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Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Originals: 10/20/18 – 10/27/18

October 27th, 2018 at 12:53pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, our writing team here at Hoops Rumors creates original content to complement our news feed. Below are the original segments and features from the past seven days, including an exclusive interview with an NBA veteran:

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Poll: Are Rockets Still West’s Second-Best Team?

October 26th, 2018 at 1:49pm CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets won an NBA-high 65 games in 2017/18, but despite placing ahead of the Warriors in the regular season, they were never able to supplant the defending champions for the title of the Western Conference’s best team, eventually losing to Golden State in the Western Finals.

Still, as the only club to seriously push the Warriors to the brink of elimination last season, Houston was the league’s clear-cut second-best team. And even though they lost key contributors like Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute over the summer, the Rockets entered 2018/19 widely viewed as the second-best team in the West again. When our writers made our predictions for the coming season, we all had Houston in the top two in the conference standings.

We’re only 10 days into the season and it’s too early to start panicking about the Rockets’ slow start, but nearly all the red flags raised during the club’s offseason have been on display so far. Carmelo Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams were considered unusual signings, and neither player has looked like an ideal fit in Houston through four games. The three-and-D abilities of Ariza and Mbah a Moute have been missed, with newcomers like James Ennis unable to replicate their production in the early going. As a result, the Rockets own a 1-3 record.

Now, again, there are plenty of reasons not to overreact to Houston’s start. The losses all came against tough Western teams – the Pelicans, Clippers, and Jazz – and Chris Paul missed two of those games due to a suspension. Plus, we expected it to take a little time for the Rockets’ newcomers to adjust. Nonetheless, as we debate the value of Houston’s reported trade offer for Jimmy Butler, it’s worth noting one reason why the team may be willing to surrender four first-round picks for Butler in the first place — they could really use him.

The Rockets’ perimeter defense has looked a little shaky with Ariza and Mbah a Moute no longer in the mix. And with Harden injured and Eric Gordon off to a slow start, another play-maker and 3-point shooter like Butler would really help open up the offense.

The Warriors are still the West’s No. 1 team until someone can beat them in the playoffs, but it looks like the No. 2 spot might be more wide open than we anticipated. The Timberwolves (2-3) and Thunder (0-4) have each also been a bit of a mess so far, and the Lakers (2-3) are still figuring things out, but the Pelicans (3-0) and Nuggets (4-1) have looked great, and the Trail Blazers (3-1) and Jazz (2-2) remain dangerous.

What do you think? Should we still consider the Rockets the second-best team in the West and be patient while they hit their stride, or is another club poised to knock them off that perch? Vote below and then head to the comment section to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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The Mechanics Of Offering Four First-Round Picks

October 26th, 2018 at 9:02am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets have made the Timberwolves a trade offer for Jimmy Butler that includes four first-round picks, according to a Thursday report. However, there’s still no indication that the Wolves are close to accepting that offer, or any others, per Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic (Twitter link).

While it may seem shocking that Minnesota would turn down an offer featuring so many first-rounders, it’s worth digging into the details on those picks to get a sense of when they might change hands and how high they might land. Various reports on Houston’s offer haven’t entirely filled in those gaps, but we can make a few deductions based on a pair of rules included in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The Stepien Rule:

As we explain in a glossary entry, this rule – named after former Cavaliers owner Ted Stepien – prevents teams from making trades that leave them without first-round picks in consecutive future years. A team that traded away its 2018 first-round pick can now trade away its 2019 first-rounder. However, if that team trades its 2019 first-round pick, it would be prohibited from trading away its 2020 first-rounder, unless it has acquired another team’s ’19 or ’20 pick.

This sounds a little complicated, but the upshot is that the Rockets couldn’t simply offer their 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 first-rounders to Minnesota — they’d have to spread them out more than that, to avoid leaving themselves without first-round picks in consecutive future seasons.

The Seven-Year Rule:

The other key restriction on traded draft picks is that teams can’t trade future selections more than seven years in advance. That means that during the 2018/19 league year, the latest pick a club could trade is a 2025 selection — the 2026 draft is eight years away.

When the Hawks reportedly offered four first-round picks to the Pacers for Paul George at the 2017 trade deadline, their situation was a little different. Because Atlanta had already acquired a handful of extra first-rounders, the club could have just sent Indiana four first-rounders from the 2017, 2018, and 2019 drafts and avoided violating the Stepien rule.

