers could fall to No. 8 is if they lose and the Magic, Sixers, and Heat all win. Like the Magic, they’ll clinch a top-six playoff berth with a win.

The full table of Eastern Conference scenarios can be found right here, per the NBA, while all the Western outcomes are here.

We want to know what you think. How do you expect Sunday’s games to play out? Which teams will take the No. 1 seed in the West and the No. 2 seed in the East? Which clubs will claim the final playoff spots in each conference? And which team of the Lakers, Kings, and Warriors will end up in the 7-8 game instead of 9-10?

Head to the comment section below to make your predictions!

What To Watch For In Final Weekend Of NBA’s Regular Season

April 12th, 2024 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2023/24 regular season will wrap up on Sunday , which means we now have just three days left in the season. Here are a few things worth keeping an eye on during those three days:

Playoff berths and seeding

Eastern Conference:

The Celtics locked up the No. 1 seed in the East long ago, but no other Eastern Conference club between No. 2 and No. 8 has clinched a specific seed, and the Bucks and Knicks are the only other teams that have secured playoff berths. Here are the standings in that section of the East entering Friday:

Milwaukee Bucks (49-31)
New York Knicks (48-32)
Cleveland Cavaliers (47-33)
Orlando Magic (46-34)
Indiana Pacers (46-34)
Philadelphia 76ers (45-35)
Miami Heat (44-36)

The NBA’s schedule-makers did well with Friday’s slate — the Magic will face the Sixers in Philadelphia, while the Cavaliers host the Pacers in Cleveland.

Road wins by Orlando and Indiana would lock in the East’s six playoff teams, leaving the 76ers and Heat to compete in the 7-8 play-in game. Victories by the Cavs and Sixers, on the other hand, would clinch Cleveland’s playoff spot and put Orlando, Indiana, and Philadelphia in a three-way tie for the final two playoff spots, with Miami – which hosts the Raptors on Friday – potentially just a single game back.

The Cavaliers (vs. Hornets), Pacers (vs. Hawks), Sixers (vs. Nets), and Heat (vs. Raptors again) all have favorable home matchups on Sunday. The Magic may be the one exception, as they’ll be hosting the Bucks, who will likely need at least one win this weekend to clinch the No. 2 seed. Milwaukee visits the Thunder on Friday in a challenging matchup, while the Knicks’ schedule wraps up with very winnable home games against the Nets and Bulls.

Western Conference:

Five teams have clinched playoff spots in the West, but the No. 1 seed remains up for grabs, with the Nuggets (56-24) holding a slight edge over the division-rival Timberwolves (55-25) and Thunder (55-25).

Denver is on the road for its final two games, but faces a pair of lottery teams in San Antonio and Memphis. Winning both of those contests would lock up the No. 1 seed for the Nuggets, but they can’t afford a misstep, since both the Wolves and Thunder hold the tiebreaker edge over them. Still, Minnesota (vs. Atlanta, vs. Phoenix) and Oklahoma City (vs. Milwaukee, vs. Dallas) have tougher weekend matchups.

The Clippers (51-29) and Mavericks (50-30) are locked into the 4-5 matchup in the West, but home-court advantage remains up for grabs. Since L.A. has the tiebreaker advantage, the Clippers need just one more win or one Mavs loss this weekend to secure the No. 4 seed. Since the Clips are at home vs. Utah and Houston, that’s a pretty safe bet.

The rest of the West’s playoff picture looks like this:

New Orleans Pelicans (48-32)
Phoenix Suns (47-33)
Sacramento Kings (45-35)
Golden State Warriors (45-35)
Los Angeles Lakers (45-35)

Either the Pelicans or the Suns will claim the sixth guaranteed playoff spot in the West, while the other will have to win a play-in game to secure their playoff berth.

Phoenix has the tiebreaker edge over New Orleans, but as long as the Pelicans win out, they remain in the driver’s seat. That’ll be easier said than done though. The Pels have a showdown with the Warriors in Golden State on tap for Friday night, then host the Lakers on Sunday. The Suns also have a difficult path to two wins though, with road games against the Kings on Friday and Timberwolves on Sunday.

If the Pelicans beat out the Suns for the No. 6 seed, it’ll be four Pacific teams in the play-in tournament, with the Kings, Warriors, and Lakers all battling to avoid ending up in the 9-10 matchup — the winner of that game would have to win a second play-in game (on the road) to earn the No. 8 playoff seed, so getting into the 7-8 play-in contest would be big.

