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How Bayless’ Inclusion In Butler Deal Impacts Sixers’ Trade Options

November 14th, 2018 at 1:49pm CST by Luke Adams

The majority of this week’s analysis on the trade package the Sixers sent the Timberwolves in the Jimmy Butler trade has focused on Dario Saric and Robert Covington, and rightly so. Those are the two players expected to contribute to the Wolves right away and to become potential long-term building blocks for the franchise.

However, a third player, Jerryd Bayless, was also sent to Minnesota in the deal, and the impact his inclusion in the deal will have on the Sixers shouldn’t be overlooked.

As we detailed in our financial breakdown of the Butler trade, the deal couldn’t have been completed without the inclusion of Bayless. Saric’s and Covington’s salaries weren’t enough to match Butler’s $20MM+ cap hit on their own, and salary-matching became even trickier once Justin Patton was attached to Butler. In order to make the trade work financially, the 76ers had to include Bayless and his $8.58MM cap charge.

The loss of Bayless is hardly a debilitating one for the Sixers from an on-court perspective. The veteran guard has only played in 42 games over the last three seasons, with a knee injury currently keeping him on the shelf. Even when healthy, Bayless was unlikely to play much of a role for a 76ers team that already had three point guards in its rotation, in Ben Simmons, T.J. McConnell, and Markelle Fultz. If including him in the Butler deal was the final piece to acquire an All-NBA player, it was, of course, a no-brainer for Philadelphia.

Still, Bayless’ lack of a rotation role, his expiring contract, and his mid-level salary made him an ideal trade chip for a Sixers team that still needs to add shooting depth. Because he wasn’t part of Philadelphia’s rotation, the team could afford to give him up, and because he had no guaranteed money on his deal beyond this season, he would appeal to potential trade partners who didn’t want to compromise their future flexibility.

For instance, the Sixers reportedly remain interested in Cavaliers sharpshooter Kyle Korver. Without Bayless, who was a part of the Korver trade discussions between the two teams in July, the path to acquiring Korver and his $7.56MM salary becomes trickier. In order to meet the league’s salary-matching rules, the Sixers would have to send out at least $4.26MM+.

The 76ers have seven players earning more than that amount. Of those seven, Butler, Simmons, Joel Embiid, and J.J. Redick aren’t going anywhere; dealing Mike Muscala or Wilson Chandler wouldn’t improve the team’s depth, since the team is already relying on those players to be key rotation pieces; and Fultz’s stock hasn’t fallen so far that Philadelphia would move him for Korver.

That means in order to match Korver’s salary, the Sixers would have to package at least a couple lesser-paid players. The expiring contracts for Patton ($2.67MM) and Furkan Korkmaz ($1.74MM) would work, and would probably be the most likely package – along with a draft pick or two – if Philadelphia makes a play for Korver or another shooter in his salary range, such as Jeremy Lamb or Wayne Ellington.

The Sixers’ salary-matching options would become more complicated if they wanted to go after a player with a higher salary though. For instance, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer suggested in a podcast that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is one player on the team’s radar, as Bryan Kalbrosky of HoopsHype relays. Caldwell-Pope has a $12MM cap hit, which would be virtually impossible for the Sixers to match without using a rotation player like Chandler or a prospect like Fultz, now that Bayless is no longer on their books.

There are plenty of ways the Sixers could get creative on the trade market, and it’s worth noting that the team may not even need to make any deals — after all, last season’s impact in-season additions, Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli, were both signed on the buyout market.

Still, the Sixers can’t count on striking gold with players like Ilyasova and Belinelli again, and not having Bayless on the roster will limit their flexibility to some extent. Sending Bayless to the Timberwolves was necessary to land Butler, and the Sixers would do it over again every day of the week, but it will be interesting to see whether a player who was an afterthought in that deal will hamstring the franchise’s trade options later in the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Fantasy Hoops: Processing The Jimmy Butler Trade

November 14th, 2018 at 9:42am CST by ChrisCrouse

“It is critical to be cycle aware in a talent-driven league. In a situation like yours at the Sixers, where a variety of circumstances left you near a trough in the cycle [and falling], amplifying this cycle became crucial. Today’s outcomes for every team are heavily impacted by decisions past [who to draft, sign, trade, hire, etc].

