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Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/17/18 – 11/24/18

November 24th, 2018 at 2:07pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, our writing team here at Hoops Rumors creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

November 23rd, 2018 at 8:22pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Isaiah Thomas, Nuggets, 29, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2018
Thomas hoped to revive his career as a high-scoring sixth man for one of the league’s up-and-coming teams. Instead, Thomas has yet to make his Denver debut. Thomas continues to struggle with hip issues and there’s no timetable for his return. Just a couple of years removed from being a candidate for the league’s Most Valuable Player award, Thomas has a cloudy future. It’s more likely he’ll be forced into early retirement than ever approaching his former level of excellence and that would be a shame.

Derrick Rose, Timberwolves, 30, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.39MM deal in 2018
Seriously, did anyone think Rose would have another 25-point outing in his career, let alone twice as many points? Rose’s 50-point explosion against Utah on Halloween was a shocker and he’s remained a steady offensive threat since that blast from the past. He’s averaging 22.0 PPG and 4.0 APG over his last eight games. Once thought to be on the verge of retirement, Rose clearly still has a lot left in the tank. He’ll be getting a substantial raise in the open market if he keeps this up.

Abdel Nader, Thunder, 25, SF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4.16MM deal in 2017
The Celtics were about to cut Nader loose this summer until the Thunder came calling with a trade offer. The 2016 second-round pick has a non-guaranteed contract and he hasn’t done anything to convince Oklahoma City to keep him around after this season. Nader hasn’t been able to break into the wing rotation, playing a total of just 15 minutes. Nader will probably be looking for another fresh start in July.

Seth Curry, Trail Blazers, 28, PG (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $2.795MM deal in 2018
Curry left Dallas with the hope of reestablishing his value after missing all of last season with stress fracture in his lower left leg. It hasn’t started off the way Curry envisioned. He wasn’t effective in a backup role (6.09 PER) before missing the last four games with a knee injury. There’s still hope for Curry to turn things around and fill the role that Shabazz Napier played last season. The way it’s going now, he’ll be scrounging for another one-year deal next summer.

Ricky Rubio, Jazz, 28, PG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $55MM deal in 2015
The Jazz have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams during the first quarter of the season. The team’s starting point guard is partly to blame. Rubio, who is making nearly $15MM in his walk year, is shooting 37.3% from the field and over the last six games he’s averaging four assists while making 2.5 turnovers per game. Rubio needed to adjust his game when the team drafted dynamic creator Donovan Mitchell and right now, their backcourt pairing still seems a bit awkward. It’ll interesting to see if the Jazz look to move Rubio before the trade deadline to shake things up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Will The Clippers Make The Playoffs?

November 23rd, 2018 at 3:55pm CST by Luke Adams

If the 2018/19 NBA season ended today, six of the eight postseason teams in the West would be clubs widely expected to finish in the top eight in the conference coming into the year — the Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggets, Thunder, and Trail Blazers. However, the other two teams in the playoff picture in the Western Conference are a little more surprising.

On Thursday, we asked for your thoughts on one those two teams – the Grizzlies – and today we’re shifting our focus to the other one: the Clippers.

With the regular season nearly at its one-quarter mark, the Clippers are currently tied with the Thunder at 11-6 for third in the West. Viewed as a borderline playoff contender entering the season, the Clips have had success so far despite not having a bona fide star on their roster.

Tobias Harris is the closest thing Los Angeles has to an All-Star, and he’s off to a great start in 2018/19, averaging 21.4 PPG and 8.7 RPG with a scorching-hot .519/.444/.810 shooting line. Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams have chipped in more than 18 points per game apiece, Montrezl Harrell (15.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is enjoying a breakout year, and lottery pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an immediate impact on both ends of the court.

While the Clippers’ playing style is epitomized by hard-nosed defenders like Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley, the team also has a top-five offensive rating. The Clippers don’t shoot a ton of threes, ranking 28th in attempts, but they have the second-best three-point percentage in the NBA, and have a knack for getting to the foul line — they rank second in the league in both free throws made and free-throw percentage.

Staying healthy will be a concern for Gallinari, who hasn’t played more than 63 games in a season since 2012/13, but this Clippers roster is deep and could withstand the loss of a rotation player or two. The team also has the assets and flexibility necessary to make a trade or two in the coming months.

