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2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southwest Division

November 17th, 2017 at 3:11pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re finishing up our series with the Southwest division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Southwest teams:

Memphis Grizzlies
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $101,105,736
Projection: Over the cap

Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, and Marc Gasol will earn a combined $78MM+ in 2018/19, so unless the Grizzlies trade one of those players, the team is extremely unlikely to create any meaningful cap space. If Memphis struggles and misses the playoffs this season, I could see trade rumors surrounding Gasol begin to intensify, but for now, we’re assuming the Grizzlies will begin the 2018 offseason over the projected $101MM salary cap.

New Orleans Pelicans
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $91,577,138
Projection: Over the cap

With nearly $92MM committed to just seven players, the Pelicans would need to account for cap charges for five empty roster spots. Once those cap charges are added to team salary, New Orleans is left with about $5MM in potential cap room, which is less than the value of the mid-level exception. So even if the Pelicans don’t end up keeping DeMarcus Cousins‘ cap hold on their books to try to re-sign him, they’ll likely function as an over-the-cap club.

San Antonio Spurs
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,410,994
Projection: Up to approximately $18MM in cap room

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Spurs ultimately don’t have any cap room at their disposal for 2018. The team has three veterans holding player options, in Danny Green ($10MM), Rudy Gay ($8.8MM), and Joffrey Lauvergne ($1.7MM), as well as three potential restricted free agents (Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans, and Bryn Forbes).

It’s entirely possible that all three of those players with options turn them down, and it’s also within reason that the Spurs will let their RFAs go. Still, I’d expect at least two or three of those six players to remain in San Antonio. And if guys like Green and Gay are among those returnees, either on their options or on new contracts, then the Spurs’ cap space will evaporate in a hurry.

Houston Rockets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,123,448
Projection: Up to approximately $18MM in cap room

Like the Spurs, the Rockets could create a modest amount of cap room by parting ways with all their potential free agents, but the more likely scenario will see them stay over the cap. Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Trevor Ariza will be among the most coveted free agents in the NBA, and re-signing even one of the three would likely take Houston over the cap, or close to it. Re-signing two, or all three, could push Houston into luxury-tax territory.

Dallas Mavericks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $41,269,318
Projection: Up to approximately $35MM in cap room

Based on their current team salary projections for 2018/19, the Mavericks could theoretically create up to $53MM in cap space. However, that’s probably an unrealistic estimate, since it doesn’t include Wesley Matthews‘ $18.6MM player option.

The 31-year-old guard has failed to make more than 40% of his field goal attempts in any of his three seasons with the Mavs, and his .359 FG% so far this season is his worst mark yet. He’s also averaging just 11.2 PPG despite playing 34.6 minutes per contest. Simply put, Matthews isn’t going to find an $18MM salary on the open market if he turns down his option.

As such, our projection for the Mavs assumes that Matthews will exercise that option, which still leaves Dallas with about $35MM in cap room. That would be more than enough to bring back Seth Curry and Dirk Nowitzki – if he doesn’t retire – and still have space left over.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Fantasy Hoops: Big-Money Free Agents

November 17th, 2017 at 1:48pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Compared to the spending spree summers of 2015 and 2016, this past offseason was a mild showing for players cashing in on major contracts. Yet, quite a few players received deals that appeared above the market rate at the time. Let’s examine how some of the players who signed bloated free agent contracts are performing early on and assess their fantasy value going forward:

Otto Porter Jr., Wizards (four years, $106MM):

Does Simon Helberg warrant $26.5MM per year? In a vacuum, probably not. But in his current environment, the figure is much more understandable. Hollywood’s third-highest-paid TV actor, who stars in The Big Bang Theory, doesn’t carry the mega-successful sitcom, but his efficiency and excellent chemistry with the show’s stars (the industry’s two highest-paid actors) allow him to thrive in his role.

