Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Over-38 Rule

June 15th, 2018 at 8:18am CST by Luke Adams

The Over-38 rule, formerly known as the Over-36 rule under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, closes a loophole in the CBA, preventing teams from paying older free agents more than their cap room or cap exceptions allow. It also limits the ability of players in their mid- to late-30s to sign long-term contracts.

The original purpose of the Over-38 rule was to block teams from circumventing the salary cap by offering a contract that extends beyond when the club expects a player to end his career. For instance, if a team wanted to offer a 37-year-old free agent a two-year contract worth $35MM but only had the mid-level exception available, the team could have made it a four-year offer in order to fit the average annual salary within the MLE, knowing that the player could collect his third- and fourth-year salaries after retiring. The Over-38 rule prevents that.

The Over-38 rule generally takes effect when a free agent signs a long-term contract that extends beyond his 38th birthday. In these cases, the salary in the year(s) after the player turns 38 is considered deferred compensation, and is applied to the years earlier in the contract, when that salary is actually being earned. In most cases, this prevents the team from completing the contract using the necessary cap room or exception.

The Over-38 rule is a little complicated, so let’s use a real-life example to illustrate it. In the summer of 2017, the Rockets and Nene fell victim to the Over-38 rule when they tried to complete a four-year deal using Nene’s Non-Bird rights. The contract would’ve looked like this:

Year	Salary
2017/18	$3,477,600
2018/19	$3,651,480
2019/20	$3,825,360
2020/21	$3,999,240
Total	$14,953,680

Unfortunately for Nene and the Rockets, the final year of this deal would have violated the Over-38 rule because the veteran center will turn 38 on September 13, 2020, prior to the start of the fourth season of his contract.

The start of a season is considered to be October 1 for Over-38 purposes, so if Nene’s birthday was on October 13 rather than September 13, he would have been okay. But because a four-year deal for him had to be considered an Over-38 contract, the fourth-year salary needed to be viewed as deferred compensation, which would be spread out in a prorated fashion over the first three years of the deal. It would have looked like this:

Year	Salary	Deferred Compensation	Cap Charge
2017/18	$3,477,600	$1,269,600	$4,747,200
2018/19	$3,651,480	$1,333,080	$4,984,560
2019/20	$3,825,360	$1,396,560	$5,221,920
2020/21	$3,999,240	$0	$0
Total	$14,953,680	$3,999,240	$14,953,680

Due to the increased cap hits on the new-look deal, the contract would have violated the rules of the Non-Bird exception, which limited Nene’s first-year salary to 120% of his previous salary ($2,898,000). As such, the Rockets couldn’t complete the four-year contract using those Non-Bird rights.

It’s important to note that the Over-38 rule didn’t prevent the Rockets from signing Nene to a four-year, $15MM deal. If the team had wanted to use part of its mid-level exception, it could have given him that same contract the two sides originally negotiated. But Houston had earmarked its MLE for P.J. Tucker, leaving the Non-Bird exception as the team’s only viable means of bringing back Nene. So while Nene technically could have signed a contract that extended beyond his 38th birthday, the Over-38 rule significantly limited the Rockets’ ability to complete such a deal.

In Nene’s case, that fourth year was referred to as a “zero year,” reflecting the adjusted cap charge. Determining what seasons are considered “zero years” is tricky, since a variety of factors relating to the length of the contract, the player’s age, and the player’s Bird rights are taken into account. Here are some of those factors:

The Over-38 rule only applies to four- or five-year contracts, or extensions that keep a player under contract for a total of four or five years.
The first “zero year” is either the fourth season of the contract or the first season after the player’s 38th birthday, whichever comes later.
Players who re-sign with their previous teams prior to October 1 using full Bird rights get some extra leeway. If a player who is 35 or 36 years old signs a four-year contract with his previous team using Bird rights, the Over-38 rule wouldn’t apply. If that player signs a five-year contract, only the fifth season would be considered a zero year. In other words, if Nene had full Bird rights last summer, his four-year deal wouldn’t have been subject to the Over-38 rule.
These special exceptions for players with Bird rights don’t apply to players who change teams via a sign-and-trade.

If the Over-38 rule doesn’t already sound complicated enough, there’s an additional aspect of the rule that affects what happens when a veteran on an Over-38 contract plays out most or all of his deal. In that scenario, his deferred compensation gradually stops being considered deferred, and his cap hits are adjusted accordingly over the course of his contract. You can check out Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ for more details on that component of the rule if you’re interested.

Finally, it’s worth noting that LeBron James and Chris Paul reportedly played major roles during the last CBA negotiations in having this rule changed from the Over-36 rule to the Over-38 rule. It’s probably no coincidence that both James and Paul head into the 2018 offseason at age 33 with the opportunity to sign five-year deals that would have been considered Over-36 contracts — the new Over-38 rule won’t interfere with those deals.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 14th, 2018 at 2:40pm CST by Luke Adams

It took until overtime of the 82nd game of the season to do it, but the Timberwolves earned a playoff spot this year for the first time since 2004, ending one of the longest postseason droughts in professional sports. While the club was quickly dispatched in the first round by the top-seeded Rockets, it was a successful year in Minnesota and there’s reason for optimism going forward. After all, two of the team’s top scorers – Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins – are still in their early 20s, with plenty of room to keep improving.

Still, this roster will get very expensive very fast, with Wiggins’ maximum-salary deal set to hit the books, and pricey new extensions for Towns and Jimmy Butler likely to follow. The Wolves’ challenge will be finding a way to retain their most important contributors while filling the roster around them with role players who fit well and don’t break the bank.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Towns sign an extension? If so, how much will it be worth?

Towns is coming off his first All-Star appearance and first All-NBA nod, which will make extension negotiations between the Timberwolves and his camp very interesting. There’s virtually no doubt that Towns’ next deal will be a maximum-salary contract, but if he earns a spot on the All-NBA squad, he’d eligible for a max worth 30% of the cap, rather than just the 25% he’d typically be in line for.

That potential eligibility doesn’t mean that the Wolves have to offer Towns the full 30% max if he qualifies, but he’s clearly a more important foundational piece than Wiggins, who signed for the 25% max last offseason. I’d expect Minnesota’s contract offer to reflect that.

It’s possible that the Wolves will wait until Towns’ restricted free agency in 2019 to put that long-term offer on the table in order to maximize flexibility, since his cap hold will be lower than his projected maximum salary. The team currently seems unlikely to have cap room available next summer either way though, so there’s no real incentive to wait. Getting an extension done within the next few months may also help ease any lingering tension between the franchise and its star center.

2. Can Towns, Wiggins, and Butler co-exist long-term?

Speaking of that reported “tension,” I wouldn’t expect it to become a destructive force that sinks the current version of the Timberwolves, but it’s worth keeping an eye on — which is just what rival teams are doing. The source of that tension hasn’t been specified, but there were whispers earlier in the year that Wiggins didn’t love being the third option behind his two star teammates, and it’s possible Towns experienced some similar frustrations after his shot attempts dipped by nearly 20% from 2016/17 to 2017/18.

While those teams who are monitoring the situation in Minnesota would love for Towns to become available, Wiggins is the most likely trade candidate of the three. He has yet to become the kind of two-way star the Wolves envisioned when they acquired him for Kevin Love back in 2014, and while there’s still time for him to evolve into that player, many of his skills overlap with what Butler brings the team, which could stunt his growth to some extent.

A stronger outside shooter who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to succeed – think Klay Thompson – would be a better fit with the Wolves’ current roster, but a favorable deal will be hard to find. With Wiggins’ mammoth five-year extension about to take effect after a solid but unspectacular season, his trade value isn’t at its peak.

