Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Philadelphia 76ers

June 20th, 2018 at 12:48pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2017/18 season was essentially a best-case scenario for the Sixers and true believers in “The Process.” Former top picks Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons stayed healthy and established themselves as bona-fide NBA stars, and despite getting virtually nothing from 2017’s No. 1 selection Markelle Fultz, the Sixers piled up 52 wins, earned the No. 3 seed in the East, and advanced to the second round of the playoffs.

Fultz’s lost rookie season is somewhat concerning, and it’s not clear if Philadelphia is quite out of the woods yet when it comes to Embiid’s health, but this is a team on the rise. With another lottery pick at their disposal in 2018, along with a significant chunk of cap room, the Sixers are also better positioned than just about any other contender to make another major addition or two to their roster this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Sixers be able to lure a top free agent to Philadelphia?

With a playmaking point guard (Simmons) and a big man who can knock down outside shots and protect the rim (Embiid), the Sixers have two key cornerstone pieces in place. Using this summer’s cap flexibility, the club should now make it a priority to add a wing with size who can stretch the floor. Fortunately, two of 2018’s top free agents – LeBron James and Paul George – fit that bill.

If he wants to continue his streak of NBA Finals appearances and add more titles to his résumé, Philadelphia is a logical landing spot for James. The club should be able to create enough cap space to sign him outright, meaning there would be no need to give up valuable assets to acquire him in a trade. On top of that, this is a team that already had enough talent to win 52 games and a playoff series. Adding LeBron to the mix would create a force to be reckoned with in the East.

Still, as silly as it feels to play devil’s advocate to the idea of signing the best player in the NBA, I can’t help but wonder if George makes more sense as a target for the 76ers. Embiid and Simmons put their mark in the franchise in 2017/18, establishing the Sixers as their team. They’re still on the rise and have the potential to be the top two players on a championship club someday — having them take a back seat to LeBron might create some chemistry issues both on the court and off it.

Of course, if LeBron wants to join the Sixers, I don’t expect the team to turn him down, and I’m sure it’d be a fine fit in the long run. But if landing James is the club’s No. 1 offseason priority, George makes for an intriguing 1A. His stints in Indiana and Oklahoma City have shown that he may be more comfortable when he’s not a club’s go-to option, and he’s exactly the sort of player any contending team would love to have as a second or third scoring option and a lock-down defender on the wing.

2. What’s the best route to maximum-salary cap room for the Sixers?

Whether they pursue James, George, another impact free agent, or all of the above, the Sixers will probably need to create a little more cap room than they currently have available. Our estimate currently has them about $25MM under the cap, assuming they keep their nine players on guaranteed contracts, along with T.J. McConnell, Richaun Holmes, and their two first-round picks.

Based on a $101MM salary cap projection for 2018/19, the Sixers would have to get to $30.3MM in room for a maximum-salary deal for George or another free agent with 7-9 years of NBA experience. For James or another player with 10+ years of experience, $35.35MM in cap room would be required.

The 76ers can actually get to $30.3MM+ in cap room pretty painlessly without even having to get another team involved. Using their No. 26 pick on a draft-and-stash prospect and waiving and stretching Bayless’ expiring contract would do the trick.

However, in order to get to $35MM+ in space, attaching that late first-round pick to Bayless in a trade would be the preferred option. If the Sixers were to package Bayless and the No. 26 pick in a trade without taking back any salary in return, the club could then create enough room for a $35.35MM offer by waiving one of Holmes or McConnell.

With plenty of appealing assets under team control, there are other paths Philadelphia could take to open up cap room. If a marquee free agent targeted by the Sixers wants to sign with the team, the front office will find a way to make it happen.

3. What’s Plan B for the Sixers?

If James and George return to their current teams or team up on the Lakers, which direction will the Sixers go? There are other free agents out there who could fit nicely on the roster, but Philadelphia should avoid investing long-term money in a second- or third-tier target just because that money is available.

The Sixers still have enough future cap flexibility that they can afford to look to 2019’s free agent period as a backup plan. Preserving as much cap room as possible for ’19 would mean taking a similar approach this offseason to the one they took last year, when they signed veterans like J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson to lucrative one-year contracts. Now that the 76ers have had some real success, there are probably plenty of useful rotation players who would sign on for that sort of deal — I’d expect Redick to be one of them.

Philadelphia could also take advantage of its cap flexibility on the trade market. Kawhi Leonard looks like a prime target for the Sixers, who could structure an offer to the Spurs in a number of ways. Because the Sixers have excess cap room, they wouldn’t necessarily have to match Leonard’s salary, meaning they could put together a package heavy on draft picks and light on players. Alternately, if San Antonio asks for a couple players from the Fultz/Robert Covington/Dario Saric group, the Sixers could add Bayless to the package and make a play for Leonard while retaining their cap space for an impact free agent or two.

4. What will the Sixers do with the No. 10 pick?

The Sixers could use the No. 10 pick as a centerpiece in a trade offer for a player like Leonard. They could also package it with other assets in an effort to move even higher in the draft, as has been rumored. But let’s assume they stay put and pick a player at No. 10. Who are the best bets to become Sixers in that scenario?

Villanova’s Mikal Bridges has been a popular target for the Sixers in mock drafts for several weeks, and there’s reportedly strong mutual interest between the two sides. A three-and-D wing, Bridges would be an ideal fit in Philadelphia, and the fact that he’s a local product is just a bonus.

Kevin Knox is another interesting option for the Sixers at No. 10, assuming he’s still on the board. Like Bridges, Knox has shown the ability to knock down open shots and defend multiple positions. While his floor may be lower than Bridges’, Knox could have the higher ceiling — there’s a belief that he still has plenty of room to grow.

Drafting a point guard with their lottery selection after using the No. 1 overall pick to address that spot in back-to-back years seems unlikely for the Sixers, which reduces the odds of the club nabbing a player like Collin Sexton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Trae Young. If they do look at that group, Young might be the best fit alongside Simmons and Fultz, given his upside as a three-point shooter. He made 118 threes in just 32 games for Oklahoma last season. Gilgeous-Alexander’s versatility could also appeal to the 76ers.

5. How will not having a permanent general manager impact the Sixers’ offseason?

In one of the most bizarre NBA stories in recent years, 76ers president of basketball operations and GM Bryan Colangelo was dismissed by the team earlier this month after investigators confirmed that his wife had been operating “burner” Twitter accounts that criticized Sixers players and disclosed sensitive information about the franchise.

With Colangelo out of the picture, head coach Brett Brown is running the team’s basketball operations department on an interim basis. VP of player personnel Marc Eversley and VP of basketball operations Ned Cohen will play significant roles too.

The upheaval in the front office shouldn’t affect the Sixers’ draft plans, as the team’s board was likely all but set several weeks before June 21. But it will be interesting to see how eager or reluctant Philadelphia is to pull the trigger on major free agent signings or trades this summer. The time is ripe for the Sixers to complete a significant roster move or two, and I don’t expect the club to take a quiet, conservative approach to the offseason while it waits for ownership to bring in a new GM.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Sixers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Joel Embiid ($25,250,000)¹
Robert Covington ($10,464,092)
Jerryd Bayless ($8,575,916)
Markelle Fultz ($8,339,880)
Ben Simmons ($6,434,520)
Dario Saric ($2,526,840)
Justin Anderson ($2,516,048)
Furkan Korkmaz ($1,740,000)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($1,544,951)
Total: $67,392,247

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Richaun Holmes ($1,600,520)
T.J. McConnell ($1,600,520)
Total: $3,201,040

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

J.J. Redick ($27,600,000): Non-Bird rights
Amir Johnson ($13,200,000): Non-Bird rights
No. 10 overall pick ($3,522,533)
Anzejs Pasecniks ($1,746,957)²
No. 26 overall pick ($1,689,080)
Marco Belinelli ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Ersan Ilyasova ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $50,757,966

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $25,195,100

Our cap projection for the Sixers includes their nine guaranteed contracts, non-guaranteed salaries for Holmes and McConnell, and the cap holds for their two first-round picks. That cap projection, which adds up to a total team salary of $75,804,900, involves renouncing all their own free agents, including Redick.

