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How New Lottery Odds Will Affect NBA’s Race To The Bottom

November 23rd, 2018 at 12:10pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2018/19 NBA season is the first league year that will use the Association’s new odds for the draft lottery. Up until 2018, the top three spots in the draft were determined by the lottery, with the NBA’s worst team receiving a 25% shot at the No. 1 pick and a 64.3% chance of a top-three pick.

That will no longer be the case in 2019, as the league has tweaked its lottery system to distribute the odds of a top pick a little more evenly throughout the NBA’s bottom 14 teams.

The top four spots in the draft will now be set by the lottery, which means the worst team could pick as low as No. 5. Additionally, that team now only has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall selection, and a 40.1% chance at a top-three pick.

Here’s a full breakdown of how the lottery odds have changed. The new odds are indicated first, followed by the previous odds in parentheses.

Team No. 1 pick (%)
 Top-3 pick (%)
Team 1 14.0 (25.0) 40.1 (64.3)
Team 2 14.0 (19.9) 40.1 (55.8)
Team 3 14.0 (15.6) 40.1 (46.9)
Team 4 12.5 (11.9) 36.6 (37.8)
Team 5 10.5 (8.8) 31.6 (29.2)
Team 6 9.0 (6.3) 27.6 (21.5)
Team 7 7.5 (4.3) 23.4 (15.0)
Team 8 6.0 (2.8) 19.0 (10.0)
Team 9 4.5 (1.7) 14.5 (6.1)
Team 10 3.0 (1.1) 9.9 (4.0)
Team 11 2.0 (0.8) 6.6 (2.9)
Team 12 1.5 (0.7) 5.1 (2.5)
Team 13 1.0 (0.6) 3.3 (2.0)
Team 14 0.5 (0.5) 1.7 (1.8)

The new system doesn’t represent a total overhaul of the draft lottery, but the changes should still have a major impact on the lottery results going forward. The league’s three worst teams will all have equal odds at the No. 1 pick and a top-three pick, reducing the incentive to finish at the very bottom of the NBA standings.

The likelihood of a team in the 6-14 range jumping up to snag the top pick has been increased significantly as well. There’s now a 35% chance that one of those clubs will pick first overall — under the previous system, those odds were just 18.8%.

So what will the practical effects of these changes look like? Well, for one, we shouldn’t be quite as invested in the very bottom of the NBA standings. For instance, if the Suns, Cavaliers, and Hawks end up in a three-team race for the league’s worst record, it doesn’t really matter which team is the worst of the worst — they’d all end up with the exact same lottery odds.

Meanwhile, teams with picks in the middle of the lottery will have a better chance to make a leap in the draft order. For example, Sixers and Celtics fans may be discouraged by the Kings‘ hot start, since Sacramento’s pick will go to Philadelphia (if it’s No. 1) or Boston (if it’s No. 2 or lower). However, the revamped lottery odds could make that pick a little more interesting even if the Kings keep playing well.

Let’s say the Kings finish eighth in the lottery order. In past seasons, that pick would have had a 2.8% chance of landing at No. 1 and a 10% chance of jumping into the top three. This year, the odds of becoming the first overall selection would increase to 6%. It would also have a 19% chance of being a top-three pick, and a 26.2% of landing in the top four. It’s still a long shot to improve, but those odds aren’t nearly as long.

We’ll have to wait until later in the season to get a better sense of how the new lottery odds may impact situational tanking around the league. Whatever happens though, it looks like lottery night should be more interesting than ever going forward, with one extra top pick up for grabs and a shake-up in the draft order more likely than ever.

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Poll: Will The Grizzlies Make The Playoffs?

November 22nd, 2018 at 9:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Expectations weren’t high for the Grizzlies coming into the 2018/19 season. Oddsmakers placed Memphis’ over/under at 34.5 wins, which would have put the team in a tie with Dallas for the 12th-best record in the Western Conference. And it’s not as if fans and experts widely viewed that projection as pessimistic. In fact, in our preseason over/under polls, more than 60% of our respondents for the Grizzlies picked them to finish under 34.5 wins.