Still, with star-heavy clubs like the Pelicans, Spurs, and Jazz expected to push their way into the postseason conversation at some point, the Clippers will face a season-long challenge to hang onto a playoff spot.

What do you think? Will the Clippers exceed expectations and earn a place in the postseason, or will they eventually fall back and finish in the lottery? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Atlantic Division

November 23rd, 2018 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

Since we last examined the Atlantic division, two of the division’s backup point guards have made headlines — one is reportedly unhappy with his role, while another is said to prefer a change of scenery. Both players (or their camps) have publicly denied those reports, but that likely won’t quiet trade speculation.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Atlantic…

Terry Rozier, G
Boston Celtics
$3.05MM cap hit; restricted free agent in 2019

Rozier and the Celtics continue to say the right things publicly, but speculation persists that the fourth-year point guard is unhappy with his role in Boston, as a report suggested earlier this month.

Rozier, who played a huge role in the postseason for the Celtics last spring, has seen his minutes per game dip to 22.7 this season with Kyrie Irving healthy. If Boston were battling for first place in the conference, that decreased role might be easier to swallow, but the Celtics’ early-season struggles have likely only exacerbated any frustrations Rozier has.

Despite their 9-9 start, the Celtics still have title aspirations, so an in-season trade involving a key contributor like Rozier seems unlikely unless they can get immediate help in return. Still, this is a situation worth watching closely. With Rozier’s restricted free agency looming and no guarantee of a long-term investment from the Celtics, the trade deadline could represent Boston’s best chance to get something of value for the young guard.

Markelle Fultz, G
Philadelphia 76ers
$8.34MM cap hit; guaranteed $9.75MM salary in 2019/20; $12.29MM team option for 2020/21

Fultz’s agent Raymond Brothers denied a report suggesting that his client wants to be traded out of Philadelphia, but it wouldn’t exactly be shocking if the former No. 1 overall pick prefers a fresh start elsewhere. His first 17 months with the Sixers have been disastrous, and it’s not clear where he fits into a long-term core that will likely include Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, and Joel Embiid.

If you’re the Sixers, you don’t want to sell low on a player like Fultz, who is still just 20 years old and was an extremely highly regarded prospect just a year and a half ago. But the team applied that same thinking to Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel, and ended up practically giving those players away for nothing in trades as their stocks dipped even further. If Fultz can get healthy, maybe now is the time to move him, when other teams still believe in his upside.

If Philadelphia does consider dealing Fultz, he’d give the team a mid-level salary-matching chip to shop in trade talks, which could be important. Currently, the only non-core pieces on the roster with cap hits exceeding $2.7MM are Wilson Chandler ($12.8MM), J.J. Redick ($12.25MM), and Mike Muscala ($5MM) — those three are important rotation players that the Sixers would presumably prefer to keep.

It’s also worth noting that clearing Fultz’s $9.75MM guarantee for 2019/20 from their books could put the Sixers in a prime position to go after another top free agent next summer, even after accounting for Butler’s cap hold.

DeMarre Carroll, F
Brooklyn Nets
$15.4MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

During the summer of 2017, when the Raptors needed to cut costs to re-sign Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the Nets received a pair of draft picks from Toronto and dumped Justin Hamilton‘s unwanted expiring contract as incentive for taking on Carroll. The veteran forward responded with a nice bounce-back season in 2017/18, averaging a career-best 13.5 PPG on .414/.371/.764 shooting.

Carroll’s solid showing last season rebuilt his trade value and even made him a positive asset heading into his contract year, but health problems – which marred his time in Toronto – have slowed him again this season. Limited to eight games so far due to an ankle injury, the 32-year-old has shot just .309/.286/.885.

Unless Carroll can rebound again in a big way, finding a trade partner may be tricky. The Nets would want an asset in return for the veteran, and wouldn’t want to compromise their projected cap space for 2019. That may be too much to ask, but if Carroll plays well leading up to the deadline and there’s a team out there in desperate need of a three-and-D wing, a deal is a possibility.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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How New Lottery Odds Will Affect NBA’s Race To The Bottom

November 23rd, 2018 at 12:10pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2018/19 NBA season is the first league year that will use the Association’s new odds for the draft lottery. Up until 2018, the top three spots in the draft were determined by the lottery, with the NBA’s worst team receiving a 25% shot at the No. 1 pick and a 64.3% chance of a top-three pick.

That will no longer be the case in 2019, as the league has tweaked its lottery system to distribute the odds of a top pick a little more evenly throughout the NBA’s bottom 14 teams.

