Hoops Rumors Originals

Recap Of 2018 NBA Draft-Day Trades

June 22nd, 2018 at 9:28am CST by Luke Adams

In a somewhat unusual development, not a single NBA veteran changed teams on Thursday night. While several trades were completed, all of those deals involved the rights to newly-drafted players, future draft picks, and/or cash.

Listed below are all the trades that were agreed upon at some point on Thursday. While most of these deals were made official during or after the draft, one won’t be finalized until June, which we noted below.

Here’s the full list:

Mavericks/Hawks

Mavericks acquire the draft rights to Luka Doncic (No. 3 pick).
Hawks acquire the draft rights to Trae Young (No. 5 pick) and the Mavericks’ 2019 first-round pick (top-5 protected).

Suns/Sixers

Suns acquire the draft rights to Mikal Bridges (No. 10 pick).
Sixers acquire the draft rights to Zhaire Smith (No. 16 pick) and the Heat’s 2021 first-round pick (unprotected).

Clippers/Hornets

Clippers acquire the draft rights to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (No. 11 pick)
Hornets acquire the draft rights to Miles Bridges (No. 12 pick), the Cavaliers’ 2020 second-round pick, and the Clippers’ 2021 second-round pick.

Hornets/Hawks

Hornets acquire the draft rights to Devonte’ Graham (No. 34 pick).
Hawks acquire the Hornets’ 2019 second-round pick and the Hornets’ 2023 second-round pick.

Trail Blazers/Kings

Trail Blazers acquire the draft rights to Gary Trent Jr. (No. 37 pick).
Kings acquire either the Timberwolves’ or Lakers’ 2019 second-round pick (whichever is more favorable), the Heat’s 2021 second-round pick, and cash ($1.5MM).

Pistons/Sixers

Pistons acquire the draft rights to Khyri Thomas (No. 38 pick).
Sixers acquire the Pistons’ 2021 second-round pick and the Pistons’ 2023 second-round pick.

Nuggets/Magic

Nuggets acquire the draft rights to Jarred Vanderbilt (No. 41 pick).
Magic acquire the draft rights to Justin Jackson (No. 43 pick) and either the Nuggets’ or Wizards’ 2019 second-round pick (whichever is less favorable).
- Note: The Nuggets’ 2019 second-round pick would be sent to Milwaukee if it falls between 56-60, in which case the Magic would receive the Wizards’ second-rounder.

Thunder/Hornets

Thunder acquire the draft rights to Hamidou Diallo (No. 45 pick).
Hornets acquire the Thunder’s 2019 second-round pick and cash.
Note: Trade won’t become official until the new league year, since No. 45 pick first has to be sent from Nets to Hornets.

Rockets/Jazz

Rockets acquire the draft rights to Vince Edwards (No. 52 pick).
Jazz acquire cash ($1.5MM).

Sixers/Mavericks

Sixers acquire the draft rights to Shake Milton (No. 54 pick).
Mavericks acquire the draft rights to Ray Spalding (No. 56 pick) and Kostas Antetokounmpo (No. 60 pick).

Note: Two other trades involving 2018 draft picks were agreed upon prior to draft day. We have separate stories on those Lakers/Sixers and Nets/Hornets swaps.

2018 NBA Offseason Previews By Team

June 21st, 2018 at 5:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2018 NBA offseason is officially in full swing, and over the last several weeks, Hoops Rumors has been previewing this summer’s roster moves and decisions for each of the league’s 30 teams, asking – and doing our best to answer – five key questions for every club.

Our previews for all 30 NBA teams are below:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Central Division

Southeast Division

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest Division

Pacific Division

Southwest Division

Five Key Offseason Questions: Golden State Warriors

June 21st, 2018 at 3:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors continued to build a case in 2017/18 to be considered the most impressive NBA dynasty of the 21st century, taking home their third title in four years. Golden State now has a staggering 265-63 (.808) regular-season record since the start of the 2014/15 campaign, and if it weren’t for a collapse in the 2016 NBA Finals, the club would enter the 2018/19 season in search of its fifth straight championship.

No dynasty lasts forever, but three of the Warriors’ four stars remain under contract for 2018/19, and Kevin Durant is a virtual lock to re-sign once the new league year begins. As long as those four players remain on the roster, the organization’s championship window isn’t closing anytime soon.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will Durant’s new contract look like?

An April report indicated that Durant would turn down his 2018/19 player option and sign a new deal with the Warriors, and the two-time Finals MVP essentially confirmed as much this month. Meanwhile, general manager Bob Myers has stated publicly that Golden State is willing to give Durant “whatever he wants” on his new contract after the star forward took a team-friendly discount a year ago.

Durant is in a somewhat unusual situation though, so there’s no obvious answer as to what he’ll want. Having agreed to 1+1 contracts in each of the last two summers, he’s ineligible to sign such a deal this year unless he once again settles for less than the maximum. The Early Bird exception prohibits players from signing one-year deals or two-year deals with a second-year option. In order to sign a contract with that structure, the club would have to use the Non-Bird exception, which would limit Durant’s salary to $30MM, well below his projected $35.35MM max.

As such, it might be time for Durant to sign a long-term max contract. However, without full Bird rights, he’s limited to four years rather than five. Of course, a four-year, maximum-salary deal would still result in a massive payday (approximately $158MM based on current cap projections), but if Durant is willing to wait one more year for long-term security, it might make sense for him to accept that one-year, $30MM contract for 2018/19.

In that scenario, Durant would be eligible for a five-year max contract a year from now, when the cap is expected to make a larger jump. If the cap increases to $108MM – the current projection – for 2019/20, a five-year deal could be worth up to approximately $219MM, which would make up for taking less than the max again in ’18/19.

2. Will the Warriors extend Klay Thompson and/or Draymond Green this offseason?

With Stephen Curry locked up for the next four seasons and Durant a candidate to sign a long-term contract this offseason, the Warriors’ focus could shift to their other two All-Stars. Green has two years and $36MM left on his current contract, while Thompson will earn $19MM in the final year of his deal in 2018/19. Both will be extension-eligible this summer.

In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win, owner Joe Lacob suggested that the team will make an effort to extend both Thompson and Green in the coming months, but one is a more realistic possibility than the other. Green, who says he took a modest discount on his last deal to help accommodate the Dubs’ pursuit of Durant, will reportedly turn down any extension offer he receives from the club this year. That’s not a surprise — he’s still two years away from the open market, and his earning potential would be higher as a free agent.

Thompson, however, is a more interesting case. The low-maintenance star appears to be perfectly happy in Golden State, so even though he could maximize his earning potential by waiting until free agency to sign a new contract, he may be open to getting something done early. In fact, the two sides have already had discussions about a new deal.

The NBA’s rules related to veteran extensions limit Thompson’s maximum extension to four years for about $102MM, which is well below the max, but it’s still a significant sum. If he were to tack that onto the end of his current contract, it would total approximately $121MM over the next five years. Those numbers might strike a perfect balance between how high the Warriors are willing to go to keep their core intact and how far below the max Thompson is willing to go to remain in a perfect situation.

3. Which Warriors players won’t be back next season?

Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green aren’t going anywhere. In all likelihood, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston aren’t going anywhere either. Damian Jones, Jordan Bell, and Quinn Cook figure to stay put too, since they’re young players earning the minimum. That leaves six spots on the Warriors’ roster that will likely undergo some changes for next season.

Those changes will happen primarily at center, where Zaza Pachulia and David West aren’t expected to return. Retirement is a possibility for both veterans. JaVale McGee isn’t a lock to be back either, nor is Kevon Looney, who might have priced himself out of Golden State’s plans with a strong 2017/18 performance — because they declined his fourth-year team option, the Warriors can’t offer Looney a starting salary worth more than about $2.23MM, the value of that option.

