Hoops Rumors Originals

Revisiting 2017/18 NBA Over/Under Predictions

Before the 2017/18 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Warriors (67.5) to the Bulls (22.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

The results of our polls suggested that the respondents were generally bullish on most NBA teams heading into 2017/18, with the “over” winning the vote for 23 teams, compared to just seven for the “under.” As I noted at the time, that outcome wasn’t technically impossible, but the unbalanced split indicated that we were probably a little too optimistic about some teams.

Nearly six months later, let’s check in on the results, comparing our over/under voting to each club’s actual win-loss record for 2017/18:

Western Conference:

  1. Golden State Warriors: Over 67.5: ✖️ (58-24)
  2. Houston Rockets: Over 55.5: ✔️ (65-17)
  3. San Antonio Spurs: Over 54.5: ✖️ (47-35)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 50.5: ✖️ (48-34)
  5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Over 48.5: ✖️ (47-35)
  6. Denver Nuggets: Under 45.5: ✖️ (46-36)
  7. Los Angeles Clippers: Over 43.5: ✖️ (42-40)
  8. Portland Trail Blazers: Over 42.5: ✔️ (49-33)
  9. Utah Jazz: Over 41.5: ✔️ (48-34)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Over 39.5: ✔️ (48-34)
  11. Memphis Grizzlies: Over 37.5: ✖️ (22-60)
  12. Dallas Mavericks: Under 35.5: ✔️ (24-58)
  13. Los Angeles Lakers: Over 33.5: ✔️ (35-47)
  14. Phoenix Suns: Over 28.5: ✖️ (21-61)
  15. Sacramento Kings: Over 27.5: ✖️ (27-55)
    Total record: 6-9

Eastern Conference:

  1. Boston Celtics: Over 55.5: ✖️ (55-27)
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 53.5: ✖️ (50-32)
  3. Toronto Raptors: Over 48.5: ✔️ (59-23)
  4. Washington Wizards: Over 47.5: ✖️ (43-39)
  5. Milwaukee Bucks: Over 47.5: ✖️ (44-38)
  6. Miami Heat: Over 43.5: ✔️ (44-38)
  7. Charlotte Hornets: Over 42.5: ✖️ (36-46)
  8. Philadelphia 76ers: Under 41.5: ✖️ (52-30)
  9. Detroit Pistons: Over 38.5: ✔️ (39-43)
  10. Orlando Magic: Under 33.5: ✔️ (25-57)
  11. Indiana Pacers: Under 31.5: ✖️ (48-34)
  12. New York Knicks: Under 30.5: ✔️ (29-53)
  13. Brooklyn Nets: Over 27.5: ✔️ (28-54)
  14. Atlanta Hawks: Over 25.5: ✖️ (24-58)
  15. Chicago Bulls: Under 22.5: ✖️ (27-55)
    Total record: 6-9

The lesson here? As always, don’t bet against Vegas. We made some nice calls, with our “over” picks on the Raptors, Trail Blazers, Jazz, and Pelicans turning out particularly well. But we were way off on several other teams — the Grizzlies missed their “over” projection by 16 games, while the Pacers missed going “under” 31.5 wins by a staggering 17 games. In total, we had a 12-18 record on over/under predictions.

So our overall results weren’t great, but did our “best bets” do any better? Let’s take a look. These were the five predictions that received the largest share of the vote:

  1. Orlando Magic: Under 33.5 (75.24%): ✔️
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 50.5 (71.77%): ✖️
  3. Washington Wizards: Over 47.5 (71.29%): ✖️
  4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 53.5 (68.82%): ✖️
  5. San Antonio Spurs: Over 54.5 (67.74%): ✖️

Our Magic pick looks good, but our optimism for the Thunder, Wizards, Cavs, and Spurs went unrewarded. Injuries played some part in Washington and San Antonio falling short of their projections, with John Wall and Kawhi Leonard missing significant time. But Cleveland and Oklahoma City were mostly just too inconsistent over the course of the season to reach their projected win totals.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with our predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Western Conference Playoff Seeding

11:54pm: The Trail Blazers have defeated the Jazz in their regular season finale and clinched the No. 3 seed with the win. Here are the first-round matchups in the Western Conference:

  • Rockets (No. 1) vs. Timberwolves (No. 8)
  • Warriors (No. 2) vs. Spurs (No. 7)
  • Trail Blazers (No. 3) vs. Pelicans (No. 6)
  • Thunder (No. 4) vs. Jazz (No. 5)

9:47pm: The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets and clinched the final spot in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. We now know the following.

