Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

Hoops Rumors Originals

Revisiting NBA Over/Under Predictions For 2016/17

April 13th, 2017 at 2:19pm CST by Luke Adams

At the start of the 2016/17 NBA season, we took a close look at the projected win totals for each NBA team, with the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv. Division by division, we ran through every club from the Warriors (66.5) to the Nets (20.5), allowing you to weigh in and vote on whether you though each team’s win total would ultimately end up above or below its preseason projection.

With the regular season now in the books, we’re taking a look back today at the results of those votes to see how we fared in our predictions. Listed below are the over/unders for each team, the results of our preseason votes, and the team’s regular season record. Our correct calls are noted in green, while the ones we missed are marked in red.

Here are the results:

Atlantic (2-3)

  • Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
    • Record: 53-29 (Over)
  • Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Over)
  • New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
    • Record: 31-51 (Under)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
    • Record: 28-54 (Over)
  • Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
    • Record: 20-62 (Under)

Central (2-3)

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Under)
  • Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
    • Record: 37-45 (Under)
  • Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
    • Record: 42-40 (Under)
  • Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Over)
  • Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
    • Record: 42-40 (Over)

Southeast (2-3)

  • Atlanta Hawks (43.5 wins): Over (59.84%)
    • Record: 43-39 (Under)
  • Charlotte Hornets (42.5 wins): Under (62.22%)
    • Record: 36-46 (Under)
  • Washington Wizards (42.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
    • Record: 49-33 (Over)
  • Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (54.42%)
    • Record: 29-53 (Under)
  • Miami Heat (34.5 wins): Under (61.45%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Over)

Northwest (1-4)

  • Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Over)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Under)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
    • Record: 47-35 (Over)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
    • Record: 31-51 (Under)
  • Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
    • Record: 40-42 (Over)

Southwest (3-2)

  • San Antonio Spurs (58.5 wins): Under (57.4%)
    • Record: 61-21 (Over)
  • Houston Rockets (44 wins): Over (52.76%)
    • Record: 55-27 (Over)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 wins): Over (59.69%)
    • Record: 43-39 (Over)
  • Dallas Mavericks (38.5 wins): Over (69.71%)
    • Record: 33-49 (Under)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (37 wins): Under (70.9%)
    • Record: 34-48 (Under)

Pacific (3-2)

  • Golden State Warriors (66.5 wins): Over (67.32%)
    • Record: 67-15 (Over)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (53.5 wins): Over (61.96%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Under)
  • Sacramento Kings (34 wins): Under (58.1%)
    • Record: 32-50 (Under)
  • Phoenix Suns (30 wins): Over (52.6%)
    • Record: 24-58 (Under)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (24.5 wins): Over (65.92%)
    • Record: 26-56 (Over)

On the whole, we were just 13-17 when it came to accurately predicting over/unders for 2016/17, so hopefully no one took our votes to Vegas before the season got underway.

Before the season, our readers were most bullish on the Pacers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Bucks to outperform expectations, but ultimately only Milwaukee exceeded their projected win total out of that group. The other four teams fell multiple games short.

Our readers were most bearish on the Pelicans, Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets, and Heat, strongly voting for the under in each case. However, Denver, Utah, and Miami all exceeded expectations, surpassing their projected win totals.

Which teams disappointed or impressed you most based on preseason expectations? Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.

Retweet 4 Share 0 Send via email0

2017 NBA Award Picks: Executive Of The Year

April 13th, 2017 at 12:34pm CST by Hoops Rumors

Now that the 2016/17 NBA regular season has come to an end, we’ll be making our picks for the year’s major awards. The Hoops Rumors writing team has weighed in with our picks below, but we also want to know which players, coaches, and executives you think are most deserving of the hardware this season, so jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.