Jeff Bezos says that if Amazon has a good quarter it’s because of work they did three, four, five years ago—not because they did a good job that quarter.” 

Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie wrote those words in his infamous 13-page manifesto, in which he expanded on the idea of having the longest view in the room. Hinkie discussed the moves the Warriors made to set up their dynasty, how Boston was able to land Kevin Garnett a decade ago by planning ahead, and how the Rockets and Spurs were able to bring James Harden and LaMarcus Aldridge to their respective Texas clubs.

This past weekend, the Sixers “ended” The Process by making their move for a star; the event was years in the making.

They found their missing piece by adding Jimmy Butler and trading away two of Hinkie’s gems in Robert Covington and Dario Saric. The deal signals the end of a long journey, one that sets the franchise up to become a true title contender. The path wasn’t easy. The games were borderline unwatchable at times, even for basketball purists, but Philadelphia finally has aligned its stars. The clock has begun to tick on the franchise’s new cycle.

It’s unlikely we see another Hinkie-esque rebuild, as I wrote during last year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. James Anderson likely will never again see his face displayed as large and as proudly as it was on the banners in the Wells Fargo Center during the team’s post-2014 trade deadline games. Questions such as, “Can JaKarr Sampson make it as a role player?” or “What’s the best way to build around Jahlil Okafor‘s game?” or “When will the Sixers’ first-round pick play?” are no longer ones Sixers fans need to worry about answering (except for that last question, which seemingly pops up every year).

The Sixers in a great position because of their times of tribulations. The team is even set up to add yet another piece this summer should they convince a top free agent to sign on the dotted line.

As for this season, we’ve got you covered on the impact this trade will have on the fantasy landscape. Here are the three big questions following the deal:

How Will The Sixers’ Big Three Look?

Gone are the days of random DNPs, as the trade to Philadelphia has likely cured Jimmy Butler of his “general soreness.” Butler owners can exhale.

The four-time All-Star certainly won’t average 40+ minutes per night, as he did over his last three games with the Timberwolves (man, Tom Thibodeau surely was squeezing every last bit of value out of Butler before dealing him away). Still, he was the 11th-best player in 9-cat leagues last season and he could easily sneak into the top 10, as he did during the 2016/17 campaign.

Butler’s presence doesn’t dramatically change the value of either Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid. Embiid displayed MVP-level game and usage during the team’s first 15 games. His ability to get to the line has been particularly remarkable, as he posted his third game with at least 20 free throws on Monday against the Heat.

Embiid entered Tuesday sitting seventh in the NBA in usage (30.9%) and second in the league in scoring (28.2 points per game) behind only Stephen Curry. Perhaps those figures slightly decline with Butler in the fold. Regardless, Embiid remains a top-10 option.

Simmons should still pepper nearly all the categories on a nightly basis. He’s a top-25 option the rest of the way, though he should be valued below Butler in all formats.

Will A New Fantasy Option Rise From The Ashes Of The Process?

With Philadelphia trading away two key contributors, another fantasy option could emerge in the City of Brotherly Love. Mike Muscala is likely the best bet until the Sixers make another acquisition.

He’s a career 37.6% shooter from behind the arc and the foursome of J.J. Redick, Embiid, Simmons, and Muscala has the highest net rating among any four-man lineup (min 20 mins played) that coach Brett Brown has at his disposal. It’s easy to envision the 76ers playing those four alongside Butler as they close games.

Wilson Chandler, who started against the Heat on Monday and played 23 minutes, will have an opportunity to sneak into the fantasy discussion, but there’s a good chance that he may get enough of the offensive pie to make a real difference. He previously told Hoops Rumors that he doesn’t expect to play a high usage role for the Sixers this season.

Furkan Korkmaz saw 22 minutes against Miami, his second straight game with that much action. He has made 9-of-17 shots over those two games including six-of-13 from downtown. He’s worth a flier despite the uncertainty around his happiness in Philadelphia. Landry Shamet is also a candidate to see a rise in value and could be worth a speculative add.

What About Minnesota?

On the other side of the trade, Robert Covington‘s value will remain intact. As I mentioned in last week’s Fantasy Hoops, he should be owned in all roto leagues.

