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2018 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 15th, 2018 at 11:18am CST by Luke Adams

The 2018 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night in Chicago before Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals begins in Boston. Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s event:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2018 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Phoenix Suns
  2. Memphis Grizzlies
  3. Dallas Mavericks
  4. Atlanta Hawks
  5. Orlando Magic
  6. Chicago Bulls
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Nets)
  9. New York Knicks
  10. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
    • Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via lottery
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (from Pistons)
    • Note: Pistons will keep pick if it moves into top three via lottery.
  13. Los Angeles Clippers
  14. Denver Nuggets

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Suns will have a 25.0% chance at the first overall pick and a 64.2% chance at a top-three pick. That puts them in the driver’s seat, as they won’t be picking any lower than fourth.

The Grizzlies (19.9% at No. 1; 55.8% at top-three), Mavericks (13.8% and 42.6%), and Hawks (13.7% and 42.3%) have the next-best odds at a top pick, with the odds for the remaining lottery teams declining from there.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades will have an impact on Tuesday night’s lottery results. They are as follows:

The Cavaliers own the Nets‘ unprotected first-round pick, so Cleveland will receive that selection no matter where it lands. It’s currently projected to be No. 8 overall.

The Sixers own the Lakers‘ unprotected first-round pick, but will send that pick to the Celtics if it moves up to No. 2 or No. 3 in the lottery. If it stays where it is (No. 10), moves up to No. 1, or moves down at all, the 76ers will keep it, which is the likely outcome (97.1% chance).

  • Note: If the Sixers keep this pick, the Celtics will receive a top-one protected pick from the Sixers in 2019 (the most favorable of the Kings and Sixers picks).

The Clippers own the Pistons‘ top-three protected first-round pick. If it moves up to the top three in the lottery, that selection will stick with Detroit. However, it’s currently projected to be No. 12, limiting the odds of it moving up. The Clips have a 97.5% chance of ending up with the pick.

  • Note: If the Pistons keep their pick, the Clippers will receive a top-four protected pick from the Pistons in 2019.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-stage representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  • Atlanta Hawks: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
  • Boston Celtics: Rich Gotham (president)
  • Charlotte Hornets: Mitch Kupchak (president of basketball operations / GM)
  • Chicago Bulls: Michael Reinsdorf (president / COO)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: Nick Gilbert (son of owner Dan Gilbert)
  • Dallas Mavericks: Michael Finley (assistant VP of basketball operations)
  • Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray
  • Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard
  • Los Angeles Clippers: Jerry West (consultant)
  • Memphis Grizzlies: Elliot Perry (minority owner / director of player support)
  • New York Knicks: Scott Perry (GM)
  • Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  • Philadelphia 76ers: Elton Brand (GM of Delaware Blue Coats)
  • Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson
  • Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox

Final Year For Current Lottery Format:

This will be the final year that the lottery uses the current odds, including a 25% chance at the No. 1 pick for the NBA’s worst team. Starting in 2019, the league’s three worst teams will have an equal shot (14.0%) at landing the first overall pick, and the top four spots in the draft will be decided in the lottery. That means the league’s worst team could slip as far as No. 5.

Additionally, the odds at a top pick will be smoothed out throughout the top 14. While the NBA’s very worst teams will still have the best chance to land the very best picks, the difference won’t be as significant as it has been. For instance, in the current format, the NBA’s eighth-worst team has a 10% chance at a top-three pick. In the new format, that club’s odds would increase to a 26% chance at a top-four pick.

For full details on the lottery changes for 2019, click here.

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2018 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 15th, 2018 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves cashed in their cap space during the 2017 offseason, signing Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson to lucrative deals and trading for Jimmy Butler. With Andrew Wiggins now locked up to a max extension, and a new max contract for Karl-Anthony Towns likely to follow, it may be a while before Minnesota has cap room available again.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Timberwolves financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2018:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Cole Aldrich ($4,900,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.2
  • Total: $4,900,000

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

  • If we assume the Timberwolves waive and stretch Aldrich and keep their other eight players with guaranteed salaries, we can add cap charges for their first-round pick and three empty roster slots to arrive at a total team salary of $113,499,626. That takes the Wolves well over the cap, and projects to take them near the luxury tax line too if they want to use most or all of their mid-level exception.
  • The Timberwolves currently only have about $43MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2019/20. However, once Teague’s $19MM player option and new contracts for Butler and Towns are added to that total, Minnesota projects to have no cap room for the foreseeable future, barring major roster changes.

