Hoops Rumors Originals

Trade Breakdown: Dario Saric To The Thunder

March 9th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the sixth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Suns and Thunder…

On February 9, the Thunder traded forward/center Darius Bazley to the Suns in exchange for forward/center Dario Saric, Phoenix’s 2029 second-round pick and $1MM in cash.

The Thunder’s perspective:

On the surface, this seems like a pretty minor trade that got lost in the shuffle a bit due to all the blockbusters leading up to the deadline. That said, I thought it was interesting for a number of different reasons.

As our Luke Adams explains in our glossary entry on traded player exceptions, even though this seems like a straightforward one-for-one swap, this was actually a non-simultaneous deal for both the Thunder and the Suns, making it mutually beneficial.

A non-simultaneous deal means a team can trade away a single player without immediately taking salary back in return, allowing it to create an outstanding trade exception.

This deal showed the value of having a large ($10,183,800) outstanding traded player exception, which permitted the Thunder to take on Saric’s $9,240,000 contract for “nothing.” That also allowed them to generate a new TPE, worth $4,264,629, which is what Bazley is making this season.

The Suns created their own TPE because they only traded one player and took back less salary than they sent out. It’s worth $4,975,371, which is the difference between Saric’s salary and Bazley’s. Both teams will have until next February to use their new TPEs.

There are plenty of examples of large TPEs not being used at all. Often that has to do with the team’s proximity to the luxury tax and its willingness (or lack thereof) to pay a huge chunk of cash for what could amount to a rental player (many players involved in deadline deals are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts — both Saric and Bazley could hit free agency this summer, for example).

The Thunder were in the sweet spot of being over the cap but far enough below the luxury tax line that they could use their large TPE to create an additional asset of sorts to possibly create future value. It also netted them a second-round pick and a little cash, since the Suns were motivated to move off Saric’s contract.

Cap aspects aside, when it was first announced, my first thought was to wonder if Saric might reach a buyout agreement or get waived, even though the Thunder were (and still are) in the play-in race. A handful of days after the deadline, it definitely sounded like he wasn’t going to pursue a buyout, praising the organization and saying he was “open-minded” about his potential role.

However, a report late last month indicated that he nearly was waived as Oklahoma City sought flexibility with its last roster spot, instead choosing to release Eugene Omoruyi.

My second thought was, wait, did the Thunder just make an on-court upgrade and get draft capital back? That very rarely happens.

That’s not to say the Thunder made a win-now move, far from it. The primary objective was landing the second-round pick and creating a new TPE. Saric is on an expiring contract and I’m sure the Thunder’s front office wouldn’t mind if they missed the postseason, though they haven’t shown any signs of blatantly tanking to this point.

He may not be a household name, but Saric is an accomplished player, providing solid value with all three of his previous clubs (he started with Philadelphia and was traded to Minnesota in the Jimmy Butler deal back in ‘18/19). He holds career averages of 11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.9 APG on .443/.360/.838 shooting in 402 games (217 starts, 24.0 MPG).

Saric missed all of last season while recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals. He had a second surgery last May to repair a torn meniscus, making it an open question what his form would look like upon his return from two major knee surgeries.

He (understandably) had a very slow start to 2022/23, only appearing in 22 of Phoenix’s first 41 games with averages of 3.8 PPG and 2.8 RPG on .358/.351/.857 shooting in 11.6 MPG. That’s why I said his free agent stock was trending down when I wrote about him in January.

However, he was a rotation fixture in the 15 games (seven starts, 18.5 MPG) leading up to the deadline, averaging 8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 2.3 APG on .485/.438/.800 shooting. Saric’s solid play has continued post-trade, as he’s averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.7 RPG on a scorching hot .627/.458/.889 shooting line through nine games with the Thunder (14.9 MPG).

The 28-year-old has an excellent feel for the game, using his high basketball IQ to overcome his relative lack of athleticism. He is a below-the-rim finisher, but has good touch and lots of tricks around the basket – he’s shooting 67.1% at the rim this season, which ranks in the 71st percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The Thunder run a five-out offense where every player on the court is capable of dribbling, passing, screening and shooting. All of those are strengths of Saric’s.

He isn’t a great defensive player at either frontcourt position, and he’s undersized against some centers (he’s listed at 6’10” and 225 pounds). That said, he’s generally in the right spots, he just lacks the foot speed to stick on the perimeter and the length to protect the paint.

Oklahoma City has had a ton of draft picks over the past few years, and still has loads more in the future. Bazley was one that didn’t work out.

The No. 23 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Bazley entered the NBA as an excellent athlete with raw skills. He turned into a solid defensive player, but struggled mightily offensively.

I gained a newfound respect for Bazley as a person after I saw a video of him talking about his diminished playing time this season (he only appeared in 36 of 54 games for an average of 15.4 MPG). His team-first attitude and self-awareness were admirable.

While Bazley is certainly young and talented enough that he could develop elsewhere, he was viewed as unlikely to be in the Thunder’s long-term plans even if they had kept him through the deadline. The harsh reality is trades are part of the business.

The Suns’ perspective:

Phoenix’s primary, secondary and tertiary reasons for making this deal were financial. As Luke Adams details in our glossary entry, the NBA’s luxury tax is set up so that the penalties become increasingly punitive the further teams go beyond the tax line.

Trading Saric for Bazley saved the Suns approximately $20MM toward their estimated luxury tax payment. According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the Suns are currently $22,249,841 over the tax with an estimated luxury tax bill of $53,436,904. And that’s after this trade was made.

Saric started to pick up steam prior to the deadline, was a key contributor to the team’s culture, and played a role in its run to the Finals a couple years ago. Would he have provided $20MM worth of value for the remainder of this season? In the most optimistic scenarios, maybe? But probably not.

Trading for Kevin Durant means there won’t be many minutes at power forward in the playoffs. Ditto at center behind Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have several options to explore backing up those frontcourt spots, including Torrey Craig, T.J. Warren, Ish Wainright, Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo and Bazley.