Porter is Washington’s Simon Helberg. The combo forward has evolved since being drafted with the No. 3 overall pick, developing from a high-risk, high-reward 3-and-D prospect to someone who can not only play that role but also is dangerous enough to lead his own sets and take the pressure off of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards look like legitimate threats to make the Eastern Conference Finals and Porter’s versatility and next-level efficiency (shooting 50% from downtown this season; 57.6% from the field) are major reasons why.

The Nets saw Porter’s talent and potential and wanted to give him his own show in Brooklyn, but the Wizards matched the offer sheet and kept him as a secondary option. Could he succeed as the lead star of the team? Perhaps. Porter, like Helberg (36 years old), is relatively young and could eventually grow into someone capable of carrying a majority share of the load. However, in both cases, the best shot at landing near the top of standings is to remain in their current situations.

Fantasy owners don’t need Porter to take on a bigger role to appreciate his production. His contributions across multiple categories make him a top-20 player in Roto leagues, and while some may be tempted to sell high on Porter given the likelihood that his stats will decline to some extent, it’s best to resist that urge.

The Georgetown product might have the highest fantasy-value-to-star-status ratio in the league, meaning many owners may not appropriately evaluate his worth. Unless you can land a clear upgrade (Paul George, Marc Gasol, Joel Embiid), keep Porter on your squad and enjoy the production.

In ESPN leagues, Porter was selected on average with the No. 44 overall pick. If you nabbed him near that spot, you, like the Wizards, can enjoy an excellent return on your investment.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks (four years, $72MM):

New York’s prized offseason addition has been very busy early on, especially from behind the arc. Only three players (Eric Gordon, James Harden, and Stephen Curry) are taking more three-pointers than Hardaway’s 7.9 per game.

Hardaway is only shooting 30.9% on those attempts. However, while those in Roto leagues may worry about his field goal percentage, the volume – combined with his ability to contribute in other categories – should alleviate those concerns. The 25-year-old is pulling down 4.4 rebounds, dishing out 3.1 assists, and snatching over a steal per game. Value him above players like Will Barton, Dennis Smith Jr., and Lonzo Ball.

Paul Millsap, Nuggets (three years, $90MM):

The Nuggets, though still wildly inconsistent, appear to be a playoff team, something fueled by Millsap’s contributions on the defensive end. However, the power forward has taken a step back on the offensive end and it’s hurt his fantasy stock early on.

Those who drafted Millsap in ESPN leagues took him on average with the No. 36 overall pick and he simply has not produced value from that spot so far this season. His value has fallen more in points leagues than in Roto, though he is still usable in both.

Millsap has never been a master at any one statistical category, but rather a steady force in many. His decline in per-game points (15.7; lowest mark since 2012/13 in Utah), rebounds (4.8; fewest since the 2009/10 season) and assists (2.8; fewest since 2012/13) are discouraging, but he’s just one of nine players averaging at least a block and a steal per contest. He won’t kill you in the percentage categories and he’ll remain his normal self from beyond the arc.

Millsap’s versatile stat line makes him a high-floor player and that will help to mitigate the loss in value from his draft-day price. He could actually be a buy-low target if someone in your league is over-projecting his decline.

Remember, staying active and exploring all opportunities in trades is a key part of fantasy leagues and that means not turning away from players who appear to be on the downswing. If you can properly evaluate, you can get an edge in trade discussions and Millsap’s perceived decline may present you with a chance to win a deal.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Friday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Pacific Division

November 17th, 2017 at 8:52am CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Pacific division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Pacific teams:

Golden State Warriors
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $102,091,455
Projection: Over the cap

The Warriors’ total guaranteed salary of $102MM for next season looks modest at first glance. But that figure only accounts for seven players, and Kevin Durant isn’t one of them. Even if Durant is willing to sign for several million less than the max again, which is certainly no lock, re-signing him and then filling out the rest of their roster figures to take the Dubs into luxury-tax territory.