  • The Nuggets will miss the playoffs
  • The Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed.
  • The Spurs are the No. 7 seed.
  • If the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz:
    • Pelicans are No. 6
    • Jazz are No. 5
    • Thunder are No. 4
    • Blazers are No. 3
  • If the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers:
    • Thunder are No. 6
    • Pelicans are No. 5
    • Blazers are No. 4
    • Jazz are No. 3

8:54pm: The Thunder lead the Grizzlies by 12 with less than nine minutes remaining, while the Pelicans lead the Spurs by 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Barring a surprise comeback by Memphis or San Antonio, here is how the playoff picture looks after wins by Oklahoma City and New Orleans.

Jazz: 3 or 5

Trail Blazers: 3 or 4

Thunder: 4 or 6

Pelicans: 5 or 6

Spurs: 7 or 8

Timberwolves: 8 or 9

Nuggets: 7 or 9

4:37pm: As we indicated earlier today, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will face-off tonight with the final spot of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on the line.

And while that game will be the only winner-gets-in, loser-gets-eliminated contest tonight, there are numerous other games with playoff seeding implications on the line. In the Western Conference, only the Rockets and the Warriors know their playoff seeding. Seeds three through eight are all still up for grabs, as follows:

Jazz: 3, 4, or 5

Trail Blazers: 3, 4, or 5

Pelicans: 5, 6, 7, or 8

Spurs: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8

Thunder: 4, 6, or 8

Timberwolves: 6, 7, 8, or 9

Nuggets: 6, 7, or 9

We will be updating the Western Conference playoff seeding scenarios – in real time – as games finish this evening, so stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for all relevant up-to-the-minute developments.  For now, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:

  • The Jazz and Trail Blazers winner gets the No. 3 seed.
  • The Thunder will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies.
  • As noted above, the loser of the Nuggets and Wolves will finish ninth in the Western Conference standings.

Eastern Conference Playoff Seeding

9:38pm: The Heat have beaten the Raptors, meaning we know the playoff pairings and seeds for the Eastern Conference.

  • Raptors (No. 1) vs. Wizards (No. 8)
  • Celtics (No. 2) vs. Bucks (No. 7)
  • Sixers (No. 3) vs. Heat (No. 6)
  • Cavaliers (No. 4) vs. Pacers (No. 5)

9:32pm: The Magic have beaten the Wizards.  We now know the following.

  • The Wizards are the No. 8 seed, which means the only seeds still up for grabs are the 6 and 7 seeds.
  • If MIA wins, they are the No. 6 seed and MIL is No. 7.
  • If TOR wins, MIL is the No. 6 seed and MIA is No. 7.

9:05pm: Philadelphia now leads Milwaukee by 34 points with less than eight minutes remaining. Safe to say, the Sixers aren’t losing this game. As such, we now know the following.

  • The Sixers are the No. 3 seed.
  • The Cavaliers are the No. 4 seed.
  • The Heat will be the No. 6 seed with a win over the Raptors.

8:18pm: At halftime of both games, the Knicks lead the Cavs by 20 and the Sixers lead the Bucks by an all-but insurmountable 36 points. Barring an epic turnaround, the Sixers will be the No. 3 seed and the Cavs will be the No. 4 seed.

6:07pm: While not as undecided as the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference still has some seeding implications in tonight’s games as well. Like the top two seeds in the West, both the Raptors and Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the East, respectively.

Likewise, the Pacers will be the No. 5 seed regardless of tonight’s results. However, seeds three, four, and six through eight are still up in the air, as follows:

Sixers: 3 or 4

Cavaliers: 3 or 4

Bucks: 6, 7, or 8

Heat: 6, 7, or 8

Wizards: 6, 7, or 8

As we did for the Western Conference, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:

  • The Sixers will be the No. 3 seed with a win over the Bucks.
  • The Cavs will be the No. 4 seed with a loss to the Knicks.
  • The Bucks will be the No. 6 seed with a win over the Sixers.
  • The Wizards will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Magic.

We will be updating the Eastern Conference playoff seeding scenarios as the night goes on, so stay with us throughout the evening. The playoff seeding should be set by the time we sign off.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Detroit Pistons

The Pistons made it clear with their midseason blockbuster that they’re interested in competing in the Eastern Conference right away. While we won’t truly know the outcome of the Blake Griffin trade until the roster logs a full, reasonably healthy season together, there’s no denying that the franchise is committed to this core for better or worse.

With over $117MM already on the books for 2018/19, president Stan Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower have little room to get cute in free agency this summer. For that reason, the Pistons will have to rely primarily on in-house upgrades, and any reinforcements that do come from elsewhere will need to be modest.

James Ennis, SF, 28 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $6MM deal in 2016James Ennis of the Detroit Pistons
The Pistons brought Ennis aboard in one of their deadline-day deals, seemingly desperate to pad their core with solid veterans. While Ennis is typically a glue guy, capable of knocking down shots and contributing defensively, it’s hard to imagine that he showed enough during his half-season in Detroit to justify a raise — or even a similar contract to his current deal. The Pistons could benefit from having Ennis’ toughness on the perimeter as they look to establish themselves in the East, but they could probably seek out that skill-set on the cheap if they want to trim their overall payroll.