Maybe the Suns like Bazley as a defender and believe he has untapped upside on offense. He’s still just 22 years old. But he had also only appeared in one of a possible seven games (for seven minutes) entering Wednesday’s matchup with his former team.

In all likelihood, Bazley’s role will be minor going forward. As a championship hopeful, the Suns can’t really afford to play him when it counts, because opposing teams dare him to shoot and he’s only converting 50% at the rim, which is in the sixth percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.

Given Phoenix’s cap situation going forward, plus its window of contention and where Bazley is at in his development, the odds of him receiving a qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent seem slim. If that scenario plays out, he would instead become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

The $4,975,371 TPE the Suns created as part of the deal could be used to acquire a player who makes more than the minimum at some point in the future. Losing one second-round pick several years down the line isn’t a big deal, as a few are typically up for sale in every draft.

How far the Suns go in the postseason will ultimately be determined by their star players’ health. Obviously, Durant suffering an ankle sprain just three games after returning from a knee injury isn’t ideal, but they’ve still been on a roll lately, winning 16 of their past 21 games.

The Suns are betting they have enough depth behind Durant and Ayton that losing Saric won’t come back to bite them – a reasonable position, particularly considering how much money they saved by moving him.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

2022/23: $14.32MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: $1.93MM team option
Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

2022/23: $11.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

2022/23: $6.8MM
2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

The Second-Round Subplot In NBA’s Three-Team Race To The Bottom

March 8th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a recent hot streak by the Hornets, three clubs have separated themselves from the pack in the NBA’s race to the bottom. Barring a major surprise, the Pistons (15-51), Rockets (15-50), and Spurs (16-49) will finish as the NBA’s worst three teams.

Even if Charlotte (21-46) doesn’t pick up another win for the rest of the season, San Antonio would have to go 5-12 the rest of the way to tie the Hornets in the standings. That may not sound like a tall order, but it has taken the Spurs 31 games to get their last five wins.

Detroit and Houston would need six more victories to have even a remote shot at catching the Hornets — it has taken the Pistons 28 games to get their last six wins and the Rockets 33 games to do so.

Given that the Hornets have actually been quite competitive lately and no other team has fewer than 27 victories, we should be able to safely pencil in the Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs as the three teams who will have a 14% shot at the No. 1 pick in this May’s draft lottery.

Of course, even though the NBA’s worst three teams will have equal odds to land the No. 1 pick (and a top-four pick), it still pays to finish at the very bottom of the standings — the NBA’s worst team can’t fall out of the top five as a result of the lottery, whereas its third-worst team could theoretically slide all the way to No. 7.

However, there’s another intriguing subplot in this three-team “race.” The Rockets’ final place in the standings will have a major impact on where a pair of Eastern Conference clubs are drafting in the second round this June.

The Pistons and Spurs control their own second-round picks, but due to a series of trades, protections, and swaps, the Rockets’ second-round pick will be sent to either the Pacers or the Celtics. Indiana will get it if it lands at No. 31 or No. 32, while Boston would receive it if it’s No. 33 (or later). Whichever team doesn’t get Houston’s second-round selection would instead end up with the least favorable of the Mavericks’ and Heat’s second-rounders. As of today, that’d be Miami’s pick at No. 50.

[Note: Boston would have the ability to swap that second-round pick for Portland’s second-rounder, but Indiana wouldn’t.]

You’re almost definitely not going to find a franchise player in the early 30s of a draft, but the hit rate on those picks might be a little better than you think. From 2018-21, for instance, players selected in the 30-36 range included Jalen Brunson, Devonte’ Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Porter Jr., Nic Claxton, Cody Martin, Desmond Bane, and Herbert Jones.

The Pacers know first-hand the value of having an early second-round pick, having used the No. 31 selection in the 2022 draft to nab Andrew Nembhard. Head coach Rick Carlisle has expressed a belief that Nembhard will end up being a top-12 or top-15 player in the ’22 class.

If a team isn’t zeroed in on a specific player in that section of the draft, an early second-round pick could be used as a valuable trade chip that secures multiple future second-rounders or a veteran rotation player. Again, this is something the Pacers know from experience — it cost them four second-rounders to acquire the No. 31 pick in the 2021 draft. And in 2019, they were able to acquire T.J. Warren and three future second-rounders in exchange for that year’s No. 32 pick and a little cash.

Conversely, a pick in the range of No. 50 (which is where the less favorable of Miami’s and Dallas’ pick figures to end up) is more likely to be used on a two-way player. In terms of trade value, you’d be hard-pressed to get more than cash or perhaps a single far-off second-round pick.

Determining where Houston’s second-round pick will land obviously won’t be nearly as dramatic as learning which team wins the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, but the impact on the Pacers and Celtics won’t be insignificant. Boston will be rooting for the Rockets to finish the season strong, moving that pick to No. 33, while Indiana will be hoping for another extended losing streak in Houston.

NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 8th, 2023 at 9:16am CST by Luke Adams

It has been nearly a month since the NBA’s trade deadline passed, and the post-deadline transaction wire continues to be pretty busy, with teams that opened up roster spots at or since the deadline still working to fill them.

Clubs are also making plenty of roster moves with their players on two-way contracts, opening up two-way slots by either promoting those players to standard deals or by cutting them to take a flier on another prospect.

It has been a few weeks since we last checked in on which teams have open roster spots, so it’s worth taking a closer look at that today. If a team isn’t listed below, you can assume it has a full 17-man roster made up of 15 players on full-season standard contracts and a pair on two-way deals.

[RELATED: 2022/23 NBA Roster Counts]

Let’s dive in…

Teams with an open 15-man roster spot:

Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets
Houston Rockets *
Los Angeles Lakers
New York Knicks *
Utah Jazz ^

* These teams have one open roster spot and one filled by a 10-day contract.
^ This team has two open roster spots and one filled by a 10-day contract.