Footnotes:

  1. Wiggins will have a maximum salary worth 25% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
  2. Aldrich’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 20.
  3. Brown, who was on a two-way contract, is eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract, since he’s no longer eligible to sign another two-way deal.
  4. Crawford has reportedly decided to decline his 2018/19 player option worth $4,544,400.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Mike Budenholzer

May 14th, 2018 at 8:07pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mike Budenholzer has generated more headlines during this offseason than he did in recent years as the Hawks’ head coach.

Since Budenholzer and the Atlanta franchise mutually parted ways, he has been mentioned prominently for virtually every coaching opening. He withdraw consideration from the Suns job but was a major candidate for the Knicks’ opening before they hired David Fizdale.

Budenholzer is now reportedly the focus of coaching searches in Milwaukee and Toronto. The Bucks will meet with him for a second time on Tuesday, while he was first outside candidate linked to the Raptors after Dwane Casey surprisingly got fired last week.

Both jobs hold appeal. The Bucks, of course, have young superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and some other quality pieces, particularly Khris Middleton. The Raptors held the top seed in the East before LeBron James and the Cavaliers swept them out of the playoffs. Perhaps some fresh ideas could squeeze out better postseason results from a roster that won 59 regular-season games.

Budenholzer’s name has also been mentioned for the Pistons’ opening. He would inherit a roster there that includes the All-Star caliber big man duo of Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin.

That leads us to our question of the day: Which coaching job should Mike Budenholzer take if he receives offers from the Bucks, Raptors and Pistons? Or should he wait for another opening?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to what you have to say.

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2018 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: San Antonio Spurs

May 14th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

It may be the end of an era in San Antonio, with Tony Parker headed for free agency and Manu Ginobili uncertain about playing another season. More troubling for the Spurs was Kawhi Leonard‘s 2017/18 season, which saw him appear in just nine games due to a lingering quad injury and has resulted in some apparent tension between the franchise and the superstar’s camp. While Parker’s and Ginobili’s futures in San Antonio are up in the air, resolving the Leonard situation will be the Spurs’ top priority this summer.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2018:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $11,302,947

  • With so many player options and free agents to consider, the Spurs’ projected cap room could change significantly – or disappear altogether – depending on who returns and who leaves. For our projection, we’ve counted the Spurs’ seven guaranteed contracts, the cap holds for Anderson and the team’s first-round pick, and cap charges for three empty roster spots. The result is a total team salary of $89,697,053.
  • That projection assumes that Green, Gay, and Lauvergne will all opt out, Paul will be waived, and all non-Anderson free agents – including Parker – will be renounced. That may not be realistic. If a couple of those players are back, the Spurs’ cap room figures to dissipate quickly.

Footnotes:

  1. Paul’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. Milutinov was the Spurs’ 26th overall pick in 2015, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 26 pick. That cap hold will be removed when it’s officially determined that Milutinov won’t sign with the Spurs for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Philadelphia 76ers

May 13th, 2018 at 10:19pm CST by Austin Kent

The Sixers have made it quite clear that they’re ready and willing to accelerate their timeline and make a serious bid for an elite free agent. That’s ambitious and admirable, but to assume that a player like LeBron James is around the corner is like buying lottery tickets to fund your retirement.

It’s commendable that the Sixers have their sights set on big fish, but let’s assume that the King decides to re-up in Cleveland and Philly is forced to see their original process through to the end. Sure, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid weren’t enough to win the East in their first ever playoff appearances, that doesn’t mean the organization is in any less of an enviable place than they were a month ago.

In the event that Philly strikes out in their pursuit of James, they’d be wise to continue what they set out to do in 2017/18, surround their obnoxiously promising young core with solid veterans capable of helping them flourish into superstars.

J.J. Redick, SG, 34 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $23MM deal in 2017
The idea to overpay Redick for a one-year contract last summer was brilliant. The team was able to complement its young core with a capable veteran scorer while getting a feel for what the next phase of the process was. It turns out the next phase involves winning, though, which involves paying to keep the club’s young core in tact. Since July, when Redick signed his monster contract, the Sixers have extended both Embiid and Robert Covington, eating up $35MM in salary that they didn’t need to worry about this time last. While the club still has piles of cap room for 2018/19, Philadelphia may look to lock Redick down at a discounted rate now that the roster is looking less and less like a science fair project and more like a contender.

Marco Belinelli, SG, 32 (Up) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
Belinelli landed with the Hawks last offseason, a hired gun on a short-term deal, and eventually became one of the buyout market’s most desirable pieces. The Sixers prudently added the shooting guard in February and gave him a months-long opportunity to show what he’s capable of contributing to a contender. Belinelli is still young enough to command a contract in the $8MM-$10MM range and may be able to parlay his success in Philly into a longer-term contract. That could very well put him right back in a Sixers uniform.

