Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Pelicans’ Playoff Chances

Making the playoffs in the Western Conference was a challenging task last season and it should be an even harder feat after several teams improved this offseason.

The Warriors brought back their core in addition to bringing in Nick Young and they are likely to take home the conference’s top seed. The Spurs, Rockets, and Thunder should find themselves jocking for position behind them. The Clippers and Jazz each lost their best player in free agency, but both seem poised to reach the playoffs, albeit with a lower seed than they had last season. The Nuggets (adding Paul Millsap) and Wolves (trading for Jimmy Butler) made upgrades with the hopes of pushing the Grizzlies or Blazers for a playoff spot.

The Pelicans hope to surpass at least three of the aforementioned teams and sneak into the playoffs, but they might not have enough shooting or defense to reach that goal, as Thomas Rende of NBAMath explains. Rende notes that only 11 teams since the 2012/13 campaign have won more than 45 games (a number that should put a team in contention for a playoff birth) while ranking in the bottom third of the league in three-point percentage. Out of those teams, only two (the 2012/13 Nuggets and the 2014/15 Thunder) didn’t rank in the top 10 in points allowed per 100 possessions.

In his piece, which is a must read, Rende explains how New Orleans is ill-equipped to drastically improve its outside shooting, meaning a playoff birth appears unlikely.

What do you think? Can the Pelicans muster enough offense to make the playoffs in the ultra-competitive Western Conference or will their lack of shooting plague the team and relegate them to the lottery once again? 

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Five Notable Guards Still Available In Free Agency

Most of the unrestricted free agents on the market this month have found a new home or remained with their previous team. There are still some big names and players with extensive resumes seeking employment in the league. Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the notable UFAs who still haven’t signed contracts.

Some of the teams that might be seeking guard help include the Warriors, Heat, Hornets, Hawks, Trail Blazers and Timberwolves, all of whom could be in the market for a bargain-basement veteran to fill their third point guard spot.

The Knicks could use some veteran help at that spot, though they could acquire a starter as part of any deal involving Carmelo Anthony. The Bucks met with Derrick Rose before he opted to join the Cavaliers, so it’s possible they’ll sign another proven floor leader.

Let’s take a look at a handful of well-known guards that have yet to get a satisfactory offer:

  • Deron Williams – Once considered one of the top point men in the league, Williams is in the twilight of his career. Williams,  33, was still good enough to start 40 games with the Mavericks last season before reaching a buyout agreement and joining the Cavaliers. He averaged 13.1 PPG and 6.9 APG with Dallas, with those figures dropping to 7.5 PPG and 3.6 APG in a more limited role with Cleveland. He didn’t have the desired impact off the bench in postseason play, averaging just 4.3 PPG and 2.1 APG in 14.6 MPG over 18 appearances. He hasn’t generated much buzz on the market.
  • Ty Lawson – Lawson saw action in 69 games with the Kings last season, including 25 starts, and averaged 9.9 PPG and 4.8 APG in 25.1 MPG. His PER was an above-average 15.42. In fact, the 29-year-old Lawson has posted an above-average PER in all but one of his seasons. Lawson was reportedly close to signing with China’s Shanxi Brave Dragons but is still mulling all of his options.
  • Ian Clark – Rotation players on a championship team normally get snapped up pretty quickly on the free agent market. Clark has drawn interest but he’s been disappointed by the money offered. Clark appeared in 77 games for the Warriors and averaged 6.8 PPG while shooting 37% from long range. He’s received minimum-salary offers from multiple teams, including the Timberwolves, but is hoping to get a better deal.
  • Monta Ellis – The former Pacers combo guard entered the market when the club waived him earlier this month, even though he had a guaranteed salary of $11.227MM. Indiana will use the stretch provision to absorb the cap hit over five years. Ellis will have to sit out the first five games wherever he goes, as he received a five-game  suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy.  Previously one of the league’s most prolific scorers, Ellis saw his playing time drop last season to 27.0 MPG. He averaged 8.5 PPG and 3.2 APG, the lowest totals since his rookie season of 2005/06 with the Warriors.
  • Jason Terry – The ‘Jet’ turns 40 in September but he wants to play two more seasons. He was a rotation player for the Bucks last season, averaging 4.1 PPG and 1.3 APG in 18.4 MPG. The career 38.0% 3-point shooter is a valued veteran presence in any locker room. A return to Milwaukee is possible now that Rose is out of the picture.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 7/22/17 – 7/29/17

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

Community Shootaround: Kyrie’s Future In Cleveland

After five days of non-stop Kyrie Irving trade rumors, Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert tried to slam on the brakes at a press conference this afternoon.

The purpose of the event was to introduce newly appointed GM Koby Altman, but the subject inevitably turned to Irving and the trade demand he reportedly made during a private meeting with Gilbert earlier this month.