Sacramento has been the coldest of those three teams as of late, but holds the tiebreaker advantage and finishes its season by hosting the lottery-bound Trail Blazers on Sunday. A win over Phoenix on Friday would be huge for the Kings, almost certainly assuring them of a spot in the 7-8 play-in game.

The Warriors also close the season on Sunday with a favorable matchup (vs. Utah), so if they can pull out a home victory over the Pelicans on Friday, they’ll be in good position to get either the No. 8 or 9 seed.

The Lakers have the friendliest matchup on Friday (at Memphis), but would place last in a three-team tie with the Kings and Warriors, so they’ll be under pressure to win in New Orleans on Sunday.

Here are the details from the NBA on the clinching scenarios in both conferences for Friday’s games.

Traded draft picks and lottery odds

The Kings‘ 2024 first-round pick will be sent to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 14. Given that Sacramento is now in play-in territory and is at risk of missing the playoffs, that’s a first-rounder worth watching closely. That obligation to Atlanta would be rolled over to 2025 if the Kings are a lottery team this year.

There are several more traded first-round picks that have a wide range of possibilities depending on where teams finish in the standings and how the play-in tournament plays out. For example, the Pacers owe the Raptors their (top-three protected) first-round pick. If Indiana clinches a top-six spot in the East, that pick figures to be around 18 or 19. On the other hand, if the Pacers fall into play-in territory and then get eliminated, it’ll be a lottery selection.

The Warriors‘ (top-four protected) pick to the Trail Blazers and the Lakers‘ (unprotected) pick to the Pelicans also fall into this category. It’s worth noting that New Orleans has the option to defer Los Angeles’ first-rounder to 2025. There has been an expectation that the Pels might go that route due to this year’s weak draft class, but it’ll be hard to pass on that ’24 pick if it’s in the lottery.

Speaking of the lottery, there are still some odds to be finalized there. The Pistons and Wizards will be among the teams with a league-best 14% chance at this year’s No. 1 pick, but who will join them as the third team in that group? The Spurs (20-60), Hornets (20-60), and Trail Blazers (21-59) all still have a chance.

For what it’s worth, in the event that two or more of those teams finish with identical records, the odds for their lottery slots will be averaged out, as we explain in our glossary entry on the draft lottery.

For instance, let’s say San Antonio, Charlotte, and Portland each lose their final two games and the Spurs and Hornets are tied for the NBA’s third-worst record. In that scenario, instead of the third-worst team having a 14% shot at the top pick and the fourth-worst team having a 12.5% chance, a coin flip would determine which team’s odds are 13.3% and which team gets a 13.2% chance at No. 1.

Notably, the Raptors also need one more loss – or one more Grizzlies win – to secure the No. 6 spot in the lottery standings, which would significantly increase their odds of hanging onto the top-six protected first-rounder they owe the Spurs. In that scenario, Toronto would have a 45.8% chance to keep the pick and a 54.2% chance that it slides to No. 7 or lower and is sent to San Antonio.

Award races

Nuggets center Nikola Jokic appears to have locked up his third Most Valuable Player in the past four seasons, but it’s possible that voters for other end-of-season awards could be swayed by what happens in the final weekend of the season.

For instance, if Tyrese Maxey has huge games on Friday and Sunday to help the Sixers secure a top-six seed in the East, it would put an emphatic stamp on his case for Most Improved Player. If Naz Reid has a big weekend for a Timberwolves team that reclaims the No. 1 seed, it would only make him a stronger Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

I wouldn’t expect any awards to be decided by what happens in the next few days, but certain scenarios could help clarify a difficult choice for a voter who’s on the fence.

Teams with open roster spots

As we outlined on Tuesday, there are still a handful of teams with open spots on their standard 15-man rosters. Those teams are as follows:

Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors
- Note: The Raptors technically have a full 15-man roster on Friday, but will open up a spot on Saturday following the expiration of Malik Williams‘ 10-day contract.

It’s not unprecedented for a team to leave a roster spot open at the end of the season, but it’s somewhat rare — all 30 teams finished the season with full 15-man squads in each of the past two years.