Dario Saric gets to another chance at a fresh start after the trade. He’s shooting just 36.4% on the season and as I explained on a recent episode of NBA Math’s Hardwood Knocks, his struggles would be even more apparent to casual fans if not for Markelle Fultz having his own issues. As a member of the Wolves, Saric likely won’t have the luxury of being just the second-most disappointing player should he continue to struggle.

Still, this is a buy-low opportunity for the owners eyeing the Croatian big. He’s had slow starts in the past and he should move into the Timberwolves’ starting lineup once he makes his debut. At least one league executive expects RoCo and The Homie to mesh well with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins.

Towns is the biggest beneficiary of Butler’s departure from a fantasy standpoint. Expect his usage to settle in the 24-28% range. He’s a borderline top-five fantasy option. If you own Nikola Jokic, Towns represents a slight upgrade and I’d recommend attempting to make that swap.

Derrick Rose remains a fantasy zombie and Jeff Teague becomes a more attractive option after the deal. Wiggins, who is nursing a quad injury, had some mysterious DNPs while the Butler saga inflamed. Expect him to see his usage rise ever so slightly.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Salary Floor

November 13th, 2018 at 12:54pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s salary cap primarily serves as a way to restrict the amount a team can invest in player salaries in a given year. However, because the league has a soft cap rather than a hard cap, there’s technically no specific figure that clubs are prohibited from exceeding once they go over the cap to re-sign players.

There is, however, a specific threshold on the lower end that teams must meet in each NBA season. The league’s minimum salary floor requires a club to spend at least 90% of the salary cap on player salaries. For instance, with the 2018/19 cap set at $101,869,000, the salary floor for this season is $91,682,100.

If a team finishes the regular season below the NBA’s salary floor for that league year, the penalties levied against that team aren’t exactly harsh — the franchise is simply required to make up the shortfall by paying the difference to its players. For example, if a team finished this season with a team salary of $88,682,100, that team would be required to distribute that $3MM shortfall among its players.

The players’ union determines how exactly the money is divvied up — most recently, players who spent at least 41 games on a team’s roster have received a full share, while players with between 20-40 games on the roster receive a half share. A player can’t exceed his maximum salary as a result of a shortfall payment.

For the purposes of calculating whether a team has reached the minimum salary threshold, cap holds and international buyouts aren’t considered, but players who suffered career-ending injuries or illnesses are included in the count, even if they’ve since been removed from the club’s cap.

Additionally, the NBA made a change in its most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement to prevent teams from circumventing certain rules to reach the salary floor. Under the old CBA, a team that was $8MM below the salary floor could trade a player earning $4MM for a player earning $12MM halfway through the season and be in accordance with minimum team salary rules.

Under the current CBA, only the salary the team actually pays the player counts for minimum team salary purposes. For instance, in the example above, the team would be credited with having paid its original player $2MM for the first half of the season and its new player $6MM for the second half. In that scenario, the club would still be $4MM shy of the salary floor.

For the 2018/19 season, only one team is currently below the salary floor, as the Kings have a team salary of $90,844,422, per Basketball Insiders. If Sacramento’s team salary remains unchanged until the end of the season, the result would be a very modest shortfall of $837,678. That’s an unlikely outcome though — the club is a good bet to reach the floor at some point later in the season via free agent signings and/or trades.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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Butler Trade Latest In Series Of Notable November Deals

November 12th, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Conventional NBA wisdom suggests that the in-season trade market generally doesn’t heat up until at least mid-December. Entering the regular season, most teams want a little time to assess their rosters and aren’t eager to blow things up right away. Plus, offseason signees aren’t eligible to be traded until at least December 15, so clubs have more flexibility to build a variety of packages once that date passes.

However, in recent years, teams have completed a handful of noteworthy trades in November. The blockbuster deal sending Jimmy Butler from Minnesota to Philadelphia is just the latest in a series of impactful deals completed more than a month before December 15.

A few factors could be contributing to the recent rise in early-season deals. The NBA moved up the start date of its regular season within the last two years, so opening night lands in mid-October instead of late October. While this change isn’t massive, it means that a team that might once have played its second or third game of the season on Halloween could now be mired in a six-game losing streak by that point, creating a little more urgency to make a deal earlier in the calendar year.

