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Community Shootaround: Orlando Magic

December 12th, 2016 at 10:22pm CST by Austin Kent

The Magic made several moves over the course of the offseason suggesting they were hopeful to compete for a playoff bid as early as this season. Five games below .500 mid-way through December, however, it’s clear that they may still have some work to do.

With December 15th fast approaching – the first day that offseason free agent signings are eligible to be traded – speculation has picked up that the club could make a move to add more offense. As discussed earlier this month, the Magic rank 29th in points per possession and could benefit from the addition of a scorer or two.

If a deal is in the cards for Orlando, could Mario Hezonja be a part of the outgoing package as implied by implied by Marc Stein? The club also holds a handful of expiring contracts that could similarly appeal to teams looking to make something happen, including summer acquisitions Serge Ibaka and Jeff Green.

Additionally, let’s not forget the criticism the franchise’s front office faced when they added Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo to a reasonably healthy front court that already included Nikola Vucevic.

Does something have to give if the Magic hope to turn things around?

Weigh in for yourself in the comment section below!

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Weekly Mailbag: 12/5/16 – 12/11/16

December 11th, 2016 at 11:40am CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

With the Indiana Pacers really struggling despite having a talented team, what are the chances of Monta Ellis being traded? He is having an awful season, but he is also not getting the ball. — Matthew Cho

The Pacers are off to a disappointing 12-12 start and Ellis has been a major reason why. He is averaging just 9.7 points per game, the lowest since his rookie season, and is taking about half the number of shots he did in Dallas two years ago. With Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles and Glenn Robinson III as wing options, Indiana would be fine if Ellis were no longer on the roster. The key is finding a team that still believes in the 31-year-old, who still has two more seasons and nearly $23MM left on the free agent contract he signed with the Pacers in 2015. The Magic, with former Indiana coach Frank Vogel, have been mentioned as a possibility, but no trade talks have been reported between the teams.

Where do you think is the next destination is for Bobby Brown, who was recently released by the Rockets? — Eugene Ahn

Brown was the roster casualty when Houston matched the Nets’ offer sheet for Donatas Motiejunas. If the 32-year-old guard wants to keep playing, he will probably have to do it overseas. He has been in the Euroleague, China and Japan in recent years and could probably find another opportunity in any of those places. Brown overcame long odds when he earned a roster spot with the Rockets after six seasons out of the NBA. However, he appeared in just six games and created a minor international incident when he signed his name on the Great Wall of China.

Of the European and Chinese players whose draft rights are held, who is most likely to come over? Alessandro Gentile seemed to be close to signing with Houston until they hired Mike D’Antoni, and Bogdan Bogdanovic seems to be on the rise in Turkey. Zhou Qi and Wang Zhelin were drafted last year, but only Qi has seemed to have met with the team that drafted him. Also, would it be worth the Spurs trading for the rights to Bogdanovic to replace Manu Ginobili when he calls time? — Chris Hawkins

It would probably be hard to pry Bogdanovic away from the Kings, who are extremely high on him after acquiring his rights in a draft day trade. At 24, the 6’6″ shooting guard is one of the top players in the Euroleague and was a star on the Serbian national team. He is expected to come to the NBA next season, and will almost certainly be in a Kings uniform. It’s always a guessing game to try and figure out which overseas players are ready for the NBA, but it’s a good idea to keep an eye on first-round picks and monitor their progress.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 12/3/16 – 12/10/16

December 10th, 2016 at 12:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Here’s a look back at the original content and analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week:

  • Dana Gauruder provided an extensive primer for Ricky Rubio‘s trade candidacy, explaining why the Timberwolves might consider a deal and which teams could be a fit.
  • When Donatas Motiejunas was engaged in a standoff with the Rockets, I broke down five ways I could see the situation playing out. Ultimately, it was scenario number four that won out.
  • In a new feature, Chris Crouse identified some players worth picking up or targeting in fantasy basketball, with a focus on players in new roles or on new teams.
  • I took a closer look at the teams that have used D-League assignments the most so far this year, and the players that have frequently been shuttled up and down as a result.
  • Will Joseph highlighted a handful of interesting basketball blog posts in the latest installment of his weekly Hoops Links feature.
  • Arthur Hill answered reader questions in our Weekly Mailbag. Here’s how you can submit your own questions for our mailbag feature.
  • We had a handful of Community Shootaround discussions this week, on the following topics:
  • Be sure to keep tabs on our 2016/17 NBA Reverse Standings feature, which is updated daily to reflect the previous night’s results.
  • Here’s a rundown of a number of the site’s notable features.
  • If you haven’t already, be sure to download the Trade Rumors app for your iOS or Android device.
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Community Shootaround: 2016 NBA Draft Class

December 10th, 2016 at 10:28am CST by Luke Adams

In the wake of the 2016 NBA draft, No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons was considered the early frontrunner for the 2016/17 Rookie of the Year award. However, a foot injury derailed Simmons’ chances, and it’s his teammate Joel Embiid that now looks like the heavy favorite to be named this season’s Rookie of the Year.

Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com, who breaks down the league’s top rookies on a weekly basis in his “Rookie Ladder” feature, has Embiid atop his most recent list, with Sixers teammate Dario Saric at number two. However, while Embiid and Saric are technically NBA rookies, having never appeared in a game before this year, both players are members of the 2014 draft class. Embiid, the No. 3 overall pick in 2014, missed his first two seasons due to injury, while 12th overall pick Saric remained overseas for two more years before arriving stateside.

The 2016 draft class, sans Simmons so far, is certainly represented on Howard-Cooper’s list. But according to the NBA.com scribe, it’s Malcolm Brogdon, a second-round pick, who ranks as 2016’s most impressive rookie so far. Top picks like Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram show up a little further down the list, while others, such as Kris Dunn, Jaylen Brown, and Buddy Hield aren’t mentioned at all.

Meanwhile, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders observes (via Twitter), only two rookies – Embiid and Willy Hernangomez – have an above-average PER through the first quarter of the 2016/17 season, with late first-round picks or second-rounders like Pascal Siakam, Tyler Ulis, Brogdon, and Deyonta Davis showing up among the top 10 in PER.

There are typically some growing pains for rookies as they adjust to the NBA schedule and the NBA game, but prospects like Dunn and Hield, who played four years of college ball, were expected to have an impact right away. And Ingram was right there with Simmons as a consensus top-two player in the draft. So far, their play has been up and down.

That brings us to today’s discussion question: Which top picks in the 2016 draft class have impressed or disappointed you so far? Will those top picks who are struggling in the early going turn things around, or have you altered your view of their long-term outlook at all? And which of the later picks in the draft have stood out to you?

Jump into the comments section below to weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s draft class!

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Submit Your Questions For Hoops Rumors Mailbag

December 9th, 2016 at 8:45pm CST by Eddie Scarito

We at Hoops Rumors love interacting with our readers. This is why we provide an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in our weekly mailbag feature, which is posted each Sunday.

Have a question regarding player movement, free agent rumors, the salary cap, the NBA draft, or the top storylines of the week? You can e-mail them here: hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com. Feel free to send emails throughout the week, but please be mindful that we may receive a sizable number of questions and might not get to all of them.

If you missed out on any past mailbags and would like to catch up, you can view the full archives here.

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Trade Candidate: Ricky Rubio

December 8th, 2016 at 5:36pm CST by Dana Gauruder

In the months leading up to February’s trade deadline, Hoops Rumors will be taking a closer look at several players we consider trade candidates, discussing their value, speculating on potential destinations, and explaining why they are – or should be – available. These players won’t necessarily be dealt in advance of the deadline, but it won’t be surprising if they are.
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Ricky Rubio, PG
Minnesota Timberwolves
2016/17 salary: $13,550,000
Eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2019
Trade restrictions: None

There seems to be an uneasy truce these days between the Timberwolves and their starting point guard. The way that the Timberwolves’ offseason unfolded, it’s somewhat surprising that Ricky Rubio remains their floor leader. It probably won’t be that way much longer, though Rubio has done little to enhance his trade value through the first six weeks of the season.

Once Tom Thibodeau was hired as the head coach and president of basketball operations, Rubio’s exit seemed like a foregone conclusion. Rubio was shopped prior to the draft, as Thibodeau pursued a deal for the Bulls’ Jimmy Butler. One of the reasons that that potential deal fell through was the Chicago wanted Zach LaVine, instead of Rubio, as part of the package.

The Timberwolves wound up with their fallback plan, which was to select the top point guard in the draft to presumably take Rubio’s job. Kris Dunn dropped to the No. 5 spot, which Thibodeau didn’t mind since he was reportedly atop his draft board.

Supposedly, Thibodeau got some offers for Rubio during the summer, but nothing that compelled him to pull the trigger. Eventually, the Timberwolves opted to take a wait-and-see approach, giving Dunn time to acclimate himself to the NBA game while Rubio held the fort as the starter during the early portion of the season.

What’s happened since the season began may not be a worse-case scenario, but it’s pretty close. First, Rubio missed five games with an elbow injury. Upon returning, his play has been substandard while the Timberwolves, who were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Western Conference, have floundered.