On the wing, Nick Young will probably move on after winning his title. And Patrick McCaw might head elsewhere too after an underwhelming 2017/18 showing. McCaw is still just 22 years old and has displayed some potential, but he seems like a better fit on a rebuilding team that could be patient with his ups and downs, rather than on a title contender where he’d be expected to reliably fill a specific role.

4. How will the Warriors fill out their bench?

The offseason departures should give the Warriors a chance to balance out their bench, which has been loaded with little-used centers for the past couple years. The club’s top priority when addressing its second unit this offseason should be adding at least a couple wings who can knock down three-pointers. Young and Omri Casspi were supposed to be those players last season, and while they finished with solid overall numbers, they were somewhat inconsistent on a game-to-game basis.

Many of the players on the free agent market who would fit the Warriors’ criteria will likely receive larger offers than what Golden State could accommodate. With only the taxpayer mid-level exception available, the Dubs won’t be able to hand out a starting salary worth more than about $5.3MM. Guys like Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza, Will Barton, J.J. Redick, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Joe Harris could probably do better.

Still, the Warriors should keep an eye on that market to see if anyone slips through the cracks. A player like Rodney Hood, whose stock took a hit late in the 2017/18 season, could be an option. And sometimes impact players are unexpectedly willing to take a discount to sign in Golden State, given the team’s ability to compete for a title on an annual basis.

Faced with the possibility of losing four players who saw the majority of their minutes at center (Pachulia, West, McGee, and Looney), the Warriors can’t ignore that position entirely, but there’s probably no need to add more than one or two veteran bigs to the mix, especially if Bell and Jones are ready for larger roles. Kyle O’Quinn, who turned down his player option with the Knicks, is a popular hypothetical target for the Dubs.

5. Will the Warriors be able to add a contributor or two in the draft?

Having expressed a desire to get a little younger this summer, the Warriors likely won’t fill out their bench entirely with veterans. Golden State holds the No. 28 selection in what looks like a pretty deep draft, and there are whispers that the club has been looking to acquire a pick in the 30s too.

It remains to be seen if any team picking early in the second round will be open to selling a pick to the Warriors after all the criticism the Bulls took a year ago for doing just that. But the Dubs will be able to make a compelling offer, with all $5.1MM of their allotted trade money for 2018/19 still available.

Whether or not the Warriors acquire an extra selection, the No. 28 pick offers a good opportunity to land a young wing. Melvin Frazier, Hamidou Diallo, Jacob Evans, and Gary Trent Jr. are among the prospects in that range who worked out for the Warriors in the days leading up to the draft, and there’s no shortage of other candidates out there.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Stephen Curry ($37,457,154)
Klay Thompson ($18,988,725)
Draymond Green ($17,469,565)
Andre Iguodala ($16,000,000)
Shaun Livingston ($8,307,692)
Quinn Cook ($1,544,951)
Damian Jones ($1,544,951)
Jordan Bell ($1,378,242)
Jason Thompson ($945,126) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $103,636,406

Player Options

Kevin Durant ($26,250,000)
Total: $26,250,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

Patrick McCaw ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $1,699,698

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Nick Young ($6,230,400): Non-Bird rights
Zaza Pachulia ($4,520,880): Early Bird rights
Kevon Looney ($2,227,081): Bird rights¹
No. 28 overall pick ($1,630,249)
Matt Barnes ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
JaVale McGee ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
David West ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Total: $19,107,704

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Durant intends to opt out of his contract and sign a new deal with the Warriors. Even before taking that new deal into account, Golden State projects to be over the cap, with $103MM+ in guaranteed salaries.

Footnotes:

Looney’s Bird rights are limited because the Warriors declined the fourth-year option on his rookie scale contract. Any contract offer from Golden State can’t have a starting salary that exceeds his cap hold.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Houston Rockets

June 21st, 2018 at 11:01am CST by Luke Adams

Daryl Morey‘s plan to knock off the Warriors just about worked. Up 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets were faced with the challenge of winning one more game without star point guard Chris Paul in their lineup. Houston couldn’t pull it off, losing Game 6 in Oakland, then suffering through one of the worst shooting slumps in NBA history at home in Game 7.

While it may be tempting to view the series’ result – and the Warriors’ eventual title victory – as an inevitability, no NBA team in the last two years has pushed Golden State like the Rockets did, which is a sign that Houston is on the right track. Now, Morey and the front office will have to ensure they remain on that track, with several important players eligible for free agency this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Chris Paul and Clint Capela return?

Paul and Capela are two of the top seven or eight free agents available this offseason, and the Rockets could be in trouble if they fail to re-sign either one.

Paul’s impact is obvious. The veteran play-maker took the pressure off James Harden in 2017/18, sharing the ball-handling load when they played alongside each other and running the offense when Harden was on the bench. When the Rockets acquired him from the Clippers last year, CP3 had to opt into the final year of his previous contract rather than signing a new one, but there appeared to be a tacit understanding that he’d get a lucrative, long-term deal from Houston in 2018. That still seems like the probable outcome, and it would be a shock if he left at this point.

As for Capela, he has no All-Star appearances or All-NBA nods to his name, but the 24-year-old’s gradual improvement has made him an important part of this roster. He averaged a double-double (13.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG) in 2017/18, leading the NBA in FG% (.652) and anchoring Houston’s defense (1.9 BPG). While Capela doesn’t stretch the floor like some of the league’s elite young bigs, he does pretty much everything else you’d want from a center, effectively setting screens, finishing at the rim, and protecting the rim on the other end of the court.

Assuming Paul re-signs, the Rockets wouldn’t have any cap room to go out and make another impact signing, so bringing back Capela looks like the club’s best bet for staying strong at the five. The Rockets will just have to hope they aren’t faced with matching a massive offer sheet for Capela, who would be a much safer investment at $15-20MM per year than at $25MM annually.

2. Will Trevor Ariza re-sign with the Rockets?

Although Paul and Capela will be Houston’s top priorities in free agency, Ariza’s positive impact shouldn’t be overlooked, Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals notwithstanding. Up until that last game against the Warriors, Ariza had been a reliable three-and-D mainstay in the Rockets’ rotation all year long, making 36.8% of his three-point attempts during the regular season.

Players like Ariza and P.J. Tucker – who can hit corner threes and match up on defense with dangerous wing scorers – are crucial to Houston’s success, particularly against Golden State, so I expect the Rockets to make a strong effort to retain Ariza.

Ariza’s free agency reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala‘s a year ago. When Iguodala reached the open market, rival suitors – who recognized that poaching Iggy from the Warriors was the most viable way to hurt the defending champs – were aggressive in pursuing him. The Dubs ultimately won the bidding, but it cost them much more (three years, $48MM) than they would have liked to bring back Iguodala.

Teams in direct competition with the Rockets and in need of three-and-D wings could take a similar approach to Ariza’s free agency this summer, which is why a report suggesting the veteran forward is hoping for a $50-60MM payday isn’t as outrageous as it might seem.

While Ariza may not quite get that high, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he receives an offer worth $30MM+ or $40MM+. If he does, the Rockets will have to make a tough decision on whether he’s worth the investment or whether they can get similar production from more affordable players like Luc Mbah a Moute (who will also be a free agent).

3. How far into the luxury tax is new owner Tilman Fertitta willing to go?

Before we explore other roster additions for the Rockets, it’s worth taking a step back to examine just how much Rockets ownership is willing to pay in terms of team salary and tax penalties. Former owner Leslie Alexander didn’t hesitate the pay the luxury tax for a title contender, and Fertitta has indicated he’ll follow suit, but we haven’t seen evidence yet of just how big a tax bill he’s willing to stomach.

If the Rockets commit $50MM to Paul and Capela for 2018/19, it would increase the club’s guaranteed salaries to $127MM+ for just eight players, putting them well beyond the tax line with nearly half the roster still to fill out. From there, simply signing six more minimum-salary players would result in substantial penalties. Those penalties would increase further if Houston re-signs Ariza or other veterans for more than the minimum, or uses its taxpayer mid-level exception to bring in an outside free agent.