The Celtics, Hornets, and Lakers have pretty straightforward roster situations — they’re carrying 14 players on standard, rest-of-season contracts, with open spot left to fill. The Celtics and Lakers may be more inclined to fill their openings with a veteran who could provide depth in the postseason if necessary. The Hornets, if they don’t re-sign restricted free agent Miles Bridges this season, will likely add a younger prospect on a team-friendly multiyear deal.

The Rockets and Knicks each have one open spot on their standard 15-man roster and are also carrying a player on a 10-day deal — Willie Cauley-Stein for Houston and DaQuan Jeffries for New York. Both players will be eligible for second 10-day contracts when their current pacts expire. If the Rockets and/or Knicks want to go in another direction, they’d have up to two weeks to sign a 14th man.

As for the Jazz, they’re only carrying 13 players on their standard roster and one of those players (Kris Dunn) is on his second 10-day contract with the club. Even if Utah intends to sign Dunn to a rest-of-season deal when his current contract is up, the team will need to make another signing before next weekend to adhere to the NBA’s minimum roster requirements.

Teams with full 15-man rosters that include a 10-day contract:

Brooklyn Nets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards

The Nets (Nerlens Noel), Cavaliers (Sam Merrill), Pistons (Eugene Omoruyi), Warriors (Lester Quinones), Bucks (Meyers Leonard), and Wizards (Jamaree Bouyea) all have a player on a 10-day contract occupying their 15th roster spot, so they could easily open up a roster spot if need be.

Of those players, only Leonard is on his second 10-day deal with the same team, so the others could all be re-signed for another 10 days. The Wizards, however, are reportedly set to sign NBL standout Xavier Cooks to fill the spot currently occupied by Bouyea.

Teams with an open two-way contract slot:

Charlotte Hornets
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns

The Hornets (Bryce McGowens), Knicks (Jeffries), Magic (Admiral Schofield), and Suns (Ish Wainright) have all promoted two-way players to their standard roster since the trade deadline and have yet to fill those two-way openings.

Orlando’s G League affiliate, the Lakeland Magic, is fighting for an NBAGL spot, so there’s some incentive to fill that two-way opening sooner rather than later. Conversely, there’s probably not much urgency for Phoenix to sign another player to a two-way contract, since the Suns don’t have a G League affiliate of their own and two-way players won’t be eligible for the NBA postseason.

Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise if all four of these spots are filled in the coming weeks.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Play-In Race

March 7th, 2023 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

The Western Conference standings have been bunched up for much of the 2022/23 season, but a Portland win and a New Orleans loss helped push the congestion in the play-in race to a new level on Monday night.

The Jazz, Trail Blazers, Lakers, and Pelicans now own matching 31-34 records, tying them for the Nos. 9 through 12 spots in the West. The No. 13 Thunder, at 30-34, are a half-game back of that quartet.

There’s also still a logjam a little higher in the standings. The 34-31 Warriors currently control the No. 5 seed in the conference, but they only lead the 34-32 Timberwolves by a half-game and the Mavericks (33-32) and Clippers (34-33) by one game apiece.

The Mavs and Clips have a two-game cushion on those four teams tied at 31-34, but both clubs have been inconsistent in recent weeks, so it’s not as either one has an iron grip on a top-eight seed.

With just over a month left in the regular season, it looks like the race for the West’s six guaranteed playoff spots and four play-in berths will go down to the wire.

On paper, the Lakers and Pelicans would seem to have an edge in the play-in race over the Jazz, Blazers, and Thunder. After all, Utah downgraded its roster at the trade deadline by trading away Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley, and you could argue Portland took a step back too by moving Josh Hart and Gary Payton II. Oklahoma City wasn’t exactly a deadline buyer and hasn’t shown any organizational urgency to make the playoffs this season.

The Lakers, meanwhile, traded away a first-round pick at the deadline to upgrade their roster, and the Pelicans entered the season determined to build on last year’s first-round exit. Both teams are highly motivated to play in the postseason.

Still, the Lakers are missing LeBron James and the Pelicans don’t have Zion Williamson available, so neither club is at full strength. The Blazers aren’t tanking, and if the Jazz and Thunder are, they’re not doing a great job of it so far — All-Stars Lauri Markkanen and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have helped make sure those two teams have been competitive all season.

Further up the standings, the Warriors, Wolves, Mavs, and Clippers all looked like good bets to make the playoffs entering the season, but all four have had some rocky stretches. Injuries (to Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Kawhi Leonard, among others) have played a part, but the Wolves (Rudy Gobert), Mavs (Kyrie Irving), and Clippers (trade deadline additions, plus Russell Westbrook) have all had a hard time smoothly assimilating new players, and Golden State’s struggles on defense and in road games have resulted in an up-and-down season.

Strength of schedule could be an important factor in the season’s final weeks. According to Tankathon, the Pelicans, Mavericks, Lakers, and Thunder have some of the easiest schedules (based on opposing winning percentages) the rest of the way, while the Blazers, Jazz, Wolves, and Warriors will face tougher paths. The Clippers are right in the middle.

We want to know what you think.

Which six teams will clinch guaranteed playoff spots in the West?
Which four clubs will earn play-in berths?
Which three current play-in contenders will be left on the outside looking in, and which two teams will be eliminated in the play-in tournament without getting a playoff series?
Do you expect any of the teams currently outside the top four to move up into that group by catching the Grizzlies (38-25), Kings (38-26), or Suns (36-29)?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and make your predictions!

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

March 6th, 2023 at 4:47pm CST by Rory Maher

Jordan Clarkson, G, Jazz

2022/23: $13.34MM
2023/24: $14.26MM player option
Stock: Up

Clarkson is expected to decline his player option to land a long-term contract in free agency, which makes a lot of sense. He’s averaging career highs in points (20.8) and assists (4.4) per game and has matched his career best in rebounds per night (4.0) while posting a .444/.338/.816 shooting slash line (.558 true shooting percentage).

