Hoops Rumors Originals

Predicting The Future: Markelle Fultz

When Markelle Fultz made his debut earlier this season, he became just the third No. 1 overall pick in history to come off the bench.  Sarah Todd of The Philadelphia Inquirer notes that the other two top selections who did not start right away ended up having underwhelming careers.

Anthony Bennett, who was a surprise No. 1 overall pick, began with the Cavs’ bench unit and he never made his way into the starting lineup for Cleveland. He was sent to Wolves in the Kevin Love deal and he ended up only starting three games during his lone season in Minnesota. After a stop in Toronto where he played in just 19 games (no starts), he landed in Brooklyn for just 23 games (one start). Bennett now plays in the G League.

Andrea Bargnani spent the majority of his rookie season on the bench, though he accumulated 314 starts in Toronto over the ensuing six seasons. He peaked during the lockout-shortened 2011/12 season, sporting a player efficiency rating of 17.9, though he never made an All-Star team nor became a top contributor to a winning team.

Bennett was arguably the worst No. 1 pick in history, though Fultz’s early troubles do not mean that he will compete with Bennett for that distinction. It’s more likely that the point guard ends up rivaling Bargnani’s career—someone who plays around 10 seasons in the league, but never really lives up to the hype—than ending up in the G League like Bennett.

It’s too early to definitely say whether Fultz is a bust or whether this is simply a minor roadblock on the way to a Hall of Fame career. There’s a wide range of possibilities between a Bennett-type fall and a James Harden-type rise and there are benchmarks in between those two extremes.

Fultz could make an All-Star team. He could make an All-NBA team or he could struggle and never meet any of the expectations that come with being a No. 1 overall pick. Even if he doesn’t meet those expectations, he could remain in the league and make a nice living as a secondary player. He could be Bargnani.

How do you see Fultz’s career shaking out? Will he meet or exceed any of the expectations of being the top overall selection of the 2017 draft? Will he be better or worse than Bargnani?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Community Shootaround: First-Time All-Stars

Today is more than just Christmas; it also marks the first day of voting for the NBA’s All-Star Game. This year’s contest, which will take place February 18 in Los Angeles, will feature a new format, with the traditional East vs. West matchup scrapped in favor of two team captains selecting from a pool of players.

Fans can count on seeing perennial All-Stars such as LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and others, but every year brings a few fresh faces. Here are some candidates who are in position to make their first All-Star appearance.

  • Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks — The trade of Carmelo Anthony made Porzingis the clear No. 1 option in New York and he is responding with his best season. Porzingis is averaging 24.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game and has the Knicks in the middle of the playoff race. Barring injury, he seems almost certain to earn All-Star honors.
  • Joel Embiid, Sixers — Embiid would probably be an All-Star every season if he could remain healthy. He has increased his minutes to more than  31 per game this year and is delivering 23.7 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. Embiid may have an MVP season in his future and seems like a lock for the All-Star Game.
  • Ben Simmons, Sixers — The early favorite for Rookie of the Year, Simmons has shown no ill effects from missing the entire 2016/17 season, averaging 17.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists through his first 31 games. He has displayed the versatility and court vision that made him the first overall pick in 2016.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves — His numbers have declined this season as Minnesota added more talent around him, but there’s no denying that Towns is among the best young centers in the league. He’s on pace to average a double-double for the third straight season, putting up 20.5 points and 11.7 rebounds per game.
  • Victor Oladipo, Pacers — Oladipo is primed to win the Most Improved Player award and maybe a few other honors. He has been invigorated by an offseason trade to Indiana, raising his scoring average nearly 10 points per game to its current level of 25.3.
  • Bradley Beal, Wizards — Another high-scoring Eastern shooting guard, Beal helped Washington remain competitive with John Wall sidelined by injury. Beal sometimes gets overshadowed by his backcourt partner, but he is turning in another outstanding season, averaging 23 points per night.
  • Myles Turner, Pacers — Turner has become an elite shot blocker, leading the league at 2.5 per game, to go with 14.7 points and 7.1 rebounds. He is part of the reason Indiana has been able to stay in the playoff race without Paul George.