Ersan Ilyasova, PF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
There are few players who fill an unheralded role more brilliantly than Ilyasova but that hasn’t helped him find any stability since getting traded away from Milwaukee in 2015. In the three years since, the veteran has plied his scrappy trade for five franchises, proving at every step along the way that he’s a solid rotation piece. Unfortunately for Ilyasova, the contenders that he could benefit most tend to be the ones with the least amount of cap space, so he may need to take a discount if he wants to win.

Amir Johnson, C, 31 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $11MM deal in 2017
The Sixers are in a drastically different place than they were when they inked Johnson, a reliable if unexciting veteran, to an eight-digit contract. For one, the win-now Eastern Conference contender need not get creative just to meet the league’s salary floor and they also don’t need to be quite as cautious when it comes to Embiid insurance. If Johnson wants to remain in Philadelphia – or on any serious playoff team – he may need to take a significant pay cut.

Richaun Holmes, C, 24 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $5MM deal in 2015
Thanks to Embiid’s reasonably healthy season, the Sixers didn’t utilize Holmes as much as they did the year prior but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t still high on the athletic big man’s long-term role with the franchise. Picking up his $1.6MM team option is a no-brainer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Boston’s Point Guard Depth

May 13th, 2018 at 5:59pm CST by Austin Kent

While the absence of ex-Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving may detract from some drama in the Eastern Conference Finals, it didn’t slow the Celtics down en route to a convincing victory over his former team in Game 1 of the series on Sunday.

As a matter of fact, the Celtics have thrived despite the Irving injury all postseason thanks in no small part to the contributions of two other point guards on the roster.

In a starter’s workload this postseason, which includes 37.3 minutes per game, third-year guard Terry Rozier has averaged 18.2 points and 5.5 assists per game. The 24-year-old may not star alongside Nick Kroll in an upcoming feature film this June* like Irving will but he’s looked every bit as capable at the helm, piloting the C’s through two playoff series already.

Another major component at play this postseason, a third asset that rounds out Boston’s elite point guard depth chart, is Marcus Smart. While Smart’s playing style has always been unique, the 10.3 points and 4.4 assists per game that he brings along with his toughness and other intangibles, have made him invaluable.

Regardless of how the Celtics fare this postseason, they’ll happily welcome Irving, a bonafide star, back into the starter’s role next season. That, unsurprisingly, could put a squeeze on the rest of the players at the position. Sure, Smart’s role as a reserve combo guard allows him to slot in alongside Irving, but Rozier saw just 24.4 minutes of nightly action in the regular season prior to the opportunity created by Irving.

Our question for you this evening is which of the two guards you’d value more heading into the 2018 offseason?

Should the C’s make bringing restricted free agent Smart back this summer a top priority or could they get by with Rozier and another third-string guard? Alternatively, should Danny Ainge potentially look to deal Rozier instead given that there’s more of an overlap between him and Irving than there is between Smart and Irving?

Is there room for all three long-term?

Consider Boston’s success this postseason proof that a surplus of point guard talent is a pleasant conundrum to have. Weigh in with how you think the situation will develop below.

*Hi film studio, all commissions happily accepted.

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Weekly Mailbag: 5/7/18 – 5/13/18

May 13th, 2018 at 12:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Is there a market for the traditional big man? What can Greg Monroe/Enes Kanter expect to get paid on the open market? — Ryan O’Neal, via Twitter

There’s a two-part problem for Monroe, Kanter, DeAndre Jordan and any other traditional center who might be thinking of testing the free agent market. Not only are their contributions being de-emphasized as teams try to stretch the floor, but the few franchises that have money to spend this summer won’t be looking for veteran big men. There’s a very good chance that Kanter [$18,622,514 next season] and Jordan [$24,119,025] look at the market and decide to opt in with their current teams. Monroe’s contract is expiring, so he won’t have a choice, but remember that he wasn’t used much in Phoenix and the demand for him was fairly soft once he agreed to a buyout with the Suns.

How does the top of the draft look for the Dallas Mavericks? — Mark Eiserman

The Mavericks are looking for help in the middle and are very fortunate with this year’s draft class. Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton would be the dream pick, but Duke’s Marvin Bagley III, Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. and Texas’ Mo Bamba could all be future stars. Much depends on the Mavs’ fate in Tuesday’s lottery, where they have a 13.8% chance to get the top pick and a 42.6% shot at landing in the top three. The odds are pretty good that Dallas will emerge from the draft with its center of the future.

