Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Will Eastern Favorites Survive Round One?

On Monday night, the Rockets and Jazz took commanding leads in their respective first-round series, joining the Warriors among the Western teams holding a 3-1 edge. In the fourth Western Conference series, the Pelicans have already advanced, so barring an unlikely comeback by the Timberwolves, Thunder, or Spurs, it looks like we may not get much more drama out west in round one.

The same can’t be said for the Eastern Conference though. Heading into Tuesday night, three of four series are tied at two games apiece, and the Sixers/Heat matchup – where Philadelphia holds a 3-1 lead – has also been entertaining and competitive.

While the Raptors, Cavaliers, and Celtics are still the favorites to advance to the second round, there are areas of concern for all three clubs heading into Game 5. The Raps fell back on same old playoff habits in Game 4 when they failed to move the ball as effectively as they have for much of the season; the Cavs’ supporting cast around LeBron James has been inconsistent; and the C’s have just been hit hard by injuries, though Marcus Smart‘s return appears imminent.

Meanwhile, the opponents in those three series are flawed, but dangerous. The Wizards are led by a pair of All-Stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal, and that backcourt can be hard to stop when it gets going; the Bucks have one of the NBA’s best players in Giannis Antetokounmpo; and the Pacers are a deep and well-coached squad headed by a potential All-NBA guard in Victor Oladipo.

We’ve essentially got a trio of best-of-three series on our hands in the East, and while it’s still possible that we won’t get any upsets, the underdogs have proven that they’ll make things difficult for the conference’s top seeds.

What do you think? Will the Raptors, Celtics, and Cavaliers all survive their first-round scares or will one or more of those teams get bounced in the first round? Vote below in our poll, then jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth 125% of his prior salary, or his minimum salary plus $200K, whichever is greater. For instance, after earning $1,312,611 this season, Fred VanVleet will be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $1,699,698 this offseason — that’s calculated by adding $200,000 to his minimum salary for 2018/19 ($1,499,698). Malcolm Delaney‘s 2017/18 salary, meanwhile, was $2,500,000, so his qualifying offer will be worth 125% of that figure: $3,125,000.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. The qualifying offer for a first overall pick is 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it’s 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2014, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

Here are a pair of examples for this offseason, based on RealGM’s chart: 2014’s fourth overall pick Aaron Gordon, coming off a fourth-year salary of $5,504,420, must be extended a qualifying offer of $7,260,330 (a 31.9% increase) to become a restricted free agent. 23rd overall pick Rodney Hood will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,472,887, a 45.5% increase on this season’s $2,386,864 salary.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for certain RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. The CBA identifies the “starter criteria” as starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes per season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. A player meets the starter criteria if he compiles at least 41 starts or 2,000 minutes in the season prior to his free agency, or averages at least that many starts or minutes over the two seasons before he becomes a free agent. Here’s how the starter criteria affects qualifying offers:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.

You can find examples of free-agents-to-be to whom these conditions apply right here.

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

During the 2017 offseason, for instance, Nerlens Noel and Alex Len signed their respective qualifying offers. Their teams likely would’ve been willing to negotiate longer-term deals (Noel reportedly turned down a lucrative four-year offer at the start of free agency), but neither player had a ton of leverage. Noel and Len ultimately felt it would be in their best interest to accept that one-year qualifying offer and reach unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019.

Finally, while the details outlined above apply to players on standard NBA contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency, a different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with $50K guaranteed.

If a player coming off a two-way contract is ineligible to sign another one – either because he has already been on two-way deals with his current team for two seasons or because he has three years of NBA service – his qualifying offer would be a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract. The guarantee on that QO would have to match or exceed what a two-way player would earn in the G League. Timberwolves two-way player Anthony Brown is one example of a player who would be eligible for this form of qualifying offer this summer.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2013.