The veteran guard will turn 31 years old in the offseason, so this might be his last chance to land a major multiyear payday. He is an all-around poor defensive player, but his play-making has improved this season, and his shot-creation ability is widely coveted.

I don’t have a great feel for how much Clarkson might get in free agency. His representatives could point to the contracts signed by Anfernee Simons (four years, $100MM) and Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM guaranteed) last summer, for example – Clarkson is much older and has less upside, but his strengths, weaknesses and production are fairly similar to those players.

If I were a GM, I would be very hesitant to pay Clarkson that much money, but he has earned a raise on his current deal, that much is certain.

Udoka Azubuike, C, Jazz

2022/23: $2.17MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

A former first-round pick (No. 27 overall in 2020), Azubuike has unfortunately dealt with a few significant ankle injuries in his brief NBA career, which has impacted his development. Utah declined its fourth-year team option on the 23-year-old big man before the season started, sending a strong signal that he wasn’t in the team’s long-term plans.

Azubuike has only appeared in 26 games this season for an average of 5.9 minutes per contest. It’s hard to get much of a read on someone who plays so little, but he is a limited offensive player who struggles at the free throw line (he shot 41.6% in four college seasons and is at 55.2% on very low volume in the NBA).

The remaining 17 games will essentially serve as an audition for Azubuike. How he performs — and if he gets minutes — could very well determine whether or not he’s able to land a guaranteed contract in the offseason. The odds of that happening seem lower than 50/50 at the moment.

Naz Reid, C, Timberwolves

2022/23: $1.93MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Reid’s per 36 numbers have been quite consistent in each of his four seasons. So why is his stock up?

The primary reason is he’s shown that his game is scalable, meaning his production doesn’t suffer with more playing time. The 23-year-old is averaging 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.0 block in 11 games as a fill-in starter (26.1 minutes), with the team going 6-5 in those contests. Playing well against reserves is one thing, but doing it over the course of a full game against starters is something entirely different.

Reid has slimmed down considerably since going undrafted out of LSU in 2019 and has shown that he is a quality backup center capable of spot starts. Something in the range of $8-11MM annually seems within reach — a massive increase on his current minimum-salary contract.

Jaylen Nowell, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: $1.93MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

I liked what I saw from Nowell last season and thought he should have gotten more minutes at times. He is shifty with the ball with a quick first step, and shows some nascent play-making ability.

Something has been off with him for nearly the entire ‘22/23 season, which is unfortunate because he had a big opportunity to establish himself after the Rudy Gobert trade freed up backcourt playing time.

Maybe that’s part of the problem. He often looks like he’s trying too hard and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, often a sign of a player pressing. The steep decline in three-point shooting — from 39.4% last season to 29.3% in ‘22/23 — looks like another mental hurdle, as he hesitates at times even when he’s wide open, instead of trusting himself and letting it fly.

Nowell is only 23 and on a minimum deal. He will get more than that in free agency, but probably not as much as he was aiming for before the season began.

Drew Eubanks, C, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $1.84MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Another player on a minimum-salary deal, Eubanks plays within a clearly defined, limited offensive role of setting hard screens, rolling for the occasional lob, and crashing the offensive glass. His averages of 6.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks don’t exactly jump off the page, though he is shooting an impressive 68.3% from the field through 62 games (19 starts, 19.9 minutes).

However, he is an above-average defensive player who moves his feet well for a big man, allowing him to switch onto smaller players better than most centers. The 26-year-old is also a solid rim protector, making up for his relative lack of height (he’s 6’9”) with powerful leaping ability and solid timing while challenging and blocking shots.

Eubanks isn’t the type of player who is going to land a major payday in free agency, but I do think he’s solidified himself as a quality backup due to his consistent energy and the self-awareness he brings of knowing his role. The Blazers have been better when he’s on the court, which is always a positive sign. A multiyear deal in the range of $4-7MM per season seems pretty reasonable.

Trade Breakdown: Josh Hart To The Knicks (Four-Team Deal)

March 5th, 2023 at 12:58pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the fifth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal four-team deal involving the Knicks, Trail Blazers, Sixers and Hornets.

On February 9:

The Knicks acquired Josh Hart, the draft rights to Bojan Dubljevic, and the draft rights to Daniel Diez (all from Trail Blazers).
The Trail Blazers acquired Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, the Knicks’ 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected), and the draft rights to Ante Tomic (from Knicks).
The Sixers acquired Jalen McDaniels, the Knicks’ 2024 second-round pick (from Hornets), and the Trail Blazers’ 2029 second-round pick.
The Hornets acquired Svi Mykhailiuk, either the Hornets’, Hawks’, or Nets’ 2023 second-round pick (whichever is most favorable; from Sixers), and either the Pelicans’ or Trail Blazers’ 2027 second-round pick (whichever is most favorable; from Trail Blazers).
Note: The Hornets had traded away their 2023 second-round pick in a prior deal.

Note: The Blazers, Sixers and Hornets all generated traded player exceptions in this deal, which can be found here.

The Knicks’ perspective:

Any time you deal away a first-round pick, even if it’s lottery-protected, ideally you want to re-sign the player you’re acquiring, particularly a player who can become a free agent in the offseason like Hart. The Knicks almost certainly would not have made this deal for 25 games of Hart – you can bet that they intend to bring him back, and they have his Bird rights, meaning they won’t require cap room to sign him.

Hart has already said multiple times that he’s looking for a home, is tired of moving, and hopes to remain with New York. That would certainly suggest that there’s mutual interest in the veteran wing sticking with the Knicks, even if the they haven’t publicly said anything about it.

I liked Hart’s fit with the Knicks when the trade was announced, and he has played very well for New York — the team is undefeated in his eight games. He’s averaging 11.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals on .618/.600/.667 shooting in 27.0 MPG thus far.

Obviously, those shooting splits are unsustainable, but Hart has a lot of desirable qualities that mesh well with the players on the roster. One interesting wrinkle is that Hart has been closing games over RJ Barrett, which I think is smart from head coach Tom Thibodeau – Hart is a better defender and doesn’t need the ball on offense. We’ll see if it continues going forward.

