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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 17th, 2023 at 3:59pm CST by Rory Maher

An injury-plagued 2022/23 regular season saw the Heat go 44-38, barely making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the East after winning their second play-in game. The rest of the postseason was an entirely different story, with Miami making one of the most remarkable runs in league history.

The Heat dispatched the NBA’s best regular season team, the Bucks, in the first round, defeated the No. 5 seed Knicks in the second round, and triumphed over the Celtics – who held the league’s second-best regular season record – in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The last series was a roller coaster, with Miami reeling off three straight wins – including the first two in Boston – only to see the Celtics rally to even the series at 3-3. The Heat emerged victorious in Game 7 in Boston, getting revenge after being eliminated by the Celtics in similar circumstances last year.

Miami’s Cinderella run ended in the NBA Finals, with the Heat falling to the champion Nuggets in five games. Miami’s defense was outstanding in the Finals, but the offense struggled, scoring 95 or fewer points in all four losses.

It was the second Finals appearance in the past four seasons since the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in 2019, and they came very close to a third last year. The club will be focused on winning a few more playoff games in ’23/24 in order to bring a fourth NBA championship to Miami.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

Making the NBA Finals is a very difficult thing to do, and it’s worth acknowledging the accomplishment, even though the Heat were obviously disappointed to fall a little short of their ultimate goal. Despite their success, there could be a significant amount of roster turnover this offseason, in large part due to finances.

Victor Oladipo, who unfortunately sustained another major knee injury in the first round against Milwaukee, is essentially a lock to exercise his $9.45MM player option. Miami is expected to guarantee Haywood Highsmith‘s $1.9MM salary, and the team controls the No. 18 pick in next week’s draft, which has a $3.46MM cap hold.

Assuming the Heat keep that pick — which is far from certain — they would have about $176.6MM committed to 10 players. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, with the new restrictive second tax apron set for $17.5MM above the tax line, or $179.5MM.

That $176.6MM figure does not include any of the team’s free agents, including some key rotation members. The Heat will have Bird rights on Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, who started the entire playoffs. A trio of big men — Kevin Love, Cody Zeller and Omer Yurtseven — make up the other three free agents on standard contracts (Yurtseven will be restricted if given a qualifying offer).

Strus and Vincent are expected to command significant raises on their minimum-salary contracts. The Heat would be facing a major luxury tax bill if they re-signed both players to eight-figure deals. Oladipo is an obvious trade candidate if they’re looking to shed money, as he could miss most or all of next season with the torn patellar tendon.

Butler will be 34 years old in September. As such, the Heat are firmly in win-now mode, and are always on the lookout for star talent — it’s only natural that recent reports have indicated that will continue.

The Heat owe a lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City, which complicates, to some extent, their ability to move additional first-rounders. Still, they could include up to three first-round selections – including this year’s No. 18 pick – in a trade offer for a star this summer.

Part of the reason why people around the league expect there to be quite a bit of star player movement this offseason is because the more punitive aspects of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will be phased in over the next couple seasons. For projected taxpayers like the Heat, that means there’s an opportunity to potentially land a star before those changes fully kick in.

NBA insiders expect Wizards guard Bradley Beal, a three-time All-Star, to be traded at some point this offseason, with the Heat viewed as a natural landing spot. They have the types of salaries (two of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson) to match Beal’s huge contract — he’s owed nearly $208MM over the next four seasons, including $46.7MM in ’23/24.

Lowry and Robinson were previously viewed as having negative trade value due to their contracts, but they both played key roles in helping the Heat advance to the Finals. Lowry’s $29.7MM deal expires after next season, while Robinson is still owed $47.5MM through ’25/26 (the final year is partially guaranteed).

Herro, who missed all but one half of the playoffs after breaking a couple of fingers in his right hand, is owed $120MM over the next four seasons after signing a rookie scale extension prior to ’22/23. Caleb Martin is another player worth watching, as “a lot of teams have interest” in his 3-and-D skill set and team-friendly contract — he’s owed $13.9MM over the next two seasons.

However, while he is a very skilled scorer, Beal hasn’t played solid defense for multiple years and has been plagued by injuries of late, appearing in just 90 of a possible 172 games over the past two seasons. Of course, the biggest impediment to acquiring him is his full no-trade clause, which would make it extremely difficult to move him in the future if the Heat were to acquire him.

While I don’t love the fit from Miami’s perspective, reporting on Saturday indicated the team was engaged in serious talks to acquire Beal from Washington. Even if the Heat could land him without giving up any draft capital, which seems unlikely, I would have viewed him as more of a fallback option than a top priority. There’s a real scenario in which they’d need to keep their draft picks just to have a chance of moving him down the line if things went south.

Zach LaVine could hold more appeal, as Chicago is reportedly gauging his trade value. But the Bulls would also be seeking more in return for him than the Wizards would for Beal.

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard is three years older than Beal (Lillard will be 33 in July; Beal turns 30 in a couple weeks) and nearly five years older than LaVine (28), but he’s also in a different class as a player. The seven-time All-NBA member (vs. one for Beal and zero for LaVine) averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG in ’22/23 along with elite efficiency, posting a Stephen Curry-esque 64.5% true shooting percentage.

None of the three are great defenders, but Lillard is by far the best ball-handler and passer, as well as the most dynamic offensive player and shot-creator. His seemingly unlimited shooting range warps defenses, and he exploits that by utilizing his underrated ability to drive and draw fouls — he averaged a career-best 9.6 free throw attempts in ’22/23 and converted 91.4% at the charity stripe. Miami ranked just 25th in offense during the regular season, so they do need help on that end despite their impressive playoff run.

Still, even though Lillard recently listed the Heat as a team he would want to join if he ever asked for a trade, there’s no indication that will happen anytime soon, and I’m skeptical they’d have enough assets to deal for him unless he explicitly says he only wants to join Miami. He has also dealt with his own injuries the past couple years, and will make even more money than Beal over the next four seasons. Obviously, acquiring him would be a risk, since he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.

