Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Charlotte Hornets

June 22nd, 2017 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets continued to yo-yo back and forth under Steve Clifford‘s watch in 2016/17. Since Clifford took the reins as the team’s head coach four years ago, Charlotte has posted a pair of strong seasons, winning 43 games in Clifford’s first year and 48 in 2015/16. The Hornets have followed those impressive showings with disappointing ones, however, winning just 33 games in 2014/15 and 36 last season.

The franchise likely expects to rebound once again in 2017/18, having kicked off the offseason by acquiring eight-time All-Star Dwight Howard. While a bounce-back season is possible, there are several questions the Hornets will need to address this offseason in order to return to playoff contention. Let’s dive in…

1. Was Dwight Howard a worthwhile investment?

In the wake of this week’s trade for Howard, Clifford expressed optimism about the veteran center’s ability to regain his All-Star form. Clifford was an assistant in Orlando and then in Los Angeles when Howard was in his prime with the Magic and Lakers, so he knows him as well as anyone.

Expecting Howard to become an All-Star again may be aiming a little too high, but it’s not as if the 31-year-old was ineffective for Atlanta last season. He comfortably averaged a double-double – as he has every year since entering the league – with 13.5 PPG and 12.7 RPG, and his .633 FG% was a career best.

The Hornets also didn’t give up much to acquire Howard and to move up 10 spots in the second round of the draft, parting with Miles Plumlee and his pricey contract, plus Marco Belinelli. Belinelli is a solid, affordable rotation piece for any team, but he only has one year left on his contract, so moving him isn’t a long-term blow for Charlotte.

While it remains to be seen whether Howard can move the needle at all for the Hornets, the price to land him wasn’t exorbitant by any means, so a roll of the dice makes sense.

2. Will the Hornets be active in free agency at all?

One factor that made it easier for the Hornets to add more than $4MM in salary to their 2017/18 cap in the Howard swap was the team’s lack of projected cap room. The addition of Howard – along with the NBA’s new cap projection of $99MM – seals the deal on Charlotte being an over-the-cap team. The Hornets already have $106.5MM+ in guaranteed salaries on their books, and that’s without taking into account their first-round pick, their free agents, or Ramon Sessions‘ team option.

With no cap room to spend, the Hornets could use their mid-level exception to add a free agent or two, but the MLE is projected to start at about $8.4MM this year. The tax line is expected to come in at about $119MM, so Charlotte will have to be careful about using its entire MLE — doing so will bring the team dangerously close to going into luxury tax territory.

Without much spending power at their disposal, the Hornets figure to avoid bidding on free agents in the top two or three tiers, focusing instead on smaller pieces who could help add depth to their bench.

3. Are more trades coming?

Since free agency isn’t a real option for the Hornets to add an impact player, it’s possible that the team could return to the trade market. The team will have five players earning over $12.5MM in 2017/18, and that list doesn’t even include star point guard Kemba Walker ($12MM), so there is no shortage of contracts that could be moved to accommodate a deal.

Unfortunately for Charlotte, most of the team’s highest-paid players, such as Nicolas Batum ($22.4MM), Marvin Williams ($13.17MM), and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13MM) aren’t exactly coming off outstanding years, and won’t have a ton of trade value. Those three players have overlapping skill sets, so if Charlotte could move one and perhaps pick up some backcourt help, it would make sense to do so.

The Hornets may also be able to spare a frontcourt piece if they look to deal, though it’s not clear yet how those minutes will be divided with Howard, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky all in the mix. Those three players should be able to coexist, but things could get more crowded up front if Charlotte uses its No. 11 overall pick on a big man such as Zach Collins, which would increase the odds of a trade.

4. What should the Hornets do with the 11th overall pick?

The general consensus leading up to the draft was that there was a group of 10 players atop most draft boards, with the Hornets unlikely to land one of those players at No. 11. However, in recent days, a number of rising prospects have snuck into the top 10 in various experts’ mock drafts, opening the door for an intriguing prospect to fall to the Hornets.

At ESPN, for instance, Chad Ford has Malik Monk slipping to the Hornets at No. 11. Monk is a better shooter than Donovan Mitchell and a better athlete than Luke Kennard, two other guards Charlotte figures to consider at No. 11 if they’re available. Meanwhile, Jonathan Givony’s latest mock for DraftExpress.com has French point guard Frank Ntilikina falling out of the top 10 and all the way to No. 15. If Ntilikina is available at No. 11, I expect the Hornets would seriously consider him.

5. Who will back up Kemba Walker?

Like the Wizards with John Wall, the Hornets had a hard time identifying a reliable backup for the best player on their roster last season. Ramon Sessions looked like a respectable choice, but he struggled for the Hornets, making just 38.0% of his field goals and averaging a career-low 6.2 PPG. I’d be very surprised if Charlotte exercises its $6.27MM club option on him.

The draft could actually provide the Hornets with its most logical path to a backup point guard, but guys like Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. are good bets to be off the board, and may not be ready to take on a No. 2 role behind Walker anyway. Monk and Mitchell can handle the ball, but they aren’t traditional point guards, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be available either.

While a trade for a veteran backup is possible, the Hornets could save their assets by pursuing a free agent like Shaun Livingston or Darren Collison — as long as they don’t get too expensive. As noted above, Charlotte doesn’t have a whole lot of flexibility to spend, so anything above an annual salary of about $5-6MM may be out of the team’s price range.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Dwight Howard ($23,500,000)
Nicolas Batum ($22,434,783)
Marvin Williams ($13,168,750)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13,000,000)
Cody Zeller ($12,584,270)
Kemba Walker ($12,000,000)
Jeremy Lamb ($7,000,000)
Frank Kaminsky ($2,847,600)
Total: $106,535,403

Player Options

None

Team Options

Ramon Sessions ($6,270,000)
Total: $6,270,000

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Johnny O’Bryant ($1,524,305)¹
Briante Weber ($1,471,382)²
Treveon Graham ($1,312,611)
Total: $4,308,298

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

No. 11 overall pick ($2,904,480)
Brian Roberts ($1,471,382)
Christian Wood ($1,471,382)
Total: $5,847,244

Trade Exceptions

Troy Daniels TPE ($1,666,470) — Expires 7/12/17

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$12,886,728

The Hornets’ guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, total $111,886,728, putting the team well over the cap. So, barring a significant change in direction, Charlotte is unlikely to dip below the cap this summer.

Footnotes:

O’Bryant’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Weber’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Updated Maximum Salary Projections For 2017/18

June 22nd, 2017 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Last month, we published maximum salary projections based on a $101MM salary cap. However, on Wednesday, the NBA informed teams that the salary cap projection for 2017/18 is now $99MM. The difference is fairly modest, but it’s enough to affect what maximum salary contracts would look like. For instance, a player like Chris Paul could earn more than $205MM on a five-year max with the Clippers with a $101MM cap. With a $99MM cap, his maximum earnings slip a little to below $201MM.

While maximum salary contracts start at the same amount no matter where a player signs, players re-signing with their own teams can get larger raises and more years than if they sign elsewhere.

Additionally, players with less than seven years of NBA experience can only get a maximum salary worth 25% of the cap, while veterans with more experience can sign deals that start at 30% or 35% of the cap. So, the figures below reflect the various salaries that players like Otto Porter (less than six years), Gordon Hayward (7-9 years), and Paul (10+ years) could get on max contracts.