Phoenix Suns
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $70,667,235
Projection: Up to approximately $28MM in cap room

While the Suns’ return in the Eric Bledsoe trade was widely viewed as underwhelming, the move did clear $15MM in guaranteed salary from the club’s 2018/19 cap, creating additional flexibility. Retaining Alan Williams – who has a non-guaranteed salary – and re-signing Alex Len would cut into the Suns’ cap space. However, neither of those moves are locks at this point, so Phoenix could get easily get to $25MM+ in cap room, and could potentially open up even more room by trading Jared Dudley and/or Tyson Chandler, who will be on expiring contracts next season.

Sacramento Kings
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $68,252,577
Projection: Up to approximately $33MM in cap room ($16MM if player options exercised)

There have been no reports yet suggesting that Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple will exercise their player options for 2018/19, which are worth about $8.74MM and $8MM, respectively. The Kings should probably be preparing for that outcome though — neither player has a major role, and the free agent market won’t be as player-friendly as it was in 2016, when Koufos and Temple signed their current deals.

If those options are exercised, the Kings’ guaranteed salaries will increase to about $85MM, limiting their cap flexibility. But they’ll also be able to dedicate that remaining cap room to a single player, if they so choose — assuming Koufos and Temple return, Sacramento would head into the offseason with 14 players under contract, not including draft picks.

Los Angeles Clippers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $59,880,133
Projection: Up to approximately $31MM in cap room

Only five Clippers players currently have fully guaranteed salaries for 2018/19, but there are several other candidates to return. For one, Patrick Beverley and his $5MM non-guaranteed salary will certainly be back — that’s a tremendous bargain for one of the league’s best defensive players, and our cap projection for the Clippers assumes he’ll be on the books at that price.

Our cap projection doesn’t take into account any player options though, and four Clippers players hold those options for 2018/19. DeAndre Jordan, who figures to land a lucrative multiyear deal, will likely turn down his $24MM option, but Austin Rivers ($12.65MM), Milos Teodosic ($6.3MM), and Wesley Johnson ($6.1MM) are candidates to opt in. If all three of those players pick up their options and Beverley is retained, the Clips’ cap room will essentially disappear.

Los Angeles Lakers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $49,336,471
Projection: Up to approximately $47.5MM in cap room

The Lakers’ desire to open up two maximum-salary slots for the 2018 free agent period has been well publicized, but the team still has some work to do to achieve that goal. Based on a $101MM cap, maximum salaries for, say, LeBron James and Paul George would be worth a combined $65.65MM in 2018/19. L.A. remains about $18MM shy of that figure, even assuming the team renounces Julius Randle, Brook Lopez, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Of course, moving Luol Deng‘s $18MM salary would just about get the Lakers there, but finding a club willing to take on that deal without sending out any salary in return will be challenging, to say the least. Waiving and stretching Deng’s contract next July and dumping Jordan Clarkson‘s $12.5MM salary is probably a more realistic path for the Lakers to get into that range for two max deals.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Northwest Division

November 15th, 2017 at 3:47pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Northwest division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Northwest teams:

Portland Trail Blazers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,456,026
Projection: Over the cap

The Trail Blazers reduced their future commitments by trading Allen Crabbe to Brooklyn earlier this year, and Ed Davis will come off the books next summer, giving Portland a chance to avoid the luxury tax in 2018/19. However, their $110MM+ in guaranteed salaries for next season doesn’t include a contract for Jusuf Nurkic, who will be a restricted free agent. If they want to re-sign Nurkic and don’t dump another salary, the Blazers figure to return to tax territory.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,233,979
Projection: Over the cap

The Timberwolves’ salary commitments look a lot different now than they did a year ago. Gorgui Dieng‘s lucrative new extension went into effect this summer, and Andrew Wiggins‘ max deal will begin in 2018. Throw in substantial salaries for offseason acquisitions Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, and Taj Gibson, and Minnesota projects to be well over the cap for 2018/19. With a potential extension for Karl-Anthony Towns looming for 2019/20, the Wolves won’t have cap space for the foreseeable future if they intend to keep their current core group together.

