Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Raptors’ Hot Start

December 12th, 2018 at 7:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Raptors have been the league’s best team during the first two months of the season.

At least in the short run, their gamble on Kawhi Leonard has paid off handsomely. They have the league’s best record and Leonard has reestablished himself as one of the game’s brightest stars. Leonard is averaging 26.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 3.0 APG and the Raptors hold a 2 1/2 game lead in the Eastern Conference standings.

Toronto has been equally as good on the road as it has been at home. The wins have come in bunches, with a pair of six-game streaks and a seven-game streak.

While the Leonard trade has worked out as well as the Raptors could have hoped, they’re far from a one-man band. Toronto has four other players averaging at least 13.0 PPG, led by the resurgent Serge Ibaka (16.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG). Kyle Lowry‘s scoring numbers are down but he leads the league in assists (9.9).

Young players are also producing at a high rate, particularly big man Pascal Siakam (14.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and backup point guard Fred VanVleet (9.2 PPG, 4.4 APG).

The Raptors had a mini-slide recently, losing three of four, but responded with a 24-point road win against the Los Angeles Clippers despite Leonard sitting out with a hip injury. In fact, they’re 6-1 in games Leonard has missed.

However, we’ve been down this road before with the Raptors. They won anywhere from 48 to 59 games during the past five seasons but only reached the Eastern Conference Finals once under former coach Dwane Casey.

LeBron James had a lot to do with that but now he’s safely tucked away in Los Angeles. However, Boston and Philadelphia possess more star power than Toronto, and that’s often made the difference in a 7-game series in which flaws can be exposed and exploited.

That brings us to our question of the day: Can the Raptors reach the NBA Finals with the roster they have now or will they need another star to pair up with Kawhi Leonard?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Pacific Division

December 12th, 2018 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

The Warriors have been one of the NBA’s least active teams in terms of in-season trades over the last several seasons, but the other four Pacific teams all look like good candidates to be active over the next couple months. The Kings may be buyers, the Suns are in the market for a point guard, and the Lakers and Clippers will seek upgrades that don’t compromise their 2019 cap space.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Pacific…

Milos Teodosic, G
Los Angeles Clippers
$6.3MM cap hit; restricted free agent in 2019

Last month, in the midst of a 14-game stretch in which he appeared in four games and played less than 24 total minutes, Teodosic expressed some frustration with how his time in the NBA is going, suggesting he’d likely return to the EuroLeague in 2019 — perhaps even before the end of the NBA season.

With Lou Williams on the shelf due to a hamstring injury, Teodosic has had the opportunity to play a bigger role over the Clippers‘ last two games, and he should continue to get regular minutes for at least a couple weeks. However, if he falls out of the rotation again before the trade deadline, Teodosic could become a trade candidate.

The Clippers have no shortage of backcourt options and teams like the Suns or Magic could really benefit from having a veteran point guard setting up their young players for easy baskets. Those clubs would also have an easier time carving out a clear-cut role for the former EuroLeague star.

Zach Randolph, C
Sacramento Kings
$11.69MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

A starter last season for the Kings, Randolph hasn’t played a single minute this season and looks like a buyout candidate. Before they consider negotiating a buyout though, the Kings figure to thoroughly explore the trade market to see if Randolph’s $11.69MM expiring contract might be a useful trade chip.

Combined with Sacramento’s $11MM in cap room, Randolph’s expiring deal could give the club some intriguing options on the trade market. For instance, since the Kings reportedly have interest in Otto Porter, let’s say the Wizards make Porter available for cap relief and draft picks.

Sacramento could attach a future pick to Randolph ($11.69MM) and Ben McLemore ($5.46MM), who is also in the final year of his contract. If both teams were over the cap, those two players wouldn’t be enough to match Porter’s $26MM+ salary, but the under-the-cap Kings aren’t subject to those salary-matching rules and could make it work. The Wizards, meanwhile, would get out of tax territory, pick up a future asset, and significantly increase their 2019 cap flexibility.

There’s no indication that that specific scenario is on the table, but it’s an example of how the Kings could leverage expiring contracts like Randolph’s and their cap room in order to make a major move.

