Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Shooting At The Buzzer In Decided Game

Count Courtney Lee among the latest NBA players to complain about opponents putting up shots in the final seconds of a decided game. On Friday night the Grizzlies laid waste to Lee’s Knicks, culminating in rookie Wade Baldwin IV standing at half-court with the ball and a 10-point lead as the game clock neared expiration.

Just before time ran out, however, Baldwin hoisted a deep three and nailed it. The basket pushed the Grizzlies above the triple-digit mark earning Memphis fans in attendance free chicken.

Lee, unhappy to lose by 10 but considerably angrier losing by 13, went after the rookie but was thwarted by a handful of Grizzlies veterans.

For him to do that, what are you doing it for, bro?,” Lee told Marc Berman of the New York Post. “Think about the people who’s doing it. They got bad luck in this league. … I don’t know what made him want to do it.”

Lee’s reaction is a common one among NBA players but should it be?

Just last week Lance Stephenson incited his own commotion by adding a layup in the final seconds of a win over the Raptors. Then, Raptors shooting guard DeMar DeRozan called the moot field goal “disrespectful to the game“. This, naturally, was followed up by Stephenson exposing an instance of DeRozan’s teammate Norman Powell doing similar to the Sixers earlier this season.

Ultimately, the NBA and fan community that drives it need to decide what is permissible in the waning seconds of a ball game and what’s just sour grapes. In response to the Stephenson/Raptors theatrics, Bobby Marks of The Vertical  tweeted “I’m so tired of these unwritten rules in basketball. If you don’t want a player to shoot at the end of the game then play some D.

On one hand, it’s easy to empathize with players like Lee or DeRozan who see the unnecessary field-goal attempts as salt in the wounds of a fresh defeat. On the other, its a thin line expecting everybody to subscribe to the same unwritten rules of a game.

Should players adopt Marks’ stance and play defense if preserving a spread is so important to them? Or should players on the winning end know not to shoot when the game is out of reach?

Factors to consider are that some veterans will go so far as to let the shot clock expire before hoisting a shot at the buzzer resulting in their being assigned a turnover. Another is the fan factor, such as that which was in effect for Baldwin IV. Reaching certain point milestones, usually 100 points, can sometimes trigger benefits for fans in attendance. Does this impact the appropriateness of a last second basket?

You tell us in the comments below!

Potential 2017 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

The NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which will go into effect on July 1, 2017, includes a number of changes to the free agent process, including some that apply specifically to restricted free agents. However, one aspect of restricted free agency unaffected by the new CBA is what’s referred to as the “starter criteria,” which can affect how much an RFA’s qualifying offer will be worth.

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2015/16 and 35 in 2016/17, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons exceeds 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player ensures that a team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet, and gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO. Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. Still, those QOs can have an impact on a team’s salary cap outlook during July’s free agent period, so it’s worth checking in to see which potential RFAs will be eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers this summer.

Listed below are the top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,187,598.

Len and Noel had the worst QO luck this season. As the fifth and sixth overall picks in 2013, they would have been in line for qualifying offers worth about $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively. Instead, their QOs will be worth less than $4.2MM. Both players were very close to meeting the starter criteria too — they’ve started 77 games apiece in the past two years, so they’ll fall just short of the 82 required.

The players listed below are non-lottery first-round picks who will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,588,840.

All four of these players were selected in the 20-26 range in the 2013 draft, and their QOs would’ve ranged from about $3.39MM to $3.22MM if they hadn’t met the starter criteria.

Here are the rest of the RFAs whose qualifying offers won’t necessarily be determined by the standard criteria:

  • Undrafted power forward JaMychal Green (Grizzlies) has met the starter criteria, putting him in line for a QO worth $2,820,497 instead of the more modest amount he would’ve received as a minimum-salary player.
  • Two players – Joe Ingles (Jazz) and Ben McLemore (Kings) – still have a chance to meet the starter criteria depending on how the season’s last four days play out. Ingles has played 1,848 minutes this season, meaning he would have to average about 38 MPG in Utah’s last four contests to reach 2,000, which is a tall order. McLemore may fall just short as well, as he currently sits at 79 starts over the last two seasons. He’ll need to start three of the Kings’ last four games in order to average 41 starts per year, but he has only been in Sacramento’s starting lineup twice since the start of March. (End-of-season update: Neither Ingles nor McLemore met the starter criteria.)