Hart has always struck me as a player Thibodeau would love because he plays with maximum effort, chasing after loose balls all over the court. He is a hard-nosed, versatile defensive player. He also is a solid passer on offense, even if he’s fairly limited as a half-court scorer.

The 27-year-old (he turns 28 on Monday) compensates for his relative lack of half-court scoring by being an absolute bull in transition, often pulling down rebounds and going coast-to-coast. He is one of the best rebounders in the league for a wing, particularly for his size (6’5”, 215 pounds), averaging 7.7 boards per game over the past three seasons.

There are two primary knocks against Hart. One is his all-out playing style has led to a number of injuries. He has missed an average of about 19 games per season in his five years leading up to 2022/23, though he has only been sidelined for three this season, not counting the two games missed due to the trade.

The second is that teams are going to dare him to shoot threes, as he’s only at 34.7% for his career from downtown (the league average is 36.0% this season). He was weirdly reluctant to shoot threes with Portland, going through long stretches where he would pass up wide-open shots. That inhibits offensive spacing and can be problematic when paired with a non-shooting big.

Still, he is a valuable role player who does a solid job defending against tough competition, and his ability to make plays for himself and others — especially on fast breaks — is a nice addition to the Knicks. They’re 27^th in pace, so he gives them some extra juice.

Reddish had not played in a game since December 3, and trading a protected first-rounder for him last year didn’t pan out. Arcidiacono and Mykhailiuk rarely saw the court, only playing a combined 66 minutes all season for New York. Trading away three players who weren’t contributing to the team’s on-court success for an impactful role player who almost immediately started closing games is a big deal, especially considering the Knicks have only made the playoffs once in the past nine years.

The Trail Blazers’ perspective:

Portland received a former first-round pick in Reddish and the Knicks’ lottery-protected first-rounder this season for a high-end role player in Hart. Arcidiacono was included for salary-matching purposes and is unlikely to have a role, but he’s not a bad fallback option as a third-string point guard – he takes care of the ball and is a decent shooter.

The Blazers also snagged Thybulle for a second-round pick (to Philly) and sent Charlotte another second-rounder to take a player they didn’t want (Mykhailiuk).

The primary reason the Blazers made this trade is that Hart has an odd contract and is expected to opt out of his player option in search of a long-term raise in free agency. Paying both Hart and Jerami Grant (UFA) would have pushed them into the luxury tax without other cost-cutting moves.

For as solid as Hart is, it’s not like Portland was going anywhere this season whether he was in the lineup or not. It’s a shame, because Damian Lillard has been phenomenal (he’s averaging a career-high 32.3 points with a 65.3 true shooting percentage — he’s at peak Stephen Curry levels of volume and efficiency), but the roster just isn’t good enough to do much beyond fighting for the back end of the play-in tournament.

As previously mentioned, Hart was oddly reluctant to shoot threes this season with the Blazers and I’m not really sure why. However, he will be missed for everything else he provides — most of their problems stem from rebounding and defense anyway, and he was one of their best players in both of those categories.

I like the Thybulle pickup and he looks like a good fit on the roster. He isn’t going to keep shooting 51.6% from beyond the arc like he has through seven games as a Blazer, but he was pigeonholed into a very narrow role with the Sixers and I believe he can provide more all-around value than he showed with them.

Thybulle is an absolute menace on defense and he knows that’s what he’s best at. A part-time wing player earning All-Defensive nods two seasons in a row is practically unheard of, but those awards were well deserved. The Blazers need all the help they can get on that end.

Reddish has now been dealt twice in a little over a year, with his value diminishing pretty drastically – the Knicks gave up a protected first-rounder to acquire him last year, but now moved him and a lottery-protected first to land Hart. The 23-year-old, who was the No. 10 overall pick in 2019, has yet to solidify himself as a solid NBA player.

Like Thybulle, Reddish has played well for Portland so far, averaging 14.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals on .470/.373/.941 shooting in eight games (27.7 minutes). Those numbers far exceed his career averages, which are pretty underwhelming (10.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steal on .398/.327/.849 shooting in 161 games (24.7 minutes).

Both Thybulle and Reddish can be restricted free agents in the summer if the Blazers extend each of them a qualifying offer – I don’t think that’s a lock for either player, particularly Reddish.

The first-rounder Portland acquired from New York would currently land at No. 23 overall, which is decent. Definitely nothing to scoff at for a player on a pseudo-expiring contract whom the Blazers couldn’t reasonably afford to retain given the overall state of the team. If the Knicks go in a major slump to end the season and miss the playoffs — which seems extremely unlikely considering how hot they’ve been lately — the Blazers would instead receive four second-round picks.

Another aspect of this deal from Portland’s side is that it probably made them worse in the short term, which increases the odds of missing the playoffs and keeping their own lottery pick. The Blazers owe their pick to the Bulls if they make the postseason – if it doesn’t convey this year, the protections roll over to 2024 (it’s lottery-protected for several years, which makes it difficult for the team to trade future picks due to the Stepien rule).

The Hornets’ perspective:

Charlotte’s side of things is pretty straightforward. The Hornets were concerned about how much McDaniels would cost in unrestricted free agency and decided to move him and get something of value while they could.

I don’t think they necessarily wanted to trade McDaniels, especially after spending four years working with him on developing his game and seeing it start to pay off. Forwards who are 6’9″ with a bit of two-way versatility aren’t exactly common.

The problem is that Gordon Hayward is under contract through next season, the Miles Bridges situation still isn’t resolved, P.J. Washington will be a restricted free agent this summer, and Kelly Oubre is unrestricted. McDaniels is arguably the worst player of the group, making him relatively expendable.