A little over a month later, as the regular season nears the one-quarter mark, the Grizzlies aren’t just exceeding expectations — they are, improbably, the No. 1 team in the Western Conference. Of course, the top 10 teams in the West are separated by just 2.5 games, so it’s not as if Memphis is running away with the conference, but the team’s 12-5 mark is good for first place for now.

While it remains to be seen if the Grizzlies’ early-season success is sustainable, it’s not as if a bunch of guys on the roster are playing over their heads. Offseason additions Jaren Jackson Jr. and Shelvin Mack have been better than expected so far, and the fact that Mike Conley and Marc Gasol have stayed healthy is a big help. But the Grizzlies’ major free agent signee, Kyle Anderson, hasn’t made a huge impact, and their third highest-paid player, Chandler Parsons, has once again been sidelined by health problems.

Memphis’ management talked in the offseason about wanting to return to a grit-and-grind style of play, which seemed like an unusual approach to take in a league that has become increasingly fast-paced and offense-oriented. However, it’s a path that’s worked for the Grizzlies so far.

Despite playing at the slowest pace in the NBA and ranking 26th in three-point attempts, Memphis is winning because of its defense and its ability to take care of the ball on the offense — the club ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, fifth in takeaways, and fourth in turnovers.

The Grizzlies couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season, but it comes with no guarantees. They still have 65 games left to play, and as we noted above, the top 10 teams in the West are separated by just 2.5 games. That group of 10 teams doesn’t even include the 8-9 Spurs or the 8-10 Jazz, who are out of the playoff picture at the moment, but figure to make a push at some point.

What are your expectations for Memphis this season? Will the Grizzlies’ hot start help propel them to a playoff berth at season’s end, or will they eventually drop off and finish outside the top eight in the Western Conference?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2018/19 NBA Trade Candidate Series

November 22nd, 2018 at 6:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

So far, we’ve worked our way through each of the six NBA divisions — our second time through the league is now in progress. This season’s trade deadline falls on February 7, so we should have plenty of time to revisit all six divisions at least a couple more times before the deadline passes and teams become ineligible to make in-season deals.

Each installment in our trade candidate series for the 2018/19 season is linked below, along with a description of which players we discuss in each piece. We’ll continue to update this page – which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” sidebar of our desktop page, or in the “Features” section of our mobile site – as we add new entries over the coming weeks and months.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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Community Shootaround: What’s Next For J.R. Smith?

November 21st, 2018 at 9:50pm CST by Arthur Hill

Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith joined former teammate Carmelo Anthony in NBA purgatory this week — technically still with a team, but not playing again until his next move can be worked out.

The Cavs confirmed yesterday that Smith will no longer have an active role with the organization as they work with his representatives to find a mutually acceptable outcome. However, the 33-year-old and his $14.72MM salary remain on the roster. Smith has asked twice for a trade, but has resisted a buyout that would require him to give back any of this year’s money.

Smith has been an important part of Cleveland’s success over the past four years, but he became obsolete when LeBron James announced that he was leaving for the Lakers. The Cavaliers are transitioning into a youth movement, leaving Smith with a much smaller role.

Management decided fewer minutes would be allotted to Smith and other veterans, although coaches Tyronn Lue and Larry Drew both ignored that edict for a while in pursuit of more wins. Smith wound up averaging 20.2 minutes in 11 games while contributing just 6.7 PPG and shooting .342 from the field.

Smith may have also contributed to his own departure with a pattern of controversial behavior over the years. Two that stood out from last season were a soup-throwing incident that resulted in a one-game suspension and his infamous decision to run out the clock at the end of Game 1 of the NBA Finals, believing the Cavaliers were leading when the score was actually tied.

Although Smith’s salary may scare some teams away from making a deal, he is owed very little money beyond this season. His $15.68MM figure for 2019/20 carries just a $3.87MM guarantee until the end of June, so any team that acquires him wouldn’t be making a long-term commitment.

We want to get your opinion on Smith’s future. He admits that he has a checkered past, but he also hit a lot of clutch shots for the Cavs on their way to four straight Eastern Conference titles and one NBA championship. Do you believe anyone will trade for him or will he have to accept a buyout to get out of Cleveland? Please leave your responses in the space below.