Gilbert refused to acknowledge that Irving wants to be traded and wouldn’t say if he and Altman plan to grant the request if it is true. He then threw the media a curveball, saying he expects to have Irving on the floor when training camp opens in September.

“Right now, Kyrie Irving is under contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers for two or three years, depending on the last year,” Gilbert said, as Irving holds a player option for 2019/20. “As of now, he’s one of our best players, and sure, we expect him to be in camp.”

Prepare for an overflow media turnout for the first day of camp if that happens. Irving’s desires to get out of Cleveland and his simmering social media feud with LeBron James have been on public display since the subject of that meeting with Gilbert was made public last Friday.

According to reports, Irving has named the Spurs, Heat, Timberwolves and Knicks as the places he would like to go. The Cavaliers have been inundated with calls inquiring about an Irving deal, and ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote on Monday that the team is “acting as if a trade is almost inevitable.”

However, Gilbert and the Cavs have no obligation to honor Irving’s request. If they can’t find an acceptable deal, they could hand onto to Irving through the summer and bring him into camp just as Gilbert suggested.

Our question for today is: How do you think that would turn out? Could Kyrie and LeBron bury the hatchet and combine their talents for another trip to the NBA Finals? Or would the inner strife tear the team apart?

Please take to the comments section and share your thoughts on this topic. We look forward to what you have to say.

Bulls, Blazers, Raptors Hold Largest Trade Exceptions

When an over-the-cap NBA team sends out more salary than it receives in a given trade, that team can generally create a traded player exception. As we explain in our glossary entry, a traded player exception serves as a way for a team to acquire talent without using cap room to do so.

Traded player exceptions last for one year from the time they’re created, and can be used to absorb a player’s contract in a trade without sending out any salary in return. Trade exceptions can’t be combined with another exception or another contract, but they have $100K worth of wiggle room. So, a team with a $9.9MM TPE could trade for a player earning $10MM without any outgoing salary involved in the deal.

In recent weeks, a handful of teams – including the Hornets, Clippers, and Cavaliers – have seen trade exceptions created last July expire without being used. However, none of those TPEs was substantial. All of this year’s biggest TPEs are still available, though some are more likely to be used than others.

Here’s the current list of the top 10 traded player exceptions available around the NBA, along with each TPE’s expiration date:

  1. Chicago Bulls: $15,311,329 (6/22/18)
  2. Portland Trail Blazers: $12,969,502 (7/25/18)
  3. Toronto Raptors: $11,800,000 (7/13/18)
  4. Toronto Raptors: $7,630,000 (7/14/18)
  5. Los Angeles Clippers: $7,273,631 (6/28/18)
  6. Milwaukee Bucks: $5,000,000 (2/23/18)
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder: $4,936,529 (11/1/17)
  8. Cleveland Cavaliers: $4,837,500 (1/7/18)
  9. New Orleans Pelicans: $3,517,200 (2/20/18)
  10. Oklahoma City Thunder: $2,550,000 (7/6/18)

While some of these TPEs are quite sizable, there’s a good chance that most of them will go unused. Many of the clubs on this list are near or above the luxury tax threshold, and will be reluctant to acquire an expensive player without dumping any salary as part of the deal.

The Blazers, Raptors, Clippers, Bucks, Thunder, and Cavaliers all fit that bill, though some of those clubs may be willing to bite the tax-penalty bullet, while others could wait until next July when some contracts expire to use their respective TPEs.

As for the Bulls, no team has a more significant TPE than the one Chicago created as part of June’s Jimmy Butler trade. But that exception is somewhat hollow at the moment — the Bulls only have $73.25MM in guaranteed salaries on their 2017/18 cap, so the club could actually create an even greater chunk of cap room by renouncing its trade exception, along with its other cap holds and exceptions. Still, there’s no reason to do that now. That TPE could come in handy later if the Bulls re-sign Nikola Mirotic and much of that potential cap space disappears.

The full list of current NBA trade exceptions can be found right here.

Checking In On The Designated Veteran Extension

Although the NBA and NBPA didn’t agree to make many significant changes to the league’s rules and regulations when they negotiated their most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, the new CBA did introduce a new wrinkle that allows star players to receive higher salaries.

The new Designated Veteran Extension allows players who meet a certain set of criteria to sign contracts with a starting salary of up to 35% of the cap instead of just 30%. These players generally have to make at least one All-NBA team, can’t change teams after signing their rookie extensions, and have between seven and nine years of NBA experience.

Designated Veteran Extensions couldn’t be signed until July 2017, so now that the new league year is underway and the new CBA has taken effect, we’re starting to get a sense of how these extensions will work. The sample size is still very small, but here’s what we know so far:

Three of four players eligible for Designated Veteran Extensions have signed them.