Dragan Bender, F/C
Phoenix Suns
$4.66MM cap hit; UFA in 2019

Typically, a 4-24 team like the Suns would be able to find plenty of minutes for a big man who is just two-and-a-half years removed from being drafted fourth overall. However, Bender’s days in Phoenix appear to be nearing an end. The team declined his 2019/20 option in October and has played him in just 10 games (8.6 MPG) so far this season.

If even the Suns can’t find a role for Bender, perhaps his days in the NBA are numbered too. But the seven-footer knocked down 36.6% of his three-pointers last season and he’s still just 21 years old. If another club wants to roll the dice on Bender’s upside, it seems like Phoenix would be open to making a move.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Second-Best Team In West

December 11th, 2018 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last month, a number of teams have – if only briefly – held the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Trail Blazers have all been the top team in the West for at least a day, and the Thunder actually currently lead the conference by a mere percentage point.

Despite the fluctuating standings, there’s still little doubt that the Warriors are the clear-cut No. 1 team in the West. They’ve battled injuries, but with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green back in action, the Dubs are in the midst of a four-game winning streak and appear to be hitting their stride — and it’s just a matter of time until they’ll be able to insert another All-Star, DeMarcus Cousins, into their lineup too.

While Golden State’s hold on the top spot in the conference still seems strong, there doesn’t appear to be an obvious No. 2 team behind them. Last season, that team was the Rockets, who edged out the Warriors during the regular season and then pushed them to seven games in the Western Conference Finals. But Houston is currently the No. 14 seed in the West, with an 11-14 record.

While it’s still possible that the Rockets will turn their season around and make another deep postseason run, there appear to be stronger contenders for the title of the West’s second-best team. The five clubs mentioned above – Oklahoma City, Denver, Memphis, Portland, and the Clippers – are among those contenders.

The Thunder have the NBA’s best defensive rating and the West’s best net rating, per Basketball-Reference, despite missing Russell Westbrook for several games earlier this season. The Nuggets rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating despite a number of injury issues of their own. The Grizzlies have one of the NBA’s best defenses, while the Blazers and Clippers rank among the league’s best offenses.

Those aren’t the only candidates for the honor of being the Warriors’ most dangerous challenger. LeBron James and the Lakers have recovered from a slow start and are just 1.5 games back of Golden State. The Jazz, who many experts viewed as a probable top-four seed entering the season, have struggled so far, but have a talented roster and one of the most favorable second-half schedules in the NBA.

What do you think? Assuming the Warriors are still the No. 1 team in the Western Conference, which team do you consider the second-best in the West? Place your vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to make the case for your choice!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/1/18 – 12/8/18

December 8th, 2018 at 1:15pm CST by clarkcrum

Our writing team here at Hoops Rumors continually creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

It’s that time for another rendition of our Free Agent Power Rankings. Find version 2.0 here.
In his Weekly Mailbag, Arthur Hill answered readers’ questions regarding the likelihood of a star being traded this season, whether the Spurs should trade for help, and the impact DeMarcus Cousins will have on the Warriors upon his return from injury.
We reminded our audience that as of December 1, the NBA’s waiver priority order is determined by teams’ records during the 2018/19 season.
In this week’s Polls, we asked:
- Will the Raptors make the NBA Finals?
- Will the Pelicans make the playoffs in the deep Western Conference?
In our Community Shootaround posts, we asked:
- Will there be a third head coach fired during the 2018/19 season after Tyronn Lue and Fred Hoiberg?
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo remain the MVP frontrunner throughout the season?
- Do you agree with the sentiments of Kevin Durant that LeBron James’ imposing presence will scare away top-level free agents?
Our Trade Candidate Watch series focused on the Northwest and Southwest Divisions.
Chris Crouse takes a look at the NBA fantasy landscape by focusing on the Nets and the disappointing play of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
As we do every year, we introduced our 2018/19 Reverse Standings.
Our Free Agent Stock Watch series highlighted the Pacific Division.
Luke Adams took a deep dive into the financial ramifications of yesterday’s Bucks/Cavaliers/Wizards trade.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Financial Impact Of Bucks/Cavs/Wizards Trade

December 8th, 2018 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

While the three-team trade finalized by the Cavaliers, Bucks, and Wizards on Friday won’t have the same on-court impact as the blockbuster the Raptors and Spurs completed in the offseason, or the Sixers’ acquisition of Jimmy Butler last month, it’s a complicated transaction with many moving parts. So, as we did with those previous deals, we want to take a deep dive into all the financial and cap considerations going on for the three clubs involved in the swap.