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Fantasy Hoops: Westbrook’s Decline? Trade Your Wizards?

November 21st, 2018 at 2:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Thunder are playing a different type of game than they have in the past and that involves lessening the load on Russell Westbrook, as ESPN’s Royce Young details. Westbrook is averaging 12 fewer touches per game this season than did last year and his individual time of possession has dropped from 9.1 seconds per game in 2017/18 to 7.0 so far this season.

Should you be worried about him from a fantasy standpoint? Not as much as you might think.

Westbrook is still seeing a major role in the offense. He returned to the court against the Kings on Monday after a six-game absence and was again first on the team in usage. The assist and rebound numbers are down, though both averages are still near nine per game. He’s averaging over 20 shots per game and making 48.8% of them on the season (while only an eight-game sample size, it represents a career-high).

“We’ve just got more creators,” Paul George said about the difference between this season and last. “It takes pressure off all of us when you’ve got guys that can make plays at different positions. Then when I have two point guards out there that can make plays, the game is so much easier for me.”

The Thunder are remaining competitive with Westbrook off the floor, and when he plays, he’s getting better looks as the offense is slightly less reliant on him. In roto leagues, he still hovers around top-10 value, as he does in point leagues.

Here’s more from around the NBA:

  • While it may be difficult for the Wizards to trade John Wall, it should be easier for fantasy owners to acquire him. The chaos in Washington certainly deflates the point guard’s value as he and the team have underperformed. Yet, Wall actually ranks 15th on the year in fantasy, according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are also buy-low candidates based on perception, though each one has a better shot at being dealt by the Wizards than Wall due to his contract. Should the team deal one or both of his teammates, Wall’s usage (leading the team with 27.6%) would likely rise even further.
  • Despite a rough game against the Bucks his last time out, Zach LaVine remains a top-40 fantasy basketball option. Only two players averaging at least 20 minutes per game (James Harden and Russell Westbrook) have a higher usage rate than LaVine. The UCLA product is set to return to the Bulls lineup tonight against the Suns.
  • Joel Embiid has seen his usage increase (30.9% to 33.7%) since Jimmy Butler made his debut for the Sixers. Ben Simmons‘ usage is slightly down (21.0% to 19.0%) and Amir Johnson is seeing the biggest boost, going from 17.3% to 20.2% since last Wednesday.
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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Central Division

November 20th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

When we launched our 2018/19 Trade Candidate series last month, we began with the Central, where Kyle Korver and Robin Lopez were among the players that appeared to be available. Having worked our way through the NBA’s other five divisions since then, we’re circling back to the Central, which features several more viable candidates to be dealt, including one veteran who made headlines today.

Here’s our latest look at a few possible trade candidates from the Central…

J.R. Smith, G
Cleveland Cavaliers
$14.72MM cap hit; partially guaranteed salary ($3.87MM of $15.68MM) in 2019/20

Shortly after Smith reiterated his desire to be traded and expressed his belief that the Cavaliers aren’t trying to win, word broke that he and the team would be spending some time apart. Smith was already one of the league’s most obvious trade candidates. Now, he’s entered the Carmelo Anthony zone — Smith will remain away from the Cavs while his reps and the team’s front office try to find a trade.

If Smith was still making 37.5% of his three-pointers and providing the Cavs with solid minutes like he did last season, it’d be easier for the club to make a deal. Instead, he’s struggling with his shot (.342 FG%, .308 3PT%), raising uncertainty about whether he’s worth the investment for any potential suitors.

If they hope to get even a low second-round pick for Smith, Cleveland will have to be willing to take on some multiyear money from a team that needs another wing and wants to maximize its 2019 flexibility. The Pelicans, who could offer Solomon Hill‘s contract, could be one viable option.

Justin Holiday, G
Chicago Bulls
$4.38MM cap hit; unrestricted free agent in 2019

Like teammate Robin Lopez, Holiday is a veteran on an expiring contract who looks expendable for the lottery-bound Bulls. Holiday may not provide as much on-court value as Lopez, but he has a more team-friendly cap hit and is on track for a career year.