Additionally, Butler’s trade request, which broke in September, happened at an unusual time of year and put pressure on Minnesota. Once the Timberwolves entered the regular season with Butler still on the roster, it seemed to be just a matter of time until they resolved the situation by finding a new home for their All-Star swingman. The same thing happened a year ago with another standout player, as we outline below.

Here’s a look at the NBA’s November trades over the last three seasons:

November 12, 2018:

It has been a while since an All-NBA player like Butler has been traded this early in the regular season. Typically, that sort of deal happens in the offseason – as in the case of Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George – or closer to the trade deadline, like when Blake Griffin or DeMarcus Cousins were moved.

In this case, the Timberwolves had to make a move sooner rather than later, and they found a willing trade partner in the Sixers, who have shown no hesitation to shake things up early in the season over the last few years — Philadelphia has made an in-season trade before December 8 in each of the last three seasons.

November 7, 2017:

  • Suns trade Eric Bledsoe to the Bucks in exchange for Greg Monroe, a protected first-round pick, and a protected second-round pick.

Like Butler, Bledsoe expressed dissatisfaction with his situation in the fall, necessitating an early-season trade. The Suns moved a little faster than the Timberwolves did, holding Bledsoe out of action for about two weeks following his infamous “I don’t wanna be here” tweet before they found a deal.

In retrospect, it might’ve made sense for the Suns – who were already essentially in tank mode early in 2017/18 season – to exercise a little more patience as they shopped Bledsoe. Monroe was a salary-matching piece who was later bought out, and the first-round pick Phoenix got in the deal likely won’t change hands until 2020, at which point it may well land in the 20s. On top of that, the second-round pick didn’t convey at all due to its protections.

Bledsoe is now a key part of a resurgent Bucks team, and he’s very much enjoying his time in Milwaukee.

November 1, 2016:

At the time this deal was completed, it was viewed as a relatively minor move, but Grant has blossomed into a major contributor in Oklahoma City, re-signing with the Thunder on a three-year, $27MM deal this past summer.

Ilyasova, meanwhile, was essentially a salary dump in this trade, but he has since re-emerged as a reliable rotation player, thriving as a stretch four in Philadelphia last season and Milwaukee this season.

As for the pick sent to the Sixers in this deal, it was re-routed to Orlando in the 2017 trade that allowed Philadelphia to snag Anzejs Pasecniks‘s draft-and-stash rights. If the pick lands in the top 20 in 2020, it will turn into 2022 and 2023 second-round picks for the Magic.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Timberwolves’ 2018/19 Outlook

November 12th, 2018 at 1:36pm CST by Luke Adams

2018 has been a bizarre year for the Timberwolves, who were, before Jimmy Butler went down with a knee injury last season, the third seed in the Western Conference. Following Butler’s injury, Minnesota nearly fell out of the playoff picture completely, clinching a postseason berth on the last day of the 2017/18 season to snap a streak of 13 straight years in the lottery. However, that victory was short-lived, as the Wolves were quickly dispatched from the playoffs by the top-seeded Rockets, then went through the very public saga of a Butler trade request this fall.

With Butler officially headed to Philadelphia, some sense of normalcy may now return to the Timberwolves, who can go back to building around former No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns, along with fellow top pick Andrew Wiggins.

Butler is probably a top-20 player in the NBA, so the club’s ceiling isn’t as high without him as it was with him. Nonetheless, with veterans like Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, and Anthony Tolliver also on the roster, and newly-added rotation players like Robert Covington and Dario Saric entering the mix too, not to mention promising rookie Josh Okogie, there’s still plenty of talent in Minnesota.

The dysfunction that Butler’s trade request created during the first month of the season appeared to be impacting the team on the court, as the Timberwolves got off to a 4-9 start, good for 14th in the Western Conference. Now that he’s gone, perhaps the new-look Wolves, who don’t have to constantly worry about whether or not Butler will play, or what he’ll tell reporters after the game, can settle in and find their groove.

Still, it’s not clear what sort of upside this team has in the short term. The Western Conference will be extremely competitive this season — the Jazz, Pelicans, and Rockets are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, and figure to make a run at some point. The Grizzlies, Clippers, and Kings are among the pleasant surprises out West so far, and look capable of staying competitive. The Mavericks (4-8) and Suns (2-10) don’t appears to be major playoff threats, but even those two clubs have multiple talented young players and are capable of pushing any team on any given night.