The top four spots in the draft will now be set by the lottery, which means the worst team could pick as low as No. 5. Additionally, that team now only has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall selection, and a 40.1% chance at a top-three pick.

Here’s a full breakdown of how the lottery odds have changed. The new odds are indicated first, followed by the previous odds in parentheses.

Team No. 1 pick (%)
 Top-3 pick (%)
Team 1 14.0 (25.0) 40.1 (64.3)
Team 2 14.0 (19.9) 40.1 (55.8)
Team 3 14.0 (15.6) 40.1 (46.9)
Team 4 12.5 (11.9) 36.6 (37.8)
Team 5 10.5 (8.8) 31.6 (29.2)
Team 6 9.0 (6.3) 27.6 (21.5)
Team 7 7.5 (4.3) 23.4 (15.0)
Team 8 6.0 (2.8) 19.0 (10.0)
Team 9 4.5 (1.7) 14.5 (6.1)
Team 10 3.0 (1.1) 9.9 (4.0)
Team 11 2.0 (0.8) 6.6 (2.9)
Team 12 1.5 (0.7) 5.1 (2.5)
Team 13 1.0 (0.6) 3.3 (2.0)
Team 14 0.5 (0.5) 1.7 (1.8)

The new system doesn’t represent a total overhaul of the draft lottery, but the changes should still have a major impact on the lottery results going forward. The league’s three worst teams will all have equal odds at the No. 1 pick and a top-three pick, reducing the incentive to finish at the very bottom of the NBA standings.

The likelihood of a team in the 6-14 range jumping up to snag the top pick has been increased significantly as well. There’s now a 35% chance that one of those clubs will pick first overall — under the previous system, those odds were just 18.8%.

So what will the practical effects of these changes look like? Well, for one, we shouldn’t be quite as invested in the very bottom of the NBA standings. For instance, if the Suns, Cavaliers, and Hawks end up in a three-team race for the league’s worst record, it doesn’t really matter which team is the worst of the worst — they’d all end up with the exact same lottery odds.

Meanwhile, teams with picks in the middle of the lottery will have a better chance to make a leap in the draft order. For example, Sixers and Celtics fans may be discouraged by the Kings‘ hot start, since Sacramento’s pick will go to Philadelphia (if it’s No. 1) or Boston (if it’s No. 2 or lower). However, the revamped lottery odds could make that pick a little more interesting even if the Kings keep playing well.

Let’s say the Kings finish eighth in the lottery order. In past seasons, that pick would have had a 2.8% chance of landing at No. 1 and a 10% chance of jumping into the top three. This year, the odds of becoming the first overall selection would increase to 6%. It would also have a 19% chance of being a top-three pick, and a 26.2% of landing in the top four. It’s still a long shot to improve, but those odds aren’t nearly as long.

We’ll have to wait until later in the season to get a better sense of how the new lottery odds may impact situational tanking around the league. Whatever happens though, it looks like lottery night should be more interesting than ever going forward, with one extra top pick up for grabs and a shake-up in the draft order more likely than ever.

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Poll: Will The Grizzlies Make The Playoffs?

November 22nd, 2018 at 9:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Expectations weren’t high for the Grizzlies coming into the 2018/19 season. Oddsmakers placed Memphis’ over/under at 34.5 wins, which would have put the team in a tie with Dallas for the 12th-best record in the Western Conference. And it’s not as if fans and experts widely viewed that projection as pessimistic. In fact, in our preseason over/under polls, more than 60% of our respondents for the Grizzlies picked them to finish under 34.5 wins.

A little over a month later, as the regular season nears the one-quarter mark, the Grizzlies aren’t just exceeding expectations — they are, improbably, the No. 1 team in the Western Conference. Of course, the top 10 teams in the West are separated by just 2.5 games, so it’s not as if Memphis is running away with the conference, but the team’s 12-5 mark is good for first place for now.

While it remains to be seen if the Grizzlies’ early-season success is sustainable, it’s not as if a bunch of guys on the roster are playing over their heads. Offseason additions Jaren Jackson Jr. and Shelvin Mack have been better than expected so far, and the fact that Mike Conley and Marc Gasol have stayed healthy is a big help. But the Grizzlies’ major free agent signee, Kyle Anderson, hasn’t made a huge impact, and their third highest-paid player, Chandler Parsons, has once again been sidelined by health problems.

