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Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year

March 16th, 2017 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy sang the praises of his Jazz counterpart, Quin Snyder, prior to their teams’ game on Wednesday.

“There’s always a lot of good coaching jobs done in this league but you’d have to put him in the top three or four in what’s he’s done with that team and bringing them [up] from last year,” Van Gundy said.

Certainly, Snyder would have to be on anyone’s short list for the NBA Coach of the Year award. The Jazz are cruising along at 18 games over .500 and have moved into fourth place in the Western Conference, ahead of the much-more heralded Clippers and Thunder. Utah suffered through numerous injuries last season and finished two games under .500, just missing the playoffs.

There are a few other coaches who have emerged as candidates for the honor as the regular season winds down. Certainly, the Rockets’ Mike D’Antoni has re-asserted himself as a major force in his profession. Following failed stints with the Knicks and Lakers, D’Antoni seemed to be at the end of his head coaching career.

D’Antoni got another chance in Houston and found the perfect situation because of its commitment to a high-powered offense and the 3-point shot. His decision to make James Harden the primary ballhandler has turned the Rockets into one of the league’s most feared teams, one year removed from a dysfunctional and disappointing season in which the Rockets finished with a .500 record.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is often taken for granted but he’s got his team in position to snatch away the top seed from the Warriors. San Antonio hasn’t missed a beat despite the retirement of Tim Duncan and a backcourt with only one player (Patty Mills) whose PER is above the league average of 15.0.

Over in the Eastern Conference, Wizards coach Scott Brooks has his team within striking distance of the top seed after it finished .500 last season. The Wizards have dealt with chemistry and locker-room issues in recent years but Brooks has them playing harmoniously.
Brad Stevens has continued to keep the Celtics on an upward trajectory, as they currently sit in the No. 2 spot.

The Heat’s stunning turnaround has moved Erik Spoelstra in the conversation. Left for dead at the midway point with an 11-30 record, the Heat have surged into playoff contention despite injuries to several rotation players.

That brings us to our question of the day: Who do you feel is most deserving of the Coach of the Year award and why?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to hearing what you have to say.

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The Evolution Of Analytics: Taking The NBA’s Pulse

March 14th, 2017 at 10:54pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Analytics in the NBA has come a long way. There was a time when basketball-lifers and number-guys were gridlocked in a duel for the future. Now, both sides have softened their stance and acknowledge that the process needs to be a combination of stats, scouting, and common sense.

In most organizations, analytics departments don’t usually communicate directly with players. “We meet with coaches more so than players and let them relay the information,” Bucks Director of Basketball Research Seth Partnow told Hoops Rumors.“There may be reasons why a player is not performing [certain] tasks that are more effective in theory.”

Partnow wouldn’t provide a specific example from Milwaukee’s front office, but during the MIT Sloan Conference’s Ball Don’t Lie panel, former Nuggets executive Dean Oliver spoke about a scenario where the team shot down the empirical evidence. In the late 2000’s, Oliver’s research found that if J.R. Smith took a few steps back when shooting from behind the arc—akin to what Stephen Curry has done over the last few seasons—the value of the increase in floor spacing would outweigh the slight dip in 3-point percentage. However, coach George Karl wasn’t comfortable giving Smith the green light from that distance (the running joke among panel members and media attendees was that Oliver should have communicated directly with Smith, which would have easily persuaded the shooting guard to test out the theory as well as given Oliver the chance–likely with success– to validate his research).

There are other instances where teams may not use all the available information. Overloading players with data can be counter-productive at times. “Some players you give data to slows their mind down, slows their feet down,” former NBA coach Vinny Del Negro said during the same panel. “There might be a younger guy that you can only tell one or two things to…you have to remember the human element.” 

Free agent power forward Luis Scola believes that in 10 years, every player will be comfortable with analytics, though he admits many of them rely on coaching staffs to get acclimated with the terminology and application of the mathematics. “In terms of data, players are way behind coaches,” Scola said.

As the analytics movement continues to evolve, the focus will shift to sports science. “Where else can it go? We tackled the front office already,” former Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks told Hoops Rumors. Organizations are already able to use mathematical models to gauge player values and learn how their roster can improve on and off the court. The next step is improving ways to monitor the health of players and perfecting the distribution of minutes in teams’ rotations. Marks, who now writes for The Vertical, envisions nearly every club hiring a Director of Sports Science to head a branch of their analytic departments in the future.