We want to get your input. Which of these players is most deserving of an All-Star debut this season, and are there some others who should be mentioned? Please leave your responses in the comments section below.

Weekly Mailbag: 12/18/17 – 12/24/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

What are your thoughts on Nikola Mirotic‘s value before the deadline? — Mike 2k_97, via Twitter

A report earlier this month said the Bulls looked into trading Mirotic and Bobby Portis after their preseason altercation and found a “non-existent” market for both players. That may have changed with Mirotic’s performance during the seven-game winning streak, but now it may be in Chicago’s interest to keep the team together. Mirotic and Portis have put aside their differences and are working effectively as teammates, and neither is all that expensive. Mirotic re-signed for $12.5MM this season with a team option for the same amount in 2018/19, while Portis is still on his rookie contract. Mirotic is putting up by far the best numbers of his career with 17.9 points and 7.6 rebounds and is shooting 48% from 3-point range. However, teams are still wary about his past performance, so his trade value isn’t high. The Bulls might get a couple of draft picks, but nothing too significant, so expect him to stay in Chicago for the rest of the season.

What do you think Lakers can receive by trading Julius Randle before the deadline? — Ralph Lakers, via Twitter

The Lakers are in an uncomfortable position. The rest of the league knows they want to cut salary to make a free agent splash next summer, so other teams are asking for a premium price to help them. Earlier today, we passed along a report that teams want multiple first-rounders or Brandon Ingram in exchange for taking on Luol Deng‘s contract. Randle doesn’t have nearly the negative value that Deng does, but Lakers fans shouldn’t expect anything significant in return for salary dumps. L.A. had preliminary talks with the Mavericks about Nerlens Noel before the Dallas center had thumb surgery, and that’s probably as good as the return is going to get. If Randle is traded, it will be for an expiring contract that won’t affect cap room.

Timberwolves newcomer Jimmy Butler has quickly established himself as the alpha dog over Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Wiggins signed a max contract extension this year, and Towns is due for one next year. Butler can opt out of his contract the following year. Is it possible for a team to sign three players to max deals? If not, do you foresee the Wolves trading either Wiggins or Towns in order to keep Butler? — Matt Trapp

The Wolves must be budgeting for three max deals or they wouldn’t have given one to Wiggins, who is young and talented but is easily the most expendable of the three. Barring injury, Towns is a lock for a maximum extension when the time comes and Butler became the cornerstone of the franchise when Minnesota traded for him in July. With Gorgui Dieng signed through 20/21 and Wiggins’ extension carrying into 2021/22, the Wolves aren’t going to have cap room to work with anyway. Towns and Butler will both get max deals and management will accept the tax penalties as long as the team keeps winning.

Community Shootaround: Are The Bulls For Real?

Through the early part of the season, the Bulls were headed in a predictable direction. After trading Jimmy Butler, not re-signing Rajon Rondo and negotiating a buyout with Dwyane Wade, last year’s “Three Alphas” were gone and Chicago seemed headed for a high lottery pick with a 3-20 record.

But things changed quickly when Nikola Mirotic returned from facial fractures he picked up in a preseason skirmish with teammate Bobby Portis. The Bulls put together a seven-game winning streak that included a victory over the East-leading Celtics. That streak has been stopped with back-to-back losses at Cleveland and Boston, but Chicago entered the night just six and a half games out of a playoff spot with plenty of time left to make a run.

Another key to the turnaround has been point guard Kris Dunn, one of the pieces acquired from Minnesota in the Butler deal. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists on the season and has hit double figures in scoring in 12 of his last 13 games. Dunn is showing flashes of the player he was expected to be when the Wolves took him with the fifth pick in the 2016 draft.

Among the believers is Celtics coach Brad Stevens, who raved about Chicago’s improvement before tonight’s game. “The last 10 games they’ve been unbelievable,” he said. “Like, they’ve been fun to watch and their half-court offense has been the best in the NBA.”

Looming on the horizon is the Chicago debut of Zach LaVine, the high-flying guard who was also acquired in the Butler deal. The Bulls have been cautious about his recovery from a torn ACL last season, but he is expected to be ready in early January. LaVine was posting a career-high 18.9 points per game before the injury.

