Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Potential Coaching Changes

March 6th, 2018 at 2:51pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s head coaching carousel was unusually quiet last spring, when all 30 teams stuck with their incumbent coaches at the end of the 2016/17 season. That won’t be the case this year, however.

Already, three teams have made in-season coaching changes, and the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks are each expected to conduct a more expansive search for a permanent head coach at season’s end. Those three clubs are unlikely to be the only ones in the market for someone new.

Although there have been no reports confirming that the Knicks will replace Jeff Hornacek this offseason, it has been a subject of frequent speculation for New York writers, with multiple reporters suggesting that Hornacek’s time with the Knicks may be nearing an end.

Like Hornacek’s Knicks, the Nuggets and Pistons are in danger of missing the postseason this year, which wouldn’t bode well for the job security of either Michael Malone or Stan Van Gundy — based on the current standings and their respective track records, Malone is probably safer than Van Gundy for now. Doc Rivers‘ Clippers are also battling for a postseason spot and could miss out. If that happens, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Rivers follow Chris Paul and Blake Griffin out of town.

Among probable lottery-bound teams, Frank Vogel (Magic), Dave Joerger (Kings), Fred Hoiberg (Bulls), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), and Luke Walton (Lakers) aren’t 100% locks to return, though most of them should — particularly since a few of those clubs weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this season anyway.

While most coaches for playoff teams should be safe, the actual results of the postseason could change the equation. For instance, if the Cavaliers are upset in the first round, that would almost certainly kick off a debate about Tyronn Lue‘s job status.

What do you think? Which head coaches will be replaced this season? Which coaches should be replaced? And which candidates for head coaching jobs do you think should be most coveted this spring when teams are making new hires?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Early Maximum Salary Projections For 2018/19

March 6th, 2018 at 12:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the maximum salary a player can earn is limited by a series of criteria that includes his years of NBA experience.

A player with no more than six years of NBA experience who is a free agent this offseason will be able to sign a deal starting at 25% of the salary cap; a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience can have a starting salary of up to 30% of the cap; and a player with 10 or more years of experience can sign a contract starting at up to 35% of the cap.

There are a few exceptions to these rules. A player can sometimes jump into a higher maximum-salary group based on his career achievements. For instance, due to his track record of All-NBA nods, Kawhi Leonard will be eligible this offseason for a Designated Veteran Extension worth 35% of the cap, despite only having seven NBA seasons under his belt.

Additionally, the maximum salary a specific player is eligible for can sometimes exceed the league-wide limit. This is rare, but it may be the case for LeBron James this summer, since his $35,607,968 player option is higher than the projected league-wide max of $35,350,000. This can happen when a player’s annual raises (up to 8%) exceed the annual growth of the salary cap.

We go into much more detail on the rules surrounding maximum salaries in our glossary entry, so be sure to check out that article for more info. Today though, we want to focus on the current projections for maximum salaries in the 2018/19 season.

The NBA’s most recent salary cap projection for 2018/19 called for a cap of $101MM. That figure could fluctuate in the coming months, and won’t be set in stone until after the NBA Finals, but for now we’ll assume it ends up being accurate.

Listed below are the maximum contracts that this summer’s free agents could sign based on a $101MM cap. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous team can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with a new team.

As noted above, a player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. In the charts below, the “6 years or less” column details the maximum projected contracts for players like Aaron Gordon and Clint Capela; the “7-9 years” column applies to free agents like Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins; and the “10+ years” column applies to vets like Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan.

Here are the current maximum salary projections for 2018/19:

A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2018/19 $25,250,000 $30,300,000 $35,350,000
2019/20 $27,270,000 $32,724,000 $38,178,000
2020/21 $29,290,000 $35,148,000 $41,006,000
2021/22 $31,310,000 $37,572,000 $43,834,000
2022/23 $33,330,000 $39,996,000 $46,662,000
Total $146,450,000 $175,740,000 $205,030,000

A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2018/19 $25,250,000 $30,300,000 $35,350,000
2019/20 $26,512,500 $31,815,000 $37,117,500
2020/21 $27,775,000 $33,330,000 $38,885,000
2021/22 $29,037,500 $34,845,000 $40,652,500
Total $108,575,000 $130,290,000 $152,005,000
Retweet 9 Share 0 Send via email0

Deadline Looming For Disabled Player Exceptions

March 6th, 2018 at 10:01am CST by Luke Adams

Teams that still have disabled player exceptions at their disposal for the 2017/18 season have less than a week to make use of those exceptions. Typically, disabled player exceptions must be used by March 10 of a given league year, but since that date falls on a Saturday this year, the deadline is extended until Monday, March 12. If a team doesn’t use its DPE by that date, it will expire.