The Rockets, on the other hand, don’t have the luxury of having stockpiled extra draft picks. They only hold their own. So, in order to adhere to both the Stepien rule and the seven-year-rule, Houston only has one path to putting four first-rounders on the table — they’d have to offer their 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2025 picks.

Now, typically when a team trades away a first-round pick, that pick will include some sort of protection, and will roll over to the following year if it doesn’t convey. For example, the Cavaliers owe the Hawks their 2019 first-rounder, but it’s top-10 protected. If it lands in the top 10, Cleveland would instead owe Atlanta its 2020 first-round pick, which would once again be top-10 protected.

Due to the limitations imposed by the Stepien rule and the seven-year rule, it would be very tricky for the Rockets to include similar protections on the first-rounders they’re offering to Minnesota. That 2019 first-rounder couldn’t roll over to 2020 without impacting the traded 2021 pick, due to the Stepien rule, which in turn would create a domino effect on the rest of the picks.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that all four picks would be unprotected though. Let’s say that Houston, confident in its ability to be a contender for at least the next three years, made the 2019 and 2021 first-rounders unprotected, believing that they’ll fall in the mid- to late-20s. But maybe the Rockets are less confident about that 2023 pick. In theory, they could put protections on it like the Raptors put on the pick they traded to the Spurs in the DeMar DeRozan/Kawhi Leonard blockbuster this summer.

The Raptors’ first-round pick acquired by San Antonio in that trade is top-20 protected. If it lands in the top 20, the Spurs would instead receive a pair of second-round picks (2020 and 2023). Houston could do something similar with that 2023 first-rounder — maybe it could be top-10 protected, and would turn into 2023 and 2024 second-rounders if it lands in the top 10. The Rockets could perhaps take a similar approach with that 2025 pick, though the seven-year rule would be a hindrance.

We don’t know for sure that the Rockets are going that route, but a couple reports on their latest offer indicated that there are, at least, “limited” protections on the picks they offered. If that’s the case, it would reduce the chances of one or two of those first-rounders turning into a blue chip asset, like multiple Nets picks did in their infamous trade with the Celtics. That would reduce the appeal of the offer for Minnesota.

It’s also worth noting that the Rockets would still need to send out enough salary to take back Butler’s $20.45MM salary. An Eric Gordon/P.J. Tucker combination would work, but I’m skeptical that Houston would put those players on the table in an offer that also features four first-rounders — a willingness to surrender four picks suggests a win-now mentality, and Gordon and Tucker are two players that will help the Rockets win now.

Instead, the Rockets are believed to be offering a package of Brandon Knight ($14.63MM) and Marquese Chriss ($3.21MM). Those players, acquired from Phoenix on August 31, can be aggregated in a trade two months after that deal — so, anytime after next Wednesday.

Chriss still has some upside and his cap hit is modest, but Knight hasn’t played since 2016/17 due to injuries and has another guaranteed year on his contract beyond this season, reducing his value. Neither of those players would have the sort of immediate impact that Tom Thibodeau is seeking in a trade package for Butler.

Ultimately, while a Rockets offer that features four first-round picks sounds tantalizing on the surface, there are multiple variables that could diminish the actual value of the offer, and at least a couple of those first-rounders wouldn’t change hands for at least five years.

It’s unclear whether those 2023 and 2025 picks would sway GM Scott Layden and Thibodeau, who may not be a part of the Timberwolves organization by then. Perhaps owner Glen Taylor would be more tempted by the offer, but it’s worth considering that Taylor is 77 years old and has been waiting for years for his franchise to return to contention — he also may not be enthusiastic about the idea of counting on a player drafted in 2025.

The Timberwolves still have more than three months until this season’s trade deadline, so we’ll see if they remain patient or if this latest offer helps push the saga toward a resolution.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Poison Pill Provision

October 25th, 2018 at 3:52pm CST by Luke Adams

The poison pill provision isn’t technically a term that is defined in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, the concept of a “poison pill” has colloquially come to refer to a pair of NBA concepts.

The first of those concepts relates to the Gilbert Arenas Provision, which we’ve explained in a separate glossary entry. When a team uses the Arenas provision to sign an Early Bird restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that team can include a massive third-year raise that is often referred to as a “poison pill.”