With Chicago suddenly playing like a contender, we want to know what you think. Do the Bulls have enough talent to challenge for a playoff spot or will they fade back to the bottom of the East? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/16/17 – 12/23/17

Every week, we at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Below are our original segments and features from the last 7 days:

Fantasy Hoops: Beasley, Daniels, Ibaka, KCP

When fans are chanting “MVP” as Michael Beasley parades the court, it may seem as if though you are in an alternative universe.  However, 2017 has brought us a plethora of shocking occurrences in the NBA world and amidst all of that, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the former No. 2 overall pick, who’s known for his offense, has found a way to be relevant again.NBA: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Beasley dominated the team with the Eastern Conference’s best record on Thursday night, scoring 32 points in 25 minutes off the bench. He made 65% of shots and posted a plus/minus of 18. While he’s unlikely to be that efficient going forward, he warrants a roster spot for those fantasy owners who have one to spare due to his upside.

Beasley is always a threat to regress, though he should maintain a large slice of Knicks‘ offensive pie, at least while Tim Hardaway remains sidelined, and that makes him a contributor in fantasy leagues.

Here’s more fantasy basketball notes and analysis from around the league:

  • Sometimes smaller trades pay dividends, as I mentioned in last week’s edition of Fantasy Hoops, and the Suns made one of the offseason’s best minor deals when they nabbed Troy Daniels from the Grizzlies. Daniels hasn’t been a consistent fantasy performer, though he’s been a contributor in the three-pointer category for those in Roto leagues. Since Devin Booker exited the lineup with a groin injury, only eight players have made more shots per game from behind the arc than Daniels has. Booker could be back before the end of the month, but while he’s sidelined, enjoy the production.
  • Serge Ibaka is enjoying a nice month of December, posting 6.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game since the calendar turned. He’s also shooting 53.7% from downtown, making 2.4 shots per night. Sometimes veterans can be undervalued in fantasy and if that’s the case in your league, Ibaka could be a player to target in trades.
  • Searching for someone on the waiver wire to help you in the steals category? Kent Bazemore (owned in just under 57% of ESPN leagues) may be your guy. Only three players—Robert Covington, Draymond Green, Chris Paul—have more steals per game in the month of December than Atlanta’s swingman.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is currently serving a 25-day jail sentence and can only play home games as part of his work-release program since he is not permitted to leave the state of California. KCP should only miss two games during this stretch (Houston on December 31; Minnesota on January 1). Plan accordingly.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Five Minor NBA Offseason Trades Paying Dividends

The NBA’s trade market was incredibly active throughout the 2017 offseason, with a total of 40 deals completed between the end of last season and the start of the 2017/18 campaign.

Of those 40 trades, several were blockbusters. Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas, Chris Paul, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Carmelo Anthony all changed teams, as did the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Some of the non-blockbuster deals are having a major impact this season too, with guys like Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, and Avery Bradley all on the move.

There are even a handful of trades made for monetary reasons that have been interesting to monitor — the Nets took on salary dumps like DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe and have turned them into key parts of their rotation, while the Bulls continue to get hammered for selling second-round pick Jordan Bell to the defending-champion Warriors.

We’ve written plenty about most of those trades already, so today we’re taking the opportunity to shine a light on a few deals that have flown somewhat under the radar. These trades seemed like relatively minor moves at the time, but are paying dividends for the teams involved. Let’s dive in…