Fertitta knew this day was coming when he purchased the Rockets last year, so he won’t be caught off guard by the increasing costs of the roster, but until we see him sign off on a $140MM+ team salary, we won’t know with 100% certainty that it’s a pill he’s ready to swallow.

4. Can the Rockets find a taker for Ryan Anderson?

One way to cut costs would be to find someone willing to take on Anderson’s contract, which still has two years and nearly $42MM left on it. Of course, the Rockets have been looking for a trade partner for that deal for at least a year, to no avail.

On the surface, the Nets/Hornets swap that will send Timofey Mozgov (two years, $33MM) to Charlotte looks like a positive sign for the Rockets — those sort of contracts are movable. The Nets are giving up two second-round picks and cash in that trade, and have to take on one year of Dwight Howard ($23.5MM).

Still, there are several other factors in play in that deal: Howard reportedly wasn’t a fit in Charlotte from a chemistry and locker-room standpoint, particularly with Steve Clifford gone, so the Hornets were happy to get rid of him. The Hornets were also up against the tax line for 2018/19 and needed to cut costs for the coming year. Mozgov’s $16MM-ish annual salary isn’t quite as onerous as Anderson’s $20MM+. And, fair or not, teams might be less likely to bail out the 65-win Rockets by taking Anderson than they were with the 28-win Nets and Mozgov.

Taking on an even more expensive one-year contract like Howard’s would reduce the extra assets the Rockets have to include in a potential Anderson swap, as it did for the Nets. But if Houston’s goal is to shed salary for 2018/19, that won’t do much good.

The Brooklyn trade that more accurately represents what an Anderson deal might look like is the DeMarre Carroll swap from the 2017 offseason — in that move, the Nets took on Carroll’s exorbitant salary, sent a smaller unwanted contract of their own (Justin Hamilton) to Toronto, and received two draft picks (one first-rounder) for their troubles. In any Anderson trade, the Rockets would likely have to move at least one first-round pick and take on an unwanted contract that’s “less bad” than Anderson’s, as Toronto did.

5. Do the Rockets have a real shot at LeBron James?

Now that we’ve thoroughly examined the Rockets’ cap-related challenges, it’s time for the big question. Houston is reportedly considered one of a handful of viable destinations for LeBron, but how on earth could the Rockets land him, given their cap limitations?

The first step would be to get James to exercise his player option, as Paul did a year ago. If he doesn’t do that, his path to Houston becomes a whole lot trickier — the Rockets would likely have to let Capela walk, trade or stretch Anderson, and then work out a sign-and-trade for James. In that scenario, the Rockets would have to stay below the tax apron, as clubs who acquire a player in a sign-and-trade deal are hard-capped at that line.

But if James opts in, there’s a clearer path to a trade, since the Rockets wouldn’t have to worry about that tax apron. The Cavs would be extremely unlikely to take on Anderson’s contract, but a package of Gordon, Tucker, Nene, Chinanu Onuaku, Zhou Qi, and Aaron Jackson just barely works from a salary-matching perspective. Not all those players would appeal to Cleveland, but Gordon and Tucker could probably be flipped for positive value, and the others aren’t expensive. If the Rockets included a couple future first-round picks in their offer, the Cavs could do worse.

In that scenario, the Rockets would have Harden and James on massive deals. They’d still have Anderson under contract, and they’d look to re-sign Paul and Capela. If we once again assume a $50MM combined 2018/19 price tag for CP3 and Capela, that would add up to a staggering $136MM+ for five players, which wouldn’t exactly be ideal.

Nonetheless, Harden, James, Paul, and Capela could be the only attainable four-player group in the NBA with a realistic chance of getting past the Warriors next season, so if the Rockets have a chance to make it happen, I don’t doubt they’ll go for it.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

James Harden ($30,421,854)
Ryan Anderson ($20,421,546)
Eric Gordon ($13,500,375)
P.J. Tucker ($7,969,537)
Nene ($3,651,480)
Chinanu Onuaku ($1,544,951)
Troy Williams ($122,741) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $77,632,484

Player Options

None

Team Options

Aaron Jackson ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $1,378,242

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Zhou Qi ($1,378,242)
Total: $1,378,242

Restricted Free Agents

Clint Capela ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $7,003,584 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $7,003,584

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Chris Paul ($35,350,000): Bird rights²
Trevor Ariza ($14,099,732): Bird rights
Tarik Black ($3,948,000): Non-Bird rights
Gerald Green ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Joe Johnson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Luc Mbah a Moute ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $57,896,826

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

We’re assuming that the Rockets will keep cap holds for Paul and Capela on their books in an effort to re-sign both players. In that scenario, the team would remain well over the cap.
In the extremely unlikely event that Houston wants to clear space by parting with those two players and the rest of their free agents, the Rockets could get up to about $18.38MM in cap room without trading or cutting any guaranteed contracts.

Footnotes:

Jackson’s salary will remain non-guaranteed if his team option is exercised.
Based on CBA rules, Paul’s cap hold should be $36,899,243. However, his cap hold can’t exceed his maximum salary, which currently projects to be $35,350,000.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Toronto Raptors

June 21st, 2018 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

The most successful Raptors team ever finished 2017/18 with 59 wins and claimed the No. 1 seed in the East for the first time in club history. With a revamped offensive approach and a dynamic bench, the Raptors appeared poised to make a deep playoff run, but for a third straight year, LeBron James and the Cavaliers made quick of Dwane Casey‘s club in the postseason.

While no one in the Eastern Conference has defeated a LeBron-led team in the playoffs since 2010, Toronto’s four straight losses reflected particularly poorly on the club, considering the Pacers and Celtics both pushed the Cavs to seven games. As a result, Casey was dismissed and the Raps enter a second straight offseason weighing whether or not to make significant changes to a roster that won 50+ games.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Was firing Casey and replacing him with Nick Nurse the right move?

Casey, who was named the 2017/18 Coach of the Year by the National Basketball Coaches Association last month, is also a finalist for the NBA’s official Coach of the Year award. When the league announces the winner of that award next week, it’s entirely possible that Casey, now the Pistons’ head coach, will be formally recognized for his excellent work with the Raptors.

Why would a coach who had so much on-court success and who was so highly regarded in Toronto be fired, especially since the club eventually replaced him one of his top assistants? If the Raptors really felt they had to move on from Casey, wouldn’t it make sense to go in an entirely new direction? Wouldn’t Nurse, an assistant on Casey’s staff since 2013, already have shared many of his best ideas?

Those are fair questions, but I still believe there’s some sound logic behind the change. As good as he was at building a culture and developing players, Casey struggled with in-game adjustments, which hurt the Raptors at key moments in the postseason. Additionally, there were whispers in Toronto that Casey, a fairly conservative, defensive-minded coach, was more inclined to lean on his defense-first assistants like Rex Kalamian rather than Nurse, who received much of the credit for the Raps’ new-look offense.

While Nurse may not have been the Raptors’ first choice – the team reportedly coveted Mike Budenholzer before he was hired by the Bucks – he’s a creative thinker who will be willing to take some risks and experiment with new approaches. That could be just with the team needs.

2. Will the Raptors break up their All-Star backcourt?

Best friends Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have excelled in the regular season for years, but remain inconsistent in the Raptors’ biggest postseason games, raising questions about whether the team can ever seriously vie for a title with Lowry and DeRozan as its best players.

Even if the Raptors decide to trade one of its two star guards, it’s unclear if either player would return the sort of value the team would want. Lowry’s abilities as a play-maker, shooter, and defender are underrated to some extent, but he’s also 32 years old and is owed $64MM+ over the next two years.