You can check out our story from March for more details on maximum salary contracts. For now, here’s what new max deals will tentatively look like this summer based on a $99MM cap:

A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Year	6 years or less	7-9 years	10+ years
2017/18	$24,750,000	$29,700,000	$34,650,000
2018/19	$26,730,000	$32,076,000	$37,422,000
2019/20	$28,710,000	$34,452,000	$40,194,000
2020/21	$30,690,000	$36,828,000	$42,966,000
2021/22	$32,670,000	$39,204,000	$45,738,000
Total	$143,550,000	$172,260,000	$200,970,000

A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Year	6 years or less	7-9 years	10+ years
2017/18	$24,750,000	$29,700,000	$34,650,000
2018/19	$25,987,500	$31,185,000	$36,382,500
2019/20	$27,225,000	$32,670,000	$38,115,000
2021/22	$28,462,500	$34,155,000	$39,847,500
Total	$106,425,000	$127,710,000	$148,995,000

Five Key Offseason Questions: Boston Celtics

June 22nd, 2017 at 9:56am CST by Luke Adams

Not every Celtic fan is in love with Danny Ainge‘s patient, meticulous approach to stockpiling assets and building the team’s roster, but that strategy began to pay major dividends in 2017. The Celtics made a strong second-half push to nab the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, then took advantage of their pick swap with the Nets and some lottery luck to grab the No. 1 pick in the draft as well.

Of course, each of those accomplishments comes with a caveat. Despite their spot atop the Eastern Conference, the Celtics didn’t come anywhere close to knocking off the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals, and will need to add another impact player to their roster to help close that gap. As for the No. 1 overall pick, Boston became the first team in recent NBA history to trade that top selection in advance of the draft, sending it to Philadelphia for this year’s No. 3 pick and a future first-rounder.

Even after a 53-win season and a pair of playoff series victories, Ainge continues to turn current present-day assets into future pieces. Will that approach change at all this summer?

Here are five key questions facing the Celtics as the offseason begins:

1. What will the Celtics do with the third overall pick?

When the Celtics first completed their trade with the Sixers earlier in the week, there seemed to be two schools of thought for what Boston had in mind for its next move — the team would either select Kansas forward Josh Jackson, or use its newly-acquired picks in a trade for a star.

Several days later, it’s not clear that the Celtics will take either route. If the club keeps its pick, there’s no guarantee that Jackson will be the selection — many experts believe Boston may be leaning toward Jayson Tatum instead, and Jonathan Isaac has even been mentioned as a possibility. There have also been reports suggesting that the Celtics could trade down again, perhaps with an eye on a player like Dennis Smith Jr.

The Celtics are sitting in a great spot, and at this point there’s no real wrong answer for the club — whatever happens, Boston should come out of draft night with either a young potential star or a player who is already a star.

2. Is this the right time for the Celtics to cash in some trade chips?

Several teams are reportedly interested in moving into the top four in an effort to land Jackson, making the Celtics an ideal trade partner — there’s no guarantee Jackson would be available at No. 4, but with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball considered strong favorites to be the first two picks, the No. 3 pick may be the spot for the former Jayhawk.

The Bulls and Knicks are said to have legit interest in Jackson, and each of those teams has been exploring trade scenarios involving its stars — Jimmy Butler in Chicago and Kristaps Porzingis in New York. Either player would be a terrific fit in Boston, though Porzingis, in particular, would be a perfect addition for the C’s. He’d be capable of providing the sort of rim protecting the club has been missing, without compromising short-term cap flexibility.

Still, if Ainge perceives the asking price for those players to be too high, he’s under no real pressure to make a move. Pundits and fans may be anxious for the Celtics to push the Cavs in 2017/18, but Ainge certainly recognizes that he has the team well-positioned for the next five or 10 years — not just the next two or three. There’s no urgency to go all-in within the next couple years, particularly with LeBron James not yet showing any signs of slowing down.

There are potential moves the Celtics could make that would improve the current roster without compromising the team’s ability to contend for the next decade, but striking a balance between those two goals will be the key.

3. What can the Celtics do in free agency?

Historically, the Celtics haven’t frequently landed impact players in free agency, but that changed last summer when the team poached Al Horford, one of the top veterans on the market, from Atlanta. A year later, Boston may try to repeat that feat, having been consistently linked to pending free agents like Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin.

Creating enough cap room for a maximum salary offer to a player such as Hayward or Griffin will require at least one or two additional roster moves, but that shouldn’t be a significant roadblock if the Celtics are able to get a commitment from a star free agent.

Given Griffin’s injury history and the fact that he’s not an elite rim protector, Hayward looks to me like the better fit in Boston. However, if the Celtics end up landing a forward like Paul George or Jimmy Butler around the time of the draft, it’s possible they won’t pursue Hayward quite so aggressively. And even if they do go after Hayward and/or Griffin, the Celtics have no assurances — both players will be coveted by many potential suitors, and could earn more money by re-signing with their own respective 51-win teams.

4. Will 2016’s first-rounders arrive stateside for 2017/18?

When considering the Celtics’ collection of assets, their current players and future draft picks generally get most of the attention, but the team’s draft-and-stash prospects shouldn’t be overlooked. Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic, last year’s 16th and 23rd overall picks, respectively, had very strong seasons overseas, and appear capable of being long-term pieces for the Celtics, assuming they’re not traded.

Both Yabusele and Zizic reportedly have interest in joining the C’s for the 2017/18 season, so Boston will have to decide whether the time is right to bring them over. Neither player will be expensive, but even their modest cap hits could compromise the Celtics’ ability to offer a maximum salary contract to a free agent, and if Boston doesn’t believe the youngsters are ready to contribute right away, it might make more sense to wait another year to start the clock on their four-year rookie contracts.

I still expect we’ll see at least one – and perhaps both – of those two draft-and-stash prospects arrive in Boston this year, but the decision is a complicated one and will require an agreement from both sides.

5. Which rotation players are keepers?

Outside of Isaiah Thomas, an MVP candidate in 2016/17, and perhaps Al Horford, the Celtics don’t have any All-Stars on their current roster. The team should be looking to increase its star power, either in the form of a current star or a young player with the potential to become one. But in order to have a shot at a great player or two, Boston may have to determine which of its “good” players are expendable.

For instance, Kelly Olynyk, a reliable piece of Boston’s frontcourt last season, is eligible for restricted free agency. If the Celtics intend to pursue an elite free agent, there’s a good chance they’ll have to renounce Olynyk’s $7.7MM+ cap hold to create the necessary room.

If the Celtics go the trade route to land a star, some combination of Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier would likely be headed in the other direction. Based on their current ability to contribute, their future potential, and their contract situations, which of those players will Boston view as most expendable?

I suspect that out of that group, the Celtics will prioritize keeping Brown. But if C’s get deep into trade talks with the Bulls, Pacers, Knicks, or another team, and the inclusion of Brown is a sticking point for that club, Ainge will have a tough decision to make.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Celtics financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Al Horford ($27,734,405)
Avery Bradley ($8,808,989)
Jae Crowder ($6,796,117)
Isaiah Thomas ($6,261,395)
Jaylen Brown ($4,956,480)
Marcus Smart ($4,538,020)
Terry Rozier ($1,988,520)
Demetrius Jackson ($650,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $61,733,926

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Tyler Zeller ($8,000,000)²
Jordan Mickey ($1,471,382)³
Demetrius Jackson ($734,750) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $10,206,132

Restricted Free Agents

Kelly Olynyk ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $7,735,033 cap hold)
Total: $7,735,033

Cap Holds

Amir Johnson ($15,600,000)
Jonas Jerebko ($9,500,000)
No. 3 overall pick ($5,645,400)
James Young ($2,803,507)
Guerschon Yabusele ($2,247,480)
Ante Zizic ($1,645,200)
Gerald Green ($1,471,382)
Total: $40,293,809

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $26,177,629

For our max cap room calculation, we assumed the C’s will keep their seven guaranteed contracts plus Jackson (whose non-guaranteed portion is cheaper than an empty roster slot), and accounted for cap holds for the No. 1 pick, Yabusele, Zizic, and an empty roster spot. That works out to $72,822,371, which doesn’t quite leave enough room for a max salary for someone like Gordon Hayward. However, Boston could create more cap space by stashing Yabusele and/or Zizic for another year, or by making a trade.