Fantasy Hoops: Richardson, Frye, Lowry, Durant

Congratulations to those of you still competing in the championship round of your league! Hoops Rumors aims to help you bring home the crown. For those of you who are not as fortunate, we want to help you dominate in the daily fantasy realm.  Here are some fantasy notes and analysis from around the league:

  • Josh Richardson has seen his value rise while Dion Waiters sits on the sideline. He’s a nice streaming option for those season-long owners looking for blocks and steals, as he’s snatched 1.4 steals and swatted 1.6 shots per contest since Waiters went down. His price in daily is starting to creep up to his value, but he’s still a decent tournament play.
  • Tristan Thompson will miss the next couple games with a sprained thumb. Channing Frye will start in his place and becomes a valuable cheap option in daily.
  • Over the last 10 games, the Suns have given up 26.5 points per game to opposing point guards, which is the most in the league. Over that stretch, Phoenix has also allowed the highest field goal percentage to the position. Phoenix takes on Stephen Curry tonight and Russell Westbrook on Friday. Both players are worth the price tag in fantasy.
  • The Sixers have placed minutes restrictions on another player. Dario Saric, who is dealing with plantar fasciitis, will be limited to 24 minutes per night down the stretch. You’re still playing him in season-long leagues, but he’s a risky play in daily fantasy.
  • Kyle Lowry is suiting up tonight for the Raptors after missing time with a wrist injury. He’s playable for those still in the fantasy playoffs, but may not be the best play in daily until we see what kind of minutes/role he’s handed.
  • I don’t expect Kevin Durant to return good value in daily fantasy when he returns to the court from his knee injury. That is until at least playoff time. He’s expected to play on Saturday, but he’ll be on a minutes restriction. Take a wait-and-see approach with him.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Wednesday afternoon.

Community Shootaround: Sixth Man Of The Year

There has been plenty of discussion and debate throughout the 2016/17 season about the top candidates for the Most Valuable Player award, with Russell Westbrook and James Harden among the players posting historic numbers. The Rookie of the Year award has also received its fair share of attention, with Joel Embiid receiving more support than a player who missed 50+ games typically would.

Most of the NBA’s other end-of-season awards haven’t been put under the microscope to the same degree, however, and that includes the league’s Sixth Man of the Year award. With the regular season just a week away from wrapping up, we want to take a closer look at the top candidates to be named the league’s top Sixth Man for 2016/17.

Currently, the two most viable candidates for the award play in Houston, where Lou Williams and Eric Gordon are first and second in scoring among players who have spent most of the season coming off the bench. Williams, who played for the Lakers up until the trade deadline, leads the way with 17.8 PPG on .436/.377/.875 shooting, while Gordon isn’t far behind, at 16.4 PPG on .412/.378/.835 shooting.

Both players fit the mold of a typical Sixth Man of the Year, representing dangerous outside scoring threats who ensure a team’s offense doesn’t fall off too badly when its second unit gets on the court. However, they aren’t the only players worthy of consideration.

Jamal Crawford and Jordan Clarkson also fit the bill of backcourt scorers off the bench, while Zach Randolph, Enes Kanter, and Greg Monroe are among the frontcourt offensive threats playing with their respective teams’ second units.

The offensive numbers posted by those players may receive more attention from voters, but versatile veterans like James Johnson and Andre Iguodala shouldn’t be overlooked either — they’re doing a little of everything, including playing tough defense.

Meanwhile, Wilson Chandler has enjoyed one of his best seasons in Denver, averaging 15.6 PPG and 6.5 RPG for the Nuggets, but the fact that he has started more than 30 games figures to hurt his case for serious consideration.