Footnotes:

Embiid will have a maximum salary worth 25% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
Pasecniks was the Sixers’ 25th overall pick in 2017, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 25 pick. That cap hold will be removed if it’s officially determined that Pasecniks won’t sign with the Sixers for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 20th, 2018 at 8:06am CST by Luke Adams

No team has had a more dramatic 2017/18 league year than the Cavaliers, who dealt with Kyrie Irving‘s trade request last offseason, underwent multiple roster overhauls, improbably made it back to the NBA Finals, and are now facing the prospect of losing LeBron James — again.

The Cavaliers’ comeback in the 2016 NBA Finals to erase a 3-1 deficit and knock off the 73-win Warriors earned James the right to leave on better terms this time around than he did in 2010, but the club would still prefer to have him stick around a little longer. His decision will ultimately be the catalyst that determines which direction the Cavs will go for the next several years.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. So… what’s LeBron going to do?

The two best players in the NBA are eligible for free agency this summer, but Kevin Durant is a lock to re-sign with the Warriors, making LeBron’s decision the offseason’s most important subplot. At this point, his options have been discussed ad nauseam. The Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Spurs, Heat, and even the Warriors look like potential threats to the Cavs, and that’s not taking into account any potential wild-card suitors that arise during his decision-making process.

I’ve already written at length about the various factors that will play a role in James’ decision, but even after endless speculation, it doesn’t feel like we’re any closer to figuring out where he’ll end up. Every potential landing spot has its pros and cons, which could work in Cleveland’s favor, forcing the future Hall-of-Famer to seriously consider the possibility of simply sticking with the Cavs rather than leaving for any number of imperfect options.

Still, it would be somewhat surprising if James re-upped with the Cavs. He accomplished what he set out to to do when he returned to the franchise in 2014, winning a title for his hometown team. From an on-court perspective, there are better opportunities out there for him. From a marketing and lifestyle perspective, moving to a bigger market like Los Angeles would make sense. It just seems like there’s too much working against the Cavs.

That doesn’t mean that a return to Cleveland is out of the question, but if I had to bet on James starting the 2018/19 season with either the Cavs or one of the NBA’s other 29 teams, I’d take the field.

2. What should the Cavaliers do with the No. 8 pick?

While it’s possible that James will no longer be a Cavalier at this time next month, the team can’t approach the offseason as if he’s already gone. By all accounts, LeBron has yet to make a final decision, so the Cavs’ moves in the next week or two could push him in one direction or the other.

That puts the Cavs in an incredibly tough spot with their lottery pick. If the club knew James would leave, it would make sense for the front office to target the player with the highest long-term ceiling at No. 8, in the hopes of identifying a franchise player for the post-LeBron era. With no assurances one way or the other, Cleveland will have to straddle the fence, finding a player who could play alongside James or who could develop and thrive on a new-look Cavs roster.

Of course, if the Cavs really want to make a strong pitch to James, packaging the No. 8 pick in a deal for another star would represent the all-in approach. Even if the club could find a workable trade for someone like Kemba Walker or Kawhi Leonard though, it would provide no guarantees on the LeBron front. Both Walker and Leonard are eligible for free agency in 2019 and aren’t well positioned to sign extensions before then, so it’s unlikely that acquiring one of them would prompt James to commit to more than one extra year in Cleveland.

Ultimately, the Cavs probably need to take the best player available at No. 8, regardless of that player’s fit, his ability to make an immediate impact, or his appeal to trade partners. If need be, the front office could always shop that player in July after finding out what James plans to do.

3. What would the roster look like if James returns?

Let’s assume that James announces he’ll stick with the Cavs, either opting into the final year of his contract or signing a longer-term pact. What could we reasonably expect the Cavs’ roster to look like in 2018/19?

General manager Koby Altman has already shown a willingness to make major changes to the roster on the fly during his first year on the job, and I imagine he’d look to take more big swings this offseason. The roster that finished the 2018/19 season probably isn’t going to knock off the Warriors anytime soon, but there are plenty of salvageable assets under team control.

George Hill and J.R. Smith will essentially be on expiring deals, given their limited guarantees in 2019/20, which could make them trade chips, albeit ones who would be used primarily for salary matching rather than ones who would have positive value. Love’s trade value should be higher, even if it’s not what it once was, and the Cavs would probably make an effort to flip him for an impact wing or center who would help fortify the defense.

This year’s No. 8 pick is the team’s best trade chip and could be a sweetener in any major deal. The Cavs don’t have their 2019 first-round pick, but could make their 2021 or 2023 first-rounders available if they get really aggressive. The club would probably like to keep young players like Larry Nance and Cedi Osman, but Ante Zizic could be another trade piece.

What would the end result ultimately look like? Maybe the Cavs could trade Hill, Smith, and the No. 8 pick for Walker and Nicolas Batum. Maybe they could move Love in a deal for a wing like Otto Porter or a center like DeAndre Jordan. A series of roster moves along those lines might make the team more interesting, but it’s not clear how much it would improve Cleveland’s ceiling.

4. What would the roster look like if James leaves?

Considering what the Cavs’ roster might look like without LeBron is fascinating. The front office has conveyed a desire to avoid a full-fledged rebuild, but the roster isn’t exactly packed with long-term building blocks. At the very least, the Cavs would probably have to undergo a retooling period, which would likely start with exploring the trade market for Love in an effort to acquire young players or draft picks.

The makeup of the Cavs’ roster without James would also hinge on how exactly he leaves Cleveland. If he decides he wants to join a team without the cap room necessary to sign him outright, a sign-and-trade deal is one possibility. Exercising his 2018/19 player option to clear the way for a standard trade is another. Either route could net the Cavs some assets, but they shouldn’t feel obliged to go out of their way to accommodate LeBron’s new team.

Losing LeBron for nothing would hurt, but the Cavs would at least move well below the tax line in that scenario, avoiding the league’s punitive repeater tax penalties. In any trade involving James, owner Dan Gilbert would have no interest in taking back overpriced, unwanted pieces that would push Cleveland back over that tax line, even if those pieces could help the Cavs return to the playoffs next season.

Despite having multiple overpriced veterans on their books at the moment, the Cavs actually have significant flexibility in the long term — currently, the club doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on its 2020/21 cap. If James leaves, the team will want to maintain that flexibility, only making long-term commitments if the investments are sound.

5. Will the Cavaliers sign Larry Nance Jr. to an extension?

Speaking of long-term investments, the Cavs have decisions to make on two young players this offseason, with Rodney Hood eligible for restricted free agency and Nance up for a rookie scale extension.

While I expect Cleveland to give Hood a qualifying offer, I’d be a little surprised if the club negotiates a new multiyear deal for him– the fourth-year shooting guard didn’t provide the sort of consistent scoring punch the Cavs were looking for after coming over from Utah at the trade deadline. If he doesn’t receive any great offers from rival teams, it’s possible Hood returns on a team-friendly contract, but otherwise I think the Cavs will let him move on.

Nance’s case is a more interesting one to monitor, even though he’ll remain under contract for next season whether or not the Cavs extend him this offseason. The team and player reportedly have mutual interest in a new agreement, and the timing could work out well for Cleveland — by the time a Nance extension would take effect, Love, Hill, and Smith could all be essentially off the Cavs’ cap, freeing up a ton of space.