Having met the required criteria, Stephen Curry, James Harden, John Wall, and Russell Westbrook were the four players eligible this offseason for the new kind of contract. Curry inked his quickly, becoming the first player to do so as a free agent. He’ll receive a five-year contract starting in 2017/18 that will be worth more than $200MM.

Harden and Wall followed suit in recent weeks. Both players have two years remaining on their respective contracts, but were permitted to sign Designated Veteran Extensions that added four new years to their existing deals. We won’t know the precise value of those extensions until the salary cap is set for the 2019/20 league year, but they currently project to be worth upwards of $170MM over four years.

Westbrook is the lone holdout so far, but there has been no indication yet that he’s unwilling to sign an extension. Last summer, the MVP-to-be didn’t sign his new deal with the team until August. Westbrook has until opening night this year to re-up with the Thunder, and the club sounds confident that he’ll do so. If he does, that would mean all four DVE-eligible players would sign new extensions.

Multiple DVE candidates have been traded.

The Designated Veteran Extension has had an interesting side effect so far. Three players who were candidates to become eligible for a new super-max extension have been traded before getting a chance to gain that eligibility.

DeMarcus Cousins was the first to be dealt — he would have become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension with the Kings if he’d earned an All-NBA nod this season, but was dealt to the Pelicans in February, eliminating the possibility for such a deal.

Meanwhile, last month, Jimmy Butler and Paul George were both traded despite the fact that they’d have become DVE-eligible in the summer of 2018 if they’d earned spots on one of next year’s All-NBA teams.

Not all of those players and teams were in exactly the same boat. George, for instance, seemed to want out of Indiana whether or not a Designated Veteran Extension would be on the table a year from now. However, Cousins and Butler seemed more invested in remaining with their current teams to see whether or not that opportunity at a super-max deal panned out.

In those instances, it’s possible that the Kings and Bulls were simply ready to rebuild, and decided the time was right to cash in on their stars. However, it’s worth considering whether the looming possibility of a Designated Veteran Extension played a part in those teams’ decisions. Unlike Curry, Westbrook, and Harden, players like Cousins and Butler aren’t perennial MVP candidates, so their teams may have been less eager to commit to a contract that paid $40MM+ annually.

For instance, had Cousins remained on the Kings and become eligible for a DVE this offseason, the franchise would have been in a tough spot — if the team was uncertain about committing that sort of money to Cousins and made a lesser offer, he may have viewed it as a sign of disrespect and demanded a trade, knowing that he wouldn’t be giving up a chance to max out his earnings since his current team was unwilling to give him that DVE. At that point, Sacramento’s trade leverage would have been reduced significantly.

It’s still too early to know exactly how the Designated Veteran Extension will affect player movement long-term, but based on the early returns, it appears it will work as intended for the very best players in the NBA, while perhaps further complicating the contract situations for the second- or third-tier stars.

Hoops Rumors’ 2017 NBA Free Agent Tracker

With the 2017/18 NBA league year well underway, and news of contract agreements still coming in, Hoops Rumors is here to help you keep track of which players are heading to which teams this offseason. To that end, we present our Free Agent Tracker, a feature we’ve had each year since our inception in 2012. Using our tracker, you can quickly look up deals, sorting by team, years, salary, and a handful of other variables.

A few notes on the tracker:

  • Some of the information you’ll find in the tracker will reflect reported agreements, rather than finalized deals. As signings become official, we’ll continue to update and modify the data.
  • Similarly, contract years and dollars will be based on what’s been reported to date, so in many cases those amounts will be approximations rather than official figures. Listed salaries aren’t necessarily fully guaranteed either.
  • A restricted free agent who agrees to or signs an offer sheet will be included in the tracker, but the team won’t be specified until his original club matches or passes on the offer sheet, in order to avoid confusion.
  • Two-way contracts and draft pick signings aren’t included in the tracker.
  • Click on a player’s name for our full report on his deal.
  • If you’re viewing the tracker on mobile, be sure to turn your phone sideways to see more details.

Our 2017 Free Agent Tracker can be found anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features,” and it’s also under the “Tools” menu atop the site. It will be updated throughout the offseason, so be sure to check back for the latest info. If you have any corrections, please let us know right here.

Our lists of free agents by position/type and by team break down the players who have yet to reach contract agreements.

Sports Bloggers, Hoops Links Are Back

After a short hiatus during the opening weeks of free agency, our weekly Hoops Links series is finally returning. Expect the next installment this Thursday.

Now that the dust has started to settle on a wild offseason and we don’t have to worry about our writers getting distracted by pesky Paul George trades, we can all get back to focusing on what really matters: scouring the internet for funny analogies that bloggers have come up with.

Every week, we collect all of the best original content we find throughout the blogosphere and shine a spotlight on it here. It doesn’t matter if it’s serious or light-hearted, if it’s a comprehensive oral history about a key moment in NBA history or an open letter to Greg Oden’s former neck beard. If it’s an engaging, original story, it deserves to be shared.