His shooting, never his strong suit anyway, has been woeful. He’s made 34.5% of his field-goal attempts and 22.9% of his 3-point tries. His assists are down to an average of 6.7 per game over 30.6 minutes, though his turnover numbers (1.9) remain respectable. His current 12.1 PER is well below the league average of 15.0.

By comparison, Rubio has averaged at least 8.6 assists per game the past three seasons while playing a comparable amount of minutes.

Perhaps the only reason why Rubio has kept his starting position is that Dunn struggled in the early going himself, though that appears to be changing. According to Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Dunn’s shot looked as good as it has all season on Tuesday, when he made all but one of his field-goal attempts and scored 15 points against the Spurs. Moreover, as Souhan noted, Rubio is the picture of frustration these days whose veteran leadership is being outweighed by his lack of production.

The pairing of Dunn and talented combo guard LaVine as the starting backcourt will probably happen soon. Minnesota also has another recent first-round pick, Tyus Jones, in line to take an expanded reserve role. The only reason to delay the inevitable at this point would be hope Rubio gets into a better groove, which would make it easier to move him.

Rubio’s contract, given the rise in salaries to coincidence with jump in the salary cap, is reasonable. He’s making $13.55MM this season and has two guaranteed years remaining at $14.25MM and $14.95MM, respectively. If another team views Rubio as an upgrade to their current point guard situation, those figures are certainly not prohibitive.

So which teams out there might want a flashy if offensively-challenged point man who at 26 years old should be in his prime? The Kings were reportedly one of his pursuers this summer and their point situation hasn’t improved. Darren Collison is averaging 4.7 assists, compared to 2.2 turnovers, and journeyman Ty Lawson is also getting steady playing time. Sacramento is overloaded with young bigs on its roster and has also been trying to move small forward Rudy Gay, who can become an unrestricted free agent after the season if he opts out.

Which other teams might be a match for Rubio? The Nets, who lead the league in having offer sheets to restricted free agents matched, have been looking to upgrade their roster. Current starter Jeremy Lin has been injured and seems like a short-term fix, anyway, with rookie Isaiah Whitehead behind him.

The suddenly woebegone Mavericks could seek a younger replacement to Deron Williams and the Pelicans might consider such a move, considering Jrue Holiday is oft-injured and heading into the free agent market this summer.

The Sixers, with Sergio Rodriguez currently running the show, could use a heady point guard to feed the ball to their stable of bigs. Another intriguing option might be the Spurs, taking into account Tony Parker‘s mileage and recent injury history. The Hawks chose to hand the controls of their attack to Dennis Schroder but with an offense currently ranked No. 27 in efficiency, they might rethink that plan.

Minnesota could also wait on a contender that suffers a point guard injury — the Grizzlies and Mike Conley already fit that category, though they’re paying Conley way too much to take on a salary like Rubio’s as a fill-in at the same position.

Rubio is undoubtedly a better player than he’s shown this season. In his last two full seasons — he was injured most of the 2014/15 campaign — he had a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 2.3 each time. That translates to approximately six wins per season over a replacement player. Rubio is not only one of the league’s most prolific distributors, he’s typically near the top of the steals categories, generating a couple of easy baskets per game for his club.

What’s apparent is that Rubio is not the long-term starter for Minnesota. By drafting Dunn in the lottery, the Timberwolves basically told Rubio that he was just a placeholder for their preferred option at the point. If Rubio is still wearing their uniform by the end of the season, it will speak more toward his declining trade value than their reluctance to give him a fresh start.

What do you think? Should the Timberwolves trade or keep Rubio? Which team would be the best fit for Rubio? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and possible trade ideas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Jonas Valanciunas

December 8th, 2016 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

After Jonas Valanciunas was a non-factor in another Raptors loss to the Cavaliers earlier this week, Ryan Wolstat of The Toronto Sun wrote that he was no longer convinced about the big man’s fit in Toronto. As talented as Valanciunas is, and as much promise as he is, the Raptors’ system runs through Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, meaning the club isn’t necessarily getting as much as it could out of Valanciunas.

Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca echoes this sentiment in a piece on Wednesday night, suggesting that Valanciunas’ development “has stalled some.” As Lewenberg observes, the Raptors have been playing some of their best ball lately without the young center playing a major role.

“I think a lot of it, and probably I’ll take the blame for it, is being in and out of the lineup because of the match-up situations,” Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said, per Lewenberg. “It doesn’t garner a lot of confidence and that probably has jerked him around a little bit. Every player goes through a situation where they’re not shooting the ball well, not scoring the way they’d like to. He’s not going to forget how to score, he’ll bounce back. At the same time, we’ve got to continue to try and win games, that’s our mission, our goal as he fights through it.”