As for DeRozan, he has established himself as one of the game’s most effective scorers, expanding his shooting range in 2017/18, but he’s still not a consistent three-point threat, and he’s a below-average defender. Like Lowry, he’s pricey too, with three years and $83MM left on his contract.

Lowry and DeRozan have positive trade value, but moving contracts of that magnitude is complicated — when the Pistons traded Blake Griffin and his $29MM+ salary earlier this year, the deal involved six players, plus draft picks. Putting together a blockbuster trade with Lowry or DeRozan at the center that would appeal to both the Raptors and another team would be tough. Making it a deal that allows Toronto to rework its roster without taking a step backward would be even tougher.

3. Who are the Raptors’ other trade candidates?

The Raptors have made it clear that they’d be willing to discuss any player on their roster and are even said to be exploring the market for a lottery pick, so no one is untouchable. Having said that, there are a handful of players that Toronto will be reluctant to move. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, for instance, look like long-term building blocks at the three and four, respectively. The Raptors would certainly prefer to trade the higher-priced veterans at those positions, like Serge Ibaka ($21.67MM) and C.J. Miles ($8.33MM), allowing the youngsters to take on larger roles.

The same could be said at center, where Jakob Poeltl often earned key minutes over Jonas Valanciunas ($16.54MM). However, Nurse is fond of Valanciunas and may like to see the club keep him around.

Toronto’s most obvious trade candidate is Norman Powell, who signed a four-year extension with the club last fall. At the time, locking up the young swingman – who had provided a spark in the playoffs and showed three-and-D potential – seemed like the savvy move. After a disappointing 2017/18 campaign, that four-year, $42MM investment looks like a misstep.

Still, Powell is young enough to bounce back, and there should be teams around the NBA willing to buy low on a high-energy wing who shot 35.1% on three-pointers prior to last season. Powell has a $1.47MM cap hit until June 30, so a team that wants to roll the dice on him could move quickly to avoid having to match his $9MM+ salary for 2018/19.

4. Will Fred VanVleet remain with the Raptors?

An undrafted rookie two years ago, VanVleet enjoyed a breakout season in 2017/18. He was the unofficial captain of the Raptors’ vaunted second unit, thriving against opposing teams’ benches and earning regular minutes in the club’s crunch-time lineups alongside Lowry and DeRozan.

VanVleet will be a restricted free agent this summer and GM Bobby Webster has said the team’s “highest priority” this offseason will be re-signing the young point guard. Negotiating with VanVleet directly would be preferable to waiting on an offer sheet, since the Arenas provision would allow a rival team to include a massive third-year raise in its offer, like the Nets did with Tyler Johnson in 2016 — Johnson’s cap hit will rise from $5.88MM to $19.25MM this summer as a result of that deal.

With Early Bird rights on VanVleet, the Raptors could offer a four-year deal worth up to about $9MM annually. That may seem like an overpay for someone whose NBA résumé is so limited, but it’s less than a third of what Lowry will earn per year, and VanVleet’s abilities as a defender and three-pointer shooter aren’t as far behind Lowry’s as you’d think.

5. Is Raptors ownership ready to pay the tax?

With Powell’s new extension about to kick in, the Raptors have a 2018/19 team salary of $126MM+ for just 11 players. That figure projects to cross the luxury tax line and doesn’t include a new deal for VanVleet.

Team ownership would likely be willing to foot a luxury tax bill for a title contender, but after a second consecutive second-round playoff exit, Toronto can’t afford to just run things back with the same group. Still, after giving up their 2018 first-round pick to dump DeMarre Carroll‘s contract last summer, the Raps also don’t want to make a habit of attaching good assets to bad contracts just to cut costs.

It’s a tough call for the franchise and one that ownership will be involved in. If the Raptors re-sign VanVleet, it would be hard to avoid becoming a taxpayer, but I’d expect the team to be a little more aggressive in that scenario in its attempts to move a contract or two. It’s also worth noting that Toronto could enter the season above the tax line and still make an effort to avoid the tax later in the year by making a mid-season trade or two.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Raptors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Lowry ($31,000,000)
DeMar DeRozan ($27,739,975)
Serge Ibaka ($21,666,667)
Jonas Valanciunas ($16,539,326)
Norman Powell ($9,367,200)
C.J. Miles ($8,333,333)
Jakob Poeltl ($2,947,320)
Delon Wright ($2,536,898)
OG Anunoby ($1,952,760)
Malachi Richardson ($1,569,360)
Pascal Siakam ($1,544,951)
Justin Hamilton ($1,000,000) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $126,197,790

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Alfonzo McKinnie ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $1,378,242

Restricted Free Agents

Lucas Nogueira ($4,140,964 qualifying offer / $8,841,915 cap hold): Bird rights
Nando De Colo ($1,828,750 qualifying offer / $1,901,900 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Fred VanVleet ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $12,443,513

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Lorenzo Brown ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Jason Thompson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $2,999,396

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

The Raptors have more than $126MM in guaranteed salaries on their books before even accounting for a raise for VanVleet. They won’t have cap space available.

Footnotes:

McKinnie’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 20.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Boston Celtics

June 20th, 2018 at 10:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Buoyed by savvy free agent signings, last summer’s acquisition of Kyrie Irving, and years of draft picks from 2013’s blockbuster Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade, the Celtics improved their regular-season win total for the fourth consecutive season in 2017/18, coming within one game of an NBA Finals appearance.

The team’s performance was made all the more remarkable by the fact that Gordon Hayward missed the entire season and Irving was unavailable during the playoffs. The absence of the Celtics’ two veteran stars allowed youngsters like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier to take on larger roles than anticipated, and those players thrived with their increased responsibilities.

Now, it will be fascinating to see what the C’s look like when their stars get healthy and those players on rookie contracts enter the season confident in their ability to be impact players.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Celtics make another major trade this offseason?

Before acquiring Irving from the Cavaliers last August, the Celtics seemed unwilling to dip into their treasure trove of assets for the league’s top trade candidates, most notably missing out on Paul George earlier that summer. However, the Irving deal showed that Danny Ainge and his front office were ready to pull the trigger when the right opportunity arises.

Unlike in 2016 and 2017, when the Celtics handed out maximum-salary contracts to Horford and Hayward, respectively, they’ll head into the 2018 offseason without any cap room available. That means the trade market represents Boston’s best chance to make another major splash.

The Celtics still have a ton of trade assets available, including future first-round picks from the Kings, Grizzlies, and Clippers, but they can afford to be patient and wait for the right opportunity, since their championship window should remain open for a while.

If Kawhi Leonard becomes available, he’d make sense as a trade target for the Celtics, but putting together a trade package could be tricky. The club doesn’t currently have any players set to earn between $7MM and $20MM in 2018/19, which makes salary-matching a chore. If Boston doesn’t want to part with Irving, Hayward, or Horford, that would mean building an offer using multiple young players, likely including Brown and Rozier.

A package headlined by Brown, Rozier, and the Kings’ 2019 first-round pick (top-1 protected) would probably appeal to the Spurs, but the Celtics would be rolling the dice on a player who is entering a contract year, coming off a major injury, and reportedly has a preference to play on the other side of the country (for the Lakers).

Given how cautious they were when they discussed trade targets like George and Jimmy Butler, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the C’s to go all-in on a risky investment like Leonard. Especially since we still haven’t seen how good the current core can be when everyone’s healthy.

2. Will the Celtics re-sign Marcus Smart?

Of course, that “current core” includes a couple players who will be free agents this summer, with Smart the most notable veteran in that group. While his shooting numbers haven’t improved during his four-year career, Smart is an elite perimeter defender and a culture-setting presence in Boston. His value extends far beyond his box-score numbers, and the Celtics figure to make a strong effort to keep him around.