As we detailed earlier this season in a glossary entry, a disabled player exception can be granted by the NBA when a team has a player go down with an injury deemed to be season-ending. The exception gives the club some extra cap flexibility to add an injury replacement by signing a player to a one-year contract, trading for a player in the final year of his contract, or placing a waiver claim on a player in the final year of his contract.

The deadline for teams to apply for a disabled player exception was January 15. Seven clubs received DPEs this season, with three of those clubs having used them already. Here’s that list:

That leaves just four teams that still have their disabled player exceptions. These four clubs will see their DPEs disappear if they’re not used by March 12:

While it’s still possible that one or two of these teams will use their disabled player exceptions, those exceptions are less useful at this point in the season. The trade deadline has passed, ruling out the possibility of using the DPE in a trade. And any player placed on waivers at this point wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason, limiting the appeal of using the DPE for a waiver claim.

That leaves free agents, and there simply aren’t there many unsigned players out there who would be worth more than the minimum salary. Veterans like Derrick Rose and Tony Allen remain available, but they started the season on minimum salary deals before being waived, so it’s not as if they’d warrant more lucrative contracts now.

Ultimately, it seems likely that the remaining four disabled player exceptions will expire without being used, but we’ll keep an eye on them through next Monday, just in case.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

Fantasy Hoops: Triple-Doubles, Portis, Hezonja

March 5th, 2018 at 9:59pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Anthony Davis was named February’s Western Conference Player of the Month, and he deserves it after averaging an NBA-high 35.0 points per game to go along with 13.0 rebounds (third in the league), 2.5 steals (second), and 2.2 blocks (second among players with at least 10 games).

Many thought the Pelicans would fall in the standings after DeMarcus Cousins went down, but Davis willed them to eight wins in the month and they’re in position to claim homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Davis is almost certainly going to end up on nearly every MVP ballot and he’s the top fantasy basketball player going forward.

LeBron James won the Player of the Month award for the Eastern Conference after he averaged a triple-double during the short month. He’s not the only player to average a triple-double this month, as Russell Westbrook also accomplished the feat. Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic came within one assist per game short of averaging a triple-double himself.

Westbrook is the only player to average a triple-double during a month this season prior to LBJ making the list. The UCLA product averaged one during the month of December and had it not been for his 9.9 rebounds per contest during the month of October, he would have accomplished it earlier in the year as well.

Here are a few more notes, along with additional analysis, to help you take care of the competition in fantasy hoops:

  • The Bulls have faith in Bobby Portis – who may be in line for an offseason extension, and you should too. Portis ranked among the top 20 in the league in usage percentage during the month of February and the Bulls inserted him into the starting lineup on Monday against the Celtics after he showcased his talent off the bench for most of the season. In the 12 games entering Monday’s contest, Portis scored 16.3 points per game on 14.3 shots from the field. During that stretch, he added 7.6 rebounds and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Double-check your waiver wire to make sure the former No. 22 overall pick isn’t still available.
  • J.J. Barea quietly had the sixth-most assists during the month of February. The Mavericks guard has cooled off a bit since the calendar turned, but he remains a nice fantasy asset.
  • Magic forward Mario Hezonja seems to be coming back down to earth, though he remains a useful streaming option. Consistency will be an issue, but Hezonja should be able to chip in several categories for those who continue to toss him into the lineup.
  • All teams play three or four games this week except for Minnesota. The Timberwolves only have two contests.
Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Weekly Mailbag: 2/26/18 – 3/4/18

March 4th, 2018 at 7:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think the Pelicans will make Anthony Davis available this offseason if they aren’t able to re-sign DeMarcus Cousins? Could the Celtics be a fit for both Davis and Kawhi Leonard? Would it work with the current salary cap? — Patrick Nyen

The cap isn’t the issue, as both players would have to be traded and salaries would have to be matched. The Celtics have no way to meet that requirement without giving up two of their three most expensive players: Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Kyrie Irving. Even if Boston was willing to part with them, the Pelicans won’t let go of Davis, no matter what happens with Cousins or anyone else on the roster. He has become a legitimate MVP candidate while keeping New Orleans alive in the playoff race. The more intriguing case is Leonard, who is eligible for a super max extension this summer and can opt out after next season. We don’t know how much of the rumored behind-the-scenes feud is true, but the Spurs are facing a difficult decision on a star player who has only been on the court for nine games this season. If they can’t work out an extension, San Antonio will start to look at trades and the Celtics will surely make an offer.