Did the Raptors need to make a coaching change after a 59-win season? — J.L., via Twitter

Dwane Casey is one of the most respected coaches in the league and did a phenomenal job during his seven seasons in Toronto, amassing 320 wins and four Atlantic Division titles. However, once coaches reach a certain level of success, they stop being judged on the regular season. The Raptors reached the conference finals just once under Casey and were eliminated in the second round the past two years. It’s a stigma that has been hanging over the organization, and a coaching change is the easiest way to shake things up, whether Casey deserved it or not. If the Raptors had kept Casey and the same roster for next season, is there any reason to think they wouldn’t suffer the same fate again?

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Community Shootaround: Best Coaching Hire

May 12th, 2018 at 8:25pm CST by Arthur Hill

Since the regular season ended, the coaching carousel hasn’t stopped spinning. Nine franchises — nearly a third of the league — have conducted coaching searches, and just when it seemed things were slowing down, two more openings occurred this week as the Pistons and Raptors both dismissed their coaches.

When the Hawks introduce Lloyd Pierce at a press conference Monday, they will become the fifth team to officially hire a coach. Let’s take a quick look at those franchises and the new men in charge:

  • Hawks, Pierce — Nobody understands rebuilding better than someone who has endured “the Process.” Pierce joined Brett Brown’s staff in Philadelphia in 2013 and went through some dismal seasons while the team collected young talent. He inherits another young roster in Atlanta, which will have four draft picks in the top 33.
  • Hornets, James Borrego — A longtime assistant, Borrego comes from one of the NBA’s top organizations, spending 10 seasons with Gregg Popovich in San Antonio. He also has brief head coaching experience, taking over for 30 games with the Magic when Jacque Vaughn was fired in 2015. He has a veteran roster that could be broken up as Charlotte has a new GM in Mitch Kupchak and pressing salary cap issues.
  • Grizzlies, J.B. Bickerstaff — He’s not new in town, as Bickerstaff held the job for most of this season, but the interim title has finally been removed. He took over a team ravaged by injuries to Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons and Tyreke Evans, and even though his record doesn’t look good at 15-48, the front office was happy with how Bickerstaff developed the team’s younger players. A healthier roster should give him a better chance to compete next season.
  • Knicks, David Fizdale — The hottest free agent on the coaching market landed in New York. Fizdale was a highly respected assistant in Miami before getting the head coaching job in Memphis, which resulted in one playoff appearance and a 19-game stretch this season before being fired. He’ll get a shot at redemption in New York, but walks into a difficult situation with uncertainty about when Kristaps Porzingis might return from a torn ACL.
  • Suns, Igor Kokoskov — He made his reputation as coach of the Slovenian national team before coming to the NBA as an assistant in 2000. Kokoskov has prior experience in Phoenix, helping to guide the organization to some of its best seasons with Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire. He will take over a roster that already has one young star in Devin Booker and owns a 25% shot at landing the top pick in the lottery.

We want to get your feedback on all the coaching moves. Considering their respective rosters and their expectations for the future, which of the five teams made the best hire? Please share your opinion in the comments section below.

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Poll: Boston Celtics Vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

May 12th, 2018 at 3:51pm CST by clarkcrum

Seven months ago, nobody would have been surprised to learn that the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals would pit the Celtics against the Cavaliers. In fact, most probably would have expected these two teams to be where they are.

Yet, after a season filled with drama for both franchises, with the Cavs trading away half of their team midway through the season and the Celts losing both Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to injuries, the match-up isn’t quite what many would have expected in the preseason.

The Cavaliers, looking to reach their fourth consecutive NBA Finals, are considered to be the favorite by most, as they still have the best player in the world on their side. LeBron James is averaging a ridiculous 34.9/9.4/9.0 so far this postseason and the Celtics and head coach Brad Stevens will have their hands full trying to contain him throughout the series.

The regular season series finished in favor of Cleveland, with the Cavaliers blowing out the Celtics in Boston back in February after the teams each won a game on their home floor earlier in the season.

However, the first game the teams played – in the season opener – was marred by Hayward’s injury, and the win in February by Cleveland saw huge contributions by newly acquired players Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, and Larry Nance – players who have seen their minutes reduced this postseason.

So what do you think? Which team do you expect to represent the East in the NBA Finals? Place your vote, then jump into the comment section below to discuss the series.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 5/5/18 – 5/12/18

May 12th, 2018 at 3:03pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, we here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Here are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

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