The Hornets are almost certainly getting back their own 2023 second-rounder in the deal, which Philadelphia previously controlled and would currently land at No. 34 overall. Charlotte sent New York’s 2024 second-rounder to the Sixers as part of the multi-team agreement, which was slightly surprising, but if the Knicks are good again next year, that pick would land in the back half of the second round.

That No. 34 overall selection has real value and could be packaged with other seconds to move into the late first round this June. It could also be paired with Denver’s first-rounder (currently No. 28), which the Hornets control, to move up a little. Either way, it gives them more options in the upcoming draft and for trades.

The Hornets also picked up a 2027 second-rounder from Portland to take on Mykhailiuk’s salary. It’s reasonable to view that as a higher upside pick than the Knicks’ second-rounder they shipped to Philly. President of basketball operations Mitch Kupchak selected Mykhailiuk No. 47 overall back in 2016 when he was with the Lakers, so there is a connection there, but it seems unlikely that the veteran wing will have much of a role going forward.

The Sixers’ perspective:

The key takeaway from the Sixers’ side of things is they moved out of the luxury tax and arguably upgraded on the wing at the same time. I’m not sure I would take McDaniels over Thybulle in a vacuum, but it’s at worst debatable and he certainly provides length and positional size, which the team lacked.

Thybulle is a terrific defensive player, but he wasn’t consistently in the rotation this season due to his offensive limitations. He seemed to fall out of favor with the team after last year’s poor playoff showing, and the Sixers decided to trade him instead of letting him reach free agency.

McDaniels was averaging career highs in all the major counting stats for Charlotte, including points (10.6), rebounds (4.8), assists (2.0), steals (1.2) and minutes (26.7) per game. The 25-year old also hasn’t missed a game this season, which is impressive (he technically did miss one game due to the trade, but that was out of his control).

McDaniels doesn’t stand out in any one particular area, which is sort of a double-edged sword. It means he’s versatile enough to do a lot of different things on the court, but none at an elite level.

The big question mark with McDaniels is essentially the same as it was with Thybulle: can he make enough threes to stay on the court against top teams? With a roster loaded with talented scorers, other types of shots are hard to come by for role players like McDaniels. He is only at 34.1% for his career from deep, including 32.1% this season.

The Sixers picked up his Bird rights as part of the trade, giving them the ability to offer McDaniels more money and years than rival teams. For what they gave up, they likely aren’t committed to re-signing him though, nor should they be. They have the rest of the season to evaluate him and see how he does in the playoffs.

The 25-year-old’s minutes have been cut back pretty significantly since the trade, and his role is more in line with what it would be on a good team (which Philadelphia is). He was getting more run with the Hornets out of necessity due to injuries.

As previously mentioned, the Sixers basically swapped second-round picks with Charlotte, though the one they got back has far less upside. They also received Portland’s 2029 second-rounder for Thybulle — not much of a return, but he was only averaging 12.1 minutes per game with Philly this season and is on an expiring contract.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 1st, 2023 at 3:53pm CST by Rory Maher

Brook Lopez, C, Bucks

2022/23: $13,906,976
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Lopez has been one of the NBA’s best stories this season, rebounding from a mostly lost season in 2021/22 after undergoing back surgery (he played just 13 regular season games and 12 playoff games). He’s having an outstanding year and has been a major factor in Milwaukee’s league-leading 44-17 record, averaging 14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .508/.370/.766 shooting through 60 games (30.3 MPG).

The veteran center, who is one of the leading candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, has said he hopes to remain with the Bucks, and the interest is reportedly mutual. Lopez has definitely earned a raise, but given his age (he turns 35 next month), I’d be a little surprised if he gets more than a two-year deal.

Khris Middleton, F, Bucks

2022/23: $37,948,276
2023/24: $40,396,552 (player option)
Stock: Down

Middleton’s stock is down primarily due to injuries, which have limited him to 20 games to this point. The Bucks have been very cautious with the three-time All-Star, as he’s been coming off the bench lately and averaging his fewest minutes per game (21.5) since he was a rookie. However, despite the small sample size, it’s worth noting that the Bucks have been terrific with Middleton on the court – he has a plus-9.7 net rating, per NBA.com.

A career 38.9% three-point shooter, Middleton is making just 29.9% from deep this season, which has hurt his offensive efficiency (the rest of his shooting numbers are very close to career norms). That seems more like an aberration than a long-term concern.

The remaining 21 regular season games and how he fares in the postseason will likely determine whether or not the 31-year-old decides to pick up his player option for ’23/24. Let’s not forget that Middleton averaged 23.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.1 APG and 1.5 SPG during Milwaukee’s championship run a couple years ago — I would not be surprised at all if he bounces back from a disappointing season over the next few months.

Ayo Dosunmu, G, Bulls

2022/23: $1,563,518
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Neutral

The 38^th pick of the 2021 draft, Dosunmu had a strong rookie campaign, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team after averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.3 APG on .520/.376/.679 shooting in 77 games (40 starts, 27.4 MPG).

His numbers have been quite similar in year two, with the 23-year-old averaging 9.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.8 APG on .498/.316/.806 shooting in 60 games (49 starts, 28.1 MPG). Obviously the three-point percentage is down, which is unfortunate, and he hasn’t necessarily progressed from a statistical standpoint like some second-year players do.

Advanced stats aren’t very high on Dosunmu, and the Bulls have been better by a pretty significant margin when he’s not on the court. While Dosunmu may not have made a second-year leap, I still like his defensive potential and he reportedly has a strong work ethic and team-first attitude.

Dosunmu met the starter criteria, so the value of his qualifying offer increased to $5,216,324. It will be interesting to see how his restricted free agency plays out.

Hamidou Diallo, G/F, Pistons

2022/23: $5,200,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Diallo is challenging to evaluate because his strengths and weakness are more pronounced than most players. He is a non-shooting wing with pretty bad tunnel vision, which you would expect would make him ineffective in a league constantly looking for floor-spacers.