2018 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Phoenix Suns

The NBA’s worst team in 2017/18, the Suns won fewer than 25 games for a third straight season and posted their worst record since 1968/69, the franchise’s first year of existence. As dismal as that sounds, Devin Booker continues to look like a franchise cornerstone, and young players like Josh Jackson showed promise. With a pair of first-round picks in hand – including a top-four selection – and some salary cap flexibility, the Suns are optimistic they can make a splash this summer and finally take a step toward contention in 2018/19.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially, as we kick off our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2018:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • Elfrid Payton ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $9,997,020 cap hold)
  • Total: $9,997,020

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • No. 1 overall pick ($8,095,595)4
  • Alex Len ($7,956,438): Bird rights
  • No. 16 overall pick ($2,589,510)
  • Total: $18,641,543

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $18,958,539

  • While the Suns only have about $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, they may have to account for more than $10MM in cap holds for their two first-round picks, which significantly cuts into their potential cap room. Our projection assumes that Phoenix retains its nine guaranteed contracts, plus Reed and its two first-rounders, totaling $82,041,516. In that scenario, the Suns would renounce Payton and Len, and waive their non-guaranteed players. The team could create more room via trades or cuts, and would also open up a little more space with bad draft lottery luck — the cap hold for the No. 4 overall pick would only be $5,864,640.

Footnotes:

  1. Reed’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
  2. Williams can reportedly trigger a $1MM partial guarantee by meeting certain weight, body fat, and minute requirements. His salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
  3. Harrison’s exact contract details aren’t yet known.
  4. The Suns are first in the draft lottery standings, giving them a 25% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. They also could end up at No. 2 ($7,243,344), No. 3 ($6,504,619), or No. 4 ($5,864,636).

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Can Budenholzer Return To Hawks?

Mike Budenholzer has interviewed for two of the NBA’s open head coaching positions so far this offseason, meeting with the Suns and Knicks about their vacancies. Budenholzer withdrew from consideration for the Phoenix job, but is reportedly interested in landing in New York.

The only problem? Budenholzer already has a coaching job, with two years and about $13-14MM remaining on his contract with the Hawks. While Atlanta has been willing to let Budenholzer interview for other jobs, the team has maintained that it’s open to bringing back its head coach for the 2018/19 season.

Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is skeptical, writing today that he finds it hard to believe that Budenholzer could remain the Hawks’ head coach going forward. As Cunningham outlines, Budenholzer wasn’t thrilled to lose personnel decision-making power to GM Travis Schlenk a year ago, and isn’t all that interested in working through a long rebuilding process in Atlanta.

A person familiar with Budenholzer’s plans tells Cunningham that the head coach would be ready to return to Atlanta if he doesn’t get another job, and the Hawks have maintained that they could be on board with that scenario too. But Cunningham views that scenario as untenable, since it’d be hard for Hawks players to commit to a lame-duck coach who may have his eye on other jobs.

The best-case scenario for both Budenholzer and the Hawks would for him to find another situation he likes, and for that team to offer Atlanta a fair compensation package to let him out of his current contract. That way, Budenholzer could move on to a more favorable situation and Atlanta’s new management group could hand-pick a new head coach after having gotten out from under Budenholzer’s contract.

If Budenholzer doesn’t get an offer though, or if a team that wants him isn’t willing to give the Hawks compensation to let him go, the situation could get messy. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if Budenholzer ultimately remains in Atlanta – Dave Joerger signed an extension with the Grizzlies in 2014 after they let him interview with the Timberwolves – but it wouldn’t be ideal either.

What do you think? Can the Hawks bring Budenholzer back? Will they have the opportunity to make that decision, or will he be offered a job by another team? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Poll Results: 2018 All-NBA Teams

In an NBA season packed with incredible performances and remarkable statistical achievements, we wanted to let you make the call on which 15 players are most deserving of All-NBA recognition.

Last Monday, we opened voting for the All-NBA First Team. We moved on to the Second Team on Wednesday, and then opened the polls for the Third Team on Friday. The results of all those polls are in, so let’s check them out.

All-NBA First Team

All-NBA Second Team

All-NBA Third Team

Your top vote-getters in the final round of polling that didn’t quite earn spots on the Third Team: DeMar DeRozan (Raptors), Kyrie Irving (Celtics), Jimmy Butler (Timberwolves), Al Horford (Celtics), and Nikola Jokic (Nuggets).