What do you think? Will Sixth Man of the Year come down to Williams vs. Gordon, and if so, which one should take home the hardware? Do you think another player deserves to be seriously considered? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts!

Community Shootaround: UNC Players In The NBA

University of North Carolina coach Roy Williams came to Chapel Hill in 2003 and he’s led the school to four national title games. During his time at the program, he’s sent countless UNC prospects to the NBA, but not one of the players have made an All-Star game, as Jonathan Tjarks of the Ringer notes.

That led Hoops Rumors to wonder: Out of all the Roy Williams-coached UNC players in the NBA, who’s the best?

Ty Lawson may be the leading candidate. The Nuggets traded away Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony at the 2010/11 deadline and the move gave Lawson an opportunity to take control of the franchise. From 2011 to 2015, Lawson averaged 16.5 points and 8.0 assists while shooting 45.4% from the field and he helped Denver reach the playoffs each season. However, the franchise never won a playoff series while Lawson was the starter.

Danny Green is the most accomplished choice. He has a championship ring with the Spurs and he’s one of the best active UNC products. His role in San Antonio should allow him to be productive for the next several years, giving him longevity over players like Lawson. However, he’s never been an NBA team’s top option, which hurts his candidacy for the distinction.

Marvin Williams is another excellent role player who could be considered the best. He’s never lived up to his No.2 overall draft pick status, but he’s currently one of the Hornets’ most important players.

Harrison Barnes has the potential to be the best NBA player who Roy Willaims coached at UNC. He didn’t get the opportunity to showcase his all of his ability until he signed with the Mavericks this past offseason. He’s scoring 19.5 games in an expanded role in Dallas and he’s sporting an auspicious 16.6 player efficiency rating.

Does Raymond Felton belong in the conversation? How about John Henson? Let us know who you think is the best NBA player to play under Roy Williams at UNC. Is it one of the aforementioned names or is there another player who should be considered the best? Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts. We look forward to what you have to say!

Weekly Mailbag: 3/27/17 – 4/2/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

Why can’t the Knicks just outright release Carmelo Anthony? Does his contract have anything where he can’t get released?  And what team would take a chance on him? — Bobby Cerasuolo

Like all NBA stars, Anthony has a fully guaranteed contract. So if Phil Jackson decided to escalate their war by putting Carmelo on waivers, the Knicks would still have to pay him $26,243,760 for next season, along with $27,928,140 for 2018/19 that he will probably opt out of. Another team might absorb that contract in a waiver claim, but the Knicks would still lose a prime asset with no return. So releasing Anthony isn’t an option, but a trade certainly is, although it’s an expensive one with a 15% trade kicker for the team that acquires him. Even so, most insiders expect Anthony to be somewhere else by the end of summer.

Who do you anticipate the Sacramento Kings drafting with their first selection in the June draft? Slot 6 or 7. — Dirk Watkins

The Kings have been loading up on young big men, Buddy Hield and Arron Afflalo seem set at shooting guard and Rudy Gay might change his mind about opting out in the wake of his Achilles injury. Point guard is the major area of need with Darren Collison and Ty Lawson both 29 and entering free agency. Luckily, this year’s draft is rich in point guards. The latest mock draft from Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress has Kentucky’s Malik Monk going fifth, followed by teammate De’Aaron Fox and North Carolina State’s Dennis Smith. At least one of them should be available when the Kings pick, and any of them would be a nice building block for Sacramento.

Who is the best prospect in all of high school basketball right now in your opinion regardless of class? — Jake Teegardin

We’ve heard scouts say that Michael Porter Jr., a 6’8″ forward out of Seattle, is a future NBA star. Porter recently pulled out of a commitment to Washington after Lorenzo Romar was fired and will play next season at Missouri, which recently hired Cuonzo Martin as head coach and Porter’s father as an assistant. Porter was named Player of the Year by USA Today and was a standout at this week’s McDonald’s All-American Game. Also, keep an eye on DeAndre Ayton, a 7-foot center out of Phoenix who will play for Arizona next season.