Most of all of these teams are good bets to make a roster move before their final games tip off on Sunday, even if it’s as simple as promoting a two-way player to a standard contract to make him postseason-eligible.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

April 10th, 2024 at 12:51pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place annually between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold those teams’ first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four selections in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
140 combinations, 14.0%
140 combinations, 14.0%
125 combinations, 12.5%
105 combinations, 10.5%
90 combinations, 9.0%
75 combinations, 7.5%
60 combinations, 6.0%
45 combinations, 4.5%
30 combinations, 3.0%
20 combinations, 2.0%
15 combinations, 1.5%
10 combinations, 1.0%
5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for all 14 lottery teams. Each figure in the table represents a percentage rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column (the NBA’s worst team is the first seed), while the picks are noted along the top row.

Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1	–	–	–	–
7	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
8	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
9	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
10	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	19	1.2	>0	>0
11	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
12	1.5	1.7	1.9	2.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	6.7	0.1
13	1	1.1	1.2	1.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.9	2.3
14	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

The NBA’s lottery format was changed in 2019 and that year’s draft was the first one to use the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery and the odds were weighted more heavily in favor of the league’s worst teams.

Beginning in 2021, the NBA’s lottery underwent another small change when the league introduced the play-in tournament. The lottery now includes the 10 teams that miss out on the playoffs and the play-in tournament, plus the four clubs that are eliminated in the play-in portion of the postseason.

That means a team can finish the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in its conference, but if that club is eliminated in the play-in tournament, it will be in the lottery. Conversely, a team that finishes ninth or 10th in its conference during the regular season and then wins a pair of play-in games to earn a playoff spot will be a non-lottery team.

Once the 14 lottery teams are determined, their lottery odds are still dictated by their regular season records, so the play-in losers won’t necessarily be the 11-14 “seeds” in the lottery. For example, in 2022, the 34-48 Spurs ended up with better lottery odds than the 37-45 Knicks or 35-47 Wizards, even though San Antonio participated in the Western Conference play-in tournament while New York and Washington didn’t qualify for the East’s play-in.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in past years.

Final Check-In On Open NBA Roster Spots

April 9th, 2024 at 12:59pm CST by Luke Adams

With just six days left in the NBA’s regular season, there are still a few teams around the league with open 15-man roster spots, and there’s little downside to filling those openings before the regular season ends.

For playoff teams, adding one more player would create a little extra depth in the event of postseason injuries or garbage-time minutes. For non-playoff teams, it makes sense to try to convince a young player to accept a multiyear deal that includes little or no guaranteed money beyond this season, since it gives those teams another option for next year’s roster.

Even clubs over the luxury tax line or right up against it shouldn’t have a problem paying one more player a prorated minimum salary for the last day or two of the season — the prorated minimum for a veteran on a rest-of-season deal is just $11,608 per day, which is a drop in the bucket for NBA franchises.

With all that in mind, it’s safe to assume that some – if not all – of the teams with open roster spots should fill them by next Sunday. Here are those teams:

Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors *

The Raptors technically have a full 15-man roster as of today, but one of their players – Malik Williams – is on a 10-day contract. When Williams’ deal expires on Friday night, I’d expect Toronto to look to sign either him or another player to a multiyear contract that gives the team some roster flexibility beyond this season.

As for the other three teams here, the Warriors, Pelicans, and Sixers are all poised to at least compete in a play-in game or two, if not the playoffs themselves. But that doesn’t necessarily mean each of those teams will sign a “win-now” veteran as a 15th man. They already have enough depth on their respective rosters that they may prefer to promote a player from the G League on a multiyear deal, assuming they decide to fill those openings at all.

Converting a player from a two-way contract is a real possibility for each of those three clubs, with Sixers guard Ricky Council looking like the best candidate of the bunch.

While New Orleans and Philadelphia have remained out of luxury tax territory, Golden State is far above the tax line and is therefore the team most likely to wait until the very last day of the regular season to make a move, since adding a 15th man will cost the Warriors more than just $11,608.

The Cavaliers (Marcus Morris), Pistons (Chimezie Metu), Timberwolves (Luka Garza), Celtics (Neemias Queta), and Suns (Isaiah Thomas) are among the teams who had been carrying an open 15-man roster spot but who have filled that opening within the last week or two.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there are a handful of clubs with two-way contract slots available, but the deadline for two-way signings passed in early March, so those roster spots will remain open.

Community Shootaround: Better Prospect — Edey Or Clingan?

