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Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/24/18 – 3/3/18

March 3rd, 2018 at 1:30pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the writing team here at Hoops Rumors’ creates original content to complement the news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Tanking The Process: Views From The 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

March 2nd, 2018 at 10:23pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Tanking remains a major topic of debate in the NBA and it was one of several issues that dominated this year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The split between those who believe in the strategy and those who loathe it was apparent at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center last weekend.

Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie headlined a panel conveniently named: Trust the Process? Team Building And Rebuilding In The NBA. While the audience appeared to be a pro-Hinkie crowd, the father of The Process clearly was ready to face some criticism up on the stage.Trust the Process - Julia Zhogina

“If we run out of things to talk about, I’ll just lay on the stage and everyone can just kick me in the ribs,” Hinkie said to begin the panel.

Hinkie didn’t face too much scrutiny during the high-energy event, though Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca made it clear he wasn’t a fan of the former GM’s previous strategy.

“I actually don’t think statistically that the process, as it’s defined to me, actually works,” Pagliuca said. “Because there just [aren’t] enough good odds to get the great player, so if you really bottom out, first of all, you have to get the pick. You have to win the lottery. Second of all, there has to be a great draft where there is a LeBron. Most drafts, the ninth player in one draft is as good as the best player in the next draft. So when you do all the odds, surely going in that direction, to me, is a bad strategy.”

There seems to be optimism around the league that teams can find franchise players in the draft even if their picks don’t fall near the top of the lottery, something I referred to during my appearance on NBAMath’s Hardwood Knocks podcast.

Clippers executive Lawrence Frank touched upon this belief when talking about the Blake Griffin trade. The deal netted Los Angeles a lightly-protected first-round pick from the Pistons, which is currently slotted as the 12th selection, as our Reverse Standings show.

“Steve Nash sat on this panel. What number was he picked? 15th. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15th. Kawhi Leonard: 15th. You have to be able to nail [the pick]. Donovan Mitchell: 13th,” Frank said.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey can understand why some top talent falls in the draft. “As a league, we are getting worse at drafting,” Morey said during his conversation with President Barack Obama.

Still, acquiring top talent with middling picks means that front offices must sometimes get lucky. Franchises picking far from the top must identify the talent and hope that the teams ahead of them in the draft fail to do so. That’s why tanking remains an active strategy in the NBA.

The league is keeping an eye out for this strategy, promising to take action against teams that abuse the system.

“If we ever received evidence that players or coaches were attempting to lose or otherwise taking steps to cause any game to result otherwise than on its competitive merits, that conduct would be met with the swiftest and harshest response possible from the league office,” commissioner Adam Silver recently said in a memo to all 30 teams.

In an attempt to dissuade tanking, the NBA has revamped its lottery format. Starting in 2019, the odds from top-to-bottom will be altered, with the odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick reducing more gradually from 1-to-14 than in the previous format.

This is all happening while Philadelphia’s maligned plan seems to be working. The Sixers, fresh off of a statement win over the Cavs, appear to be heading to the playoffs for the first time since the 2011/12 campaign. The franchise has two of the league’s brightest young stars and the flexibility to add additional talent without making huge sacrifices. They have a case to present to LeBron James that would, at a minimum, make him think about a relocation to the City of Brotherly Love, though he recently shut down the rumors of him looking to move his family to Pennsylvania.

Regardless of opinion, The Process may be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. With the change in lottery format, the distaste for tanking among many owners, and the surreal optimism surrounding a wide-range of draft picks, it appears the league may never see another multi-year, Hinkie-esque strategy — despite the appearance of a proof of concept.

Photo courtesy of MIT’s Andrew Geraghty

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Michael Beasley’s Journey Sets Him Up For The Future

March 2nd, 2018 at 9:56pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Michael Beasley hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a No. 2 overall pick, but it looks like he’s finally found a way to translate his talent to the NBA. He’s found success with the Knicks this season and one league executive isn’t surprised that Beasley turned it around.