Memphis’ management talked in the offseason about wanting to return to a grit-and-grind style of play, which seemed like an unusual approach to take in a league that has become increasingly fast-paced and offense-oriented. However, it’s a path that’s worked for the Grizzlies so far.

Despite playing at the slowest pace in the NBA and ranking 26th in three-point attempts, Memphis is winning because of its defense and its ability to take care of the ball on the offense — the club ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, fifth in takeaways, and fourth in turnovers.

The Grizzlies couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season, but it comes with no guarantees. They still have 65 games left to play, and as we noted above, the top 10 teams in the West are separated by just 2.5 games. That group of 10 teams doesn’t even include the 8-9 Spurs or the 8-10 Jazz, who are out of the playoff picture at the moment, but figure to make a push at some point.

What are your expectations for Memphis this season? Will the Grizzlies’ hot start help propel them to a playoff berth at season’s end, or will they eventually drop off and finish outside the top eight in the Western Conference?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2018/19 NBA Trade Candidate Series

November 22nd, 2018 at 6:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

So far, we’ve worked our way through each of the six NBA divisions — our second time through the league is now in progress. This season’s trade deadline falls on February 7, so we should have plenty of time to revisit all six divisions at least a couple more times before the deadline passes and teams become ineligible to make in-season deals.

Each installment in our trade candidate series for the 2018/19 season is linked below, along with a description of which players we discuss in each piece. We’ll continue to update this page – which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” sidebar of our desktop page, or in the “Features” section of our mobile site – as we add new entries over the coming weeks and months.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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Community Shootaround: What’s Next For J.R. Smith?

November 21st, 2018 at 9:50pm CST by Arthur Hill

Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith joined former teammate Carmelo Anthony in NBA purgatory this week — technically still with a team, but not playing again until his next move can be worked out.

The Cavs confirmed yesterday that Smith will no longer have an active role with the organization as they work with his representatives to find a mutually acceptable outcome. However, the 33-year-old and his $14.72MM salary remain on the roster. Smith has asked twice for a trade, but has resisted a buyout that would require him to give back any of this year’s money.

Smith has been an important part of Cleveland’s success over the past four years, but he became obsolete when LeBron James announced that he was leaving for the Lakers. The Cavaliers are transitioning into a youth movement, leaving Smith with a much smaller role.

Management decided fewer minutes would be allotted to Smith and other veterans, although coaches Tyronn Lue and Larry Drew both ignored that edict for a while in pursuit of more wins. Smith wound up averaging 20.2 minutes in 11 games while contributing just 6.7 PPG and shooting .342 from the field.

Smith may have also contributed to his own departure with a pattern of controversial behavior over the years. Two that stood out from last season were a soup-throwing incident that resulted in a one-game suspension and his infamous decision to run out the clock at the end of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, believing the Cavaliers were leading when the score was actually tied.

Although Smith’s salary may scare some teams away from making a deal, he is owed very little money beyond this season. His $15.68MM figure for 2019/20 carries just a $3.87MM guarantee until the end of June, so any team that acquires him wouldn’t be making a long-term commitment.

We want to get your opinion on Smith’s future. He admits that he has a checkered past, but he also hit a lot of clutch shots for the Cavs on their way to four straight Eastern Conference titles and one NBA championship. Do you believe anyone will trade for him or will he have to accept a buyout to get out of Cleveland? Please leave your responses in the space below.

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Fantasy Hoops: Westbrook’s Decline? Trade Your Wizards?

November 21st, 2018 at 2:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Thunder are playing a different type of game than they have in the past and that involves lessening the load on Russell Westbrook, as ESPN’s Royce Young details. Westbrook is averaging 12 fewer touches per game this season than did last year and his individual time of possession has dropped from 9.1 seconds per game in 2017/18 to 7.0 so far this season.

Should you be worried about him from a fantasy standpoint? Not as much as you might think.

Westbrook is still seeing a major role in the offense. He returned to the court against the Kings on Monday after a six-game absence and was again first on the team in usage. The assist and rebound numbers are down, though both averages are still near nine per game. He’s averaging over 20 shots per game and making 48.8% of them on the season (while only an eight-game sample size, it represents a career-high).

“We’ve just got more creators,” Paul George said about the difference between this season and last. “It takes pressure off all of us when you’ve got guys that can make plays at different positions. Then when I have two point guards out there that can make plays, the game is so much easier for me.”