Let’s dive right in…

How salary-matching works in the trade:

George Hill‘s $19,000,000 cap hit is the largest single salary involved in the trade. It would have allowed the Cavaliers to take back up to $24MM by itself (the outgoing salary, plus $5MM), so using it to absorb John Henson ($11,327,466) and Matthew Dellavedova ($9,607,500) together is no problem. That means the Cavs are essentially trading Sam Dekker for “nothing” and can create a traded player exception worth his salary ($2,760,095).

From the Bucks‘ perspective, neither of their outgoing players are earning enough to match Hill’s $19MM salary on their own, so Henson and Dellavedova need to be aggregated. Together, they earn $20,934,966, which allows the Bucks take back up to $26,268,708 (125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100K). That’s enough to absorb both Hill ($19,000,000) and Jason Smith ($5,450,000).

As an aside, it’s worth noting that the rules for the amount the Cavs can take back using Hill’s $19MM vs. the amount the Bucks can take back using Henson’s and Dellavedova’s $20.93MM are different because the rules change once the salaries cross the $19,600,000 threshold. We explain that in more depth in our glossary entry on the traded player exception.

Finally, the Wizards can use the $3,454,500 traded player exception they created in October’s Jodie Meeks trade on Dekker, whose $2,760,095 salary fits nicely and leaves just $694,405 on that TPE. As a result, Washington essentially trades Smith’s $5,450,000 salary for “nothing,” creating a new trade exception worth that amount.

Teams have one year to use their traded player exceptions, but the Cavs and Wizards will actually get a couple extra days to use theirs. Trade exceptions can’t expire on a weekend, so the expiry date for the new TPEs created by Cleveland and Washington will be December 9, 2019, since December 7 falls on a Saturday next year.

How the Ted Stepien rule affects this trade:

The Ted Stepien rule, which we explain in more detail in a glossary entry, prohibits teams from completing trades that would leave them without a first-round pick for two consecutive future seasons.

That’s an issue for the Bucks — they currently owe the Suns their 2019 first-round pick, but the pick is unlikely to actually change hands in 2019 because of the protections on it (top-3 and 17-30). Phoenix would only get the selection if it falls between 4-16, which almost certainly won’t happen, given the Bucks’ success so far.

Assuming the Bucks keep it in 2019, the pick would roll over to 2020, at which point it will only be top-7 protected, making it far more likely to change hands.

The Bucks sent their 2021 first-round pick to Cleveland in Friday’s trade, but the Stepien rule prevents a scenario in which they’ve committed both their 2020 and 2021 first-rounders to other teams, unless they acquire another pick in one of those years. As such, the Cavaliers likely won’t get their hands on Milwaukee’s pick until 2022 at the earliest. According to protections reported by Zach Lowe of ESPN (Twitter link), it will be top-10 protected in that year.

The other draft picks in the trade:

Besides the Bucks first-rounder headed to Cleveland, there are four other draft picks involved in this deal. Two of them are simple:

The Cavaliers receive Milwaukee’s 2021 second-round pick from the Bucks (no protections reported).
The Cavaliers receive Washington’s 2022 second-round pick from the Wizards (no protections reported).

The other two are a little more complicated:

The Bucks receive Washington’s 2021 second-round pick from the Cavaliers (no protections reported)
- Despite this pick originally belonging to the Wizards, it’s the Cavs who are sending it to the Bucks in this trade. That’s because Washington traded it to Utah way back in 2016 for Trey Burke. The Jazz subsequently sent it to Cleveland in last month’s Kyle Korver trade. Now it belongs to Milwaukee.
The Bucks had the protections removed on the Wizards‘ 2020 second-round pick they already owned.
- When the Bucks acquired Meeks from Washington in October, they received the Wizards’ 2020 pick, protected from 46-60. If it fell in that range, the Bucks would have instead received Washington’s unprotected 2022 second-round pick. As we noted above though, the Cavaliers are now getting that 2022 second-rounder as part of this trade, so the Bucks and Wizards agreed to eliminate the protections on the 2020 second-rounder to free up the 2022 selection.

