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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 23rd, 2024 at 7:30pm CST by Luke Adams

A year ago at this time, the Timberwolves‘ 2022 trade for Rudy Gobert was widely viewed as an unmitigated disaster and a cautionary tale for teams who were considering the idea of selling the farm for a single player.

That blockbuster deal cost Minnesota three solid rotation pieces (Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, and Jarred Vanderbilt), a young center who had a terrific rookie season with his new team in 2022/23 (Walker Kessler), the 2023 draft pick that became Keyonte George, and four more future draft assets, including two unprotected first-round picks, a top-five protected first-rounder, and an unprotected first-round swap.

In their first season with Gobert, the Timberwolves took a step back, winning just 42 games after posting a 46-36 record in 2021/22, and the three-time Defensive Player of the Year struggled to adapt to his new situation. When the 2023 offseason got underway, there were myriad calls from pundits and fans for Minnesota to break up its frontcourt by trading either Gobert or (more likely) Karl-Anthony Towns.

What a difference a year makes.

Instead of dismantling their core, the Wolves chose to stand relatively pat last summer, betting they’d be just fine with better health from Towns, more acclimation time for Gobert, another year of growth for rising star Anthony Edwards, and the stabilizing influence of 2023 deadline addition Mike Conley. They were right.

The Wolves’ 56-26 record was just one game off the top mark in the Western Conference, and Gobert looked far more comfortable in his second year in Minnesota, as he anchored a unit that posted the NBA’s best defensive rating (108.4) and won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award.

After passing their regular season test with flying colors, the Wolves entered the playoffs looking for their first postseason series victory since 2004. Not only did they get it, but they made it look easy, sweeping Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Suns out of round one. For good measure, Minnesota followed up that dominant first-round showing by knocking off the defending champions in round two, eliminating the division-rival Nuggets in a hard-fought seven-game series.

A dream season to that point ended on a sour note, however. Despite entering the Western Conference finals as the higher seed and a heavy favorite against Dallas, Minnesota had no answer for the firepower of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, dropping three games at home to the Mavericks en route to a 4-1 series loss.

While it was a disappointing finish, the season was a major success overall for the Wolves, as Edwards’ ascension to stardom and their dominant defensive play provided reason to believe that more lengthy postseason runs are possible in the coming years. The challenge now will be keeping the core intact as the cost of the roster gets higher and billionaires battle over control of the franchise.

Edwards, Towns, and All-Defensive wing Jaden McDaniels will all get huge raises this summer, pushing team salary over the second tax apron, while longtime owner Glen Taylor and the new prospective ownership group led by Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez head to arbitration in an effort to determine who will ultimately be the club’s majority stakeholder.

This is a roster capable of contending for a title and worth paying a hefty luxury tax bill. But operating over the second apron will restrict the front office’s ability to make additional moves, and not knowing who will be on the hook for those tax bills raises concerns about the sustainability of such a high payroll.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan

Let’s start with the cap situation. Towns, Gobert, and Edwards are now all on maximum-salary contracts that will be worth between $42-50MM in 2024/25, so that trio alone will take up nearly the entire $141MM cap. Throw in McDaniels at $23MM, Naz Reid at $14MM, Conley at $10MM, and this roster gets expensive in a real hurry.

The second apron is projected to be $189.5MM; Minnesota’s nine players on guaranteed contracts are owed a combined $191MM, and that doesn’t account for the cap hit for the team’s first-round pick ($2.55MM) or new contracts for free agents like Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, and Jordan McLaughlin. If no cost-cutting moves are made, team salary will likely end up north of $200MM, with a luxury tax penalty of at least $75MM, and those are relatively conservative estimates.

There are some teams who wouldn’t bat an eye at those figures, especially for a roster capable of vying for a title. The Clippers reportedly paid $142MM+ in taxes this season for a team that didn’t make the second round of the playoffs; the Warriors were on the hook for $177MM in tax penalties for a club that didn’t even make the playoffs.

But the Wolves under Taylor have never been eager to surpass the luxury tax line, having not paid a tax bill larger than $1MM in two decades. And it’s unclear if Lore and Rodriguez would be big spenders either, given that they’ve repeatedly had to raise capital during the process of buying into the franchise and had reportedly projected a payroll decrease for 2024/25 (though that’s said to be a common practice that doesn’t preclude subsequent revisions).

Towns would be the player to watch if the Wolves decide they need to clean up their cap situation. He’s one of the best frontcourt shooters in NBA history, but he has become a second option on offense due to Edwards’ emergence, and he isn’t a valuable asset on defense — playing him next to Gobert is a challenge in certain matchups, since neither big man is at his best when he’s chasing forwards or wings out on the perimeter.

Towns’ $49.35MM cap hit in 2024/25 will also be the highest for any Minnesota player, and the team has a bench player capable of replacing him in the starting five if necessary — Reid isn’t KAT, but the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year is coming off his best season and is making a fraction of Towns’ salary.

Still, all the reasons that make Towns the most likely odd man out among the team’s highest-paid players would work against the Wolves if they placed him on the trade block. His four-year, maximum-salary contract will be onerous and impractical for many clubs to carry under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and any trade partner would need to be in position to surround him with the right personnel. Plus, the Wolves won’t just be looking to dump Towns’ salary — they’d want to get back quality rotation players who come in at a much lower price point. It’ll be a challenge.

My bet is the Wolves won’t do anything too drastic this summer. We saw a year ago that Tim Connelly and his front office are willing to be patient to give a talented roster time to jell, and for most of the season, the current group worked just fine together. As for ownership, that standoff seems unlikely to be resolved within the next few weeks, and as long as Taylor maintains majority control, I doubt he’ll want to take the PR flack that would ensue if he slashed salary after the team’s best season in 20 years.

If no big moves are in the cards, it could be a pretty quiet summer in Minnesota, with the priority being to build depth beyond a top seven of Edwards, Towns, Gobert, McDaniels, Conley, Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. As a second-apron team, the Wolves won’t have any form of mid-level or bi-annual exception available and won’t be able to aggregate salaries in trades, limiting their options.

Wendell Moore, Leonard Miller, and Josh Minott have contracts for next season (Minott’s salary is non-guaranteed), and I’d expect Miller and Minott to be back, since their cap hits will come in below the two-year veteran’s minimum. But Moore is slightly pricier and has barely played in his first two seasons, so he’s a trade candidate unless the Wolves remain bullish on his upside.

If two of those three youngsters return, that would leave at least five open roster spots for Minnesota to fill. I imagine the team would welcome back Anderson, Morris, and/or McLaughlin if they’re willing to accept minimum-salary deals, but Anderson and Morris, at least, should have stronger offers — McLaughlin might too. The Wolves have the Bird rights necessary to make any of those players competitive offers, but it would cost exponentially more than just the player’s salary, given how far into the tax the club will be.

Minnesota also controls the 27th and 37th picks in this year’s draft, putting the team in position to add a couple more low-cost prospects to the roster. But if Anderson and Morris depart, the front office will likely head to the free agent market on the lookout for at least a couple veterans capable of playing rotation minutes, especially in the backcourt and on the wing. Kyle Lowry, Cameron Payne, Alec Burks, Lonnie Walker, and Justin Holiday are some of the free agents who might be available for the minimum and who could be fits on the Wolves’ roster.

Gobert is the only notable extension candidate to monitor this offseason, as he’ll be eligible to reach free agency as early as next summer if he declines a 2025/26 player option. He’ll remain extension-eligible even after the regular season begins though, so the Wolves shouldn’t feel urgency to get anything done by opening night.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Karl-Anthony Towns ($49,350,000)
- Towns’ cap hit is a tentative figure based on 35% of a projected $141MM cap.
Rudy Gobert ($43,827,586)
Anthony Edwards ($42,300,000)
- Edwards’ cap hit is a tentative figure based on 30% of a projected $141MM cap.
Jaden McDaniels ($23,017,242)
- McDaniels’ cap hit includes a $22,586,207 base salary and $431,035 in likely incentives.
Naz Reid ($13,986,432)
Mike Conley ($9,975,962)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,312,500)
Wendell Moore ($2,537,040)
Leonard Miller ($1,891,857)
Total: $191,198,619

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Josh Minott ($2,019,699)
- Minott’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
Jaylen Clark (two-way)
Total: $2,019,699

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Luka Garza ($2,368,944 qualifying offer / $2,368,944 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $2,368,944

Two-Way Free Agents

Daishen Nix: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

No. 27 overall pick ($2,554,200 cap hold)
No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $2,554,200

Extension-Eligible Players

Rudy Gobert (veteran)
Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Josh Minott (veteran)
Monte Morris (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Monte Morris ($18,621,759 cap hold): Bird rights
Kyle Anderson ($11,985,366 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Jordan McLaughlin ($4,598,000 cap hold): Bird rights
T.J. Warren ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $37,298,762

Other Cap Holds

Evan Turner ($27,909,834 cap hold)
Aaron Brooks ($2,019,706 cap hold)
Greg Monroe ($2,019,706 cap hold)
Austin Rivers ($2,019,706 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $33,968,952

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Timberwolves project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or their trade exception worth $4MM. If they move below the second apron, they would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate below both aprons, they could access the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,859,000), the bi-annual exception ($4,681,0001), and their trade exception.

None

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

June 22nd, 2024 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

While their regular season success was overlooked to some extent due to more significant jumps in the standings in 2023/24 by Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Orlando, you could make a case that no NBA team exceeded preseason expectations from start to finish by a greater margin than the Pacers.

After winning 25 games in 2021/22 and 35 in ’22/23, Indiana was projected to take another modest step forward in ’23/24 — oddsmakers had their over/under set at 38.5 wins. However, propelled by a high-flying offense led by star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers didn’t spend a single day below .500 all season, finishing the year with a 47-35 record and a top-six playoff spot in the East. They knocked off the No. 3 Bucks and No. 2 Knicks in the postseason before falling to the eventual champion Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.

Indiana likely wouldn’t have been one of the last four teams standing if not for some injury luck in the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, Mitchell Robinson, and Bojan Bogdanovic were some of the opposing players who missed most or all of their playoff series vs. Indiana.

Still, the Pacers beat the teams in front of them in the first two rounds, then played the Celtics about as competitively as a team on the losing end of a sweep can, dropping one game in overtime and two more (without Haliburton) by a single basket. They likely won’t enter the 2024/25 season as a favorite to return to the Eastern finals, but this is a good team that doesn’t appear to have reached its ceiling yet.

To continue getting better, the Pacers may have to rely mostly on internal improvement and tweaks around the margins. Haliburton’s All-NBA season means his maximum-salary rookie scale extension will begin at 30% of the 2024/25 cap (instead of 25%) and the club has already committed to a similar max deal for free agent forward Pascal Siakam. Those two contracts will occupy a substantial chunk of Indiana’s cap room for the next few years, and the club gave up a handful of first-round picks in order to acquire Siakam from Toronto in the first place.

That doesn’t mean the Pacers have no paths to making upgrades though — two of the three first-rounders they gave up for Siakam were 2024 picks, so they still have future draft assets available to offer up in trade talks. And even with max deals for Haliburton and Siakam set to hit the books, the team isn’t quite up against the luxury tax line yet. There’s room to maneuver here, even as the ongoing development of young players like Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Jarace Walker, and Ben Sheppard offers hope of growth from within.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan

As noted above, the Pacers have already taken care of the No. 1 item on their summer to-do list. They became the first team to take advantage of the NBA’s new rules allowing clubs to negotiate with their own free agents beginning one day after the end of the NBA Finals, quickly coming to terms on a reported four-year, maximum-salary deal with Siakam.

There are a couple caveats to keep in mind here. First, that deal can’t be officially signed until July 6, so it’s technically possible for it to fall apart before then, but that’s extremely unlikely. Siakam has seemed to genuinely enjoy his time with his new team, and the Pacers acquired him knowing they would probably have to go up to the max to retain him beyond 2023/24. He did nothing during his half-season in Indiana to dissuade them from making that offer, leading the team in scoring and rebounding in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Second, while Siakam’s new deal has been reported as a four-year max, we won’t know all the specific details of that deal until it’s official. Are all four seasons fully guaranteed? Are the base salaries technically slightly below the max, with incentives available to max it out? Is there an option on year four?

The answers to these questions will go a long way toward determining just how much risk the contract carries in the back half (Siakam will be 34 when it expires), but regardless, it’s a deal the Pacers had to make. Indiana isn’t a free agent destination, so when the team finds itself in a position to lock up a two-time All-NBA forward for the foreseeable future, it has to take advantage of that opportunity.

With Siakam taken care of, the Pacers have just about all of their rotation players under contract for 2024/25, but there are a couple exceptions. Reserve forward Obi Toppin is eligible for restricted free agency this summer, while backup big man Jalen Smith holds a $5.4MM player option that he may decline. Of the players who finished the season on the roster, Toppin and Smith ranked seventh and ninth, respectively, in minutes per game.

Accounting for Siakam’s new contract and T.J. McConnell‘s full salary (it’s partially guaranteed for now), the Pacers are already on the hook for about $149.4MM for 10 players, which doesn’t include new contracts for either Toppin or Smith. I imagine ownership would prefer to stay below the projected luxury tax line of $171.3MM if possible — that means it could be a tight fit to retain both Toppin and Smith and then fill out the rest of the roster.

On the surface, Toppin looks like the logical keeper if the Pacers have to decide between the two. The former lottery pick thrived in the team’s up-tempo offense, settling into a role off the bench as an efficient scorer and rebounder (and even a shooter — his .403 3PT% was a career high). He was a key part of the postseason rotation, while Smith was barely used in the playoffs.

But the equation won’t necessarily be that simple. While Toppin’s qualifying offer is worth about $7.7MM, there may be a team willing to give him a deal that starts in the neighborhood of the full mid-level ($12.9MM) or even a little higher than that — matching such an offer could force the Pacers to go over the tax line. Plus, if Smith ultimately gets a sense that he’s better off picking up his player option than testing the open market, he can lock in his $5.4MM cap hit without the club having any real agency in the decision, which would make it trickier to re-sign Toppin and stay out of the tax.

Of course, it’s worth stressing that there are no rules preventing the Pacers from signing both players to new contracts. Maybe ownership will be comfortable paying a small tax bill for a roster coming off an Eastern Conference finals appearance. If Toppin’s price comes in lower than expected, perhaps they could even squeeze both players and two or three more in below the tax line. A trade that reduces salary elsewhere on the roster would also be an option.

One additional factor that should help the Pacers navigate the tax line and the aprons? The team holds three 2024 second-round picks, at Nos. 36, 49, and 50. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Indiana to use all three picks on players who will immediately sign standard contracts, but adding one or two of them to the 15-man roster would make sense financially — a minimum-salary free agent would count for about $2.09MM for cap and tax purposes, whereas a second-round pick will likely count for just $1.16MM.

Gaining that bit of extra financial wiggle room with a couple roster spots could end up coming in handy, and Indiana’s scouting department showed with its Sheppard pick at No. 26 in last year’s draft that it can find players further down the draft board who are capable of contributing right away (during the playoffs, Sheppard averaged 19.7 MPG and started two games).

The Pacers will also have contract extension decisions to make in 2024/25 for a pair of players who look more valuable than ever coming off the team’s extended playoff run.

Myles Turner was considered a trade candidate for years and appeared to be on the outs in Indiana back in 2022 when the club signed Deandre Ayton to a maximum-salary offer sheet, while McConnell began the 2023/24 season out of the rotation. But both players were huge parts of the Pacers’ success in ’23/24, with Turner averaging 17.0 points per game on .517/.453/.760 shooting in 17 playoff starts, while McConnell averaged 11.8 PPG and 5.1 APG off the bench in those 17 games.

Turner won’t become extension-eligible until midway through the season, but McConnell could be signed to a new deal beginning in July.

It will be interesting to see what the price point is for Turner, who has never been viewed as a star but is that rare form of center who can both capably protect the rim and hit three-pointers. He’ll earn $19.9MM in the final year of his current contract in 2024/25 and it’s safe to assume he’ll be seeking a raise on his next deal. I expect his camp to keep a close eye on what Nic Claxton gets in free agency — if Claxton signs for upwards of $25MM per year, Turner’s reps could make a case for an even larger payday for their client by arguing that he makes a similar impact to Claxton on defense and is more versatile offensively.

McConnell, 32, is four years older than Turner, plays a lesser role, and will make $9.3MM in ’24/25. His next deal won’t be as lucrative as his teammate’s, but there’s no reason to count on him taking a pay cut. The pesky 6’1″ guard is coming off perhaps the best two-year stretch of his career, having averaged 9.4 PPG, 5.4 APG, and 2.9 RPG on .550/.427/.823 shooting since the start of the 2022/23 season. He’s a Rick Carlisle favorite and has shown how useful he can be on a winning team.

If the Pacers aren’t comfortable with how the initial extension negotiations go with McConnell, they can afford to be patient. He’ll be extension-eligible for the entire 2024/25 league year, up until June 30, so there’s plenty of time to get something done. The window for Turner is a little smaller, since he won’t become extension-eligible until January 30.

It’s worth noting that Indiana traded Buddy Hield in a contract year a few months ago when it became clear that he and the club weren’t going to agree to terms on an extension. I don’t think the Pacers will want to move Turner or McConnell, but it’s a possibility worth monitoring if one or both players don’t have a deal in place before February’s trade deadline.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Tyrese Haliburton ($42,300,000)
- Haliburton’s cap hit is a tentative figure based on 30% of a projected $141MM cap.
Myles Turner ($19,928,500)
Aaron Nesmith ($11,000,000)
Bennedict Mathurin ($7,245,720)
Jarace Walker ($6,362,520)
T.J. McConnell ($5,000,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Isaiah Jackson ($4,435,381)
Ben Sheppard ($2,663,880)
Andrew Nembhard ($2,019,699)
Total: $100,955,700

Non-Guaranteed Salary

T.J. McConnell ($4,300,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. McConnell’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
Kendall Brown ($2,120,693)
Total: $6,420,693

Dead/Retained Salary

Nik Stauskas ($702,311)
Juwan Morgan ($576,230)
Malik Fitts ($555,217)
Total: $1,833,758

Player Options

Jalen Smith ($5,417,386): Bird rights
Total: $5,417,386

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Obi Toppin ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $20,409,036 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $20,409,036

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
No. 49 overall pick (no cap hold)
No. 50 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Isaiah Jackson (rookie scale)
T.J. McConnell (veteran)
Doug McDermott (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Andrew Nembhard (veteran)
Pascal Siakam (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Jalen Smith (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Pascal Siakam ($42,300,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Siakam’s cap hold will be his maximum salary (30% of the 2024/25 cap).
Doug McDermott ($21,000,000 cap hold): Bird rights
James Johnson ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $65,393,637

Other Cap Holds

Gabe York ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $1,867,722

Note: The cap hold for York is on the Pacers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pacers project to operate under the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
Trade exception: $159,471

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

June 21st, 2024 at 10:04pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks‘ 47-35 record in 2022/23 was their best mark since the days of Carmelo Anthony and Mike Woodson, and their first-round triumph over Cleveland last year was the team’s first playoff series win in a decade. So the fact that they were even better in 2023/24 was no small feat.

This year’s Knicks improved their record to 50-32, and while they didn’t advance any further in the playoffs this spring than they did in 2023, they put up a stronger fight in the second round, taking a 3-2 lead over Indiana before a series of injuries caught up to them.

Jalen Brunson, who began heading down a path toward stardom in his first year as a Knick, completed that journey this past season, finishing fifth in MVP voting and claiming a spot on the All-NBA second team. He set new career highs in points (28.7) and assists (6.7) per game while providing crucial availability (77 starts) for a Knicks team that battled the injury bug all season long.

Brunson’s emergence as a legitimate star raises the team’s ceiling on the court going forward and changes the outlook for the front office. It seems safe to assume that head of basketball operations Leon Rose won’t be looking to acquire a ball-dominant guard (like, say, Donovan Mitchell) anytime soon.

Brunson has become the star point guard New York had been missing for so long, reducing any urgency the club might have felt to package assets in a trade for an impact player. Most of those assets are still on hand and could be used on the trade market if the right opportunity arises, but the Knicks can afford to be patient in waiting for that right deal, shifting their focus to wings, forwards, and big men rather than lead guards.

While the Knicks’ injury woes may have prevented the club from making a deeper playoff run, they created opportunities for players who otherwise wouldn’t have played such substantial roles. Isaiah Hartenstein, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles McBride, and Precious Achiuwa were among those who thrived upon taking on additional responsibilities. That should pay off in the long run, assuming New York is able to keep its roster intact (Hartenstein and Achiuwa are free agents, as is midseason acquisition OG Anunoby).

Running it back with a similar group would give the team one of the NBA’s deepest rosters once Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Anunoby, and Bojan Bogdanovic are back to full health. And, having seen the way those reserves performed in increased roles, the Knicks are in position return to the trade market confident they’ll still have plenty of depth even if they give up multiple solid rotation pieces in a deal for a single player, like they did when they gave up Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for Anunoby in December.

Knicks fans have had a rough go of it for the last couple decades, but the team’s future looks brighter now than it has at virtually any other point in the 21st century.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan

Re-signing Anunoby is an important first step for the Knicks this summer. The former Raptor is one of the NBA’s best three-and-D players – he has a .383 3PT% over the past five seasons and an All-Defensive nod under his belt – and his impact in his first 23 games as a Knick was undeniable. The team’s net rating during his 802 regular season minutes was an incredible +21.7. New York’s offensive rating (122.6) and defensive rating (100.9) during those minutes both would’ve ranked first in the NBA.

Anunoby’s injury history is a concern. He has been unavailable for at least 29 games in three of the past four seasons (he missed 15 in the fourth) and was on the shelf for most of the second-round series vs. Indiana last month. Plus, if a cap-room contender like the Sixers or Thunder gets involved in the bidding, his price as a free agent could rise higher than what the Knicks would prefer to pay. But New York didn’t acquire him to be a rental, and he’s been such a perfect fit that it’s hard to see the club letting him get away unless a rival suitor comes in with a long-term, maximum-salary offer.

Another team could offer Anunoby up to a projected $182MM over four years; the Knicks would likely be more comfortable with something in the four-year, $140-150MM range. We’ll have to wait to see if that’ll be enough to get it done or if they’ll face a decision on whether to match (or top) a higher bid.

The decision on Hartenstein should be a bit more straightforward. Since the Knicks hold the big man’s Early Bird rights, they’re limited to offering him a 75% raise on his previous salary. That works out to a starting salary around $16.2MM and a maximum four-year total of approximately $72.5MM. New York will have to determine whether it’s comfortable offering that full amount, which would be a significant investment in a player who is coming off a two-year, $16MM deal and who was averaging just 17.0 minutes per game before Robinson went down with his ankle injury.

It’s possible – but not certain – that another team would be willing to go even higher than $72.5MM over four years for Hartenstein, a reliable defender, strong rebounder, and good passer. An oversized short-term deal that guarantees him a substantial amount of money in the next couple years could also be an option for a team trying to steal him from the Knicks. However, the 26-year-old is said to be seeking long-term security and has spoken highly of his experience in New York, so if the Knicks make him a competitive offer, my guess is he’ll accept it, like Malik Monk did with the Kings’ Early Bird offer.

Re-signing both Anunoby and Hartenstein would be a big win for the Knicks, but it would also be expensive. Let’s pencil in a $35MM starting salary for Anunoby and assume Hartenstein gets his maximum first-year Early Bird salary. That’ll increase the Knicks’ total guaranteed salaries for 2024/25 to about $158MM for nine players, assuming Jericho Sims‘ inexpensive team option is picked up (which should be a lock)

If we assume the team guarantees Bogdanovic’s full $19MM salary (it’s currently partially guaranteed for $2MM), we’re up to nearly $175MM for 10 players. The Knicks don’t have to hang onto Bogdanovic, though recent reporting has suggested they probably will. He wasn’t great after the midseason trade that sent him from Detroit to New York, but Bogdanovic has been a reliable scorer and shooter for years and his expiring contract could serve as a useful salary-matching piece in a trade.

Bringing back those three players would push the Knicks’ team salary above the luxury tax line without accounting for either of their first-round picks. Or restricted free agent Achiuwa. Or unrestricted free agent Alec Burks. Or players to fill out the rest of the 15-man roster. It’s possible the club’s total salary could ultimately surpass the second tax apron in that scenario.

I don’t expect that to happen though, since being a second-apron team would prohibit the Knicks from aggregating player salaries in a trade, which would seriously hinder their ability to be opportunistic if and when a star becomes available. I expect the front office to make a concerted effort to at least remain below the second apron, and perhaps below the first apron too — operating over either apron would prohibit the Knicks from taking back more salary than they send out in a trade.

Avoiding one or both aprons would mean making a sacrifice somewhere else on the roster if both Anunoby and Hartenstein re-sign (if one of them walks, it likely won’t be an issue). Maybe that means waiving Bogdanovic. Maybe it means moving Robinson — a deal with the Thunder could make sense, given their rebounding woes, their available cap room, and their collection of draft assets. Achiuwa might also be a cap casualty unless the Knicks can get him back at a pretty favorable price, and I’d expect New York to trade at least one of its first-round picks (at No. 24 and 25), opening up that roster spot for a minimum-salary player.

While the Knicks should once again put themselves in position to trade a star, it’s unclear if the right fit will be out there this offseason. There has been plenty of speculation over the years about Karl-Anthony Towns, a CAA client who previously played for head coach Tom Thibodeau, and Towns’ ability to space the floor makes him an intriguing target. But he’ll be on one of the NBA’s most expensive long-term contracts beginning in 2024/25 and he’s not the sort of two-way contributor Thibodeau prefers.

I’d consider Paul George and Jimmy Butler two potential trade candidates who would be more logical fits for New York. George is a CAA client and Butler previously played for Thibodeau in both Chicago and Minnesota. More importantly, both players are capable of sharing the offensive load with Brunson and defending at a high level on the other end of the court.

It remains to be seen whether either player will be attainable though. George would probably have to pick up his player option for 2024/25 and push for a trade to New York — if he extends with the Clippers or declines his option to become a free agent, he’ll almost certainly be off the table for the capped-out Knicks. As for Butler, while there has been speculation that his contract demands might result in a standoff between him and the Heat, it’s still hard to imagine a scenario in which Miami agrees to trade him to one of its primary Eastern Conference rivals.

Some combination of Randle, Bogdanovic, and Robinson, along with draft assets, would likely need to be included in a trade for a maximum-salary player like George or Butler. In addition to their two 2024 first-round picks, the Knicks control all their own future first-rounders, as well as protected 2025 picks from Detroit, Washington, and Milwaukee.

Finally, we should touch on a pair of contract extension negotiations worth watching this offseason. Both Thibodeau and Brunson are entering contract years (Brunson holds a 2025/26 player option) and figure to be offered new deals soon, if they haven’t been already.

It sounds like it’s a matter of when, not if, Thibodeau is extended, though it remains to be seen how much he’ll paid and how many years he’ll get. A multiyear deal in the neighborhood of $10-11MM per year seems about right, given the rising salaries for head coaches around the NBA.

As for Brunson, he’ll be eligible to sign a four-year extension worth approximately $157MM. Waiting another year would make him eligible for a deal worth up to a projected $270MM over five years. There has been some speculation that he’ll be willing to do a deal sooner rather than later, which would be a great outcome for the Knicks, but even if it doesn’t get done this offseason, they shouldn’t be worried — yes, he could become a free agent in 2025, but there’s no indication he’d consider leaving New York at that time. Waiting the extra year would just be about maximizing his earnings.

Randle will also be extension-eligible this summer, but I’d be surprised if he gets a new deal done, given that he’ll spend most of the offseason recovering from shoulder surgery and isn’t necessarily a lock to be part of the Knicks’ long-term plans like Brunson is.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Julius Randle ($28,939,680)
- Randle’s cap hit includes a $27,561,600 base salary and $1,378,080 in likely incentives.
Jalen Brunson ($24,960,001)
Josh Hart ($18,144,000)
Mitchell Robinson ($14,318,182)
Donte DiVincenzo ($11,445,000)
Miles McBride ($4,710,144)
Bojan Bogdanovic ($2,000,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Total: $104,517,007

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Bojan Bogdanovic ($17,032,850)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Bogdanovic’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
Mamadi Diakite ($2,273,252)
Total: $19,306,102

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

OG Anunoby ($19,928,571): Bird rights
Total: $19,928,571

Team Options

DaQuan Jeffries ($2,463,946): Early Bird rights
Jericho Sims ($2,092,344): Bird rights
- Sims’ salary would be partially guaranteed for $651,180 if his option is exercised. That guarantee would increase to $1,302,359 after July 16 and to full after August 16.
Total: $4,556,290

Restricted Free Agents

Precious Achiuwa ($6,275,862 qualifying offer / $13,138,581 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $13,138,581

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Knicks, Washington’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,168,944). Brown is no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract and would also have a qualifying offer worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 24 overall pick ($2,833,800 cap hold)
No. 25 overall pick ($2,720,040 cap hold)
No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $5,553,840

Extension-Eligible Players

OG Anunoby (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if player option is exercised).
Jalen Brunson (veteran)
Alec Burks (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Julius Randle (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of August 3.
Mitchell Robinson (veteran)
Jericho Sims (veteran)
- Team option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Alec Burks ($19,930,240 cap hold): Bird rights
Isaiah Hartenstein ($12,018,657 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Shake Milton ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $34,042,534

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Knicks project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and their trade exceptions and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they exceed the second apron, they would lose access to all of their exceptions.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
Trade exception: $6,803,012
- Expires on July 8.
Trade exception: $5,241,072
Trade exception: $3,873,025

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 21st, 2024 at 8:01am CST by Rory Maher

After going 22-50 in 2020/21 and 24-58 in ’21/22, the Thunder took a major step forward in their rebuild in ’22/23, finishing 40-42, good for the No. 10 seed in the West. Oklahoma City won its first play-in game that season over New Orleans, but the team was eliminated from postseason contention by Minnesota, which advanced as last season’s No. 8 seed.

A year-over-year increase of 16 wins is pretty rare in the NBA. Yet in 2023/24, the Thunder actually surpassed that total, winning an additional 17 games and finishing 57-25 (they had the same record as Denver but claimed the West’s top seed due to a head-to-head tiebreaker). Oklahoma City finished the regular season third in offensive rating and fourth in defense, for an overall net rating of +7.3, which only trailed the Celtics (+11.7).

In their first playoff run with their young core, the Thunder quickly dispatched the Pelicans in a first-round sweep before falling to the Mavericks in a six-game second-round series. While the outcome was obviously disappointing, it was a competitive series — the two teams scored the exact same number of points. Dallas went on to make the NBA Finals, losing to Boston in five games.

Oklahoma City’s ascent from a rising young team to a legitimate contender was very rapid, spearheaded by the emergence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a MVP candidate — he finished third in the 2024 balloting. Second-year wing Jalen Williams and center Chet Holmgren, who just finished his rookie campaign but has technically been under contract for two years, round out the Thunder’s formidable (and very young) big three.

With Gilgeous-Alexander as the team’s primary ball-handler and Williams a frequent secondary creator, Josh Giddey became expendable. The Mavs dared Giddey to shoot in their second-round series and he struggled defensively as well, later admitting his confidence took a hit. Reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault ultimately moved the former sixth overall pick to the bench, but even before the playoffs, Giddey’s fit going forward was a major question mark.

The Thunder are trading Giddey to the Bulls in a one-for-one swap for defensive stalwart Alex Caruso, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. OKC had its sights set on the 30-year-old for a while and the team reportedly views him as a long-term fit. Caruso is on an expiring contract but will be extension-eligible during the season, whereas Giddey will be restricted next year if he doesn’t sign a rookie scale extension with Chicago this offseason.

It’s worth noting that Caruso has ties to the Thunder, having played for Daigneault while the two were with the Blue — OKC’s NBA G League affiliate — several years ago. Caruso also publicly praised Daigneault back in November.

The move made a lot of sense, as Caruso doesn’t need the ball to be effective and is in a different league as a defender compared to Giddey. He’s also a much better shooter, having made 40.8% of his 4.7 three-point attempts in 2023/24, versus 33.7% (a career-high) on 3.0 attempts for Giddey.

President of basketball operations Sam Presti has been hoarding draft picks for years, so Oklahoma City has plenty of non-player assets to dangle in additional trade talks. The Thunder also project to have $33MM+ in cap room this summer, putting the team in a unique position as a contender who can be a major player in free agency.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan

The Thunder have Gilgeous-Alexander, three-and-D wing Luguentz Dort, and last year’s 10th pick, Cason Wallace, under team control for at least the next three seasons. The same is true of Kenrich Williams, though his future with OKC seems a little uncertain after his role was reduced this past season. Still, Williams’ contract is relatively team-friendly and he would likely appeal to rival teams if he were made available.

The 2026 offseason is an important one to keep in mind for OKC, as that’s when Holmgren and Jalen Williams will have completed the fourth and final seasons of their rookie scale contracts and will be up for new deals. Based on how they played this past season and factoring in projected growth, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if they both received maximum-salary contracts in the future, whether that comes via extensions in the 2025 offseason or as restricted free agents in 2026.

That means the Thunder have a two-year window to take advantage of their financial flexibility, since it may be the last period in which they’ll have a significant amount of room available for quite some time. The Thunder don’t have to commit long-term money this summer if they don’t want to though — they could preserve flexibility for 2025 by “overpaying” a player or two on short-term deals, similar to what happened with Indiana and Bruce Brown last offseason.

The Pacers gave Brown a two-year, $45MM contract which only features one fully guaranteed season (the second is a team option). They later used him as salary-matching ballast in the trade to acquire Pascal Siakam from the Raptors (Toronto is expected to exercise its $23MM option on Brown and will reportedly look to trade him).

That type of contract structure could be appealing to the Thunder if they want to hedge their bets. The players they sign could be used as salary-matching pieces if the right opportunities present themselves while also (hopefully) being positive contributors for OKC.

Isaiah Hartenstein has been mentioned as a possible free agent target, and he only has Early Bird rights, which means the Knicks are limited to offering him a four-year, $72.5MM deal. One rumor suggested the Thunder might be willing to offer Hartenstein a short-term deal — perhaps two years — with a high salary. Would that appeal to Hartenstein?

Fred Katz of The Athletic recently reported the 26-year-old big man is looking for “long-term security, not high-risk, high-reward instability,” so a deal with just one or two guaranteed years may be a tough sell. If they wanted to, the Thunder could easily offer Hartenstein a three-year deal that matches or exceeds New York’s total, allowing him to hit free agency a year earlier while joining a great team.

Hartenstein would bring a different dynamic to the Thunder as a more “traditional” big man. While I place a high value on the 26-year-old’s game, I don’t necessarily love his fit with Oklahoma City. The main reason for that is the Thunder run a “five-out” offense predicated on everyone being able to handle the ball, pass and shoot. That spacing creates driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, and is part of what makes Holmgren so effective as a center. Hartenstein makes good on-ball decisions and is a plus passer for a big man, but he’s essentially a non-shooter.

Of course, that’s just a cursory glance at his potential fit. Hartenstein is also an excellent screener and an unselfish ball mover — a fairly atypical combination for a big man. When they’re at their best, the Thunder are frequently moving, setting screens and back-cutting toward the basket on the weak side. That would seemingly pair well with Hartenstein.

Hartenstein had an excellent all-around season by traditional measures and by advanced statistics. For instance, when he was on the court during the regular season, the Knicks had the equivalent of the NBA’s third-best offense and second-best defense (they were slightly negative when he didn’t play). He ranked seventh in the league in defensive FG% at the rim, ahead of Victor Wembanyama, Brook Lopez and Anthony Davis. He would also improve the Thunder’s rebounding at both ends of the court.

The Thunder’s biggest weakness during the 2023/24 season was on the boards, ranking just 27th in the league in rebounds per game and 28th in rebounding percentage. That weakness was exploited by Dallas in the postseason, particularly on the offensive glass, where the Thunder struggled to limit second-chance opportunities.

The main issue with potentially signing Hartenstein is that I think Holmgren is clearly a center, not a power forward. How many minutes would Hartenstein realistically play? I suppose OKC could attempt to pair them at times, since they can both pass and Holmgren can space the floor, but the fit might be awkward.

Holmgren is a fearsome paint protector in his own right, ranking just ahead of Hartenstein in DFG% at the rim. He’s also a more dynamic offensive player due to his three-level scoring.

I’m just not sold on paying Hartenstein a high salary to be a backup, and that’s what he’d be on the Thunder. I’m also not sure his trade value would be positive if he were making $20MM+ annually and didn’t have a starting role.

I do like the idea of the Thunder going after a big man like Wendell Carter, who has shot 36.4% from three-point range on 3.5 attempts per game over the past two seasons. He would provide more bulk off the bench while preserving the team’s ability to space the floor. The Magic center, who is still just 25, makes $22.8MM over the next two seasons.

Before they traded for Caruso, the Thunder were also linked to his Bulls teammate, Patrick Williams. When healthy and playing his best, Williams fits the mold of a three-and-D player with athletic tools and some on-ball upside. However, he’s a restricted free agent — Chicago can theoretically match any offer sheet he receives — and he has also missed significant time due to injuries in two of the past three seasons.

At the very least, the Thunder have to hit the salary floor. They will have to use their cap room in some fashion. If it’s not Hartenstein or Williams, it will need to be someone else.

If preserving flexibility is the top priority, I don’t hate the idea of the Thunder signing someone like Tobias Harris to a short-term deal. Klay Thompson is another name to keep an eye on for a front-loaded contract, though I don’t love his fit at this point in his career due to his defensive limitations.

A high-IQ veteran like Nicolas Batum would make sense as forward with some size and versatility. Ditto for Kyle Anderson, though he’s a very methodical and inconsistent shooter.

A floor-spacing big man like Jalen Smith could be attainable for some of the room exception. Goga Bitadze or Andre Drummond would likely be cheaper options at backup center, but neither is a threat to shoot from behind the arc.

As for the No. 12 pick, the Thunder have typically taken a “best player available” approach. With their draft arsenal, they could move up, down, or out of the draft; none of those scenarios would be surprising.

Technically, the Thunder could create enough cap room to sign certain players to a maximum-salary contract if they trade Kenrich Williams and Ousmane Dieng or the No. 12 pick. OG Anunoby, for example, would work in that scenario — I think he’d be a great fit, but it would be a high-risk, high-reward move given his lengthy injury history.

While Oklahoma City doesn’t have any major free agents this summer, the team does have three role players with non-guaranteed team options in Lindy Waters, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. There’s no reason to believe Joe and Wiggins won’t be back, either on their inexpensive team options or on new contracts that give them a raise. But Waters’ position is more tenuous after he bounced between two-way and standard deals for the past two years. Backup big man Jaylin Williams also has a non-guaranteed contract for 2024/25 — I expect him to return as well.

The Thunder could be a major player for any star that becomes available in the future. They have the draft assets to top just about any team’s offers. While it’s true they have a two-season window to take advantage of their cap flexibility, they also need to pick their supporting cast wisely, and there’s nothing wrong with waiting until the trade deadline — or even until next season — if further opportunities to improve the rotation don’t materialize this summer.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($35,859,950)
Luguentz Dort ($16,500,000)
Chet Holmgren ($10,880,640)
Kenrich Williams ($6,669,000)
Cason Wallace ($5,555,880)
Ousmane Dieng ($5,027,040)
Jalen Williams ($4,775,760)
Alex Caruso ($3,000,000)
- It’s not official yet, but the Thunder have a trade agreement in place to acquire Caruso for Josh Giddey.
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Total: $88,268,270

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Alex Caruso ($6,890,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Caruso’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30.
Jaylin Williams ($2,019,699)
Adam Flagler (two-way)
Total: $8,909,699

Dead/Retained Salary

Kevin Porter Jr. ($1,000,000)
Total: $1,000,000

Player Options

None

Team Options

Lindy Waters ($2,196,970): Bird rights
- Waters’ salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Isaiah Joe ($2,164,993): Early Bird rights
- Joe’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Aaron Wiggins ($1,988,598): Bird rights
- Wiggins’ salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Total: $6,350,561

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Keyontae Johnson: Non-Bird rights
Olivier Sarr: Early Bird rights

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Thunder, Sarr’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,168,944). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 12 overall pick ($4,950,480 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $4,950,480

Extension-Eligible Players

Alex Caruso (veteran)
- Years and dollars will be limited until six months after the trade.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (veteran)
Gordon Hayward (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Isaiah Joe (veteran)
- Team option must be exercised; extension-eligible as of October 16.
Aaron Wiggins (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if team option is exercised).
Jaylin Williams (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Gordon Hayward ($49,350,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Hayward’s cap hold will be either 35% of the 2024/25 cap or $49,979,096, whichever is lesser.
Bismack Biyombo ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Mike Muscala ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $53,537,274

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Thunder project to operate under the cap.

Room exception: $8,006,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 20th, 2024 at 11:33am CST by Luke Adams

In 2022/23, the Cavaliers made the playoffs without LeBron James on their roster for the first time since 1998 and earned the No. 4 seed before being quickly dispatched in the first round by the No. 5 Knicks. They entered the ’23/24 season with a fairly simple goal: win their first playoff series without LeBron since 1993.

Cleveland ultimately achieved that goal, but the path to get there was a bumpy and somewhat unsatisfying one. Rather than taking a step forward during the regular season, they won three fewer games (48) than they did a year ago (51), then narrowly escaped a seven-game first-round series against a lower-seeded Magic team whose core players were participating in their first postseason. The Cavs were never close to getting past the Celtics in the second round, falling to the eventual champions in five games.

Now, there are a few caveats that make the Cavs’ season sound better than it appeared on the surface. They had to deal with a series of injuries affecting their most important players in both the regular season – Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley each missed 25+ games – and the postseason, where starting center Jarrett Allen missed eight of 12 contests due to a rib injury and a calf issue sidelined Mitchell for final two games vs. Boston. And even if the Cavs had been fully healthy, no one was beating the Celtics in these playoffs — Cleveland’s one win against them was as many as any of Boston’s four playoff opponents earned.

Still, Cavs management was dissatisfied enough with the team’s season on the whole to make a head coaching change this spring, dismissing J.B. Bickerstaff after he spent four-plus seasons in that role. The club has yet to officially hire a replacement, but appears to be leaning toward James Borrego, the former Hornets head coach who has spent the last two seasons as a top assistant in New Orleans.

Will the head coaching change be the only major move the Cavaliers make this offseason, or will the front office also determine that significant roster changes are needed to take the next step toward title contention? Will Mitchell, who can become a free agent in 2025, sign an extension with the franchise or decline to commit beyond next season? The answers to those two questions will help the Cavs chart a path this summer and will determine just how similar next year’s roster looks to this year’s.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan

We don’t yet have definitive answers to the two questions posed above, but recent chatter has suggested we’re trending in a certain direction. A series of reports have indicated there’s growing optimism in Cleveland about the team’s odds of extending Mitchell this offseason. That would be a big win for the Cavs, who gave up a huge collection of assets — including Lauri Markkanen and multiple unprotected first-round picks — to acquire Mitchell from Utah two years ago.

There has been speculation that Mitchell will opt for a shorter-term extension that lines him up to get his next deal in 2027, when he has 10 years of service under his belt, rather than seeking the longest term possible at this time. I have to think that would be just fine with the Cavaliers, who would be happy to get some clarity of any kind and would be able to put off any major decisions about Mitchell’s future for at least a couple more years. If that scenario comes to pass, the star guard would likely sign a three-year extension worth a projected $151MM that begins in 2025/26 and includes a third-year player option for ’27/28.

If Mitchell gets extended, Garland’s future will become the newest subject of speculation in Cleveland. The former All-Star is under contract for four more guaranteed seasons and the Cavs have shown no inclination to break up their star-studded backcourt, but at least one report has stated that a new deal for Mitchell could prompt Garland’s representatives at Klutch Sports to talk to the club about finding a new home for their client. Garland, who made the All-Star team in 2022, has seen his scoring, assists, and usage rate decline in the two seasons since Mitchell’s arrival.

Even if Garland or his reps ask for a trade, the Cavaliers would be under no obligation to grant that request, given that he has no path to free agency until 2028. But it’s fair to wonder if it might actually be in the club’s best interest to consider a deal that sends out Garland for a wing who would better balance the roster.

The best stretch of Cleveland’s 2023/24 season came after Garland suffered a broken jaw in December. The team, which had a 13-12 record to that point, went 15-4 with Garland sidelined. Additionally, while Mitchell had a +7.3 net rating during his 1,943 regular season minutes, that number dipped to +4.4 during the 750 minutes in which he shared the court with Garland.

On their own, those numbers aren’t nearly compelling enough to justify trading a 24-year-old who has an All-Star nod on his résumé, especially since they don’t tell the full story — for instance, a few of the wins in that 15-4 stretch came without Mitchell available, and the team’s hot streak extended well into Garland’s return. While they’re both ball-dominant, Mitchell and Garland are also reliable three-point shooters, so the fit isn’t bad. That’s why I expect the club to keep its guard duo intact through the 2024 offseason, unless things go south in some way (e.g. Mitchell doesn’t sign an extension, or Garland pushes aggressively for a trade).

That’s not the only positional overlap the Cavs will have to evaluate this summer though. Mobley is up for a rookie scale extension and is considered likely to get a maximum-salary offer. Up to this point, the team has been happy to play him at power forward alongside Allen at center, but the strengths (rim protection, interior scoring) and weaknesses (a lack of floor spacing) of those two big men are pretty similar, resulting in speculation that Mobley will eventually make the move to the five.

As with the guards, there are reasons why it makes some sense to retain both bigs. Having both of them available gives the Cavs the ability to have an elite rim protector on the floor for all 48 minutes, and playing them alongside one another helps make up for defensive breakdowns on the perimeter. The duo also didn’t really get the chance to show what it could do together on the postseason stage, since Allen was injured in Game 4 of the first round and didn’t play again after that.

But again, the Cavs had a better net rating with just one of Allen or Mobley on the court than they did when the two big men played together. And if the club decides Mobley is the center of the future, Allen would have substantial value on the trade market this summer, given his relatively team-friendly contract, which has just two years and $40MM left on it.

While I like the idea of moving Allen a little more than I like the idea of moving Garland, finding a perfect match isn’t easy. From an on-court perspective, a deal with the Pelicans (who have had interest in Allen for years) involving Brandon Ingram makes a ton of sense, but if the Cavs are already on the hook for maximum-salary contracts for Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley, acquiring Ingram in order to extend him and add a fourth max deal to their books probably isn’t financially feasible. If Cleveland is going to move Allen for a wing or forward, the team would probably want that player earning a salary more in the range of Allen’s $20MM.

Washington could be a fit. Kyle Kuzma‘s three-year, $64.4MM contract is far more manageable that what Ingram will earn over the next few seasons. However, Kuzma’s subpar three-point efficiency (33.6% in 2023/24; 33.7% for his career) would be an issue for the Cavs, and the rebuilding Wizards, who are in position to draft their center of their future (Alexandre Sarr or Donovan Clingan) at No. 2 in next week’s draft, may not have much interest in Allen.

With those roadblocks in mind, it’s perhaps not surprising that Koby Altman told reporters in May that he doesn’t expect “sweeping changes” this offseason, or that recent reports have suggested the front office’s private stance has aligned with its public one.

If Mitchell signs an extension, all four of Cleveland’s core pieces will be under contract for multiple seasons and would each still have significant trade value at the 2025 trade deadline, in the 2025 offseason, or even at the 2026 deadline. The Cavs can afford to be patient for the time being, perhaps waiting to see if the new head coach helps that core unlock its full potential. There’s no reason to rush into a trade involving Garland or Allen this summer unless the deal is an obvious fit from both a basketball and financial perspective.

So if the Cavs stand pat with their big four, what might their offseason look like? Well, their position to the tax line will have to be a consideration as they weigh possible decisions, including what to do with restricted free agent Isaac Okoro. If we assume the team locks in Craig Porter‘s partially guaranteed salary and keeps its first-round pick (20th overall), payroll would be at about $159MM for 11 players. That would leave plenty of room below a projected $171MM+ luxury tax line to fill out the roster with minimum-salary players, but a new deal for Okoro – whose qualifying offer is $11.8MM and who will likely exceed that figure on a new contract – would almost certainly push the Cavs into a tax territory.

If the Cavs want to retain Okoro and aren’t prepared to be a taxpayer, perhaps a deal involving Caris LeVert ($16.6MM) or Georges Niang ($8.5MM) could be in the cards. Frankly, both players could become trade candidates even if tax savings aren’t a consideration.

LeVert doesn’t make sense in the club’s starting five and is on an expiring contract. While he has some value as a sixth man, the club could stagger Mitchell and Garland to ensure one of them is running the second unit, reducing the need for another ball-dominant player like LeVert in that group. As for Niang, he was one of Cleveland’s most-used reserves during the season and shot the ball well (.376 3PT%), but saw his minutes slashed in the playoffs due to his defensive limitations. Both guys have value to Cleveland, but I expect the team to at least explore upgrading their spots.

Ty Jerome is another candidate to be traded after he missed nearly his entire first year in Cleveland due to an ankle injury, though his cap hit is just $2.56MM. If he’s healthy, the Cavs may prefer to keep Jerome and see if he can deliver on the promise he showed in 2022/23 that prompted the club to give him a guaranteed two-year deal in the first place.

If this year’s No. 20 pick isn’t used as a sweetener in a trade, the Cavs can afford to take the best player available at that spot, since they won’t necessarily be expecting that player to vie for a spot in the rotation right away. I could also see the club trading down in order to replenish its cupboard of future draft assets a little and to reduce the cap hit for that pick. For what it’s worth, the latest mock drafts from both ESPN and Bleacher Report have the club rolling the dice at No. 20 on one of the youngest players in the draft, Pittsburgh guard Carlton Carrington.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Darius Garland ($36,725,670)
Donovan Mitchell ($35,410,310)
Jarrett Allen ($20,000,000)
Caris LeVert ($16,615,384)
Max Strus ($15,212,068)
Evan Mobley ($11,227,657)
Georges Niang ($8,500,000)
Dean Wade ($6,166,667)
Ty Jerome ($2,560,975)
Craig Porter ($1,000,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
Total: $153,418,731

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Sam Merrill ($2,164,993)
Craig Porter ($891,857)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
Total: $3,056,850

Dead/Retained Salary

Ricky Rubio ($1,274,015)
Total: $1,274,015

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Isaac Okoro ($11,828,974 qualifying offer / $26,762,385 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $26,762,385

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Cavaliers, Mobley’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 20 overall pick ($3,336,000 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,336,000

Extension-Eligible Players

Jarrett Allen (veteran)
Donovan Mitchell (veteran)
Evan Mobley (rookie scale)
Dean Wade (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 27.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Damian Jones ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Marcus Morris ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Tristan Thompson ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Other Cap Holds

Ed Davis ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Raul Neto ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Rajon Rondo ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Cavaliers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Cavaliers project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

June 19th, 2024 at 8:22pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning the first championship in franchise history a year ago, the Nuggets kept their starting five intact but lost a pair of reserves who played key roles during that title run. While Bruce Brown and Jeff Green were the first two players off the bench for Denver in last year’s postseason, the Nuggets weren’t in position to compete with Indiana’s offer for Brown – which included a $22MM starting salary – or the Rockets’ bid for Green (an $8MM starting salary, plus incentives).

The Nuggets’ plan to address those holes in their rotation centered on youth. In addition to drafting three experienced prospects who had a combined 13 college seasons under their belts (Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson), Denver figured second-year players Christian Braun and Peyton Watson would be ready to take on larger roles, as would fourth-year big man Zeke Nnaji.

The Nuggets’ plan wasn’t entirely misguided — Braun, in particular, had a strong sophomore season, earning head coach Michael Malone‘s trust and a spot in Denver’s playoff rotation. But Watson was up and down, Nnaji’s playing time dropped to just 9.9 minutes per game, and the three rookies weren’t as NBA-ready as the front office had hoped.

By the time the Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs, there were only really six players (the starters, plus Braun) that Malone felt like he could count on, with even veteran reserves like Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson seeing very limited minutes in the postseason.

The Nuggets don’t need to overhaul their roster. The starting five of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remained extremely effective in 2023/24, registering the second-best net rating of any lineup that played at least 250 minutes together (+13.6). But Malone simply had to rely on that five-man group too heavily — it logged 958 total minutes together across 48 games, while the league’s second most-used lineup (the Thunder’s starters) played 799 minutes in 63 outings.

The challenge for Denver’s front office this offseason is twofold. First, can the Nuggets keep that starting five intact for another year? Caldwell-Pope holds a $15.4MM player option that he’s expected to decline, and there will certainly be rival suitors looking to steal the three-and-D stalwart away from the 2023 champions.

Second, whether Caldwell-Pope re-signs or whether Denver has to elevate Braun to its starting five, can the Nuggets do a better job of constructing a reliable second unit? The salary cap situation won’t make it easy — with Caldwell-Pope back, team salary could rise above the restrictive second tax apron, and even without him on the books, the club projects to be a taxpayer.

General manager Calvin Booth earned kudos a year ago for the moves he made to help turn the Nuggets into a championship team, but most of the core was built when Tim Connelly was running the front office. This offseason will represent Booth’s biggest challenge yet, as he looks to put together a roster capable of returning to the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan

The Nuggets hold Caldwell-Pope’s full Bird rights, so assuming he turns down his ’24/25 player option, as expected, there’s nothing stopping them from offering as much as it takes to re-sign him. It simply comes down to what sort of commitment management and ownership are comfortable with.

Caldwell-Pope isn’t a particularly dynamic offensive player, but he has made 41.5% of his three-point attempts since arriving in Denver and is one of the keys to the defense — he and Gordon take on the most challenging assignments on that end of the floor. That makes him an extremely valuable role player, and at age 31, a team can feel relatively confident about investing in him for the next three or four seasons and not having his performance fall off significantly in the later years of that contract.

An annual salary of $20MM+ certainly seems within reach for Caldwell-Pope, so unless he’s willing to accept any sort of discount to remain in Denver, the team may have to offer something in the neighborhood of Gordon’s current deal ($87MM over four years) to retain him. That would likely mean operating over the second apron unless the Nuggets can shed salary elsewhere on the roster.

If Denver does look to cut costs, Nnaji would be an obvious candidate to be moved. He’s entering the first season of a front-loaded four-year, $32MM contract that he signed last fall. At the time, it seemed like a reasonable investment, with Nnaji seemingly poised to take on a larger role in Green’s absence, perhaps even serving as Jokic’s primary backup at center. But 2023/24 was the 23-year-old’s worst NBA season, as he averaged just 3.2 PPG and 2.2 RPG on .463/.261/.677 shooting. Needless to say, if he were eligible for restricted free agency this summer, a four-year, $32MM deal would be a long shot.

Nnaji’s salary isn’t massive, and he’s still young enough to be a bounce-back candidate, but his value has slipped so precipitously in the last year that it would take draft assets to move off his four-year contract. The Nuggets may prefer to preserve those assets for a move that actually upgrades the roster instead of just saving some money.

If we assume Caldwell-Pope re-signs and Nnaji returns, the Nuggets’ roster-building options aren’t extensive. Jokic, Murray, and Gordon aren’t going anywhere, and the team’s top decision-makers signaled at the end of the season that Porter wouldn’t be moved either. No one else is earning more than $5.25MM – or $3.1MM, if Jackson declines his $5.25MM player option – and if Denver is operating over the second apron, the team won’t be able to aggregate salaries in a trade.

A lack of trade activity would leave two paths for filling out the bench: hoping for improvement from young players and scouring the free agent market for minimum-salary bargains. As we discussed above, that was the strategy that didn’t work particularly well last year, though there’s reason to hope it could be more successful this time around. Players often make major strides between their first and second or second and third seasons, so guys like Watson, Strawther, and Pickett could follow Braun’s path and become more consistent performers in 2024/25.

It’d be risky to count on that though, so the Nuggets ought to be a little more aggressive seeking out a rotation player or two who would be willing to sign for the minimum. Denver can offer a good situation for veterans looking to contend for a championship and potentially play regular minutes. Torrey Craig, Kyle Lowry, Lonnie Walker, Delon Wright, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Mason Plumlee, and Daniel Theis are some potential low-cost targets I like.

The Nuggets will also have to make a decision on Vlatko Cancar, who missed the entire 2023/24 season due to an ACL tear and has a $2.35MM team option for ’24/25. Cancar steadily took on a larger role over his first four years in Denver (2019-23) and his injury was a factor in why the team’s bench didn’t live up to expectations last season. Having Cancar available wouldn’t have entirely turned things around, but he showed some real promise in the championship season, averaging 5.0 PPG and 2.1 RPG with a 37.4% three-point percentage in 60 games (14.8 MPG). If the club feels good about where his health is at following his ACL recovery, he should be back.

Finally, Denver holds the 28th and 56th overall picks in this year’s draft. The front office is unlikely to find an immediate contributor at No. 56, but the other selection could prove useful. There have been rumblings that the Nuggets have made Dayton’s DaRon Holmes II a draft promise — if he’s the target and the team believes he’ll be available early in the second round, exploring a trade back would make sense, since the luxury tax impact of an early second-rounder could be quite a bit less than that of a late first-rounder.

Of the Nuggets’ extension candidates, Murray and Gordon are the ones worth keeping the closest eye on, as both players could become free agents in 2025. Murray has just one year left on his current contract, while Gordon has a player option for 2025/26.

Murray could make himself eligible for a super-max contract (starting at up to 35% of the 2025/26 cap instead of 30%) if he makes an All-NBA team next season. That idea may be tempting, given that Booth suggested last October the Nuggets would open to offering Murray a super-max deal. But it’s a risky move for a player who has battled injuries in recent years, including an ACL tear that cost him the entire 2021/22 season. Murray could still sign for up to $208MM over four years on a standard maximum-salary deal this summer, which would be a pretty nice payday if Denver is willing to offer it.

As for Gordon, he’ll become eligible in September for an extension that could be worth up to about $143MM over four years. That’d be a huge commitment for a player who is a fourth option on offense, but the former lottery pick has been such a perfect fit alongside Jokic in Denver on both sides of the ball that he might be worth it, especially with the salary cap expected to rise by 10% annually over the life of the deal.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Nikola Jokic ($51,415,938)
Jamal Murray ($36,016,200)
Michael Porter Jr. ($35,859,950)
Aaron Gordon ($22,841,455)
Zeke Nnaji ($8,888,889)
Christian Braun ($3,089,640)
Julian Strawther ($2,552,520)
Peyton Watson ($2,413,560)
Jalen Pickett ($1,891,857)
Hunter Tyson ($1,891,857)
Total: $166,861,866

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($15,440,185): Bird rights
Reggie Jackson ($5,250,000): Early Bird rights
Total: $20,690,185

Team Options

Vlatko Cancar ($2,346,606): Bird rights
Total: $2,346,606

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Nuggets, Gillespie’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 28 overall pick ($2,538,240 cap hold)
No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $2,538,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.
Vlatko Cancar (veteran)
- Team option must be exercised.
Aaron Gordon (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 27.
Jamal Murray (veteran)
Michael Porter Jr. (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of September 29.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Justin Holiday ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
DeAndre Jordan ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $4,187,274

Other Cap Holds

DeMarcus Cousins ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Troy Daniels ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Richard Jefferson ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Markus Howard ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $8,148,633

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Nuggets project to operate over the cap and over the first apron. If they move above the second apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

Top 50 NBA Free Agents Of 2024

June 18th, 2024 at 8:05am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA offseason has begun and so has free agency — sort of. For the first time this year, teams are permitted to begin negotiating with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals end rather than having to wait until June 30 to do. Clubs still aren’t allowed to talk to rival teams’ free agents until June 30, and most contracts can’t be officially signed until July 6, but it’s possible some free agents will reach tentative agreements prior to the typical opening on the free agent period.

Listed below are our top 50 free agents for the 2024/25 NBA season.

Our rankings are essentially a reflection of what sort of contract we expect each player to sign, with our focus leaning more toward market value than on-court value. The rankings take into account both a player’s short-term and long-term value — if we were to consider solely a player’s worth for 2024/25, certain veterans would place higher, while younger free agents with upside would be ranked lower.

Players who have contracts for next season aren’t listed here, even if they’re candidates to be waived (Chris Paul and his $30MM non-guaranteed salary, for instance).

In addition to the players listed below, there are plenty of other free agents available this summer. You can check out our breakdowns of free agents by position/type and by team for the full picture.

Here are our top 50 free agents of 2024:

(Note: We’ve included news of contract agreements for the players who reached deals before the official start of free agency on June 30.)

1. Paul George, F, Clippers
George is in a perfect position to cash in this summer, with his current team – the Clippers – feeling pressure to retain him as it moves into its new Inglewood arena and looks to keep its window of contention propped open, while the contender with the most cap room – Philadelphia – has made the star forward its top target. When teammate Kawhi Leonard signed a three-year, $152MM extension in January, it appeared George might have to “settle” for a similar deal. Now a four-year, maximum-salary contract worth at least $212MM (or up to $221MM if he re-signs in L.A.) appears entirely realistic for George, even at age 34.

2. Tyrese Maxey, G, Sixers (RFA)
After just missing out an All-NBA team this season, Maxey didn’t qualify for the “Rose Rule” max that would have started at 30% of the 2024/25 salary cap instead of 25%. That will make the Sixers’ decision on the 23-year-old pretty easy. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which they don’t offer this season’s Most Improved Player a five-year, maximum-salary deal that will pay him a projected $204MM. Maxey’s cap hold is only around $13MM, so Philadelphia will use up all its cap room before using his Bird rights to go over the cap to sign the ascendant guard to a deal starting at $35MM+.

3. Pascal Siakam, F, Pacers
The Raptors traded Siakam in January in part because they didn’t appear comfortable committing to him on another long-term, maximum-salary deal. The Pacers were willing to give up three first-round picks for the two-time All-NBA forward because they’re more comfortable with that idea, especially after he led the team in playoff scoring en route to an appearance in the Eastern Conference finals. Siakam doesn’t fit the mold of a traditional star, but he provides positive value in a lot of different ways and should have several more prime years left in him as he enters his age-30 season. I’m not sure the Pacers will go up to five guaranteed years, but Siakam’s deal will be one of the summer’s largest.
Update: Siakam reportedly intends to sign a four-year, maximum-salary contract with the Pacers.

4. LeBron James, F, Lakers
You can certainly make the case that James, a four-time MVP and one of the NBA’s all-time greats, belongs at the top of this list, given that he’ll receive another maximum-salary contract this offseason unless he decides to accept a pay cut. But the three players above him are also considered good bets to sign for the max or close to it, so their overall paydays this summer figure to surpass that of James, who is ineligible for a deal longer than three years due to the Over-38 rule. James will turn 40 in December and may not even want to play for three more years, but after averaging at least 25 points per game for a 20th straight season, I expect the Lakers – and any other suitor – to give him whatever deal he asks for.

5. OG Anunoby, F, Knicks
If there were a version of Anunoby who was a lock to play 75 games every year, he’d probably be a legitimate maximum-salary candidate. Teams will be reluctant to make that sort of commitment to this version. As dynamic a three-and-D player as Anunoby is, injuries have cost him 29, 34, 15, and 32 games in the past four seasons. Still, it’s hard to overstate the impact he had on the Knicks following a midseason trade from Toronto. New York’s net rating during his 802 regular season minutes was an eye-popping +21.7. Both the Knicks’ offensive rating (122.6) and defensive rating (100.9) during those minutes would’ve ranked first in the NBA.
Update: Anunoby reportedly intends to sign a five-year, $212.5MM contract with the Knicks.

6. DeMar DeRozan, F, Bulls
The Bulls raised some eyebrows in 2021 when they gave up a handful of assets, including a first-round pick, to sign-and-trade for DeRozan and awarded him a three-year, $82MM contract. It turned out to be perhaps the best move the team’s current front office has made. DeRozan’s scoring average of 25.5 points per game since arriving in Chicago is the highest of any three-year stretch in his career, and he showed no signs of slowing down during his age-34 season in 2023/24, improbably leading the NBA in total minutes. He’s not going to get a massive long-term contract, but there’s no reason to think DeRozan will have to take a pay cut on his ’24/25 salary of $28.6MM.

7. Immanuel Quickley, G, Raptors (RFA)
It may be surprising to see Quickley rank this high, but he’s going to get paid this offseason. Recent rookie scale extension recipients like Tyler Herro (four years, $120MM), Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM), and Devin Vassell (five years, $135MM) are a few points of comparison for Quickley, who was the centerpiece of Toronto’s return in the Anunoby trade and averaged 18.6 points, 6.8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game with a .395 3PT% in his first 38 games as a Raptor. I fully expect Quickley’s new deal to be in the nine figures.
Update: Quickley reportedly intends to sign a five-year, $175MM contract with the Raptors.

8. Nic Claxton, C, Nets
Referred to as a future Defensive Player of the Year by his new head coach, Claxton will enter the offseason as the top center in a relatively weak class of free agent big men, with many teams around the NBA in need of rim protection. The Nets have called re-signing Claxton a top priority, but figure to face significant competition for his services, so a long-term contract worth $25MM per year certainly seems within reach for the 25-year-old.
Update: Claxton reportedly intends to sign a four-year, $100MM contract with the Nets.

9. James Harden, G, Clippers
The former MVP is no longer an offense unto himself like he was during his prime with the Rockets, having taken a step back in recent years in Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles while playing with other stars. Harden’s usage rate, which got up to 40.5% one season in Houston, was just 20.6% in 2023/24, easily the lowest it’s been since his Thunder days. Harden is still a talented scorer and play-maker (8.5 APG last season), but it’s harder to justify an investment anywhere close to the maximum for this version of the veteran guard, who will be 35 in August.
Update: Harden reportedly intends to sign a two-year, $70MM contract with the Clippers.

10. Malik Monk, G, Kings
After an up-and-down start to his NBA career, Monk began to show more promise in his final year in Charlotte and his lone season with the Lakers, but he’s taken his game to a new level in Sacramento since 2022. While his three-point percentage has slipped (it was down to 35.0% in 2023/24), Monk has thrived running the Kings’ second-unit offense and playing in closing lineups, averaging a career-high 15.4 points and 5.1 assists in just 26.0 minutes per game this past season. With Monk’s Early Bird rights, Sacramento will be able to go up to about $78MM over four years, but it won’t be a surprise if there’s another team prepared to go even higher than that. Monk is just 26 years old, so his next deal should cover his prime years.
Update: Monk reportedly intends to sign a four-year, $78MM contract with the Kings.

11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, G, Nuggets
Caldwell-Pope has always been valued for his three-and-D skill set, but he bounced around the league a bit before arriving in Denver in 2022 and never secured the sort of lucrative long-term deal that matched up with his on-court contributions. Over the past two seasons with the Nuggets, he has knocked down 41.5% of his three-pointers and served as one of the team’s go-to perimeter defenders, winning his second championship in 2023 (he also won one in 2020 with the Lakers). He’s on the wrong side of 30, but I still expect him to get the largest contract of his career this offseason — whether that will happen in Denver, where the Nuggets might have to surpass the second tax apron to bring him back, is an open question.

12. Miles Bridges, F, Hornets
If we were evaluating Bridges based solely on his on-court performance, he’d rank as high as sixth on this list. But any team considering signing him will have to account for his off-court history, which includes multiple domestic violence allegations — one of those cases was eventually dropped, while the other resulted in Bridges pleading no contest (accepting punishment without formally admitting guilt). It’s possible Bridges will be a model citizen going forward, but a lucrative long-term contract doesn’t come without risk and would be a tough sell to many fans. With that in mind, I’m hesitant to project the kind of $120MM+ contract he appeared on track for during his first foray into free agency in 2022, unless it comes with significant protections for the team.

13. Isaiah Hartenstein, C, Knicks
After an up-and-down first season in New York, Hartenstein had a career year in 2023/24, stepping in as the Knicks’ starting center following Mitchell Robinson‘s ankle injury and playing strong defense while setting new career highs in several categories, including rebounds (8.3), assists (2.5), and steals (1.2) per game. Like Monk, Hartenstein only has Early Bird rights, so the Knicks’ offer can’t exceed approximately $72.5MM over four years. It seemed unlikely just a few months ago that the big man would get anything close to that, but the center market will be relatively sparse, especially if Claxton re-signs with the Nets, and one report suggested a deal in the $80-100MM range isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Hartenstein.

14. Klay Thompson, G/F, Warriors
Prior to the ACL and Achilles tears that sidelined him for two full seasons from 2019-21, Thompson was a career 41.9% three-point shooter and a strong defender. Since the injury, he’s lost a step on defense and his three-point rate has fallen off a little, but he has still never registered a full-season 3PT% below 38.5% and he averaged 17.9 points in just 29.7 minutes per game in 2023/24. If the Warriors aren’t prepared to give the 34-year-old a two- or three- year contract in the range of $25MM per year, I wouldn’t be surprised if a cap-room team seeking a shooter with championship experience (e.g. the Magic, Thunder, or Sixers) swoops in with an aggressive short-term offer.

15. Tyus Jones, G, Wizards
A nine-year veteran, Jones has never been considered a star, but he’s one of the NBA’s most underrated point guards, and he proved in 2023/24 that he can maintain his strong per-minute numbers in a starting role. His .489 FG%, .414 3PT%, 12.0 PPG, and 7.3 APG were all career highs, and no one in the league is better at protecting the ball (his 1.0 turnover per game in ’23/24 was the worst mark of his career). Having held onto him at the trade deadline, the Wizards presumably recognize the value of having Jones run the show on a young, rebuilding roster and will look to re-sign him this summer. But I expect him to draw significant interest from playoff teams at the full mid-level ($12.9MM) and potentially well above that.

16. Tobias Harris, F, Sixers
A five-year, $180MM contract – along with a (perhaps unfair) perception that the Sixers chose him in 2019 over Jimmy Butler – hasn’t always made Harris the most popular player in Philadelphia, but his production over his last five-and-a-half seasons as a 76er has been stellar (17.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, .488/.369/.856 shooting). Although the two sides appear likely to go their separate ways this summer, Harris should have no problem finding another team willing to give him a nice multiyear deal — he’s still a productive, efficient scorer, and while he’s not an elite defender, he has the size to match up with a wide variety of wings and forwards.

17. Patrick Williams, F, Bulls (RFA)
Williams reportedly turned down a four-year rookie scale extension worth about $64MM prior to the start of the 2023/24 season. He was subsequently limited to just 43 games before undergoing season-ending foot surgery, and even prior to the injury he didn’t take a major step forward — his numbers across the board were similar to or slightly down from his ’22/23 marks, and the Bulls constantly had to encourage him to be more aggressive on offense. Williams, who is still just 22 years old, is a career 41.0% three-point shooter and a solid defender. While the Bulls ideally would’ve liked to see more growth from the former No. 4 overall pick across his four NBA seasons, his upside remains tantalizing, so they won’t want to let him get away.
Update: Williams reportedly intends to sign a five-year, $90MM contract with the Bulls.

18. Gary Trent Jr., G, Raptors
The last time Trent was a free agent, in 2021, he signed a three-year contract worth $17MM annually. Since then, he has averaged 16.4 PPG with a .382 3PT% across 207 regular season games, and while his defense is somewhat inconsistent, he’s opportunistic on that end of the court, averaging 1.5 steals per contest across those three seasons. Given that the salary cap has risen by 25% since Trent last reached free agency and he’s still just 25 years old, I have to think he’ll be able to match or exceed his previous deal.

19. Royce O’Neale, F, Suns
O’Neale is a solid but unspectacular wing who can hit an open three-pointer but will never be much of an offensive threat (his career high is 8.8 PPG). He’s in position to cash in this offseason though, because Phoenix has no means to replace him if he walks in free agency. That means the Suns, who hold his Bird rights, may be compelled to offer three or four years to ward off rival suitors. O’Neale has never earned an eight-figure annual salary — I expect that to change beginning in 2024/25.
Update: O’Neale reportedly intends to sign a four-year, $44MM contract with the Suns.

20. Isaac Okoro, F, Cavaliers (RFA)
Okoro, who was drafted one spot behind Williams in the 2020 lottery, finds himself in a similar position as the two forwards enter restricted free agency. Okoro has flashed real three-and-D upside but has never contributed enough offensively to become an above-average starter. This past season was his best, as he bumped his 3PT% up to 39.1%, but he’s still not shooting all that much (3.1 three-point attempts per game) and his dud of a postseason (5.5 PPG on .357/.257/.778 shooting) did nothing to boost his stock heading into the offseason. The 23-year-old probably hasn’t finished developing, so he could draw interest from younger teams looking to put pressure on the Cavs, but a long-term contract worth much more than $13-15MM annually would come with some risk.

21. Caleb Martin, F, Heat
Martin’s numbers (10.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG) don’t jump off the page, but he’s the type of connecting piece that every team could use. The 28-year-old wing can help out in a lot of different ways, including as a shooter (.368 3PT% during his three years in Miami) and switchable defender. His versatility is a major selling point, as he often served as a de facto power forward for the Heat despite fitting better as a two or three. I anticipate Martin being a popular target for contending teams seeking a rotation player with the mid-level exception. Miami, which has tax and apron concerns, could be hard-pressed to keep him if the bidding gets too high.

22. Derrick Jones, F, Mavericks
Jones was on the free agent market for over a month last summer before eventually signing a one-year, minimum-salary deal with Dallas. It’s safe to say that won’t happen again. Jones was the starting small forward for the Western Conference champions, serving as the Mavericks’ go-to perimeter stopper and doing enough on offense to ensure opposing defenses couldn’t ignore him (his 8.6 points and 1.1 made three-pointers per game were career highs, as was his .343 3PT%). The Mavs will only hold his Non-Bird rights, preventing them from offering more a salary worth more than 20% above Jones’ minimum unless they use another exception, such as the mid-level or bi-annual.

23. Isaiah Joe, G, Thunder
The Thunder could have exercised an extremely team-friendly option worth about $2.16MM on Joe in order to have him under contract at a bargain price for 2024/25. Instead, they declined that option to make him a free agent. While Joe will technically be unrestricted, it’s a safe bet that Oklahoma City knows what it will take to re-sign him and intends to give him that deal after using the rest of its cap room on other moves. Since they hold his Early Bird rights, OKC can go up to an estimated $56MM+ over four years for Joe. It might take close to that amount for a player who has made 41.2% of his three-pointers and played solid defense in the Thunder’s rotation for the past two seasons.

24. Buddy Hield, G, Sixers
Hield is one of the most prolific shooters in NBA history — he ranks 22nd on the league’s all-time list of made three-pointers and should be knocking on the door of the top 15 by the end of next season. As impressive as his shooting numbers are, however, his game doesn’t really stand out in many other areas. After seven seasons without a postseason appearance, Hield got an opportunity to play for two playoff teams this season, but his scoring average in both Indiana and Philadelphia was well below his career rate. It also doesn’t reflect well on him that he was basically dumped for non-rotation players and draft picks by the Pacers, then barely saw the court in the Sixers’ first-round series vs. New York. His shooting will keep getting him paid, but I’m skeptical that he’ll match his previous four-year, $86MM contract (which included another $20MM in incentives).

25. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Pelicans
Valanciunas is one of the NBA’s best rebounders and is a talented scorer around the basket and out to the mid-range. But the veteran center hasn’t been able to reliably extend his jump shot out beyond the arc, and he’s never been athletic enough to provide elite rim protection or to defend out to the perimeter, limiting his value to certain teams and in certain matchups. Valanciunas has been paid between $14-17MM for each of the past eight seasons and a short-term deal on the lower end of that range would be fair, though if he doesn’t re-sign with the Pelicans, the market may force him to take a pay cut.

26. Simone Fontecchio, F, Pistons (RFA)
One of two wings Detroit acquired at the trade deadline as potential keepers (Quentin Grimes was the other), Fontecchio impressed in his first 16 games as a Piston, averaging 15.4 PPG on .479/.426/.846 shooting for his new team after starting 34 of 50 games earlier in the season for the Jazz. For someone with just two NBA seasons under his belt, the Italian forward is older than you’d think (29 in December) due to a lengthy pre-NBA run overseas, but he’s still very much in his prime and his extensive international experience could actually be a point in his favor for a young Pistons team seeking stability. An annual salary of $10MM+ could be attainable for Fontecchio.

27. Obi Toppin, F, Pacers (RFA)
A starter until Christmas, Toppin was moved to the second unit in an effort to improve the Pacers’ defense, then continued to come off the bench after the team traded for Siakam. Still, it was a career year for the former lottery pick, who cracked double-digit scoring (10.3 PPG) for the first time while bumping his shooting efficiency to new heights (.573 FG%, .403 3PT%). Toppin, who remained a reliable rotation piece throughout three playoff series, may not project as a starter long-term, but he looks like at least a high-level reserve for the foreseeable future.
Update: Toppin reportedly intends to sign a four-year, $60MM contract with the Pacers.

28. De’Anthony Melton, G, Sixers
Melton is one of the league’s most underrated players, a versatile guard who can capably defend multiple positions, knock down three-pointers, set up teammates, and take care of the ball. However, a back injury sidelined him for nearly the entire second half of the season, muddying his value ahead of unrestricted free agency this summer. If he had stayed healthy, I would’ve viewed Melton as a lock to earn at least the full mid-level, but any team looking to sign him will want to check out his medicals before committing.

29. Luke Kennard, G, Grizzlies
Memphis declined Kennard’s $14.8MM team option for tax-related reasons, but he shouldn’t have to take a major pay cut in free agency. One of the NBA’s best three-point shooters, the 28-year-old wing has made at least 44.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc in each of the past four seasons, including 45.0% in 2023/24. He’s also a decent secondary play-maker on offense, with 3.5 assists in 25.6 minutes per game this past season. Kennard isn’t a great defender, which will cap his potential earnings, but you can’t do much better if you’re looking for a shooter.

30. Kyle Anderson, F, Timberwolves
Anderson’s inconsistent three-point shot makes him an awkward fit alongside other players who don’t space the floor, but he’s a solid, switchable defender, a good secondary ball-handler, and a heady player who could have a role on any contender. He signed a two-year, $18MM contract in 2022 and is still just 30 years old, so he should be able to negotiate a similar contract or something even more lucrative. A return to Minnesota may not be in the cards though, given the rising cost of the Timberwolves’ roster, which projects to be in second-apron territory even without a new deal for Anderson.

31. Kelly Oubre, F, Sixers
Oubre’s value is hard to pin down. A year ago, after averaging an inefficient 20+ points per game with the Hornets, he accepted a minimum-salary contract. His shooting percentages in 2023/24 (including a .535 TS%) looked nearly identical to his ’22/23 marks (.534 TS%), and while playing an important role on a good team did more for his reputation than piling up counting stats on a bad team did, the Sixers were better when he was off the court (+6.9 net rating) than when he was on it (+0.1). Oubre has some appeal as a wing with size who can score and hold his own defensively, but I’m not totally convinced he’ll have teams beating down his door eager to give him a big raise.

32. Gary Harris, G, Magic
There’s no doubt that Denver ultimately came out ahead in 2021’s Aaron Gordon trade, but Harris – who was sent from the Nuggets to the Magic in that deal – has been a quietly effective role player since arriving in Orlando, knocking down 39.2% of his three-point attempts and starting 118 of 183 games over three-and-a-half seasons. Harris, who is still just 29 years old, hasn’t made less than $13MM in a season since 2017/18, though that streak isn’t a lock to continue — his 6.9 points and 24.0 minutes per game were his lowest averages since his rookie year.

33. Naji Marshall, F, Pelicans
A former undrafted free agent, Marshall is a valuable glue guy whose improving three-point shot (38.7% in 2023/24) would boost his value in free agency if teams believe that success is sustainable. The Pelicans had a +8.7 net rating when Marshall was on the court during the regular season (+2.5 when he sat) and that trend continued in the play-in tournament, where he was a team-high +17 in New Orleans’ play-in win over Sacramento. He was also one of the few Pelicans who looked good in a four-game sweep at the hands of Oklahoma City, knocking down 40.% of his threes as a regular rotation player during that series.

34. Malik Beasley, G/F, Bucks
Beasley started 77 games for one of the East’s top three regular season teams and converted 41.3% of his three-point tries, increasing his career mark to 38.5% on a high volume (5.9 attempts per game). The 27-year-old isn’t a great defender, but a team that needs floor spacing should be willing to live with that, especially if the price is closer to $10MM than $20MM per year.

35. Monte Morris, G, Timberwolves
Health issues slowed down Morris during the 2023/24 season, limiting him to 33 regular season games and causing his numbers to crater across the board. But he had been one of the NBA’s best backup point guards and a capable fill-in starter before that, having averaged 10.5 points and 4.0 assists per game on .480/.392/.829 shooting for Denver and Washington from 2018-23. Assuming he’s back to 100% for the fall, Morris should be a safe investment for a team seeking a player capable of leading its second unit.

36. Haywood Highsmith, G/F, Heat
Highsmith’s 6’7″ frame and seven-foot wingspan allow him to match up with a wide range of opposing scorers. And while his defense is really his calling card, his efforts to become more of an offensive threat have paid off, with his three-point percentage increasing in each of his NBA seasons (it was up to 39.6% this past year). The 27-year-old appears to be the latest in a long line of developmental success stories for the Heat. Now the question is whether Miami, which is facing a bit of a cap crunch, will be able to keep him or if he’ll get a more appealing offer from a rival suitor.

37. Precious Achiuwa, F/C, Knicks
Consistency has been an issue for Achiuwa, but he was given a chance to play meaningful minutes on an injury-plagued roster in New York and held his own against bigger frontcourt players, averaging 7.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 24.2 minutes per game with the Knicks. Achiuwa is an intriguing small-ball center, since he’s athletic enough to switch onto quicker players. We’ll see how his market develops, since he won’t be the Knicks’ highest priority in free agency.

38. Moritz Wagner, C, Magic
Orlando turned down Wagner’s $8MM team option, but that was more a procedural move to maximize the club’s available cap space than a reflection of his value. While he’s not the star his brother Franz Wagner is, Moritz has become a reliable rotation center in Orlando. He has averaged double-digit points in each of the past two seasons, including a career-high 10.9 PPG on a career-best 60.1% shooting percentage in just 17.7 MPG in 2023/24. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Wagner ends up re-signing with the Magic on a deal that pays him around the same amount as the option the team declined.

39. Aaron Wiggins, G, Thunder (RFA)
Wiggins has seen his minutes per game decline in each of the past three seasons through no fault of his own. The Thunder’s roster has gotten much deeper during that time, creating less playing time for non-stars like Wiggins, but his per-minutes numbers and shooting percentages have markedly improved in each of his NBA seasons so far — he posted an impressive .562/.492/.789 shooting line in 2023/24. Oklahoma City declined his team-friendly option to make him a restricted free agent and will presumably re-sign him to a longer-term deal after using up its cap room.

40. Goga Bitadze, C, Magic
It’s worth reiterating that the market for centers is relatively weak this summer. That means a player like Bitadze – who is entering his age-25 season, made 33 starts for a playoff team, and hit a career-high 60.3% of his field goals while blocking 1.2 shots in just 15.4 minutes per game – could be a popular target once the top two or three big men are off the board. The Magic are in a good spot to re-sign Bitadze if they want to, since his cap hold is only about $2MM. Orlando can keep that hold on its books, use up all its remaining cap room, then go over the cap to sign him for more than $2MM.

41. Nicolas Batum, F, Sixers
After signing a five-year, $120MM contract in 2016, Batum was considered overpaid and overrated, but the pendulum has swung back the other way in recent years as he has earned between $8-12MM per season. A jack-of-all-trades, Batum can handle the ball, knock down three-pointers, and use his 6’8″ frame effectively on defense. He’ll turn 36 in December and there were rumors a year ago that he might consider retirement after the Paris Olympics, but if he wants to continue his career, the French forward will continue to draw interest from contenders.

42. Andre Drummond, C, Bulls
Like Batum, Drummond is a player who is viewed more favorably now that he’s not making nearly as much money. A former two-time All-Star, Drummond has been negatively impacted by the game’s faster pace and the focus on outside shooting. He now finds himself cast as more of a backup or situational player than a starting center, but he’s one of the league’s best backups. No one rebounds like Drummond, who averaged an eye-popping 9.0 boards in just 17.9 minutes per game last season, and he’s an effective rim-runner in the pick and roll. He has gone from maximum-salary player to minimum-salary player in recent years, but probably deserves a bit of a pay bump after a solid couple seasons in Chicago, where he didn’t complain about playing second fiddle to Nikola Vucevic.

43. Markelle Fultz, G, Magic
Few free agents in the 2024 class are trickier to get a handle on than Fultz, a former No. 1 overall pick who is still just 26 years old. Injuries have limited him to 234 total regular season games since he was drafted in 2017, but his performance in 2022/23 as Orlando’s starting point guard was legitimately impressive (14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, .514 FG%). Unfortunately, he took a step back this past season in terms of both availability and production, and between his injury history and his shortcomings as a shooter, it’s unclear how popular he’ll be on the open market. His pedigree as a top prospect and his ability to make a defensive impact are both points in his favor.

44. Jalen Smith, F/C, Pacers
Smith was one of the beneficiaries of the Pacers’ high-flying offense led by Tyrese Haliburton, setting new career highs in points per game (9.9), field-goal percentage (59.2%), and three-point percentage (42.4%). Smith holds a $5.4MM player option for 2024/25, but is rumored to be leaning toward opting out. He shouldn’t necessarily expect a significant raise on that option salary, but he shouldn’t have much trouble getting another multiyear deal in about the same range.

45. Saddiq Bey, F, Hawks
Even before Bey’s season ended early due to torn ACL, it was an up-and-down year for the fourth-year forward, whose three-point percentage was an ugly 31.6% on 5.7 attempts per night and whose performance on defense was inconsistent. That ACL injury, which occurred in March, further complicates his free agency, since there’s a good chance he’ll miss most or all of the 2024/25 season. Bey’s qualifying offer is worth nearly $8.5MM, and a worst-case scenario for the Hawks would be for him to accept that QO, spend all of ’24/25 rehabbing, then sign elsewhere next summer as an unrestricted free agent. If he’s still in Atlanta’s long-term plans, the Hawks may look to negotiate a multiyear deal before other clubs get a chance to talk to him.

46. Cedi Osman, F, Spurs
After six seasons in Cleveland, Osman essentially served as salary-matching fodder in the sign-and-trade deal that sent Max Strus to the Cavaliers last July, but he survived a preseason roster crunch in San Antonio and played regular minutes all season for the Spurs, making a career-high 38.9% of his shots from beyond the arc. At age 29, Osman is still in his prime and can clearly continue to be an NBA rotation player, but it remains to be seen how robust his market will be after he spent the year playing for a lottery team.

47. Xavier Tillman, C, Celtics
Although Tillman’s playing time dropped off following the midseason trade that sent him from Memphis to Boston, I don’t think the new situation damaged his stock entering unrestricted free agency. Even if he didn’t play a major role for the Celtics, the fact that the 2024 champions gave up assets to acquire him and turned to him a few times during their title run reflects favorably on Tillman. Still just 25 years old, the big man is a reliable defender in the middle and is playoff-tested, having made 12 starts across three postseasons in Memphis even before he joined the C’s.

48. Eric Gordon, G, Suns
Gordon could have gotten more than the veteran’s minimum as a free agent a year ago, but knew he’d play a major role and have a chance to contend in Phoenix, so he accepted a two-year minimum deal from the Suns that included a second-year player option. Sometimes veterans can be pigeonholed as minimum-salary players after they first settle for that amount. Still, Gordon played well enough in 2023/24 (11.0 PPG, .378 3PT%) that he could probably do a bit better on the open market if he opts out, even at age 35.

49. Gordon Hayward, F, Hornets
Even though the Hornets finished 36 games behind the Thunder in the standings, Hayward might have preferred to simply finish the season in Charlotte, where he was starting and seemed comfortable in his role. A trade to Oklahoma City seemingly put the veteran forward in a position to play an important complementary role on a young upstart contender, but the fit was awkward from the beginning, and when the playoffs got underway, the 34-year-old was out of the Thunder’s rotation. Hayward scored a grand total of 0 points in 46 postseason minutes, not exactly making a convincing case for one more big contract.

50. Max Christie, G, Lakers (RFA)
There are many veterans with far more accomplishments on their résumés – and more value in the short term – than Christie, but many of those vets will end up signing for the minimum. I don’t think that will be the case for Christie, who is 21 years old and has flashed some real promise in his modest role for the Lakers. I wouldn’t expect him to get the same kind of three-year, $31MM contract Talen Horton-Tucker got when he reached restricted free agency entering his age-21 season three years ago, but Miles McBride‘s three-year, $13MM extension from this past December seems like a fair point of reference for the Lakers guard.
Update: Christie reportedly intends to sign a four-year, $32MM contract with the Lakers.

Bumped out of the top 50 for new additions:

51. Taurean Prince, F, Lakers
Coming into the 2023/24 season, Prince had been a reserve for three straight years, so it came as a bit of a surprise that he started 49 games for the Lakers, who seemingly had better options for that spot. But the fact that he ended up in the starting five so often speaks to the veteran forward’s ability to earn the trust of his head coach. Prince would be better cast as a seventh or eighth man who can play a three-and-D role in the second unit. He made $4.5MM last season and could be in line for a modest raise.

52. Spencer Dinwiddie, G, Lakers
Dinwiddie signed a three-year, $54MM contract with the Wizards in 2021, then spent the those three years on five different teams. He was traded to Dallas in 2022, Brooklyn in 2023, and Toronto in 2024 before being cut by the Raptors and signing with the Lakers. The veteran point guard is still just 31 years old and is only one year removed from averaging 17.3 points and 6.5 assists per game across 79 contests for the Mavericks and Nets in ’22/23. However, his production and efficiency declined sharply this past season. After finishing the year on a minimum-salary contract in Los Angeles, will he be relegated to the vet-minimum market going forward, or will there be a team willing to bet on a bounce-back and offer him a little more than that?

Pre-free agency updates:

June 24: Removed Reggie Jackson (No. 46) after he exercised his player option. Added Spencer Dinwiddie.
June 30: Removed D’Angelo Russell (No. 21) and Russell Westbrook (No. 31) after they exercised their player options. Added Isaiah Joe, Luke Kennard, Moritz Wagner, and Aaron Wiggins after their team options were declined. Made a few minor rankings changes.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2024 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

After spending a full decade alternately mired in mediocrity (in the good years) or dwelling in the NBA’s cellar (in the bad), the Magic had a breakthrough in 2023/24.

Orlando’s 47-35 record was the team’s best mark since Dwight Howard was on the roster (2010/11), and while the club didn’t win a playoff series, its three first-round wins vs. Cleveland topped its combined postseason win total (two) across the previous 11 years. It was the second straight year in which the Magic made major strides — after winning just 22 games in 2021/22, they boosted that total to 34 in ’22/23 and 47 this past season.

The good news for the Magic is that their young core is largely responsible for that surge up the standings. Orlando’s top three scorers in 2023/24 were Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs, all of whom will still be on their team-friendly rookie scale contracts in ’24/25. The franchise is in position to keep those players under team control for years to come.

The bad news? Well, “bad” may be an overstatement, but Wagner and Suggs are due for rookie scale extensions this offseason, with Banchero becoming eligible for a rookie scale extension of his own in 2025. That means the young core will be getting a lot more expensive over the next couple years, and the front office still needs more talent to become a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic have managed their books well – no one made more than $17.4MM last season and there’s no guaranteed money on the cap beyond 2026 – so they’re in position to comfortably extend those cornerstone players. But the rising cost of the roster going forward means the 2024 offseason will be a critical opportunity for the Magic to continue making meaningful upgrades while they still have cap room available to do so.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan

Let’s start with the Magic’s cap outlook. They only have about $66MM on their books for the seven players on guaranteed contracts for 2024/25, but we can probably add Jonathan Isaac‘s $17.4MM non-guaranteed salary to that total.

Although Isaac – who appeared in just 11 games across the three previous seasons for health reasons – didn’t play big minutes in 2023/24, he suited up for 58 games and provided a reminder in his limited role (15.8 MPG) of why he was considered a future Defensive Player of the Year contender early in his NBA career. I can’t see him being waived, given the impact he’s capable of making on defense even as a part-timer.

Adding Isaac’s salary and a $3.6MM cap hold for Orlando’s first-round pick (No. 18) brings us to just over $87MM. Throw in three minimum-salary cap holds to get to 12 roster spots and the Magic end up with about $50MM in potential cap room.

Now, it’s important to clarify that Orlando would have to make certain sacrifices to fully take advantage of that $50MM. Joe Ingles ($11MM) and Moritz Wagner ($8MM) have team options; Caleb Houstan has a non-guaranteed salary ($2MM); and the Magic may want to try to re-sign free agents like Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Goga Bitadze, all of whom would have cap holds to account for (ranging from $25.5MM for Fultz to just $2.1MM for Bitadze).

While turning down those options and renouncing all those free agents would get the Magic to $50MM in room, I’m skeptical they’ll go that route, given how inclined they’ve been in recent years to retain their own players.

But let’s say the team guarantees Houston’s salary, brings back one (not both) of Fultz or Harris for a deal in the range of the full mid-level ($12-13MM), declines the Ingles and Wagner options in the hopes of bringing them back for the veteran’s minimum and $8MM, respectively, and reaches a new agreement with Bitadze. That could still leave Orlando with upwards of $36-37MM in cap room to use, since Houston’s salary and Bitadze’s cap hold are so modest and Wagner and Ingles could be re-signed after the room is used up.

This is a roundabout way of saying that even if the Magic opt for continuity, they should still be in position to open up enough cap room to splurge on at least one starter-caliber player, and perhaps multiple rotation pieces.

Orlando has been mentioned as a possible Paul George landing spot, but that feels like a long shot. I expect George’s decision to ultimately come down to the Clippers and Sixers. The Magic have also been linked to Klay Thompson, Malik Monk, and D’Angelo Russell, all of whom look to me like much more plausible targets.

As talented offensively as both Banchero and Wagner are, neither of them has been a consistent threat from beyond the three-point line (Wagner was solid in his first two seasons but plummeted to 28.1% in ’23/24), which means the Magic would ideally surround them with two or three shooters. Suggs (39.7%) and Wendell Carter (37.4%) set new career highs in three-point percentage this past season, but Orlando’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with marksmen. Adding shooting will be the top priority this summer for a team that ranked dead last among 30 NBA teams in three-pointers made per game (11.0) in 2023/24.

Thompson, Monk, and Russell aren’t perfect players. Thompson has lost a step since his prime years due to his age (34) and a pair of major leg injuries; Monk’s three-point percentage has dropped over the past couple seasons and was all the way down to 35.0% in 2023/24; and Russell is a subpar defender whose weaknesses have been exposed in the last two postseasons.

Still, there are reasons to like all three fits. Thompson is one of the best shooters in NBA history and would bring championship experience to a relatively young team. Monk would add a new level of play-making to the Magic’s backcourt and would make them less reliant on Banchero and Wagner offensively. Russell is a talented scorer, a solid distributor, and – most importantly – an elite shooter (.415 3PT% on 7.2 attempts per game in ’23/24). Any of those three players would provide some offensive punch for an unbalanced Magic team that ranked third in defensive rating and 22nd in offensive rating.

Of the three, Thompson looks to me like the most intriguing fit, assuming he’s truly willing to leave Golden State. The Magic could potentially offer him an extremely lucrative short-term deal using their cap room, overpaying him for the next two seasons and then having his contract come off the books when he’s 36 and when Banchero’s next contract is about to take effect.

If Orlando strikes out on guys like Thompson and Monk, a few other free agents I view as possible fits include Tobias Harris, Gary Trent, and Buddy Hield. Again, given how good their defense already is, the Magic don’t necessarily need to be targeting two-way impact players like OG Anunoby or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They can afford to add a below-average defender if the trade-off on offense is strong enough.

If free agency doesn’t yield the type of upgrade the Magic are looking for, turning to the trade market would be a viable option. Orlando controls all of its future first-round picks, as well as the Nuggets’ 2025 first-rounder (top-five protected), so the club could put together a strong offer that includes multiple valuable draft assets without mortgaging its future at all.

While determining how the Magic will use their cap room is a more fun subject for speculation, it’s worth stressing that trying to workout extensions for Wagner and Suggs will also be a crucial part of the team’s offseason. Those negotiations could be tricky — both Wagner and Suggs are valuable assets, but neither is the sort of player who is a slam dunk for a maximum-salary offer, so they won’t necessarily get done early in July like Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball did a year ago.

Of the two players, Wagner is closer to max-worthy, and it wouldn’t shock me if Orlando ultimately puts that offer on the table for him. Something that comes in a little below the max (say, $175MM over five years) isn’t out of the realm of possibility either. Suggs likely won’t be in line for that sort of payday, but he substantially improved his value by making an All-Defensive team and raising his shooting percentages in year three. I could see the former No. 4 overall pick getting into the nine figures (ie. $100MM+) on a long-term extension.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Cole Anthony ($12,900,000)
Paolo Banchero ($12,160,800)
Wendell Carter ($11,950,000)
Jalen Suggs ($9,188,385)
Anthony Black ($7,607,760)
Franz Wagner ($7,007,092)
Jett Howard ($5,278,320)
Total: $66,092,357

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jonathan Isaac ($17,400,000)
Caleb Houstan ($2,019,699)
- Houstan’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30.
Total: $19,419,699

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

Joe Ingles ($11,000,000): Non-Bird rights
Moritz Wagner ($8,000,000): Bird rights
Total: $19,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

Chuma Okeke ($7,399,732 qualifying offer / $15,800,139 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $15,800,139

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Magic, Harris’ qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). Schofield is no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract and would also have a qualifying offer worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 18 overall pick ($3,639,120 cap hold)
No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,639,120

Extension-Eligible Players

Wendell Carter (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of October 1.
Markelle Fultz (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Gary Harris (veteran)
- Extension-eligible on June 30 (one day only).
Caleb Houstan (veteran)
Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
Jalen Suggs (rookie scale)
Franz Wagner (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Markelle Fultz ($25,500,000 cap hold): Bird rights
Gary Harris ($19,500,000 cap hold): Bird rights
Goga Bitadze ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $47,093,637

Other Cap Holds

Michael Carter-Williams ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Sindarius Thornwell ($1,867,722 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,961,359

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Magic project to operate under the cap.

Room exception: $8,006,000

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

June 15th, 2024 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

It has now been five years since word broke in the middle of an early-July night that Kawhi Leonard, fresh off a championship run in Toronto, would be signing with the Clippers and would be joined by Paul George, who was being traded from Oklahoma City to Los Angeles.

The Clippers’ results across those five years have been solid relative to the team’s dismal overall track record — three of the top six winning percentages in the franchise’s 54-year history have come in the past five seasons. But it has been a disappointing stretch on the whole, given the championship aspirations the club has had since the two L.A. natives returned home in 2019.

The Clippers have won just three playoff series with Leonard and George on the roster, making it beyond the first round only once, in 2021. Of course, making deep postseason runs is a challenge when one or both of your stars aren’t available. Leonard and George appeared in all 13 Clippers playoff games in 2020, but since then, at least one of them has missed some or all of every postseason.

Leonard tore his ACL during the 2021 playoffs, which cost him the entire following season and the 2022 postseason too. A knee sprain sidelined George for the 2023 playoffs, while Leonard was able to suit up for just two of five first-round games. This past spring, George was healthy, but Leonard was available for just two of six first-round contests vs. Dallas, and was hampered by a knee issue when he did play.

Leonard’s and George’s injury problems, which have affected their availability during the regular season as well, have put a cap on what the Clippers are able to accomplish. But even if both players – and former MVPs James Harden and Russell Westbrook – were fully healthy during this year’s postseason, it’s unclear whether this roster had legitimate championship upside.

As good as those four guys (especially Leonard and George) still are when they’re performing at the peak of their powers, they’re not at the same level they were in their respective primes. The youngest player of the quartet, Leonard, will be 33 later this month. Kawhi is also the only one under contract for next season, with George and Westbrook holding player options for 2024/25 while Harden is headed for unrestricted free agency.

As they prepare to step out from the shadow of their more accomplished Crypto.com Arena co-tenants and move into their extravagant new Inglewood arena, the Clippers will want to do all they can to keep their championship window cracked open. Simply running it back with a roster that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2021 doesn’t feel satisfactory, but upgrading this group won’t be easy, given the limited resources the front office will have at its disposal.

The Clippers’ Offseason Plan

After extending Leonard in January and head coach Tyronn Lue, the Clippers will be focused in the coming weeks on new deals for George, Harden, and Westbrook.

Since Leonard agreed to a three-year, $152MM deal that was below his maximum in terms of both years and dollars (he could’ve gotten four years and $221MM), there has been a belief that the Clippers wanted to reach a similar agreement with George, who has had made the exact same salary as Kawhi in each of the past three seasons. But if George were willing to sign for the same amount as Leonard, that deal would likely already be done, which suggests he’s either pushing for a maximum salary (approximately $160MM over three years) or a fourth year — or both.

If they’re determined to keep him, the Clippers probably can’t afford to get too coy with the George negotiations, since the Sixers are believed to have made the star forward their No. 1 target and have more than enough cap room to offer him up to approximately $212MM over four years.

Will the Clippers tack on that fourth year? If so, they could top Philadelphia’s offer by about $9MM in total (they can’t offer a fifth year due to the Over-38 rule), but maybe the idea of playing with two younger stars (Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey) in a less competitive Eastern Conference appeals to George. While Embiid’s injury history has been viewed as a possible red flag for premier free agents who are considering the Sixers, it doesn’t look all that bad when stacked up next to Leonard’s.

Los Angeles’ ability to retain George could have an impact on what the team is willing to offer Harden, since bringing back both players would almost certainly push the Clippers’ team salary above the second tax apron, whereas just retaining one likely wouldn’t.

When Harden accepted a two-year, $68.6MM deal from the Sixers in 2022, it was viewed as a “hometown” discount, since he turned down a $47MM+ player option to sign that contract. But if Harden is expecting to make up the money he feels he gave up two years ago, he may be in for a rude awakening. Unlike George, Harden doesn’t seem to have another suitor looming as a threat to push his price tag higher (he didn’t last summer either, which is one reason why he accepted his second-year player option with Philadelphia instead of testing free agency).

The Clippers would likely be more aggressive with their offer for Harden if George walks, but if PG13 is in the fold, how high will L.A. go? Maybe $60MM over two years? $75MM over three? Harden is still a dynamic scorer and play-maker, but he’s entering his age-35 season and isn’t the same player he was in his prime, so the club will have to be careful about the later seasons of any multiyear deal. At the same time, we saw how quickly things turned sour in Philadelphia when Harden believed he wasn’t being properly valued, so the Clips won’t want to low-ball him.

Westbrook’s case isn’t any simpler. The 35-year-old is coming off a $3.8MM salary and will presumably decline his $4MM player option now that the Clippers hold his Early Bird rights and can offer him the sort of raise they couldn’t a year ago. But Westbrook was somewhat redundant on this roster following the acquisition of Harden, so assuming Harden returns, how enthusiastic will the Clippers be about giving Westbrook that raise? There are probably better fits for that roster spot, and from Westbrook’s perspective, there may be better fits around the NBA for his skill set.

Having taken a look at these three players’ situations, I should circle back and clarify one point — Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is the richest team owner in North American professional sports. If Lawrence Frank and the front office convince him that bringing back George, Harden, and Westbrook at any cost is the right move from the franchise, I can’t imagine Ballmer would hesitate to sign the necessary checks.

But giving those three players lucrative new contracts may not be in the Clippers’ best interests from a roster-building perspective, both because it would limit their options to address the rest of the roster and because the Harden/Westbrook fit was far from seamless. They’ll have to be wary about being dragged into a bidding war for any of those three FAs.

Evaluating the Clippers’ options to fill out the rest of the roster hinges in large part on what happens with their stars, since having George on the books for $49MM+ or having him leave for nothing would put the club in two very different positions from both a talent and financial perspective. Ditto for Harden.

If we assume George and Harden return, the Clippers would only be able to offer minimum-salary contracts to free agent targets and wouldn’t be able to aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they send out in a trade. They also wouldn’t be able to trade cash, and most of their future first-round picks are tied up due to previous deals. They could move their 2030 first-rounder and a 2031 swap, as well as their 2030 and 2031 second-rounders.

Norman Powell is one of the NBA’s most underrated shooters, having made 42.3% of 4.9 attempts per game since joining the Clippers. The floor spacing he provides is important, so I expect he’ll return. Ivica Zubac and Terance Mann are valuable role players at their current price point (around $11MM) and should remain in L.A. too.

On the other hand, P.J. Tucker, who will pick up a player option that’s also in the neighborhood of $11MM, is no longer a valuable asset at age 39. The Clippers will presumably explore moving him, but even attaching a first-round pick to his expiring deal might not bring back a high-level rotation player, since trade partners will be seeking draft compensation simply to take on Tucker’s unwanted contract.

Bones Hyland wasn’t a regular part of the Clippers’ rotation during his first full season with the club, but could take on a larger role if Westbrook departs. If Westbrook remains in L.A., Hyland could become a trade candidate.

Backup centers Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis will be free agents and the Clippers probably don’t need to re-sign both guys — only one was in the rotation at the time for most of 2023/24. Since Los Angeles holds Plumlee’s Bird rights, he could be brought back at a higher salary, which could end up being useful for trade purposes. But if the Clippers aren’t in position to aggregate salaries anytime soon, it might make more sense to save some money and re-sign whichever big man is willing to return for the veteran’s minimum.

From there, the Clippers could head out onto the free agent market and see which other players might be willing to accept minimum deals to play for a potential contender in Los Angeles.

If George doesn’t return, the Clippers would be in position to potentially operate below the first tax apron, which would create new transaction opportunities for the front office — the mid-level ($12.9MM) and bi-annual ($4.7MM) exceptions would be available, and the team would have far more flexibility in trades, including the ability to aggregate salaries and take back more salary than is sent out.

Of course, with no cap room available and only one tradable future first-round pick on hand, none of those options would be nearly enough to acquire a player capable of replacing George on his own.

Is there a scenario in which a roster built around Leonard and Harden – with a complementary supporting cast and some newfound financial flexibility – can have more playoff success than what the Clippers have accomplished in recent years? Maybe, but it would take some luck (and would require Kawhi actually being available in the playoffs). I don’t think that’s the direction the organization wants to go.

While the consensus among NBA fans is that the Clippers have missed their chance to capitalize on the Leonard/George years, management can take some solace in the fact that the team was very good this season when Leonard, George, and Harden all played together (44-24, per ESPN) and lost in the playoffs to a Dallas team that eventually won the West. Who knows what might’ve happened if Kawhi was operating at full strength.

During his end-of-season remarks to reporters, Frank addressed the team’s inability to stay healthy in the postseason by stating, “Just because it’s happened [four straight seasons] doesn’t mean it’s always going to happen next year.” While that may come off as naively positive spin, it’s easy to see – after running through the Clippers’ offseason options, or lack thereof – why attempting to stave off the injury bug may be the team’s best hope for short-term success.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Kawhi Leonard ($49,350,000)
- Leonard’s cap hit is a tentative figure based on 35% of a projected $141MM cap.
Norman Powell ($19,241,379)
Ivica Zubac ($11,743,210)
Terance Mann ($11,423,077)
Bones Hyland ($4,158,439)
Amir Coffey ($3,938,271)
Kobe Brown ($2,533,920)
Total: $102,388,296

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jordan Miller (two-way)

Dead/Retained Salary

Joshua Primo ($1,000,000)
Total: $1,000,000

Player Options

Paul George ($48,787,676): Bird rights
P.J. Tucker ($11,539,000): Early Bird rights
Russell Westbrook ($4,027,525): Early Bird rights
Total: $64,354,201

Team Options

Kai Jones ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
- Note: Jones salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Brandon Boston ($2,368,944 qualifying offer / $2,368,944 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $2,368,944

Two-Way Free Agents

Moussa Diabate: Early Bird rights
Xavier Moon: Bird rights

Note: Because they have finished each of the past two seasons on two-way contracts with the Clippers, the qualifying offers for Diabate and Moon would be worth their minimum salaries (projected to be $2,093,637 for Diabate and $2,168,944 for Moon). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

Brandon Boston (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Amir Coffey (veteran)
Paul George (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his player option is exercised).
Bones Hyland (rookie scale)
Terance Mann (veteran)
Norman Powell (veteran)
P.J. Tucker (veteran)
- Player option must be exercised.
Ivica Zubac (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

James Harden ($49,350,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Harden’s cap hold will be his maximum salary (35% of the 2024/25 cap).
Mason Plumlee ($9,500,000 cap hold): Bird rights
Daniel Theis ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $60,943,637

Other Cap Holds

Rodney Hood ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: The cap hold for Hood is on the Clippers’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Clippers project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or their trade exception worth $559,782. If they move below the second apron, they would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate below both aprons, they could access the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,859,000), the bi-annual exception ($4,681,0001), and their trade exception.

None

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

June 14th, 2024 at 2:51pm CST by Rory Maher

In 2022/23, the Lakers started the season 2-10. Just before the February trade deadline, they were 25-31. After making a few trades, they went 18-8 to close the regular season. A play-in victory over Minnesota secured the West’s No. 7 seed.

After defeating the shorthanded Grizzlies in the first round in six games, the Lakers took out the Warriors — the defending champions at that point — in the second round in another six-game series. However, they were swept in the conference finals by the Nuggets, who went on to win their first title in 2023.

Head of basketball Rob Pelinka talked up continuity last offseason, ultimately re-signing Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell and extending Jarred Vanderbilt.

One significant roster change was letting Dennis Schröder walk in free agency, essentially replacing him by signing Gabe Vincent. Due to a knee injury, Vincent was limited to just 11 games and largely struggled in the time he was on the court.

L.A. gave out three minimum-salary one-plus-one (one-year with a player option for year two) deals to Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish. The results were underwhelming. To this point, only Wood has made a determination on his player option for ’24/25, opting in and securing $3MM.

Last summer, the Lakers used their bi-annual exception to sign Taurean Prince, who shot 39.6% from three-point range in his 78 regular season appearances, including 49 starts (27.0 minutes per contest). Prince’s outsized role was a source of external consternation from fans and was reportedly an issue internally as well, perhaps playing a factor in Darvin Ham getting fired as head coach.

Prince is one of only two unrestricted free agents for L.A. in 2024, along with Spencer Dinwiddie, a late-season buyout addition. For what it’s worth, both Prince and Dinwiddie have expressed a desire to return — it remains to be seen if that feeling is mutual.

In ’23/24, Anthony Davis played a career-high 76 games and LeBron James played 71, his most in six years. While they were successful in the minutes their two stars played, the Lakers did not play well at all when James and Davis were off the court. Their overall net rating of +0.6 ranked 19th in the league, and they were 15th in offense and 17th in defense — the definition of mediocre.

At the end of January, the Lakers were just 24-25. Another late-season surge saw them finish 23-10 for an overall mark of 47-35. Once again, the L.A. won its first play-in game — this time over New Orleans — to claim the West’s No. 7 seed.

Despite leading for the majority of the minutes in the series, the Lakers were vanquished again by the Nuggets, losing their first-round series in five games.

As previously noted, Ham was let go last month, so the Lakers have been searching for a new head coach. UConn’s Dan Hurley, winner of back-to-back NCAA titles, emerged as a surprising frontrunner last week, but ultimately stayed in college with the Huskies. J.J. Redick, the presumed favorite for the job before Hurley, will formally interview for the position this weekend, per ESPN.

The ongoing search is drawing all the headlines right now. It’s a huge market, it’s the Lakers, and they have the league’s most famous and accomplished current player. It’s only natural. But what Pelinka will be able to do with the roster is the bigger and more pressing concern. The Western Conference is only going to get more competitive next season, with teams like Memphis, Houston and possibly San Antonio looking to move up the standings and leapfrog the Lakers.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan

The Lakers enter the offseason in a difficult position. James and Davis remain as potent as any duo in the league, but James turns 40 years old in December and is expected to play only a couple more years.

The team will look to be aggressive in the offseason with its three tradable first-round picks — No. 17 overall in the upcoming draft, and future first-rounders in 2029 and 2031.

If a star player requests a trade, the best package the Lakers can put together simply would not be competitive with teams stacked with draft assets and young players. That doesn’t mean L.A. won’t continue to be linked to star players, but the ones who could be realistically attainable have red flags.

Take Trae Young, for instance, a very talented but ball-dominant point guard. Going all-in for Young would likely cause more problems than solutions due to his maximum-salary contract and defensive limitations.

Zach LaVine‘s value is at an all-time low after season-ending foot surgery limited him to 25 games. His max deal will pay him $89MM over the next two seasons, with a $49MM player option for ’26/27. The Lakers probably wouldn’t have to give up very much to acquire the two-time All-Star, but would he help or hinder the club going forward?

Finding players who can contribute both in the short and long term while maintaining some semblance of future flexibility is an extremely difficult needle to thread. Especially when other teams know you want to get better but don’t have a clear path to doing so.

L.A. had a recipe for success around James and Davis four years ago when the team won the championship — a top-tier defense with role players who knew how to move the ball and could make enough shots to keep defenses honest. But 3-and-D players aren’t easy to acquire, as just about every team in the league wants more of them.

Alex Caruso, who won a ring with that title team before the Lakers let him walk in free agency a few years ago, would be a great on-court fit. However, he’s entering the final year of his contract, and the Bulls have reportedly placed a high asking price for defensive stalwart in the past couple transaction windows.

Dorian Finney-Smith is another player who has been linked to L.A. He’s a good player on a fairly reasonable contract. He also isn’t a player who is going to move the needle on his own, and I don’t think he’s worth any first-round picks.

James has a $51.4MM player option for ’24/25 and is widely expected to return in some fashion, whether it comes via an extension or opting out and re-signing. In addition to Hayes and Reddish, Russell also holds a player option valued at $18.7MM.

If James opts out and re-signs, he would be eligible for a full no-trade clause. That could appeal to him as he enters his age-40 season, although it’s very difficult to envision any scenario in which the Lakers would consider trading him anyway.

Let’s say all four players simply pick up their options. That leaves the Lakers with $178.75MM committed to 12 players. They also have a $3.83MM cap hold for the No. 17 overall pick and a potential $2.29MM qualifying offer — which is also the cap hold — to make second-year wing Max Christie a restricted free agent. That’s a total of about $184.9MM for 14 players.

The first luxury tax apron is projected to be $178.7MM. The second apron would be just shy of $189.5MM.

I don’t have a great feel for Christie’s market value because he hasn’t been a regular part of the team’s rotation in his first two seasons. He’s only 21 and has shown glimpses of being a valuable role player, but it’s hard to say how that will translate to his next contract. I do think the Lakers will re-sign him though, assuming it makes sense financially.

The problem with the above scenario is the Lakers weren’t a contender in ’23/24 and running things back isn’t a solution. Handing out all those player options in 2023 free agency may have secured additional commitments, but it made navigating the team’s books a more difficult proposition this summer.

Russell’s situation is interesting because if he signs with a rival team in free agency, the Lakers wouldn’t have to worry about the restrictions of the aprons at all — they might not even be a taxpayer ($171.3MM). But they’d also lose their starting point guard and a potential mid-sized contract to use for salary-matching in trades.

You could make an argument that ’23/24 was Russell’s best regular season as a pro, averaging 18.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 6.3 APG while turning it over at a career-low rate (2.1 per game). He scored efficiently (.588 TS%), including a career-high 41.5% from three-point range, and appeared in 76 games, his highest mark in five years.

However, he was abysmal in the playoffs again, averaging more field goal attempts (14.6) than points (14.2) per game. He was also targeted by Denver defensively for the second straight year. If it were his first rodeo, maybe it wouldn’t be particularly noteworthy, but the 28-year-old has consistently struggled under the bright lights of the postseason, with a career TS% of .484 in 32 games (just over 1,000 minutes).

Russell has always been a streaky scorer who has never been known for his defense. But if he struggles to score at the time of the season you need him most, how valuable do his regular season contributions actually end up being?

There is no easy answer to that question, which is why his market value is particularly tricky to gauge. He provides a certain baseline of skills that appeals to teams, despite being streaky. But I also don’t think there’s a team out there that views Russell as any type of long-term solution at point. He’s entering his 10th season, so an improvement over last season would likely be marginal.

Russell exercising his option would probably be a best-case scenario for the Lakers because he would remain trade-eligible and under contract. He might be flawed, but they also don’t have a straightforward way to replace what he brings to the table.

That’s the biggest problem with the Lakers right now. Their most appealing player asset — aside from James and Davis, of course — is Reaves, a good player on a great contract. Beyond that, the outlook is pretty bleak.

Hachimura had a solid regular season before struggling in the playoffs. He’s owed $35.3MM over the next two seasons — not an onerous deal by any means, but also not particularly team-friendly. He might appeal to certain teams, but not enough on his own to return anything of significant value.

Vanderbilt defends, hustles and rebounds, but he’s not a great offensive player, and he only played 29 games last season due to a nagging heel injury. He’s 25 and will make a little under the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which certain teams can now use as a trade exception — an acquiring team potentially wouldn’t have to take salary back to acquire him.

Vincent is still owed $22.5MM over the next two years. It’s hard to view that contract as anything but a negative right now.

Guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, whom the team selected 17th overall in 2023, only played a total of 109 NBA minutes as a rookie last season. Injuries certainly were a factor, but he was also buried deep on the depth chart. This is not a slight at Hood-Schifino because he’s still very young and some things were out of his control. But after one year, the pick doesn’t look great for the front office — the three players selected immediately after Hood-Schifino were Jaime Jaquez, Brandin Podziemski and Cam Whitmore — two All-Rookie First Team members and an explosive athlete and scorer.

2023 second-rounder Maxwell Lewis played 103 minutes across 34 games as a rookie, averaging just 3.0 per contest. He’ll earn guaranteed salaries the next two seasons, with a $2.4MM team option for ’26/27.

If Russell declines his option and signs elsewhere, the Lakers would have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Free agents like De’Anthony Melton, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick Jones, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Naji Marshall could make some sense as targets, though they might not all be available.

One thing that’s certain is the Lakers will still trying to be competitive in ’24/25, as New Orleans controls their 2025 first-round pick, which is unprotected. That is the final piece of the Davis trade from five years ago.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Davis ($43,219,440)
Rui Hachimura ($17,000,000)
Austin Reaves ($12,976,362)
Gabe Vincent ($11,000,000)
Jarred Vanderbilt ($10,714,286)
Jalen Hood-Schifino ($3,879,840)
Christian Wood ($3,036,040)
- Wood exercised his player option.
Maxwell Lewis ($1,891,857)
Total: $103,717,825

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

LeBron James ($51,415,938): Bird rights
D’Angelo Russell ($18,692,307): Bird rights
Jaxson Hayes ($2,463,946): Non-Bird rights
Cam Reddish ($2,463,946): Non-Bird rights
Total: $75,036,137

Team Options

None

Restricted Free Agents

Max Christie ($2,293,637 qualifying offer / $2,293,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $2,293,637

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because they are no longer eligible to sign two-way contracts, the qualifying offers for Giles and Mays would be worth their minimum salary (projected to be $2,432,511 for Giles and $2,244,249 for Mays). Those offers would each include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

No. 17 overall pick ($3,830,280 cap hold)
No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $3,830,280

Extension-Eligible Players

LeBron James (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of August 18; player option must be exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Taurean Prince ($5,419,200 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Spencer Dinwiddie ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $7,512,837

Other Cap Holds

Carmelo Anthony ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Avery Bradley ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Jared Dudley ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Wayne Ellington ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Dwight Howard ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Dion Waiters ($2,093,637 cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $12,561,822

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Lakers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Lakers project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they’re below the first apron, they would gain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12,859,000). If they’re above the second apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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