I propose that the draft lottery order should be set based on team records two days prior to the trading deadline. What are the arguments against this? It seems like a win-win. It would not put an end to full-season tanking a la “the Process,” but it would end late-season tanking, which is a far more widespread problem. — Mike Loroz
Commissioner Adam Silver has been very vocal about his opposition to tanking, so a proposal similar to yours is possible. The idea of a tournament involving lottery teams has also been suggested with the final playoff spot as a prize. Either move would represent a radical change from the way things have been done for decades, which is enough to spark opposition from at least a few of the owners. Some in smaller markets also like the comfort that tanking offers as a way to rebuild a team around low-cost rookie contracts. No matter what form it takes, it’s clear that change is coming, which will be good for the league. It’s hard to imagine a worse system than what’s in place now, where teams are rewarded for failing but they can’t be obvious about trying to lose or make any public comment on their efforts.
What are the chances Doc Rivers will coach the Knicks next season? — George K., via Twitter
It looks like Jeff Hornacek’s time is about done in New York, where he spent two tumultuous seasons trying to stay above water amid roster turnover, injuries and feuds between the front office and star players. Rivers was popular when he played for the Knicks and would probably be interested in the job if he doesn’t have a future with the Clippers. He has one year left on his contract in L.A. and may be ready to move on if he can’t reach an extension this summer. Rivers has done an exceptional coaching job to keep the injury-riddled Clippers in the playoff race, but he lost power last summer when his front-office responsibilities were taken away, and the organization may be headed toward rebuilding after trading away Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Unless he gets fired, the Knicks would have to send compensation to the Clippers to get their hands on Rivers, but that’s a small price to pay if he’s the coach they want.
Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/24/18 – 3/3/18

March 3rd, 2018 at 1:30pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the writing team here at Hoops Rumors’ creates original content to complement the news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Tanking The Process: Views From The 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

March 2nd, 2018 at 10:23pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Tanking remains a major topic of debate in the NBA and it was one of several issues that dominated this year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The split between those who believe in the strategy and those who loathe it was apparent at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center last weekend.

Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie headlined a panel conveniently named: Trust the Process? Team Building And Rebuilding In The NBA. While the audience appeared to be a pro-Hinkie crowd, the father of The Process clearly was ready to face some criticism up on the stage.Trust the Process - Julia Zhogina

“If we run out of things to talk about, I’ll just lay on the stage and everyone can just kick me in the ribs,” Hinkie said to begin the panel.

Hinkie didn’t face too much scrutiny during the high-energy event, though Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca made it clear he wasn’t a fan of the former GM’s previous strategy.

“I actually don’t think statistically that the process, as it’s defined to me, actually works,” Pagliuca said. “Because there just [aren’t] enough good odds to get the great player, so if you really bottom out, first of all, you have to get the pick. You have to win the lottery. Second of all, there has to be a great draft where there is a LeBron. Most drafts, the ninth player in one draft is as good as the best player in the next draft. So when you do all the odds, surely going in that direction, to me, is a bad strategy.”

There seems to be optimism around the league that teams can find franchise players in the draft even if their picks don’t fall near the top of the lottery, something I referred to during my appearance on NBAMath’s Hardwood Knocks podcast.

Clippers executive Lawrence Frank touched upon this belief when talking about the Blake Griffin trade. The deal netted Los Angeles a lightly-protected first-round pick from the Pistons, which is currently slotted as the 12th selection, as our Reverse Standings show.

“Steve Nash sat on this panel. What number was he picked? 15th. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15th. Kawhi Leonard: 15th. You have to be able to nail [the pick]. Donovan Mitchell: 13th,” Frank said.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey can understand why some top talent falls in the draft. “As a league, we are getting worse at drafting,” Morey said during his conversation with President Barack Obama.

Still, acquiring top talent with middling picks means that front offices must sometimes get lucky. Franchises picking far from the top must identify the talent and hope that the teams ahead of them in the draft fail to do so. That’s why tanking remains an active strategy in the NBA.