The 2019 cap outlook for the Bucks:

Prior to Friday’s trade, the Bucks had just over $81MM in guaranteed money committed to eight players for the 2019/20 season. That doesn’t sound too bad, considering the cap is projected to be $109MM. However, it sounds a lot worse once you consider that the $81MM figure doesn’t include Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, or Brook Lopez, all of whom will be free agents next summer.

Milwaukee will have Bird rights for Middleton, Bledsoe, and Brogdon, and wouldn’t face any restrictions on re-signing any of those players besides their willingness to spend. But they won’t come cheap. Re-signing Middleton on his own would almost certainly eliminate the rest of the Bucks’ cap room, and Bledsoe and Brogdon will be seeking lucrative multiyear deals too. Lopez, meanwhile, would’ve been nearly impossible to re-sign, since the Bucks would only have his Non-Bird rights and no cap space to use on his probable raise.

By trading Henson and Dellavedova for Hill and Smith, the Bucks reduce their guaranteed 2019/20 commitments by more than $19MM — both Henson and Dellavedova had guaranteed salaries, while Hill only has a $1MM partial guarantee on his $18MM salary and Smith is on an expiring contract. In total, Milwaukee’s guaranteed money for next season is now down to about $62MM, creating a much more viable path to re-signing the players they want to — or even creating significant cap room if they can’t bring them all back.

The Bucks aren’t a big-market team and probably aren’t the kind of franchise that wants to find itself in luxury-tax territory. At the same time, they want to show Giannis Antetokounmpo they’re serious about winning, and letting key contributors walk because they couldn’t afford to pay them would have been a major red flag on that front. A future protected first-round pick is a very reasonable price to pay in order to create the added flexibility necessary to avoid that scenario.

The luxury tax ramifications for the Wizards:

The Wizards seemingly jumped into this deal late, as the first wave of reports suggested it was an agreement between the Cavs and Bucks. Washington’s involvement essentially amounted to giving up an extra second-round pick and cash in order to swap Smith for Dekker.

While Dekker is probably a better bet than Smith to contribute meaningful minutes for the 2018/19 Wizards, the deal appears to be primarily financially motivated for Washington.

Before making the trade, the club had a team salary of $132,718,042, with a projected tax bill of $14,473,824, per Basketball Insiders’ data. After the trade, those figures have dropped to $130,028,137 and $9,766,490 respectively. In total, the Wizards will save about $6.59MM based on their tax projections and the prorated salaries still owed to Smith and Dekker.

We still don’t know exactly how much cash sent the Bucks as part of the trade, but let’s say it’s enough to cover the difference in Smith’s and Dekker’s salaries the rest of the way (about $1.88MM). That would mean the Wizards are, in essence, giving up a future second-round pick in order to upgrade from Smith to Dekker and save $4.71MM. That’s not a bad deal, given the usual cost of buying a second-rounder.

The Cavaliers’ next move:

When the Cavaliers sent Korver to the Jazz last month, they received a couple draft picks and took back Alec Burks, who is on an expiring contract. Based on that trade, it wasn’t clear how willing Cleveland would be to take on future salary. This three-team deal answers that question.

By acquiring Dellavedova and Henson in exchange for Hill and Dekker, the Cavaliers are essentially acknowledging that they don’t have plans to use their 2019 cap room. After all, the team now has $107,560,532 in guaranteed money on its books for 2019/20.

That willingness to surrender 2019 flexibility and look toward 2020 should serve the Cavs well as they explore the market for J.R. Smith. Smith’s production has declined and his $14.72MM cap hit for 2018/19 is exorbitant. However, his $15.68MM salary for next season is only guaranteed for $3.87MM, making it a pseudo-expiring contract, which should appeal more to teams looking to create flexibility for 2019.