We’re kicking things off today with the award for Executive of the Year. Here are our selections:

Dana Gauruder: Daryl Morey (Rockets)Daryl Morey vertical
The Rockets spent big bucks on free agents and those moves paid off. Eric Gordon stayed healthy for a change and emerged as the second-league scorer and Ryan Anderson filled the role of stretch four. A trade deadline move gave them another valuable piece – Lou Williams – for the playoffs.

Austin Kent: Bob Myers (Warriors)
The Warriors added a top-five player without disrupting their 73-win core. We can try to come up with excuses to give the award to somebody else, but that’s all they are — excuses. The addition of Kevin Durant may have interfered with the team’s flow at the beginning of the season but there’s no denying that the organization is in a better place in the long run. This front office hasn’t made many moves since the summer, but the few moves they’ve made have been smart and calculated. I give them full credit for adding Zaza Pachulia as a bargain bin replacement for Andrew Bogut and recognizing JaVale McGee’s value when other teams failed to.

Chris Crouse: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
Dwight Howard may no longer be the force he was during his prime, but he’s still a top center in the league and losing those types of players are supposed to hurt a franchise. The Rockets didn’t flinch when he left and part of the reason was the presence of Clint Capela. Morey had faith in the young center and that allowed him to use the majority of his resources to upgrade the team’s other positions.

Adding players is only part of the job of GM; knowing what you already have is equally as important. Morey deserves credit for assembling a team of shooters around James Harden, but he wouldn’t have been able to make some of his offseason moves if he didn’t have a great pulse on what he already had in-house. He checks all the Executive of the Year boxes for me.

Arthur Hill: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
After hiring Mike D’Antoni as coach last summer, Morey fully committed to the D’Antoni style of play. The Rockets have favored the 3-pointers and layups philosophy since Morey took over in 2007, but they never had the shooters to make it really work. This year, Morey signed Gordon and Anderson in free agency, then traded for Williams at the deadline. Add in the signing of veteran center Nene to a team-friendly deal, and it’s easy to see what the Rockets increased their win total by 14 games.

Luke Adams: John Hammond (Bucks)
Hammond’s work in free agency last summer wasn’t overly impressive, with lucrative long-term deals for Miles Plumlee and Mirza Teletovic not working out as planned. But newly-added Matthew Dellavedova was a crucial rotation piece in Milwaukee this season, and Hammond did excellent work in other areas.

Landing Tony Snell and Michael Beasley in two offseason trades in exchange for players who weren’t in the Bucks’ long-term plans was deft, as was snagging potential Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in the second round of the draft and dumping Plumlee’s contract at the deadline. Meanwhile, many observers expected the Bucks to get whatever they could for Greg Monroe in a trade, but Hammond hung onto him and watched as he became one of the league’s most effective bench scorers. He also ignored calls to tank when Jabari Parker went down — that turned out to be the right decision, as the Bucks finished the season on an impressive 20-11 run, climbing to No. 6 in the East.

Who is your pick for Executive of the Year? Share your choices and your thoughts in the comments section below!

Schedule:
April 14: Coach of the Year
April 17: Most Improved Player
April 18: Sixth Man of the Year
April 19: Defensive Player of the Year
April 20: Rookie of the Year
April 21: MVP

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Retweet 6 Share 0 Send via email0

2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 13th, 2017 at 8:37am CST by Luke Adams

With the NBA’s 2016/17 regular season now in the books, the odds for this year’s draft lottery have been set. With the help of our Reverse Standings, as well as information from LotteryBucket.com, here is the 2017 lottery order, along with each team’s chances of landing a top pick:

  1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
    • No. 1: 25.0%
    • Top-3: 64.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 4
    • Note: Celtics acquire pick due to ability to swap first-round picks with Nets.
  2. Phoenix Suns
    • No. 1: 19.9%
    • Top-3: 55.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 5
  3. Los Angeles Lakers
    • No. 1: 15.6%
    • Top-3: 46.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 6
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Sixers if not in top 3 (odds: 53.1%).
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
    • No. 1: 14.7%
    • Top-3: 45.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 7
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, so their No. 1 and top-3 odds are a little higher than they otherwise would be. No. 1 and top-3 odds for Sixers’ own pick are 11.9% and 37.8%, respectively.
  5. Orlando Magic
    • No. 1: 8.8%
    • Top-3: 29.12%
    • Lowest pick: No. 8
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 9
    • Note: Timberwolves won tiebreaker with Knicks.
  7. New York Knicks
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 10
    • Note: Knicks lost tiebreaker with Timberwolves.
  8. Sacramento Kings
    • No. 1: N/A
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 11
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, rendering No. 1 pick impossible and greatly reducing odds of top-3 pick.
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Bulls if not in top 10 (odds: 0.01%).
  9. Dallas Mavericks
    • No. 1: 1.7%
    • Top-3: 6.1%
    • Lowest pick: No. 12
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
    • No. 1: 1.1%
    • Top-3: 4.0%
    • Lowest pick: No. 13
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Kings if not in top 3 (odds: 96.0%).
  11. Charlotte Hornets
    • No. 1: 0.8%
    • Top-3: 2.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  12. Detroit Pistons
    • No. 1: 0.7%
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  13. Denver Nuggets
    • No. 1: 0.6%
    • Top-3: 2.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  14. Miami Heat
    • No. 1: 0.5%
    • Top-3: 1.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
Retweet 12 Share 0 Send via email0

Playoff, Lottery Implications For Wednesday’s Games

April 12th, 2017 at 3:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Wednesday is the last day of the 2016/17 regular season, and for many teams, there’s not a whole lot to play for tonight. A number of playoff seeds are already locked in, while other teams have been out of contention for weeks. The Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Bucks, and Cavaliers are among the teams expected to rest players tonight, and that’s just in the Eastern Conference.

Still, nearly every single game on tonight’s slate will have some sort of impact on playoff or draft lottery seeding, and a couple playoff spots in the East remain up for grabs. As such, it’s worth running through each game on the slate and identifying the importance of each contest.

Our notes below relate to playoff seeding, draft lottery positioning, and traded draft picks that may be affected by tonight’s results. If a team’s draft pick might improve from No. 22 to No. 21 with a loss tonight, that’s not something we’d mention here. But if a team can improve its draft lottery odds with a loss, or if a traded pick will be impacted by a result, we’ve made a note of that.

For a full breakdown of draft positioning, be sure to check out our 2016/17 NBA reverse standings (note: our reverse standings don’t currently account for playoff tiebreakers, so they have the Heat in playoff position rather than the Bulls — those teams should be flipped).

Here’s what to watch for in tonight’s games:

Milwaukee Bucks (42-39) at Boston Celtics (52-29)

  • Playoff implications: Celtics clinch No. 1 seed in East with win (or Cavaliers loss).
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: None

Brooklyn Nets (20-61) at Chicago Bulls (40-41)

  • Playoff implications: Bulls clinch No. 7 seed in East with win and Pacers loss. Bulls clinch No. 8 seed with win and Pacers win (or loss and Heat loss). Bulls eliminated with loss and Heat win.
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Bulls enter draft lottery with loss and Heat win.

Toronto Raptors (50-31) at Cleveland Cavaliers (51-30)

  • Playoff implications: Cavaliers clinch No. 1 seed in East with win and Celtics loss.
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Raptors will send their own 2017 first-round pick to Magic with win and Clippers loss. Raptors will send Clippers’ 2017 first-round pick to Magic with loss and Clippers win. If Raptors and Clippers both win (or lose), coin flip will determine which pick Magic receive.

Minnesota Timberwolves (31-50) at Houston Rockets (54-27)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Timberwolves‘ lottery odds will increase with loss and Knicks win. Timberwolves’ lottery odds will decrease with win and Mavericks or Kings loss.