The Wolves probably won’t break up their “Big Three” this summer, but I think something’s got to give in the long term. If all three players stick with the team and Towns and Butler get new deals for 2019/20, they could easily be earning a combined $90MM that year, and they’d only get more expensive from there. That’s a huge price to pay for three stars who might not perfectly complement one another.

3. Who is on the trade block?

While Wiggins may not technically be on the trade block this offseason, I believe the Wolves would be willing to move him in the right deal. There are other players on the roster whom the team might try a little harder to trade.

The most obvious trade candidate is Gorgui Dieng, who saw his role reduced last season due to the arrival of Taj Gibson, a Tom Thibodeau favorite. A solid rebounder and rim protector whose offensive game is somewhat limited, Dieng can play both power forward and center, making him a good third big man to have on a roster. However, Thibodeau’s approach to his rotation means Dieng doesn’t see nearly enough action to warrant the team’s investment in him — he has three years and $48MM remaining on his contract.

Dieng doesn’t have positive trade value at this point, so the Wolves would probably need to attach an asset to him to make a deal, whether that means a first-round pick or perhaps a youngster like Justin Patton or Tyus Jones.

Elsewhere on the roster, Gibson and Jeff Teague probably aren’t strong candidates to be moved, since they were the veterans hand-picked by Thibodeau last summer. Cole Aldrich, whose $7MM salary for 2018/19 is only guaranteed for about $2MM, makes for an interesting trade piece, since he could be used to match salaries, then waived by his new team. If Minnesota intends to take advantage of that though, it will need to be soon, as Aldrich’s salary becomes fully guaranteed before the new league year begins.

4. Will Derrick Rose and/or Nemanja Bjelica be back?

Having already brought Butler and Gibson with him to Minnesota, Thibodeau didn’t surprise anyone by signing his former MVP to a rest-of-season contract in March. Rose, who had been traded by the Cavs and waived by the Jazz at the deadline, appeared unlikely to make an impact for an NBA team at that point, but Thibodeau and the Wolves managed to coax some solid play out of him down the stretch — the veteran point guard was one of the club’s most reliable contributors during its limited playoff run.

It likely wouldn’t break the bank to bring Rose back, so I think there’s a good chance that he and the Wolves will work something out. However, I think it’s less likely that Bjelica will re-sign. After knocking down 41.5% of his three-pointers last season, Bjelica will be in high demand from teams seeking a stretch four, and it would make sense for him to join a team where he’d have either a larger role or a better shot at a title.

5. How can the Timberwolves add shooting?

With Bjelica perhaps headed elsewhere, and Jamal Crawford seemingly unlikely to return to the Wolves, the team will be in desperate need of some outside shooting, with limited resources available to acquire it.

The draft represents one avenue to add a shooter. While the Wolves’ traded their own first-round pick (No. 19), they hold the Thunder’s first-rounder (No. 20) and will end up drafting in virtually the same spot they would have with their own selection. Minnesota also has the No. 48 pick in the second round.

In the first round, even if players like Jerome Robinson and Kevin Huerter are off the board by the time Minnesota on the clock, there should be plenty of good options available. Donte DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen, Jacob Evans, Khyri Thomas, Josh Okogie, and Gary Trent Jr. are among the strong outside shooters who will likely be up for grabs. Keita Bates-Diop is also an intriguing option if the club expects to lose Bjelica.

It’s trickier to predict which prospects will still be on the board by No. 48, but Landry Shamet and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk are among the sharpshooters projected to be drafted in that neighborhood.

Of course, Thibodeau generally favors veterans, so shooting figures to be a top priority for the Wolves in free agency. While the club won’t have cap room available, it may be able to use its full mid-level exception without crossing the tax apron. Usual suspects like Wayne Ellington, Marco Belinelli, J.J. Redick, and Joe Harris could be targets. Trevor Ariza, Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Tolliver, and Luke Babbitt are among the options available in the frontcourt.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Timberwolves financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Andrew Wiggins ($25,250,000)¹
Jimmy Butler ($20,445,779)
Jeff Teague ($19,000,000)
Gorgui Dieng ($15,170,787)
Taj Gibson ($14,000,000)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,839,435)
Justin Patton ($2,667,600)
Tyus Jones ($2,444,053)
Cole Aldrich ($2,056,021) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
Kevin Martin ($1,360,304) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $110,233,979

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Cole Aldrich ($4,900,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
Total: $4,900,000

Restricted Free Agents

Nemanja Bjelica ($4,937,499 qualifying offer / $7,504,998 cap hold): Bird rights
Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Amile Jefferson ($1,537,872 qualifying offer / $1,537,872 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Anthony Brown ($1,499,698 qualifying offer / $1,499,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights³
Total: $12,242,266

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Jamal Crawford ($5,193,600): Non-Bird rights⁴
No. 20 overall pick ($2,142,395)
Aaron Brooks ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Derrick Rose ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $10,335,391

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

If we assume the Timberwolves waive and stretch Aldrich and keep their other eight players with guaranteed salaries, we can add cap charges for their first-round pick and three empty roster slots to arrive at a total team salary of $113,499,626. That takes the Wolves well over the cap, and projects to take them near the luxury tax line too if they want to use most or all of their mid-level exception.

Footnotes:

Wiggins will have a maximum salary worth 25% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
Aldrich’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 20.
Brown, who was on a two-way contract, is eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract, since he’s no longer eligible to sign another two-way deal.
Crawford has reportedly decided to decline his 2018/19 player option worth $4,544,400.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: San Antonio Spurs

June 13th, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For only the fifth time in the last two decades, the Spurs failed to win a playoff series in 2018. Of course, San Antonio did extend its incredible streak of postseason appearances to 21 in a row, and managed to post a 47-35 record despite only having Kawhi Leonard for nine games, so it’s hard to consider the season a failure.

Still, the Spurs have long been considered the NBA’s model franchise, establishing the sort of continuity and stability that other teams strive for, and that mystique was stripped away to some extent in 2017/18. A public fraying of the relationship between the Spurs and Leonard cast a cloud over the second half of the season, and that cloud continues to hover over the club heading into the offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How will the Spurs resolve the Leonard situation?

It’s possible that the apparent rift between the Spurs and Leonard’s camp has been overstated, and a sit-down between the star forward and head coach Gregg Popovich will swiftly heal all wounds. But there has been too much smoke for there not to be at least a little fire in San Antonio, where the Spurs’ medical team and Leonard’s own doctors reportedly disagreed over the diagnosis and treatment of his quadriceps injury.

Leonard will be eligible for a super-max extension worth 35% of the salary cap this offseason, but the Spurs will have to think long and hard about putting that offer on the table. Such a deal would be worth over $40MM annually, so if the team has any reservations about Leonard returning to his All-NBA form in the coming years, it would be a scary investment.

On the other hand, the Spurs probably aren’t eager to put Leonard on the trade block, since doing so would essentially mean admitting to a lack of confidence in the 26-year-old long-term outlook, reducing their leverage. San Antonio’s top personnel executives could still probably find a reasonable return for Leonard, but he’s a top-five player in the NBA when he’s healthy, so the team will hope it doesn’t come to that.

I’d expect the Spurs and Leonard to smooth things out, but we won’t get a real sense of which direction this is going until that meeting between Leonard and Popovich happens. This will be one of the most important NBA storylines to watch in the coming weeks, and July 16 will be a date worth keeping an eye on — that’s when Leonard will become eligible for that super-max extension.

2. Will Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili still be Spurs next season?

While Leonard’s future is the most pressing question for the Spurs in terms of on-court impact, two of the team’s other longtime stars also aren’t locks to be back next season. Parker is headed for unrestricted free agency, while Ginobili is mulling the possibility of retirement.

It’s probably early too say whether both players will return, but I’d lean in that direction. Ginobili continued to provide solid part-time minutes for the Spurs in 2017/28 and seems capable of playing at least one more season. With one year and $2.5MM left on his contract, it would make sense for him to play out that deal, then seriously consider calling it a career next summer.