Tyler Johnson‘s current deal with the Heat is one contract that fits this bill — the Nets included a third-year raise in their 2016 offer sheet, which Miami matched, so Johnson’s cap hit jumped from $5.88MM in the second year of his contract to $19.45MM in the third year.

However, the concept we’re focusing on today doesn’t involve Johnson, the Arenas provision, or RFA offer sheets. Instead, this second meaning of the “poison pill” relates to players who recently signed rookie scale extensions, something five players did in 2018.

The “poison pill provision” arises if a team extends a player’s rookie scale contract, then trades him before the extension officially takes effect. It’s a rare situation, but it features its own set of rules, since extensions following rookie contracts often create a large gap between a player’s current and future salaries.

For salary-matching purposes, if a player is traded between the time his rookie contract is extended and the following July 1 (when that extension takes effect), the player’s incoming value for the receiving team is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary in each year of his extension. His current team, on the other hand, simply treats his current-year salary as the outgoing figure for matching purposes.

Let’s use Larry Nance Jr. as an example. Nance signed a four-year, $44.8MM rookie scale extension with the Cavaliers this year, which locks him up through the 2022/23 season. However, he’s only only the books for $2,272,391 in 2018/19.

If the Cavs were to abruptly change course on Nance and decided to trade him this season, the poison pill provision would complicate their efforts. From Cleveland’s perspective, Nance’s current-year cap hit ($2,272,391) would represent his outgoing salary for matching purposes. However, any team acquiring Nance would have to view his incoming value as $9,414,478 — that’s the annual average of the five years and $47,072,391 he has left when accounting for both his new and old contracts.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the traded player exception, NBA rules dictate that over-the-cap teams must send and receive approximately the same amount of salary in any trade. So applying the poison pill provision to a player like Nance and creating a $7MM+ discrepancy between how two trade partners account for him would make salary-matching far more difficult than usual.

Trades involving a player who recently signed a rookie scale extension are already rare. After all, those players are generally young, and a player who signed an extension is promising enough to have warranted a long-term investment. Those aren’t the type of players that teams typically trade. The poison poll provision further disincentivizes a deal involving one of those recently-extended players by complicating salary-matching rules, making those trades even rarer.

In other words, it’s probably a safe bet that we won’t see any of this year’s rookie scale extension recipients – Nance, Devin Booker (Suns), Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves), Justise Winslow (Heat), and Myles Turner (Pacers) – traded before June 30.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

An earlier versions of this post was published in 2012 by Luke Adams.

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Hardship Provision May Be In Play For Bulls

October 25th, 2018 at 2:47pm CST by Luke Adams

Just four games into their season, the Bulls are now missing four key contributors due to injuries, with Bobby Portis and his sprained MCL joining Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, and Denzel Valentine on the sidelines. With early-season health issues wreaking havoc on Fred Hoiberg‘s starting lineup and rotation, Chicago may get an opportunity to add a player to its roster next week by qualifying for the NBA’s “hardship provision.”

NBA teams can become eligible for a hardship exception when they have at least four players who have missed three consecutive games due to injury or illness, assuming those players are expected to remain sidelined for at least two more weeks.

The Bulls wouldn’t be able to apply for the exception until after Monday’s game in Golden State, at which point Portis will have missed three straight games. Markkanen, Dunn, and Portis all seem very likely to miss at least a couple weeks beyond that, and it’s possible Valentine will too. If so, Chicago would qualify for the exception.

If the Bulls apply for and receive a hardship exception, they wouldn’t gain any extra cap flexibility, but they’d be temporarily granted an extra roster spot. In that scenario, the team could sign a 16th player to its “15-man” NBA roster without waiving anyone.

Again, that roster spot would be temporary, and the Bulls would have to cut that player – or someone else – once they started to get healthier, but the provision could help provide the injury-ravaged squad with a little more depth in the short term.

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Poll: Kyrie Irving’s Future

October 25th, 2018 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

Kyrie Irving is one of several big-name players projected to reach unrestricted free agency during the summer of 2019, but it appears his free agency will be a mere formality. During the preseason, Irving announced to an arena of Celtics fans that he intends to re-sign with Boston next July. According to reports, the star point guard has privately conveyed a similar sentiment to C’s management.

