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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 19th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Rory Maher

After winning between 22 and 31 games for four straight seasons from 2018-21, the Bulls took a major step forward in the first half of 2021/22, going 27-13 with offseason additions DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball playing key roles in their success. They were the No. 1 seed in the East on January 14 of last year.

Unfortunately, Ball tore his meniscus that day against Golden State, and hasn’t played a game since, having undergone three different knee surgeries to address persistent pain. Caruso dealt with multiple injuries of his own, and the Bulls weren’t the same team the rest of the way, going 19-23 to close out the season and getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.

Caruso was healthier in ’22/23, but Ball’s void was felt all season long, with Chicago going 40-42 and entering the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. The Bulls were able to sneak past Toronto thanks to late-game heroics by Zach LaVine (after the Raptors went 18-of-36 on free throws and blew a 19-point lead), but fell in a close game to the Heat, who advanced as the No. 8 seed.

Chicago is a hard team to pin down. You would expect a club led by three offense-first multi-time All-Stars to be highly effective on that end, but after ranking 13th last season, they were just 24th in offensive rating in ’22/23. Similarly, you would not expect them to be stout defensively, yet after ranking 23rd a year ago, they had the fifth-best defense in the league this season.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

Chicago has a couple great players (LaVine and DeRozan), an All-Defensive First Team guard (Caruso), and some young talent. Still, it feels like the Bulls are stuck in no-man’s land.

A big part of that is due to Ball’s balky knee, and there’s still no timetable for his return – it’s possible his career could be over. It has been a brutal series of events, because Ball is a very good two-way player. The Bulls have gone just 59-65 since he was injured – a large sample size of blah play.

Having a $20.5MM cap hit on your books (and a $21.4MM player option for ‘24/25 that Ball will certainly exercise) for a player who might not play at all for a second consecutive season really hurts your team’s flexibility. It’s no one’s fault either. Sure, Ball had injuries in the past, but nothing like this.

The Nikola Vucevic trade was an unmitigated disaster, but the Bulls don’t have a viable way to replace the impending free agent’s production, so it feels like they need to extend him, re-sign him, or at least explore sign-and-trade scenarios. They can’t just lose him for nothing. He played well in 2022/23 after a down year in ’21/22, but he’s limited defensively and will be 33 years old at the start of next season.

That deal is why the Bulls don’t have a lottery pick in June’s draft — it landed 11th overall and will be sent to Orlando to complete the trade (they also gave up Wendell Carter and their 2021 first-round pick, which turned into Franz Wagner – ouch). Chicago also doesn’t control its second-rounder (via Denver) due to free agency gun-jumping when the team completed its sign-and-trade for Ball.

With nearly $112MM committed to just six players, and a couple of $3.4MM player options (Andre Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr.), becoming a cap room team doesn’t make sense. Even if Drummond and Jones opt out, the Bulls would only be able to create about $16MM in space. They would be better off re-signing some of their own free agents and using their $12.2MM non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but they can’t just bring back the same core roster again and expect different results.

DeRozan turns 34 years old this summer, is entering the final year of his contract, and will be eligible for a veteran extension. That makes him a logical trade candidate, but his age, expiring deal, subpar defense and well-documented playoff struggles somewhat limit his market value.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a ton of respect for DeRozan. You can tell he puts a ton of work into his craft, and he has improved tremendously throughout his career. I’m just not sure how much the Bulls could realistically get for him if they made him available – maybe a late lottery pick, matching salaries and a decent young player? That’s nothing to sneeze at, but it could take a while to translate into wins.

LaVine would have far more trade value. He’s only 28 and is under contract for four more years (the last year is a player option). The Knicks are a logical suitor, and reportedly talked to the Bulls about him ahead of the February deadline.

Do the Bulls want to trade the player they tried to build around? Do the Knicks want to trade multiple first-round picks and young players for a star who is a legitimately great shooter and scorer (they do need both of those things), but isn’t a great defender or decision-maker?

I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know Chicago’s current roster isn’t good enough to contend for a title and isn’t bad enough to land a top draft pick. The Bulls have to pick a path.

There’s nothing preventing the Bulls from trading both of their stars and starting from scratch. They could always prioritize young players instead of draft capital if they want to retool instead of doing a full-fledged rebuild. Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well – the defensive stalwart drew a lot of interest leading up to the trade deadline and is on a team-friendly contract through ‘24/25, so he’d have quite a bit of value.

Aside from the big-picture roster questions, forward Patrick Williams will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer. I’d be a little surprised if a deal gets done. While Williams has a lot of upside, he’s also been very inconsistent (which is normal for a young player). I suspect there might be a gap in what his agents are looking for and what the team wants to pay.

