Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Which Teams Will Win In-Season Tournament Semifinals?

The semifinals of the NBA’s first-ever in-season tournament will be played on Thursday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the winners advancing to Saturday’s final.

It’s a safe bet the early game will be a shootout. The high-octane Pacers have the NBA’s best offensive rating by a significant margin at 123.6. But they give up plenty of points too — their 120.2 defensive rating ranks 28th in the league, ahead of only Charlotte and Washington.

The Bucks are poised to take advantage of the holes in Indiana’s defense. Milwaukee’s 119.2 offensive rating is the NBA’s third-best mark and the group has been firing on all cylinders as of late, putting up 132 points on Saturday vs. Atlanta and a season-high 146 in Tuesday’s quarterfinal victory over New York.

Tyrese Haliburton has perhaps been the breakout star of the in-season tournament, but he and the Pacers will be underdogs against a Bucks squad led by superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. BetOnline.ag currently lists Milwaukee as 5.5-point favorites.

Still, Indiana knocked off Boston in the quarterfinals and will perhaps benefit from what should be a neutral crowd in Las Vegas. The Pacers have a winning record away from home this season, while the Bucks are a modest 5-5 on the road.

The Lakers, on the other hand, may have a home-court edge in Thursday’s late game, given Vegas’ proximity to Los Angeles and the franchise’s sizable fan base. But they’re only favored by two points against a Pelicans team that’s as healthy now as it has been in quite some time.

While both Los Angeles and New Orleans have had to deal with injury issues during the first quarter of the 2023/24 season, they’re nearly at full strength heading into Thursday’s semifinal, with only Gabe Vincent expected to be out of action for L.A., while the Pelicans are just missing reserves Larry Nance Jr. and Matt Ryan.

Forwards LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram – along with guard CJ McCollum – are the headliners in this matchup, and a superstar-type performance from one or two of them could ultimately decide the game, but the Lakers’ and Pelicans’ supporting casts shouldn’t be overlooked. Role players like D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Herbert Jones, Jonas Valanciunas, and Trey Murphy are capable of being game-changing X-factors.

What do you think? Which two teams will prevail on Thursday and meet in the first-ever in-season tournament final on Saturday?

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Hardship Exception

Most “exceptions” available to an NBA team in a given league year – such as the mid-level, bi-annual, or minimum-salary exception – give that club some additional spending flexibility to continue adding players once its team salary has reached or exceeded the cap.

The hardship exception doesn’t fall into that category — it’s not related to the salary cap. Instead of granting a team extra spending power, a hardship exception gives the team the ability to temporarily carry one or more extra players on its standard roster.

A team qualifies for a hardship exception when it meets all of the following criteria:

  1. It has at least four players unavailable due to injury or illness.
  2. All four of those players have missed at least three consecutive games.
  3. All four of those players are expected to remain sidelined for at least two more weeks.

If a team meets those criteria, the NBA will grant a hardship exception, which gives the club the ability to sign a free agent to a 10-day contract even if its 15-man roster is already full.

Typically, the annual period for 10-day signings doesn’t open until January 5, but a team that qualifies for a hardship exception can sign a player to a 10-day contract prior to that date. When the player’s 10-day contract expires, he can be re-signed to another 10-day deal as long as the team still meets the criteria for a hardship exception.

The rules for standard 10-day contracts prohibit a player from signing more than two 10-day deals with the same team in a given season. That limit also applies to players signing 10-day contracts via hardship rules.

A team can qualify for multiple hardship exceptions simultaneously if it has more than four players who meet the hardship criteria. For instance, a team with five injured players who have missed three or more games and will remain out for at least two more weeks could be granted two extra roster spots via the hardship provision. A team with six players who fit that bill could be granted three extra roster spots, and so on.

The Grizzlies were the first team this season to request and receive a hardship exception, and since they had five injured players who met the hardship criteria (Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, and Jake LaRavia), they were granted two additional roster spots. They used their hardship exceptions to sign Jaylen Nowell and Shaquille Harrison to 10-day deals and have since re-signed Nowell.