Denver Nuggets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $89,903,848
Projection: Over the cap

The Nuggets’ guaranteed salaries for 2018/19 currently sit around $90MM, but even based on a $101MM cap projection, we shouldn’t expect the team to have any room. There are too many factors working against it.

For one, Denver will face a tough decision on Nikola Jokic — exercising his ultra-affordable $1.6MM team option would put him on track to become an unrestricted free agency in 2019, so the club may opt to decline that option and make him a restricted free agent. In that scenario, a new contract for Jokic would push the Nuggets over the cap.

Even if they simply pick up Jokic’s cheap option, the Nuggets will also have to consider player options for Kenneth Faried ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM). Arthur is a good bet to exercise his option, and even though Faried hasn’t always loved his role in Denver, it’s possible he’ll pick up his too, since it features a pretty player-friendly salary.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $88,907,222
Projection: Over the cap

Carmelo Anthony‘s early termination option for 2018/19, worth nearly $28MM, is a major X factor for the Thunder, whose guaranteed team salary would increase from approximately $89MM to nearly $117MM if Anthony opts in. Taking into account Carmelo’s age, his production trends, and the current state of the free agent market, it makes sense for him to play out the final year of his current deal, so we’re penciling in Oklahoma City as a probable over-the-cap team.

Even if Anthony opts out and Paul George doesn’t re-sign, OKC could only get up to about $8.8MM in cap room. That’s barely more than the projected value of the mid-level exception, so even in that scenario, the Thunder may simply remain over the cap to avoid renouncing all their exceptions.

Utah Jazz
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $67,839,543
Projection: Up to approximately $28MM in cap room

Only six Jazz players have fully guaranteed salaries for 2018/19, while seven others have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries, or are restricted free agents. That gives Utah some flexibility if the team wants to maximize its cap room.

However, retaining Thabo Sefolosha for his reasonable non-guaranteed salary of $5.25MM would cut into the Jazz’s space, as would re-signing Rodney Hood and/or Dante Exum. Realistically, unless Utah decides to only hang onto those six fully guaranteed players and make major changes around them, we shouldn’t expect the club to enter July 2018 armed with a ton of cap room.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Early Look At MVP Race

November 15th, 2017 at 11:14am CST by Luke Adams

We’re only about a month into the NBA season, but a handful of strong contenders for this season’s Most Valuable Player award are already emerging. While there’s plenty of time for players like last year’s MVP Russell Westbrook to pick up the pace and insert themselves into this season’s race, AJ Neuharth-Keusch of USA Today and Dennis Chambers of Basketball Insiders have identified the players who look like the strongest candidates so far.

Neuharth-Keusch and Chambers agree that James Harden (Rockets) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) have been the top two candidates for MVP, in some order. The two stars are the only players in the NBA averaging more than 30 points per game, and Harden is also leading the league with 10.3 assists per contest. Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, is averaging a double-double of his own with 10.3 RPG.

LeBron James (Cavaliers) is also a consensus pick on Neuharth-Keusch’s and Chambers’ early lists, which makes sense, despite the fact that James’ Cavs are off to a sluggish start. The four-time MVP is playing some of the best basketball of his career, with 28.1 PPG, 8.8 APG, and an incredible .586 FG% while averaging an NBA-high 38.1 minutes per contest.

From there, the lists diverge. Neuharth-Keusch – whose list features input from fellow USA Today scribes Sam Amick, Jeff Zillgitt, and Michael Singer – rounds out the top five with Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks) and DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans).

Both New York and New Orleans were projected to be sub-.500 teams this season, but are off to solid starts behind the incredible play of their respective big men. Porzingis is averaging an impressive 29.5 PPG and shooting 41.0% on three-pointers, while Cousins is stuffing the stat sheet with 28.2 PPG, 14.0 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.6 BPG, and 1.6 SPG.