Footnotes:

Jackson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Zeller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 2.
Mickey’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after either July 1 or July 15 (conflicting information available).

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Links Vol. 10: The Process, The Godfather, More

June 22nd, 2017 at 9:00am CST by Austin Kent

Tired of mock drafts yet? I didn’t think so. Still, it’s important to pace one’s self on a fine day such as this. Before the day is done there will be 60 new NBA players and half that many Woj bombs (we hope), so take a fleeting moment to read about the NBA landscape in general before zeroing in on obscure international sleeper picks and combine results.

To be featured in next week’s Hoops Links (where we prance about telling everybody on the internet why we love the NBA blogosphere so much), submit your favorite articles for nomination. Connect with Austin Kent on Twitter (@AustinKent) as our Thursday publication date approaches and tell us why you think your content deserves a shout out in this most heralded of link dumps.

The offseason is a trying time for sports fans as the balance between passion and rationality can be difficult to strike. For South of the 6ix, Adam Corsair used recent confusion surrounding Kyle Lowry and the Raptors as a telltale example of why fans should be leery of unsubstantiated rumors. Until a decision is made and deal is done, there are too many variables at play for fans to take things at face value all the time.

Author: Adam Corsair – @ACorsair21
Rating: 8 out of 10 Grains of Salt
Link: Kyle Lowry free agent rumors.

A pair of news reports that came out this week suggest that the Spurs could be considering a home run swing in free agency this summer, and Jesus Gomez of Pounding the Rock has broken down exactly what that might look like. The combination of Pau Gasol opting out and the club supposedly shopping Danny Green frees up cap space, and a few other moves could get the Spurs into a scenario where they could offer max money.

Author: Jesus Gomez – @JejeGomez_PtR
Rating: 8 out of 10 Pennies Pinched
Link: Spurs could make big free agent pitch.

Around this time five years ago, the Sixers swung a deal for Andrew Bynum. This, Michael Levin of Liberty Ballers writes, was the true start of “The Process.” In the years since, Sam Hinkie has come and gone, assets have come and gone, and now the franchise approaches the NBA Draft with more optimism than they’ve had since the Allen Iverson Era. Here’s a a celebratory reminder of all that Philly fans have been through and why it was worth it.

Author: Michael Levin – @Michael_Levin
Rating: 8 out of 10 Bowling Injuries
Link: The Process, in summary.

The Suns were wise to turn down an offer for DeAndre Jordan this week, but only because the price was too high. Given more reasonable terms, an acquisition of the three-time All-NBA big man could be wise. For Valley of the Suns, Lucas McLean breaks down scenarios in which Phoenix could make a play for the center and what that could mean.

Author: Lucas McLean – @LucasMcLean
Rating: 7 out of 10 Airplane Emojis
Link: DeAndre Jordan could fit with Suns.

Hockey fans saw an expansion draft unfold in Las Vegas last night, prompting Shameek Mohile of Piston Powered to think about what the Pistons might do in a similar situation. Notably unprotected throughout the hypothetical exercise were Reggie Jackson and Jon Leuer, while the prioritization of those protected was telling in and of itself.

Author: Shameek Mohile – @ShamShammgod
Rating: 8 out of 10 Marc-Andre Fleury Knights Jerseys
Link: The Pistons in an expansion draft.

When the Timberwolves waived Nikola Pekovic this week it brought an official end to an era. In honor of the hulking big man, John Meyer of Canis Hoopus published a streamable video-filled recap of the Godfather’s NBA tenure. It wasn’t always graceful, but that doesn’t mean Pek’s stint in Minnesota didn’t have its fair share of highlights and laughs.

Author: John Meyer – @TheDailyWolf
Rating: 9 out of 10 Brandon Knight Body Slams
Link: Celebrating Nikola Pekovic’s career.

The Nets were wise to capitalize on their valuable cap space and land D’Angelo Russell, who has the sort of potential star power that Brooklyn’s roster lacked. Ti Windisch of The Step Back writes that the 2015 second overall pick will be given every opportunity to succeed with the new club, and that the organization finally appears to have a plan.

Author: Ti Windisch – @TiWindisch
Rating: 8 out of 10 Inappropriate Ravens
Link: D’Angelo Russell could thrive with Nets.

The staff at Mavs Moneyball is well aware that LeBron James could hit the open market next offseason and isn’t wasting any time brainstorming potential ways to lure the biggest of fish to the Mavs. Consider the plethora of “Dear LeBron James” letters penned by the blog and let us know which you think would be the most effective.

Author: Rebecca Lawson – @BeccaAfterSix
Rating: 8 out of 10 Elevator Pitches
Link: Mavericks writers recruit LeBron James.

I’ll admit, it’s easy to pile on the Warriors these days, but that doesn’t mean there’s any logic behind it. Count Ron Moskovitz of Golden State of Mind the latest to be offended by the lack of respect Stephen Curry gets from a significant portion of the basketball community. The scribe puts a Dave McMenamin tweet on blast while reminding us all that the back-to-back Warriors MVP is a genuine “bet-the-house franchise changing solo talent.” Y’know, he’s not wrong.

Author: Ron Moskovitz – @Hotspurrrr
Rating: 9 out of 10 Supervillains
Link: Steph Curry disrespected, again.

Until Paul George is formally traded away from the Pacers or he officially signs with the Lakers next summer, there will be a whirlwind of speculation about possible trade suitors. Minh Dao of Rip City Project has capitalized on the growing notion that the All-Star will be on the move sooner rather than later, making the case for the Trail Blazers as a viable option.

Author: Minh Dao – @BeyondTheArcBTA
Rating: 8 out of 10 ESPN Trade Machines
Link: Blazers should trade for Paul George

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors’ 2017 NBA Mock Draft

June 20th, 2017 at 12:47pm CST by Hoops Rumors

With the 2017 NBA draft just two days away, it’s time to reveal Hoops Rumors’ own mock draft. Arthur Hill and Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors have tackled the 2017 first round, alternating picks and providing their thoughts and rationale for each selection.

Our mock draft doesn’t feature trades, outside of the ones that have already been finalized, such as the Sixers‘ acquisition of the No. 1 overall pick. It could be an active draft night, so Thursday’s night board may end up looking much different than what we’ve predicted here. After checking out our picks, be sure to head to the comments section to weigh in with your own thoughts, opinions, and predictions.

Let’s dive in…

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Markelle Fultz, PG (Washington)

AH: This is the only sure thing on what is shaping up to be an unpredictable night. The Sixers gave up a valuable asset to acquire Fultz in hopes of forming a new young Big Three with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. It’s hard to find a scout that isn’t impressed by Fultz, who can score, defend, rebound and run the offense.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG (UCLA)

LA: The Lakers landing the No. 2 pick in last month’s draft lottery looked like a dream scenario for Ball and his father LaVar, who wanted Lonzo to land in Los Angeles all along. The Lakers have made Ball sweat it out since then, with Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox both reportedly receiving serious consideration. But I think Ball’s playmaking ability and potential star power will be too much for the team to pass up.

3. Boston Celtics: Josh Jackson, SF (Kansas)

AH: The Celtics will be getting plenty of phone calls from teams that would like a shot at Jackson, Fox, or Jayson Tatum. Assuming Boston keeps the pick, the safest bet is probably Jackson, a super-athletic defender who is versatile enough to handle either forward position.