April 8th, 2024 at 5:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NCAA Tournament title game not only features the two most dominant teams this season but also the top big men in Division I. It’s a matchup of old-school centers between two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey of Purdue and Donovan Clingan of UConn.

In a different era, those low-post giants would have been the top picks of the draft. The 7’4” Edey has faced double and triple teams most of his college career but has simply towered over and overpowered those defenders. He’s finishing his college career with a flourish, averaging 28.0 points, 15.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.8 blocks during this year’s tournament.

Clingan was the nation’s best backup big man last season behind Adama Sanogo. The 7’2” Clingan moved into a starting role this season and has improved his draft stock this spring by averaging 16.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 3.6 blocks in the Huskies’ five tournament victories.

They are menacing low post presences at both ends of the floor but the college game is different from the pros. Traditional NBA centers have given way to more athletic players who can guard multiple positions and step out to stretch the floor offensively.

Edey has improved his conditioning — he’s averaging 35 minutes in the NCAAs — and footwork but does most of his damage within eight feet of the basket. The Boilermakers’ guards are adept at getting the ball to Edey at his sweet spots in the low post. Similarly, his defensive prowess is predicated on his sheer size and bulk.

Clingan offers a similar menacing presence at the rim but he’s more mobile and can cover more ground. He’s an effective screen-and-roller but, like Edey, most of his buckets come at or near the basket. He’s made a few three-pointers but, like Edey, will have to work on extending his range.

Currently in a weak draft, Clingan is considered the best domestic product. He’s listed as No. 3 overall on ESPN’s latest Best Available list. Edey is ranked No. 2 among centers and No. 13 overall. It’s a major rise for a projected second-round prospect last year when Edey tested the draft waters before deciding to return to Purdue one more season.

That brings us to our topic of the day: Which center in tonight’s NCAA championship game will have the biggest impact in the NBA — Purdue’s Zach Edey or UConn’s Donovan Clingan?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

How Starter Criteria Will Impact QOs For Potential 2024 RFAs

April 7th, 2024 at 4:40pm CST by Luke Adams

As we outlined in a glossary entry earlier today, the value of a qualifying offer for a player eligible for restricted free agency can increase or decrease depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency — or if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

In many cases, the difference in the qualifying offer amounts is negligible. For instance, since the Sixers will almost certainly sign Tyrese Maxey to a long-term, maximum-salary contract this summer, it doesn’t really matter that he has bumped the value of his qualifying offer a little by meeting the starter criteria.

But in other cases, the adjusted qualifying offer amount could have a real impact on how a player’s free agency plays out by making his team more or less likely to actually issue the QO — and by making the player more or less likely to accept it.

Here are the players whose projected qualifying offers will change as a result of the starter criteria this season:

Players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 who met the starter criteria:

Saddiq Bey (Hawks)
Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)
Immanuel Quickley (Raptors)

Bey, Maxey, and Quickley would have had qualifying offers worth $6,498,258, $6,259,588, and $6,128,004, respectively, if they had fallen short of the starter criteria. Instead, their QOs will each be worth $8,486,620.

As noted above, the QO change won’t have any effect on Maxey’s free agency. It’s unlikely to affect Quickley either, since the Raptors will be looking to sign him to a multiyear deal. But it could make a difference for Bey, who tore his ACL last month to bring an up-and-down season to an early end.

A healthy Bey would probably be a safe bet to to get his qualifying offer despite a disappointing season, but ACL recoveries are lengthy processes. If Bey isn’t going to play much – or at all – next season, will the Hawks want to risk him accepting a one-year qualifying offer worth $8.5MM that would set him up to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025?

That QO decision will likely depend on whether or not the Hawks envision Bey as part of their long-term future and whether they expect to reach a multiyear agreement with him.

Second-round picks or undrafted free agents who met the starter criteria:

Simone Fontecchio (Pistons)

An experienced veteran who will turn 29 later this year, Fontecchio spent the first part of his career playing in Europe and has just two years of NBA experience, so he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer. His qualifying offer got bumped from $3,806,090 to $5,216,324 when he met the starter criteria.

Fontecchio has been a bright spot in Detroit, averaging 15.4 points per game with a .426 3PT% in 16 games as a Piston. Based on those numbers – and his solid first-half play in Utah – the Italian wing is probably in line for a salary exceeding $5.2MM, which means the QO bump shouldn’t be a difference-maker.