Jameer Nelson, PG, 36 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
One can’t fault Van Gundy for turning to a former pupil to help his current team take the next step, but the acquisition of Nelson has to be considered – by and large – a disappointment. The veteran point guard only played seven games during his time with the Pistons and was usurped on the depth chart by Dwight Buycks. With Reggie Jackson back in the fold for 2018/19, the team will already have three relatively capable options at the point, leaving little room for Nelson.

Anthony Tolliver, PF, 32 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $3MM deal in 2017
It was a disappointing season for the Pistons, but one consistent presence that helped provide stability as the club dealt with injuries and personnel turnover was Tolliver. Fresh off the second-highest scoring year of his 10-year career, Tolliver will be an intriguing free agency option for contenders looking to add veteran leadership. He stepped up in 2017/18, showing that he’s more than just a solid locker-room presence, shooting 43.3% from beyond the arc while registering an offensive rating of 125. If the Pistons truly plan on breaking into the postseason picture next season, they’d be wise to bring the 32-year-old combo forward back, since he can fit into whatever role or position the team needs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

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Community Shootaround: Time To Rebuild The Clippers?

The scramble for Western Conference playoff spots got a little smaller today as the Clippers were officially eliminated with a 19-point loss to the Nuggets. It marks the end of a six-year playoff run for the franchise and may signal the start of a rebuilding project in L.A.

There’s an argument to be made that the process is already under way. It may have begun when Chris Paul demanded a trade to Houston last June, then was accelerated when Blake Griffin was shipped to Detroit. Paul and Griffin were the foundation for the greatest years the formerly downtrodden Clippers have ever experienced, and it feels like the team has already entered a new era.

The most consequential decision facing the Clippers this summer is out of their hands. DeAndre Jordan can opt out of a $24.12MM salary for next season and become an unrestricted free agent. Jordan, who has been with the franchise throughout his 10-year career, remains the cornerstone of the defense and one of the league’s best rebounders. Taking his salary off the books would open a ton of cap room, but there’s not an obvious replacement on the roster.

Also facing opt-out decisions are Austin Rivers ($12.65MM), Milos Teodosic ($6.3MM) and Wesley Johnson ($6.13MM). Rivers seems likely to stay as long as his father is the head coach, but that’s another area where change could be coming.

Doc Rivers has one year left on his contract, and a mutual parting could be in the works. Rivers lost influence in the organization when he was squeezed out of a front office job last offseason and may prefer to go someplace where he’ll have a say about personnel matters. Rivers once said he didn’t want to stay in Boston for a rebuilding project, and he probably has the same attitude toward Los Angeles.

Barring trades, the only sure things for the Clippers’ roster next season are Danilo Gallinari, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, Jawun Evans and Sindarius Thornwell. Patrick Beverley, who missed almost the entire season with a knee injury, has a nonguaranteed $5MM salary.

The news isn’t all bad for the Clippers, who will have their own lottery pick, along with the Pistons’ if it falls outside the top four. Detroit is 12th in our latest Reverse Standings and would need a lot of luck to hold onto the pick.

What would you do if you were running the Clippers? Would you re-sign Jordan if he opts out and try to start a new playoff streak, or is it time to start selling off the veterans and start over? Jump into the comments section below and give us your thoughts.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/31/18 – 4/7/18

Every week, we here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Here are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

  • Generally, NBA teams fill up their 15 roster spots by the end of the regular season, so we identified the seven teams that still have openings on their squads.
  • In the latest installment of his Free Agent Stock Watch series, Austin Kent took a closer look at the Nets‘ 2018 free agents, including Joe Harris and former third overall pick Jahlil Okafor.
  • Due to the protections on them, it’s still not clear where a handful of this year’s traded draft picks will land. We looked at five protected traded draft picks for 2018 that are worth watching closely down the stretch.
  • When 2018’s window for 10-day contract signings ended, I broke down some numbers on this year’s 10-day deals — in total, 61 of those contracts were signed by 20 NBA teams, including eight by the Pelicans.
  • Arthur Hill answered questions about the Knicks‘ point guard situation, the Nets‘ 2018 first-round pick, and tanking in this week’s mailbag.
  • Our polls this week focused on the upcoming playoffs — we asked which two Western Conference contenders would miss out on the postseason and gauged your thoughts on how far the Celtics will advance in the playoffs after Kyrie Irving‘s season-ending surgery.
  • Our lone Community Shootaround discussion this week revolved around 2018’s Basketball Hall of Fame class. Which of the new inductees had the most impressive career?