4. Phoenix Suns: Jayson Tatum, SF (Duke)

LA: The Suns have no shortage of talented guards, led by Devin Booker, and dedicated last year’s two lottery picks to a pair of bigs in Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. This time around, it makes sense for Phoenix to add a player like Tatum, who looks like a future 20-PPG scorer on the wing.

5. Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox, PG (Kentucky)

AH: Sacramento fills its most pressing need without having to trade up. Fox is blessed with lightning-like speed that he uses on both offense and defense, and he’ll be the best point guard to wear a Kings uniform in many years. He cemented his reputation when he outplayed Ball in the NCAA Tournament, showing he has the skill to not only be a good NBA player but possibly a future All-Star.

6. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac, F (Florida State)

LA: Orlando’s new front office, led by former Raptors GM Jeff Weltman and former Bucks GM John Hammond, values length, athleticism, and versatility. Of the players available in this spot, Isaac is the one that most clearly checks all those boxes, making him a good fit for the Magic.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Malik Monk, G (Kentucky)

AH: Bench scoring and three-point shooting were major issues this season for the Wolves. Kentucky’s Monk can help solve both of those problems, stretching defenses as well as anyone in the draft. Monk is a bit of a tweener at 6’3″, but if used properly he can be a very dangerous weapon in Minnesota.

8. New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina, PG (France)

LA: With Monk off the board here, the Knicks are in good position to nab a point guard, and I suspect they may lean toward Ntilikina over Dennis Smith Jr.. Ntilikina, who doesn’t turn 19 until December, won’t make an impact immediately, but his long-term potential is tantalizing if the Knicks are willing to be patient.

9. Dallas Mavericks: Dennis Smith Jr., PG (North Carolina State)

AH: This is an excellent draft for teams in need of point guards. Dallas takes the fifth one available and gets a possible future star in Smith. Another elite player on a poor college team, Smith has drawn comparisons to Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury as offensively gifted point guards who don’t do enough other things to help teams win. Dallas would be the perfect environment for a prospect like that, as coach Rick Carlisle would tutor Smith on how to become a smart and effective NBA player.

10. Sacramento Kings: Lauri Markkanen, PF (Arizona)

LA: Having scooped up their point guard of the future at No. 5, the Kings can turn their attention to the frontcourt with this pick. Markkanen’s ability to play the stretch four makes him an intriguing potential complement to Willie Cauley-Stein up front for Sacramento.

11. Charlotte Hornets: Donovan Mitchell, SG (Louisville)

AH: The Pistons reportedly covet this 6’3″ combo guard out of Louisville, whose draft stock has risen considerably since the season ended. If Mitchell winds up in Charlotte, the Hornets will be getting a defensive specialist with enough of an offensive game to contribute right away. He could be an effective backup to Kemba Walker next season and eventually carve out a larger role in the Hornets’ backcourt.

12. Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard, SG (Duke)

LA: While I don’t expect the Pistons to let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope get away in free agency, Kennard would provide a nice insurance policy. Even with KCP in the mix, Detroit’s roster isn’t stacked with three-point shooters, so Kennard would give the team another threat from the outside. He’s not a complete two-way player – and may never be – but he’s capable of making an immediate impact on offense.

13. Denver Nuggets: Zach Collins, F/C (Gonzaga)

AH: The freshman from Gonzaga saw limited playing time during the season — just 17.2 minutes per game — but showed off his skills as the Zags made a run to the NCAA title game. At 6’10”, he can rebound, block shots and shoot from the outside, making him a promising frontcourt partner for Nikola Jokic. Trade rumors have swirled around Kenneth Faried for a couple of years, and Collins would be a nice replacement if Denver ships Faried out of town.

14. Miami Heat: OG Anunoby, F (Indiana)

LA: Pat Riley and the Heat aren’t likely to worry much about a player’s ability to contribute in his rookie season if his long-term potential is strong. That makes Miami a possible landing spot for Anunoby, who is expected to miss at least the first month or two of the 2017/18 season, if not more, as he recovers from a knee injury. He and Justise Winslow would make life very difficult for perimeter scorers facing the Heat.

15. Portland Trail Blazers: Harry Giles, C (Duke)

AH: Giles came to Duke last season as one of the most heralded players in the nation, but medical problems with both knees make him a risky proposition for whoever drafts him. With three picks in the first round, Portland is in a good position to gamble. With luxury tax concerns looming over next season, the Blazers are going to have to deal away some established players, and Giles, if he stays healthy, is a good candidate to take their place.

16. Chicago Bulls: Justin Jackson, SF (North Carolina)

LA: The Bulls’ approach to the draft may hinge somewhat on what happens – or at least what the team expects to happen – with Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade. If Wade doesn’t return, or if the Bulls decide to trade Butler, Jackson is the sort of player who could assume some scoring responsibilities. His offensive game – particularly his three-point shot – improved greatly during his junior year at UNC.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Ike Anigbogu, C (UCLA)

AH: Milwaukee has a nice collection of young talent, but there’s not a physical, rebounding, rim-protecting center on the roster. That’s a perfect description of Anigbogu, who would bring an interior toughness that the Bucks currently lack. He may never be a scorer, but he adds an important component as Milwaukee looks to continue its climb up the Eastern Conference standings.

18. Indiana Pacers: John Collins, PF (Wake Forest)

LA: With the Pacers potentially entering a rebuilding and asset-accumulating phase, it makes sense for the club to add the best player available, regardless of position. At this point in the draft, that might mean nabbing Collins, who looks capable of developing into a reliable rebounder and shot-blocker up front.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jarrett Allen, C (Texas)

AH: The Texas freshman fits very well with the direction that the league is headed. At 6’11”, he’s not a physical player, but he gets up and down the court very well and will get a lot of points from pure athleticism. The Hawks will need frontcourt help even if they re-sign Paul Millsap, and Allen would be a good investment in the future.

20. Portland Trail Blazers: Terrance Ferguson, SG (Australia)

LA: There’s a good chance the Blazers ultimately decide to trade this pick, but if they keep it, it would be a nice spot to roll the dice on someone like Ferguson. Reports have suggested that Ferguson is all over the place on teams’ draft boards, but at his best, he looks like an explosive athlete capable of contributing on both ends of the court.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Justin Patton, C (Creighton)

AH: Oklahoma City will pay more than $40MM next season — and nearly $43MM in 2018/19 — to the combination of Stephen Adams and Enes Kanter. The wise move would be to trade one of them, and Patton would provide a viable replacement if that happens. The seven-footer out of Creighton averaged nearly 1.5 blocks per game during his lone season in college and showed speed and athleticism that would fit in well with OKC.

22. Brooklyn Nets: Andzejs Pasecniks, C (Spain)

LA: With two first-round picks in hand and no rush to contend immediately, the Nets can afford to invest in an international player who may not arrive stateside right away. Pasecniks wouldn’t even be the most notable Latvian big man in town, but he has a solid skill-set for a seven-footer, and has seen his stock rising as of late.

23. Toronto Raptors: Isaiah Hartenstein, F/C (Lithuania)

AH: If Toronto re-signs Kyle Lowry this summer, it will be difficult to keep both Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson. That creates an opening for a player like Hartenstein, who brings a soft scoring touch to go with his seven-foot size. Playing in Germany, he has been on a professional strength and conditioning program and is a solid 250 pounds, making him more ready for the rigors of the NBA than some of his contemporaries.