Player tracking devices will allow teams to gain the information needed to make crucial decisions. The new CBA could give players the ability to wear trackables and teams the access to the data, but the technology won’t be blanketly allowed throughout the league once the new agreement is signed. Per the new CBA, the NBA will set up committees, which will be comprised of league office members and representatives from the players’ union, to regulate the use of biometrics. Marks cautions that it’s not inevitable that players will use the technology next season, calling the integration of wearables “a slow process.”

Some players are luke-warm on the idea of wearables, while a fraction of them are against wearing the devices for fear that the data will hurt them in free agency. That viewpoint is far from the majority; many players see the value of the data. Once the new information exists, it will be used to assist the players with their health and help teams find the optimal minute distributions which will allow the players to have longer careers. “[The league] is going to get better using this [technology],” Celtics Assistant GM Michael Zarren said during the Ball Don’t Lie panel. “98% of the time, the players and team objectives align.”

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Fantasy Hoops: Clippers, Zubac, Nurkic

March 14th, 2017 at 9:34pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Happy π day everyone! In honor of the day and of the fantasy playoffs, Hoops Rumors wants to make this a stat-driven edition of Fantasy Hoops. Here’s some fantasy notes and analysis from around the league.

  • The Clippers may appear as a tough matchup for centers, but over the last 10 contests, only the Knicks have allowed more points per game to opposing fives. Over that span, no team has allowed a better shooting percentage to opposing fives and only three teams (Nets, Nuggets, and Kings) have allowed more assists to the position. L.A. will take on the Bucks, Nuggets, Cavs, Knicks and Lakers over their next five games.
  • The Lakers shut down Timofey Mozgov and the move should give Ivica Zubac an opportunity to become a fantasy contributor. On Monday night, the rookie saw 30 minutes of action and made 12 of his 15 shot attempts on his way to 25 points and 11 rebounds.
  • Jusuf Nurkic is available in nearly 30% of ESPN leagues. That number should be closer to zero, as he’s averaging 15.3 points per games since the All-Star game and he’s one of 15 players in the league averaging at least one block and one steal per contest over that span.
  • Alan Williams is also one of those 15 players.  In addition to contributing in the blocks and steals categories, he’s averaging 13.8 points and 9.7 rebounds in 25.4 minutes per game since the break. Williams is available in nearly 50% of ESPN leagues.
  • Jeremy Lin is starting to significant minutes again. Over his last five games, he’s seeing 24.8 minutes per game and averaging 16.6 points, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steals per contest.
  • Over the last 10 games, no team has allowed a better shooting percentage to opposing point guards than the Grizzlies. Only three teams ( Suns, Blazers, and Bulls) have allowed more points per game to the position over that stretch. Memphis plays Chicago on Wednesday and Rajon Rondo could be a nice streaming option. Patty Mills could be a sneaky good fantasy option as well over the next two weeks. The Spurs play the Grizzlies twice over their next five games.
  • Keep an eye on Michael Beasley‘s status. The former No. 2 overall pick remains out with a knee injury and he isn’t traveling with the Bucks on their current 5-game road trip. In the five games prior to his injury, Beasley played a major role in the offense, averaging 17.4 points per game and ranking second on the team is usage rate. Beasley could be a fantasy contributor. The 28-year-old could be an excellent fantasy asset once he returns to the court.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Statistics are current through Tuesday afternoon.

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Talking NBA Awards, Trades At The 2017 MIT Sloan Conference

March 14th, 2017 at 12:56pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Hoops Rumors recently spoke with several current and former league executives as well as other media members at this year’s MIT Sloan Conference. We conducted a brief poll with topics ranging from the MVP race to front office moves. Here are some highlights from the discussions with our six poll participants:

2017 Most Valuable Player

All but one of our six participants said Russell Westbrook should be the NBA’s 2017 MVP. During the conference’s Ball Don’t Lie Panel, former Nuggets executive Dean Oliver, who was not part of the group, compared Westbrook’s candidacy to Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 MLB MVP campaign: “Stats lie, but people will vote for [Westbrook] because of the stats.”

Cabrera won the American League triple crown in 2012 and was named Most Valuable Player, but many observers felt that Mike Trout had the better overall season and should have won the award.

