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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2023/24

April 19th, 2023 at 10:09am CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the last year of his deal and finish out his contract or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision.

The state of the NBA’s salary cap also often becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions. If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams around the league project to have cap room, a player may be more inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions as they’re reported or announced.

While some players may face earlier deadlines, all option decisions must be finalized by June 29.

Boston Celtics

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Miami Heat

Milwaukee Bucks

New York Knicks

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

Utah Jazz

Washington Wizards

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2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 17th, 2023 at 4:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the fifth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.

The lottery results in 2021 and 2022 featured fewer surprises, though the seventh team in the lottery standings did move up to No. 4 in both years, allowing the Raptors to nab Scottie Barnes in 2021 and the Kings to select Keegan Murray in 2022.

Perhaps, after a couple relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2023. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 16.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2023 are listed in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
HOU 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
SAS 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
CHA 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
POR 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
ORL 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
IND 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 – – 19.7 35.6 12.9 1.4 >0 – – –
WSH 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 – – – 32.9 31.1 6.6 0.4 >0 – –
UTH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
DAL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 – – – – – – 77.6 13.5 0.4 >0
OKC 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 – – – – – – – 85.2 6.7 0.1
TOR 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
NOP 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

Notes:

  • The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it lands outside the top 10.
  • The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside the top four.

The full pre-lottery 2023 draft order can be found right here.

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2023 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

April 17th, 2023 at 4:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2023. While we’ll have to wait until the May 16 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 58 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2023 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air — for example, Chicago’s first-round pick could still technically end up with either the Bulls or Magic, while the Celtics‘, Pacers‘, and Thunder‘s exact second-round picks have yet to be locked in.

[RELATED: 2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds]

The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. This rule applies even when one club made the playoffs and one didn’t. For instance, the 42-40 Timberwolves will pick ahead of the 42-40 Pelicans in the second round (though neither team still controls its pick).

We’ll provided an updated list after the May 16 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2023 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons (14.0%)
  2. Houston Rockets (14.0%)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (14.0%)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (12.5%)
  5. Portland Trail Blazers (10.5%)
  6. Orlando Magic (9.0%)
  7. Indiana Pacers (6.8%)
  8. Washington Wizards (6.7%)
  9. Utah Jazz (4.5%)
  10. Dallas Mavericks (3.0%)
    • Note: The Knicks will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10.
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls) (1.8%)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four.
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (1.7%)
  13. Toronto Raptors (1.0%)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans (0.5%)
  15. Atlanta Hawks
  16. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Miami Heat
  19. Golden State Warriors
  20. Houston Rockets (from Clippers)
  21. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  22. Brooklyn Nets
  23. Portland Trail Blazers (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Memphis Grizzlies
  26. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  27. Charlotte Hornets (from Nuggets)
  28. Utah Jazz (from Sixers)
  29. Indiana Pacers (from Celtics)
  30. Los Angeles Clippers (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. San Antonio Spurs
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 33 if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  3. Boston Celtics (from Rockets)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 32 and would be sent to the Pacers if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Trail Blazers)
    • Note: This pick would be sent to the Celtics if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Wizards)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 38 if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  8. Sacramento Kings (from Pacers)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 37 if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  9. Charlotte Hornets (from Jazz)
  10. Denver Nuggets (from Mavericks)
  11. Charlotte Hornets (from Thunder)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 42 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  12. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  13. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  14. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  15. Memphis Grizzlies (from Timberwolves)
  16. Atlanta Hawks (from Pelicans)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Los Angeles Clippers
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Warriors)
  20. Indiana Pacers (from Heat)
    • Note: This pick would be sent to the Thunder if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  21. Brooklyn Nets
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  26. Memphis Grizzlies
  27. Chicago Bulls (from Nuggets)
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Washington Wizards (from Celtics)
  30. Milwaukee Bucks
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2023 NBA Head Coaching Search Tracker

April 16th, 2023 at 12:21pm CST by Luke Adams

With another regular season in the books, multiple teams around the NBA are making head coaching changes in advance of the 2023/24 campaign.