The Thunder are remaining competitive with Westbrook off the floor, and when he plays, he’s getting better looks as the offense is slightly less reliant on him. In roto leagues, he still hovers around top-10 value, as he does in point leagues.

Here’s more from around the NBA:

  • While it may be difficult for the Wizards to trade John Wall, it should be easier for fantasy owners to acquire him. The chaos in Washington certainly deflates the point guard’s value as he and the team have underperformed. Yet, Wall actually ranks 15th on the year in fantasy, according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are also buy-low candidates based on perception, though each one has a better shot at being dealt by the Wizards than Wall due to his contract. Should the team deal one or both of his teammates, Wall’s usage (leading the team with 27.6%) would likely rise even further.
  • Despite a rough game against the Bucks his last time out, Zach LaVine remains a top-40 fantasy basketball option. Only two players averaging at least 20 minutes per game (James Harden and Russell Westbrook) have a higher usage rate than LaVine. The UCLA product is set to return to the Bulls lineup tonight against the Suns.
  • Joel Embiid has seen his usage increase (30.9% to 33.7%) since Jimmy Butler made his debut for the Sixers. Ben Simmons‘ usage is slightly down (21.0% to 19.0%) and Amir Johnson is seeing the biggest boost, going from 17.3% to 20.2% since last Wednesday.
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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Central Division

November 20th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

When we launched our 2018/19 Trade Candidate series last month, we began with the Central, where Kyle Korver and Robin Lopez were among the players that appeared to be available. Having worked our way through the NBA’s other five divisions since then, we’re circling back to the Central, which features several more viable candidates to be dealt, including one veteran who made headlines today.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Central…

J.R. Smith, G
Cleveland Cavaliers
$14.72MM cap hit; partially guaranteed salary ($3.87MM of $15.68MM) in 2019/20

Shortly after Smith reiterated his desire to be traded and expressed his belief that the Cavaliers aren’t trying to win, word broke that he and the team would be spending some time apart. Smith was already one of the league’s most obvious trade candidates. Now, he’s entered the Carmelo Anthony zone — Smith will remain away from the Cavs while his reps and the team’s front office try to find a trade.

If Smith was still making 37.5% of his three-pointers and providing the Cavs with solid minutes like he did last season, it’d be easier for the club to make a deal. Instead, he’s struggling with his shot (.342 FG%, .308 3PT%), raising uncertainty about whether he’s worth the investment for any potential suitors.

If they hope to get even a low second-round pick for Smith, Cleveland will have to be willing to take on some multiyear money from a team that needs another wing and wants to maximize its 2019 flexibility. The Pelicans, who could offer Solomon Hill‘s contract, could be one viable option.

Justin Holiday, G
Chicago Bulls
$4.38MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

Like teammate Robin Lopez, Holiday is a veteran on an expiring contract who looks expendable for the lottery-bound Bulls. Holiday may not provide as much on-court value as Lopez, but he has a more team-friendly cap hit and is on track for a career year.

In 17 games (all starts) so far this season, Holiday is averaging 11.9 PPG and 3.6 RPG to go along with career highs in APG (2.3), SPG (1.6), and 3PT% (.400). Not only is he making 40% of his three-point attempts, but he’s knocking down a career-best 2.9 per game.

The 29-year-old isn’t an elite three-and-D wing and his advanced numbers are a little troubling — the Bulls have a -15.4 net rating when Holiday plays, compared to +4.0 when he sits. Still, he’s a solid low-cost, low-risk contributor who could net the Bulls a second-round pick at the deadline.

Jon Leuer, F/C
Detroit Pistons
$10MM cap hit; guaranteed $9.51MM salary in 2019/20; UFA in 2020

Leuer’s on-court value has slipped in the last couple years as he has battled injuries and has been mostly relegated to the bench even when he’s healthy. However, he could be the salary-matching piece the Pistons need to include in a deal to upgrade on the wing.

Leuer’s $10MM cap hit for this year matches up well with a number of mid-level type players, and his deal, which declines in value to $9.5MM next season before expiring in 2020, isn’t an albatross.

The Pistons currently rank 29th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, so improving that 31.6% figure will be a priority this winter, even after Luke Kennard returns to action. Courtney Lee could be a target, using Leuer and a draft pick as bait. Even J.R. Smith, discussed above, could be a potential match for the Pistons using a similar package.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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