Many Sloan attendees told Hoops Rumors that we may be headed for a similar situation in the NBA this season, with Westbrook receiving votes because of the triple-doubles even though LeBron James, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard all deserve as much – if not more – credit for how they help their respective teams.

2017 Rookie of The Year

It’s a small sample size, but it’s telling that none of the six members polled said they would vote for Joel Embiid for the Rookie of the Year. While Embiid is easily the most impressive rookie in terms of per-game impact, he hasn’t even cracked 800 minutes this season.

By comparison, Dario Saric has already played nearly 1,700 minutes with 16 games to go. Saric received four of the votes in our poll, while Malcolm Brogdon received the other two.

However, one former executive told Hoops Rumors that Buddy Hield could still work his way into the conversation. That exec believed that the Kings could give Hield “free reign” in the offense over the final stretch of the season.

Most impactful trade deadline deal

The Mavericks’ acquisition of Nerlens Noel from the Sixers received the most votes for the deadline deal that will be the most impactful long-term, slightly edging out the Pelicans’ DeMarcus Cousins deal.

The trade that has the most impact short-term? Two votes were cast for Houston landing Lou Williams. The Cousins trade received two votes as well, while Washington’s Bojan Bogdanovic deal and Toronto’s Serge Ibaka/P.J. Tucker acquisitions (technically two separate trades, but viewed as one elongated transaction) also received one vote apiece.

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Community Shootaround: Lottery Picks in Tourney

March 13th, 2017 at 8:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Right now, most basketball fans are agonizing over their bracket selections for the NCAA Tournament. With no clearcut favorite during March Madness this year, there are a lot of difficult decisions ahead before those brackets are finalized.

Every tournament has some breakout performers who garner national attention — and perhaps improve their NBA draft stock. Most of the projected lottery picks for the June draft will be in action this weekend, trying to lead their teams to the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.

Virtually all of those players are freshmen falling into the one-and-done category. The one who has received the most publicity is UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball. The precocious floor leader tops the nation in assists and is expected to be one of the top two picks in the draft along with Washington’s Markelle Fultz.

Using DraftExpress.com’s current rankings, there are three other freshmen in the top five on serious title contenders. Kansas small forward Josh Jackson was suspended for a game in the Big 12 tournament but it won’t affect his status for the NCAAs. He’s averaging 16.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists for that perennial powerhouse. Duke small forward Jayson Tatum posted slightly higher point and rebounding totals than Jackson, while Kentucky point guard De’Aaron Fox engineers the Wildcats’ high-octane attack.

Fox’s team, swingman Malik Monk, can score in bunches as his 20.4 point average attests. Arizona power forward Lauri Markkanen has drawn comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki, while small forward Jonathan Isaac quickly emerged as one of the top players for No. 3 seed Florida State.

Still another freshman, Michigan State small forward Miles Bridges, carried the load for a team riddled with injuries to its veteran players. North Carolina’s leading scorer Justin Jackson breaks the mold by being a junior and he could move up a few spots if the Tar Heels make a deep run.

Of course, it’s not necessary to have a lottery-bound player to win the national championship, as Villanova showed last season. But we’re not asking for your bracket picks here, we’re looking for your opinion on these projected lottery picks.

This brings us to our question of the day: Which of the current projected lottery picks will make the biggest splash in the NCAA Tournament and why will they stand out?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to what you have to say.

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Checking In On NBA’s 2017 Draft Lottery Trades

March 13th, 2017 at 12:41pm CST by Luke Adams

As our 2016/17 NBA Reverse Standings show, the Celtics – by way of the Nets – have all but clinched the No. 1 spot in the 2017 draft lottery. With a record of 12-53, Brooklyn has a 7.5-game “lead” over the second-place Lakers, who are 20-46. Barring a hot streak that sees the Nets practically double their win total, their last-place finish will ensure that the Celtics have a 25% chance of landing the first overall pick this spring.

However, once we move past the Nets, there are many interesting lottery situations that are far from decided, which could have significant ramifications for the future of several franchises. Here’s a closer look at a few of them:

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are currently in second place in our reverse standings, with a 1.5-game lead on the Suns. If Los Angeles can hold that position the rest of the way, it would give the team a great chance to keep its 2017 first-round pick, which is top-three protected. If they lose the pick, it’ll be sent to the Sixers.