NBA Teams That Still Have Open Roster Spots

Unless an NBA team is ravaged by injuries, it likely won’t use the 15th man on its roster very often. Many teams dedicate that spot to a prospect who spends much of his time in the G League rather than with the NBA squad. Other teams don’t even bother carrying a full 15-man roster, creating modest savings by not having to pay a player in that final slot.

Still, by the end of the regular season, most teams have filled their 15 roster spots in one way or another. If a club signs a player with one or two days left in the season, the money owed to that player for the current year is extremely minimal. Additionally, those deals often include non-guaranteed salaries for the following season, allowing a team to take an extended look at the player during the summer.

With six days left in the 2017/18 season, several teams still have open roster spots, but there’s a good chance that most – or all – of these clubs will fill those slots with free agents by next Wednesday.

Here are the teams that still have an open roster slot and are worth watching in the coming days:

  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
    • Note: The Cavs have two open roster spots and will need to sign at least one player before the regular season ends.
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Toronto Raptors
  • Washington Wizards

2017/18’s 10-Day Contract Window Ends

Wednesday, April 11 represents the last day of the 2017/18 NBA regular season, which means there are just nine days left in this season. As such, we won’t see another 10-day contract signed this season, since a simple rest-of-season deal would run through the final nine days of the year.

With no more 10-day contracts on the way for 2017/18, we’ll make use of our 10-day tracker to break down a few details on this year’s 10-day signings. Let’s dive in…

Total number of 10-day contracts signed:

  • Signed one 10-day contract: 19
  • Signed one 10-day contract, then signed for rest of season: 3
  • Signed two 10-day contracts: 8
  • Signed two 10-day contracts, then signed for rest of season: 12
  • Total 10-day contracts signed: 61

While the number of 10-day contracts signed this season will stay at 61, the number of players who signed rest-of-season contracts after inking a 10-day deal or two could still increase. Larry Drew II (Pelicans), MarShon Brooks (Grizzlies), David Stockton (Jazz), Xavier Silas (Celtics), Jeremy Evans (Hawks) have active 10-day contracts. Those players could be re-signed when their current contracts expire.

Teams that completed the most 10-day signings:

  • New Orleans Pelicans: 8 (four players)
  • Atlanta Hawks: 7 (four players)
  • Dallas Mavericks: 5 (four players)
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 5 (four players)
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 4 (three players)
  • Orlando Magic: 4 (two players)
  • Phoenix Suns: 4 (two players)
  • Utah Jazz: 4 (two players)

No NBA team signed more than four different players to 10-day contracts this season. Of those teams that signed four players to 10-day deals, the Pelicans were the most inclined to extend a player’s audition — they re-signed all four of their 10-day players to a second 10-day deal, and ultimately locked up both Emeka Okafor and DeAndre Liggins for the season.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Grizzlies hadn’t re-signed any of their 10-day contract recipients to second deals until they locked up Marquis Teague for the rest of the season today.

Teams that didn’t complete any 10-day signings:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Denver Nuggets
  • Detroit Pistons
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Sacramento Kings
  • San Antonio Spurs

For many of the teams on this list, roster limits prevented a 10-day signing — with full 15-man rosters, they would have needed to waive a player on a guaranteed contract in order to sign a player to a 10-day contract. However, that wasn’t the case for every club on this list.

The Hornets, for instance, have carried an open roster spot for most of the season — they’ve perhaps been more concerned with finding a new general manager than with auditioning a 15th man. Charlotte probably also doesn’t have much interest in further increasing its $117MM+ team salary for a lottery-bound squad.

The Timberwolves are another team that has been carrying 14 players, giving them the ability to sign players to 10-day contracts without making a corresponding roster move. Of course, considering how averse Tom Thibodeau is to using even the ninth or 10th man on his bench, adding a player to that 15th spot was probably deemed unnecessary.

10-day MVPs:

While no players have really parlayed 10-day contracts into true breakout years this season, there are a handful of guys who turned 10-day auditions into regular rotation roles and have been solid contributors for their respective clubs. Emeka Okafor (Pelicans) headlines that list — he assumed the starting center role after DeMarcus Cousins went down, and has played well, with 4.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 1.1 BPG in 23 games (14.7 MPG).

Honorable mention:

  • Troy Williams (Knicks): 7.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, .490 FG% in 17 games (17.1 MPG).
  • Damion Lee (Hawks): 9.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG in 10 games (26.0 MPG).
  • Ramon Sessions (Wizards): 6.5 PPG, 3.7 APG, .400 3PT% in 13 games (16.9 MPG).
  • Travis Wear (Lakers): 5.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, .390 3PT% in 13 games (13.2 MPG)
  • MarShon Brooks (Grizzlies): 22.5 PPG, .600/.857/1.000 shooting in two games (20.0 MPG).