24. Utah Jazz: Jawun Evans, PG (Oklahoma State)

LA: The Jazz were overloaded at the point guard position in 2016/17, but George Hill and Shelvin Mack are free agents, while Dante Exum and Raul Neto are entering contract years. Presumably, not all of those players are in Utah’s long-term plans, so adding a talented ball-handler like Evans wouldn’t necessarily create a logjam.

25. Orlando Magic: Bam Adebayo, C (Kentucky)

AH: Like the Thunder, Orlando is top-heavy with big men, with Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic combining to make more than $29MM over each of the next two seasons. The new management team will want to cut some of that salary, creating a need for a player like Adebayo. A bit undersized at 6’9″, the freshman showed a surprising scoring touch at Kentucky, although he needs to expand his shooting range. He has no problem doing the dirty work — blocking shots, setting screens and running the floor to get baskets in transition.

26. Portland Trail Blazers: Semi Ojeleye, F (SMU)

LA: If the Trail Blazers keep all three of their first-rounders, which seems unlikely, at least one of their picks will probably be a draft-and-stash prospect. However, there aren’t many highly-regarded international players in this draft class, so I have Portland opting instead for Ojeleye, a talented scorer and shooter who could make an immediate impact and provide depth if the club moves one of its more expensive swingmen.

27. Brooklyn Nets: Ivan Rabb, F/C (California)

AH: Brooklyn has shown a willingness to gamble in the first round, and Rabb, once a highly regarded prospect, is a gamble worth taking. The 6’10” sophomore might have been a lottery pick a year ago, but decided to spend another season at California and hurt his cause with a disappointing performance. The Nets need more big men who can score after trading away Thaddeus Young before the start of last season. Rabb was an effective post-up scorer in college and could be a late-round gem for Brooklyn.

28. Los Angeles Lakers: T.J. Leaf, PF (UCLA)

LA: The Lakers’ current frontcourt, which features players like Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr., Ivica Zubac, and Timofey Mozgov, lacks a player capable of really stretching the floor. Leaf, who made an impressive 46.6% of his three-pointers in his first and only college season, has that ability — and joining the Lakers would reunite him with his UCLA teammate and point guard Lonzo Ball.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Frank Jackson, G (Duke)

AH: Manu Ginobili may retire, Patty Mills is a free agent and Tony Parker may not be physically ready for the start of next season. The Spurs need backcourt help, especially if their dream of signing Chris Paul doesn’t pan out. Jackson is a nice start, a 6’3″ player who can help at either guard spot and scores well off the dribble.

30. Utah Jazz: Caleb Swanigan, F/C (Purdue)

LA: Swanigan is capable of banging in the low post, having averaged 12.5 RPG last season at Purdue, and can also make an outside shot — he converted 44.7% of his threes in 2016/17. I like Swanigan’s game and think he could be one of the more undervalued players in 2017’s draft class. He’d be a nice depth addition for the Jazz, who may trade Derrick Favors this year or lose him in free agency next year.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

June 20th, 2017 at 10:43am CST by Dana Gauruder

The New Orleans Pelicans had the appearance of a budding powerhouse two seasons ago. Carried by superstar big man Anthony Davis, they made the playoffs in 2015 with a young core of players. Later that spring, they fired Monty Williams and replaced him with Warriors assistant and offensive guru Alvin Gentry with the expectation of making deep playoff runs.

Heading into the summer of 2017, the Pelicans are at a crossroads. A combination of injuries, questionable roster decisions, and underperforming players have led to two consecutive losing seasons.

The surprising and bold move to acquire DeMarcus Cousins at the trade deadline didn’t pay immediate dividends. But the combination of Cousins and Davis makes the Pelicans one of the most intriguing teams in the league.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Can the Pelicans sign unrestricted free agent Jrue Holiday?

The Pelicans have made it clear they want to re-sign Holiday, who has been highly productive when he’s been able to stay out of the trainer’s room. Holiday hasn’t played more than 67 games in the past four seasons, but averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.3 APG in 2016/17.

All indications suggest the Pelicans believe Holiday is the point guard who can keep both Davis and Cousins happy in the Twin Towers attack.

The Pelicans hold Holiday’s Bird rights, allowing them to offer more money and years than any other club. They’ll still have stiff competition for his services. It has been reported that the Mavericks covet Holiday and will make him a substantial offer, and other suitors figure to be in the mix as well.

There are several other starter-level floor leaders on the market if Holiday decides to go elsewhere. Losing Holiday wouldn’t necessarily be disastrous, but the Pelicans would prefer to have continuity at that all-important spot.

2. What type of approach will GM Dell Demps take this offseason?

Demps will be in a win-at-all-costs mode. There was plenty of speculation that Demps and Gentry would lose their jobs after a second consecutive disappointing season. The Cousins trade, which many NBA experts viewed as a coup for Demps and the Pelicans, bought the regime a little more time.

While Demps and Gentry were given a reprieve by owner Tom Benson, their status remains tenuous. They can’t afford another slow start, so the pieces have to be in place to get things turned around quickly.

Demps figures to actively pursue free agents and trades for proven players who can make an immediate impact.

3. Are the Pelicans truly committed to making the Davis-Cousins combination work, or will one of them be dealt?

Gentry believes he can maximize Davis’ and Cousins’ talents with the benefit of a training camp. Davis is locked up contractually at least through the summer of 2020, when he can exercise his player option. Cousins is an entirely different case.

The former King is entering his walk year and has yet to tip his hand on whether he plans to stay in New Orleans long-term. The Pelicans will certainly have to max out Cousins to keep him and that would result in three gargantuan contracts on their books if they re-sign Holiday too.

If the Pelicans aren’t in playoff contention by midseason, a blockbuster deal could be necessary at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t even be a total shock if it happens this offseason should Cousins’ camp make it clear that he plans to go elsewhere in free agency.

The caveat is that Demps, being on the hot seat, would have to get some starters as well as draft picks in return. If the Celtics, for example, wanted Cousins now, they’d have to give players who could jump into the rotation (Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, etc.) along with a high draft pick or two.

4. Other than a point guard, what is the Pelicans’ biggest need?

New Orleans finished 19th in three-point percentage last season and must improve that ranking going forward. The Pelicans need superior spot-up shooters in order to create space for their two big men.

It would help if Quincy Pondexter could return to good health after having his last two seasons wiped out by knee injuries. Pondexter is a solid three-point threat, but it’s wishful thinking to expect much from him after being out for so long.

Instead, the Pelicans will likely have to use their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions (assuming they retain Holiday) to get a shooter or two on the open market. They’ll obviously be targeting shooting guards and small forwards, with perimeter threats like C.J. Miles and Jodie Meeks as logical targets.

5. The Pelicans traded away their first-round pick in the Cousins deal. Should they make any attempt to move into the first round?

It seems unlikely that the Pelicans will do much on draft day. They could get involved in a three-way deal in which they would acquire a rotation player. It’s also conceivable, though quite unlikely, that they could flip Cousins if they get an overwhelming offer that includes a likely future lottery pick and multiple established players.

Otherwise, New Orleans will be content to select a developmental player in the second round (No. 40 overall pick) and get down to more important business when the free-agent bell rings on July 1st.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Davis ($23,775,506)
DeMarcus Cousins ($18,063,850)
Solomon Hill ($12,236,535)
Omer Asik ($10,595,505)
E’Twaun Moore ($8,445,024)
Alexis Ajinca ($4,961,798)
Quincy Pondexter ($3,853,931)
Tim Frazier ($2,000,000)
Cheick Diallo ($1,312,611)
Total: $85,244,760

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jordan Crawford ($1,709,538)¹
Axel Toupane ($1,471,382)
Quinn Cook ($1,312,611)²
Total: $4,493,531

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Jrue Holiday ($16,929,777)
Dante Cunningham ($5,658,675) — Player option declined
Donatas Motiejunas ($1,471,382)
Total: $24,059,834

Trade Exceptions

Buddy Hield TPE ($3,517,200) — Expires 2/20/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $13,308,395

Adding three cap charges for empty roster spots to New Orleans’ nine guaranteed contracts results in a total team salary of $87,691,605. The cap space created in that scenario is minimal, so the Pelicans are more likely to retain one or two of their players on non-guaranteed contracts and to keep Holiday’s cap hold on the books as they attempt to re-sign him. That would mean staying over the cap.