Here are a few more rules related to the hardship exception:

  • Only players unavailable due to injury or illness can be counted toward a team’s sidelined players for hardship purposes. A player who is unavailable for other reasons (e.g. a personal absence, a suspension, etc.) would not qualify.
    • Note: For instance, if the Grizzlies only had three injured players, they wouldn’t be able to count suspended guard Ja Morant as a fourth unavailable player in order to qualify for a hardship exception. However, they were able to move him to the suspended list five games into his ban, temporarily opening up an extra roster spot that way.
  • If one of the four injured players is ready to return earlier than anticipated and a team that used a hardship exception no longer meets the criteria, that team must reduce its roster count to 15 players. In this scenario, most clubs would simply terminate the 10-day contract signed by their hardship addition, but a team could also keep that player and waive someone else instead.
  • If a player signs a hardship contract with fewer than 10 days left in the season, its expiry date is considered to be the last day of the regular season. The team wouldn’t hold any form of Bird rights on that player.
  • Only a team with a full 15-man roster can qualify for a hardship exception.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and ESPN’s Bobby Marks was used in the creation of this post.

Community Shootaround: OKC Thunder

For the last few seasons, the Thunder have been a paper tiger.

Top executive Sam Presti built a head-spinning stash of future draft picks through his wheeling and dealing. Oklahoma City is still owed 10 future first-rounders and even more second-round picks – it could easily create two additional teams in the next couple of years with all those selections.

The on-court performance began to perk up last season, as the Thunder collected 40 regular-season victories and won a game in the play-in tournament before getting eliminated by Minnesota.

Oklahoma City appears poised to make an even bigger mark this season. The Thunder sit second in the Western Conference and have won eight of their last 10 games.

Even a 30-0 Dallas run on Saturday didn’t deter the Thunder, as they emerged with a 126-120 victory.

A stable lineup, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has facilitated the hot start. Gilgeous-Alexander, a first time All-Star and All-NBA First Team selection last season, is once again filling up the stat sheet. He’s averaging 29.9 points, 6.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 2.4 steals while keeping his turnovers down (2.2).

After missing a full season due to foot issues, Chet Holmgren is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year. He’s posting quality numbers across the board – 17.6 points, a team-high 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.

Jalen Williams is also averaging 17.6 points and the lineup is filled out by Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort. Giddey gives the lineup another adept ball-handler – though he’s currently being investigated by law enforcement and the league for an alleged improper relationship.

Dort has had to sacrifice offensive opportunities after averaging 17.2 points per game two seasons ago but he’s still a key to their defense. Isaiah Joe is the team’s sixth man and rookie Cason Wallace has also made an impact.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What is the Thunder’s ceiling this season – can they make a deep playoff run? Should they trade some of the future draft picks from their stockpile for another impact player? If so, what do you think they need the most?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

NBA Waiver Order Now Based On 2023/24 Records

As of December 1, the NBA’s waiver priority order is determined by teams’ current-year records, rather than the previous season’s results.

That means, starting today, the waiver order for this season is based on teams’ 2023/24 records, with the worst teams getting the highest priority. In other words, if two teams place a claim on the same player, the team lower in this season’s NBA standings will be awarded that player.

Up until today, the waiver claim order was based on which teams had the worst records in 2022/23.

Waiver claims are relatively rare in the NBA, but it’s still worth noting which teams will have the first crack at intriguing players who may be cut over the next few weeks or months.

[RELATED: 2023/24 NBA Waiver Claims]

Here’s what the teams at the top of the NBA’s waiver order look like as of today:

  1. Detroit Pistons (2-17)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (3-15) (tie)
    Washington Wizards (3-15) (tie)
  3. Memphis Grizzlies (4-13)
  4. Chicago Bulls (6-14)
  5. Utah Jazz (6-13)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers (6-12)
  7. Charlotte Hornets (6-11)
  8. Los Angeles Clippers (8-10)
  9. Golden State Warriors (9-10) (tie)
    Toronto Raptors (9-10) (tie)

In instances where multiple teams have identical records, head-to-head record for the current season is used to break ties — the team with the worst winning percentage in head-to-head games gets the higher priority.

If the tied teams have yet to face one another or if they’ve split their head-to-head matchups, a coin flip determines priority for those teams. That would be the case for both the Spurs and Wizards and Warriors and Raptors right now, since those two pairs have yet to go up against each other this season.

If a waived player can’t be claimed using the minimum salary exception, a team must use a trade exception, a disabled player exception, or cap room to absorb his salary. So a club with a top priority won’t be in position to nab just anyone who reaches waivers.