The Cavs surrendered a first-round pick and took on Jordan Clarkson‘s contract in order to acquire Nance earlier this year. I’d expect the club to do all it can to lock him up at a reasonable rate in the coming months, perhaps making him the first player to receive a guarantee from the Cavs beyond 2020.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Cavaliers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kevin Love ($24,119,025)
George Hill ($19,000,000)
Tristan Thompson ($17,469,565)
J.R. Smith ($14,720,000)
Jordan Clarkson ($12,500,000)
Kyle Korver ($7,560,000)
Cedi Osman ($2,775,000)
Larry Nance Jr. ($2,272,391)
Ante Zizic ($1,952,760)
Total: $102,368,741

Player Options

LeBron James ($35,607,968)
Total: $35,607,968

Team Options

Kendrick Perkins ($2,445,085)
Total: $2,445,085

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Okaro White ($1,544,951)¹
Total: $1,544,951

Restricted Free Agents

Rodney Hood ($3,472,887 qualifying offer / $7,160,592 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $7,160,592

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 8 overall pick ($4,033,884)
Jose Calderon ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Dahntay Jones ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
James Jones ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Jeff Green ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Shawn Marion ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Deron Williams ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $13,032,072

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even without taking James into consideration, the Cavaliers have $102MM+ in guaranteed salaries, nudging them over the projected $101MM cap. As such, there’s virtually no chance Cleveland will have cap room this summer.

Footnotes:

White’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors’ 2018 NBA Mock Draft

June 19th, 2018 at 2:55pm CST by Hoops Rumors

With the 2018 NBA draft just two days away, it’s time to reveal Hoops Rumors’ own mock draft. Arthur Hill and Chris Crouse of Hoops Rumors have tackled the 2018 first round, alternating picks and providing their thoughts and rationale for each selection.

Our mock draft isn’t necessarily a reflection of what we think will happen on Thursday night, but rather what Arthur and Chris feel each team should do with the 30 first-round picks. Our draft also doesn’t include trades, so a busy week on the trade market could significantly alter our projected order.

After checking out our picks, be sure to head to the comments section to weigh in with your own thoughts, opinions, and predictions.

Let’s dive in…

1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C (Arizona)

Arthur Hill: The Suns, who entered the offseason hoping to find an answer at center, got lucky in the lottery and won the chance to draft Ayton. He was a difference maker in college at both ends of the court, though scouts believe his offense is ahead of his defense at the NBA level. He and Devin Booker should be an exciting combination for many years to come.

2. Sacramento Kings: Michael Porter Jr., F (Missouri)

Chris Crouse: The Kings are reportedly seriously considering Porter Jr. and it’s easy to see why. The versatile forward may be the draft’s biggest risk/reward prospect, but he has the talent to be a franchise player. Nobody wants to see another Joel Embiid situation where a top prospect, falling because of health concerns, ends up being the best player in the draft. Porter can be that kind of special player and the risk is worth the reward.

3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., F/C (Michigan State)

AH: It could be a coin flip for the Hawks between Jackson and Marvin Bagley III. Bagley provides more punch on offense, but Jackson is far more advanced on the defensive end. Jackson could turn into a dominant shot blocker with a 7’4″ wingspan and seems like a better fit next to John Collins.

4. Memphis Grizzlies: Luka Doncic, PG (Real Madrid)

CC: If Doncic is still available at No. 4, the Grizzlies’ phone should be ringing off the hook. The Sixers are looking to trade up and he’d be a great fit to help complete the process. If Memphis stays put, Doncic would be a nice pick to play alongside Mike Conley to try and squeeze one more playoff run out of what’s remaining from the Grit-and-Grind era.

5. Dallas Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III, F/C (Duke)

AH: The Mavericks are happy to see Bagley slide to fifth and will snap up the draft’s most offensively skilled big man. Dallas can address its needs at center on the free agent market, as Bagley provides an inside scoring threat the team has lacked along with an aggressive rebounder. Bagley averaged a double-double in his lone season at Duke and appears capable of posting similar numbers at the NBA level.

6. Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG (Oklahoma)

CC: The Magic need playmakers. Given his shooting and passing ability, Young fits the job description. He’d make a great sidekick next to Jonathan Issac as a pillar of the future in Orlando.

7. Chicago Bulls: Mohamed Bamba, C (Texas)

AH: The Bulls have young talent in place at nearly every position, but they need a long-term replacement for 30-year-old Robin Lopez. With a 7’9″ wingspan and impeccable defensive instincts, Bamba will provide an anchor for an often-porous defense and could develop into the NBA’s next great shot blocker. The Bulls can plug Bamba into the middle and wait for his offensive game to develop.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Collin Sexton, PG (Alabama)

CC: LeBron James and his camp are reportedly high on Sexton, and he makes sense as a prospect for the Cavs regardless of whether LBJ remains in town.

9. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter Jr., C (Duke)

AH: With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined by a torn ACL and Enes Kanter still mulling over his player-option decision, the Knicks are going to need help up front. At 263 pounds, Carter has the size to compete with NBA big men, along with the skills to succeed on the perimeter. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor calls Carter the best passing big man in the lottery, and he looks like a nice long-term running mate for Porzingis.

10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF (Villanova)

CC: Bridges can be a nice addition to a team that’s developing in ways only Sam Hinkie imagined. The Villanova product can slot into Philadelphia’s rotation on day one.

11. Charlotte Hornets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G (Kentucky)

AH: The Hornets need to start developing a replacement for Kemba Walker, who can reach unrestricted free agency next year and may even be traded this summer. Gilgeous-Alexander is an intriguing option with his advanced defensive skills and the size to play either backcourt position.

12. Los Angeles Clippers: Kevin Knox, F (Kentucky)

CC: While still a bit raw, Knox has the shooting and defensive chops to be a major player in the league. He’ll fit in well behind Tobias Harris for a year before the veteran hits the free agent market.

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C (Texas A&M)

AH: Los Angeles could have an immediate need at center if DeAndre Jordan opts out. Williams provides many of the same skills with his ability to finish on the pick-and-roll, rebound and patrol the middle on defense.

14. Denver Nuggets: Miles Bridges, F (Michigan State)

CC: Bridges, who should be able to play the three and four in the modern NBA, looks like an ideal long-term partner for Nikola Jokic due to his ability to space the floor and guard several positions. He’s capable of immediately providing help off the bench and could be Paul Millsap‘s eventual replacement at power forward.

15. Washington Wizards: Lonnie Walker IV, SG (Miami)

AH: Guard isn’t a position of need in Washington, but Walker is too talented to pass up at No. 15. He’s explosive off the dribble, loves to attack the rim and can match up with three positions on defense.

16. Phoenix Suns: Elie Okobo, PG (Pau-Orthez)

CC: Elfrid Payton might be back with Phoenix, but he’s merely a placeholder until the Suns find a long-term answer at the point guard position. Okobo, who is a tremendous passer, could be that answer. At the price of a mid-first-rounder, he’s worth the risk for the franchise.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Zhaire Smith, SF (Texas Tech)

AH: Smith would be a fantastic addition to the Bucks’ collection of athletically gifted players. Scouts love his ability to finish at the rim, and he’s a relentless defender who can handle guards and wings.

18. San Antonio Spurs: Troy Brown, SG (Oregon)

CC: Brown might take some time to develop, especially with his shooting, but his size and strength make him an intriguing option for a team that could be in transition this summer.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jerome Robinson, PG (Boston College)

AH: Robinson continued to develop his offensive arsenal during a stellar junior season at Boston College. He hit better than 40% from three-point range, can shoot effectively off the dribble and has the size and versatility to handle either backcourt position.

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Chandler Hutchison, G/F (Boise State)

CC: Depth on the wing is an area Minnesota needs to address this offseason and while Hutchison lacks major upside, he should be able to compete for a spot in the rotation right away.

21. Utah Jazz: Donte DiVincenzo, G (Villanova)

AH: The hero of this year’s NCAA championship game gives the Jazz another tough competitor off the bench. Dante Exum isn’t certain to return and Ricky Rubio will be a free agent next summer, so Utah needs to starting thinking about the future of its backcourt.