With three max contracts already on their books and Brown and Tatum in line for massive new deals down the road, the Celtics will be wary of investing too heavily in Smart. Even if they can avoid the tax this season, the C’s will likely become a taxpaying club down the road, so any long-term commitment warrants serious consideration.

A $10-12MM annual salary for Smart would likely appeal to the Celtics, but the four-year veteran has already said he feels he’s worth more than $12-14MM per year. If another team agrees and signs him to an aggressive offer sheet – say, $60MM over four years – it would be very hard for the C’s to justify matching it.

It’s a good problem to have, but the downside of drafting well and effectively identifying talent is that you can’t necessarily afford to keep everyone. In the coming weeks, Smart may become a casualty of the front office’s success.

3. Will the Celtics extend Terry Rozier?

While Smart’s rookie deal expires this offseason, Rozier remains under contract for one more year, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension as of July 1. Rozier, who emerged as a play-maker and shot-maker in Irving’s absence, has a different skill set than Smart, but the duo’s positional overlap means their futures in Boston may be tied together. If the Celtics invest heavily in Smart, it would reduce the odds of a lucrative long-term deal for Rozier, and vice versa.

With Smart’s future likely to be determined in July, the Celtics can afford to wait on extension talks with Rozier. If Smart re-signs, the team may be more inclined to include Rozier in a trade package for an impact player. If not, those extension negotiations will likely take place before the 2018/19 regular-season opener.

Ultimately, I don’t expect the Celtics and Rozier to come together on an extension agreement this year. That doesn’t mean Rozier’s days in Boston are numbered, but it means that it makes some sense for both sides to take a wait-and-see approach. The Celtics will still have the right of first refusal on Rozier as a restricted free agent in 2019, which is the same year Irving can reach the open market.

4. How will the Celtics address the center position?

While Horford has been a center throughout his 11-year NBA career, Basketball-Reference’s positional data indicates he only played 57% of his minutes at the five in 2017/18. Against certain teams and certain lineups, it made more sense for Horford to play the four, alongside a center like Aron Baynes, Daniel Theis, or Greg Monroe.

Theis has a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2018/19, and after a strong first season in Boston, it’s a no-brainer to bring him back. However, Baynes and Monroe will both be unrestricted free agents. I don’t expect the Celtics to have much interest in re-signing Monroe, and Baynes might have priced himself out of the team’s range with a strong year — he even flashed outside shooting potential at the end of the season, making 11 of 23 three-pointers in the playoffs.

If Baynes and Monroe don’t return, the Celtics may have to scour the free agent market in search of another bargain at the five after investing approximately $5MM in Baynes and Theis for the 2017/18 season.

One intriguing candidate would be Nerlens Noel, whose stock has taken a hit after underwhelming stints in Philadelphia and Dallas. The former lottery pick is still only 24 years old and has potential that has yet to be unlocked. While Brad Stevens may not be able to turn him into the player he was expected to become out of Kentucky, Noel seems capable of giving the Celtics a solid 20 minutes per game, pairing with Horford to create an imposing defensive duo up front.

If there’s no mutual interest between Noel and the Celtics, Tarik Black, Alex Len, and Kyle O’Quinn are among the other veteran free agents the club could kick the tires on.

5. What will the Celtics do with the No. 27 pick?

While the Celtics have had a ton of draft success in recent years, it’s easier to strike gold with a top-three pick than it is at No. 27. Boston’s scouting department will be put to the test this year as the team looks to add another promising young prospect to its core.

Fortunately for the C’s, the back half of the first round this year looks to be littered with the kind of players the organization loves. This year’s draft class is a deep one, and is heavy on wings.

At No. 27, it’s possible that guys like Troy Brown, Kevin Huerter, Josh Okogie, Dzanan Musa, Chandler Hutchison, Donte DiVincenzo, and Grayson Allen will no longer be available. But even if they aren’t, the Celtics could still have several good options, including Bruce Brown, Jacob Evans, Khyri Thomas,and Melvin Frazier.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Celtics financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Gordon Hayward ($31,214,295)
Al Horford ($28,928,710)
Kyrie Irving ($20,099,189)
Jayson Tatum ($6,700,800)
Marcus Morris ($5,375,000)
Jaylen Brown ($5,169,960)
Terry Rozier ($3,050,390)
Guerschon Yabusele ($2,667,600)
Semi Ojeleye ($901,965) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Abdel Nader ($450,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
Demetrius Jackson ($92,857) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $104,650,766

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Daniel Theis ($1,378,242)³
Abdel Nader ($928,242) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
Semi Ojeleye ($476,277) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $2,782,761

Restricted Free Agents

Marcus Smart ($6,053,719 qualifying offer / $13,614,060 cap hold): Bird rights
Jonathan Gibson ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $15,313,758

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Greg Monroe ($6,000,000): Non-Bird rights
Aron Baynes ($5,193,600): Non-Bird rights
No. 27 overall pick ($1,640,266)
Shane Larkin ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $14,333,564

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

After carrying cap room and vying for the top free agents during the last couple offseasons, the Celtics head into the summer of 2018 over the cap. Even if they renounce all their free agents, they’d still be over the projected $101MM cap line due to their $104MM+ in guaranteed salaries. With their eight fully guaranteed contracts, plus Theis, Ojeleye, Nader, and the cap hold for their first-round pick, the Celtics’ total team salary increases to $109,073,793.

Footnotes:

Ojeleye’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Nader’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Theis’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

June 20th, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

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Five Key Offseason Questions: Philadelphia 76ers

June 20th, 2018 at 12:48pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2017/18 season was essentially a best-case scenario for the Sixers and true believers in “The Process.” Former top picks Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons stayed healthy and established themselves as bona-fide NBA stars, and despite getting virtually nothing from 2017’s No. 1 selection Markelle Fultz, the Sixers piled up 52 wins, earned the No. 3 seed in the East, and advanced to the second round of the playoffs.

Fultz’s lost rookie season is somewhat concerning, and it’s not clear if Philadelphia is quite out of the woods yet when it comes to Embiid’s health, but this is a team on the rise. With another lottery pick at their disposal in 2018, along with a significant chunk of cap room, the Sixers are also better positioned than just about any other contender to make another major addition or two to their roster this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Sixers be able to lure a top free agent to Philadelphia?

With a playmaking point guard (Simmons) and a big man who can knock down outside shots and protect the rim (Embiid), the Sixers have two key cornerstone pieces in place. Using this summer’s cap flexibility, the club should now make it a priority to add a wing with size who can stretch the floor. Fortunately, two of 2018’s top free agents – LeBron James and Paul George – fit that bill.

If he wants to continue his streak of NBA Finals appearances and add more titles to his résumé, Philadelphia is a logical landing spot for James. The club should be able to create enough cap space to sign him outright, meaning there would be no need to give up valuable assets to acquire him in a trade. On top of that, this is a team that already had enough talent to win 52 games and a playoff series. Adding LeBron to the mix would create a force to be reckoned with in the East.

Still, as silly as it feels to play devil’s advocate to the idea of signing the best player in the NBA, I can’t help but wonder if George makes more sense as a target for the 76ers. Embiid and Simmons put their mark in the franchise in 2017/18, establishing the Sixers as their team. They’re still on the rise and have the potential to be the top two players on a championship club someday — having them take a back seat to LeBron might create some chemistry issues both on the court and off it.

Of course, if LeBron wants to join the Sixers, I don’t expect the team to turn him down, and I’m sure it’d be a fine fit in the long run. But if landing James is the club’s No. 1 offseason priority, George makes for an intriguing 1A. His stints in Indiana and Oklahoma City have shown that he may be more comfortable when he’s not a club’s go-to option, and he’s exactly the sort of player any contending team would love to have as a second or third scoring option and a lock-down defender on the wing.