As for Chambers, he weighs team success a little more heavily, filling out his list with Stephen Curry (Warriors), Kevin Durant (Warriors), and Kyrie Irving (Celtics). Golden State leads the Western Conference with an 11-3 record, while Boston has an NBA-best 13-2 mark.

What do you think? Do you have an early pick for 2017/18 MVP? Do you think a player not mentioned above will become a part of the conversation in a big way within the next few weeks or months? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Southeast Division

November 15th, 2017 at 9:37am CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Southeast division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Southeast teams:

Miami Heat
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $117,444,952
Projection: Over the cap

Since the start of the 2016 offseason, the Heat have handed out lucrative long-term contracts to Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, and Josh Richardson. It will be Tyler Johnson‘s deal that will be the toughest to swallow in 2018/19 though. Because of the way his 2016 offer sheet from the Nets was structured under the old CBA, Johnson’s cap charge will jump from about $5.88MM this season to $19MM+ next year.

Barring major cost-cutting moves, the Heat will be well over the cap in 2018/19, and may end up surpassing the luxury tax line too.

Charlotte Hornets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $116,377,251
Projection: Over the cap

The Hornets have six players on their roster set to make at least $12MM apiece in 2018/19, including two – Nicolas Batum and Dwight Howard – earning about twice that. Most of those contracts won’t be easy to move, and Charlotte won’t want to dump the more team-friendly salaries from that group, like Kemba Walker‘s $12MM expiring deal. As such, we can expect the Hornets to head into the 2018 offseason as an over-the-cap club.

Washington Wizards
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $115,896,497
Projection: Over the cap

Despite the fact that John Wall‘s super-max extension won’t go into effect until 2019/20, the Wizards have nearly $116MM committed to just eight players next season. Even if the team were to trade a non-core player on an eight-figure salary, such as Ian Mahinmi or Marcin Gortat, it wouldn’t be enough to create meaningful cap space.

Orlando Magic
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $78,180,655
Projection: Up to approximately $19.5MM in cap room

The summer of 2018 will be a good test for just how attached the Magic’s new front office is to the old regime’s top draft picks. Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton will be restricted free agents, and if Orlando intends to retain both players – or even just Gordon – the team’s cap room will disappear. Letting Gordon and Payton walk and waiving Shelvin Mack and his non-guaranteed salary would get the Magic up to nearly $20MM in cap space.

Atlanta Hawks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $56,232,915
Projection: Up to approximately $41MM in cap room

The Hawks’ maximum available cap space for 2018 will hinge in part on whether Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala decide to pick up their respective player options. Those options being exercised would reduce the Hawks’ max cap room to about $31MM, which would still be more than enough to make a major addition or two — or to take on a couple undesirable contracts along with picks or young players, if Atlanta isn’t ready yet to accelerate its rebuilding timeline.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Central Division

November 14th, 2017 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Central division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Central teams:

Milwaukee Bucks
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $104,034,259
Projection: Over the cap

The Bucks’ recent acquisition of Eric Bledsoe, which added another $15MM to the team’s books for next season, all but guarantees that Milwaukee won’t have any cap space available in 2018. Moving another contract or two could change that, but if the Bucks intend to re-sign Jabari Parker to a long-term deal, they’ll likely end up much closer to the luxury tax line than to the salary cap threshold.

Detroit Pistons
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $101,685,313
Projection: Over the cap

The NBA’s most recent salary cap projection estimated a $101MM cap for 2018/19, which would put the Pistons right around the threshold. Don’t expect Detroit to try to sneak below that line and create space though — if they intend to re-sign Avery Bradley, the Pistons figure to remain well over the cap next summer.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $75,902,175
Projection: Up to approximately $21MM in cap room

Since LeBron James returned to Cleveland in 2014, the Cavaliers have spent more money than any other NBA team on player salaries and tax payments, so it’s somewhat surprising to see the club with only $76MM in guaranteed commitments for 2018/19.