22. Chicago Bulls: Mitchell Robinson, C (Western Kentucky)

CC: The big man has potential to turn into a 10-year starter, though that outcome is far from certain. The Bulls can afford to be patient and take a risk on Robinson, who has never played in college or at a high international level.

23. Indiana Pacers: Aaron Holiday, PG (UCLA)

AH: It’s time to find a future running mate for Victor Oladipo. Darren Collison turns 31 this summer and isn’t signed past next season. Holiday displayed his scoring prowess as a junior at UCLA and his skills should translate well to the NBA.

24. Portland Trail Blazers: Keita Bates-Diop, PF (Ohio State)

CC: Bates-Diop is a project, but his length and versatility make drafting him a worthwhile venture. He could be a long-term fixture for the Blazers next to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, assuming the franchise doesn’t break up its talented backcourt.

25. Los Angeles Lakers: De’Anthony Melton, G (USC)

AH: The Lakers stay close to home for this pick, adding an athletic scorer from USC who can also help as a playmaker and defender. In the unlikely event that the Lakers part with Lonzo Ball during their offseason quest for veteran stars, Melton would provide a nice replacement.

26. Philadelphia 76ers: Dzanan Musa, SF (Cedevita)

CC: Another international project for Philadelphia. Musa is one of the youngest players in the draft, turning 19 in May, and he has the upside to be a productive wing in the NBA.

27. Boston Celtics: Kevin Huerter, SG (Maryland)

AH: Huerter slides a little bit after hand surgery that limited his workouts, but there’s no doubt the Maryland product can play. He is an effective shooter from all over the court and at 6’7″ has the size to handle multiple positions.

28. Golden State Warriors: Josh Okogie, SG (Georgia Tech)

CC: Okogie has the tools to become a premier perimeter defender and Golden State can give him the time to develop into a solid rotational piece.

29. Brooklyn Nets: Jacob Evans, G/F (Cincinnati)

AH: The Nets would prefer to trade up, but Evans is a nice consolation prize if they can’t. He’s a versatile scorer who can get points on the move or from his post-up game. He is also an above-average defensive player who excels at blocking shots.

30) Atlanta Hawks: Gary Trent Jr., SG (Duke)

CC: Trent Jr. is an excellent three-point shooter, though he needs to work on his defense at the next level. Perhaps the Duke product can develop into a Robert Covington-type player for new Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce, a former Sixers assistant.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Portland Trail Blazers

June 19th, 2018 at 12:28pm CST by Luke Adams

The Trail Blazers improved their record by eight games in 2017/18 and claimed the No. 3 seed in a competitive Western Conference. However, their season ended the same way it did the year before, with a first-round playoff sweep. And this time around, that sweep came at the hands of the underdog Pelicans rather than the eventual champions in Golden State.

Portland’s roster will need to undergo some tweaks in order to make the club a contender capable of seriously challenging the Warriors and the other top teams in the West, but a 2016 spending spree has limited the front office’s ability to make adjustments. Finding a way to make upgrades will be the primary challenge this offseason for the cap-strapped Blazers.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Blazers consider breaking up their star backcourt?

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were largely responsible for the Blazers’ 49-win season, combining for 48.3 PPG and 10.0 APG between them. Lillard, a three-time All-Star, earned First Team All-NBA honors for the first time in his career this spring, and McCollum is a star in his own right, averaging 21.7 PPG with a .412 3PT% over the last three seasons and virtually never missing a game.

Still, there’s a nagging sense that the Blazers won’t ever win a championship as long as Lillard and McCollum are their two best players. Unlike in Golden State, where the Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson duo thrives due to their varied skill sets, neither of Portland’s star guards is an elite wing defender or excels as a simple catch-and-shoot option on offense.

The Blazers have repeatedly insisted that they won’t break up their star backcourt, but it’s an idea worth considering. Lillard almost certainly won’t go anywhere as long as he’s happy in the Pacific Northwest, but finding the right McCollum deal could kill two birds with one stone — McCollum could net the Blazers an impact player who better balances the roster, and moving his $25.76MM salary might help the team better balance its books.

A shakeup of that magnitude is probably unlikely for a team that had the success Portland did in 2017/18, so I expect both guards to stick with the Blazers to start next season. Still, at some point the front office will have to seriously weigh the idea of a change. If it happens as soon as this summer, it wouldn’t be a total shock.

2. Will the Trail Blazers re-sign Jusuf Nurkic?

Assuming the Blazers move forward with Lillard and McCollum, it’s crucial that the duo is complemented with an impact player in the frontcourt, preferably one who can protect the rim and help make up for defensive lapses on the perimeter. Nurkic initially appeared to be that guy after coming over in a midseason trade with the Nuggets in 2017.

While Nurkic had a solid showing in 2017/18, averaging 14.3 PPG and 9.0 RPG with 1.4 BPG, he struggled with consistency on defense, and his offensive game is still somewhat limited. Nurkic will only turn 24 years old in August, so there’s plenty of time for him to continue to develop, but with restricted free agency looming, the Blazers will have to decide how much of an investment his upside is worth. If Portland bets big on Nurkic, the team could be locked into its current core for years, so a long-term deal is a risk.

On the other hand, Zach Collins may not be ready for a major role and fellow big man Ed Davis is a free agent this offseason too. If the Blazers let Nurkic walk, they’d not only be losing him for nothing — they’d also be potentially creating a major hole in their frontcourt without freeing up any extra cap room to fill that hole.

The Blazers’ decision on Nurkic will be a fascinating one. If another team like the Mavericks swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet in the range of $15-20MM per year, matching that offer would be a tough pill for Portland to swallow, especially since insisting on locking up restricted free agents to big-money deals in 2016 helped create the Blazers’ current cap troubles. Still, Nurkic might have a higher ceiling than any of those previous RFAs, and the club won’t want him to become the one that got away.

3. Are the Blazers ready and willing to become a taxpaying team?

One key factor in the Nurkic equation will be the Blazers’ willingness to pay the luxury tax. The club sidestepped a big tax bill this past season by sending Allen Crabbe and his exorbitant contract to Brooklyn. If Portland re-signs Nurkic for $12-15MM annually, the team will already be right around the 2018/19 tax line with only nine guaranteed salaries on its books.

Another salary dump to escape the tax would be possible, but the Blazers would either have to attach a valuable asset or two to Meyers Leonard or Evan Turner in order to move them, or deal a solid rotation player like Maurice Harkless. In either scenario, Portland might avoid the tax, but the team would be heading into 2018/19 with a roster similar to last season’s and hoping for better results.

President of basketball operations Neil Olshey has talked about wanting to be more aggressive with the tools available to the franchise, including a sizable trade exception acquired in last year’s Crabbe deal. If the Blazers want to re-sign Nurkic and perhaps other key free agents and use their TPE, they may have to be willing to pay the tax.

4. Who are the Blazers’ most likely trade candidates?

As intriguing a trade chip as McCollum would be, the Blazers’ conversations this summer are more likely to focus on a series of players who are a little more expendable. As noted above, Turner and Leonard are probably the two veterans Portland would most like to move, as they’re set to earn $28MM+ combined in 2018/19. They’ll have negative trade value.

Potential trade partners are more likely to target players like Harkless ($10.84MM) and Al-Farouq Aminu ($6.98MM), whose solid play makes them more appealing pieces. However, even if the Blazers get an opportunity to shed those salaries, they may not be eager to sign off. If Portland is unable to retain Davis and/or Pat Connaughton, the team’s depth at the forward position will take a hit, making it more crucial to bring back Harkless at the three and Aminu at the four.