“You could see a difference in him once he got back from China,” the executive told Hoops Rumors. “He’s putting it all together.”

Being in a place where it’s difficult to communicate with most people due to a language barrier can direct one’s focus on themselves, and it appears that’s what happened with Beasley. “The talent was always there and experiences like [the China stints] can bring the change needed to progress,” the executive added.

The Kansas State standout spent two seasons abroad and his offense shined. He won the Chinese Basketball Association’s All-Star MVP in each campaign.

Beasley signed a one-year deal with New York over the summer and his play in the Big Apple shows he can make an impact in the league. He’s averaging 21.6 points per 36 minutes and shooting 40.7% from behind the arc this season, though when he becomes a free agent this summer, he’s going to prioritize more than just offensive opportunity.

“[I’m] not satisfied. Like I can score, but that’s not like my main focus. Like I want the opportunity. I want someone, a coach, an organization to believe in me to the point where I can win games,” Beasley recently told Chris Haynes of ESPN.com.

The 29-year-old credits his international experience for his new way of thinking on the court.

“My thing is I don’t want to just score, I want to make players better. And I didn’t even know that about myself until I went to China the first time,” Beasley said. “It became fun to see my teammates’ reaction to things that they didn’t even think that they could do. You know? And to me, that’s like the fun of it. When we all playing the right way, when we all making the right pass.”

“You know, and I’ve always wanted to be the guy, like the KD, the LeBron type to bring that aura and that atmosphere and those type of wins to the city. You know, so I’m still at a place to where I’m hungry.”

Beasley, who has been a fantasy darling, as I mentioned in a previous edition of Fantasy Hoops, will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after making slightly over $1.47MM this season in New York. With the strides he has made, the former No. 2 pick could be looking at much more lucrative offers once the new league year begins, though that’s just my speculation.

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2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Indiana Pacers

March 2nd, 2018 at 5:55pm CST by Austin Kent

The Pacers are in an enviable position mere months after it seemed like they were doomed to a long and challenging rebuild. The breakout seasons enjoyed by Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis have helped distract from the absence of Paul George while the all-around contributions of an unheralded, cohesive veteran lineup has put Indiana firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The Pacers didn’t make a major splash at the trade deadline and were even asked specifically by players to avoid tinkering with the chemistry in the locker room. While it’s hard to argue that the franchise made the wrong call standing pat with a roster that’s punched above its weight on a nightly basis, the Pacers have a long road ahead of them before they’re considered serious challengers, even in the East.

It’s refreshing to see a team build anew without bottoming out. Solid drafting and some responsible payroll management will help them climb to the next rung on the ladder.Cory Joseph vertical

Cory Joseph, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $29.9MM contract in 2017
Joseph has thrived as the younger half of a point guard tandem charged with the task of helping the Pacers play a faster style of basketball. While he’s ceded the majority of the starts so far this season to Darren Collison, Joseph is a solid rotation piece and possible future starter. It’s likely we’ve already caught a glimpse of his ceiling, so the former Raptors probably won’t draw major money on the open market. That being said, it’s hard to imagine he couldn’t procure a raise if he turns down his 2018/19 player option worth just less than $8MM.

Glenn Robinson III, SF, 24 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM contract in 2015
After breaking into Indy’s rotation in 2016/17, an ankle injury put Robinson III’s latest campaign on hold until after the All-Star Game. The Pacers may see some upside in the former second-round pick, and likely won’t have to outbid many competitors to retain his services should they wish to do so. Assuming the swingman’s health holds up in the final stretch of 2017/18, expect the club to lock him in for at least a few more seasons at an affordable rate. At this stage in the game, the Pacers can justify the low-risk, medium-reward lottery ticket.

Lance Stephenson, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $12.6MM deal in 2017
While Stephenson’s career took a turn for the worse after he flew the coop in 2014, his return to Indiana has helped restore his value as a professional basketball player. The 27-year-old may not be the irreplaceable triple-double machine the Hornets hoped he would be when they poached him from Indiana four years ago, but he’s a solid rotation piece whose contributions to the Pacers franchise are both mysterious and intangible. Expect the club to bring their enigmatic swingman back on his dirt-cheap $4.4MM team option.