In the space below, we’ll provide regular updates on the head coaching searches for each club that has yet to give anyone the permanent title. Some of these searches could extend well into the offseason, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.

You’ll be able to access this page anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu.

Updated 6-10-23 (7:49pm CT)

Active Searches

None

Completed Searches

Detroit Pistons

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Former Overtime Elite coach Kevin Ollie (story)
    • Pelicans assistant Jarron Collins (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (story)
    • Nets assistant Brian Keefe (story)
    • Pistons assistant Rex Kalamian (story)
    • Pistons assistant Jerome Allen (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:

The Pistons went just 121-263 (.315) in five years with Casey at the helm, but his transition to a front office role was framed as his decision rather than the team’s. Casey, 66 in April, may prefer a less hands-on position as he nears retirement age.

Following Casey’s move to an executive role, the Pistons reportedly narrowed their coaching search to Ollie, Collins, and Lee, then didn’t make a decision for weeks. During that time, Williams was let go by the Suns and it became clear that he immediately moved to the top of Detroit’s wish list, supplanting the other three finalists.

Williams rebuffed the Pistons’ initial advances, indicating that he planned to take a year off, but he ultimately relented and agreed to a record-setting six-year, $78.5MM contract to become the Pistons’ new head coach.

After Casey guided the Pistons through the most challenging years of their rebuild, Williams will be tasked with turning the roster from a collection of promising young pieces into a team capable of making it back to the postseason.

Houston Rockets

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Also interviewed/considered:

    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (story)
    • Sixers assistant Sam Cassell (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Former Hornets coach James Borrego (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Raptors coach Nick Nurse (story)
    • Trail Blazers assistant Scott Brooks (story)

Silas signed up to coach a team led by veteran stars James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but both players were gone 10 games into his first season in Houston. The first-time head coach ended up presiding over a full-scale rebuild — no NBA team posted a worse record during Silas’ three years with the franchise than the Rockets’ 59-177 mark.

After some reports indicated that Houston would be seeking a more experienced candidate this time around, the Rockets seriously considered veteran head coaches like Vogel and Borrego before landing on Udoka, who led the Celtics to the NBA Finals in his first and only season as an NBA head coach in 2021/22.

Udoka’s tenure with Boston ended abruptly after he engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate within the organization. The Rockets presumably did their due diligence on that incident and determined they were comfortable with hiring Udoka, whose on-court résumé is strong. He reportedly signed a four-year, $28.5MM contract and will be tasked with turning a raw Rockets team made up of promising young pieces into a more coherent whole capable of making the playoffs.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Former Hornets coach James Borrego (story)
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Trail Blazers assistant Scott Brooks (story)
    • Former Warriors coach Mark Jackson (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • University of Houston coach Kelvin Sampson (story)
    • Wizards assistant Joseph Blair (story)
    • Paris Basketball coach Will Weaver (story)
    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (story)
    • Clippers coach Tyronn Lue (story)

The NBA is a “what have you done for me lately?” sort of league, so the fact that Budenholzer led the Bucks to a title in 2021 and to the NBA’s best regular season record in 2022/23 was essentially negated by the team’s embarrassing first-round playoff exit this spring. As a result, Milwaukee opted to move on from the veteran head coach, who still had two years left on his contract.

Following an extensive search, the Bucks narrowed their options to three finalists: Griffin, Atkinson, and Nurse. Two of those candidates had prior head coaching experience, but Milwaukee opted to hire the one that didn’t, landing on Griffin, a veteran assistant who has worked for five teams over the last 15 years. He’s reportedly receiving a multiyear deal worth about $4MM annually.

This Bucks roster, headed by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, still looks capable of contending for championships. The organization – including Antetokounmpo, who gave Griffin his endorsement – is rolling the dice on a first-time NBA head coach helping the team once again reach those heights.