Atlanta Hawks (43-38) at Indiana Pacers (41-40)

  • Playoff implications: Pacers clinch No. 7 seed in East with win (or with Bulls and Heat losses). Pacers clinch No. 8 seed with loss and either Bulls or Heat win. Pacers eliminated with loss and Bulls and Heat wins.
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Pacers enter draft lottery with loss and Bulls and Heat wins. If Pacers miss playoffs, their 2017 second-round pick (protected 45-60) will be sent to Nets.

Washington Wizards (49-32) at Miami Heat (40-41)

  • Playoff implications: Heat clinch No. 7 seed with win and Pacers and Bulls losses. Heat clinch No. 8 seed with win and Bulls win and Pacers loss (or with win and Pacers win and Bulls loss). Heat eliminated with loss (or with Pacers and Bulls wins).
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Heat enter draft lottery with loss or with Pacers and Bulls wins.

Philadelphia 76ers (28-53) at New York Knicks (30-51)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Sixers‘ lottery odds will increase with loss and Magic win. Sixers’ lottery odds will decrease with win and Magic loss. Knicks‘ lottery odds will decrease with win and Timberwolves loss.

Detroit Pistons (37-44) at Orlando Magic (28-53)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Magic‘s lottery odds will increase with loss and Sixers win. Magic‘s lottery odds will decrease with win and Sixers loss.

Denver Nuggets (39-42) at Oklahoma City Thunder (47-34)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Nuggets‘ lottery odds will decrease with win and Bulls or Heat loss.

Dallas Mavericks (32-49) at Memphis Grizzlies (43-38)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Mavericks‘ lottery odds will increase with loss and Timberwolves or Kings win. Mavericks‘ odds will decrease with win and Kings or Pelicans losses.

San Antonio Spurs (61-20) at Utah Jazz (50-31)

  • Playoff implications: Jazz clinch No. 4 seed in West with win and Clippers loss.
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: None

Los Angeles Lakers (26-55) at Golden State Warriors (66-15)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: None

Sacramento Kings (32-49) at Los Angeles Clippers (50-31)

  • Playoff implications: Clippers clinch No. 4 seed in West with win (or Jazz loss).
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Kings‘ lottery odds will increase with loss and Timberwolves or Mavericks wins. Kings‘ lottery odds will decrease with win and Mavericks or Pelicans losses. If Kings‘ lottery odds decrease, so too would their odds of keeping their top-10-protected 2017 first-round pick.

New Orleans Pelicans (33-48) at Portland Trail Blazers (41-40)

  • Playoff implications: None
  • Draft lottery/traded pick implications: Pelicans‘ lottery odds will increase with loss and Kings or Mavericks wins. If Pelicans‘ lottery odds increase, so too would their odds of keeping their top-three protected 2017 first-round pick.
Retweet 11 Share 0 Send via email0

Send Your Best Blog Posts Our Way

April 12th, 2017 at 11:03am CST by Austin Kent

Hoops Rumors will be expanding how we engage with the basketball blogosphere and ramping up our current Hoops Links offerings. We love what the blog community means to the sports world and want to make sure that we shine a light on the best original content pumped out by journalists and fans alike.

Typically, we’ve posted our weekly round-up of the blogosphere’s best content on Sundays. That will change going forward so that we can publish our weekly celebration of the internet’s top material during the middle of the week when readers are chained to their cubicles desperate for distraction material.

Help us help you be that distraction material.

My name is Austin Kent and I’ll be the primary point of contact for this venture heading forward, you can get at me on Twitter at @AustinKent. With or without content submissions, I’ll be constantly scouring the web for the best blog content, the funniest material, and the most thought provoking analysis printed on this here contraption we call the internet.

If you’ve put your blood, sweat and tears into an original long-form feature for your own independent blog, send it my way. If you know of a particularly entertaining post from a major networked blog, yeah, we want that too. At the end of the day, we want the highest quality content churned out by the fan community, regardless of the publication’s pedigree, and we want it all.