Top-14 picks who won’t meet the starter criteria:

Kira Lewis (Jazz)
Obi Toppin (Pacers)
James Wiseman (Pistons)

As a former No. 2 overall pick, Wiseman would have been in line for a qualifying offer worth $15,815,870 if he had made at least 41 starts or played 2,000 minutes. Because he fell short, his actual QO will be worth less than half that ($7,744,600).

Wiseman hasn’t shown a whole lot in Detroit, averaging just 6.9 points and 5.0 rebounds in 16.6 minutes per game this season across 59 appearances. But the Pistons will have a ton of cap room this offseason — maybe they’d be comfortable bringing back Wiseman for one more year and trying again to unlock his full potential if the price is just $7.7MM instead of $15.8MM. I’m still skeptical he’ll get that qualifying offer, but it’ll at least be a tougher decision now.

Toppin’s qualifying offer, meanwhile, will drop from $9,170,460 to $7,744,600, but I think the Pacers would have extended it either way. The former No. 8 overall pick has had his best season in 2023/24 as a reserve in Indiana, establishing new career highs in points per game (10.1), field goal percentage (57.2%), and three-point percentage (40.3%), among other categories.

The qualifying offer change for Lewis is marginal — his QO will dip by less than $200K from $7,913,687. He’s unlikely to receive it either way.

It’s worth noting that three other top-14 picks from the 2020 draft met the starter criteria this season. The qualifying offers for Bulls forward Patrick Williams and Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro will remain at $12,973,527 and $11,828,974, respectively. Those aren’t cheap, but I’d still be a little surprised if either team decides to pass on the QO.

Former Pistons guard Killian Hayes also met the starter criteria, but was later waived, so he won’t get a qualifying offer this June. If he had remained under contract and was eligible to receive one, it would have been worth $9,942,114.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Starter Criteria

April 7th, 2024 at 3:25pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players once they’re eligible for restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if he makes 30 starts in his contract year after making 52 starts the season before, he would meet the starter criteria.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria impacts the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2024, the value of this QO will be $7,744,600.
- Example: Pacers forward Obi Toppin (2020’s No. 8 overall pick) won’t meet the starter criteria this season. As a result, he’ll be eligible for a QO worth $7,744,600 instead of $9,170,460.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2022, the value of this QO will be $8,486,620.
- Example: Hawks forward Saddiq Bey (2018’s No. 19 overall pick) has met the starter criteria this season. As a result, he’ll be eligible for a QO worth $8,486,620 instead of $6,498,258.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2022, the value of this QO will be $5,216,324.
- Example: Pistons wing Simone Fontecchio (an undrafted free agent) has met the starter criteria this season. As a result, he’ll be eligible for a QO worth $5,216,324 instead of $3,806,090.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player who is eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

One notable example occurred in 2020 when Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, which ensured that his qualifying offer would have been worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800. The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta.

If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, Chicago likely would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Information from Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

Community Shootaround: Who Will Win The West?

April 6th, 2024 at 3:59pm CST by Rory Maher

The Celtics currently hold a 14-game lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, making them a very strong favorite to reach the NBA Finals, though that outcome is far from assured.

The standings are much more competitive in the West though. The seedings are still up for grabs, but the top 10 teams are all but secured after Golden State beat Houston on Thursday.

The Timberwolves are currently the No. 1 seed due to a tiebreaker over the defending-champion Nuggets, who hold an identical 53-24 record. The upstart Thunder are one game back at No. 3, followed by the Clippers, Mavericks and Suns.

The Pelicans, Kings, Lakers and Warriors are currently the Nos. 7 through 10 seeds, meaning they’d be in the play-in tournament if the season ended today. Only two games separate Phoenix and the Lakers, however, so things could certainly change between now and April 14, when the regular season concludes.

Each of the top teams in the West has question marks ahead of the postseason, mostly due to injuries. Minnesota may not have Karl-Anthony Towns back before the first round, and the team has only advanced past that stage one time in franchise history. Denver, which went 16-4 in last year’s playoffs en route to its first title in 2023, has been playing without star guard Jamal Murray of late, though he may return soon.

Oklahoma City is young and is not playoff tested, plus MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been sidelined recently with a quad injury. Kawhi Leonard is currently dealing with a knee injury for the Clippers.