If the Lakers finish as the NBA’s second-worst team, they’d have a 55.8% chance of landing in the top three and keeping their pick. If they were to slip just one spot in the lottery standings and finish with the league’s third-worst record, those odds would shift below 50/50, to just 46.9%.

This year’s lottery outcome is particularly crucial for the Lakers, since losing this year’s pick would also mean they’d have to send their 2019 first-rounder (unprotected) to Orlando. If the Lakers keep this year’s first-rounder, their commitment to the Magic would become a pair of second-round picks in 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia 76ers / Sacramento Kings

The Kings‘ 2017 first-round pick is top-10 protected — if it lands outside the top 10, Sacramento will have to send the pick to Chicago. However, a lengthy losing streak has put the Kings in a great position to keep that selection — they’re now 25-41, No. 6 in our reverse standings and four full games ahead of the 29-37 Hornets (No. 11).

With the Kings’ pick looking pretty safe, it’s now worth watching to see where it lands in relation to the Sixers‘ pick. Philadelphia has the opportunity to swap picks with the Kings, so Sacramento won’t necessarily be rooting for lottery luck unless both the Kings and Sixers can jump into the top three. Currently, the 24-42 Sixers are just one game ahead of Sacramento in our reverse standings.

If the Kings and Sixers finish as the league’s fifth- and sixth-worst teams, Philadelphia would have a 15.1% chance of landing the first-round pick, rather than just 8.8%.

New Orleans Pelicans

When the Pelicans acquired DeMarcus Cousins last month, most observers called the trade a coup for New Orleans. However, that early assessment of the deal hinged on the assumption that the Pelicans would improve with Cousins in the lineup, reducing the value of the first-round pick they sent to Sacramento in the swap. That hasn’t happened so far, as the 26-40 Pelicans place eighth in our reverse standings.

If the Pelicans were to finish as the NBA’s eighth-worst team, they’d have a 10% chance to jump into the top three and hang onto their pick. Otherwise, the Kings would be in position to acquire the pick and hold two top-10 selections.

The rest

No other lottery picks for 2017 appear to be in flux — the Mavericks traded their first-rounder to the Sixers, but it’s top-18 protected, and Dallas has essentially no chance of landing outside of the top 18.

Further down in our reverse standings, outside of the lottery, every traded first-round pick should change hands. Of those late-round selections, the most valuable traded pick looks to be the Grizzlies‘ selection, which they’ll send to the Trail Blazers. It currently projects to be No. 19 overall.

RealGM’s list of traded draft picks was used in the creation of this post.

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Weekly Mailbag: 3/6/17 – 3/12/17

March 12th, 2017 at 11:05am CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

So the Warriors are trending down in the win/loss column with Kevin Durant injured for the rest of the regular season, and Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs are the hottest team in the NBA right now. If the Spurs win the first seed, does that increase his chance to win MVP, or does Harden/Westbrook still win with their unbelievable individual seasons but lesser record? — Michael Thompson

Leonard is undoubtedly the best two-way player in what could be a fascinating MVP race. He’s a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who averages 26.2 points per game, and the Spurs have a legitimate shot at the league’s best record. A lot of MVP voters get locked into specific players early in the season, and James Harden and Russell Westbrook have been the favorites for several months. A lot of East Coast support will probably also go to the Celtics’ Isaiah Thomas. If the vote is split enough ways, Leonard could have a chance. He’s a worthy candidate regardless of the outcome.

Why is Spencer Hawes still a Buck? They traded for a guy who put up productive numbers in Charlotte, but he didn’t play a single minute in the first month after the trade. Coach Jason Kidd emptied his bench with the loss to the Nuggets the other night, yet there was a DNP-CD beside one name… you know who. What’s going on here? If he wasn’t going to be traded, why wouldn’t both sides have come to an agreement on a buyout? Does his player option somehow complicate the situation, or is there something else to this beyond what meets the eye? — Greg Thompson

The main focus of the Hawes deal was to offload Miles Plumlee‘s $50MM contract. Milwaukee made the deal for financial reasons, not because it sees Hawes as part of the future. Hawes has a player option for next season worth more than $6MM, which is probably more than he could get on the open market, so he had little interest in taking a buyout. He is stuck behind Thon Maker and Greg Monroe in the rotation, so unless the Bucks can find another team to deal him to this summer, they’re probably stuck with each other for another season, with plenty of DNP-CDs left to come.