With the Cavs now looking ahead to potentially creating cap room in 2020, they should be open to taking on a player like, say, Solomon Hill ($12.76MM salary in 2019/20; UFA in 2020), Brandon Knight ($15.64MM salary in ’19/20; UFA in 2020), or Jon Leuer ($9.51MM salary in ’19/20; UFA in 2020) in a deal involving Smith if it allows them to maximize their return.

As long as the Cavs can keep their 2019/20 salary projections below the tax line, which shouldn’t be an issue, there’s no reason for them not to take on more unwanted salary for next season. They’d still have flexibility for the 2020 offseason, and the more bad money they’re willing to take, the better chance they’ll have to snag another first-round pick or a young prospect.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary data from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Pacific Division

December 7th, 2018 at 8:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Pacific Division:

Jonas Jerebko, Warriors, PF, 31 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.18MM deal in 2018
Jerebko has bounced around the league the last few seasons but he always stays within his role and provides solid contributions wherever he lands. He’s averaging 7.2 PPG while shooting a career-high 48.9% from the field in 19.8 MPG. He’s also helped on the boards (5.5 RPG). An above-average 3-point shooter, Jerebko shouldn’t have too much trouble finding another contender to sign him as their backup stretch four next summer. It could be Golden State if he’s willing to settle for the veteran’s minimum again.

Tobias Harris, Clippers, 26, PF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $64MM deal in 2015
When news leaked over the summer that Harris turned down an $80MM extension offer from the Clippers, many people wondered what Harris was thinking. He was willing to bet on himself that he could do even better as an unrestricted free agent and thus far, the odds have increased in his favor. Harris is posting career highs in several major categories, including scoring (21.0 PPG), shooting (50.8%) and rebounding (8.5 RPG) for one of the league’s surprise teams. When the superstars come off the board, Harris will be next in line for a big payday.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Lakers, 25, SG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $12MM deal in 2018
The previous Pistons regime declined to give Caldwell-Pope a multi-year extension. He wound up signing a pair of generous one-year contracts with the Lakers but he’s been reduced to backup duty. Most of the shots he’s taken have come from beyond the arc and he’s not particularly good at it (33% this season, 34.4% for his career). Caldwell-Pope doesn’t appear to have a future with the Lakers beyond this season and will have to take a pay cut to find work elsewhere.

Dragan Bender, Suns, 21, PF (Down) — Signed to a three-year, $13.4MM deal in 2016
When the Suns drafted Bender No. 4 overall in 2016, then traded with Sacramento for No. 8 selection Marquese Chriss, they seemingly resolved their power forward spot for years to come. Instead, they wound up with two of the biggest busts in that draft. Chriss was traded away to Houston during training camp while Bender is barely seeing the court in Phoenix. He’s appeared in eight games while averaging just 5.5 MPG. Bender needs a change of scenery but he’ll have to settle for a modest deal next year until he proves he’s a genuine NBA player.

Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings, 25, PF (Up)– Signed to a four-year, $15.35MM deal in 2015
The Kings have a lot of young bigs but Cauley-Stein has been a fixture in the lineup. He’s posting career highs at 14.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG while generally playing the same amount of minutes as last season. Cauley-Stein came into the league with a reputation of being a quality defender and he’s posted positive Defensive Box Plus/Minus ratings each season, according to Basketball-Reference. He’ll be a restricted free agent but might be one of the few who gets a substantial offer sheet, considering Sacramento will like choose to make Marvin Bagley III their main man in the middle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Free Agents Joining James

December 7th, 2018 at 6:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Will The King scare away other All-Stars?

Kevin Durant seemed to suggest that during a recent Bleacher Report interview. It’s been generally assumed the Lakers will sign at least one big-time free agent next summer to join forces with James.

Judging by his comments, Durant won’t be going to Los Angeles. And he’s skeptical that Kawhi Leonard, who has stated his preference for playing in the city, will want to be James’ sidekick.

“If you’re a younger player like a Kawhi, trying to pair him with LeBron James doesn’t really make sense,” Durant said. “Kawhi enjoys having the ball in his hands, controlling the offense, dictating the tempo with his post-ups; it’s how he plays the game.”