As for Parker, his future in San Antonio is a little less certain. If he has no desire to go elsewhere, I could see him transitioning into a stage in his career where he starts signing shorter-term deals with the Spurs, adjusting his salary up or down depending on the club’s cap situation, like Dirk Nowitzki has done in Dallas.

However, with Patty Mills on a lucrative long-term deal and Dejounte Murray emerging as the Spurs’ starting point guard, Parker’s role on the roster is less defined than it used to be. He averaged just 19.5 minutes per contest last season, easily the lowest mark of his career. If he returns, it will be at a much lower rate than the $15MM+ salary he earned in ’17/18.

3. How will the player option decisions shake out?

Before the end of June, three Spurs players will have to make option decisions. Danny Green ($10MM), Rudy Gay ($8.83MM), and Joffrey Lauvergne ($1.66MM) will have the opportunity to either play out the final year of their respective contracts or hit unrestricted free agency. None of those decisions are automatic.

Of the three, Green is probably the most likely to opt out. A three-and-D wing who has knocked down 39.5% of his career three-pointers, Green hasn’t put up huge numbers during his time in San Antonio, but he’s the sort of player every team wants on its roster. Green, who will turn 31 next week, may not receive offers worth more than the mid-level, but a three-year, $25MM contract seems very much within reach and might be preferable to one year at $10MM.

Like Green, Gay isn’t a lock to match his option salary on the open market, but could probably comfortably exceed that total on a multiyear deal. Still, he seemed to enjoy his first year in San Antonio, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he opts in and looks to boost his value further in advance of 2019 free agency, when more teams will have cap room available.

As for Lauvergne, he was solid when given the opportunity to play for the Spurs. I think he’s a good bet to pick up his option, but if he wants to try to find a larger role than he received in 2017/18 (9.7 MPG in 55 games), opting out of his minimum-salary deal wouldn’t cost him anything — as long as he can find another guaranteed offer.

4. Will the Spurs re-sign Kyle Anderson?

In recent years, the Spurs have made a habit of building up the value of young contributors, only to watch them sign elsewhere. Aron Baynes, Boban Marjanovic, and Jonathon Simmons are among the players who have parlayed solid showings in San Antonio into lucrative multiyear deals elsewhere.

It’s possible that Anderson will follow in the footsteps of those players. One recent report indicated that approximately seven teams will have interest in the restricted free agent this summer, so if even one puts an aggressive offer sheet on the table, the Spurs may be reluctant to match it.

As long as Leonard’s future in San Antonio remains up in the air though, I’d expect the Spurs to make a stronger effort to retain Anderson than they have with some past RFAs. The 24-year-old was forced into a larger role in Leonard’s absence and held his own, with 7.9 PPG on 52.7% shooting in 74 games (67 starts). He has proven he can be an important rotation player with or without Kawhi in the lineup.

5. How much longer will Popovich want to coach?

This question is either tangentially or directly related to virtually every personnel decision the Spurs make, not to mention the decisions the club’s players will make. Longtime Spurs like Parker and Ginobili may only want to play in San Antonio as long as Popovich is on the sidelines. Similarly, Leonard may be reluctant to re-up with the Spurs on a long-term contract without knowing whether or not Popovich will still be coaching the team in two or three years.

Even after losing James Borrego to the Hornets this spring, the Spurs have a deep and talented staff of assistants, led by Ettore Messina, Ime Udoka, and Becky Hammon, all of whom interviewed for head coaching jobs within the last couple months. Those coaches are respected by the players, and if one of them takes over for Popovich a few years down the road, it will probably be a smooth transition.

Nonetheless, Popovich is a future Hall-of-Famer, not to mention the de facto president of basketball operations for the Spurs. When he leaves the franchise, it will represent the end of an era, and that day might not be too far off. Popovich is 69 years old and lost his wife Erin earlier this year — it’s probably just a matter of time until he decides to trade in the NBA grind for more time with his family. One recent report suggested that most people don’t expect him to keep coaching beyond the 2020 Olympics.

Popovich appears set to return for the 2018/19 season, so this isn’t a question the Spurs will necessarily have to answer right away, but it’s one that will loom over the team’s longer-term outlook.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LaMarcus Aldridge ($22,347,015)
Kawhi Leonard ($20,099,189)
Pau Gasol ($16,800,000)
Patty Mills ($11,571,429)
Manu Ginobili ($2,500,000)
Tim Duncan ($1,881,250) — Waived via stretch provision
Derrick White ($1,667,160)
Dejounte Murray ($1,544,951)
Total: $78,410,994

Player Options

Danny Green ($10,000,000): Bird rights
Rudy Gay ($8,826,300): Non-Bird rights
Joffrey Lauvergne ($1,656,092): Non-Bird rights
Total: $20,482,392

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Brandon Paul ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $1,378,242

Restricted Free Agents

Kyle Anderson ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $6,455,112 cap hold): Bird rights
Davis Bertans ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Bryn Forbes ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $9,854,508

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tony Parker ($23,179,689): Bird rights
No. 18 overall pick ($2,337,014)
Nikola Milutinov ($1,689,080)²
David Lee ($1,499,698)
Total: $28,705,481

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $11,302,947

With so many player options and free agents to consider, the Spurs’ projected cap room could change significantly – or disappear altogether – depending on who returns and who leaves. For our projection, we’ve counted the Spurs’ seven guaranteed contracts, the cap holds for Anderson and the team’s first-round pick, and cap charges for three empty roster spots. The result is a total team salary of $89,697,053.
That projection assumes that Green, Gay, and Lauvergne will all opt out, Paul will be waived, and all non-Anderson free agents – including Parker – will be renounced. That may not be realistic. If a couple of those players are back, the Spurs’ cap room figures to dissipate quickly.

Footnotes:

Paul’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Milutinov was the Spurs’ 26th overall pick in 2015, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 26 pick. That cap hold will be removed when it’s officially determined that Milutinov won’t sign with the Spurs for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Milwaukee Bucks

June 13th, 2018 at 10:07am CST by Luke Adams

The Bucks were a popular preseason pick to grab a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference and perhaps even win a playoff series for the first time since 2001. However, despite a huge year from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee struggled to string together wins. The team fired its head coach midway through the season, claimed the No. 7 seed in the East, and was once again knocked out of the postseason in the first round.

With little cap flexibility to go out and make major additions to their roster, the Bucks may have to rely primarily on a new head coach and further internal development in order to take a step forward next season.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is Mike Budenholzer the right head coach for the Bucks?

Budenholzer was linked to the Bucks’ job shortly after the team fired Jason Kidd, back when Budenholzer was still coaching the Hawks and Joe Prunty was the interim head coach in Milwaukee. He didn’t officially secure the position until months later, but the fact that his interest in the Bucks apparently predated his departure from Atlanta is a signal that Budenholzer is excited about the job ahead.

During his introductory press conference, Budenholzer spoke specifically about wanting to unlock the Bucks’ defensive potential, which is an intriguing possibility. Budenholzer’s best squads in Atlanta were among the NBA’s top defensive teams, and Milwaukee has the personnel to create problems for opponents on that end of the court.

With athletic, rangy players like Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, John Henson, Tony Snell, and Thon Maker on the roster, the Bucks should have a better defensive rating than they did in 2017/18 (110.1; 19th in the NBA). While his impact on the offense will be interesting to monitor too, I’ll be curious to see how much influence Budenholzer can have on D.

2. Will the Bucks re-sign Jabari Parker?

Parker’s free agency will probably fly somewhat under the radar in an offseason when players like LeBron James, Paul George, and DeMarcus Cousins could change teams. However, this is a former second overall pick who has a 20+ PPG season under his belt and is still just 23 years old. It will be fascinating to see what sort of interest he receives as a restricted free agent.