Community Shootaround: Hall of Fame Omissions

There were howls of protest out of Houston today when the 2017 class was announced for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Despite making five all-star teams as a player and winning two titles as a coach, Rudy Tomjanovich was passed over once again.

Former teammate Calvin Murphy and ex-Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy were among those protesting the omission. Houston Chronicle writer Jonathan Feigen blasted the move in a column, saying “The exclusion of Tomjanovich and others said nothing about their achievements, and everything about the secret panel’s failure.”

The man known as “Rudy T” was one of the top forwards in the game in the 1970s. He spent 11 years in the NBA, all with the Rockets, and might have played longer if not for the lingering effects from Kermit Washington’s infamous punch in 1977.

After his playing career ended, Tomjanovich stayed with the Rockets as an assistant coach. He took over as head coach midway through 1991/92 and compiled 527 career wins, leading the franchise to its only championships in 1994 and 1995.

But Tomjanovich wasn’t the only significant player to be passed over this year. Here are a few more who have arguably earned a spot in Springfield:

  • Chris Webber — The first pick in the 1993 draft was also a five-time All-Star. He played 15 NBA seasons, seven with Sacramento, and helped the Kings become one of the most successful teams of the early 2000s. He was the 1994 Rookie of the Year and an All-NBA selection in 2001.
  • Sidney Moncrief — Another five-time All-Star, Moncrief was the standout player on some great Bucks teams in the 1980s. He scored nearly 12,000 points in 11 NBA seasons and was voted Defensive Player of the Year in 1983 and 1984.
  • Tim Hardaway Sr. — One of the NBA’s best point guards in his 14 seasons, Hardaway is best known as part of the electric “Run T.M.C.” Golden State teams. He made five All-Star teams, was named to the All-Rookie Team in 1990 and the All-NBA Team in 1997.
  • Kevin Johnson — The former Suns standout ranks sixth in NBA history in assists per game with 9.1 over his career. He played 13 seasons, made three All-Star teams and was named Most Improved Player in 1989.
  • Jack Sikma — The former SuperSonics and Bucks center is the only eligible seven-time All-Star not enshrined in Springfield. He played 14 seasons, scored 17,287 points and won the 1979 championship in Seattle.
  • Bob Dandridge — He was a star forward in the 1970s who won titles with the Bucks and Bullets. Dandridge played 13 seasons, made four All-Star teams and holds the distinction for scoring the most points in the NBA Finals during the 1970s.

We want to hear from you. Which of these players most deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, and who are some others that should be considered? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below. We look forward to what you have to say.

Send Us Your Mailbag Questions, Hoops Links Submissions

Every Sunday at Hoops Rumors, we publish a pair of features that rely on input and submissions from our readers. One is our Weekly Mailbag, in which Arthur Hill answers a few questions related to the latest news and rumors from around the NBA. The second is our Hoops Links feature, which showcases a selection of notable NBA blog entries from all over the internet. In each instance, the content for those features comes from you.

Have a question regarding player movement, free agent rumors, the salary cap, the NBA draft, or the top storylines of the week? You can email them here for consideration for our Weekly Mailbag: hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com. If your question doesn’t get selected for our mailbag, be sure to join us on Monday afternoons for our weekly live chats — our chats will resume after the regular season ends, as we begin to look ahead to the summer in earnest.

Got a new NBA blog post that you’d like to see featured on Hoops Rumors? You can send the URL and a brief description of the piece to hoopslinks@gmail.com for consideration.

Be sure to send us your new mailbag questions and NBA blog posts each week, and check back every Sunday to see if you’ve been featured in that week’s installment!

Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/26/17 – 4/1/17

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

  • Luke Adams broke down the maximum salaries that players of varying experience can command under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
  • Hawks swingman Kent Bazemore and Jazz guard Rodney Hood are a couple of under-the-radar players who could help your fantasy team. Chris Crouse dishes out expert advice in his weekly fantasy column.
  • The Celtics are not only in position to nab the No. 1 seed in the East, they could make moves this offseason to become a perennial powerhouse. Arthur Hill explains why that could occur in his Weekly Sunday Mailbag. For details on how to submit a question for our next mailbag, click here.
  • We keep track of every 10-day contract signed this season. Get all the details here on how to search our database.
  • In our weekly Hoops Links roundup of interesting articles from around the blogosphere, Chris Crouse passed along pieces on Draymond Green, LeBron James, P.J. Tucker, and more. For details on how to submit a blog entry for consideration in our next installment of Hoops Links, click here.

Here are the questions we asked you in our Community Shootaround discussions and polls this week:

Projecting Maximum Salary Contracts For 2017/18

With the NBA set to implement a new Collective Bargaining Agreement for the 2017/18 season, a number of aspects of the CBA will be tweaked, or will change significantly. The maximum salary contract is one thing that falls into the former category — it’ll look a little different starting this summer, but the changes are minor.

For instance, under the current CBA, maximum salary tiers are divided based on a player’s years of NBA experience. Players with six or fewer years under their belts can get up to about 25% of the cap, players who have played between seven and nine years can get up to about 30% of the cap, and veterans who have played 10+ years are eligible to sign for about 35% of the cap. The new CBA will keep those divisions in place, and actually simplify them a little — the percentages are no longer approximate. A player with 10+ years of experience will be able to sign for up to exactly 35% of the cap.

In the new CBA, players with 10 or more years of experience won’t be the only players whose maximum salaries can be worth up to 35% of the cap. There will also be designated veteran extensions available for players entering their eighth or ninth NBA seasons. If that player signed a rookie-scale extension, is still with the team that signed him to that extension, and earned All-NBA honors in the previous season (or in two of the last three years), he’s eligible to get up to 35% of the cap instead of his allotted 30%.

This new rule made the DeMarcus Cousins trade last month an interesting one. If he had remained in Sacramento, Cousins would have been eligible for a designated veteran extension with the Kings, since he met the criteria listed above. However, with the Pelicans, he’s only eligible to sign a deal worth up to 30% of the cap until he has 10 NBA seasons under his belt.

Outside of those changes, there’s one more minor tweak worth noting. Previously, players who signed max deals with their own team were eligible for 7.5% annual raises, as opposed to 4.5% annual raises if they were to sign with a new team in free agency. Under the new CBA, those max raises have been bumped up a little, to 8% and 5% respectively. Players are still limited to four new years on a contract with a new team, as opposed to five years with their current team.

Keeping all that in mind, let’s dive in and take a look at what a maximum salary contract might look like this summer. At this point, we can only rely on salary cap projections provided by the NBA, since the exact cap figure for 2017/18 won’t be known until the summer.

At last check, the league was calling for a $102MM cap for the 2017/18 season. Using that tentative figure, here’s what maximum salary contracts would look like in ’17/18:


A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Maximum salaries (current team)


A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Maximum salaries (new team)

 


A year ago, Mike Conley set a new NBA record when he signed a five-year contract that exceeded $152MM. This time around, a handful of players could break that record again. Stephen Curry will qualify for a designated player extension and Chris Paul, who has played for more than a decade, may also be seeking a five-year, maximum-salary deal. As our charts above show, both players would be eligible for five-year contracts exceeding $207MM if they remain with their current teams.

Meanwhile, a player like Gordon Hayward has a number of potential contract scenarios in play. If he doesn’t earn an All-NBA spot, his decision will be clearer — he could get up to four years and $131.58MM with a new team, or up to five years and $177.48MM with the Jazz, assuming Utah is willing to go that high. If Hayward is named to an All-NBA team, he’d have the option of exercising his player option and seeking a designated veteran extension with the Jazz, which would begin in 2018/19 — with the cap expected to rise again next year, such an extension would likely be worth even more than the $207.06MM noted above.