With all that in mind, we want to know what you expect from the Timberwolves the rest of the way. Is this still a team capable of earning a playoff spot? Will they at least make a run at the top eight, perhaps finishing in the 9-to-11 range? Or is this a bottom-four team in the West for 2018/19?

Vote below in our poll, then head down to the comment section to share your thoughts on the new-look Wolves.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Proration

November 12th, 2018 at 10:46am CST by Luke Adams

The concept of proration is one used in variety of fields and professions, and isn’t specific to the NBA. The term, which shows up frequently in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, refers to the practice of calculating a figure proportionately.

In the NBA, the most common examples of proration apply to players on non-guaranteed contracts who are waived before their salaries become guaranteed, or players who sign minimum-salary contracts partway through the season. In each instance, the player would receive a prorated portion of his salary based on the number of days he was under contract during the season.

For example, when Tyson Chandler signed with the Lakers on November 6, he received a minimum salary contract. For the 2018/19 season, the minimum salary for a player with Chandler’s experience is $2,393,887, though it would only count against his team’s cap for $1,512,601, as we explain here. However, since Chandler wasn’t with the Lakers since the start of the season, he wouldn’t be entitled to that full minimum salary from the team.

The NBA season is 177 days long and Chandler signed his contract on the 22nd day of the season, meaning his one-year contract will span 156 days. Due to proration, his minimum salary will be worth 156/177th of a full minimum salary. So instead of earning $2,393,887, he’ll make $2,109,867. And instead of counting for $1,512,601 on the Lakers’ books, the cap charge will be 156/177th of that amount: $1,333,140.

If the Lakers had signed Chandler using cap space or a cap exception like the disabled player exception, his salary wouldn’t have been prorated, but the minimum salary exception begins to prorate after the first day of the regular season.

The same principle of proration applies to a player like Ben Moore, who was on a non-guaranteed contract with the Pacers before being waived on November 3. Moore was released on the 19th day of the 2018/19 season, but the NBA also pays players for the two days they spend on waivers, so the young forward was credited with 21 days of service. That means, due to proration, he was entitled to 21/177th of his $1,349,383 salary — that amount worked out to $160,096.

While situations like Chandler’s and Moore’s are the most frequent examples of proration’s impact on NBA finances, there are many more instances where it pops up.

Here’s a quick breakdown of several of those other instances of proration:

  • Mid-level and bi-annual exceptions: These exceptions begin to prorate on January 10, declining in value by 1/177th each day until the end of the regular season.
  • Trade kickers: If a player with a trade kicker in his contract is traded during the season, the kicker only applies to his remaining salary. Let’s say a player has a 15% trade kicker and an $8MM salary in his contract year and is dealt halfway through the season. His 15% trade kicker would only apply to the $4MM left on his deal, giving him a $600K bonus.
  • 10-day contracts: A 10-day salary is prorated based on a full-season salary. Most players on 10-day contracts would earn 10/177th of their minimum salary.
  • Two-way contracts: Players on two-way contracts earn a prorated portion of their NBA and two-way salaries depending on how many days they spend in each league. Additionally, if a two-way player is signed during the season, he’ll only be eligible to be with the NBA team for a prorated portion of the typical 45-day limit. For instance, a player who signs a two-way contract at the season’s midway point would be entitled to 23 days at the NBA level.
  • Signing bonuses: If a teams gives a player a signing bonus in a free agent contract, that bonus is prorated equally over the guaranteed seasons of the contract for cap purposes. For example, a $4MM signing bonus on a four-year contract would add $1MM to the player’s cap charge for each of the four seasons.
  • Salary floor calculations: When calculating a team’s payroll in relation to the league’s minimum salary floor, we count the salary that a team actually pays to a player, rather than the player’s cap hit. For instance, if a team traded for a player on a $12MM contract halfway through the season and kept him the rest of the way, he would count for $6MM toward the salary floor, rather than $12MM.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Sixers New Eastern Favorite?