The league is keeping an eye out for this strategy, promising to take action against teams that abuse the system.

“If we ever received evidence that players or coaches were attempting to lose or otherwise taking steps to cause any game to result otherwise than on its competitive merits, that conduct would be met with the swiftest and harshest response possible from the league office,” commissioner Adam Silver recently said in a memo to all 30 teams.

In an attempt to dissuade tanking, the NBA has revamped its lottery format. Starting in 2019, the odds from top-to-bottom will be altered, with the odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick reducing more gradually from 1-to-14 than in the previous format.

This is all happening while Philadelphia’s maligned plan seems to be working. The Sixers, fresh off of a statement win over the Cavs, appear to be heading to the playoffs for the first time since the 2011/12 campaign. The franchise has two of the league’s brightest young stars and the flexibility to add additional talent without making huge sacrifices. They have a case to present to LeBron James that would, at a minimum, make him think about a relocation to the City of Brotherly Love, though he recently shut down the rumors of him looking to move his family to Pennsylvania.

Regardless of opinion, The Process may be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. With the change in lottery format, the distaste for tanking among many owners, and the surreal optimism surrounding a wide-range of draft picks, it appears the league may never see another multi-year, Hinkie-esque strategy — despite the appearance of a proof of concept.

Photo courtesy of MIT’s Andrew Geraghty

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

Michael Beasley’s Journey Sets Him Up For The Future

March 2nd, 2018 at 9:56pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Michael Beasley hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a No. 2 overall pick, but it looks like he’s finally found a way to translate his talent to the NBA. He’s found success with the Knicks this season and one league executive isn’t surprised that Beasley turned it around.

“You could see a difference in him once he got back from China,” the executive told Hoops Rumors. “He’s putting it all together.”

Being in a place where it’s difficult to communicate with most people due to a language barrier can direct one’s focus on themselves, and it appears that’s what happened with Beasley. “The talent was always there and experiences like [the China stints] can bring the change needed to progress,” the executive added.

The Kansas State standout spent two seasons abroad and his offense shined. He won the Chinese Basketball Association’s All-Star MVP in each campaign.

Beasley signed a one-year deal with New York over the summer and his play in the Big Apple shows he can make an impact in the league. He’s averaging 21.6 points per 36 minutes and shooting 40.7% from behind the arc this season, though when he becomes a free agent this summer, he’s going to prioritize more than just offensive opportunity.

“[I’m] not satisfied. Like I can score, but that’s not like my main focus. Like I want the opportunity. I want someone, a coach, an organization to believe in me to the point where I can win games,” Beasley recently told Chris Haynes of ESPN.com.

The 29-year-old credits his international experience for his new way of thinking on the court.

“My thing is I don’t want to just score, I want to make players better. And I didn’t even know that about myself until I went to China the first time,” Beasley said. “It became fun to see my teammates’ reaction to things that they didn’t even think that they could do. You know? And to me, that’s like the fun of it. When we all playing the right way, when we all making the right pass.”

“You know, and I’ve always wanted to be the guy, like the KD, the LeBron type to bring that aura and that atmosphere and those type of wins to the city. You know, so I’m still at a place to where I’m hungry.”

Beasley, who has been a fantasy darling, as I mentioned in a previous edition of Fantasy Hoops, will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after making slightly over $1.47MM this season in New York. With the strides he has made, the former No. 2 pick could be looking at much more lucrative offers once the new league year begins, though that’s just my speculation.

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Indiana Pacers

March 2nd, 2018 at 5:55pm CST by Austin Kent

The Pacers are in an enviable position mere months after it seemed like they were doomed to a long and challenging rebuild. The breakout seasons enjoyed by Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis have helped distract from the absence of Paul George while the all-around contributions of an unheralded, cohesive veteran lineup has put Indiana firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The Pacers didn’t make a major splash at the trade deadline and were even asked specifically by players to avoid tinkering with the chemistry in the locker room. While it’s hard to argue that the franchise made the wrong call standing pat with a roster that’s punched above its weight on a nightly basis, the Pacers have a long road ahead of them before they’re considered serious challengers, even in the East.