With Lillard and Collins both extremely unlikely to be moved, the only other potential trade candidate on the roster is Caleb Swanigan. However, at just $1.74MM, his cap charge isn’t a problem for the Blazers, who likely want to see more out of last year’s first-round pick before deciding whether or not he’s a keeper.

5. Can the Blazers find an immediate contributor with the No. 24 pick?

If the Blazers have to sacrifice a key rotation player like Harkless or Aminu during the offseason, the club will be under pressure to find low-cost contributors. That could simply mean finding veteran free agents willing to play for the minimum, but Portland’s first-round pick may provide another path to an inexpensive rotation piece.

Although many first-round prospects aren’t ready to play meaningful minutes right away, some players available late in the first round will be more NBA-ready than others. Aaron Holiday, Grayson Allen, Keita Bates-Diop, Khyri Thomas, Melvin Frazier, Jalen Brunson, and Chandler Hutchison are among the potential targets for the Blazers who played at least three college seasons before entering this year’s draft.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Trail Blazers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Damian Lillard ($27,977,689)
C.J. McCollum ($25,759,766)
Evan Turner ($17,868,853)
Maurice Harkless ($10,837,079)
Meyers Leonard ($10,595,506)
Al-Farouq Aminu ($6,957,105)
Zach Collins ($3,628,920)
Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,430) — Waived via stretch provision
Anderson Varejao ($1,913,345) — Waived via stretch provision
Caleb Swanigan ($1,740,000)
Festus Ezeli ($333,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $110,456,026

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Wade Baldwin ($1,544,951)¹
Jake Layman ($1,544,951)²
Georgios Papagiannis ($1,544,951)³
Total: $4,634,853

Restricted Free Agents

Jusuf Nurkic ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $8,841,915 cap hold): Bird rights
Shabazz Napier ($3,452,308 qualifying offer / $7,084,080 cap hold): Bird rights
Pat Connaughton ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $17,765,223

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Ed Davis ($12,069,809): Bird rights
No. 24 overall pick ($1,819,780)
Total: $13,889,589

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

With over $110MM in guaranteed contracts already on their books for 2018/19, the Blazers have no viable path to cap room, barring multiple trades and/or cuts. In fact, with only eight players accounting for that $110MM+, Portland could easily approach or surpass the tax line once the team’s roster fills out — especially if Nurkic is re-signed.

Footnotes:

Baldwin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 19.
Layman’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Papagiannis’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Indiana Pacers

June 18th, 2018 at 10:45pm CST by Luke Adams

The trade that sent Paul George to Oklahoma City in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, widely panned at the time, was the catalyst for the Pacers‘ surprisingly strong 2017/18 season. Although they were unable to knock off the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, the Pacers won 48 regular-season games and then gave LeBron James‘ squad all it could handle in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

Having cleverly sidestepped the prospect of a potential rebuild, the Pacers are now in position to keep fortifying an impressive roster, given their cap flexibility.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Thaddeus Young opt out of his contract?

The second-highest-paid player on the Pacers’ roster in 2017/18, Young also averaged the second-most minutes per game behind Oladipo, playing an important role in the team’s success. Still, as a frontcourt player who doesn’t protect the rim or make many outside shots, Young probably wouldn’t be one of the league’s most coveted free agents if he opts out of his contract this summer.

Nonetheless, Young is reportedly strongly considering the possibility of declining a player option worth $13.76MM. The veteran forward, who turns 30 on Thursday, may never again have a better chance to land a long-term contract than he does this summer, so even if he has take a pay cut for 2018/19, signing a multiyear deal and receiving some long-term security could be worth it.

Young’s decision will have a significant impact on the Pacers’ cap outlook for next season. If he opts out and doesn’t re-sign in Indiana, the club could potentially double its available cap room, which would create new opportunities in the free agent and/or trade market.

The best outcome for both sides may see Young turn down his player option in order to sign a new contract with the Pacers. For instance, an agreement in the three-year, $30MM range would give Young a good reason to turn down a one-year payday of $13MM+, and it would open up some extra cap space for Indiana this summer.

2. Will the Pacers retain their veterans on partially guaranteed contracts?

The majority of players around the NBA who are on non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2018/19 will earn the minimum salary if they’re retained. That’s not the case for three Pacers veterans, who would make a combined $30.5MM if they stick with Indiana.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($10.5MM) and Darren Collison ($10MM) signed similar two-year contracts with Indiana last summer, and now both look like good bets to return for next season. Bogdanovic only has a $1.5MM guarantee, but he had an excellent year as the Pacers’ starting small forward, averaging a career-high 14.3 PPG and knocking down 40.2% of his three-pointers. At $10.5MM on an expiring deal, he’s a solid value, and the same can be said for Collison, who has a $2MM partial guarantee for now. As Indiana’s starting point guard, he recorded 12.4 PPG and 5.3 APG to go along with a league-leading .468 3PT%.

That leaves Jefferson, who also has a $10MM salary for next season, with $4MM currently guaranteed. Unlike Bogdanovic and Collison, the 33-year-old isn’t a regular rotation player for the Pacers, having established new career lows in minutes in each of his two seasons in Indiana. The Pacers would save $6MM by waiving Jefferson, and I’d be surprised if they don’t take advantage of that opportunity.

It’s possible that the outlooks for these players could change — if the Pacers get a shot at a marquee free agent, perhaps Bogdanovic and/or Collison would need to be waived to create extra cap space. If Indiana needs to reach the minimum cap floor, perhaps Jefferson’s salary will get guaranteed. But for now, the club’s decisions seem fairly straightforward.

3. Will the Pacers make a major splash in free agency or on the trade market?

At the trade deadline, several Pacers players implored president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard not to break up the squad. Those players argued that the club’s best move would be to stand pat in order to avoid messing with Indiana’s chemistry and success. Pritchard listened, and the Pacers didn’t make a deadline deal.

That anecdote is worth keeping in mind as Indiana considers trade options this summer. Pritchard will probably make a trade or two if the right opportunity arises, but the Pacers are unlikely to overhaul their roster drastically by packaging three or four regular contributors for one standout player. Not after seeing how well this group meshed during the 2017/18 season.

With cap room available this offseason, the free agent market might represent the best path for the Pacers to add another impact player to the mix. However, Indiana typically isn’t a go-to destination for top free agents, and Pritchard’s own comments this spring about the franchise’s aversion to “big names” and “big personalities” suggest the club is unlikely to be in the mix for stars.

The Pacers will do their due diligence on any signing or trade that could increase their ceiling for 2018/19, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office ultimately decides to take an approach similar to last year’s, when multiple free agents joined the team on short-term, mid-level-type contracts.

4. Will Myles Turner be extended?

If the Pacers do explore a blockbuster deal, Turner would make some sense as a centerpiece. He didn’t have the breakout year that many observers expected in 2017/18, and there’s plenty of overlap between him and Sabonis, raising some questions about whether both players have long-term futures in Indiana.

As a 22-year-old big man who can make three-pointers and block shots, Turner would have substantial trade value. He also has tremendous value to the Pacers, which is why there’s a much better chance that the team hangs onto him and attempts to figure out how to best maximize both his and Sabonis’ skill sets.

Assuming Turner remains on the roster, the Pacers will face another decision on him this offseason — is a long-term extension in the cards? Turner will be extension-eligible for the first time between July 1 and the start of the regular season, and this might be the best time for the club to strike. After all, Turner is coming off something of a down season. If he bounces back with a career year in 2018/19, he’ll get even more expensive as he enters restricted free agency.

I expect the Pacers to explore a long-term deal for Turner in the coming months, perhaps even finalizing a deal if the price is right. But with plenty of teams around the league expected to clear cap room for 2019, Turner’s representatives would be smart not to settle for a team-friendly offer in 2018. And if Indiana can’t get a discount, the club is probably best off keeping its options open by waiting until next year to commit to Turner.