Of course, the only reason the Cavs’ projected team salary is so modest is because James and his $35MM+ player option aren’t included. Neither is Isaiah Thomas, another free-agent-to-be. And neither is Iman Shumpert, who seems like a good bet to exercise his $11MM player option. If any of those players return to the Cavs, the team’s cap space will disappear quickly. If Cleveland actually ends up with $21MM in available cap room, the squad will look a whole lot different next season.

Chicago Bulls
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $46,648,020
Projection: Up to approximately $43MM in cap room

The Bulls, who don’t have many pricey long-term commitments on their books, could actually create up to about $52MM in cap room, but we’re adding Zach LaVine‘s cap hold to their team salary, since the club has been adamant about re-signing LaVine, one of the key pieces of this year’s Jimmy Butler trade.

Still, that leaves the Bulls with a ton of flexibility, as Nikola Mirotic‘s $12.5MM team option is the only other salary that could cut into the team’s cap room significantly. Based on recent events in Chicago, it’d very surprising if that Mirotic is still a Bull at that price – or at all – a year from now.

Indiana Pacers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $39,913,044
Projection: Up to approximately $54MM in cap room

In order to get up to $54MM in cap room, the Pacers would have to move on from several key players from this year’s squad. Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, and Al Jefferson all have partially guaranteed salaries. Thaddeus Young and Cory Joseph have player options. Lance Stephenson and Joe Young have team options. The odds that none of those players will be back are incredibly slim.

Even if the Pacers’ available cap room is ultimately much more modest than the maximum figure suggests, the team is in a pretty good spot. The Thaddeus Young and Joseph contracts aren’t toxic, and Indiana is in full control of all the other players with options or without full guarantees. That will give the Pacers the opportunity to retain the deals that are solid values and dump the rest.

Previously:

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Atlantic Division

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Signed Now Won’t Be Trade-Eligible This Season

November 14th, 2017 at 1:31pm CST by Luke Adams

Due to CBA rules, players signed between now and the end of the 2017/18 season won’t become eligible to be traded during the season.

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement allows players who sign contracts as free agents to be traded three months after signing, or on December 15, whichever comes later. For certain players, that restriction extends to January 15.

Because the league moved up its trade deadline by two weeks for 2018, any player who signs an NBA contract on November 9 or later can’t be traded this season, since three months won’t have passed by the time the February 8 deadline arrives.

Although this restriction has technically been in place since last Thursday, no players have signed new NBA contracts since then, so it doesn’t yet apply to any specific players. But any player who signs a contract now won’t be eligible to be included in trades on or before February 8 — he’ll become trade-eligible after the 2017/18 season.

The one exception is for two-way players, since the same trade rules don’t apply to them. A player who signs a two-way contract can be moved 30 days after signing his deal. So far though, we haven’t seen any NBA teams complete a trade involving a two-way player.

For a full breakdown of which players are currently facing trade restrictions, check out the following lists:

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: 2017 Draft Class

November 13th, 2017 at 7:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

This year’s top overall draft pick, Markelle Fultz, caught the Sixers’ injury bug at the start of his rookie campaign. Fultz is sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder injury, continuing Philadelphia’s tough-luck run with lottery picks.

Despite Fultz’s injury, the 2017 draft class has quickly made its mark. Numerous first-round selections have made major impacts in just a few short weeks.

The second overall pick, Lonzo Ball, may have a broken jumper (31.4%) but he’s lived up to his billing as a prolific distributor (7.4 APG) and surprisingly strong rebounder (6.8 RPG). Ball’s teammate, power forward Kyle Kuzma, has already proven to be a steal with the No. 27 overall pick. Kuzma leads the draft class in scoring (15.2 PPG) and field-goal percentage (51.6%) while tying Ball for third in rebounding (6.8 RPG).

Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen took full advantage of additional playing time due to the Nikola Mirotic–Bobby Portis dust-up. He ranks third among 2017 draft picks in scoring (14.5 PPG) and first in rebounding (7.8 RPG).