In 17 games (all starts) so far this season, Holiday is averaging 11.9 PPG and 3.6 RPG to go along with career highs in APG (2.3), SPG (1.6), and 3PT% (.400). Not only is he making 40% of his three-point attempts, but he’s knocking down a career-best 2.9 per game.

The 29-year-old isn’t an elite three-and-D wing and his advanced numbers are a little troubling — the Bulls have a -15.4 net rating when Holiday plays, compared to +4.0 when he sits. Still, he’s a solid low-cost, low-risk contributor who could net the Bulls a second-round pick at the deadline.

Jon Leuer, F/C
Detroit Pistons
$10MM cap hit; guaranteed $9.51MM salary in 2019/20; UFA in 2020

Leuer’s on-court value has slipped in the last couple years as he has battled injuries and has been mostly relegated to the bench even when he’s healthy. However, he could be the salary-matching piece the Pistons need to include in a deal to upgrade on the wing.

Leuer’s $10MM cap hit for this year matches up well with a number of mid-level type players, and his deal, which declines in value to $9.5MM next season before expiring in 2020, isn’t an albatross.

The Pistons currently rank 29th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, so improving that 31.6% figure will be a priority this winter, even after Luke Kennard returns to action. Courtney Lee could be a target, using Leuer and a draft pick as bait. Even J.R. Smith, discussed above, could be a potential match for the Pistons using a similar package.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Weekly Mailbag: 11/12/18 – 11/18/18

November 18th, 2018 at 12:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Is there an actual trade market for Wesley Matthews? I’ve seen him on plenty of “trade candidate” type articles lately but can’t imagine who would take him, and I’m a Mavs fan. — Mike O’Neill, via Twitter

Matthews has a couple of advantages that could create a strong demand before the trade deadline arrives in February. He’s only 32 and seems fully recovered from the Achilles injury that derailed his career in Portland, plus he’s got an $18.6MM expiring contract. Matthews is off to his best start in years, averaging 16.2 PPG through 13 games while shooting 38% from 3-point range. If he keeps up that level of play, Dallas should get a nice return for him. Of course, that’s assuming the Mavericks are sellers rather than buyers at the deadline. Last night’s win over the Warriors has them at 7-8 and back in the middle of the Western Conference playoff race.

I was wondering where Jawun Evans ended up. The Clippers were trying to trade him to make the best out of an overflow situation, but the rumor was no one was biting was despite four or five teams wanting him. They knew the Clips had to make the cut. What happened to the four or five teams waiting for Evans? — Nicolas Galipeau

Evans recently signed with the Suns’ G League affiliate in Northern Arizona and is waiting for his next NBA opportunity. Players who get cut right before the season starts usually have a hard time getting picked up right away because everyone’s roster is set. Evans certainly looked like he has an NBA future during the 48 games he played for the Clippers last year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back in the league before the end of the season.

If the Wizards can’t get back into contention after their slow start, which players are most likely to be moved when the sell-off begins? — D.P., via Twitter

John Wall may seem like the most obvious answer, but the Designated Veteran Player Extension he signed in the summer of 2017 will kick in next season, making him a huge financial risk. Wall will get $170MM over the next four years, including a cap-draining $47.3MM in 2022-23. Teams may ask for Bradley Beal, but he is much more affordable for the Wizards to keep with a deal that pays $27MM and $28.75MM over the next two years. The answer may be Otto Porter Jr., who was mentioned as a possibility for the Rockets in a recent story by Jonathan Tjarks of The Ringer. That’s a situation to keep an eye on if Washington can’t climb up the standings before the trade deadline.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/10/18 – 11/17/18

November 17th, 2018 at 1:19pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, our writing team here at Hoops Rumors creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southeast Division

November 16th, 2018 at 9:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southeast Division:

Dewayne Dedmon, Hawks, 29, C (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $14.1MM deal in 2017
Dedmon’s journeyman career had been on an upward path the past couple of seasons but appears to have plateaued under new coach Lloyd Pierce. Dedmon was coming off the bench before missing a few games for personal reasons after starting 46 games last season under Mike Budenholzer. His playing time has taken a hit from 24.9 MPG to 19.7. Dedmon is making $7.2MM but will likely have to settle for a veteran’s minimum deal or something close to it in unrestricted free agency next summer.