My personal All-NBA choices would look pretty similar to yours, albeit with a few small changes. Booker was an out-of-left-field choice for the Third Team here, and I’d expect DeRozan or Irving to take his place in the actual voting. I’d want to make room for Oladipo on the Second Team, likely at Curry’s expense — Curry was phenomenal, but only appeared in 51 games, which hurts his case. Rudy Gobert also didn’t play a full season, appearing in just 56 games, but his defense was so game-changing for the Jazz that I’d be tempted to put him on the Third Team in place of Towns.

What do you think? Do you disagree strongly with any of these choices? Do you expect major discrepancies when the official All-NBA teams are announced? Let us know in the comments section!

Weekly Mailbag: 4/16/18 – 4/22/18

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Who says no: Lakers trade Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and 2019 1st round pick to Spurs for Kawhi Leonard? — VJ Cruz, via Twitter

If the Spurs make the decision to trade Leonard, that would be an exceptional return, even though L.A. would likely become a playoff team and next year’s pick won’t be very high. Several things have to happen to get to that point. First, Leonard has to turn down a supermax offer and the Spurs need to be convinced he will opt out and become a free agent next summer. Next, the Lakers have to strike on Plan A, which is to get LeBron James with either Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins in free agency. The Lakers like Ingram an awful lot, and Kuzma has shown he has a bright future. If L.A. is willing to make this offer for Leonard, it may be the best one the Spurs get.

Does anyone want to talk about the East vs West disparity in talent? Does anyone think the Sixers would sweep the Pels? The East seems overmatched in talent. — CH O, via Twitter

The West has enjoyed better talent for a few years, but young teams in the East are cutting into that disparity. The Rockets and Warriors would probably be favored against any Eastern team in the Finals, but the rest of the seeds are much more even: Trail Blazers vs. Sixers, Thunder vs. Cavaliers, Jazz vs. Pacers, Pelicans vs. Heat, Spurs vs. Bucks and Timberwolves vs. Wizards. These things go in cycles, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Celtics, Sixers or Bucks become the NBA’s next dominant team.

The Clippers signed C.J. Williams, but why LAC didn’t sign Tyrone Wallace? Wallace was 10 times better than Williams. — Richard Garcia

Both were two-way players who saw significant playing time during their 45-day NBA limits, and statistically Wallace was quite a bit better. Williams played 38 games, started 17, and averaged 5.5 points and 1.1 assists per night. Wallace saw action in 30 games, starting 19, and averaged 9.7 points and 2.4 assists. Williams also turned 28 in February, while Wallace is still 23, so he seems like the better long-term investment. Ultimately, it came down to money. Williams was willing to accept a contract with no guarantees for the next two seasons, while Wallace’s representatives were seeking a better deal. They may both be back with the Clippers next season, but Wallace can take a shot at free agency first.

Community Shootaround: Portland Trail Blazers

After exceeding expectations during the regular season, the Trail Blazers went the other way in the playoffs. Coming in as the No. 3 seed in the West, Portland is the first team to exit the postseason after a shocking sweep by the Pelicans.

The focus now turns to next year and how to improve a team that won 49 games. The Blazers are already about $10MM over the salary cap for 2018/19, and that number could go significantly higher. Jusuf Nurkic, Shabazz Napier and Pat Connaughton are all eligible for extensions this summer, with their qualifying offers combining for nearly $10MM.

Nurkic will be looking for a big-money deal after averaging 14.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in 79 games. He established himself as Portland’s starting center immediately after being acquired from the Nuggets in a trade last season and won’t be easy to replace if the Blazers decide he’s not affordable.

Most of the team’s salary is tied up in the starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, who are both signed to rich contracts through the 20/21 season. In addition, Evan Turner will make more than $36MM over the next two years, and Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard are each around $22MM for the same time frame, meaning no cap relief is coming until at least the summer of 2020.

President of basketball operations Neil Olshey has to decide this summer if the current approach will keep the Blazers competitive or if major changes are needed. Rumors are already circulating that head coach Terry Stotts may be fired after six years on the bench. But the only way to bring radical change is to break up the high-priced backcourt. Lillard is owed more than $89.4MM over the next three seasons, while McCollum will get more than $82.6MM. Either one would bring a healthy trade package in return, and a deal could help ease the financial logjam.