  1. Troy Daniels verticalSuns acquire Troy Daniels and a 2018 second-round pick from the Grizzlies in exchange for a top-55-protected 2018 second-round pick. With too many guaranteed salaries on their books heading into training camp, the Grizzlies dumped one by attaching a second-round pick to Daniels and sending him to Phoenix in exchange for a pick that won’t convey. The move saved Memphis some money, but the club probably could’ve used Daniels more than some of the players it kept. In his last 19 games for the Suns, Daniels has averaged 10.8 PPG and shot 44.3% on three-pointers. He has been particularly productive in the last couple weeks, scoring a career-high 32 points last Wednesday vs. Toronto, then hitting the game-winning shot to beat his old team last night.
  2. Pacers acquire Cory Joseph from the Raptors in exchange for the draft rights to Emir Preldzic. Joseph was originally going to head to Indiana in a deal that would have sent C.J. Miles to Toronto. However, the terms of Miles’ contract made him ineligible to be signed-and-traded, so the Raptors signed him outright and sent Joseph to the Pacers in a separate move to dump some salary. Having essentially been traded for nothing, Joseph has been very solid as the Pacers’ backup point guard this season, making a career-best 43.0% of his threes and chipping in 7.7 PPG and 2.9 APG. Joseph isn’t the main reason the Pacers have exceeded expectations, but he has played a role in the club’s early success.
  3. Hornets acquire Dwayne Bacon and cash ($1.8MM) from the Pelicans in exchange for Frank Jackson. The Pelicans paid Charlotte $1.8MM in order to move up from No. 40 to No. 31 in the draft, having targeted Jackson. It’s unfair to judge Jackson’s NBA career so far, since it hasn’t even started — a broken foot has sidelined him since the start of September. Still, the Hornets have to be happy with how their side of the deal is working out so far. Bacon claimed a rotation role to open the season, and while he’s experiencing some growing pains as of late, he has shown plenty of promise. The extra $1.8MM that Charlotte picked up in the deal is just a bonus.
  4. Grizzlies acquire Dillon Brooks from the Rockets in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick. Not much has gone right for the Grizzlies this season, but the team has to be pleased with what Brooks has shown so far. The 21-year-old is currently Memphis’ starting small forward, and has held his own with a respectable .460/.368/.778 shooting line. Of the youngsters on the Grizzlies’ roster, Brooks has shown more long-term keeper potential than most. Meanwhile, the Rockets did okay in this deal too — the 2018 second-rounder they’ll receive will be the least favorable of the Grizzlies’, Hornets’, and Heat’s selections. All three of those teams have underperformed so far this season, improving the value of the pick.
  5. Knicks acquire the rights to Scott Perry from the Kings in exchange for a 2019 second-round pick and cash ($400K). No players were involved in this swap, but it was technically a trade, with the Kings allowing the Knicks to poach one of their top front-office executives. It’s another deal that has benefited both sides. The Knicks’ front office appears to have finally stabilized since the arrival of Perry, who put a hold on the Carmelo Anthony trade talks in July, then eventually found a deal that has worked out well for New York. As for the Kings, they can’t complain much about securing cash and a future draft pick in exchange for an exec who worked in their front office for less than three months.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Denver Nuggets

After years of being a beloved up-and-coming Western Conference hopeful, the Nuggets have lost some of their sheen due to circumstances somewhat out of their control. The franchise made its intentions clear by signing Paul Millsap to a contract north of $31MM this season, which only adds to the frustration caused by a relatively mediocre start.

The Nuggets had their hands full adding Millsap to the fold alongside 22-year-old Nikola Jokic, so we can’t exactly fault the club for getting out to a slow start, but – at just 16-15 – they have. When word broke that the 32-year-old free agent would miss months with a wrist injury, the outlook grew even more bleak.

All told, the Nuggets may not be quite as mysteriously captivating as they were in the past, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still be a solid team eventually given the still-very-much intriguing young pieces that dot the roster.

Darrell Arthur, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $23MM deal in 2016
While Arthur has played nine seasons with just two NBA franchises, carving out a role as a consistently reliable rotation player on both despite never logging more than the 21.7 minutes per game, his pedestrian career marks of 6.6 points and 3.6 rebounds per game aren’t likely to yield much on the open market. For that reason, expect him to pick up his $7.5MM player option.

Will Barton, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $10MM deal in 2015Will Barton of the Denver Nuggets vertical
In three and a half seasons with the Nuggets, Barton has made a name for himself as a solid spark plug off the bench. The soon-to-be 27-year-old unrestricted free agent will hit the open market in July and seems likely to command more from another suitor than the Nuggets would be comfortable matching given the other building blocks they’ll need to commit to.

Wilson Chandler, SF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $47MM deal in 2015
Despite having a career year in 2016/17 and starting every game of the season for the Nuggets so far this year, Chandler isn’t a major part of Denver’s long-term plans. Given that we may see more penny pinching next summer than we did the last two because of a league-wide dearth of cap room, it’s hard to imagine the forward landing more than what he’ll be able to get just by accepting the $13MM player option he has for $2018/19.