Wayne Ellington, Heat, 30, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $6.27MM deal in 2018
The Heat have an overload of options at the wing positions but Ellington’s shooting has made him a steady rotation presence since recovering from an ankle injury. Over the past five games, Ellington is shooting 44.7% on his 3-point attempts. That’s the main reason coach Erik Spoestra has played him an average of 28.6 MPG over that span. Ellington settled for a one-year contract in free agency this summer and his outside shooting should lead to multi-year offers in July.

Jeremy Lamb, Hornets, 26, SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $21MM deal in 2016
Lamb averaged double digits in scoring for the first time in his career last season and he’s established himself as a starter this season. Lamb is averaging 12.9 PPG as Kemba Walker‘s backcourt partner while shooting a career-best 39.2% from long range. He’s also been a factor on defense (career high 1.4 SPG). Lamb is making $7.49MM and his shooting and defensive length will grant him a healthy raise when he hits the open market in July.

Terrence Ross, Magic, 27, SG/SF (Up) — Signed to a three-year, $31.5MM deal in 2016
Ross appeared in only 24 games last season due to a knee injury. He started most of the games he was able to play for Orlando after being dealt by the Raptors in February 2017 but new coach Steve Clifford has made him a second-unit contributor. Thus far, Ross has thrived in that role, averaging 13.9 PPG while making a career-high 39.3% of his threes. That kind of production will give him consideration for the Sixth Man award if he keeps it up. It would also lead to multi-year offers next summer for Ross, who is making $10.5MM.

Kelly Oubre, Wizards, 22, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $9.2MM deal in 2015
The Wizards have finally shown some signs of life, winning their last three games, but Oubre has been heading in the opposite direction. He’s scored in single digits in five of the last six games. He’s also been in a prolonged shooting slump, making 14% of his 3-point tries over the last nine games. The capped-out Wizards must extend a $4,485,665 qualifying offer to Oubre next June to make him a restricted free agent. If he has a down year, the Wizards’ decision will become even tougher.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Southeast Winner

November 16th, 2018 at 8:06pm CST by Dana Gauruder

A month into the season, there’s one division that doesn’t have a team with a winning record.

It shouldn’t come as a big surprise that division is the Southeast. Washington seemed like the class of the five-team grouping heading into the season but the Wizards got off to a horrendous start. They lost nine of their first 11 games and both John Wall and Bradley Beal called out their teammates. There were also questions about the status of coach Scott Brooks and speculation that the team’s high-priced backcourt would be broken up.

A three-game winning streak has temporarily muffled the Wizards’ critics, though they often seem like a team that’s on the verge of imploding. Wall and Beal have an uneasy partnership, Otto Porter Jr. hasn’t lived up to his big contract and Dwight Howard has a habit of wearing out his welcome quickly.

The Hornets led the division entering Friday’s action with a .500 mark. The Hornets are heavily reliant on their guards for offense — their top four scorers are the starting backcourt of Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb and backups, Malik Monk and Tony Parker. Their rotation of frontcourt players doesn’t scare anyone.

The Heat have plenty of depth but no stars, except for one near the end of his career (Dwyane Wade). Josh Richardson has been their top scorer in the early going but coach Erik Spoelstra has a tricky task of divvying up minutes and it will be an even more delicate situation when James Johnson and Dion Waiters return from injuries. Hassan Whiteside has never been one to hide his displeasure concerning his playing time but emerging big man Bam Adebayo needs to have a defined role.

The Magic need to develop their young bigs, Mohamed Bamba and Jonathan Isaac, but they’re currently backing up the team’s top two scorers, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. The point guard duo of D.J. Augustin and Jerian Grant doesn’t make a lot of turnovers but Orlando sorely lacks players who can create and draw fouls. The Magic rank last in free throws attempted.

The rebuilding Hawks can be dismissed from the discussion.

That brings us to our question of the day: Which team do you feel will wind up as the Southeast Division champion?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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