Footnotes:

Crawford’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Cook’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($25,000) after July 5. Guarantee increases to $100,000 after July 25.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

June 19th, 2017 at 10:48pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Suns showed only modest improvement in their first full season under coach Earl Watson, going from 23 wins to 24. There are reasons to hope for a brighter future, but the Phoenix front office has a lot of work to do on a roster stocked with a combination of very young and very old players, with little in between.

Here are five key questions facing the Suns as that project begins:

1. Anybody need an extra guard?

Devin Booker‘s path to stardom was shorter than anyone expected, and he punctuated his rise to the NBA elite with a 70-point barrage at Boston in March. The second-year guard has been a starter since early in his rookie season and led the Suns in scoring this year at 22.1 points per game. However, his performance has made Brandon Knight expandable, and Knight hasn’t handled it well. He didn’t appear in a single game after the All-Star break and told the team when asked to play in March that back spasms were preventing him from taking the court.

Knight still has three seasons and nearly $43.9MM on a contract he signed in 2015 before the Suns realized what they had in Booker. It won’t be easy to unload a deal of that size, especially given Knight’s reduced production last year. On the other hand, he’s only 25 and has a history of being an explosive scorer, so there may be takers if the Suns don’t expect much in return. A strong first season from Tyler Ulis makes Knight even more expendable.

Another option is dealing Eric Bledsoe, a productive but injury-prone talent. Bledsoe, 27, will be the Suns’ highest-paid player next season ($14.5MM) and in 2018/19 ($15MM) and would probably fetch a nice collection of assets to help with the team’s youth movement.

2. Are the Suns happy with the fourth pick?

This weekend’s draft shakeup may not be the only major move in the top five. According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, the Suns have talked to the Lakers and Celtics about moving up to draft UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball or Kansas forward Josh Jackson (though Phoenix radio host John Gambadoro said there haven’t been talks between the Suns and Celtics about the No. 3 pick).

If the Suns don’t trade up and Ball and Jackson don’t slip to No. 4, they can either field offers from teams that want De’Aaron Fox or just take Jayson Tatum or Jonathan Isaac. Tatum is a ready-made scorer who could fill the small forward position for the next decade. Isaac has steadily risen up draft boards and has the size and skill to handle either forward position.

3. What about the two power forwards the Suns drafted last year?

The Suns swung a deal with Sacramento in 2016 to get a second lottery pick, which brought both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender to Phoenix. Chriss had the greater impact in his rookie year, appearing in all 82 games, starting 75, and averaging 9.2 points per night. Bender faced a tougher transition, averaging just 13.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game, and missing a chunk of the season with an ankle injury.

Phoenix has the luxury of being patient with both players, but drafting a forward this year could impact playing time, especially for Bender, and make at least one of them expendable somewhere down the road.

4. What are all these old guys doing here?

The Suns posted the worst record in the Western Conference and the second-worst mark in the entire NBA. That’s not a situation in which minutes and valuable cap room should be devoted to two 34-year-olds in Tyson Chandler and Leandro Barbosa and a 31-year-old Jared Dudley. Ronnie Price, 33, also spent some time on the roster.

Chandler, who will turn 35 before next season starts, would seem much more at home on a contender. However, he still has a hefty contract that pays him $13MM next year and $13.585MM in 2018/19, making teams reluctant to deal for him. Chandler says he enjoys being a mentor for young players, but he’s still seeing plenty of playing time, appearing in 47 games this season and averaging nearly 28 minutes per night.

Barbosa, who chose the Suns in free agency last summer, is due to make $4MM next season, but only $500K is guaranteed before July 3rd, so his days in Phoenix may be numbered. Dudley, another 2016 free agent signing, is under contract for more than $19.5MM over the next two seasons.

5. How long before the Suns contend again?

The best strategy for Phoenix is to keep adding talent through the draft. Booker is a legitimate building block, and Chriss appears to be as well. Alex Len and Alan Williams, both 24, are two free agent big men who could be retained without breaking the bank.

The Suns only have about $7MM in available cap room, although that number could rise closer to $25MM if they part ways with Barbosa and Len. If Phoenix does try to play the free agent market this summer, it should skip the over-30 demographic and concentrate on players more in line with its youth movement.

There’s no need to rush things. The top seven teams in the West look like long-term playoff regulars, and the ones that contended for the eighth spot are all further along in development than Phoenix. If the Suns continue to add young talent, the playoffs could be a realistic goal by the end of the decade.

Phoenix is still paying for its past mistakes. Management apparently believed the team was closer to contention than it really was and overpaid for Knight, Chandler, Dudley and Barbosa. Phoenix needs to cut loose as many of those contracts as possible this summer and fully commit to rebuilding.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Eric Bledsoe ($14,500,000)
Brandon Knight ($13,618,750)
Tyson Chandler ($13,000,000)
Jared Dudley ($10,000,000)
Dragan Bender ($4,468,800)
T.J. Warren ($3,152,931)
Marquese Chriss ($3,073,800)
Devin Booker ($2,319,360)
Tyler Ulis ($1,312,611)
Leandro Barbosa ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $65,946,252

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Leandro Barbosa ($3,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Elijah Millsap ($1,524,305)
Derrick Jones ($1,312,611)
Total: $6,336,916

Restricted Free Agents

Alex Len ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $12,059,053 cap hold)
Alan Williams ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $13,730,435

Cap Holds

No. 4 overall pick ($5,090,040)
Ronnie Price ($1,471,382)
Total: $6,561,422

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $28,332,478

The Suns have nine players on fully guaranteed contracts. If they were to waive their non-guaranteed players and renounce all their free agents, they’d also have to account for cap holds for their first-round pick and two empty roster spots, creating a total team salary of $72,667,522. That would be enough room to make a play for a maximum-salary restricted free agent, but not enough to fit a max contract for a veteran with seven or more years of NBA experience.

Footnotes:

Barbosa’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 3

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

June 19th, 2017 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

Few NBA franchises have been more successful in the 21st century than the Mavericks, who finished at .500 or better for 16 consecutive seasons, earning 15 playoff berths, 13 postseason series wins, and a championship during that stretch.

However, the 2016/17 campaign was a disappointment, as the Mavs missed the playoffs by a wide margin, finishing with a 33-49 record. It looks like it’s time for a rebuild in Dallas, but that decision is complicated by the fact that longtime star Dirk Nowitzki likely only has another year or two left in him. After years of building contending rosters and pursuing win-now upgrades, will the Mavs be willing to patiently retool their roster as Nowitzki’s career winds down?

Here are five key questions facing the Mavs as the offseason begins:

1. Will the Mavs ask Dirk Nowitzki to take a pay cut?

A year ago, the Mavericks voluntarily gave Nowitzki more money that the two sides had initially agreed upon, bumping the total value of his two-year contract from $40MM up to $50MM, since it didn’t hamper the team’s ability to make other moves. A year later, Dallas may ask Nowitzki to return that favor.

The German big man, who celebrates his 39th birthday on Monday, is coming off his least productive season since his rookie year, having seen his averages slip to 14.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and a .437 FG%. He also missed 28 games due to injuries. Now, the Mavs have to decide whether or not to exercise a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18.