Although Parker’s per-minute production and shooting numbers in 2017/18 were solid for a player coming off his second ACL surgery, he was somewhat inconsistent, and the Bucks were a better team offensively and defensively when he was off the court. That up-and-down play may limit Parker’s earning potential this summer, particularly with so few teams around the NBA carrying significant cap room.

While it’s possible a club with space like the Bulls, Mavericks, or Suns makes a strong play for Parker, forcing Milwaukee to make a tough decision, it wouldn’t surprise me if the former Blue Devil finds himself unsigned after most of the cap room around the NBA has dried up. In that scenario, the Bucks could play hardball in negotiations for a long-term deal, perhaps locking up Parker for about half of the maximum salary, rather than the near-max contract he once seemed on track for.

It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Parker could sign his qualifying offer this summer with an eye toward increasing his stock in time for unrestricted free agency in 2019. Either way, barring an unexpectedly aggressive offer sheet from a team with cap room, the Bucks appear to be in good position to retain Parker, assuming they want to do so.

3. Which players will be on the trade block?

Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are probably the only two untouchable players on the Bucks’ roster this offseason, but that doesn’t mean the team will be looking to move Bledsoe, Snell, Maker, or Malcolm Brogdon. Instead, the most logical trade chips on the roster are probably Matthew Dellavedova and Henson.

A beneficiary of the 2016 free agency boom, Dellavedova has two years and $19MM+ remaining on his four-year contract. While the Bucks initially signed him for his toughness and extensive playoff experience, Dellavedova’s on-court production and role declined in 2017/18, when he averaged just 4.3 PPG and 3.8 APG in 18.7 MPG (38 games). With Bledsoe and Brogdon handling point guard duties, the Bucks would probably be better off with a cheaper third option off the bench, but Dellavedova won’t have much value as a trade chip.

As for Henson, he emerged as Milwaukee’s starting center last season, rewarding the team for its trust in him with decent numbers (8.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG). However, the big man is still very limited on offense and has trouble playing in certain matchups. He’s also not cheap, with two years and $20MM+ left on his deal, though his declining cap hits could appeal to a potential Bucks trade partner.

4. Can the Bucks upgrade the center position?

If the Bucks do make a trade, they figure to focus on the center position. The combination of Henson and Dellavedova isn’t particularly tantalizing, but attaching a first-round pick to the duo could pique the interest of some teams. Even though the Bucks’ 2019 first-rounder is committed to Phoenix, they could move their No. 17 selection this year — they’d just have to draft the player themselves, then officially complete the trade after the fact in order to avoid running afoul of the Ted Stepien rule.

Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Tristan Thompson, Robin Lopez, Jonas Valanciunas, and Mason Plumlee are among the highly-paid veteran centers the Bucks could inquire on. Dwight Howard also might fit the club’s price point, but probably isn’t eager for a reunion with Budenholzer after having his stint in Atlanta end poorly last year.

If the Bucks can’t find a trade that works, it’s possible they’ll turn to the free agent market and look for a lower-cost option with their mid-level exception. Brook Lopez, Kyle O’Quinn, and Dewayne Dedmon could be targets.

5. What will the Bucks do with the No. 17 pick?

While the Bucks could address the center spot with their first-round pick, there aren’t a ton of intriguing young centers who will be available after the lottery. And many of the ones expected to be on the board, such as Mitchell Robinson, would likely be projects who wouldn’t be ready to contribute right away.

If the Bucks keep their first-round pick, they might be better off adding a young player to their backcourt or wing rotation. Troy Brown and Zhaire Smith would be candidates if they’re still available. Boston College point guard Jerome Robinson, who is Milwaukee’s pick in Jonathan Givony’s most recent ESPN.com mock draft, would be another viable option, as would fellow point guard Aaron Holiday.

One prospect I’d have my eye on if I were the Bucks is Keita Bates-Diop. At 22 years old, he’s more ready than many other first-round prospects to compete for playing time right away, and his defensive versatility – and his ability to make outside shots – would make him a good fit on an athletic Milwaukee roster.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bucks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($24,157,304)
Eric Bledsoe ($15,000,000)
Khris Middleton ($13,000,000)
Tony Snell ($10,607,143)
John Henson ($10,577,466)
Matthew Dellavedova ($9,607,500)
Mirza Teletovic ($3,500,000) — Waived via stretch provision
Thon Maker ($2,799,720)
D.J. Wilson ($2,534,280)
Spencer Hawes ($2,007,058) — Waived via stretch provision
Larry Sanders ($1,865,546) — Waived via stretch provision
Sterling Brown ($1,378,242)
Total: $97,034,259

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Brandon Jennings ($2,222,803)¹
Tyler Zeller ($1,933,941)
Malcolm Brogdon ($1,544,951)²
Total: $5,701,695

Restricted Free Agents

Jabari Parker ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $20,347,176 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $20,347,176

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 17 overall pick ($2,459,922)
Shabazz Muhammad ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Jason Terry ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Total: $5,459,318

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

While trades or cuts could open up some cap room for the Bucks, they’re far more likely to remain an over-the-cap team this summer. Their nine guaranteed contracts, plus Brogdon’s non-guaranteed salary, Parker’s cap hold, and the cap hold for their first-round pick bring the Bucks’ total team salary to $105,373,063, which is over the cap, but comfortably below the projected tax line.

Footnotes:

Jennings’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Brogdon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Miami Heat

June 12th, 2018 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat haven’t returned to legit title contention since LeBron James‘ departure in 2014, but the team hasn’t bottomed out either. After finishing the 2016/17 season on a 30-11 run, Miami carried some of that momentum over to 2017/18, winning 44 games and grabbing the No. 6 seed.

Thanks to a couple injuries to Eastern Conference players this year, the Heat now technically have an All-Star on their roster in Goran Dragic, but the squad still lacks the star power to compete with the league’s very best teams. With team president Pat Riley opposed to a full-fledged rebuild, the Heat will have to find a way to close that talent gap without a top draft pick — and, at least for now, without any cap room either.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Heat trade Hassan Whiteside?

After leading the NBA in blocked shots in 2015/16 and rebounding in 2016/17, Whiteside battled injuries last season and saw his playing time cut back even when he was healthy. The veteran center still comfortably averaged a double-double (14.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG), but Bam Adebayo or Kelly Olynyk often earned crunch-time minutes at the five, and Whiteside’s playing time was reduced even further in the postseason against Joel Embiid and the Sixers.

As his on-court role has decreased, Whiteside has publicly griped about his role in South Beach, prompting trade speculation for the coming offseason. The big man could probably use a change of scenery, and the Heat seem happy to accommodate a move, but a massive $25MM+ cap hit will complicate trade talks.

The Heat figure to thoroughly explore the trade market in search of a taker for Whiteside, with the Bucks and Wizards among the possible fits, but his value isn’t positive at this point. In order to acquire a first-round pick or a promising young player, Miami would have to take on at least one contract worse than Whiteside’s.

2. Which other Heat players are on the trade block?

Whether or not the Heat can move Whiteside, he won’t be the only player whose name comes up in trade rumors this summer. With six other players set to earn between $9-20MM in 2018/19, Miami could put together a number of different packages in trade discussions.

While no player on the roster is untouchable, I don’t expect the Heat to seriously consider moving Goran Dragic ($18.11MM), Josh Richardson ($9.37MM), or Adebayo ($2.96MM) unless the return is too good to pass up. On the other end of the spectrum, the Heat probably wouldn’t mind dealing Tyler Johnson ($19.25MM) or Dion Waiters ($11.55MM), but those players – like Whiteside – may be overpriced based on their respective roles and production.