5. What will the Pacers do with their first-round pick?

Armed with the No. 23 overall pick, the Pacers have focused primarily on forwards and swingmen in their group workouts leading up to this year’s draft.

It makes sense that the team would be eyeing that sort of player. In Oladipo, Collison, Cory Joseph, and Lance Stephenson, the Pacers have no shortage of ball-handlers in the backcourt, and Turner and Sabonis figure to man the middle. Acquiring a three-and-D small forward to pair with Bogdanovic – or a power forward as Young insurance – seems logical.

Kevin Huerter, Dzanan Musa, Troy Brown, Jacob Evans, Chandler Hutchison, and Keita Bates-Diop are among the prospects who could be options for Indiana at No. 23. Given how sparingly 2017 first-rounder T.J. Leaf was used in his rookie season, the Pacers probably won’t expect an immediate impact from this year’s top pick. That means targeting the player whose long-term outlook they like the best.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pacers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Victor Oladipo ($21,000,000)
Cory Joseph ($7,945,000): Exercised player option
Al Jefferson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Myles Turner ($3,410,284)
Domantas Sabonis ($2,659,800)
T.J. Leaf ($2,407,560)
Monta Ellis ($2,245,400) — Waived via stretch provision
Darren Collison ($2,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
Bojan Bogdanovic ($1,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.³
Ike Anigbogu ($690,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.⁴
Total: $47,858,044

Player Options

Thaddeus Young ($13,764,045)
Total: $13,764,045

Team Options

Lance Stephenson ($4,360,000)
Joe Young ($1,600,520)⁵
Total: $5,960,520

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Bojan Bogdanovic ($9,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.³
Darren Collison ($8,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
Al Jefferson ($6,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Alex Poythress ($1,544,951)⁶
Ike Anigbogu ($688,242) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.⁴
Total: $25,233,193

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 23 overall pick ($1,895,624)
Trevor Booker ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Glenn Robinson III ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Total: $4,895,020

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $14,602,734

Our projection accounts for Indiana’s five fully guaranteed salaries, Thaddeus Young‘s player option, full salaries for Bogdanovic, Collison, and Anigbogu, Stephenson’s team option, and cap holds for the first-round pick and one empty roster spot. The result? A total team salary of $86,397,266. However, if Young opts out and/or the Pacers opt to cut more players with non-guaranteed deals, the team could double or even triple its projected cap space.

Footnotes:

There are conflicting reports on Jefferson’s guarantee date. His salary becomes fully guaranteed after either July 2 or January 10.
Collison’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Bogdanovic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
Anigbogu’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Young’s salary would still be non-guaranteed until July 1 if his option is exercised.
Poythress’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 25.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Kings’ No. 2 Overall Pick

June 18th, 2018 at 6:52pm CST by Dana Gauruder

From all appearances, the Suns will take Arizona center Deandre Ayton with the top pick on Thursday. However, there’s quite a bit of intrigue in terms of what the Kings will do at No. 2.

For months, Euro guard Luka Doncic was considered the likely selection at that spot. His stock has seemingly fallen this month, as Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports reported Monday that Doncic could still be on the board at No. 4.

The Kings could use help in a lot of areas, of course, and they’re not chock full of dynamic playmakers. They were tied for 24th in the league in assists per game last season. But they are apparently committed to last year’s lottery pick, De’Aaron Fox, as their main ballhandler.

Instead, they’re in the market for big man who can stretch the defense. Duke’s Marvin Bagley III has emerged as the leading candidate to fill that need. He’s a near-lock to be their selection, according to the Dallas Morning News’ Eddie Sefko (Twitter link).

The 6’11” Bagley put up big numbers in his lone college season, averaging 21.0 PPG and 11.1 RPG. He didn’t take a lot of threes but he knocked down 39.7% of the ones he attempted.

Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson, who reportedly had a very impressive workout for the Suns, is another enticing prospect. Texas center Mohamed Bamba has zoomed up many draft boards and is currently ranked No. 3 overall by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. Michael Porter Jr., despite his health risks, could be the wildcard in the equation.

It’s no lock the Kings will even hold onto the pick. GM Vlade Divac is reportedly willing to deal the pick in order to acquire additional assets. When Kawhi Leonard made public last week his desire to be dealt from the Spurs, the Kings made the list of potential landings spots. They are reportedly willing to give up the pick as part of a package to land the star forward.

This brings us to our question of the day: Assuming the Suns draft Ayton with the top pick, which player should the Kings select at No. 2? Or should the Kings deal the pick for additional draft choices and/or players?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to what you have to say.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

June 18th, 2018 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

After the in-season acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins didn’t pay immediate dividends for the Pelicans down the stretch in 2016/17, head coach Alvin Gentry and GM Dell Demps weren’t a lock to stick with the team last summer. New Orleans retained both, however, and the club was rewarded for its patience with its best regular-season record since 2009 and its deepest playoff run since 2008.

With Anthony Davis having become a perennial MVP candidate and Jrue Holiday establishing himself as one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders, the Pelicans have a pair of building blocks under contract for multiple years. Now, the team will have to figure out how to retain enough pieces around those two stars to remain in contention going forward, particularly with two major contributors – Cousins and Rajon Rondo – up for new deals.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Pelicans re-sign Cousins?

In 48 games before he tore his Achilles tendon, Cousins put up some truly incredible numbers, racking up 25.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.6 BPG, and 1.6 SPG. For good measure, he also led the team with 2.2 three-pointers per contest.

That production made Cousins an obvious candidate for a long-term, maximum-salary contract, but his ongoing recovery from Achilles surgery complicates matters significantly. While Achilles tears aren’t necessarily career-ending injuries, they’re often career-altering ailments, with players never quite looking the same as they did prior to the injury.

There’s no guarantee that will be the case with Cousins. It’s possible he’ll return to the court next season and look just as good as ever. However, that’s virtually impossible to predict, and teams willing to gamble on that sort of prognosis will have to pony up the max – or something close to it – months before Cousins is ready to return to action to find out if they’re right.

After giving up a slew of assets for Cousins just 16 months ago, the Pelicans probably can’t afford to just let him walk for nothing, especially since doing so wouldn’t get the team below the cap. That leaves two probable scenarios — either New Orleans brings back the ex-King, or the club negotiates a sign-and-trade deal to send him elsewhere.

Given the overlap between Davis’ and Cousins’ skill sets, the idea of signing-and-trading Cousins for a wing who might fit better alongside Davis and Holiday is intriguing. But sign-and-trades require two teams and the player to all be on the same page, and roadblocks can often get in the way of finalizing a deal. So that scenario might be a last resort for the Pelicans, whose preference will be to bring back Cousins on a shorter-term or less expensive deal that would mitigate the risk in case his Achilles continue to be an issue going forward. It remains to be seen whether the star center will be on board for that sort of contract or whether he’ll receive better offers.

2. Will the Pelicans re-sign Rondo?

While Rondo isn’t the sort of marquee free agent that Cousins is, the Pelicans won’t overlook him this offseason. Not every stop in Rondo’s NBA career has been a huge success, but teams that like him really like him, and that appeared to be the case in New Orleans, where he was credited for helping set the culture for a team that won 48 games and a playoff series.

Rondo is coming off a one-year, $3.3MM pact, and will be in line for a raise this summer. If the Pelicans bring back Cousins or sign-and-trade him for another highly-paid veteran, the club will have to be cautious about how much it offers Rondo.

New Orleans already has nearly $93MM in guaranteed money on its books for 2018/19, and re-signing Cousins could add another $25MM+ to that figure. If Rondo commands a salary in the $8-10MM range, the Pelicans would be into luxury-tax territory unless they can cut costs elsewhere.

That doesn’t mean that Rondo won’t return — it simply means that the franchise will have to think long and hard about where its priorities lie and how it wants to spends its money. I imagine the Pelicans will do all they can to make sure the veteran point guard is back on the roster next season.

3. How can the Pelicans trim salary?

The Pelicans currently have six players on guaranteed contracts worth more than the minimum for next season. Davis and Holiday aren’t going anywhere, and Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore were important parts of last season’s rotation, so they’re not expendable either. That leaves Solomon Hill ($12.75MM) and Alexis Ajinca ($5.29MM) as potential trade or release candidates.

In theory, Hill is the exact sort of player the Pelicans could use. He knocked down 34.8% of his three-pointers in 2016/17 and can play either forward position. But he missed nearly the entire 2017/18 campaign due to a torn hamstring, and even when he’s healthy and productive, he’s probably overpriced. He has two years left on his contract and will have negative value as a trade chip, so he won’t be easy to move, but getting his salary off the books could free up the Pelicans to retain both Cousins and Rondo without going into the tax, so the club will see if there’s a way to do it.

Ajinca, whose 2017/18 season was also lost to health problems, has less on-court value than Hill at this point in his career, but he’s less expensive and is entering a contract year, making him easier to move. If New Orleans can’t find a taker, the club could waive him and stretch his salary over three seasons, reducing his ’18/19 cap charge by $3.5MM+.

4. What will happen with the Pelicans’ non-guaranteed players?

The Pelicans currently have four players with non-guaranteed salaries for 2018/19: Emeka Okafor ($2.45MM), Darius Miller ($2.21MM), DeAndre Liggins ($1.8MM), and Cheick Diallo ($1.54MM).

Of those four players, Miller is the best bargain and the strongest bet to be back at his current cap hit. After spending two years away from the NBA, Miller played all 82 games in 2017/18 and carved out a key role in the Pelicans’ rotation, recording 7.8 PPG and a .411 3PT% in 23.7 MPG. The Pelicans’ roster isn’t exactly packed with sharpshooters, so getting a marksman like Miller back at an affordable rate should appeal to the club.

Liggins and particularly Okafor were solid in part-time action for New Orleans, but the competition for their services this summer likely won’t be fierce. If they want them back, it might make sense for the Pelicans to waive them and re-sign them on one-year contracts — doing so would save the team about $1MM in cap charges, since the NBA covers a portion of a player’s salary on a one-year, minimum-salary deal. If the Pelicans approach tax territory, every dollar will matter, so those savings wouldn’t be insignificant.

As for Diallo, he’s still just 21 years old, and he started seeing more regular playing time in the second half last season. I wouldn’t expect the Pelicans to give up on him at this point, so he figures to return.

5. Is the Pelicans’ success sustainable with no pipeline of top young talent?

Since they drafted Davis with the No. 1 overall pick in 2012, the Pelicans’ first-round picks have looked like this:

2013: Traded for Holiday.
2014: Traded for Holiday.
2015: Traded for Omer Asik and Omri Casspi.
2016: Buddy Hield (Later traded for Cousins).
2017: Traded for Cousins.
2018: Traded for Mirotic.

With the exception of the ill-advised Asik/Casspi deal, the players the Pelicans have acquired for their first-round picks have been good ones — if Cousins re-signs, they’ll all be key parts of next year’s roster. And there’s nothing inherently wrong with repeatedly trading first-round picks for veteran players if those trades are successful.

Still, the fact that the Pelicans don’t have a single player on their roster who is on a rookie-scale contract is a key reason why the team’s roster is getting expensive and why it will be difficult to add solid complementary pieces around their stars. The best way for good teams to stay good is to keep adding inexpensive, controllable role players to the mix, and the draft represents the best way to do just that.

The Pelicans do have some youngsters on the roster, and it’s possible Diallo and/or Frank Jackson will eventually evolve into reliable contributors. But the club needs to make an effort to keep adding that sort of player to the mix. Otherwise, by the time Davis becomes eligible for his next contract, the Pels risk having surrounded him with aging, overpriced veterans and having little flexibility to get younger.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Jrue Holiday ($26,131,111)
Anthony Davis ($25,434,262)
Nikola Mirotic ($12,500,000)
Solomon Hill ($12,252,928)
E’Twaun Moore ($8,808,685)
Alexis Ajinca ($5,285,394)
Frank Jackson ($1,378,242)
Cheick Diallo ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $92,290,622

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Emeka Okafor ($2,445,085)²
Darius Miller ($2,205,000)³
DeAndre Liggins ($1,795,015)⁴
Cheick Diallo ($1,044,951) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $7,490,051

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

DeMarcus Cousins ($27,095,775): Bird rights
Rajon Rondo ($3,960,000): Non-Bird rights
Jordan Crawford ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Ian Clark ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Donatas Motiejunas ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $35,554,869

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even if the Pelicans were to renounce all their free agents and waive all their non-guaranteed salaries, their total team salary would still reach a minimum of $96,447,177, creating less than $5MM in cap room. The mid-level exception projects to be worth about $8.57MM, so New Orleans is better off remaining an over-the-cap team. Plus, cap holds for Cousins and Rondo would put the club way over the cap anyway.

Footnotes:

Diallo’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 7.
Okafor’s salary becomes guaranteed for $100K after July 12.
Miller’s salary becomes guaranteed for $300K after June 28, then fully guaranteed after July 24.
Liggins’ salary becomes guaranteed for $50K after July 15, then guaranteed for $75K after July 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NBA Salary Guarantee Dates For Summer 2018

June 17th, 2018 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Most NBA teams have at least one player on their books with a non-guaranteed salary or a partially guaranteed salary for the 2018/19 season. In the majority of those cases, the team has the ability to waive the player and get off the hook for that entire salary before it becomes guaranteed. However, many of those decisions will be due well before next year’s regular season gets underway.

Below, we’ve broken down the upcoming salary guarantee dates for many players currently on non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2018/19. Not every player on a non-guaranteed deal is included here — if a player’s contract doesn’t include any early salary guarantee dates, and won’t become fully guaranteed until January 2019, we’ll look at his deal at a later date.

For now, we want to get a better idea of which teams will have to make decisions on salary guarantees during or before the free agent period. So if a player’s non-guaranteed contract becomes fully or partially guaranteed during the months of June, July, August, or September, that’s noted below.

When his deadline date passes, we’ll note below if a player was waived. If he remained on the roster, receiving his guarantee, that’s noted with a ✔️ symbol. However, since teams and players can agree to push back guarantee dates, we’ll wait for confirmation one way or the other on those guarantees — if a player simply remains on the roster, without any updates, we won’t necessarily assume his deal has become guaranteed.

With the help of contract information from Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders and ESPN’s Bobby Marks, here are this summer’s upcoming salary guarantee dates by team:

Atlanta Hawks

Isaiah Taylor: $1,544,951 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $300,000 after June 30. Full salary becomes guaranteed after July 27. (Waived)

Boston Celtics

Daniel Theis: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 10. (✔️)
Semi Ojeleye: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 15. Already partially guaranteed for $901,965. (✔️)

Brooklyn Nets

None

Charlotte Hornets

None

Chicago Bulls

Paul Zipser: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 18. (Waived)
Julyan Stone: $1,656,092 salary becomes guaranteed after August 1. (Waived)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Okaro White: $1,544,951 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $772,476 after August 5. (Waived)

Dallas Mavericks

Dorian Finney-Smith: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 5. (✔️)
Kyle Collinsworth: $1,378,242 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $100,000 after July 6. (Waived)
Maxi Kleber: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 15. (✔️)

Denver Nuggets

Isaiah Whitehead: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 31. (Waived)

Detroit Pistons

Eric Moreland: $1,826,300 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $750,000 after July 8. (Waived)
Reggie Bullock: $2,500,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 15. (✔️)
Dwight Buycks: $1,600,520 salary becomes guaranteed after September 1. (Waived)