Exercising that team option would leave the Mavs without any cap room, and based on the players they’ve been linked to in various reports and rumors, it doesn’t sound as if they’re necessarily planning on operating as an over-the-cap team. That suggests Dallas may decline Nowitzki’s option and re-sign him at a lesser rate. The amount of the pay cut that Dirk is willing to take could dictate how much spending flexibility the Mavs have this summer.

2. How big will Nerlens Noel‘s new contract be?

Along with Nowitzki, Noel is the other Maverick without a guaranteed contract for 2017/18 who will nonetheless take up a significant chunk of cap room. Having acquired the former sixth overall pick at the deadline, the Mavs appear to regard Noel as their center of the future, and appear to have every intention of retaining him.

Noel, who is eligible for restricted free agency, currently has a cap hold just shy of $11MM. Assuming he intends to re-sign with the Mavs, the team can keep that somewhat modest figure on its books until it uses up the rest of its cap room, and then can go over the cap to lock up Noel. However, if another suitor swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet for Noel, perhaps one worth the max, Dallas’ flexibility may be compromised.

However Noel’s free agency plays out, I don’t expect the Mavs to let him get away, but it will be interesting to see what his new contract looks like. Dallas already has Harrison Barnes on a maximum salary deal, and neither he nor Noel have ever received serious All-Star consideration. With Wesley Matthews also on a sizable contract, the Mavs will have to be careful about paying too many solid starters like they’re franchise players.

3. Will Wesley Matthews be shopped in trade talks?

One way to make a big deal for Noel more palatable would be to move Matthews in a trade that cuts costs. However, Matthews’ trade value isn’t high.

The former Blazer will earn nearly $17.9MM in 2017/18, with an $18.6MM+ player option for the following year. The Portland version of Matthews would have been worth that sort of money, but the Dallas version has seen his shooting numbers decline substantially. A 44.3% shooter (39.3% on three-pointers) before joining the Mavs, Matthews has made just 39.0% of his field goals and 36.2% of his threes over the last two years.

With Barnes now doing many of the things the Mavs initially expected of Matthews, the Marquette product has become more expendable. Dallas wouldn’t get a ton in return for Matthews in a trade, but even just getting out from under his salary would create a new series of possibilities for the club, so it’s worth considering.

4. Who will play point guard for the Mavs?

For the last several years, the Mavs have been searching for long-term answers at the point guard and center positions. With Noel expected to remain in Dallas, the club has a solid option at center. So, what about a point guard?

The free agent market offers plenty of point guard options this summer, and by the sounds of it, the Mavs are exploring the possibility of splashing in that end of the pool. A recent report suggested that the team is viewed as a serious candidate to sign Jrue Holiday, along with his brother Justin Holiday. Signing Jrue would likely require at least $20MM in cap room, so the Mavs’ ability to make a serious play for him – or another point guard of his caliber – may hinge on what happens with Nowitzki, Noel, and Matthews.

Dallas could also delve into the trade market, with another recent report indicating that Ricky Rubio is one trade candidate on the club’s radar. Rubio may be viewed as an underwhelming solution to the Mavs’ point guard problem, but if he continues to play like he did down the stretch in 2016/17, he’d be a worthwhile investment — after the All-Star break, Rubio averaged an impressive 16.0 PPG and 10.5 APG with a .420/.353/.917 shooting line. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly loaded with three-point shooters, so a deal involving Matthews might make some sense for both sides.

5. What will the Mavs do with their lottery pick?

Of course, even if the Mavs don’t land a veteran point guard via trade or free agency, they’re in a great spot to add a prospect at the position. This year’s draft class is heavy on promising point guards, and while the No. 9 pick won’t be high enough to land Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, or De’Aaron Fox, the Mavs may be in position to nab Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

The Knicks, with the No. 8 pick, are a good bet to take one of those two players off the board before Dallas is on the clock, but I’d expect at least one of them to be available. We don’t know for sure that the Mavs are high on both Ntilikina and Smith, and it’s possible the club would rather go in another direction with that pick, such as selecting Lauri Markkanen as Nowitzki’s eventual replacement. But drafting a young point guard and perhaps acquiring a stop-gap veteran (such as Rubio or a second- or third-tier free agent) would be a great way to address a position that has given the Mavs trouble in recent years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Harrison Barnes ($23,112,004)
Wesley Matthews ($17,884,176)
Dwight Powell ($9,003,125)
J.J. Barea ($3,903,900)
Seth Curry ($3,028,410)
Devin Harris ($1,339,662) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
A.J. Hammons ($1,312,611)
Gal Mekel ($315,758) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $59,899,646

Player Options

None

Team Options

Dirk Nowitzki ($25,000,000)
DeAndre Liggins ($1,577,230)¹
Yogi Ferrell ($1,312,611)
Total: $27,889,841

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Devin Harris ($3,062,884) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.
Salah Mejri ($1,471,382)²
Nicolas Brussino ($1,312,611)³
Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,312,611)⁴
Jarrod Uthoff ($1,312,611)⁵
Total: $8,472,099

Restricted Free Agents

Nerlens Noel ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $10,961,225 cap hold)
Total: $10,961,225

Cap Holds

No. 9 overall pick ($2,681,900)
Total: $2,681,900

Trade Exceptions

Andrew Bogut TPE ($6,642,537) — Expires 2/23/18
Justin Anderson TPE ($1,514,160) — Expires 2/23/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $34,340,379

The Mavericks have six fully guaranteed contracts on their books. Adding cap charges for their first-round pick and five empty roster spots brings their total team salary to $66,659,621. That would create enough flexibility to pursue a maximum salary player, but it also doesn’t account for players like Noel or Nowitzki, who will almost certainly be back. So, barring cost-cutting trades, Dallas figures to have less cap room than that when July begins.

Footnotes:

Merji’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.
Liggins’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($26,773) after June 24 if team option is exercised.
Brussino’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Finney-Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after July 6.
Uthoff’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200,000) after July 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

June 18th, 2017 at 9:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks aggressively pursued win-now roster upgrades in the summer of 2016, acquiring Derrick Rose in a trade with the Bulls and signing Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee a couple weeks later in free agency. Rose was so bullish on the new-look Knicks that he optimistically referred to them as a “super-team” alongside the Warriors last offseason, an assertion that looks even more misguided now than it did at the time.

Not only did the Knicks miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season, but the team actually won fewer games (31) than it did in 2015/16 (32). The 2016/17 campaign was filled with indignities for the storied franchise, ranging from Charles Oakley being ejected and banned from Madison Square Garden to Phil Jackson publicly criticizing his highest-paid player and top scorer, Carmelo Anthony.

With the offseason underway in New York, the Knicks will be looking to repair their image off the court in addition to finding ways to improve the product on the court. Here are five key questions facing the club:

1. What will happen with Carmelo Anthony?

Having tired of subtlety, Phil Jackson suggested outright at season’s end that Anthony, the face of the franchise for the last several years, might be better off with another team. He’s not necessarily wrong — the relationship between Anthony and the Knicks seems to have run its course, and if the club is prepared to acknowledge that a rebuild is necessary, it makes sense for Carmelo to pursue a championship elsewhere. Still, it’s the sort of comment rarely made publicly by a team executive, particularly since it could negatively impact his player’s trade value.

Despite the fact that he’s still a reliable scorer, Anthony’s value wasn’t overly high even before Jackson torpedoed it, since his contract is an onerous one, and his 15% trade kicker only makes his salary more difficult to move around. Carmelo also holds a no-trade clause, meaning that his future is ultimately in his own hands, but he appears to be increasingly open to a move, perhaps to a team like the Clippers or Cavaliers.