Outside of the players the Heat won’t want to trade and the ones that won’t appeal to potential trade partners, James Johnson ($14.65MM), Olynyk ($11.14MM), and Justise Winslow ($3.45MM) are the other vets who could be in play. Winslow, in particular, is an intriguing trade chip for the Heat.

While Miami certainly isn’t ready to throw in the towel on the former lottery pick, he hasn’t developed as quickly as the franchise might have hoped. A restricted free agent in 2019, Winslow would come with several more years of team control and could be attached to a more expensive player in a trade package. If the Heat make a major move this summer, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winslow involved.

3. Will the Heat go shopping for a star again?

The Heat’s 2010 offseason shopping spree will go down as one of the best in NBA history, but the team has had a hard time replicating that free agent success in recent years. While Miami earned meetings with star free agents like Kevin Durant and Gordon Hayward, the club has been unable to secure those top targets.

Rather than continuing to preserve cap room for future pursuits, the Heat used last year’s room to sign a handful of solid players to lucrative long-term contracts. As a result, the club already has about $118MM in total team salary on its books for 2018/19, all but eliminating the chances of landing a top free agent.

With little flexibility to make a free agent splash, the Heat will have to turn to the trade market if they want to have any chance of landing a star-caliber player. We’ve already discussed their potential chips — would any of those chips be enough to put together a competitive package for a player like Kawhi Leonard? Maybe. Dragic, Winslow, and Miami’s unprotected 2019 first-rounder are good assets.

Any trade package the Heat put together probably won’t match what asset-rich teams like the Sixers, Celtics, or Suns could offer, but the team with the most assets doesn’t always win trade market bidding wars — no one expected the Thunder to outbid the Celtics for Paul George last summer, for instance. So while a blockbuster trade is probably unlikely for the Heat, the possibility shouldn’t be ruled out entirely.

4. Will Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem be back?

Outside of a brief foray to Chicago and Cleveland for Wade, he and Haslem have been the faces of this franchise for the last 15 years. Haslem doesn’t see much action anymore, but he’s a key leader in the locker room. As for Wade, he isn’t the same player he was in his prime, but he showed in the playoffs that he’s still got something left in the tank.

The two veterans have said they’ll talk to each other about their plans for next season, with retirement a possibility. If they do decide to keep playing, it will almost certainly be with the Heat. Re-signing Haslem wouldn’t cost more than the minimum for the Heat, but Wade may be a trickier case. Because the future Hall-of-Famer was on a one-year, minimum-salary contract last year, the Heat don’t hold his Bird rights. So if he wants more than the minimum next season, re-signing Wade would likely require a portion of the team’s mid-level exception.

The Heat certainly won’t turn Wade away if he wants to come back at a reasonable price, but given the team’s proximity to the tax line, every dollar will be important. Getting Wade back on a minimum deal would be the best outcome for the club.

5. Will the Heat re-sign Wayne Ellington?

Of course, it’s not Wade or Haslem but Ellington who will be the Heat’s most important unrestricted free agent this summer. The 30-year-old shooting guard provided some much-needed outside shooting for the Heat in 2017/18, leading the team with 2.9 three-pointers per game and knocking them down at a 39.2% rate. Now, he’ll hit the open market.

The Heat have Ellington’s Early Bird rights, which will allow the team to offer a starting salary up to $10.97MM for the veteran marksman. Miami might not have to go that high, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if rival suitors offer their full mid-level exceptions to Ellington, so the Heat’s offer would probably have to be in the $8.5MM range.

Once again, the Heat’s proximity to the tax line could be problematic as the front office weighs its decision on Ellington. Re-signing him would mean either becoming a taxpayer or needing to shed salary elsewhere to avoid the tax. But if they let Ellington walk, the Heat – who don’t have a pick in this year’s draft – will have a tough time finding a shooter capable of approximating his production. It will be interesting to see which way the team goes on its top three-point shooter.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Hassan Whiteside ($25,434,263)
Tyler Johnson ($19,245,370)
Goran Dragic ($18,109,175)
James Johnson ($14,651,700)
Dion Waiters ($11,550,000)
Kelly Olynyk ($11,137,527)
Josh Richardson ($9,367,200)
Justise Winslow ($3,448,926)
Bam Adebayo ($2,955,840)
A.J. Hammons ($350,088) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $116,250,089

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Rodney McGruder ($1,544,951)¹
Total: $1,544,951

Restricted Free Agents

Jordan Mickey ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold)
Total: $1,839,228

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Wayne Ellington ($8,151,000): Early Bird rights
Luke Babbitt ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Udonis Haslem ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Dwyane Wade ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $12,650,094

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even without re-signing Ellington, Wade, or any other free agents, the Heat project to be way over the cap. Their nine guaranteed salaries, McGruder’s non-guaranteed salary, and cap charges for two roster spots add up to a total team salary of $119,457,662. The Heat are likely headed for tax territory unless they can cut costs in a trade or two.

Footnotes:

McGruder’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 NBA Head Coaching Carousel Recap

June 12th, 2018 at 12:17pm CST by Luke Adams

After a 2017 offseason in which no NBA team made a head coaching change, the coaching carousel started spinning again once the 2017/18 regular season got underway. The Suns fired Earl Watson just four games into the season, and the Bucks and Grizzlies followed suit with in-season changes of their own.

At the end of the 2017/18 campaign, six more teams made coaching changes, meaning nearly one-third of the league’s 30 clubs will enter next season with head coaches who have been on the job for less than a year.

Here’s a recap of which teams have made head coaching changes during the ’17/18 NBA league year:

Atlanta Hawks

Hired: Lloyd Pierce (story)
Replaced: Mike Budenholzer (story)
Contract details: Four-year deal; fourth-year team option (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Nate Tibbetts, Stephen Silas, Jay Larranaga, Jarron Collins, Darvin Ham, David Fizdale

Pierce has an extensive résumé as an NBA assistant, having worked for the Cavaliers (2007-10), Warriors (2010-11), Grizzlies (2011-13), and Sixers (2013-18). His time in Golden State overlapped with Travis Schlenk‘s tenure in the Warriors’ front office. This will be Pierce’s first NBA head coaching job.

Charlotte Hornets

Hired: James Borrego (story)
Replaced: Steve Clifford (story)
Contract details: Four-year deal (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Jay Larranaga, Jerry Stackhouse, Ettore Messina, David Fizdale, Ime Udoka, David Vanterpool, Jim Boylen, Nick Nurse

Although he earned a little experience as an interim head coach in Orlando in 2015, Borrego has primarily served as an NBA assistant throughout his coaching career. He was previously an assistant for the Spurs (2003-10; 2015-18), Hornets (2010-12), and Magic (2012-15). This will be Borrego’s first permanent NBA head coaching job.

Detroit Pistons

Hired: Dwane Casey (story)
Replaced: Stan Van Gundy (story)
Contract details: Five-year deal, $35MM+ (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Kenny Smith, Juwan Howard, Ime Udoka, John Beilein, Jason Kidd, Nick Nurse
- Note: The Pistons reportedly wanted to interview Mike Budenholzer before he was hired by the Bucks.

The 2018 recipient of the National Coaches Basketball Association’s Coach of the Year award, Casey is coming off a successful seven-year run as the Raptors’ head coach. A former assistant for the SuperSonics (1994-2005) and Mavericks (2008-11), Casey also had a head coaching stint with the Timberwolves (2005-07). This will be his third NBA head coaching job.

Memphis Grizzlies

Hired: J.B. Bickerstaff (story)
Replaced: David Fizdale (in-season change)
Contract details: Three-year deal; third-year team option (link)

Of the nine teams who named new permanent head coaches this spring, Memphis was the only one not to conduct a full-fledged search. The Grizzlies opted to remove Bickerstaff’s interim tag, despite his 15-48 record last season. Bickerstaff was the Rockets’ interim head coach in 2015/16, but this will be his first role as a permanent head coach.