Philadelphia 76ers

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Former Lakers coach Frank Vogel (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer (story)
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (story)
    • Former Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni (story)
    • Sixers assistant Sam Cassell (story)

The Sixers posted an impressive 154-82 (.653) regular season record during Rivers’ three years in Philadelphia, but the team’s inability to make a deep playoff run reflected poorly on the veteran coach, who had similar issues in Los Angeles with the Clippers. The 76ers were eliminated in the second round in three consecutive years, losing home games to end their season in 2021 and 2022 and then getting blown out in a Game 7 in 2023.

With Joel Embiid locked up for years to come, the Sixers have a franchise player to build around, but they could make some significant changes around Embiid this offseason, with James Harden a candidate to depart in free agency and Tobias Harris likely to end up back on the trade block.

Nurse, who led the division-rival Raptors to a championship in his first year as head coach in 2018/19, will be tasked with getting Embiid to the conference finals (at least) for the first time in his career. Nurse was reportedly a finalist for the head coaching jobs in Milwaukee and Phoenix before agreeing to join the Sixers.

Phoenix Suns

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:
    • Former Sixers coach Doc Rivers (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez (story)
    • Former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (hired by Sixers)
  • Also interviewed/considered:

    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajakovic (story)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Clippers coach Tyronn Lue (story)

Williams helped reshape the culture in Phoenix over the last several seasons, leading the Suns to the NBA Finals in 2021 and earning Coach of the Year honors in 2022. However, after suffering embarrassing blowout home losses to end their playoff runs in both 2022 and 2023, the Suns decided to make a change.

Phoenix initially narrowed its search to five finalists before choosing Vogel, who has won a title and will be coaching his fourth NBA team. Given his experience and his résumé, Vogel should command the respect of veteran stars like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker as he tries to get the team over the hump in 2023/24 and beyond.

Vogel’s deal with the Suns will reportedly be worth $31MM over five years.

Toronto Raptors

  • New coach:
    • Darko Rajakovic (story)
  • Previous coach:
  • Other finalists:

    • Virtus Bologna coach Sergio Scariolo (story)
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Bucks assistant Charles Lee (story)
  • Also interviewed/considered:
    • Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
    • Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Nuggets assistant David Adelman (story)
    • ESPN analyst JJ Redick (story)
    • Former Nets coach Steve Nash (story)
    • Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin (hired by Bucks)
  • Other rumored candidates/targets:
    • Barcelona coach Sarunas Jasikevicius (story)
    • Suns assistant Patrick Mutombo (story)
    • Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse (story)
    • Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon (story)
    • Former Suns coach Monty Williams (hired by Pistons)
    • Former Celtics coach Ime Udoka (hired by Rockets)

Head coach Nick Nurse told reporters on March 31 that he would take some time after the season to evaluate his future. The Raptors took the same approach and eventually announced nine days after their season ended that they were relieving Nurse of his duties.

Toronto exercised extreme patience with its head coaching search and was the last team to make a decision this spring — word of Nurse’s dismissal broke on April 21, while Rajakovic was reported as the team’s choice of replacement on June 10, over a month-and-a-half later.

Nurse won a championship and a Coach of the Year award in separate seasons during his five-year stint as the Raptors’ head coach, so Rajakovic has big shoes to fill as a first-time NBA head coach. His résumé includes head coaching stints in Europe and in the G League, along with a decade as an NBA assistant, so he certainly seems qualified for his new role.

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Poll: Who Should Win 2022/23 NBA Awards?

April 16th, 2023 at 10:00am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA announced the 2022/23 finalists for its seven major awards on Friday, revealing the top three vote-getters for Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and the newly added Clutch Player of the Year.

Some of these awards have felt like foregone conclusions for a while, but some results could be genuine surprises when they’re revealed beginning this week.

Today though, we’re not focusing on which players will win the awards, but the ones you believe should win them. Select your winners for this year’s major NBA awards in the seven polls below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Our polls only include the three finalists in each category, but if you think someone else deserves to win one of these awards, be sure to use the comment section to “write in” that pick and explain your reasoning.

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Poll: Western Conference’s First Round Playoff Series

April 15th, 2023 at 3:57pm CST by Luke Adams

After calling for your predictions for the four first round series in the Eastern Conference earlier in the day, we’re pivoting to the West this afternoon.

Here are the four first round series in the Western Conference:

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Unlike in the East, where there are a handful of overwhelming favorites at the top of the conference, the Western Conference field appears more wide open as the playoffs begin. The Nuggets are heavily favored in this series, but their betting line (-550, per BetOnline.ag) isn’t anywhere close to the -1200 and -1300 lines we were seeing in the East.

As good as the Nuggets were this season, they weren’t playing their best basketball down the stretch, having lost five of their last seven games and 10 of their last 17 entering the postseason. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, had a disappointing year, but have a lot of high-end talent on their roster, including three-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, and ascendant All-Star Anthony Edwards.

A Timberwolves team playing to its full potential could give Denver trouble, but we haven’t seen that often this season. It would be a major upset if Tim Connelly‘s new team can get past his old one.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

After incorporating their trade-deadline acquisitions on February 11, the Lakers went 18-8 to close the regular season, which would translate to a 57-win pace over 82 games.

Throw in the fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are relatively healthy and two key members of the Grizzlies‘ frontcourt (Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke) aren’t, and it’s easy to understand why Memphis is only a slight favorite (-142) over Los Angeles (+122) in this series.

Still, the Grizzlies had the best net rating (+4.0) in the West this season and history is working in their favor — as John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the NBA’s No. 7 and No. 8 playoff seeds have lost 95 of 100 first round series in the last 25 years. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and company won’t be intimidated by the Lakers’ star power.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

The Kings‘ reward for snapping a 16-season playoff drought is a first-round matchup against the defending champions, who have won titles in four of the last eight years.

The Warriors‘ impressive track record in the postseason has made them betting favorites (-265) in this series over Sacramento (+225). Golden State has had an up-and-down year, but has a huge experience edge in this matchup and seemed to be hitting its stride at the right time in the season’s final weeks. With Andrew Wiggins set to be available for Game 1, the roster is at full strength and will present a tough challenge for the higher-seeded Kings.

Still, the Kings have been exceeding expectations all season long, and their home crowd should be whipped into a frenzy for the first NBA playoff basketball in Sacramento since 2006. This has a chance to be a very fun series.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

The key for both of these star-studded rosters is staying healthy. Suns forward Kevin Durant and guard Chris Paul have battled multiple injuries over the years, including this season, as have Clippers forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Suns have the health advantage entering this series, with George considered unlikely to play vs. Phoenix as he recovers from a sprained knee.

Even if PG13 can return to action before the series ends, the Clippers will be in tough against a Phoenix team that has looked incredibly dangerous with Durant on the court. The former MVP has only played in eight games for the Suns since being acquired at the trade deadline, but they’ve won all eight, outscoring opponents by a total of 88 points in those contests.

The Suns are considered strong betting favorites, with a -465 line at BetOnline.ag.

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Poll: Eastern Conference’s First Round Playoff Series

April 15th, 2023 at 10:00am CST by Luke Adams

With the play-in tournament complete and the playoff field set, the NBA’s postseason will begin in earnest on Saturday. Since three of Saturday’s four games are Eastern Conference matchups, we’re zeroing in on those first round series this morning before shifting our focus to the West later today.

Here are the four first round series in the East:

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

This series holds a little more intrigue than the typical No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup. The Heat won the most games in the Eastern Conference in 2021/22 and nearly made it to the NBA Finals last spring. This year’s team isn’t much different from that one, even if its in-season results were a lot less impressive. A group led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo certainly won’t roll over in the playoffs.

Still, the Bucks were one of the NBA’s most dominant teams in the regular season, winning a league-high 58 games. And despite some injury question marks, they’re the deeper, more talented team in this matchup. This series may not be a repeat of Milwaukee’s four-game sweep of Miami in round one of the 2021 playoffs en route to a Bucks championship, but there’s a reason why Giannis Antetokounmpo are massive betting favorites (-1200, per BetOnline.ag).

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

The Celtics will enter their first round series as even bigger betting favorites (-1300) than the Bucks. Boston’s +6.7 net rating on the season was the NBA’s best mark by a comfortable margin, whereas Atlanta has spent much of the season looking like a league-average team, finishing the year at 41-41 (with a +0.1 net rating) before winning a play-in game over Miami.

The Celtics’ No. 2 overall defense should be capable of slowing down the Hawks‘ star backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray; it remains to be seen whether Atlanta will have any answer at the other end of the court for Boston’s star wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. A Hawks upset isn’t impossible, but it looks like a real long shot, barring injuries.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

While the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are often significant favorites in NBA playoff series, it’s unusual for a No. 3 team to be as heavily favored as the Sixers are over the Nets (-1200). The odds make sense though — Philadelphia had the NBA’s third-best record, trailing only two Eastern powerhouses. And Brooklyn likely wouldn’t have finished as high as sixth in the East if not for the first-half contributions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who are no longer on the roster.

The new-look Nets, led by Mikal Bridges, were competitive down the stretch, but they went just 13-15 after the trade deadline. The 76ers, meanwhile, followed up a 12-12 start to the season by winning 42 of their last 58 games, and they’ll be at full strength in the playoffs — stars Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey are all healthy after missing between 16 and 24 games apiece during the regular season.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Now we’re talking. The rest of the Eastern Conference series are viewed as pretty one-sided, but the Cavaliers and Knicks is something a little closer to a toss-up. Cleveland is a -190 betting favorite, per BetOnline.ag, while New York is at +165 to win the series.

On paper, there are plenty of reasons to back the Cavaliers. Their +5.6 net rating ranked No. 2 in the NBA, buoyed by a league-best 109.9 defensive rating. And Donovan Mitchell is the sort of battle-tested scorer a team wants on its roster in the postseason.

On the other hand, besides Mitchell, Cleveland’s top players lack postseason experience. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley will be appearing in their first playoff game on Saturday, and Jarrett Allen didn’t advance beyond the first round in two brief postseason appearances in Brooklyn. These Knicks are well coached and have the East’s best offense (120.4 rating) since the calendar flipped to 2023.

The status of Julius Randle‘s left ankle could be significant — it sounds like he’s aiming to return for Game 1 on Saturday, but he hasn’t played since spraining the ankle on March 29 and likely isn’t back to 100% yet.

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Post-Play-In Update On Draft Order, Lottery Standings

April 15th, 2023 at 7:35am CST by Luke Adams

As we explained on Sunday night following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2022/23 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2023 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…

Lottery teams

Despite some upsets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.

The Hawks and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Milwaukee, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Timberwolves locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Memphis and Denver, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
HOU* 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
SAS* 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
CHA 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
POR 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
ORL 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
WSH* 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 – – 19.7 35.6 12.9 1.4 >0 – – –
IND* 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 – – – 32.9 31.1 6.6 0.4 >0 – –
UTH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
DAL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
OKC* 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 – – – – – – 77.6 13.5 0.4 >0
CHI* 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 – – – – – – – 85.2 6.7 0.1
TOR 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
NOP 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it’s outside the top 10; the Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it’s outside the top four.

A series of tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
  2. Washington Wizards / Indiana Pacers (35-47)
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls (40-42)

For instance, if the Spurs win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 6 in the lottery, while Houston could slide as far as No. 7.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 7 and No. 11.

Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:

  1. Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
  2. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
    • Note: Pick traded to Jazz.
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
  4. Miami Heat / Los Angeles Clippers / Golden State Warriors (44-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker will be required to determine the order of the Nos. 18-20 picks.
    • Note: Clippers’ pick traded to Rockets.

In addition to the tiebreaker required for the Heat, Clippers, and Warriors at No. 18, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:

  1. Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
    • Note: Suns’ pick traded to Nets.
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
    • Note: Cavaliers’ pick traded to Pacers.

No random tiebreakers will be required for the following clubs. They finished the regular season with identical records, but one made the playoffs and one didn’t, so the lottery team will pick higher in round one and the playoff team will get the higher pick in round two:

  • New Orleans Pelicans / Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
  • Toronto Raptors / Atlanta Hawks (41-41)

The six random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted by the NBA on Monday, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2023 draft.

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Key 2023 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

April 14th, 2023 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2022/23 NBA regular season in the books, 12 teams have shifted their focus to the offseason and others will soon follow suit.

That means it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’22/23 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

Outlined below is a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months, right up until training camps open for the 2023/24 season.

Note: We may adjust, add, or remove items from this list if there are date/deadline changes related to the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

April 23

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59 pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

May 13-14

  • NBA G League Elite Camp for draft prospects.

May 15-21

  • NBA draft combine.

May 16

May 31

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59 pm CT).

June 1

  • NBA Finals begin.

June 12

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00 pm CT).

June 18

  • Latest possible end date for NBA Finals.

June 22

  • NBA draft day.

June 29

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options
    • Note: Certain contracts will require earlier decisions.
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

June 30

July 1

  • Official start of the 2023/24 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2024/25 on rookie scale contracts.

July 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01 am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01 am CT).
  • The 24-hour period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins (11:01 am CT).

July 7-17

  • Las Vegas Summer League.

July 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

August 31

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2023/24 salaries.

September 5

  • Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks; those players become free agents on September 6 if not tendered.

Late September (specific dates TBA)

  • Training camps open.

Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Friday’s NBA Play-In Games

April 14th, 2023 at 7:42am CST by Luke Adams

This is only the third year that the NBA’s play-in tournament has existed in its current form, so it’s not as if there’s a lengthy play-in history to help contextualize this year’s results. Still, the results through the first four games have been unprecedented.

Coming into this year, no No. 7 seed had ever lost a play-in game — Miami became the first team to do so on Tuesday.

Coming into this year, no No. 10 seed had ever won a play-in game — Chicago and Oklahoma City both achieved this feat on Wednesday.

With three upsets in four games, the play-in results haven’t been easy to forecast. Only 11.55% of our poll respondents picked Atlanta and the Lakers to win on Tuesday, and the success rate wasn’t a whole lot better on Wednesday, with 17.88% of voters taking Chicago and Oklahoma City.

Will Friday’s games continue to produce unexpected results, or will the favorites bear down and advance to the first round of the playoffs?

In the East, where the winner will advance to face Milwaukee in round one, the Heat are six-point favorites at home against the Bulls, according to BetOnline.ag.

But Miami is coming off a disappointing home loss and has played inconsistent basketball for much of the season, while Chicago has played some of its best ball since adding Patrick Beverley on the buyout market in February. It’s also worth noting that the Heat went 0-3 vs. the Bulls during the season and were outscored by 32 points in those games.

Out West, the upstart Thunder will visit Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs against the Timberwolves, with the winner on track to face top-seeded Denver.

The Wolves entered the season last fall with aspirations of making a deep playoff run, while Oklahoma City seemed more focus on player development than making the postseason. But the acclimation of Rudy Gobert in Minnesota hasn’t gone as smoothly as the front office hoped, while rising Thunder stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey are providing a preview of a bright future in OKC.

Entering Friday’s game, the vibes certainly seem better on the Thunder’s side, where no one has punched a wall or a teammate lately (as far as we know, anyway). And perhaps the fact that no one expected them to be here will help the Thunder play freer and more confidently than the Timberwolves, whose season would be considered an even bigger disappointment if they can’t secure a playoff berth.

We want to know what you think. Are we in for more upsets on Friday, or will the higher-seed Heat and Timberwolves claim the NBA’s last two available playoff spots?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

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