That isn’t the case. The 24-year-old is one of the most athletic players in the NBA and he plays with a tremendous amount of energy. He utilizes those strengths to play strong defense, crash the boards, drive, and catch lobs, and he’s been very effective at all of those things in ‘22/23.

The Pistons have an overall defensive rating of 117.6, which ranks 28^th in the league. When Diallo is on the court, Detroit has the equivalent of the league’s fourth-best defense. He is shooting a career-high 58.1% from the field in large part because he is converting 71.8% of his attempts at the rim, per DunksAndThrees.com – a better mark than many centers.

Sometimes Diallo’s energy carries over into recklessness. He fouls too much and can be turnover-prone. Even if his game is polarizing, I think he deserves a raise, perhaps a deal in the range of $6-10MM per year.

Oshae Brissett, F, Pacers

2022/23: $1,846,738
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

After averaging 9.6 PPG and 5.4 RPG on .428/.368/.716 shooting in 88 games (41 starts, 23.7 MPG) with Indiana from 2020-22, Brissett had an opportunity to establish himself as a reliable rotation player in a contract year. Unfortunately, that has not come to fruition.

The Pacers have been relatively weak at power forward all season. Brissett hasn’t helped much. He’s averaging 5.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG on .388/.333/.693 shooting in 49 games in ‘22/23, with his playing time cut back to 16.0 MPG. He has been a healthy scratch in seven of the last eight games.

Still just 24 years old, Brissett should land another (relatively small) deal in free agency — he’s a solid rebounder and defender. But those shooting numbers are a problem, and his stock is definitely down compared to the past couple seasons.

Trade Breakdown: Lakers/Jazz/Wolves Three-Team Blockbuster

February 28th, 2023 at 10:53pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the fourth entry in our series breaking down the significant tr ades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a blockbuster deal between the Jazz, Lakers and Timberwolves.

On February 9, the Lakers acquired D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt; the Jazz acquired Russell Westbrook, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson and the Lakers’ 2027 first-round pick (top-four protected); and the Timberwolves acquired Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and three second-round picks (one from L.A., two from Utah).

Notes: Westbrook subsequently reached a buyout agreement with the Jazz and signed with the Clippers. All three teams involved in this deal generated traded player exceptions, which can be found right here.

The Jazz’s perspective:

The Jazz weren’t invested in continuing the season with their current roster, despite a surprisingly fun ride in a year that they were expected to be at the bottom of the standings.

The move opened up playing time for Ochai Agbaji, Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker, three young players who had been in and out of the lineup (Sexton has been a rotation regular, but he’s dealt with injuries – this deal moved him into the starting lineup). Vanderbilt had already been moved to the bench due to the emergence of Walker Kessler, and the two were an awkward fit together offensively because neither is much of a threat to shoot (Vanderbilt compensates for his lack of shooting somewhat by being a good passer and ball-handler for a power forward).

Many fans think the Jazz “lost” this deal. That perception seems to stem from two things: the Lakers only giving up one first-rounder, when it was assumed they’d have to move off one just to trade Westbrook’s $47.1MM expiring salary, and the Jazz’s asking prices not being met.

The Jazz were reportedly looking for first-round picks for all three of Conley, Beasley and Vanderbilt. But that was never a realistic expectation.

Based on the structure of the deal, it’s pretty clear the Jazz were motivated to move off Conley’s contract for ‘23/24, which is partially guaranteed at $14.32MM ($24.36MM base salary), and didn’t at all mind adding Westbrook’s expiring deal to do it (it’s worth noting that the Jazz did add Jones’ $2.6MM player option for next season, which will almost certainly be exercised; Toscano-Anderson is on an expiring minimum-salary deal). I viewed Conley’s contract as having negative value leading up to the trade deadline, as he’ll turn 36 years old next season and has already declined on both ends of the court, particularly defensively.

Beasley provides something that every team wants: high volume 3-point shooting. However, he’s a very streaky shooter, and doesn’t offer a ton in other areas. He makes $15.56MM this season with a $16.52MM team option for ‘23/24. I thought Beasley had slightly positive value, but nothing special – maybe a heavily-protected first-round pick or a few seconds.

Vanderbilt was the player who had the most value of the three, in my opinion, due to his age (23), rate of improvement, versatility, strong defense, and team-friendly contract – he makes $4.37MM this season and $4.7MM in ‘23/24 (only partially guaranteed at $300K). I thought Utah could get a late first-rounder this season or a lottery-protected first in the future for him.

In aggregate, that’s one player with solid value, one with slightly positive value, and one with negative. Not a ton of overall value despite the three being rotation players for a decent team.

Obviously, the Jazz highly valued the lightly protected pick from the Lakers. Even in a scenario where the Lakers have the worst record in ’26/27 (they probably won’t, but you never know), there would still be a 47.9% chance the pick lands at fifth overall and goes to Utah. The major downside – and the upside for the Lakers – is if it does fall in the top four, the Jazz only receive the Lakers’ 2027 second-rounder.

Another factor in this trade from Utah’s side of things that I thought was interesting is also pretty cynical. If the Jazz believe Minnesota going from Russell to Conley is a downgrade — and it is at this point in their careers, which is why the Wolves got second-rounders back — then that increases the odds of the Wolves missing the playoffs. In that scenario, the Jazz would get a lottery pick in 2023 (they control Minnesota’s pick due to the Rudy Gobert trade).

They could also reasonably view the deal as a short-term upgrade for the Lakers, which would increase L.A.’s odds of passing Minnesota and Utah in the standings, and thus increase the odds of the Jazz controlling two lottery picks. For the rest of the season, the better the Lakers do and the worse the Wolves and Jazz do, the better it is for the Jazz as far as those first-rounders go.

The Jazz held out for a long time to get the best deal they could. This turned out to be it.

The Lakers’ perspective:

I think the Lakers made out well in this deal, but it did reduce their draft arsenal to go for a star in the future (that may or may not have been realistic). Still, they upgraded their roster, got younger, and the players make sense for what they need.