I don’t see Bam Adebayo going anywhere, even if a major star unexpectedly submits a trade request — perhaps someone like Joel Embiid, for example. Adebayo is too important to the team’s culture, and he won’t turn 26 until next month. He’ll also be eligible for a lucrative extension this offseason, but financially it makes more sense for him to wait on that decision. If he makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year in ’23/24, he’ll meet the performance criteria for a super-max extension, which requires players to have at least seven years of experience (Adebayo just completed his sixth season).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Haywood Highsmith ($1,902,137)
    • Note: Highsmith’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 5.
  • Total: $1,902,137

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 18 overall pick ($3,458,400)
  • Total: $3,458,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Kyle Lowry (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,700,000

Note: If the Heat’s team salary exceeds the second tax apron, they would lose access to any form of the mid-level exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

June 12th, 2023 at 7:47am CST by Rory Maher

After coming within two games of winning their 18th championship in 2021/22 under first-year head coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics had both a promising and strange offseason last year.

On the plus side, they traded for guard Malcolm Brogdon, who went on to win Sixth Man of the Year, and signed veteran forward Danilo Gallinari. Unfortunately, Gallinari tore his ACL while playing with the Italian national team last summer, and then Udoka was suspended for the ’22/23 season last September for violating “organizational guidelines” after a consensual affair with a female staffer.

Despite the dramatic circumstances that unexpectedly thrust Joe Mazzulla into the lead coaching role, Boston’s on-court results actually improved during the regular season. The team won six more games en route to a 57-25 record, the second-best mark in the NBA.

The Celtics had all the hallmarks of a championship-caliber club entering the playoffs, holding the league’s second-best offense and defense and the top overall net rating (plus-6.7).

Things quickly went awry in the postseason, however, with the Celtics unexpectedly dropping a couple of games in their first-round series against the Hawks before facing a 3-2 deficit in their second-round series against the Sixers. Boston pulled through by winning the final two games, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, only to immediately lose three straight against the Heat and face the unprecedented task of trying to win four consecutive elimination games.

The Celtics staged an admirable comeback, winning three in a row to even the series, but got blown out at home in Game 7, with Jayson Tatum suffering an ankle injury on the game’s first play and Jaylen Brown struggling mightily, going 8-of-23 from the field along with eight turnovers.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan

While they obviously fell short of their ultimate goal of winning the title, it’s still impressive that the Celtics have advanced to at least the Conference Finals in five of the past seven seasons. That illustrates how close they’ve been to a breakthrough for several years now while also showing how incredibly difficult it is to win four consecutive playoff series in order to emerge with the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Only a handful of teams have just one unrestricted free agent this summer, at least right now, and Boston is one of them. However, that doesn’t mean the Celtics don’t have some important decisions to make in the coming weeks.

Brown became eligible for a super-max extension after his first All-NBA berth in ’22/23, earning a spot on the Second Team. Based on what president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said after they were eliminated, it sounds like the Celtics fully intend to offer Brown the projected five-year, $290MM+ contract, which would be the largest in NBA history.

Tatum will also be extension-eligible, but he’ll definitely wait a year to maximize his earnings. The 25-year-old will be in position to sign his own super-max contract in 2024 no matter how the upcoming season goes, having met the performance criteria by making the All-NBA First Team in each of the past two seasons. He just needs one more year of NBA experience to officially become super-max eligible.

Would the Celtics be open to trading Brown if the right opportunity arose? Perhaps. But he’s only 26, and they’ve obviously had a lot of success with him and Tatum. It seems far more likely that the club will continue to try to complement its stars rather than split them up.

Brown’s possible extension won’t kick in until ’24/25, so the Celtics have one season of leeway until things start to get really complicated from a financial standpoint. That said, bringing back the same core group next season — if that’s even the goal — won’t be cheap.

Forward Grant Williams will be a restricted free agent, and while his season was a little uneven (in part due to injury), he’s due for a big raise on the $4.3MM he made this past season. His numbers (8.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG in 25.9 MPG) look modest on the surface, but he has turned himself into a very good shooter and he’s a versatile defender as well, so his skill set has a lot of value, especially in a free agent class without much star talent available.

Gallinari is a near-lock to exercise his $6.8MM player option coming off a major injury. That would leave the Celtics with a $158MM+ payroll with 10 players on guaranteed contracts. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron is at $179.5MM.

I’m not sure how much money Williams will receive, but for the sake of argument let’s say he re-signs with Boston on a four-year, $60MM contract, with a $15MM annual cap hit. That would put the team’s payroll at $173MM+ with 11 players under contract.

In that scenario, the Celtics could (barely) stay below the second apron as long as their three other players are on minimum deals, but they wouldn’t be able to use the mid-level exception to sign a free agent. They’d also have to decline their $3.5MM team option on Mike Muscala, which isn’t a deal-breaker or anything since he wasn’t in the playoff rotation.

If they’re not confident in Gallinari’s ability to bounce back from a second torn ACL (he’ll be 35 in August), they could offload his salary by attaching some draft capital. That should enable them to use the taxpayer MLE, though at $5MM it’s fair to wonder how impactful that addition might be.

Payton Pritchard requested a trade before the February deadline and was disappointed to not be dealt, so he’s an obvious candidate to be moved if the Celtics can find something they like. They definitely won’t just salary dump him because he wants a bigger opportunity though. If Boston is hesitant to use draft assets to move off Gallinari, the team could package Pritchard with him instead.

In the playoffs, one thing that really stood out to me was Robert Williams was not the all-over-the-place defensive force that he was in ’21/22. That makes sense, since he was slow to recover from a second knee procedure in training camp and was limited to just 35 games, but the Celtics certainly missed his roaming weak-side play-making and ability to change shots. Hopefully he’ll regain his prior form, but it’s worth monitoring how he looks to start next season, as his game is very reliant on athleticism.