To be included in Hoops Links Vol. 11, submit your best links to Austin Kent over Twitter (@AustinKent). You may or may not bribe him with rare images of Shareef Abdur-Rahim but be forewarned that such nefarious appeals to nostalgia are only 85% effective.

Take a look back at the highlights from the 2016/17 season:

Hoops Links Vol. 1: Unpopular Raptors, Kobe GIFs, More
Hoops Links Vol. 2: The Next MJ, McGee’s Reign, More
Hoops Links Vol. 3: Traditional Big Men, Puppies, More
Hoops Links Vol. 4: Conspiracy Theories, Broken Mechanics, More
Hoops Links Vol. 5: Shirley Temple Lies, Milkshake Theft, More
Hoops Links Vol. 6: Coleman Flashbacks, Biedrins Flashbacks, More
Hoops Links Vol. 7: Fan Loyalty, International Coups, More
Hoops Links Vol. 8: Rick Carlisle Fan Fiction, Emojis, More
Hoops Links Vol. 9: Time Travel, North Korean Diplomacy, More
Hoops Links Vol. 10: The Process, The Godfather, More

Weekly Mailbag: 7/17/17 – 7/23/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

What are the chances that Kyrie Irving is traded to the Heat? And what would that trade have to look like? — Reid Parrish

Miami is one of four preferred destinations [along with San Antonio, New York and Minnesota] that Irving submitted to Cavs owner Dan Gilbert. Although Cleveland has no obligation to honor that list, it does bring the Heat into the conversation. Start with point guard Goran Dragic, whose $17MM salary for next season is close to Irving’s $18,868,625. Dragic is six years older than Irving and not on the same All-Star level, so Miami would have to sweeten the deal quite a bit. Justise Winslow is an obvious possibility, along with Josh Richardson or rookie Bam Adebayo. None of them moves the Cavs any closer to a title in what could be LeBron James‘ final season in Cleveland, so a third team would probably be necessary to get Irving to Miami.

What’s the most likely scenario for the Cavs with the turmoil going on? Will they still be strong enough to dethrone the Warriors with Irving gone? — Greg Dizon

There’s no way to tell until we know what they’re able to get back in an Irving trade, and we’re in the very early stages of that process. But this isn’t like the situation the Pacers faced with Paul George, where he was a year away from free agency and it was widely believed he plans to sign with the Lakers. Irving is under contract for two more seasons and has a player option for 2019/20. Whoever gets him will have an opportunity to keep him for the rest of his career, especially if it’s one of the teams on his list. So the Cavaliers should be able to get what they want in return, whether it’s veterans to make another run at a title or young players and picks to help them rebuild if LeBron James leaves next summer. That said, Cleveland is having an awful offseason so far, watching George and Jimmy Butler get traded elsewhere and settling for Jose Calderon and Jeff Green in free agency. With the Celtics signing Gordon Hayward, there’s no guarantee that the Cavs are headed to a fourth straight NBA Finals.

Since the end of their season, all members of the Mavericks’ front office (Mark Cuban, Donnie Nelson and Rick Carlisle) spoke of their view that Nerlens Noel was a part of their “young core,” suggesting that they would match any offer. Do you think the lack of an offer sheet has more to do with the assumption of the Mavs’ willingness to match or a true lack of interest? — Jonathan Dennis

Life is tough for restricted free agents. Most of the offer sheets they receive get matched, and teams don’t want to tie up resources on a fruitless effort in the middle of free agency. Look at what happened with the Nets and Otto Porter. They made a max offer of $106.5MM over four years on July 4th, which was a Tuesday. The offer sheet couldn’t be officially extended until the moratorium ended two days later. Despite announcing in advance that they planned to match any deal, the Wizards took almost the full 48 hours to reach an official decision, making their announcement on Saturday night. Porter then had two days to take his physical, and Washington had two days after that to send the results to the league. So the Nets didn’t have their resources freed up to complete the DeMarre Carroll deal until nine days after they made the offer to Porter. Things have slowed down now, but few teams have the cap space left to give Noel an offer that would make the Mavericks think twice. He’ll probably get a deal done soon, but he’ll have to decide if he wants to take a long-term contract on Dallas’ terms or sign for one year and try unrestricted free agency next summer.

Submit Your Questions For This Weekend’s Mailbag

We at Hoops Rumors love interacting with our readers. This is why we provide an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in our mailbag feature, which is posted on Sundays.

Have a question regarding trades, free agent rumors, the salary cap, the NBA draft, or the top storylines of the week? You can e-mail them here: hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com. Feel free to send emails throughout the week, but please be mindful that we may receive a sizable number of questions and likely won’t get to all of them.

If you missed out on any past mailbags and would like to catch up, you can view the full archives here.