Despite Irving’s proclamation, executives around the NBA still have Irving’s name on their free agent big boards for 2019, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported earlier this week. Windhorst notes that verbal commitments are just that, and that they don’t come with any guarantees — there’s nothing stopping Irving from changing his mind between now and July 1.

While that’s true, it undersells the explicit and public nature of the commitment Irving made this fall. Typically, when free-agents-to-be are asked about their futures, their answers are evasive. Some refuse to address the subject at all, telling reporters that they’re focused on the season or that they’ll let their agents handle the business side. Others express interest in re-signing with their current teams, but add a caveat or two — they “know it’s a business” or they “hope the team feels the same way” or they’ll “see what happens.”

In Irving’s case, his declaration didn’t leave any ambiguity: He intends to re-sign with the Celtics, and is only waiting to do so because signing an extension now wouldn’t make sense from a financial perspective. It’s the sort of vow that we rarely hear from top free agents, many of whom prefer to keep their options open and don’t want to risk angering a fan base by making a promise they might not keep.

Still, we’re more than eight months away from July. If the Celtics struggle to meet expectations this season, will Irving be as enthusiastic about signing a long-term deal next offseason? If he suffers another knee injury, will the C’s be eager to put a massive multiyear off on the table? While Boston certainly wants to keep Irving, the team hasn’t made any promises of its own. It’s possible that the situation could change significantly in the coming months.

In my opinion, it would be very surprising if Irving and the Celtics don’t eventually finalize a new deal. However, it can’t be considered a total lock until he puts pen to paper next July.

What do you think? Does it make sense to essentially cross off Irving’s name from 2019’s list of free agents, or will he and/or the team have second thoughts within the next eight months?

Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Central Division

October 25th, 2018 at 11:36am CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2018/19 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

No team in the NBA’s Central division has played more than five games so far – the Pistons have only played three – but based on contract situations and early-season rotations, some potential trade candidates are already emerging. Let’s take a look at a few of them…

Kyle Korver, G/F
Cleveland Cavaliers
$7.56MM cap hit; partially guaranteed salary in 2019/20

A fixture in the Cavaliers‘ rotation over the last year and a half alongside LeBron James, Korver has seen inconsistent playing time so far in 2018/19. His minutes count in his first four games: 14, 5, 0, and 19.

Korver has said he doesn’t mind sporadic minutes, and it’s too early in the season for the Cavs to go into tank mode and start considering a full-fledged fire sale. Still, there are a number of reasons to expect the 37-year-old to become a trade candidate sooner or later if Cleveland’s struggles continue.

Several playoff contenders figure to be in the market for an outside marksman, and few are more reliable than Korver, who has a .431 career 3PT%. His salary is affordable and his contract is favorable for a short-term investment — next season’s $7.5MM salary is only guaranteed for $3.44MM, meaning any team acquiring him would have the option to keep him for one more year or to cut bait at a minimal cost.

Robin Lopez, C
Chicago Bulls
$14.36MM cap hit; UFA in 2019

Like the Cavaliers, the Bulls don’t look like a legit postseason contender, particularly as the injuries to several key players continue to pile up. It’s too early to give up on this season’s playoff hopes yet, but when that happens, Lopez looks like one of the team’s most obvious trade chips.

The Bulls have Wendell Carter Jr. penciled in as their center of the future, and still need to see what they can get out of Cristiano Felicio, whose pricey contract runs through 2021. For now, Lopez remains a part of the rotation, but his minutes are down (17.7 MPG so far, compared to 26.4 last season) and they may decrease further if and when the club goes all-in on developing its young players.

Lopez is no bargain at $14.36MM, but he’s on an expiring contract and won’t affect a team’s cap flexibility for the summer of 2019. He’s also still just 30 years old and has value as a reliable screen setter and defensive presence.

Matthew Dellavedova, G
Milwaukee Bucks
$9.61MM cap hit; guaranteed salary in 2019/20

If the 4-0 Bucks can build on their hot start, they’ll likely be in the market for upgrades by the time February’s trade deadline rolls around. Dellavedova and John Henson ($11.33MM cap hit) represent the club’s best salary-matching pieces, and Dellavedova’s absence from the rotation makes him the more expendable player of the two.

With one more guaranteed season left on his contract, the veteran guard is a negative asset at this point. But if Milwaukee is willing to attach a draft pick or a young player to Dellavedova’s contract, he could be a part of an offer for a veteran who might better fit the club’s lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Bulls Surrendered Potential Trade Chip By Waiving Asik

October 24th, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Veteran center Omer Asik, acquired in last season’s Nikola Mirotic with the Pelicans as a salary-matching piece, was unlikely to play at all this season for the Bulls. Still, Chicago’s decision to release him over the weekend in order to sign Shaquille Harrison was “stunning” to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders (Twitter link), who referred to Asik’s contract one of the best trade pieces in the league.

[RELATED: Bulls sign Shaquille Harrison, cut Omer Asik]

Of course, Asik didn’t have trade value in the way that star players have trade value, but his contract was an intriguing potential trade chip for a couple reasons: It was signed under the league’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, and he was owed a partial guarantee of just $3MM on his $11.98MM salary for 2019/20.

Under the league’s new CBA, a team trading a player with an $11.98MM salary with a $3MM partial guarantee would only get to count that contract for $3MM for salary-matching purposes, limiting its appeal in a potential deal. However, if that same contract was signed under the old CBA – like Asik’s – it counts for its full $11.98MM for salary-matching purposes. That would have made it appealing to teams looking to cut costs during the summer of 2019.

For instance, let’s say that the Knicks wanted to make a run at Kevin Durant in the summer of 2019 and needed to move as much salary as possible to clear a maximum-salary slot. Cap rules would have allowed Chicago and New York to swap Courtney Lee (who has a $12.76MM salary for 2019/20) straight up for Asik. The Knicks then could’ve waived Asik, stretching his $3MM partial guarantee across three years and leaving just $1MM on their cap.

The Bulls might not have wanted Lee, and more parts may have been required to make such a deal acceptable for both sides, but that’s just one example of how Asik’s modest partial guarantee – and his old contract – provided some value. That $11.98MM cap hit could be useful for salary matching in all variations of trades and wasn’t a negative asset since it wasn’t guaranteed.

By comparison, a player like Avery Bradley has a contract structure similar to Asik’s for next season ($2MM partial guarantee on a $12.96MM salary), but signed his deal under the league’s current CBA. If the Clippers wanted to trade Bradley after the season, he’d only count for $2MM for salary-matching purposes rather than $12.96MM, making a deal tricky.

It’s possible that Chicago wouldn’t have found any use for Asik on the trade market next summer, especially since the team may be far enough below the cap to take on contracts in trades without matching salaries. Harrison will also certainly help the club more in the short term, and the Bulls may eventually be able to remove Asik’s contract from their cap altogether if he’s deemed medically ineligible to continue his career. Still, it’s somewhat surprising that the team didn’t wait a little longer before deciding to cut bait on him.

With Asik no longer under contract, there are just two notable players who signed contracts under the old CBA and have partial guarantees for next season — one is Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith ($3.87MM guarantee on $15.86MM salary) and the other is Suns forward Ryan Anderson ($15.64MM guarantee on $21.26MM salary). If either of those players is dealt during the summer of 2019, he’d count for his full salary for trade purposes, rather than just his guarantee amount.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Which Team Will Stay Undefeated Longest?

October 24th, 2018 at 2:16pm CST by Luke Adams

Eight days into the NBA season, 25 teams have lost at least one game, leaving just five clubs unscathed. In the Eastern Conference, the Raptors (4-0), Bucks (3-0), and Pistons (3-0) remain undefeated, while, the Nuggets (4-0) and Pelicans (3-0) have yet to lose in the West.

All five of those teams were expected to be, at the very least, playoff contenders in 2018/19, but they’ve still exceeded expectations to some extent in the early part of the season.

The Raptors, Bucks, and Pistons all entered the season with new head coaches in place, but there has been no learning curve for those coaches so far. Kawhi Leonard and Blake Griffin have played like their old selves after battling injuries last season, helping Toronto and Detroit get off to fast starts, while Mike Budenholzer‘s offense in Milwaukee has the Bucks looking like a new team.

In the West, we knew that the Nuggets would be terrific on offense, but they’ve been better than advertised on the defensive end of the court, and that has played a big part in their hot start. As for the Pelicans, they still look like the team that made quick work of Portland in the first round of the playoffs last season, having not skipped a beat after losing Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins in free agency.

Here are the upcoming schedules for the NBA’s five remaining undefeated teams:

  • Toronto Raptors: vs. Min (10/24), vs. Dal (10/26), at Mil (10/29), vs. Phi (10/30), at Phx (11/2)
  • Milwaukee Bucks: vs. Phi (10/24), at Min (10/26), vs. Orl (10/27), vs. Tor (10/29), at Bos (11/1)
  • Detroit Pistons: vs. Cle (10/25), vs. Bos (10/27), at Bos (10/30), at Bkn (10/31), at Phi (11/3)
  • Denver Nuggets: at LAL (10/25), vs. NOP (10/29), at Chi (10/31), at Cle (11/1), vs. Uta (11/3)
  • New Orleans Pelicans: vs. Bkn (10/26), vs. Uta (10/27), at Den (10/29), at GSW (10/31), at Por (11/1)

All five clubs have tough matchups on tap, including some with each other — next Monday night should be especially interesting, as the Bucks host the Raptors while the Pelicans visit the Nuggets.

Based on what you’ve seen so far, as well as each team’s upcoming schedules, we want to know which team you believe will be the NBA’s last undefeated squad. Will it be the Raptors, Bucks, Pistons, Nuggets, or Pelicans that stays out of the loss column for the longest?

After placing your vote, head to the comment section below to weigh in on how long you expect each of these teams to keep winning and whether their hot starts have changed your views on them at all.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Community Shootaround: NBA’s Scoring Increase

October 24th, 2018 at 12:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Eight days into the 2018/19 regular season, it’s hard to draw many conclusions about teams’ win-loss records, but a broader NBA-wide trend has raised eyebrows around the league. As Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press writes, scoring is up so far this season — way up.

Here are a few stats, via Reynolds, that help illustrate the NBA’s scoring increase:

  • NBA teams are averaging 113.4 points per game, the highest rate in nearly 50 years. Last season, teams averaged 106.3 PPG, which was the highest mark since 1990/91.
  • NBA teams are on pace to break the records for made 3-pointers per game (11.3 so far) and 3-point attempts per game (31.6) for the seventh straight year.
  • Teams have reached the 100-point mark 88.2% of the time so far. As recently as 2014/15, teams reached 100 points 51.5% of the time.
  • The Timberwolves scored 136 points in a non-overtime game and lost, the first time that has happened since 1992.
  • The Lakers are averaging 125.3 PPG (second in the NBA) and have yet to win a game.

While it’s possible that these numbers will regress a little as defenses tighten up and the season wears on, there are a number of reasons to believe the league’s scoring increase is here to stay.

For one, teams are playing faster than they have in several decades, and more possessions per game result in more points per game. Per Basketball-Reference’s data, the average possessions per 48 minutes is up to 101.8 this season. By comparison, it was 97.3 last season, and 91.3 as recently as 2011/12. The league hasn’t played at its current pace since 1985/86.

According to Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com, heading into Monday night’s games, two-thirds of the league’s teams were averaging more possessions per game than the 2017/18 Pelicans, who led the NBA in pace last season.

Minor rule changes, such as resetting the shot clock to 14 seconds instead of 24 seconds after offensive rebounds, have also contributed to the league’s increased scoring and pace, though it’s another rule change that has made a bigger impact.

As Reynolds details, the NBA’s officials are emphasizing “freedom of movement” this season, which means they’re being less forgiving of defenders who are grabbing, holding, or bumping offensive players to hinder cuts and other moves. Fouls per game are up from 19.9 last season to 23.1 this year, partly as a result of those tighter calls.

According to Sam Amico of AmicoHoops.net and J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star, many NBA coaches and executives aren’t fans of that emphasis on “freedom of movement,” arguing that it makes it virtually impossible to play strong defense. Still, as Reynolds notes, despite a modest league-wide increase in free throws attempted and made, those extra fouls aren’t nearly enough to account for the spike in scoring on their own — they’re just part of the equation.

What do you think of the offensive explosion we’ve seen during the first week of the NBA season? Do you expect this scoring surge to continue, or is it an early-season aberration? If it keeps up, is it good for the league, or would you like to see the NBA take steps to help out defenses and limit the number of shootouts we see on a given night?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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