Milwaukee Bucks

Hired: Mike Budenholzer (story)
Replaced: Jason Kidd (in-season change); Joe Prunty (interim coach)
Contract details: Four-year deal (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Joe Prunty, Ettore Messina, Steve Clifford, Monty Williams, David Blatt, Becky Hammon, Jay Larranaga, Jim Cleamons
- Note: The Bucks reportedly wanted to interview James Borrego before he was hired by the Horents.

Budenholzer began interviewing for other head coaching positions while still under contract with the Hawks, but eventually he and Atlanta formally parted ways. The Milwaukee job will give Budenholzer the chance to avoid going through the rebuild in Atlanta. A longtime Spurs assistant (1996-2013), Budenholzer led the Hawks for five seasons. This will be his second NBA head coaching job.

New York Knicks

Hired: David Fizdale (story)
Replaced: Jeff Hornacek (story)
Contract details: Four-year deal (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Jerry Stackhouse, Mark Jackson, Mike Woodson, Kenny Smith, Mike Budenholzer, David Blatt, James Borrego, Jay Larranaga, Juwan Howard (story), Mike Brown

Fizdale, a veteran assistant with the Warriors (2003-04), Hawks (2004-08), and Heat (2008-16), received his first shot as an NBA head coach in Memphis in 2016. He was fired just 19 games into his second season with the Grizzlies, but was a popular candidate for teams with coaching openings this spring. This will be Fizdale’s second NBA head coaching job.

Orlando Magic

Hired: Steve Clifford (story)
Replaced: Frank Vogel (story)
Contract details: Four-year deal (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: David Vanterpool, Ime Udoka, Kelvin Sampson, David Fizdale

The Magic conducted the longest-lasting head coaching search of any team and ultimately landed on Clifford, who is coming off a five-year stint as the head coach in Charlotte. Prior to joining the Hornets, Clifford worked as an assistant for the Knicks (2001-03), Rockets (2003-07), Magic (2007-12), and Lakers (2012-13). This will be his second NBA head coaching job.

Phoenix Suns

Hired: Igor Kokoskov (story)
Replaced: Earl Watson (in-season change); Jay Triano (interim coach)
Contract details: Three-year deal (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: David Fizdale, Frank Vogel, Steve Clifford, Vinny Del Negro, James Borrego, Nick Nurse, Chris Finch, Jason Kidd, Mike Budenholzer

Kokoskov has been an assistant coach for several NBA teams, including the Clippers (2000-03), Pistons (2003-08), Suns (2008-13), Cavaliers (2013-14), Magic (2015), and Jazz (2015-18). He also has some international head coaching experience, having coached the Serbian, Georgian, and Slovenian national teams. This will be Kokoskov’s first NBA head coaching job, and he also becomes the league’s first European-born head coach.

Toronto Raptors

Hired: Nick Nurse (story)
Replaced: Dwane Casey (story)
Contract details: Three-year deal, $10MM (link)
Also reportedly interviewed: Rex Kalamian, Jerry Stackhouse, Ettore Messina, Ime Udoka, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Mike Budenholzer

Nurse coached outside of the NBA for much of his career, spending more than a decade in the British Basketball League and six seasons in the G League. He arrived in Toronto as an assistant in 2013 and has spent the last five years on the Raptors’ bench. This will be his first NBA head coaching job.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Washington Wizards

June 11th, 2018 at 3:16pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning a playoff series and pushing the Celtics to a seventh game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2017, the Wizards entered the 2017/18 season looking to compete for a spot in the NBA Finals. However, the club battled injuries and inconsistent play through the year, ultimately taking a step back. Washington finished eighth in the East at 43-39, and was quickly dispatched in the first round of the postseason.

With no cap room available in 2018, the Wizards have no clear path to improving their roster, so general manager Ernie Grunfeld will have to get creative as he seeks out potential upgrades.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Wizards keep their “Big Three” intact?

It’s not quite LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, but the Wizards have their own Big Three, with long-term, maximum-salary contracts on their books for John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter. The trio counts for more than $70MM on Washington’s cap in 2018/19, and that figure will increase substantially the following year when Wall’s new super-max extension takes effect.

Although modern NBA teams need star players in order to seriously contend for a title, it’s not clear if the Wizards’ trio has quite enough star-power to justify the team’s huge investment. Wall has battled knee issues during his career, and Beal and Porter have combined for just one All-Star appearance between them. As long as those three players remain on the roster, it will be tricky to add productive complementary pieces around them, and they aren’t the sort of superstars who can thrive without those complementary pieces.

It’s fair to wonder if the Wizards will seriously consider the possibility of breaking up their Big Three this summer. Wall’s super-max extension and knee issues cloud his value, while Beal is coming off a career year, so Porter may be the most logical trade candidate of the three. Teams around the NBA covet three-and-D wings, and Porter fits very nicely into that role, having knocked down 43.7% of his three-pointers over the last two seasons.

Porter’s salary is probably a little too high to expect a huge return, but if a team is willing to part with an impact big man for him, the Wizards should listen. One popular hypothetical scenario would see Washington acquiring Wall’s former Kentucky teammate DeMarcus Cousins in a sign-and-trade with the Pelicans, who could use a wing like Porter. However, there are a number of CBA roadblocks that could get in the way of such a deal, even if both teams agreed on value.

2. How will the Wizards address the center position?

Whether or not they explore a major trade, the Wizards will probably try to find a way to make a change at the center spot, where Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi will earn nearly $30MM between them in 2018/19. Gortat and Mahinmi have their moments, but their offensive games are limited, and neither player is the sort of elite defender who can anchor a defense.

If the Wizards keep Porter, their best shot at landing an impact player in a trade might be attaching Kelly Oubre and/or a first-round pick to Gortat’s expiring contract, since Mahinmi’s deal still has negative value. While there may not be a ton of impact centers on the trade market, I’d expect Washington to kick the tires on guys like Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, and Jonas Valanciunas, among others.

The Wizards’ ability to go after a center in free agency will be limited, given the team’s lack of cap room, so the draft may be the only other avenue to address the position in a real way. If Texas A&M’s Robert Williams slips out of the lottery to No. 15, he’d be a great fit.

3. Are the Wizards willing to pay the tax again?

I’ve already identified several of the Wizards’ highest-paid players as trade candidates, and that’s not just due to on-court factors. One of just a handful of taxpaying teams in the NBA in 2017/18, the Wizards’ reward for their willingness to spend was a 43-win season and a first-round playoff exit. As such, team ownership may not be quite so eager to go over the tax line again in 2018/19.

The Wizards aren’t technically over the projected tax threshold yet, but with Jason Smith having opted in and Jodie Meeks expected to follow suit, team salary will increase to nearly $125MM for 10 players, not counting the cap hold for the club’s first-round pick. So in order to get out of the tax, Washington will need to make some trades or cuts.

While the Wizards’ four highest-paid players are under contract for multiple seasons, the team will have a number of players on expiring deals, including Gortat, Markieff Morris, Smith, Meeks, Tomas Satoransky, and Oubre. Satoransky and Oubre provide solid value at modest prices, so Gortat, Morris, Smith, and Meeks should be among the players on the trade block. If they can’t be moved, the stretch provision could help the Wizards sneak below the tax line.

4. How can the Wizards improve their bench?

While the Wizards’ bench was more productive in 2017/18 than it was the previous season, it still had a negative net rating. Satoransky has emerged as a capable backup point guard and Oubre can be a capable sixth man when he’s playing well, but too many of the team’s other rotation players struggled to consistently produce.

One big disappointment last season was Meeks, who posted his worst 3PT% (.343) since his rookie season, then missed the playoffs after being suspended for violating the league’s anti-drug policy. The Wizards may have to hope for a bounce-back year from the veteran sharpshooter, since the team probably won’t have the cap flexibility to go after a shooter like Marco Belinelli, Wayne Ellington, or Joe Harris.