It may seem like I’m implying the Celtics will have a quiet offseason, and that could end up being the case. However, Stevens has consistently been active in looking for roster upgrades, and he won’t hesitate to shake things up if he thinks it will improve their odds of winning their first championship since 2008.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Luke Kornet ($2,413,304)
  • Justin Champagnie ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Champagnie would receive a partial guarantee of $50K if he’s not waived on or before August 1; that partial guarantee would increase to $350K if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the regular season.
  • Total: $4,341,200

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 35 overall (cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Jaylen Brown (veteran)
  • Jayson Tatum (veteran)
  • Derrick White (veteran)
  • Payton Pritchard (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Tatum is ineligible to sign the super-max extension he has qualified for until 2024.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,160,955

Note: The Celtics would lose the taxpayer mid-level exception if their team salary is above the second tax apron; they would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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Hoops Rumors’ 2023 NBA Offseason Previews By Team

June 10th, 2023 at 11:29am CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2023 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at their salary cap situations and the roster decisions they’ll have to make this summer

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 9th, 2023 at 7:55am CST by Rory Maher

The Warriors entered the 2022/23 season as the defending champions, having won their fourth title in eight years last June. However, things quickly went off the rails before the season even started, with Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole during training camp. It was a long, bumpy ride the rest of the way.

A poor start which saw the the Warriors drop seven of their first 10 games – including five straight – certainly didn’t help, and every time they reeled off a winning streak, a losing streak quickly followed. The Warriors were within four games of .500 the entire campaign until the very end of the season, when they won their final two games to finish 44-38 and enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed in the West.

A tight seven-game series with the upstart Kings showed the resiliency of both squads, with Stephen Curry carrying Golden State to a first-round victory with a 50-point performance in Game 7. Untimely shooting slumps and shaky defense played a significant role in the Warriors’ semifinal loss to the Lakers — they dropped the series in six games.

With an incredibly accomplished but aging core, the Warriors face perhaps the most critical offseason in team history and certainly the most important during the Curry-Green-Klay Thompson era. Shoring up the team’s depth and defense, which dropped from second to 14th over the past two seasons, should be a priority.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

It’s not hyperbole to say that no other team in the league will be more affected by the punitive aspects of the new CBA than the Warriors, who have been one of the league’s biggest spenders for years. As a repeat taxpayer, they could be facing a $500MM+ payroll (salaries and tax combined) in ’23/24 if their current roster remains intact.

Bob Myers stepping down as president of basketball operations was a really big deal. The decision could very well have a downstream effect on the other key figures within the organization. He had great relationships Curry, Thompson, Green and head coach Steve Kerr, and was known as one of the best communicators in the sport.

Green has a $27.6MM player option, which he could decline to enter free agency. Thompson is extension-eligible and entering the final year of his contract. Kerr is entering the final year of his deal as well, with a recent report indicating that he could be looking for a big pay raise after Detroit’s Monty Williams became the highest-paid coach in the league.

Although various reports indicated that Mike Dunleavy Jr. might be Myers’ eventual successor, owner Joe Lacob stated he’s not ready to name a replacement. That leaves the front office in a tenuous position at an extremely important time.

In addition to Green, guard Donte DiVincenzo, who was signed for part of the taxpayer mid-level exception last summer, has a $4.7MM player option of his own. Golden State currently controls the No. 19 pick in the upcoming draft.

If Green and DiVincenzo exercise their options (which is far from a lock — I think DiVincenzo in particular is likely to decline it in search of a raise) and the Warriors keep the pick, they’d be looking at a $213MM+ payroll with 13 players on guaranteed contracts. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, and the highly-restrictive second tax apron kicks in at $179.5MM.

If they stay above the second apron, our current understanding is the Warriors would lose access to the taxpayer MLE, and there are several more roster-building restrictions beyond just that. Most of those changes won’t be implemented immediately, but they’ll likely all be in effect by the 2024/25 season.

It’s essentially a pseudo-hard cap, which will make life difficult for the Warriors’ front office. That said, even though the payroll is likely to be massive no matter what happens with Green, the team does have some desirable assets.

For example, Kevon Looney is on an extremely team-friendly contract. But he’s also been with the Warriors his entire career, seems to get along well with both the old guard and the young players, and having value contracts is absolutely essential when you have two of the highest-paid players in the league (Curry will have the league’s largest cap hit in ’23/24; Thompson will be 12th).

Andrew Wiggins is on a relatively team-friendly deal as well, and he would have a long list of suitors if the Warriors made him available. But as with Looney, it would be hard to replace what Wiggins provides, as he was arguably the team’s second-best player during the playoff run in 2022.

Curry definitely isn’t going anywhere, and I’d be surprised if the Warriors entertain trading Thompson. If I were running the team though, I would seriously consider it. His overall numbers in ’22/23 look pretty similar to his career averages, but the major leg injuries he suffered (a torn ACL and a torn Achilles) that caused him to miss two seasons have sapped some of his athleticism, and he isn’t nearly the defender he once was. Still, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I doubt Gary Payton II will be on the move so soon after the Warriors traded former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to reacquire him in February. That leaves the team’s young players.

Poole’s up-and-down season in many ways was reflective of the Warriors’ results as a whole. His relationship with Green — which was reportedly quite good before the punch — definitely seemed strained throughout ’22/23, and it’s hard to envision that changing. I’m not sure how rival teams would view his contract extension. On one hand, he still showed flashes of promise, and he helped keep the offense afloat when Curry missed extended time with injuries. On the other, Poole’s careless turnovers and porous defense can be quite frustrating.

I’m fairly certain that former lottery picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody would have positive trade value, despite their own inconsistent seasons. They’re only 20 and 21 years old, entering their third seasons, and make less than $10MM combined in ’23/24. Moody feels a little more likely to stick around after a solid playoff run that saw Kuminga glued to the bench.

Packaging some combination of Poole, Kuminga and the No. 19 overall pick could be an option. But cost-controlled assets like Kuminga and the first-rounder are also really important. If they keep the pick, I wonder if the Warriors will draft a more experienced prospect after going for younger, less NBA-ready players in recent years.

None of the team’s impending free agents — including JaMychal Green and Anthony Lamb — are locks to return. Longtime veteran Andre Iguodala has already said he intends to retire.

Despite a disappointing season, I still think Golden State’s championship window is open as long as Curry keeps playing at his current level and Green is spearheading the defense. Curry is 35 now and has missed a lot of games over the past handful of seasons, which is troublesome. But he’s still capable of being the best player on the court in any game in which he appears, and the Warriors have shown tremendous resiliency over the past decade. It will be fascinating to see how their offseason unfolds.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Note: The cap hold for Mannion remains on the Warriors’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. The team can make him a restricted free agent again by extending another qualifying offer.

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall ($3,302,640)
  • Total: $3,302,640

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $1,303,360

Note: The Warriors could gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,000,000) if they keep their team salary below the second tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

June 4th, 2023 at 12:08pm CST by Luke Adams

After making a huge jump in the standings by going 41-31 in 2020/21, the Knicks brought back largely the same group in ’21/22, but regressed significantly, posting a 37-45 record.

Entering the 2022 offseason in search of a backcourt upgrade, the team was heavily rumored to be considering two big moves: clearing cap room to sign Jalen Brunson away from Dallas, and putting together a mega-package to trade to Utah for Donovan Mitchell.

Ultimately, only one of those two rumored plans came to fruition, with the Knicks sacrificing some draft equity in order to clear the necessary cap room to sign Brunson to a four-year, $104MM contract. Despite weeks of reports linking Mitchell to New York, the All-Star guard was eventually sent to Cleveland instead.

While we can’t say with certainty whether the Knicks’ decision not to meet the Jazz’s lofty asking price for Mitchell was the right call, we can confidently declare the signing of Brunson a success. Given the keys to the Knicks’ offense, Brunson had an incredible first season with his new team, setting new career highs in points (24.0) and assists (6.2) per game, as well as three-point percentage (41.6%).

Buoyed by Brunson’s performance, an All-NBA bounce-back season from forward Julius Randle, and strong contributions from their supporting cast, the Knicks enjoyed a big bounce-back year themselves, winning 47 games (their highest total in a decade) and making the second round of the playoffs.

This still isn’t a championship-caliber roster, but the foundation is more stable than it was two years ago following the Knicks’ previous playoff appearance. And after not going all-in for Mitchell, the club still has plenty of trade assets on hand to continue its search for another star.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan

All 15 of the players who finished the 2022/23 season with the Knicks are under contract – or at least have an option – for ’23/24, with none of them currently on track for unrestricted or restricted free agency. However, that doesn’t mean the front office can rest on its laurels this offseason.

For starters, Josh Hart is unlikely to exercise his $13MM player option, since he’ll have no problem matching – and likely exceeding – that salary on a new contract that covers multiple years. Turning down that option will make Hart an unrestricted free agent and there will be no shortage of teams with interest in the versatile wing.

As popular as Hart would be on the open market, reports have indicated there’s widespread pessimism among rival suitors about their ability to pry him away from New York. The Knicks gave up their first-round pick in February to acquire Hart, who immediately became a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau and seemed to love playing in the Big Apple alongside Brunson, his former college teammate.

Because Hart won’t be restricted, New York won’t technically control his free agency, but it would be a surprise if he doesn’t re-sign with the team, perhaps on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $15-18MM per season.

The Knicks hold team options on two guards, Derrick Rose ($15.6MM) and Miles McBride ($1.8MM). McBride is a good value on his minimum-salary deal and should have his option exercised, but Rose fell out of New York’s rotation last season and spent most of the season serving as a veteran mentor on the sidelines.

Unless there’s a scenario in which his salary is required in a trade for matching purposes, the Knicks will decline Rose’s option, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that he’ll be back with the team on a minimum-salary contract. Thibodeau and the Knicks clearly value the former MVP’s influence in the locker room and on the bench, having opted to keep him on the roster all season rather than buying him out after the trade deadline. There’s a path for the relationship to continue unless Rose wants to seek more playing time elsewhere.

DaQuan Jeffries and Isaiah Roby have non-guaranteed minimum salaries for 2023/24 and may not be back, especially if the Knicks need to open up their roster spots for newcomers.

New York doesn’t control any 2023 draft picks, but the team should have the cap flexibility necessary to use the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception to go shopping for another rotation piece in free agency.

Any significant roster changes for the Knicks, however, would likely occur on the trade market. Evan Fournier‘s pseudo-expiring $18.9MM contract (he has a 2024/25 team option that won’t be exercised) makes an ideal salary-matching starting point for any package, though no Knick – with the possible exception of Brunson – is likely to be off the table.

New York is also armed with young talent like Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin, and has an excess of future first-round picks, including protected 2024 selections from Dallas, Detroit, and Washington, as well as the Bucks’ 2025 first-rounder (top-four protected). The pieces are there to put together a pretty compelling package for any star player that becomes available this summer.

The real question is whether the stars who might be available in the short term are ones the Knicks would be eager to consolidate their assets for.

There has been constant trade speculation about Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, who was once viewed as ideal fit for New York. But Lillard will turn 33 this year, is on a massive super-max contract, and doesn’t make as much sense as a Knicks target now that Brunson is in the picture.

Karl-Anthony Towns‘ name has come up frequently as a possible option, but even if the Timberwolves were willing to move him, would Towns would be the right star for the Knicks? The 27-year-old big man has made a few All-Star teams and is a talented scorer, but he’s not a great defender and has won just four total playoff games (across three appearances) since arriving in Minnesota in 2016.

The Raptors could be willing to listen on Pascal Siakam this summer, but the Knicks already have an All-NBA power forward in Randle, whose substantial role has made it tricky to find playing time for Toppin, a former lottery pick. Siakam is a great player, but he’s probably not a big enough upgrade on Randle to really move the needle for the Knicks — and if the team were to acquire him without moving Randle, it’s unclear that the two power forwards could thrive alongside one another.

There are potential trade targets who are capable of being difference-makers for the Knicks. Joel Embiid would be one. Jaylen Brown might be another. But players like that seem unlikely to be available this offseason (and if we’re looking at those two stars specifically, it’s worth noting that it might be a challenge to negotiate a deal with a division rival).

You can count on Leon Rose and the front office to keep a close eye on the trade market this offseason to see if any impact players who fit the current roster will shake loose. But if the right players aren’t available, the prudent move for the Knicks would be continue to exercise patience, jumping on opportunities to keep adding quality players at a good price when they come along, like they did with Brunson and Hart.

That approach may not be popular among fans and league observers eager to see the Knicks make a splash, but going all-in on the wrong player who would be harder to come back from than waiting a little longer to see if better opportunities emerge.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • Josh Hart ($12,960,000): Bird rights
    • Note: If Hart picks up his player option, his salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 25.
  • Total: $12,960,000

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • DaQuan Jeffries ($2,066,585)
  • Isaiah Roby ($2,066,585)
  • Jericho Sims ($1,327,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Sims would receive another $600K in guaranteed money if he’s not waived on or before July 16 and would have his salary fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before August 16.
  • Total: $5,461,066

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
  • Josh Hart (veteran)
  • Derrick Rose (veteran)
  • Immanuel Quickley (rookie scale)
  • Obi Toppin (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hart would only be eligible if he picks up his player option; Rose would only be eligible if the Knicks pick up his option.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

  • None

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Knicks would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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Poll: What Should Rockets Do With No. 4 Pick?

June 4th, 2023 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets were technically one of the winners on lottery night last month, claiming one of the top four spots up for grabs in the 2023 NBA draft.

However, Houston entered that night second in the lottery standings and was among three teams with the best odds for the No. 1 pick, so the fact that the club will be picking fourth on June 22 qualifies as a bit of a disappointment — especially in a draft with a consensus top three prospects.

Still, while the Rockets likely won’t get an opportunity to draft Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, or Brandon Miller, that No. 4 pick has plenty of value, either as tool to add another promising young player to their core or as a prime trade chip.

The latest mock drafts at ESPN, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, and The Athletic all have the Rockets using the fourth overall pick to draft Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson. A hyper-athletic, ball-handling guard with size (6’7″) and the ability to create shots for teammates, Thompson is an intriguing prospect, though he remains raw as a defender, his shot needs some time to develop, and he wasn’t really tested against top-level competition in the OTE setting.

While Thompson is widely considered the best prospect available at No. 4 if Wembyanama, Henderson, and Miller are off the board, his twin brother Ausar Thompson will be in the mix for Houston too. Ausar is the fifth-best prospect on ESPN’s big board and Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report hears that both Thompsons are under “heavy consideration” at No. 4.

Kevin O’Connor wrote on Friday that he intends move Ausar ahead of Amen when his rankings at The Ringer are updated this week, arguing that Ausar has made more progress with his jump shot and has been the more effective defender of the two.

Of course, the Thompson twins aren’t the only players who will be on the Rockets’ radar at No. 4. Most recent mocks have Villanova wing Cam Whitmore coming off the board before Ausar, and local product Jarace Walker, a power forward who played for the Cougars, is considered a good bet to be drafted in the top half of the lottery.

What makes Houston’s choice all the more interesting is the fact that the club reportedly intends to push aggressively for a playoff spot in 2023/24, using its cap room to pursue veterans (including James Harden) who could help the team win right away. The Rockets don’t control their own 2024 first-round pick, so there’s little incentive for them to continue tanking (technically, the Rockets will keep their 2024 first-rounder if it’s in the top four, but even if they finish with the NBA’s worst record, there’s only about a 50/50 chance of that happening).

Houston could straddle the line between making a playoff push and continuing to build through the draft, using up to $60MM in cap room to sign or trade for veterans and still adding another young player to the core by using the No. 4 pick.

But if the franchise is serious about making a jump in the standings, that lottery pick would make an ideal trade chip in a deal for an impact player. They’d have to be realistic about the pick’s value – it likely wouldn’t bring back an All-Star caliber player unless it’s packaged with other strong assets – but it seems reasonable to assume it could be used to acquire a quality starter.

We want to know what direction you think the Rockets should go with that pick. Should they keep it or trade it? If they hang onto it, which prospect should they draft, assuming the consensus top three aren’t available? If they look to trade it, what kind of player can they realistically expect to land?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 2nd, 2023 at 3:56pm CST by Rory Maher

2022/23 was more or less the same old story for the Sixers. They had a strong regular season (54-28, the No. 3 seed in the East); Joel Embiid led the league in scoring for the second straight season en route to his first MVP award; and then he once again got injured in the first round of the playoffs, this time suffering a sprained LCL in his right knee.

Embiid only wound up missing two games with the injury thanks in part to a lengthy layoff between rounds, but he said it ordinarily would have kept him sidelined for four-to-six weeks as opposed to the two he actually missed. Still, former head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid “looked very close to normal” upon his return, with the big man later stating he “felt great.”

Even prior to the injury, Embiid was not playing up to his regular season standard, with his scoring, efficiency and assists all down while his turnovers went up. That continued in the team’s second-round ouster to the Celtics. Overall, he averaged 23.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.7 APG (3.9 TOV) and 2.8 BPG on .431/.179/.905 shooting in nine playoff games (37.3 MPG), compared to 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG (3.4 TOV), 1.0 SPG and 1.7 BPG on .548/.330/.857 shooting in 66 regular season contests (34.6 MPG).

Since 2017/18, the Sixers have the second-best regular season record in the league, going 300-173 over that six-year span for a .634 winning percentage (an average of 52 wins over an 82-game season). They made it to the playoffs each time, but have yet to advance past the second round. All of the other teams in the top five in regular season wins over the past six seasons — Milwaukee, Boston, Denver and Toronto — have at least advanced to the NBA Finals.

The goal going forward is pretty straightforward, yet anything but easy: Capitalize on Embiid’s remaining prime years and win the title. The Sixers enter the offseason with some big question marks, so it will be interesting to see how the next couple months play out.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Philadelphia already made a significant change this offseason, firing Rivers and replacing him with Nick Nurse, a former Atlantic Division rival with the Raptors. Nurse developed a reputation as a creative coach who was unafraid to experiment with a wide variety of strategies.

Forward Danuel House just exercised his $4.3MM player option for ’23/24, which was expected after his modest role this past season. His contract isn’t onerous by any means, and maybe Nurse will be able to get more out of him than Rivers did.

My expectation is that Montrezl Harrell will pick up his own $2.76MM player option and the Sixers will guarantee the $6.5MM non-guaranteed portion of De’Anthony Melton‘s team-friendly salary (he will make a total of $8MM). I also expect them to issue Paul Reed a $2.26MM qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent — the young big man has expressed a desire to remain with Philadelphia.

Those moves would give the Sixers nine players with guaranteed deals for a temporary cap charge of $126.5MM (it could go up or down depending on if they give Reed a raise or let him walk).

Of course, the biggest unknown surrounding the Sixers’ offseason is the status of James Harden, who reportedly plans to decline his $35.64MM player option in search of a long-term contract. As with Embiid, Harden’s playoff run was once again inconsistent. He carried Philadelphia with a couple of huge performances in victories against Boston (he was solid in the third win), but struggling mightily in the four losses, including Games 6 and 7.

If Harden declines the option, the Sixers will be left with a $46.9MM cap hold and will have his Bird rights, giving them the ability to go over the cap to re-sign him while offering more money than a rival team can. However, it remains to be seen if Philadelphia is actually willing to give him a huge contract.

Harden, who will turn 34 over the summer, has been repeatedly linked to his former club in Houston over the past several months, with several reporters suggesting it may be a leverage ploy in contract negotiations with Philadelphia. We’ll see what happens.

Harden is clearly past his MVP peak, but he still had a strong year, averaging 20-plus points per game for the 11th straight season while leading the league in assists (10.7) and posting a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio. Is he really worth a max (or close to it) contract at this stage? For one year, sure. A long-term deal, probably not.

The problem is, if Harden walks, the Sixers have no way to replace his ball-handling or play-making abilities. Tyrese Maxey, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be seeking a very lucrative deal of his own, is a terrific scorer, but making plays for others isn’t his forte at the moment.

Re-signing Harden to anything close to a max would push the Sixers into the luxury tax in ’23/24 and they still have several other free agents, including Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels and Shake Milton. What happens with Harden could have a direct impact on what the team decides to do with its remaining free agents. Either way, Philadelphia will likely try to avoid the punitive second tax apron, which kicks in at $17.5MM above the luxury tax line.

As far as trade chips, Tobias Harris is entering the final year of his $39.3MM contract, which will make him a bit more appealing than he had been in previous seasons. He’s a solid player who willingly adjusted his game after Harden arrived in Philadelphia, and the Sixers won’t want to just dump his salary, especially if Harden walks — they’ll need to make up for his lost production somehow.

I’m sure the Sixers would be happy to shed Furkan Korkmaz‘s $5.37MM expiring contract, and he’s worth keeping an eye on as a salary-matching piece. He requested a trade in February prior to the deadline, but they couldn’t find a suitable deal.

If the 76ers want to make a major win-now move, any offer would likely have to start with Maxey and Harris. I’m not sure how palatable that would be to the front office, but Maxey is the best asset the Sixers have aside from Embiid, and I don’t see the big man going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe that could change if they fail to advance past the second round again next season, but I’d be shocked if he asks out this summer.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • De’Anthony Melton ($6,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Melton’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 3.
  • Total: $6,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • Paul Reed ($2,261,266 qualifying offer / $2,261,266 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $2,261,266

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Tobias Harris (veteran)
  • Furkan Korkmaz (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
  • De’Anthony Melton (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran)
  • Paul Reed (veteran)
  • Tyrese Maxey (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. McDaniels, Milton, and Reed are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Trade exception: $2,448,846

Note: The Sixers would lose access to the full mid-level exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Sixers go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 1st, 2023 at 7:58pm CST by Rory Maher

The Suns won between 19 and 24 games in the four seasons prior to hiring Monty Williams as head coach in 2019. They had missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons.

After going 26-39 to start the 2019/20 season, the Suns reeled off eight straight victories in the Orlando bubble, a positive sign of things to come. Instead of running back the same group, they decided to shake up the roster, trading for future Hall of Famer Chris Paul, a move that paid immediate dividends.

Phoenix had a remarkable turnaround in ’20/21, snapping its 10-year playoff drought by going 51-21 and making a surprise run to the NBA Finals, ultimately losing in six games to the Bucks. In ’21/22, the Suns held the NBA’s top record at 64-18, but had a meltdown in their second-round loss to Dallas, getting blown out at home in Game 7.

The Suns contemplated dealing for Kevin Durant last summer following that playoff ouster, but decided to stand pat, matching a maximum-salary offer sheet for former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. But Paul, who is now 38, got injured shortly after the ’22/23 season started and his play declined. Forward Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus as well. They seemed quite far away from making it back to the Finals again, sitting with a 30-26 record entering the trade deadline.

New owner Mat Ishbia pushed hard to go all-in for Durant once the superstar forward reissued his trade request in February. One report said president of basketball operations James Jones was reluctant to include Mikal Bridges in the deal, but ultimately relented.

Durant, 34, injured his ankle shortly after the move to Phoenix and the club didn’t have much time to integrate him into the lineup before the playoffs. Injuries to Ayton and Paul played a factor in another second-round exit, this time at the hands of the Nuggets, who were clearly the better team when Devin Booker wasn’t completely unstoppable.

The second consecutive playoff elimination blowout at home led to the Suns firing Williams, who had just won Coach of the Year in 2022. The Suns will also reportedly be exploring the trade markets for Ayton and Paul this summer in an effort to bring their first NBA championship trophy to Phoenix.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach is the first order of business, and three finalists reportedly remain: former Sixers coach Doc Rivers, former Lakers coach Frank Vogel, and Suns assistant Kevin Young, who is said to have the backing of several players, including Booker.

Trading away Bridges, Johnson, Jae Crowder (who sat out the season until he was dealt), four unprotected first-round picks and a 2028 pick swap for Durant means the Suns don’t have a ton of moveable assets. It will be difficult to improve the roster around Booker and Durant.

I have a difficult time envisioning a robust market for Ayton. When engaged, he’s a very talented player with soft touch around the rim who is a plus rebounder and defender. The problem is the caveat — when engaged. Far too often Ayton looked downright disinterested over the past couple seasons, even in the biggest moments. His lack of effort during the playoffs was glaring.

Maybe certain teams would view him as a bounce-back candidate, but even when he’s at his best, I’m not sure he’s worth a max contract. Despite an impressive physical profile, the 24-year-old has always been much more finesse than brawn on offense, rarely drawing fouls or effectively posting up smaller players like you’d expect.

While Ayton might hold some appeal, I have an even harder time seeing which team would be interested in paying Paul $30.8MM next season. The Suns don’t have any tradable first-round picks to dump his salary, either.

If they fully guarantee the salaries of Paul and Cameron Payne, the Suns will be over the projected $162MM luxury tax line with only six players under contract (Durant, Booker, Ayton and Landry Shamet are the others, for a total of $163.7MM).

I would be a little surprised if Phoenix didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Jock Landale in order to make him a restricted free agent. The QO is close to the minimum ($2.2MM), and his grit and toughness were on display in the playoffs against the Nuggets. The Australian center has spoken about wanting to stay with the Suns long term.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume Landale simply accepts his QO and he doesn’t get a raise or sign a long-term deal. That would leave the Suns with seven players under contract at $165.9MM. The entire rest of the roster is in flux, as they have eight potential free agents (nine including two-way guard Saben Lee).

The odds are extremely slim that the Suns will issue Darius Bazley a $6.2MM QO after he rarely played following a trade deadline salary dump. They could potentially try to bring him back on a minimum deal, but he’d become an unrestricted free agent and able to join any interested team in that scenario.

I don’t have a great sense of what the team might do with Ish Wainright‘s minimum-salary team option, and having Non-Bird rights on Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross and T.J. Warren limits what the Suns can offer any of those veterans, assuming there’s mutual interest in a reunion. I don’t expect Bismack Biyombo to get more than another minimum deal, whether it be from Phoenix or a different club.

The one player the Suns can pay and probably want to bring back is forward Torrey Craig, who had a solid season filling in as a starter for much of the season due to injuries. He averaged 7.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG and shot 39.5% from three while playing solid defense in 79 games (60 starts, 24.7 MPG). The 32-year-old made $5.1MM in the final year of his contract and I think he could get at least that much again on the open market.

Let’s say the Suns re-sign Craig to a three-year, $18MM deal, with a $6MM salary each season. That would put their payroll for ’23/24 at $171.9MM with eight players under contract. If they fill out the remainder of the standard roster (14 players instead of 15) with minimum-salary deals at a value of $2MM each, their team salary would be $183.9MM.

Starting July 1, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will take effect, and with it the introduction of a second tax apron. In the above scenario, the Suns would be nearly $22MM over the tax line; the second apron is at $17.5MM. It is very restrictive, though it isn’t clear how many of the changes would occur immediately, as some will reportedly be phased in over a few seasons.

They could dip under the second apron by salary-dumping Landry Shamet, who is owed $33MM over the next three seasons. That wouldn’t make them better in the short term though, and the goal is to win right now while Durant is still playing at a very high level and Booker is in his prime.

There is a highly unlikely — but not impossible — scenario in which the Suns trade Ayton to a team with cap room, shed Paul’s salary (maybe with a pick swap or two and some second-rounders?), and operate as a cap room team themselves. If they renounced all their free agent cap holds except Landale, they could have about $27MM to spend on external free agents.

That seems like a pretty drastic move given the team’s desire to contend, but it could still technically be an option if the Suns are set on avoiding the tax while trying to sign someone like Fred VanVleet without having to worry about a sign-and-trade, which is the only way they could acquire him presently. I’m also not even sure $27MM is enough to sign VanVleet — I wouldn’t be shocked if he got $30-35MM annually.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Chris Paul ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Paul’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Cameron Payne ($4,500,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Payne’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Total: $19,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 52 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Paul (veteran)
  • Cameron Payne (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Payton and Lundberg remain on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,975,371

Note: The Suns may not have access to any form of mid-level exception next season if certain new rules related to the second tax apron go into effect immediately and their team salary is above that second apron. The Suns would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below both tax aprons.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win 2023 NBA Finals?

June 1st, 2023 at 9:38am CST by Luke Adams

The 2023 NBA Finals, which tip off on Thursday night, will pit the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference against the No. 8 seed in the East, but the matchup may not be as lopsided as their places in the standings suggest.

Despite finishing the regular season as the West’s top team, the Nuggets weren’t considered a powerhouse entering the playoffs. They lost 10 of 17 games down the stretch in March and April and had only the sixth-best net rating in the NBA (+3.3) during the season. They also didn’t have a recent history of deep playoff runs, coming off a first-round elimination in 2022 and having made it beyond the second round just once in the Nikola Jokic era.

Denver has been the most dominant team of the postseason though, winning 12 of 15 games and posting a playoff-best +8.0 net rating during a run that saw them eliminate stars like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Edwards.

The Heat, meanwhile, battled injuries and inconsistency all season long, winning just 44 games and losing their first play-in game (to Atlanta) before completing a comeback victory over Chicago to claim the East’s final postseason berth. An early playoff exit appeared likely at that point, especially after sharpshooter Tyler Herro broke his hand in Game 1 of round one.

Instead, the Heat knocked off the title-favorite Bucks in five games, dispatched the Knicks in six games, and held off the No. 2 Celtics in a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, whose +4.6 postseason net rating is second among all playoff clubs, has looked more like the team that came within one basket of making the NBA Finals in 2022 than the one that endured an up-and-down regular season.

The Heat may be a No. 8 seed – only the second in NBA history to make the Finals – but this is a battle-tested group that has significantly outperformed its regular season record and has plenty of playoff experience.

The Nuggets, who haven’t lost in Denver during the postseason and have looked like the NBA’s best team since the regular season ended, will have home-court advantage and enter the Finals as major favorites — BetOnline.ag has their odds to win the series at -405, with Miami listed as a +325 underdog.

Denver is also the popular pick among experts. John Hollinger of The Athletic laid out his reasoning for taking the Nuggets in six games, while a scout, a coach, and an executive who spoke anonymously to Sam Amick, Darnell Mayberry, and Josh Robbins of The Athletic all picked Denver in six too.

Over at ESPN, the Heat got a little more support, but 12 of 16 NBA reporters and analysts still chose the Nuggets to win the series, with only four – Bobby Marks, Israel Gutierrez, Nick DePaula, and Jorge Sedano – taking Miami.

The fact that the Nuggets are widely expected to come out on top will mean little to the Heat, who were considered even longer shots to beat Milwaukee or Boston. The Bucks were a -1200 betting favorite over Miami at the start of their series, while the Celtics were at -550.

With Game 1 set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want to get your predictions for this year’s NBA Finals. Will the Heat complete their improbable run and become the first No. 8 seed in league history to win a championship, or will Jokic lead the Nuggets to their first ever title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

May 31st, 2023 at 3:51pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies were an ascendant team entering the 2022/23 season, having steadily increased their winning percentage from .268 to .683 over the course of the previous five years. Coming off a 56-win showing and their first playoff series win since 2015, the young club was looking to avoid regression and take another step toward title contention.

Memphis did win 51 games in ’22/23, the second-highest total in the Western Conference, but you might be hard-pressed to find many NBA observers willing to call the team’s season a success.

Franchise player Ja Morant, who signed a five-year, maximum-salary extension last summer, began to make more headlines for his troubling behavior off the court than his highlight-reel plays on it, culminating in an eight-game suspension after he flashed a gun at a Colorado strip club during an Instagram Live stream.

Dillon Brooks, whose fiery playing style and penchant for talking trash had come to epitomize the brash attitude of the young Grizzlies, earned a spot on the All-Defensive Second Team. However, his offensive game declined; he earned multiple suspensions for technical and flagrant fouls; and he chose the wrong moments to needle opposing players.

The Grizzlies were quickly eliminated from the playoffs in the first round by the seventh-seeded Lakers, with LeBron James responding to Brooks’ barbs after a Game 2 Memphis win by leading L.A. to three wins in the next four games, including a 40-point trouncing in a decisive Game 6.

Since the Grizzlies’ season ended, Morant has been indefinitely suspended again following another problematic Instagram Live video, while one report indicated that Brooks won’t be re-signed “under any circumstances.” In Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., the franchise still has a pair of core players untouched by controversy, but Morant’s off-court actions and Brooks’ impending departure create significant uncertainty for the team heading into an important summer.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan

With 13 players on guaranteed contracts for 2023/24, the Grizzlies likely won’t be looking to overhaul their roster or make major changes to their core. But roster tweaks are coming, and Memphis will have work to do with a pair of its cornerstone players – Bane and Morant – this summer.

Let’s start with Bane, who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension beginning on July 1, the week after he turns 25. Bane has made 42.5% of his three-pointers since entering the NBA and has continued to improve as an all-around scorer and distributor, averaging a career-best 21.5 PPG and 4.4 APG this past season. He’s not an elite defender, but he’s no slouch on that end of the floor either, having taken on challenging perimeter assignments when Brooks missed games.

After players like Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole signed rookie scale extensions worth at least $30MM annually last offseason, it’s safe to assume Bane will at least match – and almost certainly exceed – their deals. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Grizzlies put a maximum-salary offer on the table. Memphis isn’t a traditional free agent destination, so the team has to take care of the players it spends years developing, and there’s probably no need to nickel-and-dime one of the club’s rising stars when there are so many question marks surrounding another one.

While the Grizzlies’ offseason business with Bane is standard basketball fare, their approach with Morant will be trickier to map out. As disappointed as the team must be to watch the former No. 2 overall pick make bad decisions off the court, he’s under contract for the next five seasons and remains a major part of Memphis’ future.

The franchise has to hope that the series of incidents within the last year will serve as a wake-up call for the All-Star guard and offer him all the tools and guidance he may need to keep on the straight and narrow. Morant hasn’t faced any criminal charges, so if he avoids trouble going forward, there’s no reason he can’t put the last year behind him and enjoy a long, successful NBA career.

Even with so many players locked in for next season and optimism that the trio of Morant, Bane, and Jackson can continue to get better, the Grizzlies will need to address certain areas of the roster, starting with the hole in the rotation that Brooks’ imminent departure will create.

Brooks’ questionable shot selection and inability to consistently make those shots hurt Memphis’ offense, but he’s a strong, physical defender whose willingness to match up with an opponent’s top perimeter scorer each and every night took the pressure off players like Morant and Bane. It’s virtually impossible to find someone on the free agent market who can play that kind of defense and be a positive on offense for $12.2MM, which is the projected value of the Grizzlies’ mid-level exception (Brooks made $11.4MM last season).

In recent years, the Grizzlies have put their faith in the front office’s ability to draft and develop young players, letting non-core veterans walk in free agency or trading them once they get a bit too expensive for the team’s liking. It will be interesting to see if the team adjusts that philosophy at all this summer after losing Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton a year ago.

If they’re willing to more actively pursue veteran help, the Grizzlies are in position to head to the trade market to seek out an upgrade on Brooks. Armed with all of their own future first-round draft picks, the Warriors’ 2024 first-rounder, and a collection of inexpensive young players, Memphis has the assets to make a play for a higher-end wing such as OG Anunoby.

It actually sounds like the Grizzlies actually attempted that sort of move at the trade deadline, with one report indicating they offered four first-round picks for Mikal Bridges. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough in February and the price for Bridges – if the Nets are even willing to listen – has likely only increased since then.

Still, Brooklyn would be a team worth calling, since a wing like Dorian Finney-Smith or Royce O’Neale could slot nicely into that Brooks’ starting spot. A sign-and-trade for Cameron Johnson would also be worth exploring, though Memphis would likely need to pay a significant price (in terms of both salary and trade assets) to pry him away from the Nets.

The Grizzlies have done a great job in the last five years building a lottery team into a legitimate contender, and if not for the Morant controversy and injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke this spring, perhaps they would have made a deeper postseason run. But with Brooks departing, Clarke likely to miss most or all of next season due to a torn Achilles, and Morant potentially facing another suspension to start 2023/24, the team will need to find ways to continue fortifying its roster if it wants to take another step toward a championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 25 overall ($2,585,040)
  • No. 45 overall (no cap hold)
  • No. 56 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,585,040

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Dillon Brooks (veteran)
  • Luke Kennard (veteran)
  • Xavier Tillman (veteran)
  • Desmond Bane (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Brooks is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap hold for Pons remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
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