Joe Young, PG, 26 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $5.1MM deal in 2015
The Pacers have never seemed particularly intent on working Young into their rotation. While you could argue that a consistently competitive squad like Indiana may be inherently reluctant to throw big minutes at an inexperienced point guard, he only topped the 20-minute plateau four times during his first two years in the league. The 25-year-old has seen an uptick in usage since Collison went down with a knee injury in early February, but the club may be better off turning down his team option and seeing what else they could do with the roster spot.

Thaddeus Young, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $53.9MM deal in 2015
Young has established himself as a critical component of this Pacers team and fills the role of do-everything veteran forward admirably. While the almost-30-year-old’s services would be welcomed by several other contending teams, it’s hard to imagine Young’s camp being all that confident they’d land more than $13.8MM in a bear market. If Indiana was knee deep in the turbulent rebuild many expected, it would make sense for Young to take that chance, but given that the opposite is true, I anticipate him accepting the 2018/19 player option and returning as a leader on and off the court.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Western Playoff Race

March 2nd, 2018 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

While it remains to be seen whether the Rockets or Warriors will finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, there’s no risk of either team falling below No. 2. Houston currently has a half-game lead on the second-place Warriors and a 12-game lead on the third-place Timberwolves.

After the top two teams in the West though, things get very interesting. As of today, there are seven Western teams separated by just two games in the loss column, with the 10th-seeded Jazz hanging around the race too. Here’s a current snapshot of the standings in the West:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (38-27)
  2. Portland Trail Blazers (36-26)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (36-26)
  4. New Orleans Pelicans (35-26)
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (36-27)
  6. Denver Nuggets (33-28)
  7. Los Angeles Clippers (32-28)
  8. Utah Jazz (31-30)

Several of these teams have lost key players via injury or trade this season. The Timberwolves are currently without Jimmy Butler; Kawhi Leonard has barely played for the Spurs; DeMarcus Cousins is out for the season for the Pelicans; the Thunder will be without Andre Roberson for the season; the Nuggets and Jazz have lost Paul Millsap and Rudy Gobert for big chunks of the season, though both are playing now; and, of course, the Clippers traded Blake Griffin before last month’s deadline.

Of the eight teams vying for the final six playoff spots in the West, only the Spurs (3-7) have a losing record in their last 10 games, with the Trail Blazers (five straight wins) and Pelicans (seven straight wins) among the hottest teams in the group. Still, things could change quickly. Two or three losses in a row could send a team sliding down the standings in the West.

These teams have between 17 and 22 games left in the regular season, so we’re entering the home stretch, and there will be a key matchup worth watching nearly every day. The next two nights, for instance, will pit the Timberwolves vs. the Jazz and the Thunder vs. the Trail Blazers.

What’s your take on the Western Conference playoff race? Which two teams will miss the postseason? Which two teams will gain home-court advantage by nabbing the third and fourth seeds? Which first-round matchups would you most like to see?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Recap Of February NBA Buyouts

March 2nd, 2018 at 9:59am CST by Luke Adams

Over the last month, several teams headed for the lottery have bought out and/or waived veteran players, allowing them to seek out new opportunities with playoff-bound clubs. Some of those players gave up some money to incentivize the arrangement for their old teams, while others were simply released outright.

Listed below is our round-up of the players who were bought out and/or waived, along with several players who were candidates to receive buyouts but ultimately stayed put.

While it’s still technically possible that players from that second group could be cut, they’ll no longer be playoff-eligible if they’re released now and sign with a new team down the stretch.

Veteran players who were bought out or released in February or on March 1 (chronological order):

Buyout candidates who remained with their current teams (alphabetical order):

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Postseason Eligibility And Two-Way Players

March 1st, 2018 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

As we’ve noted in several stories leading up to today, March 1 is the last day that a player can be waived and retain his playoff eligibility for a new club. Any player released after Thursday night at 11:59pm ET can still sign with another NBA team once he clears waivers, but he wouldn’t be able to participate in the postseason with his new club.