Durant’s teammate Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler and Kemba Walker are some of the other prominent players headed to free agency. Durant doubts they’ll want to deal with the extra attention and pressure that comes with playing alongside James. Kyrie Irving, another big-name free agent after the season, was eager to get away from it in Cleveland.

Another issue is that James tends to get most or all of the credit when his teams win, while the supporting cast usually gets blamed when they lose.

“He has so many fanboys in the media. Even the beat writers just fawn over him,” Durant said. “So I get why anyone wouldn’t want to be in that environment because it’s toxic.”

That brings us to our question of the day: Do you think LeBron James’ imposing presence will scare away top-level free agents or will they be eager to join forces with him?

Please take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to what you have to say.

2019 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings 2.0

December 7th, 2018 at 2:20pm CST by Luke Adams

When we published the first installment of our 2019 NBA free agent power rankings back in September, there were a few more big names on track for the open market next summer. However, Karl-Anthony Towns – who placed No. 2 on that list – signed a rookie scale extension with the Timberwolves and Myles Turner did the same with the Pacers.

With those top restricted free agents off the board, there are still a handful of 2019 RFAs-to-be who show up in our top 20, but the very top of our list consists almost exclusively of players who will be unrestricted free agents.

That should make 2019’s free agent period particularly interesting. After all, even if Towns hadn’t signed an early extension with Minnesota and was still on our list, there would be little drama surrounding his free agency — the Wolves had the ability to match any offer and would have done so, if necessary.

That’s not the case for unrestricted free agents though. This year’s top FAs, including Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, and Kawhi Leonard, could secure slightly longer and more lucrative contracts if they stay with their current teams, but otherwise there’s nothing stopping them from jumping ship. And there are no guarantees they won’t do so, which could make 2019 one of the most exciting NBA offseasons in recent years.

With all that in mind, our updated list of the top potential free agents for 2019 is below. Extensions, injuries, breakout years, trades, and poor performances figure to affect these rankings over the course of the 2018/19 campaign, so we’ll be revisiting the list again before the end of the season to make updates and changes.

Our list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2019 free agent market, rather than how we think they’ll perform on the court for the 2018/19 season. For instance, older players like J.J. Redick and Brook Lopez have solid short-term value, but didn’t crack our top 20 because they’re unlikely to sign huge, long-term deals next summer. In other words, age and long-term value is important.

Here’s the second installment of our 2019 NBA free agent power rankings:

Kevin Durant, F, Warriors (player option)
Kawhi Leonard, F, Raptors (player option)

While Durant is probably 2019’s clear-cut top free agent, he and Leonard belong in a tier of their own as the only players who are mortal locks to get long-term, maximum-salary contracts if they stay healthy the rest of the way. They’re two-way monsters who are among the NBA’s top five players when they’re at their best. Durant is three years older than Leonard, but that won’t prevent him from securing a huge payday next summer.

Jimmy Butler, G/F, Sixers (player option)
Kyrie Irving, G, Celtics (player option)

If Durant and Leonard are Tier 1 free agents, Butler and Irving are in Tier 1A. They’ll surely get maximum-salary offers, but there’s uncertainty about whether they’ll get five full years at the max.

While Butler is an elite two-way player, interested teams may have concerns about his stints in Chicago and Minnesota ended. As for Irving, he has battled multiple injuries in recent years and isn’t nearly as strong a defender as the three players ahead of him on this list, though the 26-year-old’s offensive play-making and shot-making make him one of the league’s best players.

Khris Middleton, G/F, Bucks (player option)
Klay Thompson, G, Warriors

It’s possible I’m weighing this year’s performance too heavily here, but the truth is there may not be much difference between Middleton and Thompson in terms of their market value. Both players are excellent three-and-D wings who can knock down outside shots in bunches and handle tough assignments on the defensive end.

Middleton is a year and a half younger than Thompson and is more of a play-maker than Klay (4.0 APG vs. Thompson’s 1.8). He’s also knocking down 41.9% of his three-point attempts this year, while Thompson is making a career-worst 35.0%. Thompson may very well surpass Middleton on this list by season’s end, but for now I want to reward the Bucks swingman for his terrific start.