The third overall pick, Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, saw his role expand in the wake of Gordon Hayward‘s season-ending injury. He’s provided immediate help (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG). The rebuilding Hawks have thrown power forward John Collins into the fire and he’s responded by ranking second to Markkanen in rebounding (7.3) and second in blocks (1.15) while also delivering double-digit scoring (1o.2 PPG).

Ball is far from the only guard in the draft class to show poise beyond his years. Jazz combo guard Donovan Mitchell (13.9 PPG) has earned a starting spot. Dennis Smith (14.8 PPG, 4.9 APG) has been one of the Mavericks’ few bright spots. The Kings’ De’Aaron Fox (11.9 PPG, 5.2 APG) looks like their long-term solution at the position.

Several others, such as the Suns’ Josh Jackson and the Knicks’ Frank Ntilikina, have shined at times.

This brings us to our question of the day: Which 2017 draft pick has impressed you the most during the first few weeks of the season? What has made him a standout?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to hearing your opinion on this subject.

Current NBA Waiver Order

November 13th, 2017 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Waiver claims don’t happen very often in the NBA. During the 2016/17 league year, for instance, only six players were claimed off waivers. So far in 2017/18, four players – David Nwaba, Nicolas Brussino, Kay Felder, and DeAndre Liggins – have been claimed off waivers.

Nwaba, Brussino, Felder, and Liggins have something in common; they’re all on minimum salary contracts. While a player earning more than the minimum can also be claimed off waivers, not every NBA team has the ability to claim any waived player. In fact, there are only a few instances when teams can claim a player who is earning more than the minimum salary, which is one reason why waiver claims rarely happen.

A team placing a waiver claim on a player earning more than the minimum must have one of the following to accommodate the player’s salary:

Cap room
A trade exception
A disabled player exception

As I noted on Sunday, a player like Mindaugas Kuzminskas is a candidate to be claimed, but his odds of being snatched up before reaching free agency would be much higher if he were on a minimum salary contract. Teams will be reluctant to take on his $3MM salary, and only half the NBA’s teams are even eligible to place a claim on him.

When considering which teams might place a claim on a waived player, it’s also worth noting that waiver priority is determined by record — the worst teams get first dibs on each waived player. Prior to December 1, waiver order is currently determined by last year’s record. That will change in a few weeks, but for now, a team’s 2016/17 record determines its waiver priority.

Taking all the details above into account, the current NBA waiver order is listed below. We’ve also noted which teams can place a claim on a player earning more than the minimum salary. If two teams that finished 2016/17 with identical records place a waiver claim on the same player, their head-to-head records would determine which team gets priority. If they split their head-to-head matchups, a coin flip determines which team gets priority.

Here’s the full list of teams, in order of current waiver priority:

Brooklyn Nets ($3,396,169; cap room)
Phoenix Suns ($8,948,187; cap room)
Los Angeles Lakers
Philadelphia 76ers ($15,120,873; cap room)
Orlando Magic
Minnesota Timberwolves
(tie) New York Knicks ($2,381,964; TPE)
Sacramento Kings ($4,254,216; cap room)
Dallas Mavericks ($12,526,578; cap room)
- Note: Mavericks would need to renounce their exceptions to use cap room.
New Orleans Pelicans ($3,853,931; TPE)
Charlotte Hornets
Detroit Pistons
Denver Nuggets
Miami Heat
(tie) Portland Trail Blazers ($12,969,502; TPE)
(tie) Chicago Bulls ($11,457,398; TPE)
- Note: Bulls could get up to $15,046,009 in cap room by renouncing exceptions.
Indiana Pacers ($6,126,114; cap room)
(tie) Milwaukee Bucks ($5,000,000; TPE)
Atlanta Hawks
(tie) Memphis Grizzlies ($3,408,520; TPE)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,811,114; TPE)
(tie) Los Angeles Clippers ($7,273,631; TPE)
(tie) Toronto Raptors ($11,800,000; TPE)
(tie) Utah Jazz
Boston Celtics ($8,406,000; DPE)
Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors

Salary information from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post.

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