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2023 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 16th, 2023 at 7:33am CST by Luke Adams

The 2023 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Nuggets and Lakers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm Central time.

This year’s draft pool features potential superstar Victor Wembanyama, who is widely considered to be the best prospect to enter the NBA draft since LeBron James in 2003.

Other prospects, including Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller, would make terrific consolation prizes, but every team with a lottery pick will enter Tuesday night dreaming on the possibility of landing the No. 1 selection and drafting the French phenom Wembanyama.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2023 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. San Antonio Spurs
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Portland Trail Blazers
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Indiana Pacers
  8. Washington Wizards
  9. Utah Jazz
  10. Dallas Mavericks
    • Note: The Knicks will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10.
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four.
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
  13. Toronto Raptors
  14. New Orleans Pelicans

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Hornets (12.5%), Trail Blazers (10.5%), Magic (9.0%), Pacers (6.8%), and Wizards (6.7%) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall pick.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Still, there haven’t been many huge surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.

The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.

Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shake-up in 2023. There’s a 19.2% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to about 1-in-5 odds, and this will be the fifth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Dallas and Chicago finished as lottery teams in 2022/23, but each may have to convey its first-round pick to another team, depending on Tuesday’s results.

The Mavericks traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Knicks, but would keep that selection if it lands within the top 10. There’s a 79.8% chance that will happen and a 20.2% chance it will slip to No. 11 or below and be sent to New York.

If Dallas retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2024 first-round pick (top-10 protected) to the Knicks.

The Bulls, meanwhile, owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. There’s just an 8.5% chance Chicago will hang onto that selection and a 91.5% chance it will fall between Nos. 11-14 and be sent to Orlando.

If the Bulls get lucky and move into the top four, they’d owe Orlando their 2024 first-round pick with top-three protection.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Ben Wallace (basketball operations and team engagement advisor)
    • Lottery room: Jon Phelps (senior director of basketball strategy)
  2. Houston Rockets

    • On stage: Ime Udoka (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  3. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: Peter J. Holt (team owner)
    • Lottery room: Brian Wright (general manager)
  4. Charlotte Hornets

    • On stage: Mark Williams
    • Lottery room: Buzz Peterson (general manager / senior VP of basketball operations)
  5. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Brandon Roy (former Trail Blazers player)
    • Lottery room: Sergi Oliva (assistant GM)
  6. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jamahl Mosley (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  7. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Tyrese Haliburton
    • Lottery room: Kevin Pritchard (president of basketball operations)
  8. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Brett Greenberg (assistant GM / strategy and analytics)
  9. Utah Jazz

  10. Dallas Mavericks

    • On stage: Nico Harrison (president of basketball operations / general manager)
    • Lottery room: Michael Finley (assistant GM / VP of player personnel)
  11. Chicago Bulls

    • On stage: Dalen Terry
    • Lottery room: Pat Connelly (assistant GM)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / amateur evaluation scout)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  13. Toronto Raptors

    • On stage: Bobby Webster (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Teresa Resch (VP of basketball operations)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans
    • On stage: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Bryson Graham (assistant GM)
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 14th, 2023 at 9:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Nothing about the Thunder‘s offseason moves in 2022 signaled that they were preparing to make a playoff push. Oklahoma City’s lottery selection, No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren, suffered a season-ending injury before training camps opened, and the team’s most notable offseason addition via free agency or trade was Isaiah Joe, who signed a low-cost contract days before the regular season began after being waived by Philadelphia.

But the young core the Thunder have been putting together since they began the process of rebuilding in 2019 finally began to look like something resembling a future contender this past season, even with Holmgren not yet a part of it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the leap to superstardom, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team; 2021 lottery pick Josh Giddey built on a promising rookie season by improving his numbers across the board, including bumping his shooting percentage from 41.9% to 48.2%; Luguentz Dort continued to establish himself as one of the NBA’s elite wing defenders; and 2022 lottery pick Jalen Williams made a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year honors, averaging 18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.3 APG on an incredible .546/.429/.880 shooting line after the All-Star break.

The Thunder didn’t make the playoffs, but they got pretty close. They finished the regular season as the No. 10 team in the West, then beat the Pelicans in their first play-in game before falling to the Timberwolves in the battle for the conference’s final playoff spot.

While the Thunder aren’t a contender yet, their days at the bottom of the NBA’s standings appear to be over for now. With Holmgren and another lottery pick set to join an already strong core and a plethora of extra future first-round picks and swaps still on hand, Oklahoma City is trending in the right direction and could be a force to be reckoned with in the West in just a couple of years.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

The hope of every tanking team is to luck into a top pick that can be used to draft a player capable of single-handedly transforming the franchise. There’s a player like that available in this year’s draft class – Victor Wembanyama is considered the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – but the Thunder’s unexpectedly strong season all but eliminated them from the Wembanyama sweepstakes — the club has just a 1.7% chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

That’s OK though. While Sam Presti and the Thunder’s front office would certainly love to add Wembanyama to the roster, this isn’t a team that desperately needs the French phenom like certain other clubs in the lottery. There’s already a very strong foundation here, and Oklahoma City’s stash of future picks puts the team in position to acquire another impact player without even touching the present core.

Still, I’d be surprised if a trade for a star is on the docket this summer. Presti and his group have shown a willingness to be patient throughout their rebuild, using their extra trade assets to target specific players they like in the draft rather than veterans.

That approach was on display last June when the Thunder traded three protected future first-rounders for the rights to the No. 11 pick, ensuring no team would be able to leapfrog them at No. 12 to snag Williams. The Thunder ultimately drafted Ousmane Dieng with the No. 11 pick, but subsequent reporting indicated Williams was the guy they wanted most in the back end of the lottery — they took him with their own pick at No. 12 in case their tentative agreement for No. 11 fell through before it became official.

Oklahoma City will most likely have the No. 12 pick again in this year’s draft. But if there’s a player a few spots higher that the front office wants badly enough, the team has the ammo necessary to go get him without compromising its future at all.

Eventually, the time may come to cash in some of those future draft picks for a win-now player, but the way the Thunder are building makes sense and has worked for Presti before; Kevin Durant, Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka were all drafted by the team between 2007-09. With no postseason-or-bust mandate facing him, Presti can continue to add promising young pieces to this core and assess which ones fit and which ones don’t before making any major moves to fill the necessary holes.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder won’t do anything interesting this summer. Taking into account the team’s 10 players on guaranteed contracts, plus Joe’s $2MM non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 12 overall pick, OKC could create upwards of $36MM in cap room.

In recent years, the Thunder have taken advantage of that sort of cap flexibility by accommodating salary dumps of unwanted contracts (think Kemba Walker and Derrick Favors) in order to acquire draft assets.

They’re more likely to go in that direction again than they are to go big-game hunting in free agency, but perhaps in those trade talks with cost-cutting teams the Thunder will prioritize acquiring useful rotation players rather than continuing to stockpile future draft picks. Even if they won’t be contending for a title in 2024, the Thunder might like to get their young players some playoff experience — adding a couple reliable role-playing veterans to their rotation would aid in that effort.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Aleksej Pokusevski, the lone Thunder player who is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Pokusevski, a seven-footer who can handle the ball, is still just 21 years old and has shown tantalizing potential in his first three NBA seasons, increasing his three-point percentage to 36.5% in 2022/23.

However, a leg injury essentially ended Pokusevski’s season on December 27 (he appeared in just three games after that), and OKC had a dismal minus-13.2 net rating and 118.7 defensive rating when he was on the court this season, easily the worst marks of any player on the roster. The Thunder will soon have to decide whether he has a place in their future.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 12 overall ($4,704,720)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 35 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 50 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  • No. 37 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 38 overall pick if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,704,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (veteran)
  • Dario Saric (veteran)
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Saric is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,264,629
  • Trade exception: $4,220,057
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $943,000
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $781,759
    • Note: Expires on September 27.

Note: If the Thunder go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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Community Shootaround: Sixers’ Decisions

May 14th, 2023 at 6:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It all came crashing down on the Sixers on Sunday afternoon.

They positioned themselves to reach the Eastern Conference Finals by taking a 3-2 lead over the Celtics in their second-round series. Philadelphia failed to close out Boston at home, then got humiliated with a second-half flop on the Celtics’ home floor on Sunday afternoon.

Coach Doc Rivers is in a familiar place, failing to get his team to over the hump in the postseason. Rivers couldn’t get the Clippers to take the next step and that pattern has repeated in Philadelphia.

Joel Embiid achieved the highest individual honor this season, capturing his first Most Valuable Player, but he was a no-show in Game 7. He went 5-for-18 from the field and finished with 15 points in 38 minutes. Embiid also committed four turnovers, one fewer than the team’s other star.

James Harden had a couple of huge games in the series but he fizzled out with two chances to close out the series. He scored 13 points in Game 6 and nine in Game 7 while committing a combined 10 turnovers in the two games.

Harden holds a player option on his contract and there has been plenty of speculation that he’s eyeing a return to Houston for the next chapter of his career. Tobias Harris will make over $39MM in the final year of his contract next season.

Tyrese Maxey will be eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be looking for big money, if not a max deal. The Sixers will have a lot of decisions to make regarding their bench as well, including whether to pursue some of their own free agents such as Paul Reed and Georges Niang.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Should the Sixers fire Doc Rivers after their latest postseason disappointment? Should top exec Daryl Morey go as well? Should they try to re-sign Harden if he opts out? How should they retool their roster to finally reach the Finals with Embiid in his prime?

Please take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Poll: Who Will Win Game 7 Of Celtics/Sixers?

May 14th, 2023 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

For just the second time this spring and the first time in the conference semifinals, we’re getting a Game 7.

The Celtics and Sixers will square off on Sunday afternoon for the right to face Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s the first Game 7 on the East’s side of the playoff bracket — the Kings and Warriors battled to seven games in the first round in the West.

It has been a back-and-forth series between Boston and Philadelphia, with the Sixers unexpectedly stealing Game 1 in Boston despite missing MVP center Joel Embiid. The Celtics responded by claiming the next two games to take a 2-1 lead, but Philadelphia fought back to go up 3-2 before dropping Game 6 at home.

As the higher seed and the home team, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites on Sunday, according to BetOnline.ag. But the fact that the game will be played in Boston offers no guarantees for the C’s. The home team in the series has gone just 2-4 so far, with each club losing multiple games in its own arena.

While the Sixers probably know what they can expect from Embiid, who has averaged 30.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG in his last four appearances after a shaky first game back from a knee injury, what they get from the big man’s co-star may go a long way toward determining whether they can pull off the upset win in Game 7. James Harden has put up 34.7 PPG on 60.7% shooting in Philadelphia’s three victories over Boston, but has averaged just 13.7 PPG and made 20.5% of his shots from the floor in the team’s three losses.

The Celtics, meanwhile, got a boost in Game 6 when they inserted center Robert Williams into their starting lineup for the first time in the series. Williams had 10 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks in one of his best games of the postseason. The Celtics, who won the game by nine points, outscored Philadelphia by 18 points during Williams’ 28 minutes. It’s probably safe to assume he’ll start again on Sunday.

Boston will also be hoping to see the version of Jayson Tatum who showed up during the final few minutes of Thursday’s game, helping the team overcome a late deficit and secure the victory. With the Celtics down by two points with under five minutes to play, Tatum made four of his final seven shots, all three-pointers, after having hit just 1-of-14 field goal attempts up until that point.

The Celtics were the deeper, more well-rounded team during the regular season and have shown off that depth in the postseason, but the Sixers have proven in the playoffs that they’re capable of winning any game when Embiid, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey – who has averaged 23.3 PPG in Philadelphia’s victories – are firing on all cylinders.

We want to know what you think. Who are you picking to win Game 7 this afternoon?

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 13th, 2023 at 2:31pm CST by Luke Adams

A playoff team for seven straight years from 2014-20, the Raptors won just 27 games in 2020/21 while playing their home games in Tampa due to COVID-related border restrictions, then got some lottery luck that spring, landing the No. 4 pick and nabbing Scottie Barnes.

When Toronto racked up 48 wins in 2021/22, it looked like that lost ’20/21 season would just be a blip on the radar, with the club poised to reclaim its place as a playoff fixture in the East. So it came as a major disappointment when the Raptors went just 41-41 in ’22/23, their worst record in a non-Tampa season since 2012/13, and were quickly eliminated from the play-in tournament.

On paper, the Raptors looked like a team that should have finished better than .500. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have All-Star appearances on their résumés and are still in their prime. Barnes was coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign. OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are the types of three-and-D players that every NBA team covets. And Toronto even addressed its hole in the middle by reacquiring Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio in February.

The individuals were better than the sum of the parts though, and a thin, inconsistent bench that lost Otto Porter to a foot injury early in the season didn’t help matters. Heading into the 2023 offseason, top executives Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster will have to determine which players are still considered long-term cornerstones and which might be expendable in trades to breathe new life into the roster.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

Before the Raptors make any player personnel decisions, they’ll have to determine who will be coaching the team this fall. Nick Nurse, an assistant on Dwane Casey‘s staff until 2018, won a championship in 2019 in his first year as head coach, then was named Coach of the Year in 2020. But his last few years were more of a mixed bag, with Nurse leaning too heavily on his starters and perhaps not connecting with his players in the same way he once did. The club parted ways with him last month.

Toronto’s list of interviewees is longer than that of any other team conducting a head coaching search this spring, with the team casting a wide net in its search for Nurse’s replacement. In addition to former NBA head coaches and current assistants, that list includes a EuroLeague coach (Sergio Scariolo), a WNBA coach (Becky Hammon), and a player-turned-TV-analyst (JJ Redick).

It’s hard to draw any conclusions about the Raptors’ search until we see how it ends, but the team at least seems willing to get creative and think outside the box as it seeks its new leader on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see whether Toronto’s eventual choice is one of those outside-the-box candidates or if the club will ultimately play it safe with a former NBA coach or experienced assistant.

As important as the head coaching decision is, it will be quickly overshadowed by the looming free agency of three key contributors. Poeltl is headed for unrestricted free agency, while VanVleet and Trent can join him if they decline player options for 2023/24, which is expected.

On paper, there’s a strong case to bring back all three players. Of the three, Poeltl looks like the best bet to return — Toronto gave up its top-six protected 2024 first-round pick for the veteran center and he capably filled a position that had been a revolving door since the club parted with Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in 2020. It wouldn’t make sense for the Raptors to let him walk, so I expect him to re-sign on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $17-20MM annually.

VanVleet and Trent are trickier cases. VanVleet is a strong defender who was a career 38.2% three-point shooter entering 2022/23, but he wasn’t quite as stout defensively this past season, and his three-point rate dipped to 34.2%.

In theory, the 29-year-old provides the sort of floor spacing and play-making that the Raptors don’t get from many other players on the roster, and he has proven his bona fides in the postseason, playing a rotation role on the championship team in 2019. But VanVleet isn’t particularly efficient from inside the arc and his price tag could approach or even surpass $30MM per year.

Trent, meanwhile, is probably in line for a multiyear contract worth in excess of $20MM annually, given his age (24), as well as his ability to knock down outside shots (.384 career 3PT%) and hold his own on defense. That’s a fair rate, and his skill set is one the Raptors could use, but it’s a substantial price to pay for a player who projects to be a sixth man.

It’s not out of the question for the Raptors to pay Poeltl, VanVleet, and Trent and still sneak below the luxury tax line in 2023/24. But it might require some cost-cutting elsewhere on the roster, with Chris Boucher ($11.75MM) and Porter ($6.3MM) among the potential trade candidates. Boucher and Porter theoretically project to be two of Toronto’s top bench players next season, so it would be a challenge to sign all three free agents, trade Boucher and/or Porter, and find a way to upgrade the second unit.

Of course, one possibility we haven’t discussed yet is the idea of trading a core player. Barnes, 21, probably isn’t going anywhere. A sign-and-trade involving VanVleet or Trent wouldn’t be impossible. But Siakam and Anunoby – who was one of the top trade candidates to stay put at February’s deadline – would be easier to move and are more likely to be the subject of trade rumors this summer.

Of those two, Anunoby is the better bet to be on the move. His cap hit ($18.6MM) is less than half of Siakam’s, which simplifies salary matching, and he’s the player who can slot more easily into any team’s lineup due to his three-and-D skill set. The 25-year-old still hasn’t fully come into his own as an offensive creator, but he has made 38.4% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons and has become one of the NBA’s best, most versatile defenders, with an ability to guard point guards, centers, and anything in between.

Siakam is a talented two-way player in his own right, with a more well-rounded offensive game and impressive versatility on defense. However, he’s more ball-dominant and is quite pricey ($37.9MM), so the list of teams that could conceivably trade for him and then seamlessly incorporate him would be shorter.

Much of the trade speculation surrounding Anunoby has been centered on how many first-round picks Toronto could get back for him, but the Raptors – who don’t control their 2024 first-rounder – have no incentive to load up on draft picks and rebuild.

If Anunoby or another key player is traded, the front office’s goal will likely be to get back multiple young players who are ready to step into rotation roles. For instance, if the Pelicans pursue Anunoby, I’d expect the Raptors to show more interest in the likes of Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy, Herbert Jones, and Jose Alvarado than in New Orleans’ collection of future first-round picks.

Toronto will certainly be open to retooling the roster, but blowing it up probably isn’t on the table this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Young’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Joe Wieskamp ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Wieskamp’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $8,927,896

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall ($4,469,280)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,469,280

Extension-Eligible Players

  • OG Anunoby (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)
  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)
  • Precious Achiuwa (rookie scale)
  • Malachi Flynn (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Poeltl is only eligible until June 30; Trent would only become eligible if his player option is exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Raptors would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Western Conference Finals?

May 13th, 2023 at 11:34am CST by Luke Adams

The 2023 Western Conference Finals will feature two teams that took remarkably different paths to get there.

The Nuggets claimed the No. 1 seed in the West on December 20 and never relinquished it, winning a conference-best 53 games despite essentially going on cruise control down the stretch, losing 10 of their last 17 contests. Since the playoffs began, no team has posted a better offensive rating (118.7) or net rating (+8.6) than the Nuggets, who have yet to lose at home in the postseason.

The Lakers, of course, got off to a disastrous start in 2022/23, losing 10 of the first 12 games on their regular season schedule. While things got better from there, especially once Los Angeles revamped its roster at the trade deadline, the team still occupied the No. 13 spot in the Western standings as late as February 26, which was also the day that LeBron James went down with a foot injury that cost him the next 13 games.

The Lakers persevered, finishing the regular season on a hot streak and claiming the No. 7 seed in the West before knocking off the No. 2 Grizzlies and the defending champion Warriors. Like Denver, L.A. hasn’t lost at home so far in the postseason, but the Lakers are winning games a little differently — they only rank ninth among playoff teams in offense, but their 106.5 postseason defensive rating is the NBA’s best.

The Nuggets will enter the Western Finals as slight betting favorites (-143, per BetOnline.ag), and it’s not hard to see why.

Denver is led by perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, who is coming off a series in which he averaged an outrageous 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. Jamal Murray, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, is back in peak form, putting up 25.9 PPG and 6.5 APG on .461/.395/.915 shooting so far in the playoffs. And perhaps most importantly, the Nuggets seem to have the right complementary pieces surrounding their stars, including versatile forward Aaron Gordon, three-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and jack-of-all-trades Bruce Brown.

Still, there are plenty of believers in a Lakers squad that supplemented James and Anthony Davis by swapping out Russell Westbrook in February for valuable role players like D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. With James and Davis healthy entering the series and holding the edge on the Nuggets’ stars in terms of championship experience, L.A. is only a +123 underdog, per BetOnline.ag.

We want to know what you think. Which team do you expect to win the series and represent the West in the NBA Finals? Should we count on a six- or seven-game series or will it be over in a hurry?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

May 11th, 2023 at 7:58am CST by Rory Maher

Many league observers expected the Pacers to be among the NBA’s tanking teams in 2022/23 after trading away veterans at the 2022 deadline (Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Caris LeVert) and last offseason (Malcolm Brogdon) in favor of younger players and draft picks.

Instead, Indiana was highly competitive for much of the season. Last fall, 62.8% of our readers picked the Pacers to finish under 23.5 wins – they had 24 by January 24 and wound up with 35.

For the first half of the season it looked like the Pacers were in a strong position to make the play-in tournament – they were 23-18 on January 8 after winning six of seven games. Unfortunately, rising star Tyrese Haliburton was injured against the Knicks on January 11, and the Pacers lost nine of 10 without their best player.

That stretch hurt their momentum, and while they were only a half-game out of the 10th spot as recently as March 11, the Pacers decided to rest Haliburton and Myles Turner down the stretch due to nagging injuries and to improve their lottery odds.

After winning a tiebreaker with Washington, the Pacers will enter next week’s lottery with the seventh-best odds of landing the top overall pick and a chance to draft Victor Wembanyama.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

Indiana only has five free agents (including both two-way players) entering the offseason, and president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard has already said that the team’s interest in bringing back Oshae Brissett, James Johnson and George Hill hinges on what happens during the draft and the early days of free agency.

If the Pacers renounce all of their cap holds, they’ll have about $27MM in cap room to work with to shore up their defense and rebounding, which head coach Rick Carlisle said will be a priority. In addition to their own lottery pick, the Pacers control two late first-rounders from the aforementioned trades (No. 26 via Cleveland and No. 29 via Boston).

They also have two second-rounders, though the more valuable one could move 18 spots depending on what happens in the draft lottery. If Houston picks ahead of San Antonio in the first round, the Pacers will control the No. 50 pick. If the Spurs get the higher lottery pick, Indiana would instead get No. 32.

The Pacers will certainly look to be active during the draft and free agency — Pritchard has expressed an openness to packaging the team’s plethora of draft picks to improve the roster. Haliburton said after the season that the Pacers will be aiming for the playoffs next season, and that seems reasonable – they were 28-28 in games he played this season, a solid record for a team that was prioritizing the development of its young players.

Speaking of Haliburton, the All-Star guard is eligible for a rookie scale extension, and I view him as basically a lock to receive a max deal. Both Pritchard and Carlisle have spoken glowingly about his leadership both on and off the court, calling him “the face of the franchise” and a “partner” who is likely have a say in personnel moves going forward.

Aaron Nesmith, who was acquired in the Brogdon trade, had an up-and-down first two seasons with Boston, but he had a consistent role and played much better in his first campaign with Indiana, averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG while shooting 36.6% on three-pointers and playing solid defense in 73 games, including 60 starts (24.9 MPG). Like Haliburton, he’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a deal gets done if it’s relatively team-friendly — perhaps in the $10-12MM per year range.

The other notable extension-eligible player is sharpshooter Buddy Hield, who had one of his best all-around seasons in ‘22/23, averaging 16.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.8 APG and 1.2 SPG on .458/.425/.822 shooting in 80 games (73 starts, 31.0 MPG). However, while Pritchard praised Hield’s impact both on and off the court, he was noncommittal about offering a new deal to the 30-year-old.

Of the players on guaranteed contracts, Daniel Theis’ spot on the roster is the most tenuous. He’ll be making $9.1MM in ‘23/24 and barely played at all this season – he could be included in a trade as part of salary ballast, but his value is basically nonexistent at that price point. Chris Duarte might be worth keeping an eye on too, as he struggled through injuries in his second season and was surpassed in the pecking order by rookies Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard.

Turner was involved in trade rumors for several years, including in ’22/23. But after renegotiating his contract and signing an extension, I think he’ll be staying put — he had the best season of his career and thrived alongside Haliburton.

With point guard, shooting guard and center seemingly secured for the foreseeable future, small forward and power forward will almost certainly be the Pacers’ biggest offseason targets. Nesmith is a solid role player, but he was very undersized at power forward and probably projects as more of a decent starter than a plus one.

Someone like OG Anunoby, who’s entering his age-26 season and just earned an All-Defensive nod, would be a good fit, but I’m not sure how willing the Raptors are to trade him (or if it’s worth it to go after him if their asking price is too high).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall ($6,516,000)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 26 overall ($2,499,480)
  • No. 29 overall ($2,394,960)
  • No. 50 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Pacers would instead receive the No. 32 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  • No. 55 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,410,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Buddy Hield (veteran)
  • T.J. McConnell (veteran)
  • Daniel Theis (veteran)
  • Aaron Nesmith (rookie scale)
  • Tyrese Haliburton (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: Stephenson’s cap hold remains on the Pacers’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

May 9th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Jazz were supposed to bottom out in 2022/23.

They’d just traded away nearly their entire starting lineup, including All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and forwards Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. Those roster moves – and the fact that several other veterans were still on the trade block – suggested that CEO Danny Ainge, general manager Justin Zanik, and the rest of the front office were all-in on the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

Then the season started and Utah looked more like a powerhouse than a bottom-feeder. The Jazz won 10 of their first 13 games out of the gate and held the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference over a month into the regular season.

Utah eventually slid down the standings, as expected, but the team easily exceeded preseason expectations by winning 37 games, even after trading away starting point guard Mike Conley and other key rotation players during the season.

When the Jazz dealt Gobert and Mitchell during the 2022 offseason, the focus was on the draft assets they received, since the packages they got for their two stars were heavy on unprotected future first-rounders.

But it was Lauri Markkanen (acquired in the Mitchell deal) and Walker Kessler (part of the Gobert package) who paid big early dividends for the franchise. Markkanen earned his first All-Star berth and was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player, while Kessler finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and was fourth in the league in blocks per game (2.3) despite averaging only 23.0 MPG.

With Markkanen and Kessler under contract for multiple seasons, the Jazz have two intriguing cornerstones to build around and an opportunity to accelerate their rebuild even if they don’t have any luck in the 2023 draft lottery.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan:

The Jazz are ninth in the lottery standings, so their odds of landing a top-three pick aren’t great (14.5%). That’s not the end of the world though. While Utah would obviously love to add one of 2023’s top prospects to its current core, the team is well positioned to continue adding talent even if that pick stays at No. 9.

For one, that lottery selection is just one of three first-rounders the Jazz own this June. They also control the Timberwolves’ pick at No. 16 and the Sixers’ at No. 28, putting them in position to either add a handful of rookies to the roster or to turn one or two of those picks into a trade asset.

The Jazz will also enter the offseason with the ability to generate significant cap space. Their guaranteed salary total of $47.6MM is a little misleading, since there could be as many as four player options to account for, along with some non-guaranteed salaries and cap holds for draft picks. But if we assume Talen Horton-Tucker, Rudy Gay, and Damian Jones all opt in, Kelly Olynyk and Kris Dunn are retained, and Utah keeps all three of its first-rounders, there could still be in excess of $42MM in cap room.

The big question will be at what pace the Jazz want to proceed as they build their roster. Ainge and Zanik are smart enough to recognize that just because the team won 37 games in 2022/23, that doesn’t mean that number will continue to rise as long as the front office makes an upgrade or two to the roster. Growth isn’t necessarily linear and a similar group could just as easily take a step back next season.

In theory, Utah is in a strong position to use its projected cap room to sign one impact player and to package its trade assets (including five future unprotected first-round picks from Minnesota and Cleveland) for a second impact player.

But after going into sell mode last offseason, I don’t expect the Jazz to do a 180 and essentially pull off the inverse of those Gobert and Mitchell trades this summer. The club seems more likely to exercise patience in building its new-look roster, despite last season’s success.

That means Utah’s cap room might be best used to accommodate salary dumps. With a more punitive new CBA taking effect in 2023/24, there will be teams around the NBA looking to move off unwanted money. The Jazz could capitalize on their cap flexibility by lessening the financial burden for one or two of those teams and acquire more draft picks in the process.

Assuming the front office takes the long view, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade one of their three 2023 first-rounders for a pick or two in a future year. That would allow the Jazz to continue building up their collection of future draft assets and to avoid bringing three first-round picks to camp this fall.

The team will also have to decide whether or not Jordan Clarkson is in its long-term plans. A Sixth Man of the Year winner during his time in Utah, Clarkson has proven to be an effective scorer for the Jazz and was a good value on his four-year, $52MM contract, but will likely turn down his $14.3MM player option in search of a more lucrative deal.

The Jazz have the financial flexibility necessary to accommodate Clarkson, but re-signing him could cut their cap room nearly in half, and Ainge has spent the last year moving off virtually every other veteran on the roster — perhaps Clarkson will be next.

The 2022/23 season showed that the Jazz probably won’t need to spend several years mired in a long rebuilding process, but they’re not on a fast-track to contention yet. The next steps are crucial and will help determine just how quickly Utah can move past its roster teardown and reclaim its place as an annual playoff team in the West.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Kelly Olynyk ($9,195,122)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Olynyk’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Kris Dunn ($2,586,665)
    • Note: Dunn’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Luka Samanic ($2,066,585)
    • Note: Samanic would receive a partial guarantee ($400K) if he’s not waived on or before July 18. That partial guarantee would increase to $600K if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Vernon Carey Jr. ($1,997,238)
    • Note: Carey’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before October 23.
  • Total: $15,845,610

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall ($5,487,120)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 16 overall ($3,831,960)
  • No. 28 overall ($2,412,240)
  • Total: $11,731,320

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jordan Clarkson (veteran)
  • Rudy Gay (veteran)
  • Talen Horton-Tucker (veteran)
  • Lauri Markkanen (veteran)
  • Kelly Olynyk (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Gay and Horton-Tucker would only become eligible if their player options are exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: Whiteside’s cap hold remains on the Jazz’s books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
  • Trade exception: $9,614,379
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $6,745,122
    • Note: Expires on September 22.
  • Trade exception: $5,009,633
  • Trade exception: $4,374,000
  • Trade exception: $2,740,000
    • Note: Expires on August 25.
  • Trade exception: $202,202
    • Note: Expires on June 30.
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Cap Holds

May 9th, 2023 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

The Mavericks have a little less than $104MM in guaranteed money committed to player salaries for 2023/24. However, even though next season’s salary cap is expected to come in at $134MM, Dallas won’t begin the 2023 offseason with $30MM+ in cap room to spend.

In fact, the Mavericks technically won’t open the new league year with any cap space at all. Each of Dallas’ own free agents will be assigned a free agent amount – or “cap hold” – until the player signs a new contract or the Mavericks renounce his rights.

The general purpose of a cap hold is to prevent teams from using room under the cap to sign free agents before using Bird rights to re-sign their own free agents. If a team wants to take advantage of its cap space, it can renounce the rights to its own free agents, eliminating those cap holds. However, doing so means the team will no longer hold any form of Bird rights for those players — if the team wants to re-sign those free agents, it would have to use its cap room or another kind of cap exception.

The following criteria are used for determining the amount of a free agent’s cap hold:

  • First-round pick coming off rookie contract: 300% of the player’s previous salary if prior salary was below league average; 250% of previous salary if prior salary was above league average.
  • Bird player: 190% of previous salary (if below league average) or 150% (if above average).
  • Early Bird player: 130% of previous salary.
  • Non-Bird player: 120% of previous salary.
  • Minimum-salary player: Two-year veteran’s minimum salary, unless the free agent only has one year of experience, in which case it’s the one-year veteran’s minimum.
  • Two-way player: One-year veteran’s minimum salary.

A cap hold for a restricted free agent can vary based on his contract status. A restricted free agent’s cap hold is either his free agent amount as determined by the criteria mentioned above or the amount of his qualifying offer, whichever is greater.

No cap hold can exceed the maximum salary for which a player can sign. For example, the cap hold for a Bird player with a salary above the league average is generally 150% of his previous salary, as noted above. But for someone like Mavericks star Kyrie Irving, whose cap charge was $39,204,557 this season, 150% of his previous salary would be nearly $59MM, well beyond his projected maximum salary.

Instead, Irving’s cap hold will be equivalent to the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA experience. If we assume a cap of $134MM, that figure works out to $46.9MM.

One unusual case involves players on rookie contracts whose third- or fourth-year options are declined. The amount of their declined option becomes their cap hold, and if the player’s team wants to re-sign him, his starting salary can’t exceed that amount.

For instance, the Jazz declined Udoka Azubuike‘s 2023/24 fourth-year option last fall. As a result, Utah won’t be able to offer Azubuike a starting salary this offseason worth more than $3,923,484, the amount of that option. That figure will also be his cap hold.

That rule is in place so a team can’t circumvent the rookie scale and decline its option in an effort to give the player a higher salary. It applies even if the player is traded after his option is declined, but only to the club the player is part of at season’s end. Any team besides the Jazz could offer Azubuike a starting salary greater than $3,923,484 this offseason.

If a team holds the rights to fewer than 12 players, cap holds worth the rookie minimum salary are assigned to fill out the roster. So, even if a front office chooses to renounce its rights to all of its free agents and doesn’t have any players under contract, the team wouldn’t be able to fully clear its cap. An incomplete roster charge in 2023/24 projects to be worth $1,102,929, meaning a team without any guaranteed salary or any other cap holds would have closer to $121MM in cap room than $134MM due to its 12 rookie minimum holds.

A player who has been selected in the draft but has not yet officially signed his rookie contract only has a cap hold if he was a first-round selection. A cap hold for a first-round pick is equivalent to 120% of his rookie scale amount, based on his draft position. An unsigned second-round pick doesn’t have a cap hold.

Cap holds aren’t removed from a team’s books until the player signs a new contract or has his rights renounced by the club. For example, the Warriors are still carrying cap holds on their books for retired players like David West and Matt Barnes, who never signed new contracts since playing for Golden State.

Keeping those cap holds allows teams some degree of cushion to help them remain above the cap and take advantage of the mid-level exception and trade exceptions, among other advantages afforded capped-out teams. If and when the Warriors want to maximize their cap room, they’ll renounce West and Barnes, but they’ve remained over the cap – and haven’t needed to remove those holds – since those players became free agents in 2017.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 8th, 2023 at 2:23pm CST by Rory Maher

The Hornets have missed out on the playoffs for seven straight seasons. They don’t exactly have a great track record of success – they’ve only recorded 50-plus wins three times in 33 seasons and made the postseason a total of 10 times. None of those 50-win seasons and just three of their playoff berths have come in the last 19 years since they rejoined the NBA as an expansion team.

After going 23-42 in 2019/20, it seemed like Charlotte was on an upward trajectory — the team increased its win total by 10 in both ’20/21 (33-39) and ’21/22 (43-39). However, the Hornets were blown out as the No. 10 seed in the play-in tournament in ’21 and ’22, which led to former head coach James Borrego getting fired.

Unfortunately, the Hornets took a major step back this season from a win/loss perspective, going 27-55. Injuries to players up and down the roster certainly played a part in that decline, with only P.J. Washington playing 70 or more games (73). Off-court problems were another factor, as Miles Bridges missed the entire season after being arrested for felony domestic violence charges, later pleading no contest.

Even when relatively healthy though, the Hornets didn’t perform up to expectations. They had the worst offensive rating in the league by a pretty significant margin, struggling to score from all over the court.

Having said that, I don’t think the future is as gloomy as it might appear on the surface. In addition to having a 12.5% chance at the top overall draft pick, the Hornets have four other selections in the 27-42 range, giving them some interesting short-term options to improve.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

If the Hornets choose to not bring back any of their players on non-guaranteed deals and renounce all of their free agents and other cap holds (besides their first-round picks), they could operate as a below-the-cap team and have more than $30MM in room to go after free agents. However, the odds of that happening are extremely remote.

President of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak already stated Charlotte doesn’t plan to be a major player in free agency and will instead look to retain its own free agents and add talent through the draft. That makes sense, both from a financial and team-building perspective.

Not only are the Hornets’ own free agents likely better than the players they could add with that theoretical cap room, but operating as an over-the-cap team also gives them access to the full mid-level exception ($12.2MM) and the bi-annual exception ($4.5MM). If they went the other route, they’d only have the $7.6MM room exception to fill out the roster (on top of their cap space).

Re-signing Bridges probably won’t be a popular choice, but it has seemed inevitable for a long time. He was set to be one of the top players on the market last summer but was arrested mere days before an enormous payday.

The Hornets never withdrew his qualifying offer, so he’ll be a restricted free agent again in 2023 as long as the team reissues that QO this summer. It’s hard to say how much he’ll get paid on his next contract given everything that’s happened — I still think he’s likely to get something in the $25MM+ per year range, but it probably won’t approach a max like it may have last offseason.

Washington is the other key restricted free agent for Charlotte. His next contract might be less lucrative than Bridges’, but I think the Hornets will match any offer sheet up to around $20MM per year. They’d certainly prefer to pay him less than that though, perhaps in the range of $14-16MM annually – I would bet on Washington’s agents looking for more money from a rival team if that’s as high as Charlotte goes. It will be interesting to see how his situation plays out.

The team’s unrestricted free agents include Kelly Oubre, Svi Mykhailiuk and Dennis Smith Jr. Both Oubre (multiple times) and Smith have spoken about wanting to remain with the Hornets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they return, but that might depend on how the draft goes.

Oubre made $12.6MM in ‘22/23 and I think he’ll probably get something in the ballpark of that figure on annual basis this summer, perhaps on a two- or three-year deal. I don’t expect Smith to have a robust market due to his scoring struggles, but he has become a much better decision-maker and an outstanding point-of-attack defender. They Hornets will have his Non-Bird rights if they want to give him a modest raise on his minimum-salary deal — otherwise they’ll have to use one of the aforementioned exceptions to give him a bit more money.

Giving LaMelo Ball a rookie scale extension is probably a mere formality. The former All-Star dealt with multiple ankle injuries in ‘22/23, but I still think he’s likely going to get a max contract.

My expectation is the Hornets will be involved in at least a couple of trades this offseason. If they keep all of their players on guaranteed contracts, re-sign Bridges, Washington, Oubre and Smith, and keep JT Thor’s non-guaranteed deal, they’d have 16 players under standard contracts if you include their two first-round picks. That’s one more than permitted.

They’ll also have three second-rounders ranging from No. 34-42. They could package those to try to move up in the first round, but Kupchak has had some nice second-round finds since he’s been in charge, so I’m not sure that’s likely. Even with the addition of a third two-way slot, the Hornets will still have a roster crunch, so look for some trade activity.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall ($8,678,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 27 overall ($2,427,360)
  • No. 34 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 39 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,105,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Gordon Hayward (veteran)
  • JT Thor (veteran)
  • LaMelo Ball (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Thomas, Kulboka, and Lewis remain on the Hornets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $1,930,681
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