According to Lewenberg, there’s no indication that the Raptors are exploring a potential trade involving Valanciunas, or even considering such a move at this point. The team won’t mortgage its future in an attempt for a short-term fix, and the former fifth overall pick is still just 24 years old and is under contract at a reasonable rate through at least 2018/19.

Still, Valanciunas’ age, potential, and contract would all make him a valuable trade chip as well, and if the Raptors like their current roster and believe they’re just one piece away from taking the next step and posing a serious challenge to the Cavaliers in the playoffs, it could make sense to explore a possible deal.

What do you think? Does it make sense for the Raptors to explore a possible Valanciunas trade to see if they could add a more compatible piece or two to their roster? Or should the team hang onto him, doing everything it can to continue his development and make him a long-term fit in Toronto? Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts!

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McCullough, Caboclo Leaders In D-League Assignments

December 7th, 2016 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

More NBA teams than ever have their own D-League affiliates in 2016/17, with three expansion D-League clubs joining the mix this year to bring the league’s count to 22 total teams. The NBA’s other eight teams can still send players to the D-League using the flexible assignment rule, but they may not be as inclined to do so as the clubs that operate and control their affiliates.

As expected, during the first month of the D-League’s season, the NBA teams most frequently assigning and recalling players from their affiliates generally met two criteria:

  1. They have young players on their roster who aren’t necessarily ready for regular NBA minutes, or can’t crack the NBA rotation.
  2. They’re geographically adjacent to their D-League affiliates, making it easy to send a player down for a practice, then recall him later in the day.

As Anthony Puccio of NetsDaily wrote last week, no team has taken advantage of the close proximity of a D-League affiliate quite like the Nets, who are temporarily sharing venues with the Long Island Nets, their new D-League squad. Long Island’s new building won’t be ready until the 2017/18 season, so when both teams are playing at home, it’s very easy for Brooklyn to send players back and forth between the NBA and the D-League. Chris McCullough has been the player most frequently affected, having already been assigned to Long Island nine times this season.

Like the Nets, the Raptors have a D-League affiliate that plays nearby — the Raptors 905 are based in Mississauga, a city in the Greater Toronto Area. And like McCullough with the Nets, Bruno Caboclo has been shuttled back and forth nine times between the NBA and D-League already this season, as Toronto takes advantage of having its D-League affiliate in the area.

While many NBA teams have established D-League teams – or relocated them – to ensure that sort of geographical proximity, not every club has done so. The Heat, for instance, might be more willing to assign and recall players from their D-League club more frequently if it wasn’t located in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The distance between American Airlines Arena and the Sanford Pentagon (where the Skyforce play)? Over 1,800 miles.

Here are the players with the most D-League assignments early on in the 2016/17 season:

Information from RealGM.com was used in the creation of this post.

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2016/17 NBA Reverse Standings

December 7th, 2016 at 3:52pm CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2016/17 NBA season, Hoops Rumors will be maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on how the 2017 draft order will look. Our 2016/17 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, will be updated daily to reflect the previous night’s outcomes.

Our Reverse Standings take into account playoff teams in each conference, so they’re essentially a reflection of what 2017’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. In addition to not considering the results of the lottery, our tracker lists teams in random order when they have identical records. At the end of the year, those ties would be broken via random drawings.

Traded picks – and conditionally traded picks – are included via footnotes. For instance, the note next to the Kings‘ pick says that Sacramento will send its pick to the Bulls if it’s not in the top 10. If the Kings’ pick is in the top 10, the 76ers would have the right to swap selections, so that footnote is included next to the Sixers’ pick as well. As of today, the Kings are tied for the NBA’s eighth-worst record, meaning their pick would be safe.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on our right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.” It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2017. So be sure to check back often!

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What’s Next For Donatas Motiejunas?

December 7th, 2016 at 11:30am CST by Luke Adams

Donatas Motiejunas‘s free agency was already an unusual case before Tuesday, stretching out more than five months and extending well into the regular season. The saga finally appeared to be coming to an end within the last few days. Motiejunas signed a four-year offer sheet with the Nets, giving Houston 72 hours to match it, and the Rockets did just that, exercising their right of first refusal on Monday.Donatas Motiejunas vertical

However, in order to finalize the new deal with the Rockets, Motiejunas had to report for a physical within the next 48 hours. That exam was scheduled for Tuesday morning, but the 26-year-old was a no-show, with his agent confirming to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle that his client wasn’t reporting to the Rockets.

“We’re not going to show up. We’ll see what happens. We’ll see what the Rockets do,” agent B.J. Armstrong told Feigen. Speaking to ESPN, Armstrong added, “We know our rights. We don’t have a problem with the Rockets at all. We understand the rules fully.”

Motiejunas’ stance is an unusual one, since the CBA’s rules regarding restricted free agents and offer sheets are clearly laid out. The Rockets are reportedly in touch with Motiejunas’ camp to discuss potential options, and the veteran power forward still has time to report to the team, but at this point it’s not clear exactly what the next step will be for either side.

With some help from CBA expert Larry Coon, here are a few ways the situation could play out:

1. Motiejunas reports to the Rockets for his physical later today.

Perhaps the Rockets and Motiejunas’ reps will be able to sort through their differences and find some common ground today, paving the way for the forward to rejoin the team. It would be an abrupt about-face for Motiejunas and his camp, but considering he doesn’t have a ton of leverage, it might be his best move.

2. Motiejunas doesn’t report, but the Rockets keep their right of first refusal notice in place.

If the standoff between the two sides continues, it won’t have a significant impact on the Rockets, who have worked players like Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell into their rotation in Motiejunas’ absence. The Rockets won’t have to pay Motiejunas if he doesn’t report to the team, so they may simply be satisfied to wait out the situation, leaving the contract on the table for Motiejunas to finalize whenever he’s ready.

In this scenario, D-Mo would be stuck in limbo, unable to sign a new offer sheet with another team. As Coon points out, the CBA suggests Motiejunas also wouldn’t receive credit for a year of service if he “withholds playing services called for by a Player Contract or this Agreement for more than thirty (30) days after the Season begins.” In other words, he can’t just wait out the situation in the hopes of reaching unrestricted free agency next year.

3. Motiejunas doesn’t report, the Rockets withdraw their first refusal notice, and Motiejunas signs an offer sheet with a new team.

It’s possible that this is the outcome Motiejunas and Armstrong are hoping for, but there isn’t a ton of upside here. It took the former first-round pick five months to find a suitable offer sheet, and if the Rockets decide to return him to the market as a restricted free agent, he won’t be able to ink another deal with the Nets, who would be ineligible to sign him for one year. That means he’d be in the same situation as he was before, but one prime suitor with cap room would be out of the equation.

According to Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com, multiple sources indicate there was one other team in serious talks with Motiejunas before he signed the Nets’ deal. However, Brooklyn’s offer was more attractive than the one he received from that other team, and if the Rockets were willing to match this one, it seems likely they’d be willing to match the next offer he gets. It’s also worth noting that the Rockets would have little reason to let Motiejunas return to the RFA market if they believe there’s a chance he could get a better offer than his current one, since it would put them on the hook for more money.

In this scenario, Motiejunas would have until March 1 to sign a new offer sheet. After that, he’d have to work out a deal with the Rockets or he’d be on track to return to restricted free agency in the 2017/18 league year.

4. Motiejunas doesn’t report, the Rockets withdraw their first refusal notice, and Motiejunas and the Rockets work out a new deal.

The two sides were unable to compromise on a contract for months, but perhaps now that Motiejunas’ camp knows what kind of deal Houston is willing to match, negotiations would be simpler. Still, the terms of the Nets’ offer sheet were fairly reasonable for the Rockets, and it’s unclear why the team would be motivated to work out something new unless Motiejunas’ camp provided some incentive to do so.

5. Motiejunas doesn’t report, the Rockets withdraw their first refusal notice, and Motiejunas signs with a team overseas.

The possibility of signing with team in Europe or Asia has always been on the table for Motiejunas, but again, it doesn’t offer much upside. He would likely be hard-pressed to earn the kind of money overseas that he could in the NBA, and his restricted free agent status wouldn’t go away if he spent a year or two away from the NBA — he’d still be under the Rockets’ control as an RFA if and when he wanted to return.

6. ???

It’s possible that there’s a scenario Motiejunas and Armstrong have in mind that we’ve missed, but it’s not clear what “rights” the agent has referring to, since the CBA’s language on RFAs – which was collectively bargained and agreed to by the players’ union – doesn’t leave much room for interpretation. The player’s leverage in the system is limited.

My best guess at this point is that Motiejunas is willing to wait things out. If the Rockets return him to restricted free agency, perhaps he’ll pursue an offer sheet with the mystery team that was vying with the Nets for his services. If Houston leaves its first refusal notice in place, Motiejunas could report to the team and finalize his deal later in the season.

What do you think? How will things play out for Motiejunas and the Rockets?

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