2. What’s the best route to maximum-salary cap room for the Sixers?

Whether they pursue James, George, another impact free agent, or all of the above, the Sixers will probably need to create a little more cap room than they currently have available. Our estimate currently has them about $25MM under the cap, assuming they keep their nine players on guaranteed contracts, along with T.J. McConnell, Richaun Holmes, and their two first-round picks.

Based on a $101MM salary cap projection for 2018/19, the Sixers would have to get to $30.3MM in room for a maximum-salary deal for George or another free agent with 7-9 years of NBA experience. For James or another player with 10+ years of experience, $35.35MM in cap room would be required.

The 76ers can actually get to $30.3MM+ in cap room pretty painlessly without even having to get another team involved. Using their No. 26 pick on a draft-and-stash prospect and waiving and stretching Bayless’ expiring contract would do the trick.

However, in order to get to $35MM+ in space, attaching that late first-round pick to Bayless in a trade would be the preferred option. If the Sixers were to package Bayless and the No. 26 pick in a trade without taking back any salary in return, the club could then create enough room for a $35.35MM offer by waiving one of Holmes or McConnell.

With plenty of appealing assets under team control, there are other paths Philadelphia could take to open up cap room. If a marquee free agent targeted by the Sixers wants to sign with the team, the front office will find a way to make it happen.

3. What’s Plan B for the Sixers?

If James and George return to their current teams or team up on the Lakers, which direction will the Sixers go? There are other free agents out there who could fit nicely on the roster, but Philadelphia should avoid investing long-term money in a second- or third-tier target just because that money is available.

The Sixers still have enough future cap flexibility that they can afford to look to 2019’s free agent period as a backup plan. Preserving as much cap room as possible for ’19 would mean taking a similar approach this offseason to the one they took last year, when they signed veterans like J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson to lucrative one-year contracts. Now that the 76ers have had some real success, there are probably plenty of useful rotation players who would sign on for that sort of deal — I’d expect Redick to be one of them.

Philadelphia could also take advantage of its cap flexibility on the trade market. Kawhi Leonard looks like a prime target for the Sixers, who could structure an offer to the Spurs in a number of ways. Because the Sixers have excess cap room, they wouldn’t necessarily have to match Leonard’s salary, meaning they could put together a package heavy on draft picks and light on players. Alternately, if San Antonio asks for a couple players from the Fultz/Robert Covington/Dario Saric group, the Sixers could add Bayless to the package and make a play for Leonard while retaining their cap space for an impact free agent or two.

4. What will the Sixers do with the No. 10 pick?

The Sixers could use the No. 10 pick as a centerpiece in a trade offer for a player like Leonard. They could also package it with other assets in an effort to move even higher in the draft, as has been rumored. But let’s assume they stay put and pick a player at No. 10. Who are the best bets to become Sixers in that scenario?

Villanova’s Mikal Bridges has been a popular target for the Sixers in mock drafts for several weeks, and there’s reportedly strong mutual interest between the two sides. A three-and-D wing, Bridges would be an ideal fit in Philadelphia, and the fact that he’s a local product is just a bonus.

Kevin Knox is another interesting option for the Sixers at No. 10, assuming he’s still on the board. Like Bridges, Knox has shown the ability to knock down open shots and defend multiple positions. While his floor may be lower than Bridges’, Knox could have the higher ceiling — there’s a belief that he still has plenty of room to grow.

Drafting a point guard with their lottery selection after using the No. 1 overall pick to address that spot in back-to-back years seems unlikely for the Sixers, which reduces the odds of the club nabbing a player like Collin Sexton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Trae Young. If they do look at that group, Young might be the best fit alongside Simmons and Fultz, given his upside as a three-point shooter. He made 118 threes in just 32 games for Oklahoma last season. Gilgeous-Alexander’s versatility could also appeal to the 76ers.

5. How will not having a permanent general manager impact the Sixers’ offseason?

In one of the most bizarre NBA stories in recent years, 76ers president of basketball operations and GM Bryan Colangelo was dismissed by the team earlier this month after investigators confirmed that his wife had been operating “burner” Twitter accounts that criticized Sixers players and disclosed sensitive information about the franchise.

With Colangelo out of the picture, head coach Brett Brown is running the team’s basketball operations department on an interim basis. VP of player personnel Marc Eversley and VP of basketball operations Ned Cohen will play significant roles too.

The upheaval in the front office shouldn’t affect the Sixers’ draft plans, as the team’s board was likely all but set several weeks before June 21. But it will be interesting to see how eager or reluctant Philadelphia is to pull the trigger on major free agent signings or trades this summer. The time is ripe for the Sixers to complete a significant roster move or two, and I don’t expect the club to take a quiet, conservative approach to the offseason while it waits for ownership to bring in a new GM.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Sixers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Joel Embiid ($25,250,000)¹
Robert Covington ($10,464,092)
Jerryd Bayless ($8,575,916)
Markelle Fultz ($8,339,880)
Ben Simmons ($6,434,520)
Dario Saric ($2,526,840)
Justin Anderson ($2,516,048)
Furkan Korkmaz ($1,740,000)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($1,544,951)
Total: $67,392,247

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Richaun Holmes ($1,600,520)
T.J. McConnell ($1,600,520)
Total: $3,201,040

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

J.J. Redick ($27,600,000): Non-Bird rights
Amir Johnson ($13,200,000): Non-Bird rights
No. 10 overall pick ($3,522,533)
Anzejs Pasecniks ($1,746,957)²
No. 26 overall pick ($1,689,080)
Marco Belinelli ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Ersan Ilyasova ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $50,757,966

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $25,195,100

Our cap projection for the Sixers includes their nine guaranteed contracts, non-guaranteed salaries for Holmes and McConnell, and the cap holds for their two first-round picks. That cap projection, which adds up to a total team salary of $75,804,900, involves renouncing all their own free agents, including Redick.

Footnotes:

Embiid will have a maximum salary worth 25% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
Pasecniks was the Sixers’ 25th overall pick in 2017, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 25 pick. That cap hold will be removed if it’s officially determined that Pasecniks won’t sign with the Sixers for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 20th, 2018 at 8:06am CST by Luke Adams

No team has had a more dramatic 2017/18 league year than the Cavaliers, who dealt with Kyrie Irving‘s trade request last offseason, underwent multiple roster overhauls, improbably made it back to the NBA Finals, and are now facing the prospect of losing LeBron James — again.

The Cavaliers’ comeback in the 2016 NBA Finals to erase a 3-1 deficit and knock off the 73-win Warriors earned James the right to leave on better terms this time around than he did in 2010, but the club would still prefer to have him stick around a little longer. His decision will ultimately be the catalyst that determines which direction the Cavs will go for the next several years.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. So… what’s LeBron going to do?

The two best players in the NBA are eligible for free agency this summer, but Kevin Durant is a lock to re-sign with the Warriors, making LeBron’s decision the offseason’s most important subplot. At this point, his options have been discussed ad nauseam. The Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Spurs, Heat, and even the Warriors look like potential threats to the Cavs, and that’s not taking into account any potential wild-card suitors that arise during his decision-making process.

I’ve already written at length about the various factors that will play a role in James’ decision, but even after endless speculation, it doesn’t feel like we’re any closer to figuring out where he’ll end up. Every potential landing spot has its pros and cons, which could work in Cleveland’s favor, forcing the future Hall-of-Famer to seriously consider the possibility of simply sticking with the Cavs rather than leaving for any number of imperfect options.

Still, it would be somewhat surprising if James re-upped with the Cavs. He accomplished what he set out to to do when he returned to the franchise in 2014, winning a title for his hometown team. From an on-court perspective, there are better opportunities out there for him. From a marketing and lifestyle perspective, moving to a bigger market like Los Angeles would make sense. It just seems like there’s too much working against the Cavs.

That doesn’t mean that a return to Cleveland is out of the question, but if I had to bet on James starting the 2018/19 season with either the Cavs or one of the NBA’s other 29 teams, I’d take the field.

