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Trade Breakdown: Kyrie Irving To The Mavericks

February 21st, 2023 at 11:20am CST by Rory Maher

This is the second entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a blockbuster deal between the Mavericks and Nets…

On February 6, the Nets sent Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris to the Mavericks in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected), and second-round picks in 2027 and 2029.

The Nets’ perspective:

Irving’s trade request derailed what had been a promising season for Brooklyn. The Nets had a poor start to 2022/23, going 2-5 before parting ways with former coach Steve Nash, but found success with his replacement, Jacque Vaughn, who was formerly the team’s top assistant.

After Irving returned from his suspension following his promotion of an antisemitic film, things were looking up. At one point the Nets won 18 of 20 games, with Kyrie playing a big role in their success.

Unfortunately, Kevin Durant went down with another knee sprain, and the Nets started to lose, though not as much as they did in ’21/22 without the star forward. Irving put up big numbers in a few of their victories and was evidently displeased that the Nets didn’t offer him a full maximum-salary extension — he decided he’d had enough.

It’s hard to say that Irving’s tenure with the Nets was anything but a failure, even if he was highly productive when he was on the court. The team only won one playoff series during his stint despite having Durant healthy for two of those runs, not to mention former MVP James Harden for one. Injuries certainly played a role in that, but so did Irving’s decision making.

Over Irving’s three-and-a-half seasons with the Nets, he appeared in just 143 of a possible 278 regular season games, or 51.4%. He played in 13 of 20 playoff games (65%).

Whether it was injuries, leaving the team unexpectedly for personal reasons, refusing to get vaccinated, or a team-imposed suspension, Irving wasn’t available nearly enough and caused chaos throughout the organization. Harden asking out last year was more complicated than just Irving’s lack of availability, but it certainly played a role.

The simple fact is Irving was unreliable for Brooklyn. All you have to do is look at his games played to realize that.

From a purely basketball perspective, getting equal value in return for a player as talented as Irving was never going to be realistic. Considering he’s on an expiring contract, and given all of the issues and controversy over the past handful of years, I’m honestly surprised the Nets got as much back as they did.

Finney-Smith and Dinwiddie were arguably the Mavs’ second- and third-best players this season (in whatever order). Sure, they aren’t stars, but they helped the team win games and played big roles in Dallas reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2022, ranking second and fifth on the team, respectively, in minutes per game during the postseason (both players also shot over 40% from three-point range).

Finney-Smith doesn’t get much media attention since his playing style is selfless, but he has had a pretty remarkable career arc. After going undrafted in 2016, he caught on with the Mavs due to his defense and hustle. However, the combo forward only shot 51.7% on twos and 30.3% from deep over his first three seasons, so he was a liability offensively.

That has changed over the past three-plus seasons, with Finney-Smith improving both his two- and three-point percentages to 59.2% and 38.2%, respectively. He was a full-time starter and often had the impossible task of guarding the opposing team’s best player, credibly defending positions one through four.

While Finney-Smith may not be a lock-down one-on-one defender like OG Anunoby or an elite shooter, he is a quality 3-and-D player who has positive value. Brian Lewis of The New York Post reported after the trade that multiple teams offered two first-rounders for the veteran forward – the Nets could easily deal him in the offseason if they’re so inclined.

Dinwiddie thrived alongside Luka Doncic as a secondary play-maker over the past two seasons (he was really only on the team for about one full season, as he was acquired in February 2022). In 76 games (32.3 MPG) with the Mavs, he averaged 17.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 4.9 APG on a rock-solid .466/.404/.788 shooting slash line, good for a .605 true shooting percentage (the league average for guards in ‘22/23 is about 56%).

The combo guard is a below-average defensive player, but he’s big for his position (6’5″, 215 pounds), so he at least offers some versatility. He’s under contract through next season and will carry a reasonable $20.36MM cap hit in ‘23/24.

Both players will turn 30 years old later this season, so they’re in the midst of their primes. Finney-Smith is on a long-term contract that will pay him $13.93MM in ‘23/24, $14.93MM in ‘24/25, and he has a $15.38MM player option in ‘25/26.

In addition to receiving two quality rotation players, the Nets also received the Mavs’ unprotected 2029 first-round pick and a couple of second-rounders. Obviously, the unprotected first-rounder was the key to this deal being made, as there were other teams desperate to improve their chances this season, including the Lakers.

If things go south in Dallas or Irving simply walks as a free agent, how will Doncic respond? That’s what everyone in the NBA will be monitoring in the coming months (and possibly years).

If Doncic is no longer on the team six years from now, all bets are off as far as that pick goes (he can become a free agent as early as 2026). Even if he stays, it’s not like the Mavs are a world-beater or stacked with young talent. Losing Jalen Brunson in free agency and now trading away two of their best remaining players and an unprotected future pick makes it more difficult to make subsequent win-now moves.