The Mavericks have dealt with injuries to rotation players throughout the season, though they’re the hottest team in Conference at the moment. Phoenix’s “big three” has only played in 36 games together in 2023/24. New Orleans, Sacramento, the Lakers and Golden State have all been inconsistent throughout the season.

With so many unknowns, it makes it difficult to pick a favorite. That leads us to our question of the day: Who do you think will advance out of the West and make the NBA Finals? Head to the comments and let us know what you think.

Community Shootaround: Sixth Man Award

April 2nd, 2024 at 8:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Malik Monk appeared to have the Sixth Man of the Year award locked up.

Monk emerged as the heavy favorite for the award among the betting public with a career year. The Kings guard has posted averages of 15.6 points and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.1% from beyond the arc. However, he will be sidelined for at least the remainder of the regular season due to a right MCL sprain.

The Sixth Man award is one of the few that isn’t subject to the 65-game minimum, which Monk surpassed anyway. But his absence down the stretch due to a knee injury could open the door for another candidate.

Monk’s main competitor for the award, Timberwolves big man Naz Reid, is receiving heavy minutes due to Karl-Anthony Towns’ knee injury. He averaged 16.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.2 blocks in 28.9 minutes per game last month.

Overall, Reid is averaging 13.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.9 blocks in 73 games, including eight starts.

The only other candidate who’s taking betting action is the Clippers’ Norman Powell. He’s averaging 14.0 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 70 games, while coming off the bench in all but one of those contests.

The Bucks’ Bobby Portis is also posting solid numbers – 13.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 74 games (one start).

That brings us to our topic of the day: Who is your choice for this year’s Sixth Man award – current favorite Malik Monk, Naz Reid, Norman Powell or Bobby Portis? Is there another player who’s worthy of consideration for the award?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

2024 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

March 31st, 2024 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still nearly three months away from the 2024 NBA draft, but before we get to June 26, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

April 27 (11:59 pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on April 27 to submit their names into the 2024 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they can’t hire an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

Once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players.

May 11-12: NBA G League Elite Camp

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 veteran G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half.

After being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Elite Camp returned in 2021, but only featured 40 draft-eligible prospects, without the G League players. That format carried over to 2022, with 44 prospects in attendance, and to 2023, when 50 prospects were invited. It’s safe to assume the event will focus exclusively on draft-eligible players again this season.

May 12: NBA draft lottery

The 2024 draft lottery will be the sixth one employing the format that was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

While the new system reduced the odds that the league’s very worst teams would claim the picks at the top of the draft, it has been several years since we saw any real long shots become big winners on lottery night.

One of the NBA’s worst three teams has been awarded the No. 1 spot in each of the last four lotteries, including when the Spurs won the 2023 lottery for the right to draft Victor Wembanyama.

Maybe we’re due for a surprise on lottery this May, though it’s also worth noting that this year’s draft class doesn’t feature a clear-cut top prospect like Wembanyama in 2023. Winning the 2024 lottery would still be a boon, but it won’t necessarily be a franchise-altering moment like it was in San Antonio a year ago.

May 12-19: NBA draft combine

This week-long event, which takes place annually in Chicago, allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players.

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

In past years, the draft lottery has taken place after the conclusion of the combine. Interestingly, the two events are flipped this year, which may have an impact on which teams are focusing on which lottery-caliber players in Chicago.

May 29 (11:59 pm ET): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen – and seniors who are eligible to play for more one season – who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by May 29. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine ends.

An early entrant could technically wait until after May 29 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad. College players who want to play overseas for a year or two before entering the NBA draft could take this route.

June 16 (5:00 pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether or not a college player decided to keep his name in the draft, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to June 16.

June 26 and 27: NBA draft days

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when several of the first major trades of the summer are completed and when we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

In 2024, for the first time, “draft day” actually refers to two days: Wednesday, June 26 and Thursday, June 27. The NBA and NBPA have agreed to make the draft a multi-day event, with the first round occurring on Wednesday and the second round taking place on Thursday.

The hope is that the move will benefit teams, who will get to regroup halfway through the draft to reset their boards and will have more time to consider possible trades; the NBA’s broadcast partners, who will be able to devote more attention to second-round picks that are often made when the television broadcast is in the midst of an ad break; and fans, who won’t have to stay up so late into the night to see the end of the second round.

The hours and days after the second round ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 58 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Load More Posts