Why do teams buy out players before the March 1st deadline? They cannot save that much money. Would they be better off in the long run buying out after March 1st so if a team that is interested in a player for the playoffs have to give up a pick to get that player before the trade deadline? — Michael Potopa

Players who agree to buyouts almost always do so in hopes of joining a playoff team. There would be almost no incentive for a player to give up part of his salary in a buyout after March 1st if he can’t participate in the postseason. Teams agree to buyouts to save some cash, and sometimes to do a favor for a veteran player — to give him a chance to get a ring. Another behind-the-scenes reason that teams agree to buyouts is to improve their reputation with agents. A team that does a favor for one client may be better position when another client hits free agency.

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Comprehensive BIG3 Rosters/Player List

March 11th, 2017 at 1:57pm CST by Austin Kent

The BIG3 Draft is in the rearview mirror and now we can get a sense of the players that will play on each of the eight squads.

Below the rosters is a list of players who were announced to be available for the draft but who ultimately went undrafted.

(Note: Mobile and Trade Rumors app users, be sure to turn your phone sideways to view the tables in full).

Read more

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/4/17 – 3/11/17

March 11th, 2017 at 10:15am CST by Austin Kent
  • Fresh off of a Mark Cuban appearance at this year’s MIT Sloan Conference, Chris Crouse wrote about how the Mavericks built around Dirk Nowitzki in a must-read feature.
  • Luke Adams broke down the early decisions dates for individuals like Rudy Gay with player options for the 2017/18 season.
  • Did you know that you can follow specific players on Hoops Rumors? Here’s how you can tap into a dedicated stream of content specifically for your favorite player.
  • Several young players due for rookie-scale extensions have been hit hard by injuries. Luke Adams takes a closer look at the cases of Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker and Zach LaVine.
  • Amid one of the most hotly debated MVP races in recent memory, we decided to ask our readers who they thought should win the year-end award. If we learned anything from the results, it’s that this is a good year to be an NBA fan.
  • The NBA blogosphere is a powerful thing. This week Milo Taibi scoured the internet for some of the best blog features online.
  • Looking for help from the waiver wire in your fantasy basketball league? Chris Crouse examined some of the most valuable free agents that could still be available
  • Missed Luke Adams’ live chat with fans on Monday? Check out a transcript of the conversation and don’t forget to participate for yourself next time he goes live.
  • Every year the D-League gains ground as a valuable development system for NBA teams and this year has been no different. As Luke Adams explains, an impressive 16 of this year’s 30 first-round picks have already been on assignment this year.
  • Have a question for Hoops Rumors? Looking for somebody to validate (or quash) your outlandish fan theory? Don’t hesitate to send your inquiries for a chance to be featured in our weekly mailbag series.
  • Five pending free agents have seen their values impacted by recent trades. Luke Adams wrote about what recently moved players like Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson will be able to expect this offseason.
  • Every week we like to turn the floor over to our readers so that they can weigh in on pressing issues relevant to the league. This week was no different, below are our Community Shootaround posts.
    • Does the NBA need a better system in place for handling “buyout season“?
    • The Knicks caused a stir when they decided to forgo in-game music in a game at Madison Square Garden this week. What do you think about the a capella approach?
  • Don’t forget to check out last week’s Hoops Rumors Originals if you didn’t catch them the first time around.
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Send Us Your Mailbag Questions, Hoops Links Submissions

March 10th, 2017 at 5:48pm CST by Luke Adams

Every Sunday at Hoops Rumors, we publish a pair of features that rely on input and submissions from our readers. One is our Weekly Mailbag, in which Arthur Hill answers a few questions related to the latest news and rumors from around the NBA. The second is our Hoops Links feature, which showcases a selection of notable NBA blog entries from all over the internet. In each instance, the content for those features comes from you.

Have a question regarding player movement, free agent rumors, the salary cap, the NBA draft, or the top storylines of the week? You can e-mail them here for consideration for our Weekly Mailbag: hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com. If your question doesn’t get selected for our mailbag, be sure to join us on Monday afternoons for our weekly live chat.

Got a new NBA blog post that you’d like to see featured on Hoops Rumors? You can send the URL and a brief description of the piece to hoopslinks@gmail.com for consideration.

Be sure to send us your new mailbag questions and NBA blog posts each week, and check back every Sunday to see if you’ve been featured in that week’s installment!

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