In the frontcourt, Mike Scott‘s strong season as the backup power forward in D.C. may end up pricing him out of the Wizards’ range. In that case, the team would need to address its depth behind Morris at the four. Once again, the Wizards’ lack of cap flexibility figures to hurt them, but Dante Cunningham, Amir Johnson, and Kevon Looney are among the free agents the team could kick the tires on.

5. What will the Wizards do with the No. 15 overall pick?

The best way for Washington to add a young, inexpensive player to its bench rotation will be with the No. 15 overall pick in this year’s draft. The Wizards have made a habit of trading their first-round picks in recent years, and it’s possible they’ll do so again this year if there’s a deal that allows them to trim salary and acquire a rotation player in one fell swoop.

Still, I think the Wizards will want to keep this year’s first-rounder. The 2018 draft class is a deep and talented one, and Washington’s front office certainly recognizes that rookie contracts are the best tools for balancing out the expensive veteran contracts on the team’s cap.

So who should the Wizards pick at No. 15? As I noted earlier, Williams would be an ideal target for at that spot, but I expect him to come off the board in the lottery. If Williams is unavailable, adding a wing may be the best course of action for the Wizards. Lonnie Walker, Miles Bridges, Zhaire Smith, and Troy Brown are among the prospects who could be available.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Wizards financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Otto Porter ($26,011,913)
Bradley Beal ($25,434,262)
John Wall ($19,169,800)
Ian Mahinmi ($15,944,154)
Marcin Gortat ($13,565,218)
Markieff Morris ($8,600,000)
Jason Smith ($5,450,000): Exercised player option
Kelly Oubre ($3,208,630)
Tomas Satoransky ($3,129,187)
Martell Webster ($833,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $121,346,497

Player Options

Jodie Meeks ($3,454,500)
Total: $3,454,500

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tim Frazier ($3,800,000): Bird rights
No. 15 overall pick ($2,725,615)
Chris McCullough ($2,243,326): Bird rights¹
Ty Lawson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Mike Scott ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Ramon Sessions ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $13,268,035

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

The Wizards will be well over the cap threshold again in 2018/19, barring major cuts and/or trades. If we assume Meeks exercises his player option, the Wizards’ total team salary – taking into account their 10 player contracts, plus cap charges for their first-round pick and an empty roster spot – would get all the way up to $128,357,923.

Footnotes:

The Wizards can’t offer McCullough a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since they declined his fourth-year rookie scale option worth that amount.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 11th, 2018 at 12:00pm CST by Austin Kent

The 2017/18 season was an exhausting one for the Cavaliers and it ended the only way it possibly could: in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Warriors. While LeBron James put forth an historically impressive showing this year, the squad just wasn’t nearly deep enough to put another dent in Golden State’s dynasty.

The biggest story in Cleveland this summer will obviously be James’ forthcoming free agency. It’s no secret that the 33-year-old will have multiple realistic options to mull over this summer and the Cavaliers will have little choice but to wait and see what he decides before they set out with the rest of their plans.

To general manager Koby Altman‘s credit, the franchise was impressively proactive at the trade deadline, adding several players who could be a part of a rebuild for years to come. And to team owner Dan Gilbert‘s credit, he promoted Altman, a general manager he wanted, when there was pressure from James’ camp to retain David Griffin.

Expect the Cavs to welcome James back (and all the ensuing baggage) if the future Hall-of-Famer decides in earnest to end his career where it started, but my read of the situation is that Gilbert and company won’t exactly grovel if the King starts leaning toward taking his talents elsewhere.

Jose Calderon, PG, 36 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
It’s hard to imagine Calderon signing on for anything more than the veteran’s minimum at this stage in his career, but a solid enough 2017/18 campaign in which he started 32 games for the Cavaliers should be enough to earn him another contract. The Cavs won’t have much use for the 36-year-old if they blow things up, so expect any decision regarding Calderon to come a little later in free agency.

Jeff Green, PF, 31 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
It’s hard to gauge Green’s value considering he went from making $15MM in 2016/17 to the league minimum in 2017/18. Still, there’s no denying he was a bargain for the Cavaliers at just over $2MM. Despite a limited ceiling, Green is a solid role player and could be an affordable depth piece for a competitive team in Cleveland or elsewhere.

Rodney Hood, SG, 25 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2014
Less than a year ago, Hood was in line to take over scoring duties for the suddenly Gordon Hayward-less Jazz. The swingman showed on a number of occasions in the first half of 2017/18 that he was capable of being a semi-reliable primary option on offense, but injuries and the rise of Donovan Mitchell complicated the restricted free agent’s big contract year. A slow start in Cleveland, coupled with a lousy postseason and one particularly bad decision will limit his value even further. That said, if Hood draws an offer sheet in the $10MM-$14MM range this offseason, he could end up being a bargain.

LeBron James, PF, 33 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $100MM deal in 2016
Despite rampant speculation about James’ upcoming free agency, there’s no clear indication about what the superstar will do. The growing narrative is that James doesn’t have the supporting cast to compete with the likes of the superteams around him. While I’ll submit that he and his representation are partly to blame considering their insistence on leveraging James in order to land players like Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith albatross contracts, there’s no denying that the Cavs’ roster looked empirically overwhelmed by the vastly deeper Warriors in the NBA Finals.

James, who looks more formidable than ever now as a 33-year-old, will earn every single penny available to him wherever he signs, but while there will be considerably more pennies available to him if he stays in Cleveland, it’s hard to imagine that somebody with a net worth of $400MM will base his decision entirely on wealth. Narrowing down where the King might land, then, comes down to figuring out his motives. If James wants to win rings he could either sign with the Sixers or squeeze his way onto the Rockets. If he wants to set himself up for life after basketball he should probably pack up the family and head over to join the Lakers. Of course, if James wants to preserve his uniquely complicated legacy, he should think long and hard about staying in Cleveland.

Kendrick Perkins, 33, C (Down) – Signed to a two-year deal in 2018
The Cavaliers added Perkins to their big league roster in the waning days of the regular season, but seem unlikely to pick up his option for 2018/19. While the veteran was brought on to provide an additional veteran voice in the locker room, his only notable feat in the postseason was getting into sideline altercation with Stephen Curry and Drake. Perkins is relatively young to be a symbolic elder statesmen, so there’s always the possibility that he signs on with another contender in a similar enforcer-turned-unofficial coach role, but don’t forget that he’s only seen action in one NBA contest since the 2015/16 season. His career could just as easily be over.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 10th, 2018 at 7:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing the playoffs for four straight seasons, the Nuggets were a popular choice to climb back into the top eight in the Western Conference this year. Denver improved to 46-36, but a loss to the Timberwolves on the final day of the regular season prevented the team from earning a postseason berth in an extremely competitive conference.

There’s reason to believe that the Nuggets are still on the rise — many of their key contributors are still less than 25 years old, and the team will count on top 2017 free agent addition Paul Millsap to be healthier next year. However, the franchise no longer has substantial cap room available. In fact, certain moves could push Denver’s team salary beyond the luxury-tax line, which may not appeal to club ownership.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will the Nuggets do with Nikola Jokic?

The most fascinating question the Nuggets will have to answer involves the future of Jokic, who looks like a franchise center. Denver’s leader last season in PPG (18.5), RPG (10.7), APG (6.1), and 3PT% (.396), Jokic is an offensive force, and one who is playing on a very team-friendly salary. The Nuggets hold a team option for 2018/19 worth just $1.6MM.