Tobias Harris, F, Clippers
Kemba Walker, G, Hornets

It seems unfair to rank Walker this low, given how good he has been for Charlotte this season. But his shooting numbers (.440 FG% and .358 3PT%) aren’t elite and he’ll be 29 when he reaches free agency. His position and size also make him less versatile than Harris, the 26-year-old forward who has posted a red-hot .508/.416/.852 shooting line this season as the scoring leader for one of the NBA’s best teams. Both of these guys will get paid big money, and would be among the top five free agents available in many other years.

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Knicks (RFA)
Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic

It’s hard to judge the relative value of these two players. One is a 23-year-old unicorn who was a lock for a five-year max before suffering an ACL tear. The other is a veteran who has taken a massive leap so far this season and is putting up career-best numbers virtually across the board. I’m giving Porzingis the edge because I think teams would still be more willing to heavily invest in him long-term, given his age and potential.

It will be interesting to see how motivated the Knicks are to get Porzingis back on the court this season — if he returns and looks great, he might inadvertently sabotage the Knicks’ tanking efforts while increasing his appeal to rival suitors.

Nikola Mirotic, F, Pelicans
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Warriors

Between these two bigs, I’m giving Mirotic the edge over Cousins, since an Achilles injury is one of the most difficult ailments for an NBA player – particularly a center – to come back from. It’s certainly possible that Cousins could move into the top 10 by season’s end. For now though, he’s still rehabbing that Achilles injury in an effort to get back on the court, while Mirotic is posting career-best numbers (18.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG, .465 FG%) as the stretch four in New Orleans.

Harrison Barnes, F, Mavericks (player option)
Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies (player option)
Al Horford, C, Celtics (player option)

I’ve grouped these three players together because they all fall into a similar boat, as their massive player options for 2019/20 may dissuade them from actually opting out and becoming free agents. While they could do very well for themselves on the open market, they might not be able to exceed the amount of those option salaries on new deals. Barnes’ and Gasol’s options are both worth $25MM+, while Horford’s is worth $30MM+.

As for their rankings, Barnes gets the edge due to his age and his versatility. Gasol is having the best season of the three, but will turn 34 in January, limiting his ability to get a long-term contract. Horford is in a similar position, as he’ll be 33 by next July.

Eric Bledsoe, G, Bucks
D’Angelo Russell, G, Nets (RFA)
Terry Rozier, G, Celtics (RFA)

Of these three point guards, Bledsoe is having the best season so far, running the point for one of the NBA’s top teams and scoring more efficiently than ever (.519 FG%). He’s also a strong defender and will still be on the right side of 30 when he reaches the open market.

Rozier and Russell are trickier players to assess. Rozier has taken a step backward in 2018/19 after proving his worth down the stretch last season. Russell is having his best season, but still hasn’t made huge strides toward stardom, and continues to face questions about his defense. Given the nature of restricted free agency, I think they’ll both do very well on their next contracts.

Julius Randle, F/C, Pelicans (player option)
DeAndre Jordan, C, Mavericks

Randle gets the nod over Jordan here due to his youth and the fact that he still has room to improve. Still, despite his abilities as an inside scorer and rebounder, Randle won’t become a truly elite free agent unless he develops more as an outside shooter or rim protector.

While Jordan’s rim protection was once his calling card, he’s blocking just 1.1 shots per 36 minutes over the last two seasons after averaging 2.3 up until that point. As he enters his 30s, he’s no longer the defensive anchor or Defensive Player of the Year candidate he used to be, though he’s still a solid interior defender. His improvements at the free-throw line also increase his value — he’s making foul shots at a 75.8% rate this year after flirting with 50% for most of the rest of his career.

Also receiving strong consideration (in alphabetical order):

Trevor Ariza, F, Suns
Malcolm Brogdon, G, Bucks (RFA)
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kings (RFA)
Spencer Dinwiddie, G, Nets
Goran Dragic, G, Heat (player option)
Danny Green, G, Raptors
Enes Kanter, C, Knicks
Brook Lopez, C, Bucks
J.J. Redick, G, Sixers
Derrick Rose, G, Timberwolves
Ricky Rubio, G, Jazz

Disagree strongly with any of our rankings? Feel like we omitted any players that should be in the top 20? Weigh in below in the comment section to let us know!

