The Wizards’ 2016 offseason, which included a five-year max contract for Bradley Beal, pricey multiyear investments in Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson, and Jason Smith, and the hiring of Scott Brooks, was met with skepticism by many league observers. However, while most of the team’s free agent additions didn’t pay major dividends, Brooks’ arrival and Beal’s breakout season helped buoy Washington to a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Wizards were just one win away from knocking off the top-seeded Celtics and earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, but this team isn’t a finished product. There are several areas the Wizards will need to address and a handful of questions the club will need to answer in order to make another deep playoff run a year from now.
Here are several key questions facing the Wizards as they enter the offseason:
1. Will Otto Porter be re-signed?
John Wall and Beal are the Wizards’ stars, but if anyone on the roster qualifies as the third piece of a Big Three, it’s Porter. He enjoyed the best season of his four-year career in 2016/17, averaging 13.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 1.5 SPG, with an extremely efficient .516/.434/.832 shooting line. He’s also just 24 years old, and is eligible for restricted free agency this summer.
When Beal reached restricted free agency a year ago, there was little doubt that the Wizards would retain him, despite his injury history. Porter isn’t quite a lock to be brought back — he’ll almost certainly draw enough rival interest that Washington will be forced to go up to the max for him, and he’d be making more than both Beal and Wall in that scenario. Still, letting him go wouldn’t create a ton of cap flexibility for the Wizards, and it would leave the club with a huge hole in its lineup, so I’d expect Porter to stay in D.C.
2. Will Bojan Bogdanovic be re-signed?
Like Porter, Bogdanovic provided reliable outside shooting for the Wizards this season and is eligible for restricted free agency. Bogdanovic, who was acquired at the trade deadline, isn’t as strong an all-around player as Porter, but he’s a very solid scorer off the bench on a team that had a hard time finding production from its second unit.
Assuming they tender Bogdanovic a qualifying offer, as they should, the Wizards will have the opportunity to match any offer sheet the veteran forward signs. But if Porter is re-signed, Washington won’t have a ton of flexibility to match a lucrative offer for Bogdanovic unless the team is willing to go into the tax. Depending on how aggressively suitors pursue Bogdanovic, it might make sense for the Wizards to let him go.
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3. How will the Wizards fortify their bench without a first-round pick or cap room?
The Wizards traded their 2017 first-round pick for Bogdanovic earlier this year, leaving them with only the No. 52 overall pick in this year’s draft. And if they re-sign Porter, they’ll be well over the cap, leaving them without a ton of resources to address their depth. Wall has called for the club to reinforce its second unit, so how might Washington do it?
Over-the-cap teams have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available, and those will be worth about $8.4MM and $3.3MM respectively. That could be enough to add two decent pieces in free agency, though those exceptions won’t be available if the Wizards go over the luxury tax apron — in that case, they’d have the more modest taxpayer MLE ($5.2MM), and wouldn’t be able to use the BAE.
With no obvious way of getting back into the first round or creating cap room, the Wizards may have to consider a trade or two in order to acquire some talent and create flexibility to add more.
4. Will Marcin Gortat be traded?
Gortat expressed frustration at season’s end about his role with the Wizards, suggesting that he may seek a trade this summer. Even if the veteran center doesn’t formally ask to be moved, he looks like one of the most logical trade chips on the roster.
Gortat is less expensive and has a shorter-term deal than fellow center Mahinmi, meaning he should have a little more trade value as well. Gortat and Mahinmi have similar skill-sets — they can rebound, block the occasional shot, and score in the post, but they don’t shoot from outside, and there’s little reason for both of them to get major minutes in the Wizards’ rotation.
Even if the Wizards aren’t able to get a ton of value in return for Gortat, moving his $12.78MM salary could be hugely beneficial if the team doesn’t have to take much salary back. Moving Gortat’s contract wouldn’t necessarily create cap room, but it could create the flexibility to comfortably sign Porter – and perhaps Bogdanovic – while still having room below the tax to use the full MLE and BAE. I’d expect the Wizards, at the very least, to gauge Gortat’s value in the coming weeks.
5. Who will back up John Wall?
Brandon Jennings and Trey Burke are unlikely to be back with the Wizards next season, with neither player having established himself as a reliable backup for Wall at the point (Burke had perhaps his best season as a pro, but played limited minutes and remains more of a scorer than a distributor). If they have the opportunity to dedicate some of their exception money to the point guard position, the Wizards could add a solid veteran.
Obviously, players like George Hill and Jrue Holiday aren’t realistic targets, and even second-tier free agent point guards like Patty Mills will likely be out of the Wizards’ price range. Still, the club should have the chance to land a player a little further down on free agent boards, such as Shaun Livingston, Darren Collison, Raymond Felton, Aaron Brooks, or Deron Williams.
None of those players should be counted on to be a difference-maker, but being able to rely on a veteran point guard to run the offense for 15-20 minutes per game would be valuable for a club that has often seen a massive drop-off in production at that position when Wall sits.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Wizards financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Bradley Beal ($23,775,506)
- John Wall ($18,063,850)
- Ian Mahinmi ($16,661,641)
- Marcin Gortat ($12,782,609)
- Markieff Morris ($8,000,000)
- Jason Smith ($5,225,000)
- Tomas Satoransky ($3,000,000)
- Kelly Oubre Jr. ($2,093,040)
- Chris McCullough ($1,471,382)
- Martell Webster ($833,333) — Waived via stretch provision
- Total: $91,906,361
Player Options
Team Options
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
- Otto Porter ($7,732,904 qualifying offer / $14,734,953 cap hold)
- Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,663,316 qualifying offer / $7,088,241 cap hold)
- Trey Burke ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $8,466,495 cap hold)
- Total: $30,289,689
Cap Holds
Trade Exceptions
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $6,646,794
- Renouncing all their free agents and waiving their non-guaranteed salaries would leave the Wizards with nine guaranteed contracts and three cap charges for empty roster slots, totaling $94,353,206. That doesn’t leave the Wizards much room to work with, so it makes more sense for the team to stay over the cap, which would allow for possible deals with RFAs like Porter and/or Bogdanovic.
Footnotes:
- Mac’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000) after July 1.
- Ochefu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000) after July 1.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