So what’s the problem? Well, if Denver exercises that team option, it would put the 23-year-old on track for unrestricted free agency in 2019. At that point, the Nuggets would be able to offer him more years and money than any other team, but they wouldn’t have the right of first refusal, and would risk losing him for nothing. Plus, delaying his payday by another year wouldn’t endear the Nuggets to Jokic’s representatives, who have strongly suggested that declining the option would be in the club’s best interests.

As such, the most likely outcome is the Nuggets turning down that option in order to make Jokic a restricted free agent, at which point the two sides could work out a new long-term agreement and Denver wouldn’t have to worry about potentially losing their rising star on the open market.

2. How can the Nuggets trim salary?

The problem with giving Jokic a lucrative new deal this summer is that it would create some financial issues for the Nuggets. If we assume Jokic gets a max contract or something close to it, that could add another $25MM to Denver’s team salary for 2018/19. The team already has about $85.6MM in guaranteed money on its books, with player options for Wilson Chandler ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM) likely to follow. The cost of the Nuggets’ roster would increase to approximately $131MM if we count all those deals, and that’s without accounting for free-agent-to-be Will Barton.

In other words, the Nuggets will probably need to find a way to cut costs.

Fortunately, Denver should have a handful of players in contract years. In addition to Chandler and Arthur, Kenneth Faried ($13.8MM) will be entering the final season of his deal. The team hasn’t been able to find a taker for Faried in the past, but with just one year left, more potential trade partners may surface.

Still, Faried and Arthur won’t be easy to move, so Chandler is probably the most logical trade chip for the Nuggets. The 31-year-old is a solid three-point shooter (.358 3PT% in ’17/18) and defender capable of playing either forward position, and the Nuggets were better with him on the court than off it last season, so he should appeal to contending teams.

Of course, those are all reasons why Denver might prefer to keep Chandler on the roster, particularly since the club doesn’t have a ton of reliable small forward depth. If they keep Chandler, the Nuggets would probably have to pair Faried, Arthur, or Mason Plumlee with a more valuable asset in order to find a taker. Waiving and stretching a player or two is also an option if absolutely necessary. Arthur’s 2018/19 cap charge could be reduced by about $5MM if he’s stretched, for instance.

3. Could the Nuggets’ power forward logjam lead to trade opportunities?

With Jokic locked in at the five and Plumlee backing him up, the Nuggets don’t need Millsap to be a small-ball center too often, which means he’ll see most of his action at the four. If he stays healthy and averages 30+ minutes per game, that doesn’t leave much playing time for Denver’s other power forwards, and the team has a lot of them.

Besides Faried and Arthur, Trey Lyles, Juan Hernangomez, and Chandler all saw action at the four last season. Lyles enjoyed a modest breakout season as a regular rotation player, exhibiting an ability to knock down shots (.491/.381/.697). Hernangomez took a step backward in his sophomore year, but showed promise as a rookie and is still just 22 years old, so he could push for a larger role.

Denver probably needs a trade or two to better balance its roster, and while the team would certainly prefer to move those highly-paid players like Faried and Arthur, including Lyles or especially Hernangomez in a trade package could make sense in the right move.

4. Will the Nuggets re-sign Barton?

Barton will enter unrestricted free agency following the most productive year of his NBA career (15.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.1 APG), and his play-making and ball-handling abilities make him an ideal sixth man for the Nuggets. However, he’ll likely draw interest from teams around the league who envision him in a similar role on their own rosters, so Denver will have to give him a raise and a multiyear deal to keep him.

We’ve already discussed the Nuggets’ potential salary issues at length, but the team would be under even more pressure to move salary if Barton re-signs. Still, he might be worth it, depending on how high his price tag goes. If a team with cap room makes an aggressive play for the veteran guard, Denver may not be equipped to top that offer, but as long as his price stays in the mid-level range, the Nuggets should do all they can to keep him.

5. What will the Nuggets do with their lottery pick?

If they have to let Barton walk or trade Chandler this summer, the Nuggets will find themselves in desperate need of wing depth, and the No. 14 pick in this year’s draft might be an ideal spot to replenish that depth.

Lonnie Walker, Miles Bridges, and Zhaire Smith are among the shooting guard or small forward candidates to be on the board when Denver’s pick arrives, and any of them would be solid fits. In his most recent mock draft, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Bridges going to the Nuggets at No. 14, observing that the MSU product has the potential to become a “two-way forward who can guard all over the floor.”

Depending on how cost-conscious the Nuggets are, the No. 14 pick could also become a valuable tool to help clear salary. The Pelicans/Bulls midseason trade involving a first-round pick and Omer Asik for Nikola Mirotic provides a point of reference here. If Denver attached its lottery pick to Faried and/or Arthur, the team could still ask for a useful rotation player in return.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Paul Millsap ($29,730,769)
Gary Harris ($16,517,857)
Kenneth Faried ($13,764,045)
Mason Plumlee ($12,917,808)
Jamal Murray ($3,499,800)
Trey Lyles ($3,364,249)
Juan Hernangomez ($2,166,360)
Tyler Lydon ($1,874,640)
Malik Beasley ($1,773,840)
Total: $85,609,368

Player Options

Wilson Chandler ($12,800,562)
Darrell Arthur ($7,464,912)
Total: $20,265,474

Team Options

Nikola Jokic ($1,600,520)
Total: $1,600,520

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Devin Harris ($8,364,837): Bird rights
Will Barton ($6,713,333): Bird rights
No. 14 overall pick ($2,869,353)
Richard Jefferson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $16,823,817

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even if Chandler turns down his player option, Arthur is a virtual lock to exercise his, and Jokic will be back — either on his cheap team-option salary or on a lucrative new deal. With their nine guaranteed contracts, Arthur’s player option, Jokic’s team option, and the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Nuggets already have a total team salary of $97,544,153, essentially eliminating cap room. If Chandler opts in and the Nuggets want to sign Jokic to a new contract this summer, the team projects to be way over the cap.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 6/4/18 – 6/10/18

June 10th, 2018 at 12:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

If the Cavaliers draft Trae Young or Michael Porter Jr., do you think it will be enough to convince LeBron James to stay put in Cleveland, seeing that the Cavs will still be a strong team? — Greg Dizon

Don’t forget that when LeBron returned to Cleveland, he wasn’t excited about the chance to play alongside Andrew Wiggins, encouraging the team to move that year’s top overall pick in a deal for Kevin Love. There’s no one the Cavs could take with at No. 8 who is going to affect James’ decision. He doesn’t just want to be competitive; he wants to find a way to beat the Warriors and add more rings to his legacy. For Cleveland to improve its chances of keeping LeBron, the best strategy is to offer up the draft pick in trade talks to see what kind of veteran help is available.

Lakers/ Heat trade for Hassan Whiteside? How solid is that? — Nicholas Small

There’s no chance at all before free agency, and probably not much afterward. Ever since the current management team took over, the Lakers have been committed to opening up as much cap room as possible to land a big prize or two on the free agent market. There’s no way they’re going to jeopardize that before seeing if they can lure James, Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins. Even if they strike out on all three, the Lakers are more likely to fill their roster with affordable one-year contracts than take a chance on an expensive deal like Whiteside’s. The Heat will be fortunate to get equal value for their enigmatic center, who will make more than $25.4MM next season and has a $27MM option for 2019/20.

Any moves the Wolves are considering … maybe moving Gorgui Dieng, Andrew Wiggins or Jeff Teague? — JMA, via Twitter

Minnesota is hovering near the luxury tax for next season and would love to find a taker for Dieng, who is owed nearly $48.7MM over the next three years. However, there are only a handful of teams able to take on that much salary and it would probably cost the Wolves at least one first-round pick to move him. There would be a larger market for Wiggins because of his age and potential, but he becomes much more expensive when his four-year, $146.5MM extension kicks in next season. Unless there’s some substance to the Karl-Anthony Towns rumors, this will probably be a quiet summer in Minnesota on the trade front.

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