2. What should the Cavaliers do with the No. 8 pick?

While it’s possible that James will no longer be a Cavalier at this time next month, the team can’t approach the offseason as if he’s already gone. By all accounts, LeBron has yet to make a final decision, so the Cavs’ moves in the next week or two could push him in one direction or the other.

That puts the Cavs in an incredibly tough spot with their lottery pick. If the club knew James would leave, it would make sense for the front office to target the player with the highest long-term ceiling at No. 8, in the hopes of identifying a franchise player for the post-LeBron era. With no assurances one way or the other, Cleveland will have to straddle the fence, finding a player who could play alongside James or who could develop and thrive on a new-look Cavs roster.

Of course, if the Cavs really want to make a strong pitch to James, packaging the No. 8 pick in a deal for another star would represent the all-in approach. Even if the club could find a workable trade for someone like Kemba Walker or Kawhi Leonard though, it would provide no guarantees on the LeBron front. Both Walker and Leonard are eligible for free agency in 2019 and aren’t well positioned to sign extensions before then, so it’s unlikely that acquiring one of them would prompt James to commit to more than one extra year in Cleveland.

Ultimately, the Cavs probably need to take the best player available at No. 8, regardless of that player’s fit, his ability to make an immediate impact, or his appeal to trade partners. If need be, the front office could always shop that player in July after finding out what James plans to do.

3. What would the roster look like if James returns?

Let’s assume that James announces he’ll stick with the Cavs, either opting into the final year of his contract or signing a longer-term pact. What could we reasonably expect the Cavs’ roster to look like in 2018/19?

General manager Koby Altman has already shown a willingness to make major changes to the roster on the fly during his first year on the job, and I imagine he’d look to take more big swings this offseason. The roster that finished the 2018/19 season probably isn’t going to knock off the Warriors anytime soon, but there are plenty of salvageable assets under team control.

George Hill and J.R. Smith will essentially be on expiring deals, given their limited guarantees in 2019/20, which could make them trade chips, albeit ones who would be used primarily for salary matching rather than ones who would have positive value. Love’s trade value should be higher, even if it’s not what it once was, and the Cavs would probably make an effort to flip him for an impact wing or center who would help fortify the defense.

This year’s No. 8 pick is the team’s best trade chip and could be a sweetener in any major deal. The Cavs don’t have their 2019 first-round pick, but could make their 2021 or 2023 first-rounders available if they get really aggressive. The club would probably like to keep young players like Larry Nance and Cedi Osman, but Ante Zizic could be another trade piece.

What would the end result ultimately look like? Maybe the Cavs could trade Hill, Smith, and the No. 8 pick for Walker and Nicolas Batum. Maybe they could move Love in a deal for a wing like Otto Porter or a center like DeAndre Jordan. A series of roster moves along those lines might make the team more interesting, but it’s not clear how much it would improve Cleveland’s ceiling.

4. What would the roster look like if James leaves?

Considering what the Cavs’ roster might look like without LeBron is fascinating. The front office has conveyed a desire to avoid a full-fledged rebuild, but the roster isn’t exactly packed with long-term building blocks. At the very least, the Cavs would probably have to undergo a retooling period, which would likely start with exploring the trade market for Love in an effort to acquire young players or draft picks.

The makeup of the Cavs’ roster without James would also hinge on how exactly he leaves Cleveland. If he decides he wants to join a team without the cap room necessary to sign him outright, a sign-and-trade deal is one possibility. Exercising his 2018/19 player option to clear the way for a standard trade is another. Either route could net the Cavs some assets, but they shouldn’t feel obliged to go out of their way to accommodate LeBron’s new team.

Losing LeBron for nothing would hurt, but the Cavs would at least move well below the tax line in that scenario, avoiding the league’s punitive repeater tax penalties. In any trade involving James, owner Dan Gilbert would have no interest in taking back overpriced, unwanted pieces that would push Cleveland back over that tax line, even if those pieces could help the Cavs return to the playoffs next season.

Despite having multiple overpriced veterans on their books at the moment, the Cavs actually have significant flexibility in the long term — currently, the club doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on its 2020/21 cap. If James leaves, the team will want to maintain that flexibility, only making long-term commitments if the investments are sound.

5. Will the Cavaliers sign Larry Nance Jr. to an extension?

Speaking of long-term investments, the Cavs have decisions to make on two young players this offseason, with Rodney Hood eligible for restricted free agency and Nance up for a rookie scale extension.

While I expect Cleveland to give Hood a qualifying offer, I’d be a little surprised if the club negotiates a new multiyear deal for him– the fourth-year shooting guard didn’t provide the sort of consistent scoring punch the Cavs were looking for after coming over from Utah at the trade deadline. If he doesn’t receive any great offers from rival teams, it’s possible Hood returns on a team-friendly contract, but otherwise I think the Cavs will let him move on.

Nance’s case is a more interesting one to monitor, even though he’ll remain under contract for next season whether or not the Cavs extend him this offseason. The team and player reportedly have mutual interest in a new agreement, and the timing could work out well for Cleveland — by the time a Nance extension would take effect, Love, Hill, and Smith could all be essentially off the Cavs’ cap, freeing up a ton of space.

The Cavs surrendered a first-round pick and took on Jordan Clarkson‘s contract in order to acquire Nance earlier this year. I’d expect the club to do all it can to lock him up at a reasonable rate in the coming months, perhaps making him the first player to receive a guarantee from the Cavs beyond 2020.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Cavaliers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kevin Love ($24,119,025)
George Hill ($19,000,000)
Tristan Thompson ($17,469,565)
J.R. Smith ($14,720,000)
Jordan Clarkson ($12,500,000)
Kyle Korver ($7,560,000)
Cedi Osman ($2,775,000)
Larry Nance Jr. ($2,272,391)
Ante Zizic ($1,952,760)
Total: $102,368,741

Player Options

LeBron James ($35,607,968)
Total: $35,607,968

Team Options

Kendrick Perkins ($2,445,085)
Total: $2,445,085

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Okaro White ($1,544,951)¹
Total: $1,544,951

Restricted Free Agents

Rodney Hood ($3,472,887 qualifying offer / $7,160,592 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $7,160,592

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 8 overall pick ($4,033,884)
Jose Calderon ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Dahntay Jones ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
James Jones ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Jeff Green ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Shawn Marion ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Deron Williams ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $13,032,072

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even without taking James into consideration, the Cavaliers have $102MM+ in guaranteed salaries, nudging them over the projected $101MM cap. As such, there’s virtually no chance Cleveland will have cap room this summer.

Footnotes:

White’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors’ 2018 NBA Mock Draft

June 19th, 2018 at 2:55pm CST by Hoops Rumors

With the 2018 NBA draft just two days away, it’s time to reveal Hoops Rumors’ own mock draft. Arthur Hill and Chris Crouse of Hoops Rumors have tackled the 2018 first round, alternating picks and providing their thoughts and rationale for each selection.

Our mock draft isn’t necessarily a reflection of what we think will happen on Thursday night, but rather what Arthur and Chris feel each team should do with the 30 first-round picks. Our draft also doesn’t include trades, so a busy week on the trade market could significantly alter our projected order.

After checking out our picks, be sure to head to the comments section to weigh in with your own thoughts, opinions, and predictions.

Let’s dive in…

1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C (Arizona)

Arthur Hill: The Suns, who entered the offseason hoping to find an answer at center, got lucky in the lottery and won the chance to draft Ayton. He was a difference maker in college at both ends of the court, though scouts believe his offense is ahead of his defense at the NBA level. He and Devin Booker should be an exciting combination for many years to come.

2. Sacramento Kings: Michael Porter Jr., F (Missouri)

Chris Crouse: The Kings are reportedly seriously considering Porter Jr. and it’s easy to see why. The versatile forward may be the draft’s biggest risk/reward prospect, but he has the talent to be a franchise player. Nobody wants to see another Joel Embiid situation where a top prospect, falling because of health concerns, ends up being the best player in the draft. Porter can be that kind of special player and the risk is worth the reward.