While these rules are fairly clear for players on standard NBA contracts, how exactly do they affect players on two-way contracts? Let’s take a closer look…

Players on two-way contracts aren’t eligible for the postseason.

We’ll start with the simplest rule — a player on a two-way contract can’t play for his team in the postseason, even if he hasn’t used up his full allotment of 45 NBA days. A two-way player can travel and practice with the team during the playoffs, but has to remain on the inactive list during games.

Two-way players waived after March 1 aren’t eligible to play in the postseason for a new team.

The same waiver rules that apply to players on standard NBA contracts apply to players on two-way deals when it comes to playoff eligibility. If a player on a two-way contract isn’t waived by the end of the day today, he won’t be eligible to join another team for the postseason.

While these first two rules significantly restrict the ability of two-way players to participate in the playoffs, it’s still possible for a player who is on a two-way contract through Thursday to play in the postseason.

A player on a two-way contract who has his contract turned into a standard NBA deal by his current team any time up until the last day of the regular season can play in the postseason for that team.

Clippers guard Tyrone Wallace is only on a two-way contract, but he has been a key contributor to the team’s recent success — L.A. is 8-4 in games Wallace has started.

If the Clips want to ensure they’ll have the rookie available in the event they earn a playoff spot, they can convert Wallace’s two-way deal into a standard NBA contract anytime between now and the end of the regular season — it doesn’t need to be done today. Assuming he remains on his two-way deal through today though, he wouldn’t be eligible to play in the postseason for any team besides the Clippers.

Of course, the Clippers would need to have room on their 15-man roster to convert Wallace’s contract, but right now that wouldn’t be a problem, since they’re carrying just 14 players on standard NBA deals.

[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Roster Counts]

While these eligibility rules for two-way players shouldn’t create problems for most of the league’s 30 teams, there are at least a handful of clubs that will have decisions to make before season’s end. In order to make a player on a two-way contract available for the postseason, a team will have to convert that player to a standard NBA deal by April 11.

For more information on how two-way contracts work, be sure to check out our full glossary entry.

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Update On Open NBA Roster Spots

February 28th, 2018 at 12:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier this month, we identified the NBA teams with open roster spots. Since then, clubs have completed a flurry of 10-day signings, and a couple players have even received rest-of-season deals.

However, there are still plenty of teams around the league with openings on their respective rosters, which could come in handy with Thursday’s de facto buyout deadline around the corner. Once March 1 comes and goes, teams will have a better idea of which players will or won’t have postseason eligibility the rest of the way, creating a clearer picture for how to fill those open roster spots.

In the space below, we’ll take a closer look at teams with an open roster spot, breaking them down into three categories. Each of the clubs in the first group actually has a full 15-man roster right now, but in each instance, one of those 15 players is only a 10-day contract. With those contracts set to expire soon, it’d be very easy and inexpensive for these teams to create an opening if they need to.

Teams with full 15-man rosters who are carrying at least one player on a 10-day contract (10-day player noted in parentheses):

The next list of teams includes the clubs with one open spot on their roster and no players on 10-day contracts. These clubs each have 14 players on standard, full-season NBA deals, leaving one spot open for either a 10-day player or a rest-of-season signing.

Teams with one open roster spot:

  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
    • Note: The Lakers will create a second opening when they officially waive Corey Brewer.
  • Memphis Grizzlies
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Sacramento Kings
  • Toronto Raptors

Finally, the last group of teams features four clubs that have been grouped together before. These four teams saw their roster counts slip to 13 players around the time of the trade deadline, and each had to add a player to get back up to the NBA-mandated minimum of 14. To reach that minimum, each team signed a player to a 10-day contract. That means these four franchises still only have 12 or 13 players on full-season contracts, with at least one player on a 10-day deal.