The Knicks are unlikely to receive too appealing a package in any Anthony deal, and trading with an over-the-cap team like L.A. and Cleveland would mean taking back a sizable chunk of salary to meet the CBA’s trade rules. But at this point, both sides could use a fresh start, and it would be somewhat surprising to see Carmelo still wearing a Knicks uniform next fall.

2. What about the Knicks’ other big contracts?

Anthony’s $26.24MM cap hit is easily the highest on the Knicks’ books for 2017/18, but the team also has two more players earning eight-digit salaries whose long-term futures in New York are uncertain.

Joakim Noah ($17.765MM in 2017/18, plus two more years) had a disastrous first year with the Knicks after signing a $72MM pact with the team. He struggled to produce during the first half of the season, battled injuries in the second half, and capped off the year by receiving a 20-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program. Noah has negative trade value, and now is not the time to stretch his contract to gain cap room, so the Knicks’ best bet is to hope he bounces back when he returns from his suspension in the fall and rebuilds his value.

Unlike Noah, Courtney Lee ($11.75MM in ’17/18, plus two more years) would have some value on the trade market as a three-and-D wing veteran who converted more than 40% of his long-distance attempts in 2016/17. New York won’t trade Lee just to trade him, but he made more sense as a complementary piece on a win-now roster than he does for the current iteration of the Knicks, so the club will likely consider moving him for the right offer in the coming weeks.

3. Is everything okay with Kristaps Porzingis?

With Anthony on the trade block and the Knicks apparently – and reluctantly – ready to embrace a rebuild, it seems logical that the team would be focused on keeping Porzingis happy. The former fourth overall pick, who is still just 21 years old, looks like a franchise cornerstone, and a player worth building around.

The Knicks’ dysfunction didn’t sit well with Porzingis though, prompting the Latvian big man to skip his exit meeting with the franchise and head back to his home country for the summer. The Knicks are extremely unlikely to trade Porzingis – or even to seriously consider it – but if he’s going to be a key piece of the franchise for the next five to 10 years, fence-mending may be required. The Knicks’ front office needs to prove that the Carmelo situation was an aberration, and not a preview of how the team will treat its stars going forward.

4. How will the Knicks address the point guard spot?

The 2016/17 season was Derrick Rose‘s best as a scorer since his All-Star days from 2009-12, but his three-point shot was worse than ever – in the rare instances he shot from deep – and he wasn’t a great facilitator during his first, and possibly only, season in New York. Rose’s agent has suggested his client wants to re-sign with the Knicks, but if he wants anything close to the $21MM+ he earned this past season, the team would probably be wise to move on.

Reports in recent months have suggested that there’s some support within the Knicks’ organization for pursuing a veteran free agent point guard, with Jrue Holiday among the players mentioned. But if the Knicks are serious about running the triangle in 2017/18, it’s not clear how much interest they’ll get from those top free agents. It may make more sense to draft a point guard prospect and teach that player the triangle from the get-go.

5. How will the Knicks use their lottery pick?

That brings us to the Knicks’ lottery pick, which landed at No. 8. This year’s draft class has a strong group of 10 to 12 players at the top, so New York should land a promising prospect, and there’s a good chance that prospect will be a point guard.

Depending on how the first seven picks play out, it’s possible that the Knicks will have their pick of Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and Malik Monk at No. 8. Smith and Ntilikina are more traditional point guards, while Monk is a combo guard who can handle the ball, but is more of a scorer and shooter than a facilitator.

There’s no guarantee that Smith, Ntilikina, and Monk will all be available when the Knicks are on the clock, but at least one or two should be. New York would do well to walk away with any of those three players, adding a building block in the backcourt to pair with Porzingis for the long term.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Carmelo Anthony ($26,243,760)
Joakim Noah ($17,765,000)
Courtney Lee ($11,747,890)
Lance Thomas ($6,655,325)
Kristaps Porzingis ($4,503,600)
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,087,500)
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,025,035)
Willy Hernangomez ($1,435,750)
Total: $75,463,860

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Maurice Ndour ($1,312,611)¹
Marshall Plumlee ($1,312,611)²
Chasson Randle ($1,312,611)
Total: $3,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Ron Baker ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $1,512,611

Cap Holds

Derrick Rose ($30,300,000)³
No. 8 overall pick ($3,501,120)
Justin Holiday ($1,471,382)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,471,382)
Total: $36,743,884

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $19,588,175

Adding the Knicks’ eight guaranteed salaries to cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, the team’s salary totals $81,411,825. Even after waiving their three non-guaranteed players and renouncing free agents like Rose, Holiday, and Baker, that wouldn’t be nearly enough for a maximum salary contract, so the Knicks will have to get creative – or dump salary in a Carmelo trade – if they want to make a splash in free agency.

Footnotes:

Ndour’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Plumlee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after June 30.
Rose’s cap hold is his maximum salary, based on a $101MM cap projection. If the salary cap is higher than $101MM, Rose’s cap hold would increase along with it, up to a maximum of $31,984,878.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 6/12/17 – 6/18/17

June 18th, 2017 at 1:35pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

Will any of these stars get traded on draft night: Carmelo Anthony, Paul George or Jimmy Butler? — Deven Parikh, via Twitter

Probably not Carmelo. The Clippers are his most likely destination and they don’t have any draft picks to offer New York. Then there’s the matter of putting together a deal and convincing Anthony to waive his no-trade clause, all in four days. Look for any movement on that front after the draft. George continues to pledge his loyalty to the Pacers and the franchise says it intends to keep him, but management has to see the writing on the wall. He’s going to be one of the biggest names in free agency in 12 months, and Indiana may decide to unload him now if the right offer arises. A deal still seems more likely closer to next year’s deadline as the Pacers take more time to gauge the market and try to convince George to stay. Butler could be interesting, especially if Dwyane Wade opts out and makes his announcement by Thursday instead of the June 27th deadline. If Wade leaves, that could be the last straw in pushing the Bulls toward rebuilding.

Do you think the Kings would scoff at Timofey Mozgov and the 28th pick for Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple? — thedirewolf

If there is a franchise willing to take Mozgov’s albatross contract away from the Lakers, it could be Sacramento, which will have more cap room than anyone this summer. It depends on the Kings’ plans for Koufos with younger big men like Willie Cauley-Stein, Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere already on the roster. There are cheaper ways to unload Koufos than to pay Mozgov $48MM over the next three years, but the Kings might consider it to pick up an extra draft choice. If they deal away picks No. 5 and 10 to move up for De’Aaron Fox, they’ll be looking for another selection later in the round.

Is T.J. Leaf the next Kevin Love? Is Frank Jackson a first-round pick? — Michael Huff, via Twitter

There are a lot of big guys in college who can shoot, but few of them ever get to Love’s level. Don’t forget that Love was a top prospect in 2008 who was drafted fifth overall. Leaf is projected somewhere in the middle of the first round. He could eventually develop into a Love-type player, but he could also have a rookie season similar to Henry Ellenson‘s. Jackson is a fringe first-rounder who will probably go in the late 20s or early 30s, depending how the other picks play out. In the latest mock drafts, he is listed 25th by ESPN.com’s Chad Ford and 33rd by DraftExpress.

Am I the only one who is absolutely terrified of the prospect of the Spurs drafting Jordan Bell? — Alex Joel, via Twitter

An impressive athlete and a tenacious defender, Bell would replace some of what Jonathon Simmons provides if the Spurs lose him in free agency. But Bell’s limited shooting range doesn’t fit the profile of what San Antonio looks for in a power forward.

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