It’s worth noting that Brooklyn saved a significant amount of money toward the luxury tax with this deal and added a couple small ($4.5MM and $1.8MM) traded player exceptions as well.

The Nets did the best they could under the circumstances. I certainly don’t blame them for not giving Irving the extension he wanted after all that’s happened over the past handful of years. Obviously there was a major downside in that it caused Durant to ask out as well, which we’ll cover in another article.

The Mavs’ perspective:

Irving’s value might be the most difficult to gauge of any player in the league, because when he’s active and on the court, there’s no question that he’s a star player worthy of a max-salary commitment. He is one of the most skilled ball-handlers in NBA history and an elite shot-maker.

An ambidextrous finisher at the rim whose creativity is unparalleled, Irving averaged 27.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.8 APG and 1.3 SPG on a terrific .490/.397/.912 shooting line (.604 TS%) in his 147 games (35.8 MPG) with the Nets.

In addition to making one of the biggest shots in NBA history in Game 7 of Cleveland’s championship victory over Golden State in 2016, Irving holds career Finals averages of 27.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.8 SPG on .468/.395/.926 shooting in 13 games (39.8 MPG). He has produced at an extremely high level on the highest stage, against elite competition.

When he gets hot, there’s no one in the league that can guard him. In just his fourth game as a Maverick, Irving scored 26 points on 11-of-12 shooting in the fourth quarter against Minnesota, coming close to a franchise record (only Doncic with 28 and Dirk Nowitzki with 29 have scored more in a quarter). The Mavs wound up losing the game, but Kyrie nearly single-handedly gave them a chance to tie it after being down 18 to start the fourth.

Dirk was 40 years old when Doncic was a rookie and realistically should have been retired already – he could barely move. Trading for Kristaps Porzingis didn’t work out. Irving is far and away the most talented teammate Doncic has ever played with.

Offensively, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. Irving has shown he can be an excellent 1B option next to elite players, and Doncic certainly fits that bill. There’s enough shooting left on the roster to think the Mavs will be improved on that end, and they’re already eighth in the league in offense.

Adding top-end talent is more difficult than acquiring role players. The Mavs obviously believe acquiring Irving raises the team’s ceiling — otherwise they would not have made the trade.

The Mavs could not have signed Irving – or any other top player – in free agency because they’re well over the salary cap. In fact, they added about $29MM to their luxury tax bill with this trade, per Kurt Badenhausen of Sportico.

What they gave up is about the least you could possibly expect to give up for an eight-time All-Star in the middle of his prime. Irving is averaging more points per game (27.2) this season than Dinwiddie (17.7) and Finney-Smith (8.9) combined.

That said, availability has always been an issue for Irving. He missed an average of about 17 games per year due to injuries over his first eight seasons with the Cavs and Celtics. He has missed fewer than 10 games only once in 12 seasons, back in ‘14/15 with Cleveland (he missed seven).

Even putting aside Irving’s injury history and volatility (and both of those are significant concerns), there are basketball reasons why the trade might not work out. At 6’2″, Irving doesn’t have the size to regularly guard bigger players, and he doesn’t always put forth much effort on the defensive end.

He is better than his reputation suggests when he tries, but his lack of size hurts in switching schemes. The Mavs can’t hide him on weaker offensive players because that’s what they do with Doncic.

Part of the reason why Irving made sense when paired with LeBron James and Durant is that both of those former teammates were capable of playing top-tier defense when locked in. Doncic can make plays, but a stopper he is not.

Trading away two quality rotation players for one great-when-available player hurt the team’s size, defensive versatility and depth. Morris was included because he was unhappy with his playing time – he has yet to play a game for Dallas.

Josh Green is having a breakout third season for the Mavs. Instead of being a quality reserve, he’s now a heavy-minutes starter. How he responds will be critical to the team’s chances for the rest of the season and beyond.

Rookie Jaden Hardy, another guard, has also had a real role post-trade after excelling in the G League. He looks overmatched defensively, but he’s fun to watch when he gets going on offense.

The Mavs reached the Western Conference Finals last season primarily because they had the league’s seventh-best defense. The main reason they have already nearly equaled last season’s loss total (52-30 vs. 31-29) is because they have fallen all the way to 24th in defense.

Green, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber (once he returns from a torn hamstring) will be absolutely vital in trying to hold together some semblance of a competent defensive unit. It will be a tall order, especially in the playoffs, assuming Dallas makes it in.

It seems odd to make such a bold trade for perhaps the NBA’s most mercurial and unpredictable star when the team is already in a precarious position in the standings – the Mavs are currently the No. 6 seed in the West, but only two games away from completely missing the play-in tournament. Perhaps they believed they needed to shake things up because the previous roster wasn’t going anywhere.

Obviously, Doncic signed off and approved of the deal. The fact that Irving has longstanding relationships with president of basketball operations Nico Harrison and head coach Jason Kidd theoretically helps.