November 10th, 2018 at 9:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Sixers went through the offseason without adding a third star to join Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, but they finally got their man today when an agreement was reached to acquire Jimmy Butler from the Timberwolves.

A four-time All-Star, Butler figures to provide immediate improvement on offense and defense. He will help Simmons with playmaking duties and will give Philadelphia another proven shot maker. At 29, he provides some veteran leadership on an otherwise young team along with a fiery presence.

This appears to be the start of a long-term relationship, although nothing is set in stone because Butler is expected to opt out of his $19.8MM salary for 2019/20 and become a free agent. Philadelphia will have nearly a whole season to watch Butler in action before committing to a new five-year contract that would be worth nearly $190MM.

Today’s deal provides a measure of vindication for a franchise that had two big misses during the summer. The Sixers were the only other team LeBron James met with before deciding to sign with the Lakers. And even if LeBron always had his heart set on L.A., Kawhi Leonard was a much more realistic target. Philadelphia was reportedly in the running to land Leonard before the Spurs opted for Toronto’s offer of DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl.

The Sixers drew criticism for taking their time in replacing former president of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo. He resigned from his position in early June and Elton Brand wasn’t installed as GM until mid-September, leaving a group effort in charge of the team during some of the NBA’s most crucial months.

Brand quieted much of that criticism today, with some help from owner Josh Harris, who reportedly closed the deal in direct talks with Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor. The East’s new Big Three is now in place in Philadelphia and the Sixers appear to have a roster that can make a run at a title.

We want to get your opinion on how today’s trade shakes up the Eastern Conference. Are the Sixers the new favorites or are they still a notch below the Raptors, Bucks and Celtics? Please leave your responses in the space below.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/4/18 – 11/10/18

November 10th, 2018 at 3:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, our writing team here at Hoops Rumors creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Financial Impact Of Jimmy Butler Blockbuster

November 10th, 2018 at 2:05pm CST by Luke Adams

The blockbuster trade agreed upon today by the Sixers and Timberwolves that sends Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia will, of course, have massive on-court ramifications for both teams. However, it’s also worth taking a closer look at the deal from a financial perspective to see exactly how it worked, how it will impact the players involved, and how it will affect the Sixers’ and Timberwolves’ short- and long-term cap outlook.

Let’s dive right in and examine the financial implications of today’s mega-deal…

How salary-matching works in the trade:

Butler’s cap hit for the 2018/19 season is $20,445,779. In order to meet the salary-matching requirements to land Butler, the Sixers have to send out at least $15.45MM in salaries of their own, which means that Robert Covington ($10,464,092) and Dario Saric ($2,526,840) aren’t enough. That explains the inclusion of Jerryd Bayless ($8,575,916) in the deal.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Traded Player Exception]

With Bayless in the mix, his salary – combined with Covington’s – allows the Sixers to take back up to about $24MM, which is more than enough to acquire Butler and Justin Patton ($2,667,600) without even having to use Saric for salary-matching purposes. That means the 76ers will create a traded player exception worth Saric’s $2,526,840 salary. It will expire in a year.

From the Timberwolves’ perspective, Butler’s outgoing salary is big enough to absorb Covington’s, Saric’s, and Bayless’ without needing to use Patton for matching purposes. Because Patton – like Saric – was technically traded for “nothing,” Minnesota will create a trade exception worth $2,667,600, the amount of Patton’s salary.

The impact on Jimmy Butler’s potential earnings:

This trade won’t make Butler eligible to earn any more – or any less – money when he reaches free agency in 2019. However, it’s now the Sixers – rather than the Timberwolves – who will have the ability to offer him more years and more money than any other team, since his Bird rights will be traded along with him.

Based on a $109MM salary cap projection for 2019/20, Butler will be eligible for a five-year, maximum salary deal worth $189.66MM with the 76ers. If he signs with any other team, Butler’s projected maximum contract would be four years and $140.61MM. That’s certainly one reason why the Sixers are so optimistic that they can lock up the 29-year-old long-term.

Technically, Butler would be eligible to sign an in-season contract extension before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2019, but there would be strict limitations on such a deal and it wouldn’t make sense for him from a financial perspective.

