The 2023 draft is over. Nearly all of this year’s notable free agents are off the board. And now Summer League is behind us too.
In the past, the next two months would have been dead quiet for the NBA, as players, coaches, and executives enjoyed some vacation time and prepared for training camps at the end of September.
The modern NBA has become a 12-month event though, so while the news cycle will be slower in the coming weeks than it was in late June and early July, there are still several big stories worth keeping an eye on. Here are some that we’ll be watching:
Lillard and Harden asked their respective teams to move them right around the start of free agency, but nearly three weeks later, it doesn’t appear that there’s been a whole lot of movement on either front.
Lillard is focused on ending up with the Heat, but Miami lacks the sort of rising young player who would appeal to Portland as the centerpiece of a package and can only currently offer two unencumbered first-round picks.
The Trail Blazers‘ ideal scenario is that another team makes an aggressive play for Lillard, betting that he won’t refuse to report to camp with four years left on his contract and a ton of money at stake. With a compelling alternative available, Portland could go back to Miami with more leverage to convince the Heat to put their very best offer on the table.
Harden, meanwhile, appears focused on ending up with the Clippers. But like the Heat, the Clips don’t necessarily have the sort of assets that would appeal to their would-be trade partner. And even if they did, finding a match between two teams with title aspirations is trickier than a contender making a deal with a rebuilding franchise.
The Sixers are seeking win-now pieces in any Harden deal, but are finding it difficult to extract a ton of value for a player on a pricey expiring contract (which can’t be extended) entering his age-34 season.
It’s still more likely than not that at least one – and maybe both – of Lillard and Harden are playing elsewhere this fall, but it might take some time for a deal to materialize. For what it’s worth, last year’s Donovan Mitchell blockbuster wasn’t agreed upon until the first day of September.
The other trade candidates
Lillard and Harden are the two big names, but plenty of other talented players continue to pop up in trade rumors deep into the offseason. Raptors forward Pascal Siakam has been linked to the Hawks, Pacers, and Magic. The Mavericks have reportedly been eyeing players like Hawks center Clint Capela and Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic.
Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter, Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas, and Heat sharpshooter Tyler Herro are a few of the other players who could end up on new teams by the time the season begins.
Jaylen Brown‘s super-max negotiations
When superstars like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have become eligible in recent years for super-max contract extensions that start at 35% of the salary cap, the negotiations have been quick and painless. After all, for perennial MVP candidates, even super-max deals can turn out to be relative bargains.
But when a player like Brown gains super-max eligibility, as he did this spring by earning a spot on the All-NBA Second Team, those extension negotiations are more challenging. Brown is the No. 2 option on the Celtics‘ roster behind Jayson Tatum. Is Boston really eager to give him what would be – for now, at least – the biggest contract in NBA history, worth upwards of $300MM over five years?
The Celtics are reportedly engaged in discussions with Brown on a super-max deal, but it sounds like it’s not as simple as giving him whatever he wants. While details about the gap between the two sides have been scarce, it’s possible Brown is seeking a fifth-year player option or a trade kicker and Boston is resisting. It’s also possible the Celtics aren’t willing to offer the full super-max amount in guaranteed money, preferring to include incentives that would give Brown the opportunity to max out his earnings if he or the team achieve certain benchmarks.
Reports out of Boston have repeatedly expressed optimism that a deal will get done, and this early in the offseason, there’s no reason to believe that’s not the case — the deadline isn’t until the day before the regular season begins. But the longer the talks drag on, the more interesting it will be to see what the eventual deal looks like, assuming they agree to one.
The other extension candidates
Like Lillard and Harden on the trade market, Brown is the headliner to watch on the contract extension front. But he’s far from the only extension candidate to monitor in the coming weeks and months.
Some teams, like the two in Los Angeles, will face decisions on whether to recommit to their injury-prone veteran superstars on lucrative new extensions — Clippers forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and Lakers big man Anthony Davis are among the players who are either already extension-eligible or will be able to sign extensions before the season begins.
Other teams will have to decide whether to invest long-term in players who are entering the final year of their rookie contracts. Hawks forward Saddiq Bey, Mavericks wing Josh Green, Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels, Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley, and Spurs swingman Devin Vassell are among the most intriguing candidates for rookie scale extensions, though there are many more.
Filling out – and paring down – rosters
We should get some occasional spurts of major news during the next couple months, including resolution on top remaining free agents like Christian Wood and Hornets RFA forward P.J. Washington.
However, the day-to-day headlines will be more about under-the-radar moves, like minimum-salary signings, two-way deals, and Exhibit 10 agreements, as teams work on filling out their 21-man rosters in advance of training camp.
Certain clubs may actually have to pare down their rosters in the coming weeks in order to prepare for camp. The Thunder, for example, are currently carrying 20 players on standard contracts (18 guaranteed) and one on a two-way deal.
Technically, the Thunder don’t need to make any cuts until right before the regular season begins. But they’ll want to start clearing that logjam in advance of training camp so that they can replace some veterans who won’t be on their regular season roster with younger players who they expect to remain in the organization at the G League level. Victor Oladipo, Rudy Gay, Davis Bertans, Usman Garuba, and TyTy Washington are among the players recently acquired by Oklahoma City in salary-dump trades whose spots on the regular season roster are far from assured.
The Hawks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs, and Wizards are also each carrying more than 15 players on standard contracts.
Chicago Bulls
New York Knicks
Extensions, of course, don’t involve adding a new player to the roster. By extending a contract, a team ensures that a current player will remain locked up for multiple years to come. Although a contract extension may not change the club’s outlook on the court, it can have a major impact on that team’s salary cap situation for the next several seasons.