Even in the most optimistic scenarios, Dallas will have difficult choices to make in the offseason. Let’s say Irving and Doncic’s partnership is fruitful, Christian Wood plays well, Green thrives in a bigger role and the Mavs have another long playoff run. Green will be eligible for a rookie scale extension, Wood is a free agent and they’ll almost be forced to give Irving a massive new contract, assuming he wants to stay. That didn’t turn out very well for the Nets.

If things go south – say they miss the playoffs outright or lose in the play-in tournament – Irving could walk in free agency. In that scenario, the Mavs would have given up two quality players on reasonable contracts, an unprotected first-rounder and two second-rounders for at most 26 regular season games of Irving (he has already missed one game with lower back tightness). Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith were reportedly positive voices in the locker room on top of being solid players.

Irving threatened to undergo season-ending knee surgery if Cleveland didn’t trade him in the 2017 offseason. Two years later, he left Boston in free agency after publicly saying he was going to re-sign with the Celtics. Now he requested and was traded out of Brooklyn after feeling disrespected by not getting a maximum-salary extension.

How long will he last in Dallas if things don’t go the way he wants? Will that have a ripple effect on Doncic like it did with Durant? The Mavericks may have bolstered their championship upside if they can build out the roster around Doncic and Irving, but the risk of everything going up in flames is also exponentially higher than it was before making the deal.

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Roster Moves Required Soon For Knicks, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz

February 21st, 2023 at 7:34am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rules require teams to carry a minimum of 14 players on their standard 15-man roster (not counting two-way contracts). However, teams are permitted to dip below 14 players for up to two weeks at a time, and that often happens around the trade deadline when clubs send out multiple players in a deal without acquiring as many in return.

Entering this week, there were six NBA teams who were carrying only 13 players on standard contracts. However, the Heat filled their two open roster spots by signing Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, while the Bucks are reportedly signing Meyers Leonard to a 10-day contract to be their 14th man (they’ll have to finalize that deal by Thursday).

That leaves four teams with roster moves to make in the coming days, as our roster counts page shows. Here’s the breakdown:

New York Knicks

The Knicks had a full 15-man roster heading into trade deadline day, but they sent out three players – Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Svi Mykhailiuk – in the multi-team deal that landed Josh Hart in New York.

As a result, the Knicks have been carrying just 13 players on standard contracts since February 9 and will have until this Thursday to add at least one player to their roster. Two-way player DaQuan Jeffries has been mentioned as a candidate for a possible promotion.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets didn’t make any mismatched trades at the February 9 deadline, but they already had one open roster spot at that time and created another when they bought out Reggie Jackson after acquiring him from the Clippers.

Since Jackson was officially waived on February 12, the Hornets’ two-week window to add a 14th man will close on Feb. 26, so they still have a few days to make a decision on that spot. Promoting a two-way player (Theo Maledon or Bryce McGowens) is one option for Charlotte, though the team could also target a free agent for either a 10-day or rest-of-season contract.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a series of cuts after the trade deadline passed, waiving John Wall and buying out Danny Green and Justin Holiday. They did sign Boban Marjanovic during that time as well, so they only have two openings on their roster, rather than three. But they’ll have to add a 14th man by February 27, two weeks after Holiday was officially cut.

Again, the Rockets could choose to promote a two-way player, but Darius Days or Trevor Hudgins have barely played at the NBA level this season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Houston opt for a free agent or a G League call-up instead.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz had a full roster entering February 9, but traded four players for three in their deal with the Lakers and Timberwolves. They subsequently created two more roster openings by buying out Leandro Bolmaro (on Feb. 16) and Russell Westbrook (on Monday).

Because they first dipped below the 14-man minimum last Thursday, Utah will have until next Thursday (March 2) to add two players.

The 29-31 Jazz remain very much in the play-in mix, just a half-game behind the No. 10 Thunder, so it’s possible they could have interest in a veteran who could contribute immediately.

On the other hand, the Jazz’s deadline moves suggested management wasn’t focused on going all-out for a top-10 seed, so they may rather bring in young players they could develop — Utah could potentially sign those players to multiyear contracts that aren’t guaranteed beyond this season, allowing the team to take cheap fliers on a couple prospects.

[Note: The Jazz reached agreements to sign Frank Jackson and Kris Dunn to 10-day contracts a few hours after this story was published.]

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Community Shootaround: Most Improved Player

February 20th, 2023 at 3:32pm CST by Rory Maher

Since 2000/01, 12 of the 22 Most Improved Player award winners have been 23 years old or younger. Only three — Julius Randle (26), Goran Dragic (27) and Hedo Turkoglu — were older than 25, with Turkoglu the oldest winner during that span at 28.

Of the past 22 winners, 17 had played fewer than five seasons. Needless to say, a younger, relatively inexperienced player typically wins the award.