And for more names, be sure to check out our full 2019 free agents lists, sorted by position/type or by team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors’ 2018/19 NBA Reverse Standings

December 7th, 2018 at 8:50am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2018/19 NBA season, Hoops Rumors will be maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2019 draft order will look like. Our 2018/19 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, will be updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2019’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s updated lottery format.

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year. Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than playoff teams. Our reverse standings account for that.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Cleveland’s pick says that the Cavaliers will send their pick to the Hawks if it’s not in the top 10. As of today, Cleveland has the NBA’s fourth-worst record, meaning that pick wouldn’t change hands.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2019. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

December 6th, 2018 at 2:35pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s Southwest division continues to defy expectations as the 2018/19 season nears its one-third mark. Dallas and Memphis were expected to sit at the bottom of the Southwest this year, but the Mavericks currently have a better record than their fellow Texas teams in San Antonio and Houston, while the Grizzlies are in first place in their division. The unpredictability has resulted in some unexpected trade candidates.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Southwest…

Carmelo Anthony, F
Houston Rockets
$1.51MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

It has been three weeks since the Rockets confirmed they’d be parting ways with Anthony, but the veteran forward remains in limbo. It’s possible that Houston is putting off releasing Anthony because there’s concern he’ll be claimed off waivers by a team he doesn’t want to join — or perhaps the Rockets, who already have one open roster spot, don’t want to have to replace him on their roster, which would increase their projected tax bill.

However, it also seems likely that the Rockets are waiting until December 15 before making any final decisions on Anthony. That’s the date he’ll become eligible to be traded.

It’s not clear whether there are teams in there with immediate interest in acquiring Anthony, but if there are, a trade should be simple enough — because he’s on a minimum-salary contract, the 34-year-old can be acquired using the minimum salary exception, negating the need for salary-matching, and Houston certainly won’t be asking for anything of value in return.

If there has been no resolution on Anthony by December 15, that resolution should come shortly thereafter, as the Rockets assess whether there’s a deal to be made for the 10-time All-Star.

Pau Gasol, C
San Antonio Spurs
$16.8MM cap hit; $16MM salary for 2019/20 partially guaranteed ($6.7MM)

The Spurs are only two games out of a playoff spot in the West, but their 11-14 record places them 14th in the conference. They’ve dropped 12 of their last 17 games, including three recent losses by 30 or more points. If this slump continues, there’s a real possibility that selling will make more sense than buying at the trade deadline.

In that scenario, Gasol could become a trade chip. Typically, a 38-year-old who is earning $16.8MM and recovering from a stress fracture is an albatross, but if Pau gets healthy, he should have some appeal in the right situation.

Gasol’s partial guarantee for next season makes his contract a bit more manageable, and he’s the sort of veteran who could fit into just about any situation, playing 15 minutes or so off the bench. Again though, he has to get back to 100% first before he’ll have any value, and at his age, that’s not necessarily a given.

Dennis Smith Jr., G
Dallas Mavericks
$3.82MM cap hit; on rookie contract; eligible for restricted free agency in 2021

There have been no reports this season suggesting that the Mavericks are mulling the possibility of trading Smith, but Luka Doncic‘s emergence has increased the pressure on Dallas’ 2017 lottery pick. While it may be too early to dub Doncic the Mavs’ next franchise player, the early returns on this year’s No. 3 selection suggest that he should be the team’s primary play-maker for years to come.

If that’s the case, the Mavericks will need to determine whether Smith makes sense alongside Doncic for the long term. If management believes the two youngsters can coexist and thrive together, there’s no reason to do anything with DSJ except look ahead to his next contract. If there are doubts about the pairing, the Mavs should start thinking about a potential deal.

After all, outside of perhaps Wesley Matthews‘ expiring contract and one or two others, the Mavericks don’t have a ton of attractive trade chips. Smith would be a big one, and if moving him allows the franchise to acquire another long-term piece that fits better alongside Doncic, it’s worth considering.

While I don’t expect Smith to go anywhere this season, we’ll be monitoring this situation going forward.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts