Daryl Morey‘s plan to knock off the Warriors just about worked. Up 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets were faced with the challenge of winning one more game without star point guard Chris Paul in their lineup. Houston couldn’t pull it off, losing Game 6 in Oakland, then suffering through one of the worst shooting slumps in NBA history at home in Game 7.
While it may be tempting to view the series’ result – and the Warriors’ eventual title victory – as an inevitability, no NBA team in the last two years has pushed Golden State like the Rockets did, which is a sign that Houston is on the right track. Now, Morey and the front office will have to ensure they remain on that track, with several important players eligible for free agency this offseason.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will Chris Paul and Clint Capela return?
Paul and Capela are two of the top seven or eight free agents available this offseason, and the Rockets could be in trouble if they fail to re-sign either one.
Paul’s impact is obvious. The veteran play-maker took the pressure off James Harden in 2017/18, sharing the ball-handling load when they played alongside each other and running the offense when Harden was on the bench. When the Rockets acquired him from the Clippers last year, CP3 had to opt into the final year of his previous contract rather than signing a new one, but there appeared to be a tacit understanding that he’d get a lucrative, long-term deal from Houston in 2018. That still seems like the probable outcome, and it would be a shock if he left at this point.
As for Capela, he has no All-Star appearances or All-NBA nods to his name, but the 24-year-old’s gradual improvement has made him an important part of this roster. He averaged a double-double (13.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG) in 2017/18, leading the NBA in FG% (.652) and anchoring Houston’s defense (1.9 BPG). While Capela doesn’t stretch the floor like some of the league’s elite young bigs, he does pretty much everything else you’d want from a center, effectively setting screens, finishing at the rim, and protecting the rim on the other end of the court.
Assuming Paul re-signs, the Rockets wouldn’t have any cap room to go out and make another impact signing, so bringing back Capela looks like the club’s best bet for staying strong at the five. The Rockets will just have to hope they aren’t faced with matching a massive offer sheet for Capela, who would be a much safer investment at $15-20MM per year than at $25MM annually.
2. Will Trevor Ariza re-sign with the Rockets?
Although Paul and Capela will be Houston’s top priorities in free agency, Ariza’s positive impact shouldn’t be overlooked, Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals notwithstanding. Up until that last game against the Warriors, Ariza had been a reliable three-and-D mainstay in the Rockets’ rotation all year long, making 36.8% of his three-point attempts during the regular season.
Players like Ariza and P.J. Tucker – who can hit corner threes and match up on defense with dangerous wing scorers – are crucial to Houston’s success, particularly against Golden State, so I expect the Rockets to make a strong effort to retain Ariza.
Ariza’s free agency reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala‘s a year ago. When Iguodala reached the open market, rival suitors – who recognized that poaching Iggy from the Warriors was the most viable way to hurt the defending champs – were aggressive in pursuing him. The Dubs ultimately won the bidding, but it cost them much more (three years, $48MM) than they would have liked to bring back Iguodala.
Teams in direct competition with the Rockets and in need of three-and-D wings could take a similar approach to Ariza’s free agency this summer, which is why a report suggesting the veteran forward is hoping for a $50-60MM payday isn’t as outrageous as it might seem.
While Ariza may not quite get that high, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he receives an offer worth $30MM+ or $40MM+. If he does, the Rockets will have to make a tough decision on whether he’s worth the investment or whether they can get similar production from more affordable players like Luc Mbah a Moute (who will also be a free agent).