Richard Jefferson, SF, 38 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
After landing with the Nuggets on a minimum deal following his release from the Cavaliers at the start of the season, Jefferson will hit free agency once again next summer. At the ripe age of 38, no longer privy to the luxuries of competing for a championship, don’t put it past the podcasting superstar to retire.

Nikola Jokic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2015
The Nuggets have options for dealing with Jokic’s inevitable free agency. There’s no denying that the affable big man with a 24.1 career PER will command max money whenever he’s eligible to sign a new deal — whether that happens next summer or the one after that is the question. Denver holds a team option for Jokic’s 2018/19 campaign. While they could technically turn down his team option and look to lock him up as a restricted free agent in 2018, the Nuggets are already flirting with the luxury tax for next season without a monster Jokic deal on their books (or a possible Barton deal, for that matter). The front office could be better suited accepting the team option and then making a major play for the big man in 2019, once the contracts of Chandler, Arthur and Kenneth Faried expire. Still, there are optics to think about in that scenario. Regardless, Jokic has earned big money, so let’s pull up some chairs and watch how Tim Connelly and Arturas Karnisovas try to figure this out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Stretch Provision

For NBA teams looking to open up cap room, simply waiving a player isn’t as effective as it is in the NFL, where salaries are often non-guaranteed and most or all of a player’s cap charge can frequently be wiped from a team’s books. Still, the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement does feature a rule that allows teams to spread a player’s cap hit over multiple seasons. This is called the stretch provision.

The stretch provision ensures that any player waived with at least $250K in guaranteed salary remaining on his contract will have the payment schedule of that money spread across multiple years. That schedule is determined as follows:

  • If a player is waived between July 1 and August 31, his remaining salary is paid over twice the number of years remaining on his contract, plus one.
  • If a player is waived between September 1 and June 30, his current-year salary is paid on its normal schedule, with any subsequent years spread over twice the number of remaining years, plus one.
    • Note: If a player in the final year of his contract is waived between September 1 and June 30, the stretch provision does not apply.

To create a clearer picture of what these rules look like, let’s focus on a specific player. We’ll use Knicks center Joakim Noah as our example, since his exorbitant salary makes him a candidate to be stretched at some point. Here’s what Noah’s current contract looks like, along with what it would look like if the Knicks waive and stretch him by next August 31, or after August 31:

Year Current contract Stretched by 8/31/18
Stretched after 8/31/18
2017/18 $17,765,000 $17,765,000 $17,765,000
2018/19 $18,530,000 $7,565,000 $18,530,000
2019/20 $19,295,000 $7,565,000 $6,431,666
2020/21 $7,565,000 $6,431,667
2021/22 $7,565,000 $6,431,667
2022/23 $7,565,000

Because the Knicks didn’t waive and stretch Noah before August 31, 2017, his 2017/18 salary is locked in at $17,765,000, barring a buyout. If New York had wanted to reduce that number, the club could have waived and stretched him in July or August and spread his cap hits across seven years (at about $7.94MM annually). That would have created additional ’17/18 cap room, but the Knicks determined that wasn’t necessary.

If the Knicks do stretch Noah, they’ll have to decide whether to do it before August 31 or sometime after that. The decision may come down to whether or not the team wants to create cap room in 2018 at the expense of future flexibility. Stretching Noah in July or August would create nearly $11MM in additional room right away, but it would mean taking on mid-sized cap hits for the following five years. If the Knicks were to stretch Noah after August, they wouldn’t gain immediate cap room, but their future commitments would be far more modest.

Here are a few more rules related to the stretch provision:

  • Although the stretch provision regulates when money is paid out, it doesn’t prevent teams and players from negotiating a reduced salary as part of a buyout.
  • Non-guaranteed money isn’t subject to the stretch provision, since a team isn’t obligated to pay any non-guaranteed portion of a contract once it waives a player.
  • While the new payment schedule for a waived player is non-negotiable, teams have the option of whether or not to apply the stretch provision to that player’s cap charges as well. A team can stick to the original schedule for cap-hit purposes, if it so chooses.