The Pistons, for example, have no cap space or exceptions available to place a waiver claim on any player earning more than the minimum, so despite their spot at the top of the waiver order, their ability to claim players is somewhat limited.

Community Shootaround: Bottom Of The Standings

The NBA had a very intriguing matchup between two streaking teams on Monday night.

Don’t look at the top of the standings. This was a duel for the bottom of the barrel.

The Wizards brought a nine-game losing streak to Detroit on Monday. The Pistons had been drowning in even more misery, looking to end a 13-game slide. Washington won the game with ease as Detroit matched the longest losing streak in its franchise history.

While teams have only played about 20 percent of their schedules, it’s tough to imagine either club overcoming its awful start and challenging for a play-in spot.

They’re not the only franchises in danger of a “going nowhere” season. The Bulls have done little to dispel the notion that they need a major rebuild. They entered the week with only one fewer loss than those floundering Wizards and Pistons.

The Hornets have only won a handful of games and LaMelo Ball had to depart early in their last game due to an ankle injury.

Over in the West, Victor Wembanyama mania has died down. The Spurs have dropped 12 straight despite the addition of the highly-touted rookie.

The Grizzlies, saddled by injuries and awaiting the return of Ja Morant from suspension, have only one fewer loss than San Antonio. The Trail Blazers were expected to struggle after trading Damian Lillard and that’s been the case so far, as they’ve won only four games.

The Jazz, mainly due to a soft defense, have also gotten off to a very slow start.

That brings us to our topic of the day: Considering what’s happened in the first two months of the season, which teams do you believe will finish with the worst records in each conference? Do you think any of the above-mentioned teams can turn things around and make the postseason?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: In-Season Tournament Stakes

When the NBA sought to incorporate an in-season tournament into its regular season schedule for the first time, the league needed to answer two important questions about the event. What would make the tournament meaningful for its players, and what would make it meaningful for fans?

The NBA addressed the first question with a fairly simple answer: money. The teams that make the knockout round of the in-season tournament will earn cash prizes, ranging from $50K per player for quarterfinalists to $500K per player for the eventual champion.

It’s not a particularly elegant solution, but it sounds like it has be an effective one. Several players have spoken in recent weeks about the very real incentive that prize money has provided.

And it’s not just young players or minimum-salary veterans that are tantalized by the prospect of a $500K bonus, which might represent a huge portion of their year-end earnings. Even well-compensated stars like Anthony Davis have cited the cash incentive as a motivator that has helped those games feel more meaningful — the Lakers‘ 4-0 record in round robin play suggests that wasn’t just talk.

Still, while the bonus money provides an incentive for the players, most fans aren’t going to celebrate the fact that the guys on their favorite teams are getting an extra pay check. The NBA still needs to ensure the event feels meaningful for the people in the stands and those watching at home.

Finding an appropriate incentive that would appeal to fans as well as to players and teams is tricky. Awarding the winner(s) an extra draft pick was one option said to be discussed, but that would arguably be a disincentive for certain players, who may not want to fight to give their team the right to draft a younger, cheaper prospect who might replace them on the roster. Giving the winner(s) an extra cap exception was a similar idea thrown out there, but that would be a tough sell for casual fans and wouldn’t necessarily benefit teams.

An automatic playoff berth or some level of home-court advantage in the playoffs makes some sense, but the NBA has suggested it wants to keep the tournament separate from its postseason. The league may also risk further devaluing the regular season by locking in a playoff spot or home-court advantage for a team based on a handful of victories in November and December — what if that team falls off a cliff in the second half and finishes with 30 wins?

Ultimately, the NBA decided not to introduce any additional incentives beyond the prize money for players, which has made it difficult for some fans to get too invested in the event in its first year.

Of course, you could argue that a team’s NBA Finals victory doesn’t provide any special incentive to fans beyond the satisfaction of seeing your favorite team succeed on the league’s biggest stage. After all, it’s not as if fans receive cash prizes when their team wins a championship.

But the postseason in the spring is the culmination of an 82-game regular season and has established its importance over the course of the league’s history. It will take some time for an in-season tournament to stake out that sort of inherent meaningfulness — if it ever happens.

We want to know what you think. In order to make the in-season tournament more successful going forward, does the NBA need to introduce some sort of incentive for teams and fans beyond the bonus money for players? Or will the satisfaction of rooting for your favorite team to win games that are perhaps more competitive than typical November and December regular season contests ultimately be enough to make the tournament feel meaningful?

Head to the comment section below to let us know your thoughts!

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Derrick Rose Rule

Derrick Rose‘s name doesn’t technically show up at all in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, like Gilbert Arenas, the veteran NBA guard has become an informal namesake of one of the CBA’s rules.

The Rose rule allows a player who is finishing his rookie scale contract to sign a maximum-salary contract that exceeds the typical limit for a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience. The rule, which was created after Rose won a Most Valuable Player award while playing on his rookie contract, allows young stars to qualify for a maximum salary worth 30% of the salary cap instead of 25%.

Although we colloquially refer to this rule as the Rose rule, it’s technically known in the CBA as the “higher max criteria” for “fifth year eligible” players, since a player has to meet certain performance benchmarks to qualify for the higher maximum salary in his fifth NBA season. A player becomes eligible for the 30% max entering his fifth season when at least one of the following is true:

  • The player was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the past three seasons.
  • The player was named Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the past three seasons.
  • The player was named Most Valuable Player in any of the past three seasons.

A player signing a rookie scale extension can receive the higher Rose rule max as long as his extension covers at least four new years. A player signing a free agent contract can also be eligible for the Rose rule max if he’s coming off his four-year rookie contract — or if he’s a former second-round pick or undrafted free agent with four years of experience, and he’s re-signing with his current team.

This latter scenario almost never arises, since it’s extremely rare for a player who wasn’t drafted in the first round to develop into an All-NBA player within four years. There are rare scenarios in which it might happen — Nikola Jokic, for instance, was a second-round pick who made the All-NBA team in his fourth season. But he had already signed a second contract by that point, having re-upped with the Nuggets as a restricted free agent following his third season.

Of course, just because a player is eligible for a Rose rule extension, that doesn’t mean a team has to offer a starting salary worth the full 30% max. That’s still a matter of negotiation between the player and team, and a starting salary between 25-30% is possible.

Teams and players who agree to a rookie scale extension can also negotiate conditional maximum starting salaries that hinge on the player’s performance in his fourth season, before his extension begins.

For example, a team and player could agree to the following terms:

  • The player’s starting salary will be worth 25% of the cap if he doesn’t make an All-NBA Team in his fourth season.
  • The player’s starting salary will be worth 27% of the cap if he’s named to the All-NBA Third Team.
  • The player’s starting salary will be worth 28% of the cap if he’s named to the All-NBA Second Team.
  • The player’s starting salary will be worth 30% of the cap if he’s named to the All-NBA First Team.

Several players have agreed to this form of Rose rule extension since the rule was implemented in 2017. Devin Booker, Ben Simmons, and Pascal Siakam were among the players whose starting salaries on their rookie scale contracts could have ranged from between 27-30% depending on which All-NBA team they made.

Siakam was voted to the All-NBA Second Team the spring before his rookie scale extension went into effect, securing a starting salary worth 28% of the cap, based on the terms of his Rose rule deal. Simmons’ contract also began at 28% of the cap after he made an All-NBA Third Team that same year. Booker missed out on All-NBA honors ahead of his fourth season, however, so he received a standard 25% max deal.

In recent years, the significant majority of rookie scale extensions that include Rose rule language have been more of a yes or no proposition — a player qualifies for the 30% max with an All-NBA spot, regardless of which team he makes.

That’s reportedly the case for Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, and LaMelo Ball, who signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions this past offseason and would receive a bump to the 30% max by making an All-NBA team in 2024.

While a player can, in some cases, meet the Rose rule performance criteria after he signs his contract, he must meet the criteria before the contract begins. So if Edwards were to miss out on an All-NBA spot in 2024, then earned one in 2025, it would be too late for him to qualify for a Rose rule deal — his maximum-salary contract would start at 25% of the cap in 2024/25 and increase by 8% annually from there.

It’s worth noting that NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement also included the “designated rookie” rule, which was separate from the Rose rule but often applied to Rose rule deals. The designated rookie rule allowed teams to sign players to rookie scale extensions that spanned five new years instead of four. Teams weren’t permitted to carry more than two designated rookies at a time, including no more than one who was acquired via trade.

However, the latest CBA eliminated the designated rookie rule, allowing all rookie scale extensions to cover up to five new years and placing no restrictions on how many of those players those teams are permitted to carry or acquire. The Rose rule is now the only one governing deviations from the norm for rookie scale extensions.

Finally, a player with between seven and nine years of experience can qualify for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap instead of 30% by meeting similar criteria, but that’s related to the designated veteran rule rather than the Rose rule. We cover that subject in a separate glossary entry.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier variations of this post were published in 2013 and 2018 by Chuck Myron and Luke Adams.

Community Shootaround: NBA Coaches On Hot Seat?

It’s rare for an NBA team to make a head coaching change this early in the season, but it’s not unheard of. Just last fall, for instance, the Nets parted ways with Steve Nash only seven games into the regular season. The league’s reigning Coach of the Year, Mike Brown, was once let go by the Lakers a mere five games into a season.

That doesn’t mean that we should expect a head coaching change in the coming days or weeks, but it’s extremely rare to get through an entire NBA season without at least some overhaul in the coaching ranks. So it’s likely just a matter of time until at least one team decides to pull the trigger and make a change.

The NBA’s longest-tenured head coaches – such as Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra, and Steve Kerr – won’t be fired, and it’s probably safe to assume that all the coaches who have been hired within the last year are safe as well, barring some unexpected non-basketball development. Eliminating those two groups significantly reduces our list of coaches who might be on the hot seat.

From there, we can cross off several more coaches whose teams are off to strong starts this season. That group includes guys like Chris Finch, Mark Daigneault, Jason Kidd, and Jamahl Mosley, among several others. And we can eliminate at least a couple more coaches whose clubs have given them strong votes of confidence as of late — for instance, the Clippers refused to let interested teams talk to Tyronn Lue this past offseason.

Who does that leave? Well, let’s start with Billy Donovan. He was named by at least one sportsbook in the preseason as the head coach most likely to be fired first, and the Bulls‘ performance so far this season hasn’t done much to quiet those rumors. Zach LaVine and other Chicago players have been the subject of trade rumors, but when a team is underachieving, it’s often the coach who is replaced before the players are.

J.B. Bickerstaff‘s Cavaliers and Willie Green‘s Pelicans have been up and down to start the season, but both teams have been hit hard by injuries and have still held their own in the playoff race. Their seats might start getting hotter if they don’t make any sort of postseason run this spring, but for now, they should be fine. Nets coach Jacque Vaughn falls into this category too, with expectations in Brooklyn a little lower than they are in Cleveland or New Orleans.

Chauncey Billups, Will Hardy, and Wes Unseld Jr. are among the coaches whose teams already look like strong bets to end up in the lottery, but those clubs weren’t expected to make the playoffs this season anyway, so their management groups likely won’t be in any hurry to make changes. Unseld is the lone potential exception since he was hired by a previous front office regime, but a recent report suggested his job isn’t in any immediate danger.

Taylor Jenkins and Steve Clifford are perhaps worth keeping a closer eye on, since the Grizzlies and Hornets have won a combined seven games so far this season despite entering the season with playoff aspirations. But those are two more teams who have been significantly impacted by player absences and who probably can’t be realistically judged until their groups are more whole.

Jenkins, in particular, has several strong seasons under his belt and was expected to ultimately be judged on his team’s playoff success. If Memphis’ roster is too depleted to even make the postseason, it’ll probably be hard to put that on Jenkins.

For now, then, Donovan may be the only head coach whose seat looks truly hot, though there are certainly other coaches who could join him if their teams experienced prolonged slumps.

What do you think? Is Donovan the coach whose job is in the most jeopardy in the short term? Are there others you think could be replaced before season’s end?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Projections For 2024/25

The mid-level exception and bi-annual exception are the two key tools that an over-the-cap team typically has at its disposal to sign free agents from other clubs — or to re-sign one of its own free agents, if the player’s Bird rights aren’t available or sufficient.

The year-to-year value of mid-level and bi-annual exceptions – along with several other cap-related figures and exceptions – is dependent on the movement of the salary cap. If the cap increases by 5% from one league year to the next, the exceptions increase by the same rate.

As such, we don’t know yet exactly what those exceptions will be worth in 2024/25, but we can make an educated estimate. The NBA’s most recent projection for ’24/25 called for a cap of $141,000,000, which is the number we’ll use to project next season’s mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

[RELATED: Maximum Salary Projections For 2024/25]

[RELATED: Minimum Salary Projections For 2024/25]

Based on a $141,000,000 cap, here’s what the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would look like in 2024/25:


Mid-Level Exception

Year Standard MLE
Taxpayer MLE Room MLE
2024/25 $12,859,000 $5,183,000 $8,006,000
2025/26 $13,501,950 $5,442,150 $8,406,300
2026/27 $14,144,900 $8,806,600
2027/28 $14,787,850
Total $55,293,700 $10,625,150 $25,218,900

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and whose team salary remains below the first tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the standard/non-taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the first tax apron for the rest of the league year.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Mid-Level Exception]

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for a team whose salary is between the first and second tax aprons, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the first apron later. It can run for up to two years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the second tax apron for the rest of the league year.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to three years with 5% annual raises.

Beginning in the 2024 offseason, teams will be able to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or the room exception – but not the taxpayer MLE – to acquire a player via trade.

If the cap increases by the maximum amount of 10%, as it has in each of the past two seasons, the non-taxpayer mid-level would start at around $13.65MM, the taxpayer MLE would be worth $5.5MM, and the room exception would be worth approximately $8.5MM.


Bi-Annual Exception

Year BAE Value
2024/25 $4,681,000
2025/26 $4,915,050
Total $9,596,050

The bi-annual exception – which can be used for contracts up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one – is only available to teams that are over the cap and below the first tax apron.

It can also only be used once every two years, which will disqualify the Cavaliers, Lakers, and Raptors from using it in 2024/25 — Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Toronto are the only teams to use their BAEs in 2023/24.

A maximum 10% cap increase would result in a bi-annual exception that starts at about $4.97MM in ’24/25.

Community Shootaround: Early Season Surprises

For the most part, it’s easy to tell who the NBA’s contenders and bottom-feeders are before the season. Similarly, fans can usually predict what a large part of a team’s given rotation is going to look like. But every year, there are several instances of unexpected players and teams breaking out or disappointing.

This season is no different and, through the first portion of the season, there are already some surprising trends and storylines.

In my view, the most disappointing start to the season for any team has to be the Grizzlies. Teams like the Pistons, Wizards, Spurs and Trail Blazers were expected to trend toward the bottom of the standings with young cores and growing pains. But the Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference last year and acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. Of course, Memphis has been dealt an incredibly difficult hand with the 25-game suspension of Ja Morant and injuries to Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Smart, along with many more, and any team would be hard-pressed to overcome that.

Seasons are all about hot and cold streaks, and both the Clippers and Warriors are going through slumps after respective strong starts to the year. The Clippers began the year 3-1 and have gone 1-6 since acquiring James Harden, including losing six straight. The Warriors began the year 6-2 but have now also lost six in a row. I didn’t anticipate there to be as many growing pains with the Clippers and Harden from the jump, but I still expect they’ll get into form.

Not all surprises are bad though, and there have been plenty of pleasant ones to begin this year. The Timberwolves share the top spot in the west with the defending-champion Nuggets, which is eye-popping at first until you consider their elite defensive play and Anthony Edwards‘ unsurprising breakout.

The Rockets and Thunder look well ahead of the development curve, and hold two of the top six spots in the west. Chet Holmgren immediately looks like a star in his first NBA season for Oklahoma City while the Rockets have been aided by the additions of their veteran players and coach Ime Udoka.

For my money, the most surprising early season development is Dereck Lively IIs immediate importance to the 9-4 Mavericks. In his one season at Duke, Lively averaged just 20.6 minutes per game, though his role grew exponentially as the year went on. Still, when Dallas drafted him, I expected the franchise to bring him along slowly and allow him to get adjusted to the NBA.

Instead, Lively surged to the top of the depth chart, taking a choke-hold on the starting center position at just 19 years old. He’s averaging 8.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 stocks (steals plus blocks) in his first 12 games. His rise to the top has opened up so many things for the Mavs’ offense and Lively is a huge part of what looks like a top dog in the conference.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What early season trends have most surprised you the most? Do you agree with any of our choices? What players and teams have most exceeded or fallen short of expectations?

Take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to reading your input.