3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., F/C (Michigan State)

AH: It could be a coin flip for the Hawks between Jackson and Marvin Bagley III. Bagley provides more punch on offense, but Jackson is far more advanced on the defensive end. Jackson could turn into a dominant shot blocker with a 7’4″ wingspan and seems like a better fit next to John Collins.

4. Memphis Grizzlies: Luka Doncic, PG (Real Madrid)

CC: If Doncic is still available at No. 4, the Grizzlies’ phone should be ringing off the hook. The Sixers are looking to trade up and he’d be a great fit to help complete the process. If Memphis stays put, Doncic would be a nice pick to play alongside Mike Conley to try and squeeze one more playoff run out of what’s remaining from the Grit-and-Grind era.

5. Dallas Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III, F/C (Duke)

AH: The Mavericks are happy to see Bagley slide to fifth and will snap up the draft’s most offensively skilled big man. Dallas can address its needs at center on the free agent market, as Bagley provides an inside scoring threat the team has lacked along with an aggressive rebounder. Bagley averaged a double-double in his lone season at Duke and appears capable of posting similar numbers at the NBA level.

6. Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG (Oklahoma)

CC: The Magic need playmakers. Given his shooting and passing ability, Young fits the job description. He’d make a great sidekick next to Jonathan Issac as a pillar of the future in Orlando.

7. Chicago Bulls: Mohamed Bamba, C (Texas)

AH: The Bulls have young talent in place at nearly every position, but they need a long-term replacement for 30-year-old Robin Lopez. With a 7’9″ wingspan and impeccable defensive instincts, Bamba will provide an anchor for an often-porous defense and could develop into the NBA’s next great shot blocker. The Bulls can plug Bamba into the middle and wait for his offensive game to develop.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Collin Sexton, PG (Alabama)

CC: LeBron James and his camp are reportedly high on Sexton, and he makes sense as a prospect for the Cavs regardless of whether LBJ remains in town.

9. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter Jr., C (Duke)

AH: With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined by a torn ACL and Enes Kanter still mulling over his player-option decision, the Knicks are going to need help up front. At 263 pounds, Carter has the size to compete with NBA big men, along with the skills to succeed on the perimeter. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor calls Carter the best passing big man in the lottery, and he looks like a nice long-term running mate for Porzingis.

10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF (Villanova)

CC: Bridges can be a nice addition to a team that’s developing in ways only Sam Hinkie imagined. The Villanova product can slot into Philadelphia’s rotation on day one.

11. Charlotte Hornets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G (Kentucky)

AH: The Hornets need to start developing a replacement for Kemba Walker, who can reach unrestricted free agency next year and may even be traded this summer. Gilgeous-Alexander is an intriguing option with his advanced defensive skills and the size to play either backcourt position.

12. Los Angeles Clippers: Kevin Knox, F (Kentucky)

CC: While still a bit raw, Knox has the shooting and defensive chops to be a major player in the league. He’ll fit in well behind Tobias Harris for a year before the veteran hits the free agent market.

13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C (Texas A&M)

AH: Los Angeles could have an immediate need at center if DeAndre Jordan opts out. Williams provides many of the same skills with his ability to finish on the pick-and-roll, rebound and patrol the middle on defense.

14. Denver Nuggets: Miles Bridges, F (Michigan State)

CC: Bridges, who should be able to play the three and four in the modern NBA, looks like an ideal long-term partner for Nikola Jokic due to his ability to space the floor and guard several positions. He’s capable of immediately providing help off the bench and could be Paul Millsap‘s eventual replacement at power forward.

15. Washington Wizards: Lonnie Walker IV, SG (Miami)

AH: Guard isn’t a position of need in Washington, but Walker is too talented to pass up at No. 15. He’s explosive off the dribble, loves to attack the rim and can match up with three positions on defense.

16. Phoenix Suns: Elie Okobo, PG (Pau-Orthez)

CC: Elfrid Payton might be back with Phoenix, but he’s merely a placeholder until the Suns find a long-term answer at the point guard position. Okobo, who is a tremendous passer, could be that answer. At the price of a mid-first-rounder, he’s worth the risk for the franchise.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Zhaire Smith, SF (Texas Tech)

AH: Smith would be a fantastic addition to the Bucks’ collection of athletically gifted players. Scouts love his ability to finish at the rim, and he’s a relentless defender who can handle guards and wings.

18. San Antonio Spurs: Troy Brown, SG (Oregon)

CC: Brown might take some time to develop, especially with his shooting, but his size and strength make him an intriguing option for a team that could be in transition this summer.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jerome Robinson, PG (Boston College)

AH: Robinson continued to develop his offensive arsenal during a stellar junior season at Boston College. He hit better than 40% from three-point range, can shoot effectively off the dribble and has the size and versatility to handle either backcourt position.

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Chandler Hutchison, G/F (Boise State)

CC: Depth on the wing is an area Minnesota needs to address this offseason and while Hutchison lacks major upside, he should be able to compete for a spot in the rotation right away.

21. Utah Jazz: Donte DiVincenzo, G (Villanova)

AH: The hero of this year’s NCAA championship game gives the Jazz another tough competitor off the bench. Dante Exum isn’t certain to return and Ricky Rubio will be a free agent next summer, so Utah needs to starting thinking about the future of its backcourt.

22. Chicago Bulls: Mitchell Robinson, C (Western Kentucky)

CC: The big man has potential to turn into a 10-year starter, though that outcome is far from certain. The Bulls can afford to be patient and take a risk on Robinson, who has never played in college or at a high international level.

23. Indiana Pacers: Aaron Holiday, PG (UCLA)

AH: It’s time to find a future running mate for Victor Oladipo. Darren Collison turns 31 this summer and isn’t signed past next season. Holiday displayed his scoring prowess as a junior at UCLA and his skills should translate well to the NBA.

24. Portland Trail Blazers: Keita Bates-Diop, PF (Ohio State)

CC: Bates-Diop is a project, but his length and versatility make drafting him a worthwhile venture. He could be a long-term fixture for the Blazers next to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, assuming the franchise doesn’t break up its talented backcourt.

25. Los Angeles Lakers: De’Anthony Melton, G (USC)

AH: The Lakers stay close to home for this pick, adding an athletic scorer from USC who can also help as a playmaker and defender. In the unlikely event that the Lakers part with Lonzo Ball during their offseason quest for veteran stars, Melton would provide a nice replacement.

26. Philadelphia 76ers: Dzanan Musa, SF (Cedevita)

CC: Another international project for Philadelphia. Musa is one of the youngest players in the draft, turning 19 in May, and he has the upside to be a productive wing in the NBA.

27. Boston Celtics: Kevin Huerter, SG (Maryland)

AH: Huerter slides a little bit after hand surgery that limited his workouts, but there’s no doubt the Maryland product can play. He is an effective shooter from all over the court and at 6’7″ has the size to handle multiple positions.

28. Golden State Warriors: Josh Okogie, SG (Georgia Tech)

CC: Okogie has the tools to become a premier perimeter defender and Golden State can give him the time to develop into a solid rotational piece.

29. Brooklyn Nets: Jacob Evans, G/F (Cincinnati)

AH: The Nets would prefer to trade up, but Evans is a nice consolation prize if they can’t. He’s a versatile scorer who can get points on the move or from his post-up game. He is also an above-average defensive player who excels at blocking shots.

30) Atlanta Hawks: Gary Trent Jr., SG (Duke)

CC: Trent Jr. is an excellent three-point shooter, though he needs to work on his defense at the next level. Perhaps the Duke product can develop into a Robert Covington-type player for new Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce, a former Sixers assistant.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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