This is a green light to promote your favorite blogs, even if that blog is your own. Just be aware that we receive a significant volume of submissions and will only be able to share the best of the best with our readers.

What are you waiting for? It’s time to start generating content.

Twitter: @AustinKent
Email: HoopsRumorsTips@sports.ws

Retweet 3 Share 0 Send via email0

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Two-Way Contracts

April 11th, 2017 at 10:07am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement didn’t undergo a significant overhaul during the latest round of negotiations between the league and the players’ union, but the NBA’s new two-way contract represents one major change. The two-way contract will allow clubs to retain the NBA rights for a couple extra players, bumping each team’s maximum roster size from 15 to 17, with those two new spots reserved for players on two-way contracts.

Up until now, teams have had the ability to assign certain players on their NBA rosters to the G League for assignments, but haven’t retained any NBA control over the rest of the players on their NBADL affiliates. Two-way contracts will change that, since they’re essentially G League contracts that allow a player’s NBA team to call him up for NBA assignments and prevent him from being poached by a rival NBA club.

Salary cap guru Larry Coon recently published a primer for two-way contracts over at ESPN.com, so with the help of his breakdown and the new CBA, we’ll present the key details on how these deals work. Let’s dive in…

Read more

Retweet 22 Share 0 Send via email0

Key 2017 NBA Offseason Dates

April 10th, 2017 at 11:14am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2016/17 regular season coming to an end, many teams have already shifted their focus to the offseason, and others will soon follow suit. With that in mind, it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the 2016/17 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months. Here’s a breakdown:

April 12 — Last day of regular season. Luxury tax penalties calculated based on payroll as of this day.

April 14 — Playoff rosters set (2:00pm CT).

April 15 — Playoffs begin.

April 24 — Deadline for early entrants to declare for draft (10:59pm CT).

May 9-14 — Draft combine.

May 16 – Draft lottery.

May 24 — Last day for early entrants to withdraw from draft and retain their NCAA eligibility.

June 12 — Deadline for early entrants to withdraw from draft (4:00pm CT).

June 18 — Latest possible date for end of NBA Finals.

June 22 — Draft day.

June 24 — Last day for potential restricted free agents to exercise player options.

June 26 — NBA awards show.

June 29 — Last day for decisions on player, team and early termination options, unless individual contracts specify otherwise.

June 30 — Last official day of 2016/17 league year; last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

July 1 — Official start of 2017/18 league year; July moratorium begins. Free agents can begin reaching verbal agreements with teams.

July 6 — July moratorium ends (11:00am CT); teams can begin officially signing players and making trades.

July 13 — Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

July 15 — Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned first-round picks; those players become free agents on July 16 if not tendered.

August 31 — Last day teams may waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2017/18 salaries.

September 5 — Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks; those players become free agents on September 6 if not tendered.

Late September (specific dates TBA) — Training camps open.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.

Retweet 10 Share 0 Send via email0

Hoops Rumors Originals: 4/1/17 – 4/8/17

April 8th, 2017 at 12:48pm CST by Austin Kent

Throughout the week, the Hoops Rumors staff likes to publish original content to supplement our news feed. Here are some of our favorites from the week that was.

Retweet 1 Share 0 Send via email0

Community Shootaround: Shooting At The Buzzer In Decided Game

April 8th, 2017 at 11:33am CST by Austin Kent

Count Courtney Lee among the latest NBA players to complain about opponents putting up shots in the final seconds of a decided game. On Friday night the Grizzlies laid waste to Lee’s Knicks, culminating in rookie Wade Baldwin IV standing at half-court with the ball and a 10-point lead as the game clock neared expiration.

Just before time ran out, however, Baldwin hoisted a deep three and nailed it. The basket pushed the Grizzlies above the triple-digit mark earning Memphis fans in attendance free chicken.

Lee, unhappy to lose by 10 but considerably angrier losing by 13, went after the rookie but was thwarted by a handful of Grizzlies veterans.