That said, I would not trade Williams if I were running the team. He could be special if he figures it out, and even if he doesn’t, he’d still be coveted due to his two-way skill set. I’d also re-sign Coby White, who’s a restricted free agent – I think he’ll get somewhere around the mid-level exception, and he’s improved from his first couple seasons.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Carlik Jones ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Jones would receive a partial guarantee ($250K) if he’s not waived on or before the first day of the 2023/24 regular season.
  • Marko Simonovic ($1,836,096)
    • Note: Simonovic’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 7.
  • Total: $3,763,992

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
  • Marko Simonovic (veteran)
  • Patrick Williams (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Bulls would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

May 18th, 2023 at 2:08pm CST by Rory Maher

The Magic have been the worst team in the NBA over the past decade, recording a 289-512 record in the last 10 seasons. They won fewer than 30 games in six of those campaigns, only finishing above .500 once (42-40), when they lost in the first round of the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. For starters, Orlando exceeded external expectations in 2022/23, increasing its year-end win total from 22 to 34.

With two lottery picks in 2023 (sixth and 11th), an extra first-round pick via Denver in 2025, all of their own future firsts, and several extra seconds, the Magic have a nice haul of draft assets. They also have an impressive young core headlined by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero and standout sophomore Franz Wagner.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

If they really wanted to, the Magic could create nearly $60MM in cap room this summer if they choose not to guarantee any of their own salaries and renounce all of their free agents and cap holds (aside from the lottery picks). That’s highly unlikely though.

The far more realistic scenario is they’ll have somewhere in the range of $25-45MM in cap room, depending on what they do with Gary Harris and Jonathan Isaac. Harris’ $13MM contract for next season is fully non-guaranteed, while Isaac — who has played just 11 games over the past three seasons — has a $17.4MM cap hit, of which only $7.6MM is guaranteed.

Markelle Fultz should be a lock to have his full $17MM salary for ‘23/24 guaranteed – he’s only owed $2MM as of now. The former first overall pick played a major role in the Magic turning their season around. After Orlando started 5-16 without him, Fultz appeared in 60 of the team’s 61 remaining games — the Magic had a 29-31 record in those 60 games, losing the lone contest he sat in April.

The young guard has been plagued by injuries throughout his six NBA seasons, only appearing in 191 total games. But he was productive when healthy in ‘22/23, averaging career highs in points (14.0), assists (5.7), rebounds (3.9), steals (1.5), and minutes per game (29.6), as well as field goal percentage (51.4%).

Fultz still struggles from long distance, converting just 31% of his three-pointers on low volume (1.5 attempts per game). However, he’s an explosive and crafty finisher around the rim, is quite accurate on mid-range jumpers (45.8%, which ranked in the 70th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com), and is a solid defensive player.

There are three reasons why I’m discussing Fultz so extensively. One, if the Magic guarantee his salary, he’ll be eligible for an extension. Two, his outside shooting woes affect the rest of the team, because it’s the biggest roster weakness. Three, it has been floated that Orlando might pursue a veteran point guard with its cap space, with Fred VanVleet being rumored as a target.

Is VanVleet a better player than Fultz right now? Yes. He’s a far more willing – and better – outside shooter than Fultz, even if he’s coming off a highly erratic campaign that saw him post a career-low 34.2% from beyond the arc. He’s also four years older and looked a half step slower on defense in ‘22/23.

VanVleet is rumored to be seeking a contract similar to what Jrue Holiday received a couple years ago, which was $135MM over four years (incentives increased the value a bit). I like VanVleet, and he has outplayed his current contract. But I don’t think he’s worth double Fultz’s salary, particularly with Cole Anthony eligible for a rookie scale extension and Jalen Suggs still having two years left on his rookie contract.

If I were running the Magic, I would rather let those young guards and the rest of the roster continue to develop, and look to add younger wing talent and shooting via the draft and less expensive free agent targets.

Some potential free agent names of interest: Austin Reaves (restricted), Cameron Johnson (restricted), Gary Trent Jr. (player option), Donte DiVincenzo (player option) and Max Strus (unrestricted). Johnson shares positional overlap at forward with Banchero and Wagner, but I don’t think that’s a big deal – he’s great at playing off the ball and is one of the best shooters on the market (the Magic have also shown a willingness to experiment with position-less lineups).

Orlando’s only real rotation player who’s a free agent is Moritz Wagner, who had a solid season as the backup center. The Magic have his Bird rights, so they won’t have to earmark cap room or an exception to re-sign him, assuming they want him back.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Markelle Fultz ($15,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Fultz’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Gary Harris ($13,000,000)
    • Note: Harris’ salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Jonathan Isaac ($9,800,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee.
  • Bol Bol ($2,200,000)
    • Note: Bol’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $40,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall ($7,137,840)
  • No. 11 overall ($4,952,160)
  • No. 36 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,090,000

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Markelle Fultz (veteran)
  • Jonathan Isaac (veteran)
  • Cole Anthony (rookie scale)
  • Chuma Okeke (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Magic’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $7,609,000
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Full 2023 NBA Draft Order

May 16th, 2023 at 10:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2023 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 23, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2023 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. San Antonio Spurs
  2. Charlotte Hornets
  3. Portland Trail Blazers
  4. Houston Rockets
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Indiana Pacers
  8. Washington Wizards
  9. Utah Jazz
  10. Dallas Mavericks
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
  13. Toronto Raptors
  14. New Orleans Pelicans
  15. Atlanta Hawks
  16. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Miami Heat
  19. Golden State Warriors
  20. Houston Rockets (from Clippers)
  21. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  22. Brooklyn Nets
  23. Portland Trail Blazers (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Memphis Grizzlies
  26. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  27. Charlotte Hornets (from Nuggets)
  28. Utah Jazz (from Sixers)
  29. Indiana Pacers (from Celtics)
  30. Los Angeles Clippers (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Indiana Pacers (from Rockets)
  3. San Antonio Spurs
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Boston Celtics (from Trail Blazers)
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Wizards)
  8. Sacramento Kings (from Pacers)
  9. Charlotte Hornets (from Jazz)
  10. Denver Nuggets (from Mavericks)
  11. Charlotte Hornets (from Thunder)
  12. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  13. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  14. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  15. Memphis Grizzlies (from Timberwolves)
  16. Atlanta Hawks (from Pelicans)
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Los Angeles Clippers
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Warriors)
  20. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  21. Brooklyn Nets
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Knicks)
  24. Sacramento Kings
  25. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  26. Memphis Grizzlies
  27. Chicago Bulls (from Nuggets)
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Washington Wizards (from Celtics)
  30. Milwaukee Bucks
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 16th, 2023 at 2:49pm CST by Rory Maher

The Wizards haven’t had a 50-win season since 1978/79, when they lost in the NBA Finals after winning the title the year before. In fact, they’ve only won more than 45 games twice over the lengthy period since then — both in the mid-2010s when John Wall-led teams made the Eastern Conference Semifinals a few times.

Things went about as expected in ’22/23. Washington’s over/under entering the season was 35.5 wins, and the team won exactly 35 for the second consecutive season.

There were some positive developments — Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had career years, while Corey Kispert turned into a solid rotation player in year two — but they were mostly offset by disappointments in other areas. Bradley Beal was plagued by injuries for the second straight season and lottery pick Johnny Davis spent most of his rookie season in the G League, struggling when he did get NBA minutes.

The Wizards, who finished 22nd in the league in offense and 21st in defense, don’t really have an identity on either end of the court (they were 21st in offense and 25th in defense in ‘21/22).

Where the Wizards go from here is an open question. They don’t have the types of young players teams typically build around, nor the cache of future draft picks (they actually owe a protected first to the Knicks). Getting lucky in the draft lottery would be a good start – the Wizards have the eighth-best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 28.9% chance at a top-four selection.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

What many league observers think the Wizards should do and what they actually do are often at odds. Maybe that will change when the team hires a new head of basketball operations after firing Tommy Sheppard.

Either way, it’s an important offseason for the Wizards. Kuzma has already said he plans to turn down his $13MM player option to secure a larger payday. Will Porzingis decline his $36MM option as well? Perhaps. There were reportedly “serious” talks regarding an extension a couple months ago, but that was before the front office change. It’s impossible to know how a new regime would feel about that.

Porzingis had an outstanding season, making a positive impact on both sides of the ball. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s theoretically in his prime. He has also missed extended time due to injuries throughout his career. Re-signing him is a risk, but Washington doesn’t have a ready-made replacement on its roster.

If both players decline their options and the Wizards renounce their other free agents and cap holds (except their first-round pick), they’d have about $30MM in cap room to work with. I don’t see which players they could target with that money that would be better than Kuzma and Porzingis. A sign-and-trade involving one (or both) theoretically could work if Washington wants reshuffle the deck.

Former first-round pick Deni Avdija will be eligible for a rookie scale extension as well. He has a good feel for the game and is a solid defender, but his jump shot is very erratic. Trading Rui Hachimura freed up playing time for Avdija, and he played well down the stretch. Still, it’s hard to envision any rush to extend him unless it’s a team-friendly rate.

Perhaps the biggest question facing the Wizards hasn’t changed: Is Beal a star worth building around? There are multiple seasons worth of evidence indicating the answer is no.

The issue is that he’s coming off two injury-riddled seasons and still has four years and more than $200MM left on his contract — his value is arguably at its lowest point in years. Washington would likely get pennies on the dollar in return for the veteran guard unless they find a team that thinks Beal would push it over the hump.

Would Philadelphia be interested in a Beal for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris trade? Harris’ deal is expiring and Maxey is going to command a significant payday soon, as he’s about to enter the final season of his rookie deal. Is that enough of a return for Beal?

For some inexplicable reason, the Wizards gave Beal a full no-trade clause when he signed his contract last summer, a rarity in the NBA. So even if they find a suitable deal, he’d still have to approve it.

Locking in an expensive long-term core of Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis isn’t going to move the needle toward winning in any meaningful way. They’re all good players individually, but not good enough to be a top-three trio on a serious contender.

There are players with positive value on the roster, though they’re not going to return a haul of assets. Monte Morris and Delon Wright are quality backups that lots of teams would like to have, for example, and they’re entering the final years of their contracts.

There are no easy answers for this team. Owner Ted Leonsis hasn’t shown any appetite for a temporary tank despite the mediocre product of the past handful of years. The foundation is rickety, and the Wizards haven’t had success drafting in the 9-15 range over that span.

I don’t envy the person who takes over the front office of this franchise. Things can change quickly in the NBA, but it’s hard to see how the Wizards get significantly better without getting even worse than they have been lately.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jordan Goodwin ($1,627,896)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Goodwin’s partial guarantee increases to $963,948 if he isn’t waived on or before September 1.
  • Total: $1,627,896

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 8 overall ($5,969,400)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 42 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 41 if the Thunder end up with a higher first-round pick than the Bulls via the lottery.
  • No. 57 overall (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,969,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kristaps Porzingis (veteran)
  • Kyle Kuzma (veteran)
  • Monte Morris (veteran)
  • Isaiah Todd (veteran)
  • Deni Avdija (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $6,263,188

Note: The Wizards would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron. If the Wizards go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Eastern Conference Finals?

May 16th, 2023 at 8:57am CST by Luke Adams

For the second season in a row and the third time in the last four years, the Celtics and the Heat will face one another in the Eastern Conference Finals, battling for the right to play in the NBA Finals. The series will tip off on Wednesday night in Boston.

[RELATED: Which team will win Western Conference Finals?]

The odds of the Heat making it back to the Eastern Finals appeared slim when the postseason began. After finishing the regular season seventh in the conference, Miami needed two play-in games to secure its playoff berth, then saw one of its top scorers – sharpshooter Tyler Herro – break his hand during the first half of Game 1 against the top-seeded Bucks.

Despite injuries to Herro and reserve guard Victor Oladipo, as well as the history of futility for No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs, the Heat pulled off an impressive five-game upset of Milwaukee, then defeated the No. 5 Knicks in the second round to advance to the third round.

Jimmy Butler, who has been the Heat’s leading scorer in every single game he has played during the playoffs (he missed Game 2 of the Knicks series due to an ankle sprain), has been the difference-maker for the franchise. After averaging 22.9 points per game during the season, “Playoff Jimmy” has bumped that number to 31.1 PPG in the postseason, chipping in 6.6 RPG, 5.4 APG, and 1.7 SPG with an impressive .527/.361/.792 shooting line.

Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is anchoring the defense and providing secondary scoring, have been buoyed by a supporting cast featuring Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and a resurgent Kyle Lowry, leading the Heat to an improbably deep run. Miami will be looking to become the first No. 8 seed in NBA history to win a title — if they can get past Boston, the Heat will become just the second eighth seed in league history to even make the NBA Finals, joining the 1999 Knicks.

To advance to the Finals though, the Heat will have to defeat a Celtics team that held the East’s top seed for much of the season and ultimately ended up No. 2 with 57 wins.

Boston had a league-best +6.7 net rating during the regular season, posting the NBA’s second-best offensive rating (117.3) and finishing second in defensive rating (110.6) too. The offense has been even better (118.1) during the postseason and the defense (111.0) has shown no sign of slipping.

This is a talented, well-rounded team led by a pair of star wings – Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown – and featuring strong defenders all over the court, including guards Marcus Smart and Derrick White and big men Robert Williams and Al Horford.

While Miami should have the head coaching advantage in the series, which pits long-tenured Heat coach Erik Spoelstra against Celtics first-timer Joe Mazzulla, there’s little question that Boston has the talent edge on the court. Currently, BetOnline.ag lists the Celtics as significant betting favorites — Boston is -550 to advance to the NBA Finals, while the Heat are +430 underdogs.

But the Heat have defied the odds to even make it this far. Can they do it again? We want to know what you think. Which team will represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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2023 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 16th, 2023 at 7:33am CST by Luke Adams

The 2023 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Nuggets and Lakers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm Central time.

This year’s draft pool features potential superstar Victor Wembanyama, who is widely considered to be the best prospect to enter the NBA draft since LeBron James in 2003.

Other prospects, including Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller, would make terrific consolation prizes, but every team with a lottery pick will enter Tuesday night dreaming on the possibility of landing the No. 1 selection and drafting the French phenom Wembanyama.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2023 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. San Antonio Spurs
  4. Charlotte Hornets
  5. Portland Trail Blazers
  6. Orlando Magic
  7. Indiana Pacers
  8. Washington Wizards
  9. Utah Jazz
  10. Dallas Mavericks
    • Note: The Knicks will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10.
  11. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four.
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
  13. Toronto Raptors
  14. New Orleans Pelicans

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Hornets (12.5%), Trail Blazers (10.5%), Magic (9.0%), Pacers (6.8%), and Wizards (6.7%) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall pick.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Still, there haven’t been many huge surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.

The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.

Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shake-up in 2023. There’s a 19.2% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to about 1-in-5 odds, and this will be the fifth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Dallas and Chicago finished as lottery teams in 2022/23, but each may have to convey its first-round pick to another team, depending on Tuesday’s results.

The Mavericks traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Knicks, but would keep that selection if it lands within the top 10. There’s a 79.8% chance that will happen and a 20.2% chance it will slip to No. 11 or below and be sent to New York.

If Dallas retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2024 first-round pick (top-10 protected) to the Knicks.

The Bulls, meanwhile, owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. There’s just an 8.5% chance Chicago will hang onto that selection and a 91.5% chance it will fall between Nos. 11-14 and be sent to Orlando.

If the Bulls get lucky and move into the top four, they’d owe Orlando their 2024 first-round pick with top-three protection.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Ben Wallace (basketball operations and team engagement advisor)
    • Lottery room: Jon Phelps (senior director of basketball strategy)
  2. Houston Rockets

    • On stage: Ime Udoka (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  3. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: Peter J. Holt (team owner)
    • Lottery room: Brian Wright (general manager)
  4. Charlotte Hornets

    • On stage: Mark Williams
    • Lottery room: Buzz Peterson (general manager / senior VP of basketball operations)
  5. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Brandon Roy (former Trail Blazers player)
    • Lottery room: Sergi Oliva (assistant GM)
  6. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jamahl Mosley (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  7. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Tyrese Haliburton
    • Lottery room: Kevin Pritchard (president of basketball operations)
  8. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Brett Greenberg (assistant GM / strategy and analytics)
  9. Utah Jazz

  10. Dallas Mavericks

    • On stage: Nico Harrison (president of basketball operations / general manager)
    • Lottery room: Michael Finley (assistant GM / VP of player personnel)
  11. Chicago Bulls

    • On stage: Dalen Terry
    • Lottery room: Pat Connelly (assistant GM)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / amateur evaluation scout)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  13. Toronto Raptors

    • On stage: Bobby Webster (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Teresa Resch (VP of basketball operations)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans
    • On stage: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Bryson Graham (assistant GM)
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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 14th, 2023 at 9:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Nothing about the Thunder‘s offseason moves in 2022 signaled that they were preparing to make a playoff push. Oklahoma City’s lottery selection, No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren, suffered a season-ending injury before training camps opened, and the team’s most notable offseason addition via free agency or trade was Isaiah Joe, who signed a low-cost contract days before the regular season began after being waived by Philadelphia.

But the young core the Thunder have been putting together since they began the process of rebuilding in 2019 finally began to look like something resembling a future contender this past season, even with Holmgren not yet a part of it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the leap to superstardom, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team; 2021 lottery pick Josh Giddey built on a promising rookie season by improving his numbers across the board, including bumping his shooting percentage from 41.9% to 48.2%; Luguentz Dort continued to establish himself as one of the NBA’s elite wing defenders; and 2022 lottery pick Jalen Williams made a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year honors, averaging 18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.3 APG on an incredible .546/.429/.880 shooting line after the All-Star break.

The Thunder didn’t make the playoffs, but they got pretty close. They finished the regular season as the No. 10 team in the West, then beat the Pelicans in their first play-in game before falling to the Timberwolves in the battle for the conference’s final playoff spot.

While the Thunder aren’t a contender yet, their days at the bottom of the NBA’s standings appear to be over for now. With Holmgren and another lottery pick set to join an already strong core and a plethora of extra future first-round picks and swaps still on hand, Oklahoma City is trending in the right direction and could be a force to be reckoned with in the West in just a couple of years.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

The hope of every tanking team is to luck into a top pick that can be used to draft a player capable of single-handedly transforming the franchise. There’s a player like that available in this year’s draft class – Victor Wembanyama is considered the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – but the Thunder’s unexpectedly strong season all but eliminated them from the Wembanyama sweepstakes — the club has just a 1.7% chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

That’s OK though. While Sam Presti and the Thunder’s front office would certainly love to add Wembanyama to the roster, this isn’t a team that desperately needs the French phenom like certain other clubs in the lottery. There’s already a very strong foundation here, and Oklahoma City’s stash of future picks puts the team in position to acquire another impact player without even touching the present core.

Still, I’d be surprised if a trade for a star is on the docket this summer. Presti and his group have shown a willingness to be patient throughout their rebuild, using their extra trade assets to target specific players they like in the draft rather than veterans.

That approach was on display last June when the Thunder traded three protected future first-rounders for the rights to the No. 11 pick, ensuring no team would be able to leapfrog them at No. 12 to snag Williams. The Thunder ultimately drafted Ousmane Dieng with the No. 11 pick, but subsequent reporting indicated Williams was the guy they wanted most in the back end of the lottery — they took him with their own pick at No. 12 in case their tentative agreement for No. 11 fell through before it became official.

Oklahoma City will most likely have the No. 12 pick again in this year’s draft. But if there’s a player a few spots higher that the front office wants badly enough, the team has the ammo necessary to go get him without compromising its future at all.

Eventually, the time may come to cash in some of those future draft picks for a win-now player, but the way the Thunder are building makes sense and has worked for Presti before; Kevin Durant, Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka were all drafted by the team between 2007-09. With no postseason-or-bust mandate facing him, Presti can continue to add promising young pieces to this core and assess which ones fit and which ones don’t before making any major moves to fill the necessary holes.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder won’t do anything interesting this summer. Taking into account the team’s 10 players on guaranteed contracts, plus Joe’s $2MM non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 12 overall pick, OKC could create upwards of $36MM in cap room.

In recent years, the Thunder have taken advantage of that sort of cap flexibility by accommodating salary dumps of unwanted contracts (think Kemba Walker and Derrick Favors) in order to acquire draft assets.

They’re more likely to go in that direction again than they are to go big-game hunting in free agency, but perhaps in those trade talks with cost-cutting teams the Thunder will prioritize acquiring useful rotation players rather than continuing to stockpile future draft picks. Even if they won’t be contending for a title in 2024, the Thunder might like to get their young players some playoff experience — adding a couple reliable role-playing veterans to their rotation would aid in that effort.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Aleksej Pokusevski, the lone Thunder player who is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Pokusevski, a seven-footer who can handle the ball, is still just 21 years old and has shown tantalizing potential in his first three NBA seasons, increasing his three-point percentage to 36.5% in 2022/23.

However, a leg injury essentially ended Pokusevski’s season on December 27 (he appeared in just three games after that), and OKC had a dismal minus-13.2 net rating and 118.7 defensive rating when he was on the court this season, easily the worst marks of any player on the roster. The Thunder will soon have to decide whether he has a place in their future.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 12 overall ($4,704,720)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • No. 35 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 50 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
  • No. 37 overall (no cap hold)
    • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 38 overall pick if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,704,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (veteran)
  • Dario Saric (veteran)
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Saric is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
  • Trade exception: $4,264,629
  • Trade exception: $4,220,057
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $943,000
    • Note: Expires on October 2.
  • Trade exception: $781,759
    • Note: Expires on September 27.

Note: If the Thunder go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.

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Community Shootaround: Sixers’ Decisions

May 14th, 2023 at 6:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It all came crashing down on the Sixers on Sunday afternoon.

They positioned themselves to reach the Eastern Conference Finals by taking a 3-2 lead over the Celtics in their second-round series. Philadelphia failed to close out Boston at home, then got humiliated with a second-half flop on the Celtics’ home floor on Sunday afternoon.

Coach Doc Rivers is in a familiar place, failing to get his team to over the hump in the postseason. Rivers couldn’t get the Clippers to take the next step and that pattern has repeated in Philadelphia.

Joel Embiid achieved the highest individual honor this season, capturing his first Most Valuable Player, but he was a no-show in Game 7. He went 5-for-18 from the field and finished with 15 points in 38 minutes. Embiid also committed four turnovers, one fewer than the team’s other star.

James Harden had a couple of huge games in the series but he fizzled out with two chances to close out the series. He scored 13 points in Game 6 and nine in Game 7 while committing a combined 10 turnovers in the two games.

Harden holds a player option on his contract and there has been plenty of speculation that he’s eyeing a return to Houston for the next chapter of his career. Tobias Harris will make over $39MM in the final year of his contract next season.

Tyrese Maxey will be eligible for a rookie scale extension and will certainly be looking for big money, if not a max deal. The Sixers will have a lot of decisions to make regarding their bench as well, including whether to pursue some of their own free agents such as Paul Reed and Georges Niang.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Should the Sixers fire Doc Rivers after their latest postseason disappointment? Should top exec Daryl Morey go as well? Should they try to re-sign Harden if he opts out? How should they retool their roster to finally reach the Finals with Embiid in his prime?

Please take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Poll: Who Will Win Game 7 Of Celtics/Sixers?

May 14th, 2023 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

For just the second time this spring and the first time in the conference semifinals, we’re getting a Game 7.

The Celtics and Sixers will square off on Sunday afternoon for the right to face Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s the first Game 7 on the East’s side of the playoff bracket — the Kings and Warriors battled to seven games in the first round in the West.

It has been a back-and-forth series between Boston and Philadelphia, with the Sixers unexpectedly stealing Game 1 in Boston despite missing MVP center Joel Embiid. The Celtics responded by claiming the next two games to take a 2-1 lead, but Philadelphia fought back to go up 3-2 before dropping Game 6 at home.

As the higher seed and the home team, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites on Sunday, according to BetOnline.ag. But the fact that the game will be played in Boston offers no guarantees for the C’s. The home team in the series has gone just 2-4 so far, with each club losing multiple games in its own arena.

While the Sixers probably know what they can expect from Embiid, who has averaged 30.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG in his last four appearances after a shaky first game back from a knee injury, what they get from the big man’s co-star may go a long way toward determining whether they can pull off the upset win in Game 7. James Harden has put up 34.7 PPG on 60.7% shooting in Philadelphia’s three victories over Boston, but has averaged just 13.7 PPG and made 20.5% of his shots from the floor in the team’s three losses.

The Celtics, meanwhile, got a boost in Game 6 when they inserted center Robert Williams into their starting lineup for the first time in the series. Williams had 10 points, nine rebounds, and two blocks in one of his best games of the postseason. The Celtics, who won the game by nine points, outscored Philadelphia by 18 points during Williams’ 28 minutes. It’s probably safe to assume he’ll start again on Sunday.

Boston will also be hoping to see the version of Jayson Tatum who showed up during the final few minutes of Thursday’s game, helping the team overcome a late deficit and secure the victory. With the Celtics down by two points with under five minutes to play, Tatum made four of his final seven shots, all three-pointers, after having hit just 1-of-14 field goal attempts up until that point.

The Celtics were the deeper, more well-rounded team during the regular season and have shown off that depth in the postseason, but the Sixers have proven in the playoffs that they’re capable of winning any game when Embiid, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey – who has averaged 23.3 PPG in Philadelphia’s victories – are firing on all cylinders.

We want to know what you think. Who are you picking to win Game 7 this afternoon?

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2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 13th, 2023 at 2:31pm CST by Luke Adams

A playoff team for seven straight years from 2014-20, the Raptors won just 27 games in 2020/21 while playing their home games in Tampa due to COVID-related border restrictions, then got some lottery luck that spring, landing the No. 4 pick and nabbing Scottie Barnes.

When Toronto racked up 48 wins in 2021/22, it looked like that lost ’20/21 season would just be a blip on the radar, with the club poised to reclaim its place as a playoff fixture in the East. So it came as a major disappointment when the Raptors went just 41-41 in ’22/23, their worst record in a non-Tampa season since 2012/13, and were quickly eliminated from the play-in tournament.

On paper, the Raptors looked like a team that should have finished better than .500. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have All-Star appearances on their résumés and are still in their prime. Barnes was coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign. OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are the types of three-and-D players that every NBA team covets. And Toronto even addressed its hole in the middle by reacquiring Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio in February.

The individuals were better than the sum of the parts though, and a thin, inconsistent bench that lost Otto Porter to a foot injury early in the season didn’t help matters. Heading into the 2023 offseason, top executives Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster will have to determine which players are still considered long-term cornerstones and which might be expendable in trades to breathe new life into the roster.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

Before the Raptors make any player personnel decisions, they’ll have to determine who will be coaching the team this fall. Nick Nurse, an assistant on Dwane Casey‘s staff until 2018, won a championship in 2019 in his first year as head coach, then was named Coach of the Year in 2020. But his last few years were more of a mixed bag, with Nurse leaning too heavily on his starters and perhaps not connecting with his players in the same way he once did. The club parted ways with him last month.

Toronto’s list of interviewees is longer than that of any other team conducting a head coaching search this spring, with the team casting a wide net in its search for Nurse’s replacement. In addition to former NBA head coaches and current assistants, that list includes a EuroLeague coach (Sergio Scariolo), a WNBA coach (Becky Hammon), and a player-turned-TV-analyst (JJ Redick).

It’s hard to draw any conclusions about the Raptors’ search until we see how it ends, but the team at least seems willing to get creative and think outside the box as it seeks its new leader on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see whether Toronto’s eventual choice is one of those outside-the-box candidates or if the club will ultimately play it safe with a former NBA coach or experienced assistant.

As important as the head coaching decision is, it will be quickly overshadowed by the looming free agency of three key contributors. Poeltl is headed for unrestricted free agency, while VanVleet and Trent can join him if they decline player options for 2023/24, which is expected.

On paper, there’s a strong case to bring back all three players. Of the three, Poeltl looks like the best bet to return — Toronto gave up its top-six protected 2024 first-round pick for the veteran center and he capably filled a position that had been a revolving door since the club parted with Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in 2020. It wouldn’t make sense for the Raptors to let him walk, so I expect him to re-sign on a three- or four-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $17-20MM annually.

VanVleet and Trent are trickier cases. VanVleet is a strong defender who was a career 38.2% three-point shooter entering 2022/23, but he wasn’t quite as stout defensively this past season, and his three-point rate dipped to 34.2%.

In theory, the 29-year-old provides the sort of floor spacing and play-making that the Raptors don’t get from many other players on the roster, and he has proven his bona fides in the postseason, playing a rotation role on the championship team in 2019. But VanVleet isn’t particularly efficient from inside the arc and his price tag could approach or even surpass $30MM per year.

Trent, meanwhile, is probably in line for a multiyear contract worth in excess of $20MM annually, given his age (24), as well as his ability to knock down outside shots (.384 career 3PT%) and hold his own on defense. That’s a fair rate, and his skill set is one the Raptors could use, but it’s a substantial price to pay for a player who projects to be a sixth man.

It’s not out of the question for the Raptors to pay Poeltl, VanVleet, and Trent and still sneak below the luxury tax line in 2023/24. But it might require some cost-cutting elsewhere on the roster, with Chris Boucher ($11.75MM) and Porter ($6.3MM) among the potential trade candidates. Boucher and Porter theoretically project to be two of Toronto’s top bench players next season, so it would be a challenge to sign all three free agents, trade Boucher and/or Porter, and find a way to upgrade the second unit.

Of course, one possibility we haven’t discussed yet is the idea of trading a core player. Barnes, 21, probably isn’t going anywhere. A sign-and-trade involving VanVleet or Trent wouldn’t be impossible. But Siakam and Anunoby – who was one of the top trade candidates to stay put at February’s deadline – would be easier to move and are more likely to be the subject of trade rumors this summer.

Of those two, Anunoby is the better bet to be on the move. His cap hit ($18.6MM) is less than half of Siakam’s, which simplifies salary matching, and he’s the player who can slot more easily into any team’s lineup due to his three-and-D skill set. The 25-year-old still hasn’t fully come into his own as an offensive creator, but he has made 38.4% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons and has become one of the NBA’s best, most versatile defenders, with an ability to guard point guards, centers, and anything in between.

Siakam is a talented two-way player in his own right, with a more well-rounded offensive game and impressive versatility on defense. However, he’s more ball-dominant and is quite pricey ($37.9MM), so the list of teams that could conceivably trade for him and then seamlessly incorporate him would be shorter.

Much of the trade speculation surrounding Anunoby has been centered on how many first-round picks Toronto could get back for him, but the Raptors – who don’t control their 2024 first-rounder – have no incentive to load up on draft picks and rebuild.

If Anunoby or another key player is traded, the front office’s goal will likely be to get back multiple young players who are ready to step into rotation roles. For instance, if the Pelicans pursue Anunoby, I’d expect the Raptors to show more interest in the likes of Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy, Herbert Jones, and Jose Alvarado than in New Orleans’ collection of future first-round picks.

Toronto will certainly be open to retooling the roster, but blowing it up probably isn’t on the table this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($7,000,000)
    • Note: Partial guarantee. Young’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Joe Wieskamp ($1,927,896)
    • Note: Wieskamp’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
  • Total: $8,927,896

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall ($4,469,280)
    • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
  • Total: $4,469,280

Extension-Eligible Players

  • OG Anunoby (veteran)
  • Jakob Poeltl (veteran)
  • Pascal Siakam (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
  • Fred VanVleet (veteran)
  • Precious Achiuwa (rookie scale)
  • Malachi Flynn (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Poeltl is only eligible until June 30; Trent would only become eligible if his player option is exercised.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Raptors would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.

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