The three frontrunners for the ’22/23 MIP award are slightly different. According to BetOnline.ag, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+140) is neck-and-neck with Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (+145), followed closely by Knicks guard Jalen Brunson at +250 (Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton and Nets guard Cam Thomas are each viewed as long shots at +4000).

Gilgeous-Alexander, 24, is in his fifth season. Markkanen, 25, is in his sixth. Brunson, 26, is in his fifth. That’s not to take anything away from any of the players whatsoever, I just thought it was interesting that they are slightly more experienced than many of the past winners over the past couple decades.

All three have compelling cases. On top of averaging 30.8 PPG (his previous career-high was 24.5), 4.7 RPG and 5.7 APG on terrific efficiency (.508/.343/.912 shooting line for a .624 true shooting percentage), Gilgeous-Alexander is one of only three qualifying players (Jaren Jackson Jr. and Joel Embiid are the others) averaging at least one steal (1.6) and one block per game (1.1).

He has also led Oklahoma City to a surprising 28-29 record, good for the No. 10 seed in the West at the moment. I don’t think many people would have predicted the Thunder would be in the play-in tournament this late in the ’22/23 season, especially after No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren was ruled out before the season began with a foot injury.

Markkanen is also averaging a career-high in PPG at 24.9 (previous high was 18.7) on elite efficiency — of players averaging at least 20 PPG, his .657 TS% only trails Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. He’s shooting at career-high levels from all over the court, including twos (.594), threes (.412), FG% (.512) and FT% (.877). The Finnisher is also averaging a solid 8.6 RPG for the resilient 29-31 Jazz, the No. 11 seed in the West.

Brunson has been instrumental in the Knicks’ turnaround this season, with New York currently sitting at 33-27, No. 6 in the East. Like his primary competition for the award, he’s averaging a career-high 23.9 PPG (previous high was 16.3) on top of a career-best 6.2 APG. His shooting slash line of .485/.411/.838 is excellent, and his .592 TS% is well above average for a point guard.

We want to know what you think. Who would you currently select for the Most Improved Player award? Why? Head to the comments to weigh in.

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Community Shootaround: Should All-Star Rosters Be Expanded?

February 19th, 2023 at 3:57pm CST by Luke Adams

In 1963, there were only nine teams in the NBA but 24 spots available in the All-Star Game, observes Lev Akabas of Sportico (subscription required). Sixty years later, the league’s number of teams has more than tripled, to 30, but the league still only names 24 All-Stars per season (barring injuries).

An expansion of All-Star rosters is long overdue, in Akabas’ view, since players are putting up record-setting scoring numbers in the current era, meaning many with All-Star caliber résumés find themselves on the outside looking in.

Akabas points out that 21 players who are averaging at least 20 points per game this season weren’t named All-Stars. Not all of them had strong cases, but many did — James Harden, for instance, is averaging 21.4 PPG while also leading the NBA in assists per contest (10.8) for a 38-19 team, but didn’t qualify as an All-Star.

Besides leaving out worthy candidates, naming just 24 All-Stars across 30 teams hurts fan engagement, contends Akabas, since there will always be a number of clubs who don’t have any players in the game. He singles out Atlanta and Washington to illustrate this point — those are two of the NBA’s top 10 media markets, and the Hawks and Wizards rank among the East’s top 10 teams in 2022/23, but neither club will be represented in this year’s All-Star Game.

Akabas also argues that, since some players’ contracts include All-Star bonuses, there’s a significant amount of money on the line, and with just 12 All-Stars selected per conference, a snub can have a major financial impact on a player.

Additionally, Akabas says, a player’s career number of All-Star appearances goes a long way toward determining his legacy, and the fact that players from previous generations had an easier path to the game when there were fewer teams – and fewer players – in the NBA makes it more difficult to compare stars from different eras.

I don’t find Akabas’ point about All-Star bonuses particularly compelling – those contracts were negotiated with the current format in mind – but the rest of his case is reasonable. Certainly, with teams permitted to carry up to 13 active players in a normal regular season game, it makes sense to at least expand All-Star rosters by one in each conference, increasing the total number of players from 24 to 26.

Still, that bump to 26 or more players often happens naturally. In each of the last three seasons, three All-Star replacements have been named for injured players, and we have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last All-Star Game that didn’t feature at least one injury replacement. Those substitutions often allow the NBA to rectify the year’s most egregious snubs.

We want to know what you think. Do you like the fact that the NBA still names only 24 All-Stars per season? Does the fact that it’s more difficult, statistically, to make an All-Star team now than it ever has been in the past add to the event’s appeal by making the All-Star roster a more exclusive club?

Or do you think it makes sense to increase the All-Star rosters – if only by one spot per conference – to account for the grown of the league’s player pool that has occurred over the decades?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Eastern Conference?