All these rules came together when the Hawks waived Jamal Crawford in July. Crawford had two years and approximately $28.7MM left on his contract, but only about $17.2MM of that money was guaranteed. So if the Hawks had decided to stretch his cap hits, they’d only have had to account for that guaranteed portion, spreading $17.2MM across five years.

Instead, the team negotiated a buyout with Crawford, who wanted to go to a contender, reducing his total guaranteed salary to about $13.24MM. The Hawks then decided not to stretch Crawford’s cap hits, since they preferred cap flexibility in future seasons rather than in 2017. After the buyout, Atlanta could have stretched Crawford’s cap charges across five years at about $2.65MM annually. Instead, he’ll count against the Hawks’ cap for $10.94MM this year, then $2.3MM next year.

Here’s one final example of how a team can use the stretch provision to create a tiny bit of extra cap room: Back in July, the Celtics waived Demetrius Jackson when he had three years left on his contract, but only $650K in guaranteed money. The final year of Jackson’s deal was a team option, which would normally be declined when a players is waived. In Jackson’s case though, the team option was non-guaranteed.

That meant the Celtics could exercise the option without being on the hook for any extra guaranteed money, and doing so allowed the team to stretch Jackson’s cap charges across seven years instead of five years, since there were now officially three years left on his deal instead of two. So instead of counting against Boston’s cap for the next five years at $130K annually, Jackson will count for about $93K for the next seven years. Gaining that extra $37K of flexibility this season helped the Celtics make use of every last dollar under the cap.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

An earlier version of this post was published in 2013 by Chuck Myron.

Another Roster Decision Looming For Suns?

It was just a couple weeks ago that the Suns were forced to make a roster decision — in order to make room on their 15-man squad to convert Mike James‘ two-way contract into a standard NBA deal, the team had to trade or waive another player. Ultimately, Phoenix opted to waive Derrick Jones to open up that roster spot.

In that case, the Suns’ decision was fairly simple — Jones’ salary was non-guaranteed and he had only appeared briefly in six games all season. He didn’t have a key role in Phoenix, and his upside wasn’t so substantial that he was a crucial part of the team’s long-term plans. It made sense that he’d be the man out.

Now though, another roster decision may be approaching for the Suns, and this one may not be quite as simple.

With four players on the shelf due to injuries, the Suns were recently granted a hardship exception, giving them an extra roster spot, and used it to sign point guard Isaiah Canaan. Since joining the club, Canaan has played a crucial role in a pair of Suns wins, averaging an impressive 16.0 PPG with 6.5 APG and a .600/.600/.917 shooting line in his two games.

Obviously, that sample size is extremely small. It’s entirely possible that Canaan will struggle in his next couple games and the Suns will simply opt to let him go when their hardship exception expires and Booker – or another player – is ready to return. Still, Canaan is making a strong case for a permanent spot on the roster, and if he keeps it up, the Suns would have to trade or waive another player to get back down to 15 players.

Players with modest salaries or non-guaranteed contracts are generally the most vulnerable in this sort of situation, but after waiving Jones, Phoenix doesn’t have any other players on non-guaranteed deals. And most of the team’s lowest-paid players are promising youngsters that the club wouldn’t want to waive — that list includes Davon Reed, Tyler Ulis, Booker, Marquese Chriss, T.J. Warren, Troy Daniels, Alex Len, Dragan Bender, and Josh Jackson, in ascending salary order.

The Suns’ roster also features high-priced veterans like Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler, and Jared Dudley, plus injured big man Alan Williams, whose $6MM salary puts him squarely between the pricier vets and the inexpensive young players. Knight, Chandler, and Dudley all have significant guarantees beyond this season, Monroe has been playing too well to simply be cut, and waiving Williams – who has yet to play a single game since signing a three-year deal in the offseason, doesn’t seem logical either.

So who’s left? Only James, whose minutes have been significantly reduced during the past two games since Canaan arrived.

Since the Suns won’t have much leverage to push for a trade in the coming days, waiving a player seems more likely. Phoenix’s decision might ultimately come down to the point guard whose impressive play on a two-way deal earned him a full-fledged roster spot earlier this month vs. the point guard who has had only played two games (albeit two very good games) for the team so far. We may soon find out whether Canaan has made a strong enough impression to win that battle.