Los Angeles replaced one player who was a poor fit and two little-used reserves for three potential starters; at worst they’re rotation regulars. None of the outgoing players were shooters, and they picked up a couple pretty good ones.

Russell, 27, is having a strong year from an efficiency standpoint, shooting career highs from all over the court (54.3% on twos, 38.9% on threes, 85.0% from the line). However, he is not a great rebounder or defender, and his decision-making can be questionable as a lead ball-handler.

That’s less of a concern with the Lakers, as he can play alongside James and/or Dennis Schroder. That allows Russell to function both on and off the ball, which is ideal for his skill set. Unfortunately, he sprained his ankle in his fourth game back with Los Angeles, but the injury isn’t considered a long-term concern.

As I’ve mentioned previously, Beasley is a feast-or-famine type shooter who can go off at any given time. It’s a bit of roller coaster ride watching him from game-to-game because you never know if he’s going to be on that day or not, and he doesn’t stop shooting even if he’s off.

While he doesn’t provide a whole lot else, opponents treat the 26-year-old like a sharpshooter who has to be accounted for at all times, and that creates space for teammates. The Lakers didn’t have anyone like that on the roster before the deal, even if Beasley is more of a very willing good shooter than a great one.

Vanderbilt is the player I think fans will be most excited about of the three, despite being the least well known. He brings a much-needed infusion of speed, length, defensive versatility, hustle and rebounding the team has lacked all season.

Still just 23 years old, Vanderbilt instantly becomes the best wing defender the Lakers have had since they decided not to re-sign Alex Caruso in 2021 free agency. His energy is infectious and can swing the tide of games – he was absolutely instrumental in the team’s huge comeback victory over Dallas on Sunday.

The three players were teammates on the Wolves from 2020-22, so they already have some built-in chemistry (strangely, Beasley and Vanderbilt have now been packaged together in three separate trades). Only Vanderbilt has a small partial guarantee for next season, which gives the Lakers the flexibility to move on from any of them in the offseason, though I think that’s unlikely.

Another positive aspect of the deal is the Lakers added more desirable contracts. Almost their entire roster was on minimum- or maximum-salary deals before the deadline, but now they have more variety in that regard, assuming they retain all three players.

I don’t think this trade suddenly transformed the Lakers into title contenders this season, but I do think it made them much better than they were — now and going forward.

My biggest question mark from the Lakers’ side is, if this trade was available in February, could they have done it earlier in the season? Because they have to dig themselves out of a hole to climb up the standings, and there aren’t many games left in which to do it – a task made even more difficult by the foot injury to James.

The Wolves’ perspective:

One of the downsides of dealing away multiple starters at once — Patrick Beverley and Vanderbilt last year in the Gobert trade — is that it can erode a team’s chemistry. The Wolves clearly got on well last season. That matters for a young team, especially one that historically has been a bottom dweller in the standings.

The Gobert trade upended that chemistry, transforming a fun up-and-coming team with low expectations into a win-now team with high expectations. It’s pretty clear some of the remaining players were less than thrilled with the deal, especially at the start of ‘22/23. Some moved on and slowly learned how to work with Gobert. Some did not.

Russell was in the latter group. He frequently had terrible body language this season, specifically anytime Gobert made a mistake (fumbled passes, etc.).

Perhaps more than anything else, this deal was a pretty clear vote of no confidence in Russell. Obviously, the Wolves did not value him at whatever he was asking for in contract extension negotiations.

The Wolves could not have easily cleared a significant amount of cap space in the offseason even if they had let Russell walk in free agency. Instead, they decided to push that decision a year down the line and replace his salary slot with Conley, a mature veteran who should be able to provide leadership for a team that, from the outside looking in, is lacking in that department.

Minnesota is trying to remedy some of the chemistry issues by adding a calming, professional locker-room presence in Conley. The fact that Conley played with Gobert for three seasons was obviously a motivating factor as well. They already have some built-in chemistry, which was clearly lacking with Russell.

He’s also a much better decision-maker than Russell on the court, with his assist-to-turnover ratio at 4.4-to-1, which ranks fifth in the NBA (Russell’s is 2.31-to-1, which ranks 112th). That’s important for a Wolves team that ranks 28th in the league in turnovers per game.

I have a lot of respect for how Conley carries himself, both on and off the court. He was one of the league’s most underrated players during his 12 years with Memphis, and his teams have consistently been better when he’s playing — that was true for Utah this year too (better on offense and worse on defense, but still plus overall). He has a high basketball IQ and generally doesn’t beat himself with careless mistakes.

Alexander-Walker was likely more of a throw-in for salary-matching purposes, but the Wolves will get a closer look at him for the rest of the season (he can be a RFA if they give him a qualifying offer). The former 17th overall pick is having a solid year from an efficiency standpoint and has impressed me in some late-game situations with his defense, even if he wasn’t consistently in Utah’s rotation.

While I understand the logic behind the move from Minnesota’s side of the deal, I also think the Wolves took on the most short- and long-term risk.

Make no mistake, the Wolves knew this was was a downgrade from a production standpoint — that’s why they got back three second-round picks in the deal. Considering his age, size (6’1″, 175 pounds) and contract, if Conley declines any further, it will be very difficult to move him next season.

Russell may have his flaws, but he was also clutch this season, having bailed them out on several occasions during second-half collapses (a season-long problem). He was the team’s second-leading scorer with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined for most of the season, and removing him from the equation puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the roster to replace Russell’s scoring – the Wolves are just 21^st in the league in offensive rating.

The early returns haven’t been promising. Minnesota has gone 1-4 since the deal was finalized, though in fairness some key rotation players have been in and out of the lineup.

The key takeaway from the Wolves’ end is that they preferred to get something back for Russell rather than losing him for nothing in free agency. Not wanting to make a significant investment in Russell makes sense to me if they didn’t view him as a long-term fit. Still, if they miss the playoffs and the Jazz get extremely lucky and that pick lands early, it would be an unmitigated disaster for Minnesota.

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