February 19th, 2023 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

The Western Conference, where the No. 3 and No. 10 seeds are separated by just four games, may feature a more wide-open playoff race than the Eastern Conference, but things aren’t nearly as tight at the top of the West, where the top-seeded Nuggets have a five-game lead on the No. 2 Grizzlies and an eight-game cushion on the No. 3 Kings.

In the East, there has been a perception for much of the season that the Celtics and Bucks are in their own tier as the conference’s top teams, but their lead in the standings isn’t nearly as big as the one held by Denver in the West.

Heading into the All-Star break, the 42-17 Celtics and the 41-17 Bucks are separated by a half-game, while the 38-19 Sixers are only three games out of the East’s top seed and the 38-23 Cavaliers are within five games of Boston.

The Celtics opened the season by winning 21 of their first 26 games and haven’t slowed down much since then. Even during their less dominant 21-12 stretch following their 21-5 start, Boston has a top-five net rating. For the season, they own not only the NBA’s best record but the best net rating (plus-6.2).

The Bucks have made the Celtics sweat for that No. 1 seed though, winning their last 12 games in a row. Milwaukee’s defense, headed by Brook Lopez and former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo, has the NBA’s second-best rating, and the Bucks still haven’t really gotten a look at their lineup with a fully healthy Khris Middleton. If Middleton is back to 100% or close to it by the spring, Milwaukee will be an incredibly tough out in any playoff series.

The Sixers‘ star duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid has hit its stride in its first full year together. After an up-and-down start to the season that saw them at .500 (12-12) in early December, Philadelphia has gone 26-7, with Harden and Embiid leading the way — the 76ers have a plus-8.7 net rating when they’re on the court together.

Although they’re the last of the East’s top four teams and own the least playoff experience, the Cavaliers shouldn’t be overlooked. Their defensive rating (109.3) ranks first in the NBA, and only Boston has a better full-season net rating than Cleveland’s plus-5.8 mark. The Cavs were on a roll just prior to the All-Star break, winning seven straight games before dropping one in Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Those four clubs look like the best bets to represent the East in the NBA Finals this season, especially since the revamped Nets at No. 5 probably lack the star power to make a deep postseason run. But there could be some dark horse contenders further down the Eastern Conference standings.

The Knicks at No. 6 won’t make things easy on any playoff opponent; the No. 7 Heat made the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago with a similar roster to the one they have now, and have the conference’s fourth-best record against teams that are .500 or better.

The Hawks, Wizards, Raptors, and Bulls – who currently rank between No. 8 and No. 11 – have been too inconsistent so far to consider them real threats to win the conference, but each roster features at least one or two stars.

We want to know what you think. Which Eastern team will represent the conference in the NBA Finals this season?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to explain your pick.

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Community Shootaround: Golden State Warriors

February 18th, 2023 at 3:20pm CST by Rory Maher

During the 2021/22 regular season, the Warriors went 53-29 and had the league’s 16th-best offense and second-best defense, good for the fourth-best net rating. They led the NBA in net rating during the playoffs, winning their fourth title in eight years.

Expectations were understandably high entering the season as Golden State looked to defend its championship. The Warriors lost some bench depth, but that didn’t seem insurmountable with the primary core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney and Jordan Poole still in place.

Things haven’t gone according to plan. The Warriors dropped three of their last four games entering the All-Star break and have already equaled last season’s loss total, currently sitting at .500 with a 29-29 record. Entering the break last season, they were 42-17.

Their offense has actually improved — it’s up four spots to 12th in the league. The primary culprit has been the defense, which has fallen all the way down to 20th. Golden State’s net rating in ’22/23 isn’t much better, currently sitting at plus-0.1, which ranks 19th in the NBA.

Injuries to Curry and Wiggins haven’t helped. Wiggins is healthy now, but there’s still no timeline for Curry’s return to action following a left leg injury.

The team’s lone trade ahead of the deadline — sending out former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman to bring back defensive stalwart Gary Payton II — has to be considered a disappointment on several levels. Not only did selecting Wiseman not work out, but Payton’s physical was flagged and he’s expected to miss an extended period of time with an abdominal injury.

The five-man unit of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Looney has been absolutely dominant, recording a plus-21.9 net rating with what equates to the league’s best offense and defense. It has been far and away the most effective five-man group in the league that has played 300-plus minutes.

However, the bench has been a problem the entire season, and the team’s reliance on making jump shots has hurt when trying to close out games — the Warriors are last in the league in free throw attempts (they were 26th last season, but the defense was much, much better).

If the season ended today, the No. 9 seed Warriors would need to win a couple of games in the play-in tournament to reach the postseason. Their spot is tenuous, as they only hold a one-game lead on the Jazz and Trail Blazers, the current No. 11 and No. 12 seeds.

However, the West is so close, they’re also only 2.5 games back of the No. 4 seed Clippers, so a strong finish to the season could secure them homecourt advantage in the first round — the Warriors are 22-7 at home, but only 7-22 on the road.

Assuming Curry is healthy and they get in, no one will want to play the Warriors in the playoffs. They have been the most successful team in the league over the past decade and their core has a wealth of experience. But trying to get there has been a bumpy road.

We want to know what you think. Will the Warriors make a late-season push and secure a playoff spot outright? Or will they be stuck in the play-in mix for their final 24 games?

Head to the comments and share your thoughts on the Warriors’ outlook for the rest of the regular season.

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Poll: Who Will Win 2023 Three-Point Contest?

February 18th, 2023 at 10:47am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2023 three-point contest will take place on Saturday night as part of All-Star weekend in Salt Lake City.

The league’s announcement of this year’s participants resulted in a few raised eyebrows, since none of the eight players who will take part in the contest ranked among the top 10 shooters in the league – based on 3PT% – when they were selected.

Sharpshooters like Isaiah Joe (45.2%) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (45.0%) were among the league leaders not believed to have received an invite, while stars like Stephen Curry (42.7%) and Desmond Bane (42.7%) presumably turned down invitations.

The NBA’s picks for the event reflect the league’s focus on stars over role players and its preference for volume three-point shooters over those who have high percentages but only attempt three or four shots per game from beyond the arc. The resulting field is as follows:

None of the eight players taking part in this year’s event participated in last year’s three-point contest, so there won’t be anyone defending his title — last year’s champion, Karl-Anthony Towns, is on the shelf due to a calf injury.

There is one former champion in the field, however, as well as two other players who have competed in this event in the past. Lillard and Tatum have each been in previous contests, while Hield took home the hardware in 2020.

The highest-percentage shooter among this year’s eight-man group, Hield is the co-favorite to win this year’s event, along with Lillard, per BetOnline.ag. Huerter has the third-best odds, followed by Herro and Haliburton. Tatum and Markkanen are tied for the second-worst odds, while Randle is a significant underdog.

But the three-point contest is unpredictable, since one well-timed hot streak – or poorly-timed cold stretch – can be the difference between winning and losing. So we want to know what you think.

Who will win this year’s three-point contest? Do you expect one of the favorites to come out victorious, or are you riding with an underdog?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

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Trade Breakdown: Rui Hachimura To The Lakers

February 17th, 2023 at 1:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the first entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Lakers and Wizards…

On January 23, the Lakers sent Kendrick Nunn, the Bulls’ 2023 second-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick, and their own 2029 second-round pick to the Wizards in exchange for Rui Hachimura.

The Lakers’ perspective:

After missing the entire 2021/22 season with a somewhat mysterious knee injury (it was described as a bone bruise), Nunn picked up his $5.25MM player option for the 2022/23 season and Los Angeles had high hopes for his return to action.

Unfortunately, he had a miserable start to the season, averaging just 5.2 PPG, 1.1 RPG and 0.9 APG on .365/.308/.923 shooting through 29 games (11.5 MPG). Nunn’s primary skill is his ability to score, and he wasn’t having much success at it.

Entering the season, the Lakers had six players on their roster who primarily played guard: Nunn, Dennis Schröder, Austin Reaves, Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker and Patrick Beverley. Of the six, only Walker (6’4″) and Reaves (6’5″) are taller than 6’3″. Nunn was last among the group on depth chart.

Head coach Darvin Ham had to cobble together some extremely small lineups due to the team’s flawed roster construction – Schröder, Westbrook, Walker and Beverley were third through seventh on the team in minutes per game at the time of this trade, trailing only LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

At the two forward spots, the Lakers had Troy Brown Jr., Max Christie and Juan Toscano-Anderson, all of whom are 6’6″. Wenyen Gabriel (6’9″) has played both power forward and center. And then James (6’9″) at power forward.

Obviously, size, strength and athleticism was needed with such a small roster. Trading away Nunn was no big loss, as he was 13th on the team in minutes per game and shared too much overlap with the team’s glut of guards.

Enter Hachimura, who stands 6’8″ and weighs 230 pounds. While some have labeled the 25-year-old a wing, he has been more of a power forward who can slide down to the three at times to this point in his career.

As with Nunn, Hachimura’s primary NBA skill is his ability to get buckets. He is a strong mid-range scorer who likes playing out of the triple-threat position in isolation. He can drive both ways and particularly favors a spinning baseline fadeaway over his right shoulder.

Hachimura is also a strong transition player, using his athleticism to get to the rim in the open court. He can finish with both hands in those scenarios and it’s difficult for defenders to handle a player with his size and strength while backpedaling.

As has been repeated ad nauseam, the Lakers needed more three-point shooting and defense on top of the other roster flaws. Hachimura doesn’t help much with either of those issues.

After shooting 31.3% from deep on low volume over his first two seasons, Hachimura made a blistering 44.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc on slightly higher volume last season, giving hope that he was turning the corner on that front. He’s back down to 32.5% in ‘22/23, including 28.6% in 11 games as a Laker, making last season’s success look like an outlier.

While Hachimura’s outside shooting may have regressed, he does have a nice one-dribble pull-up jump shot when defenders chase him off the line. His efficiency would certainly improve if he could turn that dribble into a side-step three-pointer instead of a long two, but he converts the twos at a higher clip right now.

Defensively, Hachimura is solid one-on-one, particularly against bigger wings and power forwards. He struggles in other aspects on that end, however, as he frequently lacks off-ball awareness, isn’t a great rebounder (he doesn’t box out), and isn’t a play-maker (his steal and block rates are alarmingly low for a player with his physical attributes).

Having said that, the cost to acquire the former lottery pick wasn’t prohibitive, and he definitely has talent. The Bulls’ 2023 second-round pick would be No. 37 at the moment, so that has solid value. The other two second-rounders are several years down the road, so there’s plenty of time for the Lakers to rebuild their draft capital (there’s also typically at least a couple second-round picks for sale in every draft – that’s how they acquired Christie, the 19-year-old rookie).

I liked the fact that the Lakers made the trade two-plus weeks before the February 9 deadline, as that allows them to get a better look at Hachimura and gives him more time to get acclimated to the team. He has already played 11 games for the Lakers, so he could play nearly half of their games if he stays healthy.

Hachimura will be a restricted free agent in the summer if he’s tendered a qualifying offer worth a projected $7.7MM, giving L.A. additional options when compared to Nunn, who will be an unrestricted free agent. For what the Lakers gave up, they shouldn’t feel committed to giving Hachimura a long-term contract unless they’re happy with his play and believe in his upside.

The Wizards’ perspective:

It’s worth noting that Nunn had been playing pretty well at the end of his Lakers tenure, getting playing time due to injuries to Walker and Reaves. He averaged 11.0 PPG and 2.4 RPG on .478/.354/.625 shooting over his final 10 games (19.6 MPG) with L.A.

That has carried over to the Wizards, and he’s been a useful reserve for a team that needed backcourt depth and bench scoring. Through 11 games (18.4 MPG) with the Wizards, Nunn is averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.2 RPG and 2.7 APG on .487/.400/.900 shooting.

In addition to the second-rounders, the Wizards gained a little bit of financial flexibility, saving about $1MM and moving further away from the luxury tax line.

They didn’t end up using the flexibility in a subsequent trade, but it will come in handy if they want to give two-way player Jordan Goodwin a multiyear standard contract. Washington could use a leftover portion of its mid-level exception to offer Goodwin a three- or four-year deal and a starting salary above his minimum without going into the tax.

It’s easy to bemoan the Wizards seemingly selling low on a former No. 9 overall pick, and it’s certainly fair to say that they don’t have a strong track record of player development. But both of those points gloss over the fact that things just weren’t working out for Hachimura in D.C.

Hachimura has had extended absences in each of his four seasons, missing at least 15 games per year, and was reportedly unhappy with his role. It’s hard to envision how he would have fit in long-term, given his distinct strengths and weaknesses.

When I wrote about Hachimura prior to the trade, I said he plays with a “physical edge offensively.” That take was mostly based on his first two seasons, but after watching him play more in preparation for this article, I would say it’s mostly inaccurate.

Hachimura does use his footwork, size and strength to draw fouls on occasion, and he’s good at it, but more often than not he shies away from contact, which is somewhat perplexing. He has certainly been better at playing more aggressively on the Lakers, but he frequently settled for jump shots with the Wizards even when he had a size advantage.

One thing I haven’t touched on yet is Hachimura’s passing, or lack thereof. He has taken 421 field goal attempts in ‘22/23 and dished out 41 assists, which is not ideal. The combo forward doesn’t see the floor very well and is regularly a beat slow making reads.

He doesn’t turn the ball over much, but the main reason for that is he just doesn’t look to pass even in situations where teammates are wide open. I could see that being frustrating for both the team and teammates.

There’s often a sunk-cost fallacy when it comes to players who were selected early in drafts. As painful as I’m sure it was for the Wizards to admit it, I believe it was clearly time for both sides to move on.

Wizards president of basketball operations Tommy Sheppard said after the deal that it was partly motivated by a desire to give more responsibility and playing time to Deni Avdija, the third-year forward who was the No. 9 overall pick a year after Hachimura.

In 12 games (28.2 MPG) post-trade, Avdija has arguably enjoyed his most productive stretch in the NBA, averaging 13.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.4 APG and 1.4 SPG on .469/.350/.740. He doesn’t have Hachimura’s scoring upside, but his game is more well-rounded and is a smoother fit on the Wizards’ roster.

All in all, I think it was a reasonable trade from both sides. I’m sure the Wizards would have liked to have gotten a first-round pick in exchange for Hachimura, even if it was a late first-rounder, but the market just wasn’t there. As for the Lakers, it turned out to be one of multiple deals they made in an effort to reshape their roster – we’ll cover the rest in subsequent articles.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win The Western Conference?

February 15th, 2023 at 6:12pm CST by Rory Maher

Every team in the Western Conference was involved in at least one trade prior to last week’s deadline. With so much activity and the standings so jumbled together (except at the top and bottom), now is a good time to take stock of where things currently stand out West for the teams that have a chance at making the postseason.

  1. Nuggets, 40-18 (28-11 vs. West)
  2. Grizzlies, 34-22 (16-16)
  3. Kings, 32-25 (20-13)
  4. Suns, 32-27 (21-14)
  5. Clippers, 32-28 (18-16)
  6. Mavericks, 31-28 (23-15)
  7. Pelicans, 30-28 (19-14)
  8. Timberwolves, 31-29 (22-19)
  9. Warriors, 29-29 (17-14)
  10. Jazz, 29-30 (19-17)
  11. Trail Blazers, 28-30 (20-16)
  12. Thunder, 27-29 (14-17)
  13. Lakers, 26-32 (13-20)

Phoenix made the biggest splash, trading for superstar forward Durant (MCL sprain), who won’t make his Suns debut until after the All-Star break. The Mavericks got a second star to pair with Luka Doncic in Irving, though he can be mercurial. The Clippers bolstered their guard depth and added a traditional backup center in Plumlee.

Golden State dealt away its former second overall pick and brought back a familiar face to try and defend its title, but discovered that Payton was injured and will miss a significant amount of time. The Wolves swapped out point guards, preferring Conley’s veteran leadership and additional year of team control to Russell’s expiring deal.

The Lakers completely reshaped their roster, but with only 24 games remaining, they’re running out of time to make up ground in the standings. The Jazz were a seller, but they have exceeded expectations all season and hold a half-game lead on the Blazers and Thunder for the final spot in the play-in tournament.

The top three seeds were all relatively quiet at the deadline, particularly the Kings, who only made one very minor trade. It’s understandable why the Nuggets and Grizzlies were confident in their teams, given their respective places in the standings.

After starting the season 14-10, the Nuggets have gone 26-8 over their past 34 games. They hold a five-game lead over Memphis for the top seed in the West and currently have a 26-4 home record in 2022/23 — home court advantage could be a big deal for Denver in the playoffs.

We want to know what you think. Which team will represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your predictions.

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2023 NBA Buyout Market Watch

February 14th, 2023 at 7:30am CST by Luke Adams

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is behind us, but that doesn’t mean teams are finished making roster moves. With nearly two months left in the 2022/23 regular season, there are still many roster spots to be filled around the NBA, as well as veterans who might not finish the year with their current teams.

The NBA’s buyout market has been active since the trade deadline and could feature several more moves in the coming days and weeks.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Buyouts]

A veteran in an undesirable situation due to his playing time or his team’s place in the standings (or both) could ask to be released and may even be willing to give back a little money to accommodate the move. Some teams might make that decision unilaterally, opting to release a veteran to open up a roster spot for a younger player.

Over the rest of the month, we’ll use the space below to monitor the buyout market, keeping tabs on which veteran players have been bought out or released, and which have found new teams. We’ll also keep an eye on players who are potential buyout candidates. The list will be updated daily.

A player on an NBA contract must be waived by the end of the day on March 1 in order to retain his playoff eligibility, so that will be a key date to watch.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2023 NBA buyout market:

Last updated 3-10-23 (12:58pm CT)

Veterans who have been recently bought out or released and are free agents:

Not every player who has been cut since the trade deadline will be mentioned here. This list is essentially just made up of players with at least a few years of NBA experience who could be of immediate interest to teams in the playoff mix.

For instance, Terry Taylor was among the players cut by the Pacers at the trade deadline, but he’s a 23-year-old with 59 NBA appearances on his résumé. He doesn’t fit the profile of a traditional buyout market pickup for a contending team, and players like him won’t be listed here for that reason.

Veterans who have been bought out or released and joined new teams:

Again, we’re focusing here on players who fit the traditional buyout market profile.

The Magic signed center Goga Bitadze after he was waived by the Pacers, but Orlando is a lottery-bound team taking a flier on a young player, not a playoff contender looking for win-now help. That’s why Bitadze and any similar players aren’t listed here.

The one exception is Bolmaro, who is listed here because he gave up some money in a buyout agreement with the Jazz. He was never a player who was likely to be targeted by a contender, but since he technically did complete a buyout (instead of just being waived), we don’t want to leave him out of our buyout market recap.

Other veterans who are candidates to be bought out or released:

We had viewed these players as possible buyout candidates, with some more realistic than others. However, they all made it through the March 1 playoff eligibility waiver deadline without being cut, so they appear likely to finish the season with their respective clubs.

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