Teams with one open roster spot, plus at least one player on a 10-day contract:

  • Atlanta Hawks
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Portland Trail Blazers
    • Note: 13 full-season contracts, plus Brandon Rush on 10-day contract.
  • Washington Wizards
    • Note: 13 full-season contracts, plus Ramon Sessions on 10-day contract.

For roster-count details on all 30 teams, be sure to check out our roster count page, which we updated daily throughout the 2017/18 season.

Note: Roster info current as of Wednesday, February 28 at 12:00pm CT.

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Community Shootaround: Draft Lottery, Tanking

February 27th, 2018 at 11:16am CST by Luke Adams

NBA scouts expect the 2018 draft class to feature about five to seven elite prospects, and ’18 will also be the last year that the NBA’s current lottery format will be in effect. As a result, we could be subjected to one of the most widespread late-season tanking efforts in league history, multiple league executives tell Tim MacMahon and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

While most of the teams vying for lottery positioning at the bottom of the NBA standings won’t publicly acknowledge they’d prefer to lose, prioritizing the development of young players is one obvious way to tank in a politically correct manner. Resting veterans and being extra-cautious with minor injuries are other passive tanking strategies.

According to MacMahon and Windhorst, executives around the NBA also believe some teams are engaging in a more “active” form of tanking, which involves “reverse analytics.” Rather than relying on data to determine optimal lineups for winning games, teams may be doing just the opposite, providing coaches with lineups that would perform poorly in certain matchups.

In any form, tanking is a bad look for the NBA, and the fact that so many teams have begun doing so in earnest this early in the 2017/18 season is worrisome.

It’s possible that the minor tweaks the league made to the lottery system will help matters — starting in 2019, the top four spots in the draft will be up for grabs in the lottery, rather than just the top three, and the very worst teams will have a reduced chance of landing one of those top picks.

For instance, under the current format, the worst club in the NBA has a 25% chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 64% chance to get a top-three pick. That team also won’t fall further than No. 4. In the new system, that same team would have a 14% chance at No. 1, a 40% chance at a top-three pick, and could fall all the way to No. 5.

The new system may discourage tanking to some extent, but Moke Hamilton of Basketball Insiders believes that modest lottery reform of that nature isn’t enough — the league needs to overhaul the lottery system entirely, Hamilton argues.

What do you think? What can the NBA do to discourage the widespread tanking efforts we’re seeing in 2017/18? Will the new format solve the problem, or is it merely a band-aid solution for an issue that requires a more significant overhaul?

Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Community Shootaround: Buyout Candidates

February 26th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

As we noted earlier this afternoon, we could see a second wave of buyouts completed across the NBA this week, with a March 1 deadline looming. Players waived after Thursday won’t be playoff-eligible if they sign with another NBA team before the end of the season.

In our earlier story, we identified Jarrett Jack, Arron Afflalo, Shabazz Muhammad, Trevor Booker, and Joakim Noah as buyout candidates, but they’re not the only ones out there. Corey Brewer, Vince Carter, Brook Lopez, and Nerlens Noel are among the veterans on expiring contracts who may not fit into their respective teams’ future plans.

Players on expiring contracts make the strongest buyout candidates, since it’s much easier for a non-playoff team to eat some or all of a salary that doesn’t extend into 2018/19. A multiyear contract complicates matters — teams are sometimes willing to turn future cap hits into dead money by cutting a player with a long-term salary, but most clubs would prefer to wait to see if that player can eventually be traded.

As such, we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see veterans like Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley, Zach Randolph, Garrett Temple, or Justin Holiday released this week. Even though they may see their roles reduced in the final weeks of the 2017/18 season, ceding minutes to younger players, they’re all under contract through next year, so there’s no urgency for their teams to part ways with them yet.

With Ersan Ilyasova‘s release today kicking off this potential second wave of buyouts, we want to hear your thoughts on which players should follow Ilyasova to the free agent market. Which players should be pushing the hardest for buyouts, and which teams should be most willing to accommodate them? Which playoff teams do you think could use a specific player or two to provide a boost to their roster down the stretch?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in!

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