Golden State Warriors

None

Houston Rockets

None

Indiana Pacers

Bojan Bogdanovic: $10,500,000 salary becomes guaranteed after June 29. Already partially guaranteed for $1,500,000. (✔️)
Darren Collison: $10,000,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 1. Already partially guaranteed for $2,000,000. (✔️)
Al Jefferson: $10,000,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 2. (Waived)
Ike Anigbogu: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 15. Already partially guaranteed for $690,000. (✔️)
Alex Poythress: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 25. (Waived)

Los Angeles Clippers

Milos Teodosic: $6,300,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 15. Already partially guaranteed for $2,100,000. (✔️)

Los Angeles Lakers

Ivica Zubac: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after June 30. (✔️)
Thomas Bryant: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 5. (Waived, claimed by Wizards)
Tyler Ennis: $1,656,092 salary becomes guaranteed after July 5. (Waived)

Memphis Grizzlies

Wayne Selden: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 10. Already partially guaranteed for $772,476. (✔️)

Miami Heat

Rodney McGruder: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after June 30. (✔️)

Milwaukee Bucks

Malcolm Brogdon: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 1. (✔️)
Brandon Jennings: $2,222,803 salary becomes guaranteed after August 1. (Waived)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cole Aldrich: $6,956,021 salary becomes guaranteed after June 30. Already partially guaranteed for $2,056,021. (Waived)

New Orleans Pelicans

Darius Miller: $2,205,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 4. Already partially guaranteed for $300,000. (✔️)
Cheick Diallo: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 7. Already partially guaranteed for $500,000. (✔️)
Emeka Okafor: $2,445,085 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $100,000 after July 12. (✔️)
DeAndre Liggins: $1,795,015 becomes partially guaranteed for $75,000 after July 30. Already partially guaranteed for $50,000. (✔️)

New York Knicks

Trey Burke: $1,795,015 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $100,000 after July 10. (✔️)
Troy Williams: $1,544,951 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $100,000 after August 1. (Waived)

Oklahoma City Thunder

None

Orlando Magic

Shelvin Mack: $6,000,000 salary becomes guaranteed after June 25. Already partially guaranteed for $1,000,000. (Waived)
Khem Birch: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after June 29. (✔️)

Philadelphia 76ers

None

Phoenix Suns

Tyler Ulis: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after June 30. (Waived)
Alan Williams: $5,520,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 6. (Waived)
Davon Reed: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 20. Already partially guaranteed for $689,121. (✔️)
Shaquille Harrison: $1,378,242 salary becomes partially guaranteed for $50,000 after August 1. (✔️)

Portland Trail Blazers

Jake Layman: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after June 30. (✔️)
Wade Baldwin: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 19. (✔️)
Georgios Papagiannis: $1,544,951 salary becomes guaranteed after July 19. (Waived)

Sacramento Kings

None

San Antonio Spurs

Brandon Paul: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after August 1. (Waived)

Toronto Raptors

Alfonzo McKinnie: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 18. (Waived)

Utah Jazz

Thabo Sefolosha: $5,250,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 1. (✔️)
Jonas Jerebko: $4,200,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 9. (Waived)
Ekpe Udoh: $3,360,000 salary becomes guaranteed after July 9. (✔️)

Washington Wizards

Thomas Bryant: $1,378,242 salary becomes guaranteed after July 5. (✔️)

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Weekly Mailbag: 6/11/18 – 6/17/18

June 17th, 2018 at 11:52am CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Who do you see the Kings selecting with the second overall pick now that Iman Shumpert has opted in? — Pat Aukes

Shumpert’s decision really doesn’t factor into Sacramento’s draft strategy. His contract only runs for another year, and the Kings have to be thinking about the long-term future with this draft. Luka Doncic was considered a co-No. 1 prospect with Deandre Ayton for most of the winter, and the Kings are said to have their eyes on Michael Porter Jr., assuming team doctors approved him at Friday’s medical exam. If they really want Porter, their best move is find a team that likes Doncic and trade down a few spots. The Kings need a lot of help up front, so if they stay at No. 2, look for them to take Marvin Bagley III or Jaren Jackson Jr.

Considering the deep draft, who are the teams most willing to trade on draft night? — Fernando Bravo

The Grizzlies have let it be known that their selection at No. 4 is available to anyone willing to take on Chandler Parsons‘ contract, and as we relayed earlier today, the Sixers have more draft picks than open roster spots. We could see a lot of movement on draft night as this year’s crop of players offers intriguing prospects through the middle of the first round. Porter presents a wild card that makes this year’s draft especially unpredictable. He may have been in contention for the No. 1 spot without the back injury, and it’s hard to say who might try to engineer a trade to get their hands on him. The farther he falls on draft night, the more likely it is that someone will be willing to take the risk.

Which player will be the first shock with how early he went? — Jimmy Robinson, via Twitter

There are several contenders, especially after the way Donovan Mitchell shocked the league after falling to 13th last year. No one wants to miss the next Mitchell, so teams are taking a long look at prospects pegged to go in the middle of the first round. One potential surprise is Kentucky guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who turned into a star for the Wildcats over the second half of the season. He stands 6’6″ with a 7-foot wingspan and can handle either backcourt position. Don’t be surprised if he moves into the top 10.

Community Shootaround: This Year’s Donovan Mitchell

June 16th, 2018 at 8:45pm CST by Arthur Hill

“He made strides as a playmaker in his sophomore season and operating out of the pick and roll … However, he still plays too fast at times, not always reading the defense and making the simple play … He also lacks the ideal height and court vision to see over the top of the defense, especially with bigger opponents guarding him … He has a tendency to settle for tough, contested two-point jumpers, partially due to his inability to consistently get all the way to the rim, and also because of his average decision making skills … While he can make some of these attempts, it will not be a reliable way to score at the next level, and it will decrease his overall offensive efficiency, as it has in college.”

From NBAdraft.net, that was part of last year’s scouting report on Donovan Mitchell. Those concerns led to him being passed over by 12 teams and then traded by the one that did select him. Mitchell was viewed as an undersized player for his position who needed to land in the right situation to be successful.

He blew away expectations, of course, providing the Jazz with the go-to scorer they needed after the loss of free agent Gordon Hayward. Mitchell became a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award and reminded us that the draft remains hard to predict, no matter how closely the prospects are studied.

It’s easy to criticize the teams that didn’t see Mitchell as a future star. It’s much harder to pick out a similar surprise from this year’s crop. The first 10 selections in the latest mock draft by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony are Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr., Luka Doncic, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Michael Porter Jr., Trae Young, Kevin Knox and Mikal Bridges. The next version of Mitchell might be somewhere outside that group. Here are a few candidates:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — The late-blooming Kentucky star has exceptional size for a point guard, standing 6’6″ with a nearly 7-foot wing span. He is an aggressive defender who can guard several positions, and scouts are confident that his offense will improve as he ages.
Lonnie Walker — Miami’s shooting guard is blessed with considerable athletic ability and a nice shooting stroke that should transfer well into the NBA. He was impressive at the combine both on and off the court, as teams took notice of how he smoothly conducted himself with the media.
Collin Sexton — For all the attention that went to Young, Alabama’s Sexton may have been the best pure point guard in college basketball. He displayed a combination of strength, speed and agility and seemed to raise his game in big moments.
Zhaire Smith — Athleticism stands out for the Texas Tech freshman, who proved to be a dangerous scorer from all over the court and is particularly adept at drawing fouls. He also made strides on defense and as a rebounder and could develop into an all-around player.
Miles Bridges — An A-plus athlete who can match up with guards and forwards, Bridges might have been a certain lottery pick if he had left Michigan State last year. He has a smooth jumper and can get easy points on cuts to the basket, but scouts are most impressed by his athleticism and competitive drive.

Of course, there are a lot more candidates, and we want to get your input. Which player projected to be drafted outside the top 10 has the best chance to turn into a star? Please leave your feedback in the comments section below.

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