“For him to do that, what are you doing it for, bro?,” Lee told Marc Berman of the New York Post. “Think about the people who’s doing it. They got bad luck in this league. … I don’t know what made him want to do it.”

Lee’s reaction is a common one among NBA players but should it be?

Just last week Lance Stephenson incited his own commotion by adding a layup in the final seconds of a win over the Raptors. Then, Raptors shooting guard DeMar DeRozan called the moot field goal “disrespectful to the game“. This, naturally, was followed up by Stephenson exposing an instance of DeRozan’s teammate Norman Powell doing similar to the Sixers earlier this season.

Ultimately, the NBA and fan community that drives it need to decide what is permissible in the waning seconds of a ball game and what’s just sour grapes. In response to the Stephenson/Raptors theatrics, Bobby Marks of The Vertical  tweeted “I’m so tired of these unwritten rules in basketball. If you don’t want a player to shoot at the end of the game then play some D.”

On one hand, it’s easy to empathize with players like Lee or DeRozan who see the unnecessary field-goal attempts as salt in the wounds of a fresh defeat. On the other, its a thin line expecting everybody to subscribe to the same unwritten rules of a game.

Should players adopt Marks’ stance and play defense if preserving a spread is so important to them? Or should players on the winning end know not to shoot when the game is out of reach?

Factors to consider are that some veterans will go so far as to let the shot clock expire before hoisting a shot at the buzzer resulting in their being assigned a turnover. Another is the fan factor, such as that which was in effect for Baldwin IV. Reaching certain point milestones, usually 100 points, can sometimes trigger benefits for fans in attendance. Does this impact the appropriateness of a last second basket?

You tell us in the comments below!

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0

Potential 2017 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 7th, 2017 at 11:22am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which will go into effect on July 1, 2017, includes a number of changes to the free agent process, including some that apply specifically to restricted free agents. However, one aspect of restricted free agency unaffected by the new CBA is what’s referred to as the “starter criteria,” which can affect how much an RFA’s qualifying offer will be worth.

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2015/16 and 35 in 2016/17, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons exceeds 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player ensures that a team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet, and gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO. Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. Still, those QOs can have an impact on a team’s salary cap outlook during July’s free agent period, so it’s worth checking in to see which potential RFAs will be eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers this summer.

Listed below are the top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,187,598.

Len and Noel had the worst QO luck this season. As the fifth and sixth overall picks in 2013, they would have been in line for qualifying offers worth about $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively. Instead, their QOs will be worth less than $4.2MM. Both players were very close to meeting the starter criteria too — they’ve started 77 games apiece in the past two years, so they’ll fall just short of the 82 required.

The players listed below are non-lottery first-round picks who will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,588,840.

All four of these players were selected in the 20-26 range in the 2013 draft, and their QOs would’ve ranged from about $3.39MM to $3.22MM if they hadn’t met the starter criteria.

Here are the rest of the RFAs whose qualifying offers won’t necessarily be determined by the standard criteria:

  • Undrafted power forward JaMychal Green (Grizzlies) has met the starter criteria, putting him in line for a QO worth $2,820,497 instead of the more modest amount he would’ve received as a minimum-salary player.
  • Two players – Joe Ingles (Jazz) and Ben McLemore (Kings) – still have a chance to meet the starter criteria depending on how the season’s last four days play out. Ingles has played 1,848 minutes this season, meaning he would have to average about 38 MPG in Utah’s last four contests to reach 2,000, which is a tall order. McLemore may fall just short as well, as he currently sits at 79 starts over the last two seasons. He’ll need to start three of the Kings’ last four games in order to average 41 starts per year, but he has only been in Sacramento’s starting lineup twice since the start of March. (End-of-season update: Neither Ingles nor McLemore met the starter criteria.)
Retweet 8 Share 0 Send via email0
Load More Posts