What would you do if you were running the Blazers? Would you break up one of the best backcourts in the NBA, or is there a better solution? Please give us your feedback in the comments section below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 4/14/18 – 4/21/18

Every week, we here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Here are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

The Impact Of A Torn ACL On An NBA Player

The pain was bearable, but Al Jefferson still had tears in his eyes. One night after he injured his knee after a routine block, Jefferson sat inside a doctor’s office; his season was over and he wondered if his career was too.

It was February 8, 2009, when Jefferson, then a member of the Timberwolves, swatted a dunk attempt by Sean Marks, the current general manager of the Nets. Jefferson landed awkwardly on his right knee, hopped nine times on his left foot, and collapsed to the hardwood.

“What happened was, I went up and blocked a shot, I blocked it on the backboard and threw my body off so I came down wrong,” Jefferson told Hoops Rumors in February during a Pacers shootaround in Brooklyn. “I heard [my ACL] pop, as soon as I hit the ground. I was like ‘Oh, s**t!’”

Jefferson said he wanted to return to the game, but with 27 seconds left, it wasn’t worth risking further injury. In reality, Jefferson’s injury was as serious as it gets.

“I actually injured my MCL earlier that year and that was more pain,” Jefferson said. “I’m thinking like, ‘Oh, it’s not as bad, the pain is going away.’ So, when I went and got the MRI and [the doctor] told me it was an ACL tear, I just remember tears in my eyes thinking ‘ugh!’”

Jefferson, 24 at the time, was in the midst of his best season, averaging 23.1 PPG and 11.0 RPG. He was viewed as a potential cornerstone for a rebuilding Minnesota team that featured talented rookie and future All-Star Kevin Love.

Two years removed from the departure of Kevin Garnett, Jefferson’s development was vital to the Timberwolves’ future. That future hinged on the ligaments inside the 6’10” center’s right knee.

The ACL is a thick, index finger-sized cord that stabilizes the knee and is one of four main ligaments that connects the femur (thighbone) to the tibia (shinbone). A tear of the ACL is usually caused by a swift change in direction, which is common among basketball players. The injury is often times a freak accident on a routine play and not the result of years of wear and tear.

Statistics compiled by the ACL Recovery Club and Hoops Rumors show that since 1970, 97 NBA players suffered a torn ACL either before or after their debut. Of those 97 players, nine of them suffered the injury twice.

“I had my injury in 2009. You look back to the 1980s, [a torn ACL] was pretty much a career-ending injury,” Jefferson said.

Jefferson is right. From 1970 through 1990, 18 players tore their ACL and eight of them played three or fewer seasons after their return. The list of players who never played again after a torn ACL include Hall-of-Famer Billy Cunningham, 1973 first overall pick Doug Collins, and NBA champion Chris Andersen.

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Poll: 2018 All-NBA Third Team

In an NBA season packed with incredible individual performances, we’re letting you decide which 15 players are most deserving of All-NBA recognition.

On Monday, we opened voting for the All-NBA First Team, and 36 hours later, we had answers for which five players you believe deserve spots on that team. On Wednesday, we published polls for the All-NBA Second Team, and we have now have our five players for that squad too. While there were some clear-cut winners in the Second Team polls, the results at guard – where the top three finishers were within 23 votes – were particularly interesting.

Here are the voting results so far:

All-NBA First Team

All-NBA Second Team

While your First Team picks didn’t include any players who missed more than 10 games this season, you were a little more willing to reward exceptional injury-shortened performances on the Second Team. Durant and Embiid appeared in just 68 and 63 games, respectively, while Curry only played 51. If those three players had been able to stay healthy for a full 80+ games, they would’ve been strong candidates for spots on the First Team.

We’re moving on today to the All-NBA Third Team, so cast your votes below for the two guards, two forwards, and one center that you believe are most deserving of being named to that squad. Don’t forget that a few players — including Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, and Al Horford — qualify at two positions.

You’ll have until Monday morning before we close this round of voting and round up the final results. You can also select two players apiece in the guard and forward polls, so be sure to take advantage of that.

Who should be on the All-NBA Third Team?

Guards:

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on the All-NBA Third Team guards.

Forwards:

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on the All-NBA Third Team forwards.

Center:

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on the All-NBA Third Team center.