It’s refreshing to see a team build anew without bottoming out. Solid drafting and some responsible payroll management will help them climb to the next rung on the ladder.Cory Joseph vertical

Cory Joseph, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $29.9MM contract in 2017
Joseph has thrived as the younger half of a point guard tandem charged with the task of helping the Pacers play a faster style of basketball. While he’s ceded the majority of the starts so far this season to Darren Collison, Joseph is a solid rotation piece and possible future starter. It’s likely we’ve already caught a glimpse of his ceiling, so the former Raptors probably won’t draw major money on the open market. That being said, it’s hard to imagine he couldn’t procure a raise if he turns down his 2018/19 player option worth just less than $8MM.

Glenn Robinson III, SF, 24 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM contract in 2015
After breaking into Indy’s rotation in 2016/17, an ankle injury put Robinson III’s latest campaign on hold until after the All-Star Game. The Pacers may see some upside in the former second-round pick, and likely won’t have to outbid many competitors to retain his services should they wish to do so. Assuming the swingman’s health holds up in the final stretch of 2017/18, expect the club to lock him in for at least a few more seasons at an affordable rate. At this stage in the game, the Pacers can justify the low-risk, medium-reward lottery ticket.

Lance Stephenson, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $12.6MM deal in 2017
While Stephenson’s career took a turn for the worse after he flew the coop in 2014, his return to Indiana has helped restore his value as a professional basketball player. The 27-year-old may not be the irreplaceable triple-double machine the Hornets hoped he would be when they poached him from Indiana four years ago, but he’s a solid rotation piece whose contributions to the Pacers franchise are both mysterious and intangible. Expect the club to bring their enigmatic swingman back on his dirt-cheap $4.4MM team option.

Joe Young, PG, 26 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $5.1MM deal in 2015
The Pacers have never seemed particularly intent on working Young into their rotation. While you could argue that a consistently competitive squad like Indiana may be inherently reluctant to throw big minutes at an inexperienced point guard, he only topped the 20-minute plateau four times during his first two years in the league. The 25-year-old has seen an uptick in usage since Collison went down with a knee injury in early February, but the club may be better off turning down his team option and seeing what else they could do with the roster spot.

Thaddeus Young, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $53.9MM deal in 2015
Young has established himself as a critical component of this Pacers team and fills the role of do-everything veteran forward admirably. While the almost-30-year-old’s services would be welcomed by several other contending teams, it’s hard to imagine Young’s camp being all that confident they’d land more than $13.8MM in a bear market. If Indiana was knee deep in the turbulent rebuild many expected, it would make sense for Young to take that chance, but given that the opposite is true, I anticipate him accepting the 2018/19 player option and returning as a leader on and off the court.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Community Shootaround: Western Playoff Race

March 2nd, 2018 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

While it remains to be seen whether the Rockets or Warriors will finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, there’s no risk of either team falling below No. 2. Houston currently has a half-game lead on the second-place Warriors and a 12-game lead on the third-place Timberwolves.

After the top two teams in the West though, things get very interesting. As of today, there are seven Western teams separated by just two games in the loss column, with the 10th-seeded Jazz hanging around the race too. Here’s a current snapshot of the standings in the West:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (38-27)
  2. Portland Trail Blazers (36-26)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (36-26)
  4. New Orleans Pelicans (35-26)
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (36-27)
  6. Denver Nuggets (33-28)
  7. Los Angeles Clippers (32-28)
  8. Utah Jazz (31-30)

Several of these teams have lost key players via injury or trade this season. The Timberwolves are currently without Jimmy Butler; Kawhi Leonard has barely played for the Spurs; DeMarcus Cousins is out for the season for the Pelicans; the Thunder will be without Andre Roberson for the season; the Nuggets and Jazz have lost Paul Millsap and Rudy Gobert for big chunks of the season, though both are playing now; and, of course, the Clippers traded Blake Griffin before last month’s deadline.

Of the eight teams vying for the final six playoff spots in the West, only the Spurs (3-7) have a losing record in their last 10 games, with the Trail Blazers (five straight wins) and Pelicans (seven straight wins) among the hottest teams in the group. Still, things could change quickly. Two or three losses in a row could send a team sliding down the standings in the West.

These teams have between 17 and 22 games left in the regular season, so we’re entering the home stretch, and there will be a key matchup worth watching nearly every day. The next two nights, for instance, will pit the Timberwolves vs. the Jazz and the Thunder vs. the Trail Blazers.

What’s your take on the Western Conference playoff race? Which two teams will miss the postseason? Which two teams will gain home-court advantage by nabbing the third and fourth seeds? Which first-round matchups would you most like to see?

Jump into the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts