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Community Shootaround: Coach’s Challenge

May 26th, 2023 at 10:59pm CST by Rory Maher

According to Chris Haynes of TNT and Bleacher Report (Twitter links), the league’s competition committee is in “serious discussions” about a tweak to coaching challenges next season, which would award a second, final challenge if the first is successful. The NBA is considering a test run during Summer League, Haynes adds.

The coach’s challenge has been around since the start of the 2019/20 season, per the NBA, and allows a head coach to “trigger one instant replay review per game of a called foul, called out-of-bounds violation, or called goaltending or basket interference violation. … In order to overturn a call on the floor, there must be clear and conclusive visual evidence that the call was incorrect.”

On one hand, I’m always in favor of the game being called more accurately, and it makes total sense that a successful challenge should lead to — at the very least — another challenge.

However, I do wish foul calls would be immediately reviewed by the replay center instead of the in-game crew chief, since the long delays make for a poor viewing experience. The replay center referee already determines out-of-bounds, goaltending and basket interference challenges, why not fouls as well?

We want to know what you think. Assuming the change is approved, how it might impact games next season? Would it be a positive development, perhaps leading to coaches who use an early challenge that’s likely to be overturned instead of frequently saving it until the fourth quarter? Head to the comments section and share your thoughts on this topic.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 26th, 2023 at 3:16pm CST by Rory Maher

The Timberwolves have historically been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly before and after the Kevin Garnett era. But they were one of the best stories of 2021/22, doubling their win total by going 46-36 and making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed before losing their first-round series against Memphis in six games.

Minnesota was determined to avoid regression last offseason and made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, dealing away three rotation players, five first-round picks and a pick swap for center Rudy Gobert. Unfortunately, his frontcourt partner Karl-Anthony Towns missed much of ’22/23 due to a major calf injury, so the Wolves still only have a small sample size to examine the fit between the two former All-NBA big men.

The Wolves hovered around .500 for much of the season, ultimately finishing 42-40 and avoiding the risk of draft-lottery disaster by making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed (Utah controls Minnesota’s first-round pick, No. 16 overall). Late-season injuries to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels hurt their depth entering the postseason though, and the Wolves lost their first-round series to the Nuggets in five games.

While it’s a noteworthy accomplishment that the Wolves made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002-04, they have their sights set much higher going forward after trading away so many assets for Gobert.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan

Minnesota is faced with a lot of difficult questions this offseason. The most prominent is whether or not the pairing of Gobert and Towns can ultimately lead to a championship when they’re taking up such a huge portion of the payroll, especially when it’s clear the future hinges on the evolution of Anthony Edwards (and, to a lesser extent, Jaden McDaniels).

I’m not going to go too deep into revisiting the Gobert trade, but needless to say it does not look good at all for the Wolves. Is there anyone right now that would even take Gobert in a one-for-one trade for Walker Kessler, the No. 22 overall pick last year who was sent to the Jazz as part of the deal?

Gobert makes $131.5MM over the next three seasons and will turn 31 years old next month. Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and nearly doubled Gobert’s block total (173 vs. 95) in far fewer minutes, will earn $10.7MM over the next three seasons and turns 22 in July. And the Wolves still owe the Jazz four additional first-rounders and a pick swap, not to mention the other players involved.

But I digress. Gobert is on the roster now, and the Wolves can only hope that he returns next season as the dominant paint protector he had been for the better part of the past decade. That version of Gobert was not present for much of ’22/23 — he didn’t receive a single vote for All-Defense or Defensive Player of the Year after making six consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2016-22. His trade value has bottomed out, because he has never been a great offensive player.

The Wolves will almost certainly offer Edwards a rookie scale max extension, and his fellow 2020 draft class member McDaniels is likely to get a very lucrative extension as well. It will be interesting to see exactly how much he receives with the addition of a possible fifth year for non-max rookie scale extensions.

Those extensions won’t take effect until ’24/25, which gives the Wolves a little bit of breathing room this offseason. But that’s also the main reason why I think they should explore the trade market for Towns this offseason in an effort to split his salary slot into smaller pieces. It doesn’t seem like they’ll actually do that, but that’s what I would do.

After signing a super-max extension last summer following an All-NBA appearance in ’21/22, Towns will earn an estimated $220MM+ from 2024-2028 (35% of the salary cap). Edwards will likely be making 25-30% of the cap as well, depending on whether he makes an All-NBA team next season. Gobert will be making nearly $44MM in 2024/25, which is close to the max. Even conservatively projecting McDaniels for a salary of $20MM, the Wolves would be faced with an enormous payroll two years from now. That isn’t sustainable.

Towns is an incredibly skilled and talented offensive player, but he doesn’t make great decisions and I doubt he’ll ever hold up well enough on defense to be worth that financial commitment. His brief playoff performances have been uneven at best.

The question is, what can they get for Towns? He’s only 27, so he’s theoretically in his prime. Minnesota wants to give itself the best chance to win the championship, so draft picks are unlikely to be of interest unless they can be rerouted as part of a three-way trade. Young players on rookie contracts would be appealing, but matching salaries wouldn’t be easy.

The Wolves are highly likely to guarantee the salaries of Mike Conley and Taurean Prince for ’23/24, as both were key rotation members last season. That would push their ’23/24 payroll up to $139.8MM — over the projected $134MM cap — with nine players under contract. Staying under the $162MM luxury tax while improving the roster will be tricky, especially when considering their own free agents, which include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid.

I really like Alexander-Walker’s defense, but I’m not sure he’s a lock to receive the $7MM qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. If the Wolves don’t issue the QO, the 24-year-old would be unrestricted and free to sign with any team. That doesn’t mean the Wolves couldn’t bring him back, but it would be a risk if they do want to retain him, since they’d lose control of the process.

The other young guard, Nowell, might have one foot out the door already, based on various reports throughout the season. He seems intent on testing his value on the open market. Interest seems likely to be tepid though after a down season that saw him shoot just 28.9% from deep.

Reid, on the other hand, should attract a lot of interest after a career year. The Wolves have said they want to retain him, and they have his Bird rights, but I wonder if he’ll look for an opportunity for more minutes elsewhere in his first foray into free agency. Losing him would be a big blow to the team’s frontcourt depth, but you could also argue it would be difficult to justify paying him with Gobert and Towns already under long-term contracts. I’m very curious to see what type of deal he’ll get. I would rather have Reid at around $12MM per year than pay Towns four or five times that much in the future.

Jordan McLaughlin, whose contract is non-guaranteed, had a disappointing and injury-riddled season as the backup point guard. His contract is affordable enough, but I think the Wolves will look to upgrade that position, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Conley showed he could still contribute at a quality level last season, but he’ll be 36 when next season starts and on an expiring contract. Point guard is a position to watch going forward in Minnesota.

How many of their own free agents the Wolves retain — and how much they pay them — will determine whether or not they’ll have access to the full mid-level exception to sign other free agents.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Nathan Knight ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
    • Note: Knight’s salary would be partially guaranteed ($380,718) if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,997,238

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Mike Conley ($10,040,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Conley’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 24.
  • Taurean Prince ($7,650,000)
    • Note: Prince’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
  • Jordan McLaughlin ($2,320,000)
    • Note: McLaughlin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $20,010,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 53 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mike Conley (veteran)
  • Rudy Gobert (veteran)
  • Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Anthony Edwards (rookie scale)
  • Jaden McDaniels (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Nowell and Reid are only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Turner, Brooks, and Monroe remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,374,000
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $3,688,117

Note: The Timberwolves would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Trade Rules For Non-Guaranteed Salaries

May 26th, 2023 at 2:20pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s old Collective Bargaining Agreement, which was in effect through the 2016/17 season, a player’s full cap hit was used for salary-matching purposes in trades, whether or not his salary was guaranteed. If a player had an $10MM salary with a partial guarantee of $1MM, his outgoing salary in a trade was the same as it would have been for a player who had a fully guaranteed $10MM contract.

That’s no longer the case, however. Now, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.

This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on exactly how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.

Under the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s no longer a viable strategy.

Complicating matters further is the fact that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him once his new non-guaranteed cap hit goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.

Here’s a practical example: Chris Paul‘s deal with the Suns featured a fully guaranteed salary of $28.4MM in 2022/23, with only $15.8MM of $30.8MM guaranteed for ’23/24. Between the end of the Suns’ season and June 28 – which is when Paul’s full ’23/24 salary will become guaranteed – his outgoing salary for matching purposes is just $15.8MM, but his incoming salary for his new team would be $30.8MM.

Paul is far from the only player who could be affected by these trade rules this summer. Nets forward Royce O’Neale, Jazz big man Kelly Olynyk, Clippers guard Eric Gordon, Lakers center Mohamed Bamba, and Magic wing Gary Harris are among the many players who have partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed salaries for 2023/24 and won’t make great trade candidates unless those guarantees are increased.

Last offseason, when the Hawks agreed to send Danilo Gallinari to the Spurs in their trade for Dejounte Murray, Gallinari’s cap charges were $20.5MM for 2021/22 and $21.5MM for ’22/23, which should have been more than enough to account for Murray’s incoming salary ($15.4MM for ’21/22; $16.6MM in ’22/23). But Gallinari’s 2022/23 salary was only partially guaranteed for $5MM, which wouldn’t have been satisfactory to match Murray’s full cap hit, so Atlanta and San Antonio had to increase that partial guarantee in order to make the deal legal.

To paint a complete picture of exactly how these new rules work, let’s assume that a free agent signs a two-year, $24MM contract during the summer of 2023. His cap hit in each year is $12MM, but the first season of the contract is partially guaranteed for $3MM, while the second year is fully non-guaranteed. Here’s how it would count, for trade purposes, as outgoing salary:

  1. From the date of the signing until the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 season:
    • $3MM
    • Note: Due to other CBA rules, the player wouldn’t become trade-eligible until at least December 15, 2023 anyway.
  2. From the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2023:
    • A prorated amount of the salary based on the player’s earnings to date.
    • Note: The player would earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 60 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $4,137,931 (60/174ths of $12MM).
  3. From January 10, 2024 until the 2024 trade deadline:
    • $12MM
  4. From the day after the team’s 2023/24 season ends until the start of the 2024/25 regular season:
    • $0
  5. From the start of the 2024/25 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2025:
    • A prorated amount of salary based on earnings to date.
    • Note: The player would once again earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 10 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $689,655 (10/174ths of $12MM).
  6. From January 10, 2025 until the 2025 trade deadline:
    • $12MM

This change to the NBA’s trade rules hasn’t stopped teams from tacking on non-guaranteed years to the end of certain players’ contracts, since those non-guaranteed salaries still provide flexibility. However, we’re not seeing teams construct contracts with non-guaranteed cap hits solely for trade purposes like we sometimes used to.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Will Celtics Complete Eastern Finals Comeback?

May 26th, 2023 at 7:59am CST by Luke Adams

An oft-repeated statistic made the rounds in the NBA world last weekend when the Lakers and Celtics fell behind by a 3-0 margin in their respective conference finals — NBA teams who lost the first three games of a best-of-seven series had a record of 0-149.

The Lakers became the 150th consecutive team to lose a series after dropping the first three games, and it looked heading into Game 4 in Miami on Tuesday like the Celtics would become the 151st, having shown few signs in their first three games against the Heat that they were capable of a history-making comeback.

But a big third quarter and an excellent night from Jayson Tatum, who had a game-high 33 points, fueled a road victory for the Celtics in Game 4. Back in Boston for Game 5 on Thursday, the C’s took a big lead early in the game with a 14-0 first quarter run and never surrendered that lead, forcing a Game 6 in Miami on Saturday.

The Heat still have the upper hand in the series, with a 3-2 lead and a home game on tap, but suddenly the idea of a Celtics comeback doesn’t seem outlandish. Miami’s roster is as banged up as it’s been at any point in the postseason, with Gabe Vincent (ankle) joining Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo on the inactive list for Game 5, leaving the club with little depth in its backcourt.

Heat star Jimmy Butler, who averaged 31.1 PPG on 51.8% shooting in his first 12 playoff contests this spring, has come down to earth a little in his last three games vs. Boston, with those averages dipping to 19.7 PPG and 43.2% shooting (including just 1-of-7 on three-pointers).

According to BetOnline.ag, the Heat are still the betting favorites to make the NBA Finals, but their odds are down to -145 (the Celtics are +125 underdog). And Boston is considered the better bet to win Game 6, having been listed as 2.5-point favorites.

Over the course of NBA history, teams in Boston’s position are 0-for-150, but if ever that streak is going to be broken, it could be in circumstances like these ones. Miami was a play-in team that has exceeded all expectations but is dealing with a handful of injuries and having its depth tested. The Celtics were a dominant regular season team, posting the NBA’s best net rating (+6.7) and second-best record (57-25).

We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics actually complete this improbable comeback or will their efforts hit a wall in Game 6 or 7?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions for the rest of the Eastern Conference Finals!

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 25th, 2023 at 12:23pm CST by Rory Maher

After LeBron James left for Los Angles in the summer of 2018, the Cavaliers were the NBA’s worst team over the following three seasons, going a combined 60-159 (.274 win percentage). In 2021/22, Cleveland got off to a great start, sitting at 35-21 — just one game back of the top seed in the East — on February 11.

Unfortunately, season-ending knee injuries to Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio had limited the Cavs’ backcourt depth, which was further tested when Darius Garland and Caris LeVert (whom the team acquired at last year’s trade deadline) battled their own health problems. Lauri Markkanen and Jarrett Allen missed significant time as well, and the Cavs went just 9-17 to close the season, ultimately losing both of their play-in games.

By all accounts, it was still a wildly successful season, but the way it ended understandably left a sour taste in the Cavs’ mouths. They likely would have made the playoffs had they been healthy, but injuries are part of the game.

Instead of returning the same group, the Cavs wanted to accelerate their timeline. It seemed like a foregone conclusion last summer that Donovan Mitchell would eventually end up with his native New York, but instead the Jazz shocked the NBA world by sending him to Cleveland in exchange for Markkanen, Sexton (via sign-and-trade), No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, the Cavaliers’ unprotected first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029, and the right to swap first-round picks with the Cavaliers in both 2026 and 2028.

Mitchell had an excellent debut season with the Cavs, averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game while scoring more efficiently than ever before, ultimately finishing sixth in MVP voting and earning an All-NBA (Second Team) spot for the first time in his career. Behind the league’s top-ranked defense and an improved offense, the Cavs increased their win total by seven games, going 51-31 and entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 4 seed.

However, Cleveland was thoroughly outplayed in its first-round series against New York, losing in five games. The Cavs actually still hold the best postseason defensive rating out of 16 playoff teams despite the series being lopsided, but a playoff-worst offense and defensive rebounding were major issues.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan

Cleveland doesn’t control its 2023 first-round pick (No. 26 overall), which will be sent to Indiana as part of the trade for LeVert. In fact, the Cavs don’t currently have any future tradable first-round picks due to the Mitchell deal, though they technically could give up swap rights in 2024.

As such, the players on the Cavs’ roster are the primary assets the team controls. The team’s four best players — Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen — are unlikely to be on the move, as they were the core of the team’s first 50-win season without James since ’92/93.

It’s noteworthy that Allen and Mobley struggled in the postseason, getting outplayed by the Knicks’ frontcourt. It turned out to be a bad matchup for the Cavs.

As previously mentioned, one weakness the Cavs had throughout the season was defensive rebounding. They ranked 20th in the league with a 71.5% defensive rebounding percentage. That figure dropped to 60.6% in the playoffs — a figure 7.9% lower than Indiana’s bottom mark during the regular season. The Knicks, meanwhile, held a 31.8% offensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, the second-best rate in the NBA — that number rose to 34.8% in the playoffs, the top mark among the 16 postseason teams.

Of course, not all of that is on Allen and Mobley. Rebounding is a team effort, and wing Josh Hart was a wrecking ball on the offensive glass for New York. It did expose Cleveland’s lack of depth up front (and in general) as an issue though, with Allen and Mobley looking worn down from playing more minutes against a stronger, deeper and more physical Knicks frontline.

President of basketball operations Koby Altman said the Cavs have no intention of overreacting to the playoff loss by breaking up their frontcourt duo, which makes sense, as they were the anchors of the defense. But I do wonder about the long-term fit of Mobley and Allen on offense.

Neither Mobley nor Allen is a threat to shoot from behind the arc at this point, which hurts the team’s spacing. The lane being constantly congested was a major issue in the playoffs, as Mitchell Robinson could just patrol the paint, which is what he prefers to do and is very good at.

That said, the biggest question mark facing the Cavs entering the 2023 offseason is the same as it was entering the 2022/23 season: Finding the right fit at small forward. Caris LeVert filled in at multiple positions throughout the season, including small forward, and he is the team’s biggest free agent. But forward isn’t his natural position, and the Cavs need more depth at other spots as well.

My expectation is the Cavs will look to either extend or re-sign LeVert to a contract perhaps in the range of $45MM over three years. He has said he “absolutely” wants to return and Altman called retaining LeVert a priority.

I also think they’ll guarantee Cedi Osman‘s $6.7MM salary for ’23/24 and pick up their $1.9MM team option on Lamar Stevens. That would give the Cavs 10 players under standard contracts for a total of about $140MM (assuming a $15MM cap hit for LeVert), pushing them over the projected $134MM salary cap.

As long as LeVert’s first-year salary isn’t too expensive, the Cavs could renounce their other cap holds and have the ability to sign a free agent (or two) using their mid-level exception and fill out the roster with minimum contracts without going into the luxury tax, which is projected to be $162MM. They could possibly use their $4.5MM bi-annual exception as well, but it would be a tight squeeze.

If the Cavs can’t shore up their wing depth with the mid-level — there aren’t a ton of great options at that price — I wonder if they might pivot and look to improve their depth at guard or center. Dennis Schröder and Gabe Vincent are unrestricted free agent point guards, while Naz Reid could be an interesting addition at backup center. Reid would bring some floor spacing and a pump-and-drive element that Mobley and Allen don’t currently possess.

In addition to external help, the Cavs will look for internal development, including from wing Isaac Okoro, who will be eligible for a rookie scale extension. They’ll also be hoping for a bounce-back season and better health from forward Dean Wade, who never looked right after injuring his shoulder in December and was limited to 44 regular season games.

Veteran guard Rubio was another player who didn’t look like his old self in ’22/23 as he returned from a torn ACL. He’ll be several more months removed from that surgery by the time next season rolls around, so the Cavs will be hoping he’ll be able to find the form he displayed in his first year with the team in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Lamar Stevens ($1,930,681): Bird rights
    • Note: Stevens’ salary would remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,930,681

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Cedi Osman ($6,718,842)
    • Note: Osman’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Sam Merrill ($1,997,238)
  • Total: $8,716,080

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 49 overall (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Donovan Mitchell (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Lamar Stevens (veteran)
  • Isaac Okoro (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. LeVert is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Davis, Rondo, and Goodwin remain on the Cavaliers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $3,918,360
    • Note: Expires on September 4.

Note: The Cavaliers would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

May 24th, 2023 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Nets landed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency in 2019, it represented a major step in the club’s transition from plucky upstart to star-studded super-team, a transformation that was completed with the 2021 acquisition of James Harden.

Two years after landing Harden, Brooklyn is out of the super-team business, having traded away Harden in 2022 and Durant and Irving in 2023. The new-look Nets bear some resemblance to the pre-2019 squad — there are a lot of promising pieces on the roster, but little star power, so the upside is limited.

Among Brooklyn’s current players, there are two obvious ceiling raisers whose next steps could go a long way to determining the club’s trajectory. Mikal Bridges, acquired from Phoenix in February’s Durant blockbuster, averaged 26.1 points per game after joining the Nets and has an All-Defensive nod on his résumé. If anyone on the roster is going to be an All-Star next season, it will likely be Bridges.

Of course, the only player on the roster who has already been an All-Star – three times, in fact – is former No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, who had a forgettable first full season in Brooklyn. Physical and mental issues, along with an aversion to shooting, have hampered Simmons’ development, but he was one of the NBA’s best passers and defenders while earning three consecutive All-Star berths from 2019-21. The hope is that there’s still some bounce-back potential in 2023/24, when he’ll be another year removed from 2022 back surgery.

Even if Bridges continues to establish himself as a franchise cornerstone and Simmons looks more like his old self next season, the Nets won’t be a legitimate championship contender like they were when Durant, Irving, and Harden played for the team.

But there are solid building blocks in place here, and the vibes in Brooklyn this offseason should be a little more positive than they were a year ago, when Durant asked team ownership to either move him or fire GM Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash, while Irving spent weeks flirting with the idea of leaving the Nets in free agency or via trade.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Re-signing Cameron Johnson in restricted free agency will likely be the Nets’ top priority this offseason. Bridges was the centerpiece of the Durant trade, and some of the future unprotected first-round picks in that deal could become future gems, but Johnson shouldn’t be overlooked as a crucial part of Brooklyn’s return from the Suns. He’s already one of the NBA’s best outside shooters, making 41.6% of 6.0 three-pointers per game over the last two seasons, and he’s not a liability on the defensive end.

Johnson won’t come cheap, but the knee injury that cost him half the 2022/23 season may help keep his price in check, especially if none of the teams with cap room this summer make a serious push for him. Even though Johnson isn’t the two-way dynamo that Bridges is, the Nets should be happy if they can lock up Johnson to a contract identical to Bridges’ rookie scale extension (four years, $90MM). It should age well as the salary cap continues to grow in the coming years.

If the Nets commit to paying Johnson approximately $20MM in 2023/24 and guarantee the remainder of Royce O’Neale‘s $9.5MM salary (which is a lock), their team salary will exceed the projected luxury tax line.

Nets owner Joe Tsai has shown in recent years that he’s willing to spend big, but he’ll be less inclined to pay the tax for this roster than he was for the version headed by Durant, Irving, and Harden, especially with more punitive penalties for taxpaying teams coming in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Simmons, whose $37.9MM salary will be the largest on the payroll by a wide margin, is Brooklyn’s most obvious trade candidate, but moving him this offseason probably isn’t the right play. His value has cratered, so the Nets would be selling low and would almost certainly have to attach draft picks and/or a more valuable player to get anything useful in return for him. Hanging onto Simmons and hoping that he’s healthier and more productive next season is the more prudent path.

In all likelihood, at least one of Brooklyn’s veteran wings will be on the move. Joe Harris ($19.9MM), Dorian Finney-Smith ($13.9MM), and O’Neale ($9.5MM) are part of that group. Of those three, Harris is the most expensive and the weakest defender, so he’ll likely find himself on the trade block. But the Nets would get more in return for Finney-Smith or O’Neale, and losing Harris’ shooting and floor spacing could hurt, with Seth Curry headed for free agency.

In theory, the Nets would like to add more scoring and play-making, as well as more size and rebounding up front, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to address those needs directly in a trade involving one or more of their wings. The front office will likely explore many possibilities on the trade market, including three-way frameworks or scenarios in which they flip assets from one trade partner to another in separate deals.

A cost-cutting Brooklyn team with quality rotation players available would, for instance, be a logical trade partner for a Houston club that has cap space and is eager to be more competitive in 2023/24. Perhaps the Nets could dangle O’Neale in an effort to recoup one of the first-round picks they previously traded to the Rockets, then turn around and package a draft pick or two with another player (such as Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Patty Mills) in an effort to better balance their roster.

While free agency is another path Brooklyn could look at as it seeks roster upgrades, the team will be well over the cap, and its ability to use its mid-level exception will be compromised as long as its salary remains above or near the tax line. I’d expect the Nets to push to re-sign Johnson and explore what it would take to bring back Curry (especially if Harris is traded), but I wouldn’t count on an impact signing of an outside free agent.

There may be some advocates for the Nets, having traded Durant and Irving earlier this year, to take another step toward a full rebuild by moving more veterans and perhaps securing a huge package of picks and prospects for Bridges. But Brooklyn doesn’t control its own first-round pick for any of the four years from 2024-27 — the Rockets will receive the Nets’ unprotected pick in 2024 and 2026 and have swap rights in ’25 and ’27. So there’s little incentive for the franchise to bottom out.

Instead, I’d expect general manager Sean Marks to focus on making a few tweaks to the roster this offseason, then to prepare for more significant changes in 2024 when several contracts (including Dinwiddie, Harris, O’Neale, and Mills) will come off the books.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Royce O’Neale ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. O’Neale’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 10.
  • Edmond Sumner ($2,239,943)
    • Note: Sumner’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 6.
  • Total: $9,239,943

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 21 overall ($3,043,560)
  • No. 22 overall (2,922,000)
  • No. 51 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,965,560

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • Spencer Dinwiddie (veteran)
  • Joe Harris (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Curry is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for Aldridge, Chandler, and James remain on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $18,131,946
  • Trade exception: $4,494,702
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,836,090
  • Trade exception: $1,637,966

Note: The Nets would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

May 23rd, 2023 at 3:48pm CST by Rory Maher

A young team making an unexpected trip to the conference finals is never a bad thing, right? It generates money, which ownership loves. It gets fans excited for the future. The players gain valuable experience. All positive benefits.

Unfortunately, that same core group takes a step back the following season, barely sneaking into the playoffs via the play-in tournament and then losing in the first round in five games. That seems like a good time to make changes, because maybe the roster isn’t clicking in ways you’d hope.

So you make a major offseason trade to shake up the starting lineup. But the team sees its record in the following season drop to .500 and makes another quick first-round playoff exit, this time in six games.

That’s the position the Hawks find themselves in entering the 2023 offseason. The biggest change Atlanta made during the 2022/23 season was firing head coach Nate McMillan – who reportedly didn’t have a great relationship with Trae Young – and replacing him with Quin Snyder, the former Jazz coach. Snyder will have a voice in personnel decisions going forward, and it will be interesting to see what direction he wants to go with the roster.

Despite sliding down the standings and dealing away two unprotected picks (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs in the deal to acquire Dejounte Murray, the Hawks have plenty of players other teams want, so they aren’t lacking in assets. Improving the team’s defense — which ranked 22nd in the league this season — will be a priority going forward.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan:

Atlanta has 10 players on guaranteed contracts entering 2023/24 for a grand total of $162.3MM. The projected luxury tax line is $162MM, and owner Tony Ressler has never paid the tax since he bought the team in 2015.

Last offseason, the Hawks traded Kevin Huerter to the Kings to avoid being a taxpayer. Could another cost-cutting move be in store this summer? It seems highly likely, given the mediocre on-court results in ’22/23.

John Collins is the most obvious trade candidate on the roster, and his name has consistently been in the rumor mill for years now. The problem is, he’s owed $78.5MM over the next three years, and is coming off a career-worst season statistically. As such, his contract will likely be viewed as a negative asset by rival front offices.

General manager Landry Fields has publicly maintained that the team likes Collins, and the Hawks aren’t interested in simply shedding his salary. That’s understandable — it’s typical for incumbent teams to value their own players and nothing can be gained by undercutting Collins’ value — but it won’t have any bearing on how rival teams view the veteran forward.

Minnesota was interested in Clint Capela before trading for Rudy Gobert last summer, and I view the Swiss center as another logical trade candidate. He’s under contract for the next two seasons (for about $43MM), but his backup, Onyeka Okongwu, is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason, and it’s hard to envision both players being on the roster by the time ’24/25 rolls around.

The biggest offseason question the Hawks face is what to do with the backcourt pairing of Young and Murray. Despite lobbying for Murray to join Atlanta, Young didn’t show much interest in playing off the ball this year; it was mostly Murray who adjusted in that sense. That isn’t ideal, because Murray only shot 34.4% from three-point range, and teams don’t treat him as an outside threat.

Still, while it would be nice to see more synergy and off-ball movement between those two and there’s always room for improvement, offense is far from the main problem — the Hawks ranked seventh on that end in ’22/23 and have been in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons. The issue is, can two guards who ideally play the point hold up defensively? Young is one of the smallest players in the league and is always going to get targeted on that end, so it’s an uphill battle.

Of all the players under contract next season, I would be most surprised if Murray gets dealt simply because of what the team gave up to get him last year. He’s set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2024 and will likely be looking for a max contract, which puts Atlanta in a tough spot with Young already making the max and four other players making $17MM+ in ’24/25. That doesn’t even include possible rookie extensions for Okongwu and/or Saddiq Bey, whom the team acquired for five second-rounders at the trade deadline.

Very little feels settled on this roster. Almost everything should be on the table if it pushes the Hawks in the right direction. That said, despite some speculation, I don’t see Young going anywhere this summer. Perhaps if next season goes really poorly the Hawks will think about it, but it seems like it would be prudent to see how he does with a full season under Snyder first.

There is a good deal of individual talent in Atlanta, and nearly everyone under contract in ’23/24 has positive or neutral trade value. There is depth at every position, and young players complementing veterans. All things you want when building a team.

But not many of the players are well-rounded, and the payroll is about to get very expensive just as the new Collective Bargaining Agreement — which is much more punitive to the league’s taxpaying teams — is set to kick in. The Hawks will have to strike a delicate balance of acquiring the right pieces to fit the roster while watching their salary, because it’s clear more changes are needed.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Bruno Fernando ($2,581,522)
    • Note: Fernando’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Garrison Mathews ($2,000,000)
    • Note: Mathews’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 29.
  • Vit Krejci ($1,836,096)
  • Tyrese Martin ($1,719,864)
    • Note: Martin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 21.
  • Total: $8,137,482

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall ($4,033,440)
  • No. 46 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,033,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Clint Capela (veteran)
  • Vit Krejci (veteran)
  • Dejounte Murray (veteran)
  • Saddiq Bey (rookie scale)
  • Onyeka Okongwu (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $6,292,440
  • Trade exception: $2,564,980
    • Note: Expires on September 27.
  • Trade exception: $692,429
    • Note: Expires on July 6.
  • Trade exception: $46,120
    • Note: Expires on July 6.

Note: The Hawks would gain access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary remains below the tax apron.

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Community Shootaround: Celtics’ Offseason

May 21st, 2023 at 9:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Celtics completely unraveled in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Miami on Sunday night. Coming into the series as the clear favorite, the Celtics would now surprise people by avoiding a sweep after getting completely outplayed and outcoached by the Heat in the series.

Barring a miraculous turnaround, the Celtics will soon face some hard offseason decision rather than making the Finals for the second straight year. Most notably, they have to figure out what to do about their coaching situation and whether to break up their All-Star duo.

Joe Mazzulla had the interim tag removed and received a contract extension in mid-February. The young coach handled himself well during the regular season after getting thrown into the fire following Ime Udoka‘s suspension. He also guided the Celtics past the first two rounds, but has looked overmatched trying to match wits with Miami’s Erik Spoelstra.

Another hot topic of discussion will be Jaylen Brown‘s future. His contract expires after next season and it may behoove the Celtics’ front office to explore trade possibilities for the star wing, who has played poorly in the series.

They’ll also have to decide what to do with Grant Williams, who will be a restricted free agent after being in and out of the rotation this postseason. What price are they willing to match for him, considering their other salary obligations?

Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams and Derrick White are all under contract through at least the 2024/25 season. Tatum isn’t going anywhere, but the Celtics might look to deal one of those veterans to shake up the rotation and fix the issues that have been exposed by the Heat.

That brings up to our topic of the day: What changes should the Celtics make this offseason?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to your input.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

May 21st, 2023 at 12:13pm CST by Luke Adams

As Larry Coon explains in his invaluable CBA FAQ, the term “base year compensation” technically no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have mostly been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA in recent years, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is his full new salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Nets want to sign-and-trade Cameron Johnson this offseason. He’s a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and Brooklyn projects to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $5,887,899 in 2018/19, Johnson figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — his next deal could easily start at or above $20MM. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a deal with a $22MM starting salary as part of a sign-and-trade, Johnson’s salary for matching purposes from the Nets’ perspective would be $11MM, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Johnson’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $22MM.

James Harden is another top free agent who would meet the BYC criteria if he’s signed-and-traded by the Sixers this offseason. If he gets a maximum salary contract – projected to be worth $46.9MM for a player with his NBA experience – Harden’s outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $33MM, the amount he made in 2022/23 — that figure would be higher than 50% of his new salary.

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little incentive to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, which can be complicated by base year compensation rules.

In the scenario outlined above, the Nets wouldn’t be able to take back more than $16MM in salary in exchange for Johnson due to the league’s matching rules. That number would dip to $13.85MM if Brooklyn’s team salary is above the tax apron.

However, in order to take on $22MM in incoming salary, Brooklyn’s hypothetical trade partner – assuming they’re over the cap – would have to send out at least $17MM in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives complicates sign-and-trade talks, requiring both clubs to include additional pieces to make the deal work. A third team could even be necessary to make the numbers line up.

One recent example of two teams navigating base year compensation rules to complete a sign-and-trade occurred last September, when the Cavaliers sent Collin Sexton to the Jazz as part of the Donovan Mitchell blockbuster. Sexton’s first-year salary was $16.5MM, which was the amount Utah had to account for when matching salaries. But from Cleveland’s perspective, Sexton’s outgoing salary was just $8.25MM, half of that amount, since he met the BYC criteria.

In packaging Sexton with Lauri Markkanen and Ochai Agbaji, the Cavs’ outgoing salary for matching purposes was $28.6MM, which was enough to accommodate Mitchell’s $30.9MM salary. From Utah’s perspective, the three incoming players were worth $36.9MM in incoming salary when taking into account Sexton’s full cap hit. But the Jazz were permitted to take back up to approximately $38.7MM (125% of Mitchell’s salary, plus $100K), so the deal worked for both sides.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over sign-and-trade attempts involving free agents who receive significant raises, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

Previous versions of this post were published in 2019 and 2022.

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Poll: Who Should Hornets Draft With No. 2 Pick?

May 21st, 2023 at 11:13am CST by Luke Adams

They’ll miss out on generational prospect Victor Wembanyama, but the Hornets still had a great night on Tuesday at the draft lottery, moving up from No. 4 in the pre-lottery standings to nab the No. 2 overall pick.

Given that Wembanyama is a lock to be drafted first overall, Charlotte can prepare for draft knowing that every other player in this year’s class will be available after San Antonio makes its selection. There shouldn’t be any surprises for the Hornets, so assuming they keep their pick, it’s simply a matter of deciding which non-Wembanyama prospect they like the best.

That list figures to start with two players: G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson and Alabama wing Brandon Miller.

When the 2022/23 season began, Henderson was widely considered a close runner-up to Wembanyama among this year’s top prospects — the two players were in a tier of their own, with Henderson viewed as a prospect who would be a worthy No. 1 overall pick in most years. He’s an explosive guard with excellent court vision who can be a primary play-maker on offense and shows plenty of promise as a backcourt defender.

However, Henderson had an up-and-down season with the Ignite, struggling with his shot in 19 regular season G League games — he made just 42.9% of his attempts from the field, including 27.5% of his three-pointers. Throw in the fact that the Hornets’ incumbent franchise player – LaMelo Ball – is a lead guard and you could make the case that Henderson might not be the best match for Charlotte.

If they’re not sold on Henderson, the Hornets’ top choice may be Miller, whose stock rose substantially over the course of the NCAA season. When Jonathan Givony of ESPN published a mock draft last October, Miller was the No. 19 pick, but the 6’9″ forward had a huge year for the Crimson Tide, averaging 18.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.1 APG while making 38.4% of his 7.5 three-point attempts per game.

In Givony’s most recent mock draft, he has Miller going to the Hornets at No. 2, writing that the 20-year-old’s ability to shoot, facilitate, and defend multiple positions makes him the “archetypal player every NBA team is currently searching for.”

While Miller is probably the better positional fit for Charlotte, his long-term ceiling may fall short of Henderson’s, and any franchise that drafts him will want to learn all it can about his character off the court. Miller was involved in a troubling story in Tuscaloosa over the winter, having brought former Alabama teammate Darius Miles the gun that was used in the killing of Jamea Jonae Harris.

Miller, who insisted that he didn’t know the gun was in the car, wasn’t charged with a crime and was described as a cooperative witness in the case. So while NBA executives will have plenty of questions for the Alabama wing about the incident, there has been a sense that it won’t hurt his draft stock.

“I don’t believe there will be any impact unless he lies in his interviews,” one executive recently told David Aldridge of The Athletic. “Integrity is more relevant than criminal friends; one we can fix, the other, we can’t.”

After Henderson and Miller, the consensus among draft experts is that there’s drop-off before the next tier of prospects, but the Hornets will certainly do their homework on a group that includes Overtime Elite twins Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson, Villanova wing Cam Whitmore, Houston forward Jarace Walker, and Arkansas guard Anthony Black, among others.

Trading the pick is also an option for the Hornets, but Charlotte isn’t believed to leaning toward an aggressive win-now approach this offseason in the same way that the two teams drafting behind them (Portland at No. 3 and Houston at No. 4) are. I can imagine scenarios in which the Hornets trade down from No. 2 to No. 3, but it’s hard to envision them moving out of the top three entirely.

We want to know what you think. If we assume the Hornets keep their pick at No. 2 and Wembanyama is off the board, which player should they draft? Do you think there’s a different between the player they should draft and the one they will select? Would you seriously consider anyone besides Henderson and Miller? Should Charlotte seriously consider trading the pick?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in!

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