Read more

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How Early Hot, Cold Streaks May Impact Traded Draft Picks

November 9th, 2018 at 2:55pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors, Nuggets, Bucks, Grizzlies, and Kings are among the NBA teams that have made the strongest impression in the first month of the 2018/19 season, outperforming expectations early in the year. On the other end of the spectrum, the Cavaliers and Mavericks have been among the league’s worst teams, underperforming expectations that weren’t all that high to begin with.

These teams all have something in common — they’ve traded away their 2019 first-round picks, often with protections on them. We still have about 70 games to go in ’18/19, so it’s way too early to determine exactly where those picks will fall, or even whether or not they’ll changes hands in many cases. However, based on what we’ve seen from those teams so far, we have a better idea of what to expect the rest of the way than we did a month ago.

Let’s take a look at how some of those early-season trades may affect 2019’s traded first round picks…

Toronto Raptors (11-1)
First-round pick traded to Spurs (top-20 protected)

Even with top-20 protection, this pick looks like a very safe bet to change hands. If the season ended today, it would be No. 30, since Toronto has the NBA’s best record.

Denver Nuggets (9-2)
First-round pick traded to Nets (top-12 protected)

After a season in which the Nuggets narrowly missed the playoffs, it wasn’t unreasonable for Brooklyn to hope this pick would fall in the mid-teens. Instead, with Denver looking like one of the Western Conference’s best teams so far, it may land well into the 20s.

Milwaukee Bucks (9-2)
First-round pick traded to Suns (top-3 protected; 17-30 protected)

The unusual protections on this pick will likely to prevent it from changing hands for a second consecutive year, since it projects to fall in the 17-30 range. If Milwaukee’s 2019 first-rounder doesn’t convey, the Bucks would owe the Suns their 2020 first-rounder, with top-7 protection.

Memphis Grizzlies (6-4)
First-round pick traded to Celtics (top-8 protected)

After finishing last season with a 22-60 record, the Grizzlies were no lock to take a major step forward in 2018/19. In the early going though, the club looks like a legitimate playoff contender. Assuming Memphis can remain in the postseason mix, even if it’s just on the outskirts, this pick should stay out of the top eight and get sent to Boston.

Sacramento Kings (6-5)
First-round pick traded to Sixers (if it’s No. 1 overall or if it’s less favorable than Sixers’ pick) or Celtics (if it’s more favorable than Sixers’ pick and isn’t No. 1 overall)

The Kings, who were expected to be one of the NBA’s worst teams entering the season, would generate some fascinating drama between the Sixers and Celtics if their pick ends up in play for No. 1 overall. However, Sacramento’s young roster has created more problems than anticipated for opponents so far, with the team occupying a playoff spot for now.

Despite the Kings’ hot start, a finish in the lottery still seems likely, but if Sacramento keeps exceeding expectations, the team’s first-round pick will almost certainly end up in Boston instead of Philadelphia, avoiding that No. 1 spot.

Los Angeles Clippers (6-5)
First-round pick traded to Celtics (top-14 protected)

This could be one to watch all season long — the Clippers currently hold a playoff spot in the West by one game, but teams like the Jazz, Lakers, Pelicans, and Rockets are right on their tail. If the Clips eventually fall out of the top eight in the West, they’ll keep their 2019 pick and would owe Boston their top-14 protected 2020 first-rounder. If L.A. keeps winning, the Celtics have a real shot at ending up with four first-rounders next spring.

Dallas Mavericks (3-8)
First-round pick traded to Hawks (top-5 protected)

After drafting NBA-ready prospect Luka Doncic and signing DeAndre Jordan, the Mavericks hoped to contend for the postseason and expected to lose this pick. Given the way Dallas has struggled so far, that no longer looks like a sure thing. I don’t view the Mavs as a bottom-five team in the NBA, but if they don’t turn things around soon, an aggressive second-half tank is a possibility. The Hawks would love for this pick to land in the back half of the top 10.

Cleveland Cavaliers (1-10)
First-round pick traded to Hawks (top-10 protected)

While Atlanta may luck out with the Mavs’ pick, the Hawks will probably have to wait at least one more year to get anything from the Cavaliers, who have the NBA’s worst record so far and aren’t exactly in position to turn things around. If the Cavs keep their 2019 first-rounder, they’ll owe the Hawks their top-10 protected 2020 pick.

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